US elections 2020

Subterms

    More stories

    • 125 Shares99 Views

      in US Politics

      Is capital finally losing faith in Trump? | Adam Tooze

      by

      What has kept Donald Trump in the presidential race is his electoral base. It consists of white men, rural and small-town voters and small-business owners. The big bucks for the campaign come from a coterie of wealthy loyalists. This bloc will stick with Trump whatever he says or does.
      But the attitude of other groups that one might expect to be Trump’s natural supporters, such as big business, financial markets, a lobby like the chamber of commerce – “capital”, in other words – is far less clear cut. If anything, as Joe Biden’s lead has stabilised, so too has their optimism. With an eye to an impending shift of power, the Chamber of Commerce has endorsed a cluster of Democrats in tight House races, provoking outrage from the president. These unexpected alignments point to the scrambling of assumptions that is characteristic of the Trump era.
      The GOP is normally the party of business. The president himself is a businessman. His administration has been stacked with plutocrats, CEOs and lobbyists. It has delivered tax cuts and deregulation. The tax-collecting IRS is a shell of its former self; the Environmental Protection Agency has been gutted, and financial regulations slashed. Trump has packed the courts with judges who will deliver judgments against labour rights, environmentalism protection and business regulation. If, as seemed possible at the beginning of this year, the US economy had stayed on course and the Dems had selected the leftwing Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders as their candidate to run against Trump, the battle lines would have been clearly drawn.
      But that is not what happened. The Democrats selected Biden, a centrist who as senator for Delaware between 1973 and 2009 represented one of the greatest tax havens in the western world during the height of financialisation. And then came the coronavirus shock and the most severe crisis that the US economy has suffered since the second world war.
      The initial response of the Trump administration and Congress was less dysfunctional than one might have expected. The Cares Act was generous both to ordinary Americans and business. But since April the intractable corona-crisis has brought out the worst in Trump. The culture wars unleashed by Black Lives Matter protests have solidified Trump’s base, but they have not widened his appeal. And, as the public mood has shifted, business leaders have remembered the issues that made them leery of Trump in the first place.
      In 2016, Trump struggled to gain endorsements. The Chamber of Commerce was neutral, backing neither Trump nor Clinton. It could not support a Republican candidate who was protectionist on trade, hostile to immigration and openly critical of the Fed chair, Janet Yellen.
      Within hours of Trump’s victory on the night of 8 November 2016, that hesitancy was forgotten. Markets boomed. And Trump has delivered the goods in terms of tax breaks and regulatory giveaways. But on the strategic issues he has been every bit as disruptive as could have been imagined. His trade policy has been the most aggressive since the second world war. Relations with China, the big play of US business since the 1990s, are deteriorating into a cold war. Last year, Trump denounced his own Fed chair, the mild-mannered and cooperative Jerome Powell, suggesting he might be more dangerous than Xi Jinping. As recently as the second week of March the markets were jolted by rumours that Trump might be about to oust Powell. Meanwhile, Trump exploits the immigration issue for rabble-rousing purposes. American business is as keen as ever on cheap labour and the actual flow of newcomers has slowed to a historic low. The real issue – addressing the racist treatment of Latin American workers in the US – remains unaddressed.
      On the climate emergency the attitude of American business has evolved more than one might have expected since 2016. Trump’s boast of reviving the coal industry is evidently absurd. Outright climate denial is no longer the order of the day, even for the likes of Exxon or Chevron. They now favour some kind of carbon tax. The smart money is on renewables as the cheap energy alternative.
      If big business were the commanding political force that its critics sometimes imagine it to be, it would come out openly and state the obvious: Trump is a menace, he needs to go.
      What stops them from doing so? They profess to fear the left. They talk up Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, “the squad” and their socialist agenda. But that is nonsense. The actual threat is on the right.
      First, in the 1990s, there were Pat Buchanan with his anti-globalisation “new nationalism” and Newt Gingrich and the Republican Revolution. Then, in 2008, there was Sarah Palin. In 2010, the Tea Party and the Freedom Caucus. Then there was Steve Bannon and Breitbart. Now there is QAnon. Again and again, the seam in the GOP coalition between big business interests and less aligned forms of nationalism, populism and xenophobia has torn open. The difference in 2020 is that it is the radicalised GOP base that has its man in the White House.
      Having gerrymandered the electoral districts, the GOP doesn’t fear the Democrats but primary congressional selection challenges from its own side. This is what explains the behaviour of Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, over the second round of Covid stimulus.
      It is clear that the US economy desperately needs a second boost. In an election year you would think it would be in the GOP’s interest. Business is pleading for it. But McConnell has not thrown his weight behind Treasury Secretary’s Steven Mnuchin’s effort to cut a deal with Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats. Unemployment may be a disaster, but for the congressional Republicans it is a far bigger threat to be viewed as disloyal by the rightwing base, Trump’s loyalists; and this would happen were he to negotiate a giant government stimulus with Pelosi.
      That leaves the US, once the anchor of the western world, still the world’s largest economy, hanging in the balance. The greatest fear, of course, is of a disputed election, which would shake US institutions to their core. This is the risk that the markets have hedged against by buying the Vix, the so-called fear index. Normally, insuring yourself against future risks is more expensive than against risks in the near term. In 2020, it is the reverse. The price for insurance against volatility in the week after election day on 3 November has surged to all-time highs.
      But there is another, no less serious risk. What if Biden does win the White House, but the GOP retains its grip on the Senate? When Obama came in, in the midst of the 2008-9 financial crisis, he had at least two years with a congressional majority. Given half a chance McConnell would strangle a Biden presidency in its cradle. The American economy, business and its working population would be the first victim.
      There is also a third risk: an Obama rerun, in which the Democrats win majorities but pass a stimulus that addresses none of the fundamental issues in the economy, allowing outrageous inequalities to continue and failing to build the kind of constituency of lifelong Democrat voters that the New Deal was so effective at creating in the 1930s and 40s. This isn’t just a matter of suppressing the next wave of rightwing populism after Trump, but of widening and solidifying the Democratic bloc.
      Nonetheless, assuming a Trump victory is now unlikely, the only safe outcome for the American economy, as well as the American constitution, is a Democrat clean sweep.
      • Adam Tooze is a professor of history at Columbia University More

    • 213 Shares179 Views

      in US Politics

      Ohio and Pennsylvania helped elect Trump. But he betrayed us again and again | Bertram de Souza

      by

      Ever since the 31 August 2019 demise of the (Youngstown) Vindicator, a daily newspaper where I spent 40 years as a reporter, columnist, editorial writer and editorial page editor, I’ve written numerous commentaries and editorials about the presidency of Donald J Trump – all in my head. Sadly, there isn’t an antidote for the death of the 150-year-old news institution, which blazed a journalistic trail in Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
      On 1 November 2016, the Vindicator published an editorial endorsing Hillary Clinton over Trump. While we weren’t enamored by Clinton’s presidential bid, the newspaper’s editorial board believed that on the singularly important issue of leadership, the former secretary of state and US senator from New York stood head and shoulders above Trump, the self-styled billionaire. The real-estate developer wore his racism, chauvinism, religious bigotry and anti-immigrant railings as badges of honor. We warned our readers that a Trump presidency would roll back the progress made toward creating a more perfect union.
      In our editorial endorsing Clinton, we wrote:
      “Trump is a self-absorbed rich man whose attitude toward women, minorities, the disabled and the press makes him clearly unqualified to be the leader of the greatest country on earth. He lacks the temperament, the vision and the understanding of the role the president plays in domestic and international affairs. He does not possess the steady hand of leadership that is demanded in times of upheaval and uncertainty.”
      On 9 November 2016, just days after the unfathomable outcome of the presidential election was announced, I wrote a column with the headline “With Trump victory, America falls for snake-oil salesman.”
      Actually, I slightly missed the mark: President Trump has not been peddling snake oil. Rather, he has been the purveyor of political poison that has undermined the American people’s trust in democracy and shattered America’s reputation around the world as a beacon of freedom, stability and racial pluralism.
      Similarly, Trump’s slash-and-burn politics and his virulent attack on the free legitimate press have served to remind us of his admiration for foreign dictators.
      If the Vindicator were still around today, my argument as the editorial page editor to the owners of the newspaper for endorsing Joe Biden would be this: America is at a crossroads. The re-election of Donald Trump will take this nation down a path of social and economic destruction that will exacerbate the racial and cultural divide he has fed over the last four years. Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus and his denigration of the medical and scientific communities – and his dismissive attitude toward the wearing of masks and social distancing, as evidenced by his “anything goes” campaign rallies – make him unworthy of a second term.
      I would contend that America is in desperate need of an adult and a steady hand at the helm, which it would get with Biden as president.
      Finally, I would argue that Trump lied to the people of the Mahoning Valley. In July 2017, Trump hosted a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, to show his appreciation to the multitude of former Democrats – mostly white, male, blue-collar workers who have fallen victim to the new technology-based globalized economy – who crossed party lines to vote for him.
      Trump promised to rebuild the huge steel-producing factories that once dotted the banks of the Mahoning River, and to bolster the American automobile industry that was a mainstay of the region’s economy for more than 50 years. He told those gathered not to sell their homes and not to move. He said the return of steel-making was imminent, and that he would ensure the expansion of General Motors’ massive car assembly plant in the region.
      Here’s what has actually happened: not one new steel mill has been built in the past four years. And, in March 2019, General Motors closed its compact car-making plant in Lordstown, eliminating 4,500 high-paying jobs. The giant automaker shrugged off the president’s threat of economic retaliation.
      Those are the arguments I am certain we would be making in an editorial endorsing Biden.
      Sadly, we can’t. The Vindicator’s presses have fallen silent.
      Bertram de Souza is a veteran journalist who served in various positions at the Vindicator newspaper in Youngstown, Ohio. His Sunday column was one of the most popular features in the Vindicator, which went out of business in 2019
      Legendary Watergate reporter Bob Woodward will discuss the Trump presidency at a Guardian Live online event on Tuesday 27 October, 7pm GMT. Book tickets here More

    • 150 Shares159 Views

      in US Politics

      Latinos the targets of election disinformation – but activists are fighting back

      by

      Messages that paint Joe Biden as a socialist spreading among conservative Latinos from Cuba and Venezuela. Conspiracy theories on YouTube about Barack Obama in Spanish. Billboards and posters falsely claiming that voting by mail is illegal in Texas.Ahead of election day, Latinos are seeing not just more political ads but also plenty of disinformation.“We usually see this kind of information disorder in locations with a large Latinx population, such as Miami, Houston or Los Angeles,” said Daniel Acosta Ramos, an investigative researcher at the non-profit First Draft.Disinformation as a means of causing confusion, doubt and fear around voting is nothing new during campaigns, but social media make it easier to generate and spread. Latinos in particular are targets because they are a critical voting bloc, especially in battlegrounds such as Florida, Arizona and Texas.In Florida, 20% of eligible voters in 2018 were Hispanic, nearly double the share in 2000, according to Pew Research. In Arizona, Hispanics accounted for 24% of all eligible voters in 2018. Latinos are also politically diverse – for example, Cuban Americans tend to vote Republican, while Puerto Ricans lean Democrat – so dissuading voting in Latino communities, even subtly, could tip an election.There are several types of digital voting disinformation, such as giving the wrong time, place or manner of voting, according to democracy watchdog Common Cause. And during Covid-19, when normal routines are disrupted, online disinformation tactics are “much more believable and have a greater impact today than any other election cycle”, said Jesse Littlewood, vice-president at Common Cause, in a webinar.That has real-world effects. In Arizona, early voting began early this month and “there has already been the feeling of intimidation at the polls when Trump supporters show up at the same time,” said Hector Sanchez Barba, chief executive of Mi Familia Vota, the Latino civic engagement non-profit.Instances of intimidating Latino voters are fueled by false but divisive disinformation that undocumented immigrants are voting illegally. There are also false narratives about vote rigging, conspiracy theories or intimidation, such as telling people immigration authorities will patrol polling stations.US representatives Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida and Joaquín Castro of Texas in September asked the FBI to investigate disinformation targeting Latinos in Florida. Their letter noted a surge in social media posts with “false or misleading information”, as well as disinformation ads in mainstream newspapers and radio.It cited an insert in El Nuevo Herald, a Spanish-language publication of the Miami Herald, that “equated Black Lives Matter protesters with Nazis”. A Florida radio station aired views that a victory by Biden “would mean that the US would fall into a dictatorship led by Jews and Blacks”.Civic and advocacy groups are fighting back. The non-profit Voto Latino encourages its young audience to relay correct information to older relatives who may not have the language or internet skills to find reliable sources. It has also trained its staff to spot online disinformation and report it to the watchdog group Disinfo Defense League. One Voto Latino Instagram post refuted inaccurate statistics about Covid-19 deaths with an explicit FALSE stamp across the image.“One person empowered and motivated to counter misinformation can have a huge impact in their personal networks,” said Danny Turkel, communications manager at Voto Latino. Turkel has heard feedback from young people such as: “‘My abuelita said this and I knew it was wrong. Then I showed her something from Voto Latino.’”Meanwhile, despite the disinformation tactics, there are already signs of strong Latino voter turnout. Voto Latino alone has registered more than 500,000 voters since mid-2019. That’s more than total registrations since the organization was founded in 2004.And Way to Win, a non-profit progressive coalition, noted that there are already “huge levels” of early voting with people sending back ballots. “People are very motivated to vote,” said Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, vice-president at Way to Win.For many outreach efforts, the best way to cut through the disinformation, and reach voters is to focus on relationships. Latinos tend to be more receptive when information comes from trusted local and known sources – such as community organizations, relatives and church leaders.Information from personal contacts is especially important because WhatsApp is popular in Latino communities, even though it is a hotbed for misinformation because its encrypted messages can’t be easily tracked.“The person they want to hear from is a neighbour, pastor, the guy they went to high school with,” said Kristian Ramos, a Democratic strategist with Autonomous Strategies. “They want to know: ‘Are you from my community? Are you from here? Can I trust you?’” More

    • 138 Shares129 Views

      in US Politics

      Our secret weapon for reaching Latino voters? WhatsApp | Xochitl Oseguera

      by

      Every election season we are flooded with headlines that suggest Latinos do not vote, despite being the largest racial or ethnic minority voting in the US presidential election this November. This stereotype has led to Latino voters being lumped together as “unmotivated” and “unengaged”. This year, we are going to show that not only do we vote, but we organize, educate and fill in the gaps where many presidential candidates have fallen short in motivating our communities.
      There are so many different cultures represented by the “Latinx” label, but one thing we all have in common is the undeniable power of the mamá. Debates happen and decisions are made at our mom’s dinner tables, and we have begun to turn this power into political engagement. To channel this energy, mom-led organizations like MamásConPoder are taking a new approach this year: WhatsApp.
      It is estimated that more than half of the US Latinx population uses WhatsApp at least monthly, with more than 32 million users and counting. Not only are an overwhelming number of Latinos on WhatsApp, but they use it far more than other popular voter engagement tools such as Instagram and Twitter. Currently, there are 10 million more Latinos on WhatsApp than on Instagram. In the case of Twitter, the number triples.
      WhatsApp is an invaluable tool in reaching Latinos where we are and sharing educational materials that inform our voting decisions. This direct technological link to such an underserved voting bloc allows activists and community organizers to talk – whether in groups or one-on-one – with inquisitive voters and answer their questions. We can also use WhatsApp to share informative resources including videos, graphics and culturally relevant memes.
      This work is critical, since Latinx communities historically have gone overlooked and unengaged by political campaigns. The apathy from political candidates has been so blatant that ahead of the presidential primary in Texas – a critical state for candidates of both parties – a poll from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement showed that 75% of young Latinos in Texas had not heard from any presidential campaign in the six months before the survey.
      This lack of engagement has been mirrored across the country and across political parties. This is unacceptable. We – mothers, organizers and community leaders – are fighting for the rights we all deserve and stepping in because we know from experience that if we don’t do it ourselves, no one else will.
      Luckily, we are not alone in our commitment to the Latinx voting bloc. Organizations such as Voto Latino are working to register voters through virtual events and rallies. And many state organizers have created coalitions dedicated to getting out the Latinx vote in major states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
      While the issues that bring us to the ballot box might be different, the importance of our votes are the same. Our votes decide whether our loved ones have access to health insurance, housing and jobs that provide enough for their families. We are voting for the protection of immigrant rights and for the impact of the coronavirus and climate change to be taken seriously. We are voting for our livelihoods, our economies and for our right to be treated as equal in this country.
      The work of Latinx organizers has shown that if we come together across cities, states and communities, we can ensure that everyone has the information they need to not only vote, but to feel empowered in their ability to make such an important decision.
      Xochitl Oseguera is the vice-president of MamásConPoder More

    • 163 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump gets last chance to claw back Biden lead at final presidential debate

      by

      Donald Trump has his last chance to move the dial in the fast-approaching US presidential election on Thursday night, when he addresses a large nationwide audience at the final televised presidential debate.
      Trump will face his Democratic rival Joe Biden at 9pm ET at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. The candidates are expected to attract viewership in the tens of millions of Americans for their 90-minute encounter, giving the US president one last crack at shifting a race that has had him trailing the former vice-president for weeks.
      NBC News and its moderator Kristen Welker will be hoping for a more civilized debate than the first, held three weeks ago, which collapsed into acrimony amid almost constant interruptions by Trump. In an attempt to prevent a repetition, the commission on presidential debates on Monday tweaked the format so that the candidates’ microphones are turned off while their opponent is speaking for the opening two minutes of each of six issue segments.
      For the remainder of each of the 15-minute segments, discussion will be open between the two men.
      Trump will be under pressure to soften his display compared with the first debate on 29 September, which was widely censured as bullying. Polls conducted after the debate suggested it damaged his already beleaguered standing in key battleground states such as Florida and Pennsylvania.
      But there were few indications that Trump intends to change tack in the final hours leading up to the Nashville debate. On Monday he denigrated Welker as a “radical left Democrat”, while his campaign has accused the debate commission of being biased towards Biden and objected to the six policy subjects that NBC News has chosen.
      They include three areas on which Trump’s record is especially vulnerable – race in America, Covid-19 and climate change – as well as national security, leadership and America’s families. Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager, protested in a letter to the commission that this debate should have been on foreign policy, territory on which Trump thinks he can prevail following recent breakthrough agreements in the Middle East.
      Trump has also been mired in his by now familiar angry denunciations of figures within his own administration and the media. Instead of making a closing argument to the American people, he has expended valuable political capital calling Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious diseases official, a “disaster” and “idiot”, and storming out of an interview with CBS News’ 60 Minutes.
      The final debate falls at an increasingly anxious time for the Trump re-election campaign. National polls give Biden a steady and clear advantage, such as an 8.5% lead in the Real Clear Politics tracker.
      National polls have limited value. More worrying for the Trump campaign is the fact that Biden has almost three times as much money to spend on the closing days as Trump, and is also showing an edge in key swing states.
      An indication of the relevant concerns of each camp can be gleaned from where the candidates and their top surrogates will be travelling this week. Biden was hunkered down in Nashville for debate prep, suggesting that he sees the event as a chance for him to solidify his frontrunner status.
      In support of Biden, Barack Obama travelled to Philadelphia on Wednesday making an appeal to African American residents to vote. Pennsylvania, which was central to Trump’s victory in 2016, is showing Biden ahead in the polls, but not enough for comfort.
      Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, was in North Carolina on Wednesday, as was Trump himself. North Carolina, a traditional Republican stronghold, is seen as increasingly “purple” in that its changing demographics has put it up for grabs for either party.
      Florida, which Trump must win if he is to have a solid chance at staying in the White House, is widely cast as too close to call.
      Perhaps the most interesting campaign move was that of Vice-President Mike Pence, who was in Ohio. Trump took Ohio by eight percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but polls now suggest it is also too close to call.
      The three scheduled presidential debates in 2020 have shaped up to be among the most volatile in US history. The second debate was cancelled after Trump contracted coronavirus and refused to stage the discussion through video links, resulting in dueling separate town hall meetings on different networks. More

    • 113 Shares99 Views

      in US Politics

      Borat v Trump: can entertainment really affect an election?

      by

      Even with the United States on red alert for pandemic containment, a pernicious phrase has been creeping into the public lexicon at an unprecedented rate of spread. We’ve been beset by a plague known as “the film we need right now”, a noxious concept used to justify and amplify the profiles of nearly a dozen releases over the past year.The run-up to the presidential election has brought about an explosion of topical projects announcing themselves as a noble bulwark against the encroaching threat of another Trump term. And with them, the age-old debate over what any of this actually accomplishes has been reignited. Every time a film introduces itself as the one we need right now, it must first answer the question of whether a film is what we really need. As of late, the arguments have not been especially compelling.A variety of approaches to critique and cinematic styles have been bound together by their shared objective of pushback against the currents of Trumpism, most prominent among them the new documentary Totally Under Control. Alex Gibney’s documentary about the current administration’s grossly incompetent coronavirus response touts itself as filmed in secret, rushed to press in time for election day with the urgency of a breaking news story. Alexandra Pelosi (yes, they’re related) and Showtime have also positioned her new documentary American Selfie: One Nation Shoots Itself in close proximity to the first Tuesday in November, its broad portraiture of a nation in crisis speaking directly to its moment. This week, Brittany Huckabee (no, they’re not related) brings a more granular analysis to the electoral process in her non-fiction film How to Fix a Primary. In each case, time appears to be of the essence.While perhaps less rigorous in terms of reportage, the Borat sequel Subsequent Moviefilm has arrived with a similar sense of gravity, with less than two weeks on the clock before the vote. And though the small-screen series The Comey Rule gave itself a bit more lead time, the Trump critiques nonetheless gesture to the coming reckoning that may or may not result in four more years of his White House. Baldest in its intentions would be the recent reunion of executive-branch drama The West Wing, the promo copy explicitly using the phrase “a call to action” to describe the program’s star-spangled defense of the democratic process. Yet there’s an air of futility to this campaign behind the campaign.On matters like this, I often refer back to the troubling anecdote in which Donald Trump watches the 1988 Jean-Claude Van Damme vehicle Bloodsport on a plane, fast-forwarding through all dialogue so he can get to the violence and destruction. Suffice it to say that many subscribers to the Trumpist worldview are not the most receptive to the swaying powers of art. And that’s when they engage with it in the first place, the vast majority being unlikely to give the time of day to an entertainment so openly trumpeting its liberal bona fides. Those films that make an active effort to reach across the aisle and appeal to a theoretical rightwing viewership often undermine the point they’re making. The Comey Rule often strains to paint Republican higher-ups as helpless objectors against Trump’s bulldozing influence, where complicity didn’t have to be dragged out of anyone. For this seeming reluctance to alienate the unconverted, it’s a weaker work. More

    • 138 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      Trump responds to Barack Obama's speech at Biden-Harris rally – video

      by

      Donald Trump has responded to Barack Obama’s speech at a campaign rally for Joe Biden, saying the former president underestimated him in 2016. “I think the only one, the only one more unhappy than crooked Hillary that night was Barack Hussein Obama,” Trump said. Less than two weeks from the election, Trump’s campaign took him to North Carolina, where he told supporters “I love this particular state, but I might not have come here so often. I’ve been all over your state, you better let me win” More