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    Donald Trump's coronavirus infection is the ultimate 'October surprise' | Andrew Gawthorpe

    This year has already been one of the strangest and most unpredictable election years in living memory. The president faced an impeachment trial. A deadly disease has swept the land, devastating the economy. A supreme court seat opened up and is on course to be filled just days before the election. Hovering over it all is a president who refuses to promise that he will accept the outcome of the election. The traditional “October surprise” was going to have to be huge to get noticed amid all of this.But, being 2020, this year didn’t fail to deliver. Donald Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus. To be sure, this might not strictly qualify as a “surprise” – given the president’s insistence on ignoring even the most basic of precautions against the virus, this development feels as if it was almost inevitable. But now that it has happened, it injects a huge degree of uncertainty not just into the race between Trump and challenger Joe Biden, but also into the stability and safety of the country in the coming weeks.The effect on the campaign depends on the course of the president’s illness, and who else becomes infected. Both Biden and the vice-president, Mike Pence, tested negative today, but that doesn’t mean they’re yet in the clear. Trump himself – who is reportedly experiencing only “mild” symptoms as of Friday night – has been hospitalised at the Walter Reed national military medical center and is receiving experimental drug treatment. There, he might recover quickly, or he might become severely ill. Dangerous symptoms typically develop after a week, and we don’t yet know when Trump was infected.If Trump does become seriously ill, the country will be in uncharted territory. Not since Teddy Roosevelt was shot in 1912 has a candidate entered the final stretch of campaigning while suffering a debilitating ailment. However ill he gets, Trump is likely to insist on remaining on the ballot.Whether he develops a severe case or not, Trump’s diagnosis is unlikely to change the state of the race. Trump might emerge unscathed and attempt to hold up his own experience as evidence that the virus was never that bad after all. But coronavirus is not some abstract issue that Americans learn about only through the media. Nothing the president experiences or says will bring dead relatives back to life or give someone back a job they lost. If Trump falls seriously ill, we can expect voices to be raised on the right in favor of delaying or invalidating the election. A delay would need the approval of Congress, and is almost impossible to imagine. Easier to imagine is that Trump’s illness could be used to further a narrative that the election has been illegitimately stolen from him. Much of the rightwing media is already promoting a conspiracy theory about mail-in ballots, and as a result a large segment of the country is poised to reject the result if Trump loses. If the president is unable to campaign for a while, he will have another excuse to urge his supporters to question the validity of the result.The risks for the country are not just electoral. The presidency is an office with grave responsibilities and awesome powers. Trump has never embraced the serious side of the job, and much of the government has been forced into autopilot, lacking presidential guidance. But that doesn’t mean that Trump can’t give consequential and dangerous orders if he chooses. He commands a nuclear arsenal aimed abroad and a repressive apparatus which he seems to enjoy aiming at home.Coronavirus patients persistently report suffering from brain fog, confusion and difficulty focusing on routine tasks. Any president would hesitate to admit they weren’t up to the job this close to an election, and Trump is far too much of a narcissist to ever do so. That means all of his power will remain in hands which may become even more unstable than usual. Knowing 2020, the real October surprise might be still to come, and we have no idea if the president will be in a fit state to respond to it. Given the president’s narcissism, disregard for science and addiction to lying, we probably won’t know until it’s too late.The carelessness that led Trump to place the country in this situation is just another manifestation of the carelessness with which he has approached every aspect of his job as leader of the nation. He has done incalculable damage, and we should not lose sight of that just because the latest casualty of the Trump era is Trump himself. America, and not just the president, desperately needs to recuperate. For that reason, we should wish the president a speedy recovery, a devastating election defeat and a long and ignominious retirement. Only then can the real healing begin. More

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    Trump going to hospital after Covid diagnosis

    Donald Trump will spend a “few days” at a military hospital after contracting Covid-19, the White House said Friday.Trump was to depart the White House by helicopter late Friday for Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, a White House official said. The official said the visit was precautionary and that Trump would work from the hospital’s presidential suite, which is equipped to allow him to continue his official duties.Earlier on Friday, the White House said Trump remains “fatigued” and had been given an experimental antibody cocktail for the virus that has killed more than 205,000 Americans and spread to the highest reaches of the US government.More details to follow … More

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    Trump in quarantine as Covid diagnosis throws US into fresh upheaval

    America’s leadership has been plunged into extraordinary uncertainty after Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, raising questions over how far the infection has penetrated the heart of government.The US president continued to carry out his duties under quarantine from the White House residence on Friday and was showing “mild symptoms” of Covid-19, an official said. But his election campaigning was on hold.The Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, said late Friday afternoon that he had tested negative for the virus. He continued on the campaign trail, making a speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, while wearing a mask and advocating mask-wearing, something the president has conspicuously equivocated on.Biden had earlier tweeted good wishes to Donald and Melania Trump and in his speech, added: “My wife Jill and I pray they’ll make a quick and full recovery. This is not a matter of politics. It’s a bracing reminder to all of us we have to take this virus seriously.”The virus can take several days to manifest fully and Trump, aged 74 and clinically obese, is medically vulnerable. Should he be incapacitated, Mike Pence, the vice-president, who has tested negative, would take over. A presidential election takes place on 3 November.Trump, who has spent months defying science and downplaying the threat of a virus that has killed more than 205,000 Americans, was also facing criticism for pressing ahead with a campaign fundraising event after learning that a senior aide, Hope Hicks, had tested positive.One attendee said the president came into contact with about 100 people at the fundraiser in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Thursday and “seemed lethargic”, the New York Times reported.Trump has travelled extensively in recent days, to a presidential debate, a campaign rally and the fundraiser. A scramble was under way to test those who have been with him at close quarters. The first lady, Melania Trump, also tested positive and tweeted: “I have mild symptoms but overall feeling good. I am looking forward to a speedy recovery.”On Friday, the Utah senator Mike Lee, who attended the White House event last Saturday where Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett for the supreme court, also said he had tested positive.The White House moved to assuage fears of a constitutional and national security crisis. “The president does have mild symptoms and as we look to try to make sure that not only his health and safety and welfare is good, we continue to look at that for all of the American people,” Mark Meadows, the chief of staff, told reporters.“He continues to be not only in good spirits but very energetic. We’ve talked a number of times this morning, I’ve got the five or six things he tasked me to do, like I do every single morning and he is certainly wanting to make sure we stay engaged.”Meadows, not wearing a face mask, said: “The American people can rest assured that we have a president that is not only on the job, will remain on the job, and I’m optimistic that he’ll have a very quick and speedy recovery.” More

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    Which way will expats vote in the US election? – Australian politics live podcast

    After the first presidential debate airs Katharine Murphy talks to Kent Getsinger, the chair of Democrats Abroad in Australia, about how US expats will be voting. Are voters willing to back Joe Biden? Will the reaction from the debate bring in more votes? How has Covid-19 impacted the foreign voting system?

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    US voters living abroad sue for access to electronic voting

    US voters living outside the country filed a class-action lawsuit this week against election officials in seven states to force them to let voters return completed ballots electronically.The voters cite current mail-processing delays with the US Postal Service, spurred by budget cuts and the pandemic, as the reason for their lawsuit, as well as curtailed mail services in the countries where they live. The voters, residing across Europe, as well as in Thailand, New Zealand, and Singapore, say election officials are abrogating their duties and denying eligible citizens their constitutional right to vote. About 3 million Americans of voting age were living abroad as of 2016, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program.Wednesday’s complaint, lodged against election officials in Georgia, Kentucky, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin – among them, critical swing states – charges the officials with leaving overseas voters with “literally no… reliable way of voting” and calls on them to join 30 other states that currently allow overseas voters to return ballots electronically.The move, however, comes just months after the Department of Homeland Security issued guidelines to states warning them against allowing voters to return completed ballots electronically via fax, email or direct upload, calling it a “high risk” practice that could let malicious actors alter votes and vote totals “at scale” and compromise elections.The guidelines, prepared by the DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (Cisa), were developed in partnership with the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the FBI and other federal agencies, and followed similar warnings over the last two decades from the Department of Defense and the National Academies of Science, who concluded that there was no way to return ballots securely over the internet.“A last-minute change like this for something that is highly controversial to begin with is not a good idea,” says Larry Norden, director of the Election Reform Program at the Brennan Center for Justice, which has worked to improve election administration for more than a decade. “It’s a general principle of election security that you don’t want to be making huge changes in the technology for how people vote right before an election and that’s certainly the case for submitting ballots over the internet.”Ballots sent electronically also can’t be audited since there is no paper backup of the digital documents that election officials can use to verify that the votes weren’t changed before or after the digital ballots were sent.“This lawsuit comes at a time when all election officials are completely overwhelmed by the logistics necessary for the general election,” said Doug Kellner, co-chair of the New York State Board of Elections and a defendant in the lawsuit, in an email to the Guardian. “I will continue to oppose all methods of voting that do not provide for a voter verifiable paper audit trail as required by New York law.”In the states where electronic return is allowed, the Federal Voting Assistance Program, operated by the Department of Defense, offers a service for voters outside the US to email completed ballots to a FVAP email address. FVAP converts those ballots into an electronic fax that is forwarded to the appropriate state.Voters outside the US also have the option of returning their ballot via a paid courier service, diplomatic pouch through their local US embassy or – for military voters – via the military’s mail service. But courier services can be expensive and not all voters live close to a US embassy. A Thailand-based plaintiff in the lawsuit asserted that she returned her ballot via diplomatic pouch two weeks ago but has not received any confirmation. Another Germany-based voter who has used a ballot tracking service many states offer, asserted that he mailed it on 16 September and although it arrived in the US two days later, it sat in a New York mail sorting facility for eight days before moving to a Georgia facility, where it was still waiting to be sorted and sent to the Georgia Board of Elections on 30 September.Data on how many voters outside the US return ballots electronically is incomplete because not all states track or report this information. In 2016, states sent more than 930,000 absentee ballots to voters outside the country, and about 633,000 completed ballots were returned. There’s no comprehensive data indicating how many were returned electronically. Government accountability group Common Cause calculated that at least 100,000 ballots were returned via fax or the internet in 2016 in states that provided data.States are required to send absentee ballots to registered voters living outside the US, at least 45 days before federal elections. If voters don’t receive their ballots on time, they can download a blank federal write-in ballot from a Department of Defense website and fill in the names of the candidates they’re voting for. States differ, however, in how those completed ballots can be returned. More