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Biden supporters mostly back him in 2024 election because they oppose Trump, poll finds
by Evelyn Reynolds 10 June 2024, 13:10
More than half of Joe Biden’s supporters are primarily motivated to cast their vote for the president in order to prevent a return of Donald Trump to the White House, according to a new poll.Opposing Trump is the main reason to back Biden for 54% of the Democratic incumbent’s voters, the new CBS/YouGov poll found, up from 47% in a similar survey conducted in March, which was prior to the presumptive Republican nominee being found guilty of business fraud by a New York jury.A further 27% of Biden voters are supporting the president because they like him – down from 31% in March – while 19% say that they are backing him because he is the Democratic nominee for president.The poll comes as the Biden campaign has ramped up its rhetoric in attacking Trump directly in recent weeks, pointing to the former president’s felony conviction and string of past controversies. Last week, Biden said his predecessor is “reckless and dangerous” for complaining that his New York trial was rigged and claimed that he had been driven “crazy” by his 2020 election loss.The outcome of this year’s presidential election remains in the balance, with the new CBS poll finding Biden and Trump are essentially tied nationally and in key swing states. Trump is on 50% of support among likely voters, and Biden is on 49%, with these figures switched for likely voters in battleground states.Trump has enjoyed an edge over Biden in most polls taken in recent months, although there is some evidence of a slight shift towards the president in the wake of his predecessor’s felony conviction. Trump, who faces three other felony trials for hoarding classified documents and for trying to subvert the 2020 election, is tentatively scheduled to be sentenced in the New York case on 11 July.However, the CBS poll found that 55% of likely voters say that Trump’s conviction is not a factor in their choice for president, with 28% saying it will be a major factor. While Trump has enjoyed a fundraising surge from supporters following the trial, the poll found that just 14% of his voters are backing him because of his conviction, with the vast majority saying it isn’t a factor for them.Eight in 10 Trump voters believe, wrongly, that the former president was charged due to the actions of the Biden administration rather than local prosecutors, the poll found.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionOverall, the main motivating issues for voters are the state of the US economy, inflation, the health of democracy and crime, according to the poll. More
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She was sentenced to prison for voting. Her story is part of a Republican effort to intimidate others
by Evelyn Reynolds 10 June 2024, 13:00
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American psyche: a new series exploring the angst at the heart of the American election
It was the day of the full solar eclipse on the outskirts of Fort Worth last April, and Crystal Mason was trying, just for a second, to relax.She was barefoot, her feet curled up on a big leather La-Z-Boy sofa, eating two of the turkey sandwiches she had prepared for lunch for her family. Her granddaughter Courtney was turning five that weekend, and Mason was getting everything in place for a princess-themed party.Mason, 49, had every reason to celebrate. Just a few weeks earlier, a Texas appeals court had thrown out her five-year prison sentence for voter fraud. Mason had been fighting the charge ever since 2017, when she was arrested for trying to cast a provisional ballot while ineligible to vote. She has always said she did not know she could not vote and would not have tried to cast a ballot had she known.Mason had been convicted and sentenced to five years in prison in 2018.Her case touched a national nerve and became widely understood as an egregious punishment for what could easily be explained as a mistake. As Donald Trump claimed massive voter fraud in the 2016 election, Mason’s case was seen as part of a broader Republican effort to intimidate people from voting. And while Trump escalated claims of fraud through the 2020 election and its aftermath, Mason’s case stood out as a clear example of what an indiscriminate crackdown on voter fraud looks like.View image in fullscreenSince Mason’s arrest, efforts to prosecute voter fraud have only escalated. Tarrant county, where Mason lives, launched its own voter fraud taskforce. Several Republican-led states have created units to investigate and pursue voter fraud charges. One of those units, in Florida, has filed dozens of cases, almost all of which have been against people like Mason, who have prior felony convictions and were confused about their eligibility. In the initial wave of 20 people who were arrested, 14 were Black. One of them was arrested at gunpoint.“I’m certain these prosecutions of individuals with felony convictions instill fear, which I believe is the intended outcome,” said Dawn Harrington, the executive director of the Free Hearts organization, who works to restore voting rights to people with felony convictions. In Tennessee, where Harrington works, she’s seen prosecutions in at least five counties (the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation announced 11 arrests for voter fraud last week, but offered few details on what happened). Taken in context of a historical legacy of voter suppression, Harrington said she believed high-profile prosecutions “serve as stark warnings, showing severe consequences for attempting to vote”.Since being convicted, Mason has remained out of prison on an appeal bond for several years, trying to get her life back on track. She’s lost multiple jobs and had trouble getting new ones because of the bad publicity from her case, and nearly lost her home to foreclosure. The last few years of waiting had felt like having “one foot in, one foot out”, she said. Her kids and her mother said that some nights she would come home and cry.So when she got news of the acquittal in March, Mason, who was getting dinner at a drive-through at the time, broke down crying. It was a moment of vindication – and a sign that she could move on with her life.Then the district attorney announced he was appealing the case.‘I’m the sole breadwinner in my family. I don’t want to go back to prison’People with felony convictions make ripe targets for politicians wanting to send a message about voter fraud.Since the Jim Crow era, states have barred former felons from voting, a practice that kept many African Americans from the polls even after they were constitutionally granted the right to vote.Today, 48 states continue this practice, though the rules vary widely by state. Several – like California, Colorado and New York – allow anyone to vote when they complete their prison sentence, while others require completion of probation and parole. Some states, like Mississippi and Tennessee, permanently bar those convicted of certain crimes from ever voting, while others require repayment of all fines, fees and restitution before someone can vote again.It’s a legacy that continues to have broad implications. As of 2022, an estimated 4.4 million people – 2% of the adult eligible population – couldn’t vote because of a felony conviction, according to a 2022 analysis by the Sentencing Project, a criminal-justice non-profit. Around 5% of voting-age African Americans can’t vote because of a felony conviction – a rate more than three times higher than other Americans.The vast majority of people who can’t vote because of a felony – about 75% – are not in prison – but they are an easy target for perceived voter fraud. Since they are branded criminals, there’s little public sympathy for their cases; those charged often have little interest in speaking out publicly.A single prosecution can also have a big ripple effect. Those who are trying to put their criminal history behind them know that a single misstep can land them back in trouble, so they aren’t willing to take that risk.Since Mason was arrested, there have been a few more high-profile prosecutions of people with felony convictions. In 2021, Texas authorities arrested Hervis Rogers, a Houston man who gained national attention for waiting seven hours in line to vote. The case was eventually thrown out on appeal, but Rogers, who is Black, has since said he will never vote again.View image in fullscreenIn 2022, Pamela Moses, a Black woman in Tennessee, was sentenced to six years in prison for trying to vote while on probation for a felony. Her conviction was later overturned after the Guardian published government documents that were not disclosed to her defense.Perhaps no state has deployed this strategy more aggressively than Florida. In 2022, the state governor, Ron DeSantis, created the office of election crimes and security, a first-of-its-kind agency to crack down on election fraud, which is exceedingly rare. That summer, DeSantis held a televised press conference announcing the arrests of more than 20 people for illegally voting. The press conference announcing the arrest was a spectacle – DeSantis appeared at in a courtroom, flanked by uniformed law enforcement officers. All of the people charged had prior murder or sexual offenses, which made them permanently ineligible to vote in Florida.But after DeSantis’s press conference, it became clear that nearly everyone charged was confused about their eligibility. Florida had made it easier for people with many felony convictions to vote in 2019, and the people the state was targeting appeared to not understand that the change didn’t apply to them. All had received voter registration cards from the state, a sign they took to mean they were eligible to vote.View image in fullscreenBlair Bowie, an attorney at the Campaign Legal Center, specializes in assisting people with felony convictions get their voting rights back. One of the states where she works is Alabama, where a recent change in the law has increased the number of people with felonies who can vote. But Bowie said she had been in contact with people in Alabama who were newly re-enfranchised but had heard about the Florida prosecutions and were wary of trying to register to vote.After initially expressing interest in getting their rights back, some of the people she had spoken to told her it wasn’t worth it.“I’m the sole breadwinner in my family. I can’t do this,” they told her. “I don’t want to go back to prison.”‘You can hardly talk to Crystal without her trying to sign someone up to vote’Mason wasn’t especially political in 2016: she voted because her mother was nagging her to. Until recently, she compared voting to taking a shower after playing outside before you go to bed. “It’s just something you’re supposed to do.”When she showed up at her polling station in 2016, a church near her home, election workers couldn’t find her name on the list of registered voters, so they offered her a chance to vote with a provisional ballot, intended for exactly that kind of circumstance.If a voter shows up at the polls and there’s a question about their eligibility, they can cast a provisional vote that is only counted if officials later confirm the voter is eligible to cast a ballot. Mason filled out the affidavit that went along with the ballot, taking care to ensure that all of the information exactly matched what was on her driver’s license.The poll workers had no reason to question her eligibility – they were her neighbors and knew who she was. They knew that she wasn’t lying about her identity and presented a valid Texas driver’s license.It was only after she left that Jarrod Streibich, a high school teenager volunteering in his first election, said he remembered that Mason had recently returned home from federal prison for a tax felony.Texas, like several other states, doesn’t allow someone to vote until they have entirely finished their criminal sentence, including probation or parole. Streibich alerted the head poll worker, Karl Diederich, who lived across the street from Mason. Diederich, who was involved with the local Republican party, wasn’t sure whom to call, but he would later contact the local district attorney.Mason was one of about 4,000 people in Tarrant county who cast a provisional ballot in 2016. Several months later, she would become the only one to be indicted for it. In February 2017, she was placed in handcuffs at the federal courthouse in downtown Dallas during a routine check-in with her supervised release officer.View image in fullscreenSince she was arrested for voter fraud, Mason said she went from being someone who didn’t want to talk about politics to starting an organization focused on combating voter suppression.In 2022, she opened a rally for Beto O’Rourke, who was running for governor. Texas lawmakers passed a law designed to make it harder for someone like Mason to be prosecuted for voter fraud. Four of her children and several other family members are volunteer deputy voter registrars in Texas and are eligible to sign people up to vote.“You can hardly talk to Crystal Mason for five minutes without her trying to sign someone up to vote,” Alison Grinter, one of her attorneys, said in March.But there was never really any doubt that Crystal Mason’s case was about much more than Crystal Mason. Prosecutors said it themselves at her trial.“The voting system in America is second to none. It is sacred to Americans, and she has violated the sanctity of this process,” Matthew Smid, the prosecutor during Mason’s case, said during sentencing at her trial. “We respectfully request that this court send a message to illegal voters that if you’re going to violate the sanctity of this system, it will not be tolerated and [you] will pay the consequences.”That language set off alarm bells for Kim Cole, another of Mason’s lawyers. Voter fraud in the US is extremely rare; many cases of illegal voting often involve people who simply were confused about their eligibility to vote. During the Jim Crow era, lawmakers often invoked the need to preserve the purity of the ballot box to justify racist restrictions on voting.“It’s not even subtle,” Cole said. “I think it did intimidate people.”‘There’s no way I would have ever taken a plea’It would have been easy enough for Mason to make the case go away. Before she went to trial in 2018, prosecutors offered her the chance to plead guilty and receive 10 years of probation. Many in her position accept these kinds of offers; it’s part of why prosecutors often target people with felony convictions – those who are charged are willing to plead guilty quickly, giving prosecutors a conviction they can tout.But Mason believed she hadn’t done anything wrong. And since she was already on supervised release, she risked going back to federal prison if she pleaded guilty to the voting crime. “There’s no way I would have ever taken a plea,” she said. “If I’m pleading, that means I’m leaving my kids. And I could never – me being a mom – I could never just leave my kids.”So on 28 March 2018, Mason and her entire family showed up at the criminal courthouse in downtown Fort Worth. Mason’s lawyer had assured her that it would be an “open and closed” case and so Mason had only taken one day off from her new job (she had lost her old one when she was arrested).View image in fullscreenThe trial started off pretty well. The first witness was Kenneth Mays, a supervisor in the supervised release office. He testified that no one had told Mason she couldn’t vote.But when Diederich and Streibich took the stand, things went south. Diederich, a navy veteran who had recently returned from Afghanistan, testified that he had instructed Mason to read a lengthy disclaimer on the provisional affidavit before she filled it out. Buried in the long paragraph is language requiring anyone filling out the form to affirm that if they have been convicted of a felony, they have completed “all of my punishment, including any term of incarceration, parole, and supervision”.Diederich testified that he couldn’t say for sure whether Mason read the warning, but that it appeared that she did and he wouldn’t have let her vote if he didn’t think she had. Streibich, just a few weeks from leaving for the air force academy, testified that he saw Mason going over the form with her finger.When Mason took the stand, it hardly seemed to matter what she said. She said she had never even seen Diederich at the polls and never read the affidavit. Had anyone told her she wasn’t eligible, she said, she wouldn’t have voted. “Why would I dare jeopardize losing a good job, saving my house, and leaving my kids again and missing my son from graduating from high school this year as well as going to college on a football scholarship? I wouldn’t dare do that,” she said.But Smid, the prosecutor, focused on undermining her credibility. Who should the judge believe? Diederich, the navy veteran, and Streibich, who was committed to military service, or Mason, who had old convictions for tax fraud and perjury? He dismissed the idea she wouldn’t commit a crime because she wanted to support her family. “You were not thinking about them when you defrauded the United States government of $4.2m, were you?” Smid said. (Mason, a former tax preparer, was originally convicted in 2012 on charges related to inflating tax refunds for clients and was ordered to pay $4.2m in restitution.)Gonzalez convicted her and sentenced her to five years in prison. Mason was in disbelief.News outlets started to pick up on the case. Her conviction came after another woman in Tarrant county, a legal non-citizen, had been sentenced to seven years in prison for also mistakenly voting. Around the same time, there was a white justice of the peace in the same county who pleaded guilty to forging signatures on a ballot but was sentenced to probation and no prison time.The disparity between the sentences for the two women of color and a white elected official highlighted the blunt racial disparities that seemed to be at play. Still, Mason didn’t really want to speak out about the case. “My motto has always been ‘my business is not show business’,” she said. That, and she wanted to keep her job.View image in fullscreenThat all changed a few months later. Because Mason was still on supervised release while she had been convicted of the state crime, she was sent back to federal prison for an additional 10 months.This was an especially difficult time for Mason. When she had gotten out of prison the first time, she had vowed never to go back and had pledged to take care of her family.Calling her the breadwinner doesn’t quite capture what she means to her family. She has three children of her own, and raised four of her brother’s children. She also has nine grandchildren. Until fairly recently, they all lived with her in her big house.Her 25-year-old niece, Jasmine Jones, compared her to the cornerstone of a building. Without her, she said, everything would crumble. Her son Sanford, whom she calls Bobo, agreed. “She’s the boss of the company,” he said. “She provides all of the kids with the things they need.”When she went back to federal prison at the end of 2018, she trained Taylor, her daughter, on how to manage the family’s finances. At the time, Taylor had not even ever paid a phone bill. Her teenage son left college during his freshman year on a football scholarship, returning home to help with the finances. The family almost lost their big house on the outskirts of Fort Worth – the one she and her ex-husband purchased more than a decade ago to be a home base for their family – to foreclosure.“They don’t know the strain it took on our family,” Taylor said on the afternoon of the eclipse, keeping an eye on her three-year-old son, Karter, who was running around nearby.Back in federal prison, Mason started reflecting on her case. She knew the judge who convicted and sentenced her was elected by voters, and she began to understand the power of one vote – and why someone would want to limit hers.She decided that she would start an organization and speak out about her case, seeking to educate people who had felony convictions about their right to vote. “I wasn’t able to register people to vote, but I was able to speak and tell people and share my story,” she said. “I had my kids and family registering people to vote.”After she left prison, she started an organization called Crystal Mason The Fight. She and her children go to fairs and other events to register people to vote. Recently, Mason said, she was at an Autozone. She began speaking with the man who was helping her and asked him if he was registered to vote. He said he wasn’t because he had a felony conviction seven or eight years ago. Mason said he was surprised to learn there was a possibility that he could vote again if he was done with his sentence.“We need to be educated from state to state,” Mason said. “That’s what I want to do – I want to outreach and reach out to people that are eligible to vote and let them know they have that right to vote.”‘My heart is heavy’The district attorney’s decision to appeal Mason’s case in April was an odd one.In 2020, the second court of criminal appeals had given prosecutors a major victory when it upheld Mason’s conviction. The panel said that what mattered was not whether Mason knew she was ineligible to vote, but whether she was on supervised release.“Contrary to Mason’s assertion, the fact that she did not know she was legally ineligible to vote was irrelevant to her prosecution,” Justice Wade Birdwell wrote for the panel. Even though Mason may not have known for sure whether she could vote, the fact that she signed anyway showed that she affirmed her eligibility.In 2022, the Texas court of criminal appeals, the highest court in Texas, reversed that decision – the first legal victory for Mason in five years. The court said there was not enough evidence that Mason “actually realized” she could not vote, prompting her acquittal two years later in March.View image in fullscreenMason’s lawyers weren’t really expecting an appeal. The Texas court of criminal appeals had already signaled its skepticism of the case. The original prosecutor who indicted Mason, a Republican named Sharen Wilson, had retired and it wasn’t clear that the new district attorney, Republican Phil Sorrels, would want to get tied up in the case. “This is not the kind of opinion you appeal,” Grinter, Mason’s attorney, said in April.A Sorrels spokeswoman did not respond to an interview request. But when he appealed the decision in April, he said in a statement that the appellate court had wrongly weighed the evidence in Mason’s favor. On 8 May, he said publicly that he was appealing the case to send a message.“I want would-be illegal voters to know that we’re watching,” Sorrells said. “We’ll follow the law and we would prosecute illegal voting,” he told county commissioners at a briefing that Mason attended, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.In 2022, Mason decided to vote again. Her federal supervised release had expired, and since the illegal voting charge was still under appeal, her lawyers told her she could vote. “It was more personal, and more important to me,” she said. Mason said she had met a woman, a local county commissioner, who had told her her story inspired her to run for office.Cole, one of Mason’s lawyers, praised her client’s political transformation, but also said it was an unlikely story. “Can you imagine the expense that someone would have had to bear had they just been doing this on their own?” she said. “You just don’t have the muscle to fight.”A few weeks later, when the state announced it was appealing the case, Mason expressed exasperation in a text message. “I just don’t understand,” she wrote.“My heart is very, very heavy right now,” she said. “I’m truly sadden[ed] at this moment that the state in this upcoming election is still sending a message.”:root{–ap-border-color: rgba(255,255,255,.2);–ap-background-blue: #052962;–ap-background-black: #1a1a1a}.furniture-wrapper #headline h1,[data-layout=InteractiveLayout] .furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=headline] h1,.furniture-wrapper .headline h1{font-size:32px;line-height:1}@media (min-width: 71.25em){.furniture-wrapper #headline h1,[data-layout=InteractiveLayout] .furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=headline] h1,.furniture-wrapper .headline h1{font-size:48px}}.gu-janky-word{display:inline-block;margin-right:.35em}.gu-janky-letter{display:inline-block}nav >div{border-bottom:1px solid var(–ap-border-color)}.furniture-wrapper{background-image:linear-gradient(180deg,var(–ap-background-blue),var(–ap-background-black) 40%);display:grid;grid-template-areas:”title” “headline” “main-image” “standfirst” “lines” “meta”;–byline-anchor: #dcdcdc}.furniture-wrapper:after,.furniture-wrapper:before{background-image:linear-gradient(180deg,var(–ap-background-blue),var(–ap-background-black) 40%);border-color:#fff3!important}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title]{padding-top:10px;margin-bottom:-15px;z-index:2}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title] span:nth-of-type(2){display:none}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title] a{margin-right:0}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title] img{height:100%;width:190px}@media (min-width: 61.25em){.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title]{margin-bottom:0}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title] img{width:150px}}.furniture-wrapper #headline,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=headline],.furniture-wrapper .headline{border-color:var(–ap-border-color)!important}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta]{–new-pillar-colour: #dcdcdc}.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] details{–dateline: #97999e}article .furniture-wrapper figure{grid-area:main-image;width:auto!important}article .furniture-wrapper figure img{margin:0 auto;max-width:380px;width:70%}@media (min-width: 61.25em){article .furniture-wrapper figure img{max-width:100%;width:100%}}@media (min-width: 61.25em){article .furniture-wrapper figure{margin-top:0!important}}@media (min-width: 71.25em){article .furniture-wrapper figure{grid-area:1/8/4/14!important}}@media (min-width: 81.25em){article .furniture-wrapper figure{grid-area:1/10/4/16!important}}#maincontent h2,.prose h2{max-width:620px;font-weight:700;margin-top:80px;margin-bottom:5px;position:relative;–rotate-h2: 1deg}#maincontent h2:before,.prose h2:before{content:””;background-image:linear-gradient(90deg,var(–ap-background-blue),var(–ap-background-black));height:15px;width:100%;position:absolute;top:-15px;left:0;transform:rotate(var(–rotate-h2))}#maincontent blockquote,.prose blockquote{font-size:18px;margin:20px 0;font-weight:700}body.ios .furniture-wrapper figure.element-image img,body.android .furniture-wrapper figure.element-image img{margin:0 auto;width:70%!important}body.ios #meta span[data-icon],body.android #meta span[data-icon]{color:#ff5943!important}body.ios #meta span[data-icon]:before,body.android #meta span[data-icon]:before{color:#1a1a1a!important}body.ios .prose p+h2,body.android .prose p+h2{margin:80px 0 15px;line-height:1.5}body.ios .prose p+h2:before,body.android .prose p+h2:before{top:-20px}body.ios .prose blockquote:before,body.android .prose blockquote:before{color:#ff5943}body.ios .content__labels,body.android .content__labels{margin-bottom:-17px}body.ios .content__labels img,body.android .content__labels img{width:190px} More
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Trump to hold Las Vegas rally in burning heat with extra medics and water
by Evelyn Reynolds 9 June 2024, 17:38
Donald Trump’s campaign is hiring extra medics, loading up on fans and water bottles and allowing supporters to carry umbrellas to an outdoor rally on Sunday in Las Vegas, where temperatures are expected to exceed 100F (38C).The former president is returning to Nevada, one of the top battleground states in the November election, for his second rally since he was found guilty in a hush-money scandal. The unprecedented conviction of a US president, current or former, has juiced Trump’s fundraising and galvanized his supporters, but it remains to be seen whether it will sway swing voters.Temperatures in the south-west have cooled since reaching historic highs late last week, but remain above normal for this time of year and are expected to top 100F by the time Trump is scheduled to begin speaking around noon. His rally is at a park with little shade next to the airport.Campaign organizers say they will have ample water bottles to hand out to attendees and that cooling tents will be placed throughout the venue. Misting fans will be given out.The campaign has paid for additional emergency medical services to be on site in the case of emergency. The US Secret Service will be making an exception to allow people to bring in personal water bottles and umbrellas.During a Trump rally in Arizona on Thursday, the Phoenix police department said 11 people were transported to hospitals, treated and released for heat exhaustion. Many of Trump’s supporters waited in line for hours and some were unable to get inside before the venue reached capacity. The temperature reached a record 113F (45C) that day.Trump’s Nevada rally, his third in the state this year, comes on the tail end of a western swing that included several high-dollar fundraisers where he was expected to rake in millions of dollars.Hillary Clinton won Nevada in 2016 as did Joe Biden in 2020, but Nevada was the only battleground state where Trump did better against Biden than Clinton. In the 2022 midterms, Nevada’s governor, Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, was the only incumbent governor who did not win re-election.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump hopes his strength among working-class voters and growing interest from Latinos will push him to victory in the state. More
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Kamala Harris on Trump’s conviction: ‘Cheaters don’t like getting caught’
by Evelyn Reynolds 9 June 2024, 15:35
Donald Trump has assailed the validity of his conviction in the criminal case involving hush-money payments to an adult film actor because “cheaters don’t like getting caught,” Kamala Harris said during a speech on Saturday.“Simply put, Donald Trump thinks he is above the law,” the vice-president told an audience at a dinner hosted by the Michigan state Democratic party. “This should be disqualifying for anyone who wants to be president of the United States.”Harris’s remarks in Detroit about the presumptive Republican nominee for November’s presidential election came after the former president has repeatedly disparaged the New York state judge who oversaw the trial culminating in Trump’s being found guilty on 30 May.Trump has tried to persuade the electorate into believing that the judge, Juan Merchan, is unfair and somehow conspiring with the Joe Biden White House to which Harris belongs, even though it was state-level prosecutors – not federal ones – who brought the recently concluded case against him.Trump’s rhetoric that his criminal trial in New York was “rigged” echoed his supporters’ justification for their attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, a desperate but failed attempt to keep him in power after his electoral defeat to Biden weeks earlier, Harris suggested on Saturday. She also alluded to how Trump and his allies have openly boasted about exacting retribution against those who are perceived to have crossed the former president and some of his aides.“He suggests the case could be a ‘breaking point’ for his supporters, hinting at violence. He spreads lies that our administration is controlling this case when everyone knows it was a state prosecution. And he says that he will use a second term for revenge,” Harris said.“You know why he complains? Because the reality is cheaters don’t like getting caught.”While there was a generally friendly audience for her comments about Trump on Saturday, she was heckled by a pro-Palestinian protester demonstrating against the Biden administration’s response to Israel’s ongoing military strikes on Gaza. Officials quickly removed the heckler as the vice-president said, “I value and respect your voice – but I’m speaking right now,” the local television station WJBK reported.That encounter wasn’t the only time over the weekend that Biden’s administration was reminded of public dissatisfaction with its handling of the war in Gaza, which the Israeli military launched in response to Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel.Thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered outside the White House on Saturday. Though footage posted to social media showed police using pepper spray on demonstrators, the Republican US senator Tom Cotton – a vocal, far-right critic of the Biden administration – appeared on Sunday on Fox News and argued that the president goes too easy on such protests.“Joe Biden thinks that these pro-Hamas, anti-American lunatics should be guiding American policy towards Israel,” Cotton said.Harris took aim at Trump on Saturday as the former president and Biden are essentially tied nationally as well as in key battleground states, at least according to a new poll by CBS News.That stalemate exists even after Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush-money payments delivered to Stormy Daniels, the adult entertainer who has alleged an extramarital sexual encounter with the Republican before he successfully ran for the Oval Office.He still faces 54 other pending criminal charges accusing him of 2020 election interference as well as improper retention of classified materials after his presidency, allegations contained in two federal prosecutions and one state case in Georgia.In civil court, Trump has been grappling with multimillion-dollar penalties for business practices deemed fraudulent as well as a rape accusation that a judge has determined to be substantially true.Republicans, meanwhile, have sought to embarrass Biden over the fact that his son, Hunter, had spent the previous several days standing trial on federal gun charges in Delaware. More
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Could RFK swing enough votes from Trump and Biden to decide the election?
by Evelyn Reynolds 9 June 2024, 13:00
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View image in fullscreenThe Kennedy name looms large over American politics. John F Kennedy, despite serving only twoand a half years as president before his assassination, is frequently ranked among the top 10 US leaders; his brother, Robert F Kennedy, seemed set for his own spell in the White House until he too was killed in 1968.Enter: Robert F Kennedy Jr, nephew of the former, son of the latter and increasingly, persona non grata of the surviving Kennedy clan.Part-time environmental lawyer, full-time conspiracy theorist, an animal enthusiast who owned a pet lion at his elite boarding school and who, in his telling, had part of his brain eaten by a worm, Kennedy entered the 2024 presidential race as a Democrat running against Biden, before switching to an independent in October last year. The 70-year-old, who also has a history of associating with white supremacists, is an unknown quantity in the 2024 election race, with both parties worried about the havoc he could wreak.Five months out from perhaps the most consequential election in recent US history, Biden and Trump continue to be unpopular with the American public. Kennedy’s ability to be neither of those men, and his willingness to lean into his family name, have positioned him as a spanner in the works of American democracy.Both Democrats and Republicans fear that Kennedy, who is polling at about 10% nationally, could pull votes away from their men. Even a few Biden or Trump voters hopping on to the Kennedy train could be enough to influence what is expected to be a tight race. In an indication of the threat he poses, Trump has gone from praising Kennedy as a “very smart person” a year ago to recently posting a four-minute video attacking him on Truth Social.Plenty of people try to be president. In 2020 alone, 1,212 people filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission saying they were running for the White House. Yet it is Kennedy who is drawing all the coverage.Would he be getting as much attention – and pulling in millions of dollars in donations, some of it from former Trump supporters – if he had a different last name? Probably not.The world was introduced to RFK Jr early. His father, a supporter of Israel, was killed by Sirhan Bishara Sirhan, a Palestinian-Jordanian man, as Kennedy Sr campaigned for president in Los Angeles. A 14-year-old Kennedy Jr was a pallbearer at his funeral: black and white photos from the funeral show a shaggy-haired Kennedy at the head of the coffin, looking numb and out of place among a crowd of grown men.Kennedy was the third of 11 children (the Kennedys were prodigious breeders), born to his father and Ethel Kennedy – a Chicago-born daughter of a coal magnate who remained a public presence way into the 1990s. Ethel made an appearance on the sitcom Cheers and was even named a tough tennis opponent in a Seinfeld episode.If Kennedy benefited from the family name, he benefited from the family wealth, too. Kennedy was raised in Hyannis Port, Massachusetts, at the Kennedy compound – where his mother lives to this day.He studied at Millbrook school, a private boarding school in New York. At Millbrook, Kennedy was not universally liked, Jerry Oppenheimer wrote in a biography of the future presidential candidate.“[Kennedy] was viewed by some fellow students as egotistical and irresponsible for strutting around the campus and on the sidelines at home football games with a potentially dangerous young lion on a leash,” Oppenheimer wrote.Millbrook’s headmaster eventually banished the lion, who was called Toto, from campus, and the then 130lb big cat went to live at a safari park in Florida.Other interests, Oppenheimer reported, included “getting stoned” and, oddly, falconry. Kennedy was in a gang too: the Hyannis Port Terrors, who apparently “ran around and stole alcohol” during the summer months.(Kennedy’s parading around with a lion had apparently been forgiven by 1998: that year, he was the commencement speaker at the school.)His teenage years were difficult. In an interview in 2023, Kennedy said he started taking heroin when he was 15 years old, saying he “had a big empty hole inside”, and in 1983, when he was 29, Kennedy was charged with heroin possession after he “became ill”, the New York Times reported, “in the washroom of an airliner” which stopped in Rapid City, South Dakota.“All of a sudden everybody knew I was a drug addict and it gave me the freedom to get help,” Kennedy told an interviewer. “I could just be who I was and be honest.”Kennedy had hidden his addiction while graduating from Harvard University and earning a law degree from Pace University in New York, and after he had completed two years’ probation as a result of the heroin charge, he embarked on a career in environmental law.He worked for Riverkeeper, an organization which protects New York’s Hudson River, and sued polluters in an effort to protect waterways; his work earned him a place on the front cover of New York Magazine in 1995, which described him as “The Kennedy who matters”.But Kennedy – who during his campaign has criticized Biden for overspending on environmental issues – would become better known in the US as a conspiracy theorist.Kennedy spent years claiming, loudly and wrongly, that vaccines cause autism, while in 2023 alone Kennedy stated that wifi causes “leaky brain”, linked antidepressants to school shootings and said that chemicals in water were making children transgender.His history of embracing conspiracy theories meant Covid-19 was a perfect storm for Kennedy. His already-existing anti-vaccine group Children’s Health Defense became “an influential force that spreads false and misleading information”, Associated Press reported, with the group publishing books that falsely claim the Covid-19 vaccine caused a spike in deaths. A report in the Journal of Medical Internet Research in 2022 named Kennedy’s Twitter account as “the top superspreader” of misinformation about Covid-19.Kennedy was particularly criticized for a speech he gave at a rally against mandatory Covid vaccines in Washington in January 2022. Standing at the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, Kennedy told an animated crowd that unnamed figures were trying to control the American population in a way never seen before.“Even in Hitler’s Germany, you could cross the Alps into Switzerland, you could hide in the attic like Anne Frank did,” Kennedy said.“Today the mechanisms are being put in place that will make it so none of us can run, none of us can hide.”The remarks caused uproar, not least from the Auschwitz museum, which tweeted: “Exploiting of the tragedy of people who suffered, were humiliated, tortured & murdered by the totalitarian regime of Nazi Germany – including children like Anne Frank – in a debate about vaccines & limitations during global pandemic is a sad symptom of moral & intellectual decay.”Kennedy later apologized for saying that people who wished to remain unvaccinated had fewer freedoms than Anne Frank. But he continued to dabble in Covid-19 misinformation, writing in a 2021 book that Anthony Fauci, the top US public health expert during the pandemic, had conspired with Bill Gates to suppress alternative medicine treatments for Covid-19.View image in fullscreenGiven his history, Kennedy’s declaration, as he announced his run for the Democratic presidential nomination in April 2023, that he was “not an ideal presidential candidate for normal times”, could seem like an understatement. But people barely had a chance to get to grips with his candidacy before, in October, he scrapped the idea of running as a Democrat, and announced an independent campaign, this time claiming that the “two-party establishment” was “leading us all over a cliff”.As an independent choice, Kennedy represents a still quite old, but not as old as Biden or Trump, candidate. He would be 71 by the time he took office, but Kennedy presents as younger than his two rivals: less jowly, more robust and with a more convincing head of hair. At a campaign stop in June 2023, he stripped to the waist to lift some weights at a gym in Los Angeles, revealing a fairly impressive physique.On the campaign trial, Kennedy looks the part: that thick silver hair, those big white teeth, that perma-tan. His voice, then, comes as a surprise. Kennedy has a strained, halting tone, owing to spasmodic dysphonia, a neurological condition which affects his voice.That condition is far from Kennedy’s only brush with ill health. Earlier this year, the New York Times reported on a deposition Kennedy had given during his divorce from his second wife, Mary Kathleen Richardson Kennedy. In the deposition, given in 2012, Kennedy said he had experienced memory loss, which “was caused by a worm that got into my brain and ate a portion of it and then died”.“I have cognitive problems, clearly,” Kennedy said. “I have short-term memory loss, and I have longer-term memory loss that affects me.”After the Times article was published, Kennedy tweeted that he was willing “to eat 5 more brain worms and still beat President Trump and President Biden in a debate”.Richardson Kennedy died by suicide in 2012, leaving behind her four children with Kennedy. Before Richardson Kennedy, Kennedy had two children with his first wife, Emily Black, one of whom is called Robert F Kennedy III. In 2014, Kennedy married Cheryl Hines, an actor best known for playing Larry David’s wife in Curb Your Enthusiasm. The pair live in Los Angeles.Hines, 58, has sought to distance herself from her husband’s campaign. She said in an interview with Fox News earlier this year that she did not always agree with Kennedy’s politics: “We’ve learned to talk through it. Talk it out. Listen to each other. Sometimes, agree to disagree or say: ‘Oh, I’m going to think about that and I hear what you’re saying,’ or: ‘I don’t like the way you’re saying it. I wish you’d say it in a different way.’”The fear for Biden and Trump is that Kennedy could be a Ralph Nader figure. Nader ran as the Green party candidate in the 2000 presidential election, and some Democrats still believe that it was his performance in Florida that swung the election away from Al Gore and towards George W Bush.Early predictions suggested Kennedy – as a scion of the most famous Democratic family in history – would draw support from Biden. Trump and other Republicans certainly seemed to think so, and spent months extolling his virtues – there was even suggestions among rightwing media that Kennedy could be a good vice-president to Trump.But conservatives might come to regret pumping him up. Polls have shown that Trump supporters are more drawn to Kennedy – with his vaccine skepticism and hardline policies on the border particularly popular – than Biden.Republican donors have flocked to Kennedy, too. Timothy Mellon, a Wyoming-based billionaire who has previously donated to groups supporting Trump, has given $25m to the Kennedy campaign, while Rolling Stone reported that other donors include regular Republican donors like John Schnatter, the disgraced former CEO of Papa John’s Pizza, and a financier who briefly supported Ron DeSantis’s bid for the Republican nomination.The support is enough for Kennedy to potentially make a nuisance of himself in terms of pulling votes away from Biden or Trump. But that doesn’t mean Kennedy is popular.Like Biden and Trump, more people dislike Kennedy than like him. According to FiveThirtyEight, 42% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Kennedy, with just 35% seeing him favorably: a favorability rating of -7%. (Trump has a favorability of -12%, Biden -16%.)He’s a bit less unpopular than his two main opponents, then, which can only be a good thing. But Kennedy has already shown himself to be a problematic figure on the campaign trail.Last July, he caused controversy when a video recording showed him falsely claiming that the Covid-19 virus had been “ethnically targeted” at Caucasians and Black people, while Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people had greater immunity.Members of the Kennedy family roundly criticized the candidate after his remarks were made public: Jack Schlossberg, a grandson of President Kennedy, called his cousin’s campaign “an embarrassment” in a video.Other family members have made it clear that they oppose their namesake’s candidacy. In April, more than a dozen members of the Kennedy family, including six of Kennedy’s siblings, endorsed Biden for president.That should be galling for Kennedy, who on the campaign trail repeatedly mentions his family history. His Kennedy 2024 website frequently references his uncle, who despite his short term ranked as the ninth best president in a 2022 Siena College poll of historians, and 10th in a similar survey of 154 historians and presidential experts this year. (Biden was placed 14th, Trump came last.)Kennedy’s uncle president may even have influenced his decision to run as an independent. In a speech in Maryland in 1958, when he was still a senator and was two years away from becoming the 35th president of the US, John F Kennedy said:“Let us not despair but act. Let us not seek the Republican answer or the Democratic answer but the right answer. Let us not seek to fix the blame for the past: let us accept our own responsibility for the future.”Kennedy is hoping that Americans will agree with that quote – or at least the bit about not seeking Republican or Democratic answers – come November. More
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Is the US economy doing well? It depends if you ask a Democrat or a Republican
by Evelyn Reynolds 9 June 2024, 12:00
When he delivered his State of the Union address in March, Joe Biden framed the state of the American economy as a true success story, pointing to the historically low unemployment rate and falling inflation as signs of the country’s robust recovery from the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.“I inherited an economy that was on the brink. Now, our economy is literally the envy of the world,” the US president said. “And it takes time, but the American people are beginning to feel it.”As Biden frequently boasts, 15m jobs have been created since he took office, and the unemployment rate now stands at 4% after 41 consecutive months of job gains, following the longest stretch of sub-4% unemployment since the 1960s. Inflation has also cooled, after the annual consumer price index hit a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Stock markets have hit new highs, with the Dow Jones industrial average passing 40,000 points for the first time ever. The International Monetary Fund predicted last month that the US economy was on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 nation this year.But so far, many Americans are not buying what Biden is selling. According to a Harris poll conducted for the Guardian last month, 56% of Americans wrongly believe that the US economy is in a recession, even though the country’s GDP has grown in recent months. Republicans were more likely to hold that belief, with 67% of them saying the economy is in a recession compared with 49% of Democrats and 53% of independents.The survey continued a trend of Republicans reporting higher levels of pessimism about the nation’s finances since Biden took office. But the relationship between political identity and consumer sentiment has actually been documented for decades, intensifying alongside partisanship in recent years.This political bias offers a partial – although far from complete – explanation for Americans’ persistently dour opinions of the nation’s finances. In recent weeks, the Guardian has dispatched reporters to key swing counties in battleground states, and voters representing a wide array of political views expressed disappointment with the higher cost of living.As LeMario Brown, a former city council member in Fort Valley, Georgia, and local pecan farmer, said: “It doesn’t matter if we’re Republican or Democrat, we all got to eat.”With less than five months left before election day, Biden must find a way to break through the gloom and sell his vision of economic success.A partisan splitThe partisan skew in perceptions of the economy dates back at least to the Reagan administration, as the University of Michigan’s national consumer confidence data shows. With a Republican in the White House, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is strong, and the same principle applies when a Democrat takes office.Though the correlation between political identity and consumer sentiment has long been recognized by economists, it appears to have grown stronger in recent years. One study from the University of Florida, based on decades of data from the Florida Consumer Attitude survey, found that state residents reported notably higher levels of consumer confidence after their preferred party regained control of the White House. In the fall of 2016, after Trump won the presidential race, Republicans started expressing much more optimism about their personal finances.View image in fullscreen“Over time, [these shifts] have gotten bigger and bigger* … It’s true that, somehow, this kind of partisanship has been increasing,” said Hector Sandoval, director of the economic analysis program at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.Sandoval noted that, in 2016, the shift in sentiment can be observed in the immediate month after Trump won the election in November, even though he did not take office until January.“That’s even kind of striking because nothing has really happened [by this time],” Sandoval said. “The change in power isn’t until the next year, in January. But already by then you see how the consumer sentiment is changing a lot.”Although Democrats’ consumer attitudes have also been found to vary depending on the national political environment, Sandoval’s research found this shift to be particularly pronounced among Republicans, a finding that has been corroborated by other studies. Ryan Cummings, who previously worked for Biden’s council of economic advisers, and Neale Mahoney, who served as an adviser to the Biden administration’s national economic council, refer to this pattern as “asymmetric amplification”.According to an analysis by Cummings and Mahoney, the magnitude of the partisan bias on consumer sentiment is roughly two and a half times larger for Republicans compared with Democrats. In a phone call, Mahoney, now an economics professor at Stanford University, summarized the finding by saying that Republicans “cheer louder and boo harder” when their party controls the White House.Cummings and Mahoney found that this asymmetric amplification accounts for roughly a third of the gap between predicted consumer sentiment, based on current economic conditions, and observed consumer sentiment. In the Harris poll, Republicans were indeed more likely to incorrectly say that the economy is in a recession, but notably, nearly half of Democrats believed the same.So even when accounting for partisan bias, about two-thirds of the consumer sentiment gap remains. That has left economists – and many frustrated members of Biden’s team – searching for answers.Beyond the politicsPotential explanations for consumers’ lingering pessimism have abounded as election day nears. Greg Ip, a Wall Street Journal columnist, has attributed the pessimism to what he calls “referred pain”, meaning Americans are casting their broader doubts and fears about the state of the world on to the economy.“Just as one part of your body can hurt because of injury to another, pessimism about the economy may reflect dissatisfaction with the country as a whole,” Ip wrote in November. “Lately, there has been a lot to be dissatisfied about: intensifying political and cultural conflict and intolerance, the pandemic, the border, mass shootings, crime, war in Ukraine and now the war in the Middle East.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAnother explanation touches on the role of the media, with some experts arguing that coverage of the economy has become skewed toward bad news. One recent study from Ben Harris and Aaron Sojourner of the Brookings Institution concluded that “economic news has become systemically more negative beginning in 2018, with the negative bias growing over the past three years”.A third school of thought addresses the long-term pain and general psychology around inflation. Although the most recent CPI data found that prices rose by 3.4% over the past 12 months, prices have increased by roughly 20% since 2019. So even as the rate of inflation has fallen, Americans are still adjusting to the overall rise in the cost of living over the past few years. Prices also show no sign of significantly decreasing, a phenomenon known as deflation that is generally associated with times of severe economic distress.View image in fullscreenA separate analysis from Cummings and Mahoney found that “the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment fades out with a decay rate of about 50 percent per year,” meaning it takes a few years for the sting of a high inflationary period to substantially dissipate.“The impact of inflation this year is half as big as the impact last year, which is half as big as the impact in the year beforehand, so it has a half-life of basically one year,” Mahoney said. “But it takes two to three years for most of the impact of inflation to no longer show up in an analysis which connects inflation to consumer sentiment.”That lingering effect can dramatically alter views on the economy because, to put it bluntly, consumers really hate high inflation. Research by Stefanie Stantcheva, an economics professor at Harvard University, found that high inflation triggered feelings of anger, fear and injustice. Respondents expressed a widespread belief that their wages were not keeping pace with inflation, resulting in decreased buying power for their households.Respondents do report receiving wage increases as the inflation rate rose, but people tend to associate those raises with their own job performance or career progression, rather than the higher cost of living, so they often feel like inflation is robbing them of their hard-won earnings. Interestingly, people also tend to believe that the salaries of higher-income individuals are better able to keep up with inflation, amplifying feelings of unfairness.“As a result, when you ask people about the emotions that are triggered when they see prices rise, it’s a lot of stress, fear, anger,” Stantcheva said. “[That anger] tends to be directed at businesses [and] quite a lot at the government.”The way forward?Behind Americans’ doubts about the health of the economy are statistics that go beyond jobs and inflation rates. Understanding those metrics could be key to moving beyond some of the partisan perspectives.Despite the overall economic improvement, persistently high interest rates have increased the cost of carrying debt, adding to the burden of credit card bills and auto loans. Credit card debt hit a record high of $1.1tn in the final quarter of 2023, although that figure slightly declined in the first quarter of this year. Mortgage rates have come down marginally since last fall, when they reached a 23-year high, but their elevation has added to Americans’ existing concerns that the goal of homeownership has moved permanently out of reach.Underlying these statistics is the grim reality of how they disproportionately affect lower-income families. Stantcheva’s study found that lower-income Americans report being most adversely affected by high inflation, with some saying they have even delayed buying essentials to cope with rising prices. Her work builds on existing research suggesting that, though high inflation is loathed by all, the burden of the rising cost of living is not equally shared.Stantcheva’s research also offers some insight into Americans’ thoughts on building a fairer economic system. Like other recent surveys, respondents displayed broad support for a number of policy proposals that might address some of those concerns, including raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest households. Biden has called for such changes to the tax code, although he has struggled to get them approved by Congress, and he has incorporated his support for tax reform into his campaign messaging.The messaging could help Biden bridge the divide between his story of economic success and the reality that many Americans are not yet feeling the benefit of the recovery.“We don’t know each person’s situation, and the statistics just don’t capture this very well,” Stantcheva said. “So I think these feelings should not be dismissed at all. They should be taken quite seriously.” More
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She was in Trump’s Maga ‘cult’ – now she’s fighting far-right extremism
by Evelyn Reynolds 8 June 2024, 13:00
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While dozens of her neighbors piled into buses bound from Michigan for the US Capitol on 6 January, 2021, Penny Swan, a local Republican party activist and an outspoken Trump supporter, stayed home. But not for lack of enthusiasm: Swan wanted to join the throngs fighting to stop the certification of the 2020 election, but has a heart condition and worried about her ability to keep up.Instead, she watched social media in awe, as her friends and neighbors surged toward the Capitol.That was then.Since 2021, Swan, a medical equipment manager, has distanced herself from the rightwing group that organized the 6 January buses from her small, ruby-red town of Hillsdale, Michigan. Swan’s formerly close friends in the movement have become political rivals. And come November, she won’t vote for Trump.In an age of deepening political polarization, Swan’s story, of going deep into the Maga movement and defecting, is a rare one.According to a 2022 Pew study, “partisan antipathy” – deep dislike among members of a political party for the opposing group – has deepened in the US in the last decade. Democrats and Republicans are more likely today than 10 years ago to characterize each other as “unintelligent” and “close minded”. And Republicans who identify strongly with their party tend to prefer Trump overwhelmingly, as evidenced in the Republican primaries, which the former president swept.As the operator of a popular local politics page online and a longtime political activist, Swan has not only evolved as a voter. She has also documented, and at times participated in the unravelling of her county’s conservative movement – which, like the state Republican party, has gone to war with itself over far-right politics.View image in fullscreenA decade before 2,000 of Trump’s most diehard supporters stormed the Capitol, Swan, a lifelong Republican and Hillsdale resident, began documenting local government meetings. Some meetings were livestreamed, but not all – including meetings of the county commissioners.“I thought people needed to see the entire truth,” said Swan. “You could read something in the newspaper and that had a narrative, you could hear something on the radio, and that had a narrative, but it didn’t have the whole story. So I thought people should actually be able to see the entire process.”For years, Swan recorded and uploaded every meeting of local government she could attend on to her Facebook page, a repository of citizen journalism and pissed-off commentary called Penny Swan Political Activist Facts Matter. With more than 1,400 followers – in a town of about 8,000 – Swan’s page has become an important clearinghouse for political updates and a hub for heated debate, offering a window into the fraught world of Michigan conservative politics.In the wake of the 2020 election, the Republican party of Michigan – a swing state that flipped from Trump to Joe Biden in 2020 – saw a widening rift between the party’s establishment and its fired-up Maga base. The split spilled into the county Republican party chapters, with local party organizations devolving into factions. In Hillsdale, a group of Republican activists aligned with the Trump wing of the party created an informal caucus within the party chapter.The Hillsdale group – since dubbed the America First Republicans – aimed to change the local party “from neo-conservatism, your old establishment, George Bush-type crowd, to more of a modern day conservative group”, said Jon Smith, who helped form the caucus in late 2019. The idea, Smith said, was to turn the local GOP from what he viewed as a sleepy and bureaucratic organization into a mobilized one.View image in fullscreenSwan was excited when Smith approached her about a new, more active formation in the local party. It sounded like the perfect opportunity to ramp up her political work.“Those guys were like, ‘Oh, we’re going to take over the party, and we’re going to do more good stuff,’” said Swan. “And I’m like, ‘that sounds good. I’m coming because I want to do something and be proactive.’”And they did: in 2020, Daren Wiseley, an ally of the rightwing faction, was elected chairman of the Republican party of Hillsdale county. Swan continued to work with the party, taking on the role of deputy treasurer and joining the organization’s executive committee. The group was close-knit. They confided in each other about personal matters and hung out after meetings. Swan even spent holidays with Smith’s family.It’s not clear exactly when the relationship began to sour. By Smith’s account, Swan just wasn’t up for the job of deputy treasurer.“When our treasurer quit, [Swan] was the deputy treasurer and we were behind on filing reports,” said Smith. “That kind of pressure, Penny couldn’t handle it.”Swan has a different story. She says she raised concerns about the organization’s handling of finances, which the executives were unable, or unwilling, to address. In a 7 April 2022 email to former chairman Wiseley, Swan resigned.“It is with deep regret that I feel the need to step down as deputy treasurer,” wrote Swan. “I have spoken with you, Vice-Chairman Lashaway and also Secretary Smith about my concerns often over the past six months, to no avail.”Four months later, as the county party prepared for their annual convention, Swan’s old friends purged dozens of members who they viewed as insufficiently loyal to the Maga right. During the convention, armed security guards blocked those delegates, who had been formally “disavowed”, from entering. The standoff in the convention parking lot laid bare the divisions that had been festering in the organization for months and set the stage for a protracted legal battle over the rightful leaders of the Hillsdale county GOP. A court in 2022 found the America First faction could not rightfully claim to represent the county party, a victory for Swan’s faction.To her former friends in the Hillsdale Republican party, Swan is a turncoat – her defection, a betrayal.To others in the community, Swan is a rare ally with an inside view of the far right.“She was kind of brainwashed,” said Gail McClanahan, a Hillsdale county resident who led a successful recall campaign to unseat Stephanie Scott, an election-denying township clerk 2023. “Not now. Penny, she’s not scared,” said McClanahan. “She’s keeping us informed of the truth here in Hillsdale.”Swan’s split from the America First group, she says, was like leaving a “cult”. After she left and began criticizing the group online, her relationships with former friends in the group grew bitter. Swan says she even faced harassment and threats over her new political alignment.View image in fullscreenIn a letter sent to a close contact of Swan’s, someone who identified himself as “Lance” alleged that Swan had “spread hate, lies and misfortune”, and warned that “this is my only and last chance to save her from herself […] I cannot be held responsible for doing what needs to be done in defending my friends who do not deserve what she is doing to them”. Swan filed a police report and installed cameras in her apartment.In April 2022, Swan launched a campaign for an open seat on the city council, running on a pro-transparency platform. The race turned nasty.When a bitter fight broke out over the placement of children’s books with LGBTQ+ themes in the local library, Swan defended the librarian and the books. A meme circulated online, shared by her former friends, calling Swan a pedophile.In an email to the Guardian, Jessica Spangler, a former Hillsdale librarian, said the protracted controversy sparked “a considerable decline in my health, resulting in serious and lasting issues due to the undue stress endured during my tenure”.Joshua Paladino, a rightwing graduate student at Hillsdale College who called for the removal of books from the library, won the open seat.Swan suffered a third heart attack in December 2022, prompting her to back off from political work. She no longer films at every city council meeting, and says she is trying to resist the pull of vitriolic online arguments.But her goal is the same: to resist the current of rightwing extremism that has come to define politics in her town and county.She has found some allies in the Republican party, like Scott Sessions, a member of the Hillsdale county GOP and the former mayor of Hillsdale.“To me, it’s not really conservative,” Sessions said about the America First group. “It’s turned radical.”With elections coming up on 6 August for numerous county seats, Swan is helping out on a few campaigns that she sees as critical to fending off the far-right push. Two stand out in particular: an election for county sheriff, pitting the incumbent Republican against Jon Rutan, a self-proclaimed “constitutional sheriff”, and a race for county clerk, between Abe Dane, the current director of elections, and Stephanie Scott, who was recalled from a former post for embracing election conspiracy theories.The looming elections have Swan back on the politics beat.“When I get up at five o’clock in the morning, I’m reading and writing until I go to work,” said Swan. “For the most part, as soon as I get home at 2.30 or 3, I’m working on it till I go to bed.” More
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Steve Bannon vows to appeal jail sentence and says order about ‘shutting down the Maga movement’ – as it happened
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 June 2024, 20:01
Speaking outside the courthouse, Steve Bannon vowed to appeal his jail sentence to the supreme court, and accused the justice department of pursuing him as a way to retaliate against Donald Trump.“They’re not going to shut up Trump, they’re not going to shut up Navarro, they’re not going to shut up Bannon, and they’re certainly not going to shut up Maga,” said Bannon. He was referring to Peter Navarro, a former Trump White House trade adviser, who is serving a similar prison sentence on contempt of Congress charges.Bannon went on to predict an overwhelming victory in the November presidential election:
All of this is about one thing. This is about shutting down the Maga movement, shutting down grassroots conservatives, shutting down President Trump. Not only are we winning, we are going to prevail, and every number and every poll shows that. There’s nothing that can shut me up and nothing that will shut me up … There’s not a prison built, or a jail built that will ever shut me up.
All victory to Maga. We’re going to win this, we’re going to win at the supreme court, and more importantly, we’re going to win on November 5 an amazing landslide, with the Senate, the House and also Donald J Trump back as president United States.
Almost two years after he was first found guilty of contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the January 6 committee, a federal judge today ordered Steve Bannon, an influential figure in Donald Trump’s Maga movement, to begin serving his four-month sentence by 1 July. In a defiant speech outside the courthouse, he accused the justice department of using his case to retaliate against Trump, and predicted a big win for Republicans in the November presidential election. Speaking of Trump, the former president gave an interview to Fox News last night, where he argued he “would have every right to go after” political adversaries like Joe Biden, if he is returned to the White House. In response, the Biden campaign said Trump was “visibly rattled” by his conviction last week on felony business fraud charges.Here’s what else happened today:
The supreme court released a new batch of opinions, which did not include much-awaited decisions on Trump’s petition for immunity from federal prosecution over his 2020 election meddling, and two cases dealing with abortion access.
The American Civil Liberties Union is suing Milwaukee over restrictions on protesters ahead of the Republican National Convention.
Trump called for the supreme court to overturn his conviction on felony charges connected to falsifying documents related to hush-money payments made ahead of the 2016 election.
Hunter Biden’s federal gun charges trial continues in Delaware, with testimony from the widow of his late brother, Beau Biden.
The NAACP civil rights group asked Biden to halt all shipments of weapons to Israel.
Joe Biden does not do too many sitdown interviews with reporters, but took questions from ABC News during his visit to France for the D-day anniversary.He was asked about his recent decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weaponry to strike inside Russia. Here’s what he had to say:Here’s more on the president’s decision, which comes as Russia steps up attacks aimed at the city of Kharkiv:The American Civil Liberties Union said this morning it has filed a lawsuit against the city of Milwaukee over restrictions on protesters at the Republican National Convention that it says violate the first amendment.The convention, beginning on 15 July, will see thousands of delegates converge on the city’s Fiserv Forum and culminate in Donald Trump formally accepting the party’s nomination. Various groups have already announced plans to protest the event, and the ACLU claims the city’s restrictions on where they can do that are not in line with the constitution.Here’s more:You’re not hearing too much about Joe Biden on this blog today, because the US president is in France to mark the anniversary of D-day, and call for support for Ukraine. The Guardian’s Leonie Chao-Fong has the scoop:Joe Biden has marked the 80th anniversary of the D-day landings in Normandy with an impassioned call to western allies to continue supporting Ukraine in the face of the “unending struggle between dictatorship and freedom”.Speaking on Thursday at a ceremony at the Normandy American cemetery attended by his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, and dozens of surviving veterans from the second world war, Biden drew parallels between the Allied troops who fought to free Europe and the alliance of nations that came together to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression.The president warned that democracy was under great threat than at any time since the end of second world war. Describing Vladimir Putin as a “tyrant bent on domination”, Biden said the Russian leader and “the autocrats of the world are watching closely to see what happens in Ukraine, to see if we let this illegal aggression go unchecked.“To surrender to bullies, to bow to dictators, is simply unthinkable,” Biden said. “If we do, Ukraine will be subjugated and it will not end there, Ukraine’s neighbours will be threatened, all of Europe will be threatened.”Joe Biden criticized the international criminal court last month, after its chief prosecutor, Karim Kham, requested arrest warrants for two of Israel’s top leaders over their actions during the war in Gaza.That did not sit well with actor George Clooney, whose wife, Amal Clooney, worked on the case. He called up the White House to make his displeasure known, the Washington Post reports:
Clooney called Steve Ricchetti, counselor to the president, to express concern about Biden’s denunciation of arrest warrants sought by ICC prosecutors for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, especially his use of the word “outrageous.” The prosecutors also sought warrants for top Hamas leaders.
The actor was also upset about the administration’s initial openness to imposing sanctions on the ICC because his wife might be subject to the penalties, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
Clooney’s call came just weeks before he is set to appear at a fundraiser for Biden’s reelection campaign next Saturday in Los Angeles. His concerns spread throughout Biden’s orbit, leaving some officials to worry that the high-profile actor would withdraw from participating in the marquee fundraiser, which will also feature former president Barack Obama, late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel and actress Julia Roberts.
Biden has supported Israel’s response to the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack, despite a wave of protests from activists upset by the civilian toll caused the invasion of Gaza. Here’s more about why the president objected to the ICC chief prosecutor’s arrest warrant application:Johnson’s statement comes after a recent report from the Washington Post which revealed that Israeli fighter jets used US munitions to strike a UN school located in Gaza on Thursday.Two weapons experts verified the weapons’ type to the Post, using footage of debris from the attack.Here’s more from the Post’s Louisa Loveluck, Niha Masih, Hajar Harb, Kyle Melnick and Miriam Berger:
Israeli fighter jets appear to have used US-made munitions in a strike that killed dozens of people inside a UN school in the central Gaza Strip on Thursday, according to two weapons experts who examined verified footage from the debris.
The nose cones of two GBU-39 small diameter bombs were visible in footage taken by an eyewitness, Emad Abu Shawish, in the aftermath of the strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp. His images were verified by Storyful and independently geolocated by the Washington Post.
An Israel Defense Forces spokesman said the strikes targeted a gathering of militants at the school. But the facility was also packed with thousands of civilians displaced by the war, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which aids Palestinian refugees.
The Gaza Health Ministry said 40 people were killed, including 14 children and nine women, and 74 others were wounded. Khalil al-Degran, spokesman for the al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in nearby Deir al-Balah, said that the bodies of children killed in the strike were brought to his facility.
Read the full article here (paywall).Johnson’s demand for Biden came after Israel launched airstrikes against a refugee camp in Rafah during the Memorial Day weekend, an attack that killed dozens of people and was widely condemned by the international community.Here are Johnson’s full remarks, available here:
The NAACP has, and continues to express our profound sympathy to civilians whose lives have been unjustly impacted in the crossfire of conflict. What happened on October 7 was a tragedy, and it is our hope that those with loved ones still in captivity are reunited as expeditiously as possible.
As the nation’s leading civil rights organization, it is our responsibility to speak out in the face of injustice and work to hold our elected officials accountable for the promises they’ve made. Over the past months, we have been forced to bear witness to unspeakable violence, affecting innocent civilians, which is unacceptable. The most recent statement from the Biden administration is useful but does not go far enough. It is one thing to call for a ceasefire, it is another to take the measures necessary to work towards liberation for all. Decades of conflict reflect that factions inside Israel and Hamas actively work against resolution of the conflict. The latest proposal must clarify the consequences of continued violence. The United States and the international community must be willing to pull the levers of power when appropriate to advance liberation for all.
The Middle East conflict will only be resolved when the US government and international community take action, including limiting access to weapons used against civilians. The NAACP calls on President Biden to draw the red line and indefinitely end the shipment of weapons and artillery to the state of Israel and other states that supply weapons to Hamas and other terrorist organizations. It is imperative that the violence that has claimed so many civilian lives, immediately stop. Hamas must return the hostages and stop all terrorist activity. Israel must commit to an offensive strategy that is aligned with international and humanitarian laws. Peace and security for Israelis and Palestinians can only align when the humanity and common needs of people within the region are respected. Centuries of conflict reflect that violence results in more violence. The spillover effect in the United States is more racism, antisemitism and Islamophobia.
The president of the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) has asked Joe Biden to end the shipment of all weapons and artillery to Israel, in a new post to X.Derrick Johnson, who has led the civil rights organization since 2017, made the demand as more than 35,000 Palestinian people have been killed by Israel’s attacks against the territory.Johnson said:
We’re calling on [Biden] to draw the red line and end the shipment of all weapons and artillery to Israel. It is imperative that the violence that has claimed so many civilian lives comes to an end immediately.
Almost two years after he was first found guilty of contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the January 6 committee, a federal judge today ordered Steve Bannon, an influential figure in Donald Trump’s Maga movement, to begin serving his four-month sentence by 1 July. In a defiant speech outside the courthouse, he accused the justice department of using his case to retaliate against Trump, and predicted a big win for Republicans in the November presidential election. Speaking of Trump, the former president gave an interview to Fox News last night, where he argued he “would have every right to go after” political adversaries like Joe Biden, if he is returned to the White House. In response, the Biden campaign said Trump was “visibly rattled” by his conviction last week on felony business fraud charges.Here’s what else has happened today so far:
The supreme court released a new batch of opinions, which did not include much-awaited decisions on Trump’s petition for immunity from federal prosecution over his 2020 election meddling, and two cases dealing with abortion access.
Trump called for the supreme court to overturn his conviction on felony charges connected to falsifying documents related to hush-money payments made ahead of the 2016 election.
Hunter Biden’s federal gun charges trial continues in Delaware, with testimony from the widow of his late brother, Beau Biden.
Speaking outside the courthouse, Steve Bannon vowed to appeal his jail sentence to the supreme court, and accused the justice department of pursuing him as a way to retaliate against Donald Trump.“They’re not going to shut up Trump, they’re not going to shut up Navarro, they’re not going to shut up Bannon, and they’re certainly not going to shut up Maga,” said Bannon. He was referring to Peter Navarro, a former Trump White House trade adviser, who is serving a similar prison sentence on contempt of Congress charges.Bannon went on to predict an overwhelming victory in the November presidential election:
All of this is about one thing. This is about shutting down the Maga movement, shutting down grassroots conservatives, shutting down President Trump. Not only are we winning, we are going to prevail, and every number and every poll shows that. There’s nothing that can shut me up and nothing that will shut me up … There’s not a prison built, or a jail built that will ever shut me up.
All victory to Maga. We’re going to win this, we’re going to win at the supreme court, and more importantly, we’re going to win on November 5 an amazing landslide, with the Senate, the House and also Donald J Trump back as president United States.
After a federal judge revoked Steve Bannon’s bail and ordered him to begin serving his prison term by 1 July, he held a brief press conference outside Washington DC’s federal courthouse.Before he began speaking, a protester holding up a sign reading “lock him up” shouted “Get out of my way” at Bannon’s security guards, who were keeping him away from the former Donald Trump White House adviser.A federal judge has ordered Steve Bannon, a far-right strategist and Donald Trump ally, to report to prison by 1 July to begin serving his sentence for contempt of Congress, Reuters reports.Bannon was convicted in 2022 for ignoring a summons from the bipartisan House committee that investigated the January 6 insurrection, and his four-month sentence was upheld by an appeals court last month. Here’s more on the long-running legal saga:This post has been corrected to note that Bannon must begin serving his sentence by 1 July, not on 1 July.Meanwhile, in Congress, Donald Trump has orchestrated the appointment of two allies to the House intelligence committee, which deals with some of the most sensitive information the US government possesses. Here’s more, from the Guardian’s Robert Tait:Two far-right Republicans have been appointed to the highly sensitive House of Representatives intelligence committee at the direction of Donald Trump, a move likely to antagonise the security establishment.Representatives Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and Ronny Jackson of Texas, known for their fierce loyalty to Trump and vocal support of his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result, were installed by the House speaker, Mike Johnson, ahead of other qualified GOP members and apparently without consulting the body’s chair, Mike Turner.Turner has sought to restore the committee’s bipartisan character following years of bitter party infighting between Republicans and Democrats.The appointments of Perry and Jackson to a committee that helps to shape US foreign policy and oversees intelligence agencies such as the FBI and the CIA has caused consternation on Capitol Hill. It also signals Trump’s hostility to organisations that he has vowed to purge if he is re-elected.Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican congressman who served on the House select committee that investigated the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol, called the move “insane” on a social media post.The pair were appointed to slots opened up by the resignations from Congress of Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin and Chris Stewart of Utah.Joe Biden is also dealing with some unwelcome legal attention. His son, Hunter Biden, is on trial in Delaware on federal gun charges, and the Associated Press reports that the widow of the president’s late son Beau Biden took the stand today:Testifying in Hunter Biden’s federal gun trial, Hallie Biden – the widow of Joe Biden’s oldest son, Beau – described panicking after finding a gun in his truck.“I panicked and I wanted to get rid of them,” she testified about finding a gun and ammunition in the console of Hunter Biden’s truck in October 2018.Prosecutor Leo Wise asked why she panicked, and Hallie responded: “Because I didn’t want him to hurt himself, and I didn’t want my kids to find it and hurt themselves.”Hallie said she considered hiding the gun but thought her kids might find it. She then decided to throw it away.“I was afraid to touch it. I didn’t know if it was loaded,” Hallie said.She put the gun in a leather pouch, stuffed it in a shopping bag, and tossed it in a trash can outside an upscale grocery market near her house.The prosecution played surveillance footage showing Hallie dumping the gun in the trash.While Donald Trump’s felony business fraud trial in New York concluded last week with a guilty verdict, other prosecutions of the former president have stalled. Yesterday, an appeals court in Georgia put his trial on election fraud charges on hold, likely until after the 2024 election, the Guardian’s George Chidi reports:The Georgia court of appeals has put a hold on the trial of Donald Trump and other defendants while it considers whether to disqualify the Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, the lead prosecutor in the case.Trump had appealed an order by the Fulton county superior court judge Scott McAfee that declined to disqualify Willis after bombshell revelations about a romantic relationship with her chosen special prosecutor. As part of their effort to dismiss the case, Trump and his co-defendants alleged Willis’s relationship meant she should be recused from the case.On Monday, the appeals court selected a three-judge panel to hear the appeal and docketed the case to be heard in October. Then on Wednesday, the court paused the case while this argument plays out.Both Trump’s attorney Steve Sadow and a spokesperson for Willis’s office declined to comment on the court’s order.The order staying the case in Fulton county essentially ensures that the former president will not be tried on charges of election interference and racketeering in Georgia before the November election.“The history books will look back on what the country lost by not having a televised trial before November 2024 and historians will wonder what Fani Wills was thinking. And they’ll just scratch their heads,” said Anthony Michael Kreis, a constitutional law professor in Georgia and a close observer of the case. “I don’t know how much Judge McAfee could have done between now and the appeal’s pendency anyway. But the real loss is McAfee’s ability to deal with the question of presidential immunity and the supremacy clause over the summer.” More

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