Subterms
José López (left), 49, congratulates first-time voters Alfonso Garcia (right), 18, and López’s daughter, Mariah Delgado, 18, in Los Angeles on 4 November
Photograph: Damian Dovarganes/AP More
Americans went to the polls on Tuesday against a backdrop of misinformation – much of it suspected of originating in Russia – as the FBI warned of fake videos and non-credible threats of terrorism aimed at disrupting the US presidential election and discouraging voting.These tensions were stoked by Donald Trump supporters, and the former US president himself. Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and Trump’s most vocal surrogate, tweeted a video of support that appeared to reference the far-right QAnon ideology.The video, showing footage of the January 6 insurrection and featuring Van Halen’s song Jump as a soundtrack, came after an earlier social media post from the entrepreneur that repeated elements of the debunked Pizzagate conspiracy from the 2016 presidential election.“The hammer of justice is coming,” read that earlier post.The flood of untruths was fed by Trump on Tuesday as he falsely claimed he had a “big lead” in opinion polls while casting doubt on the reliability of voting machines. Having already baselessly claimed that there was Democratic “cheating” in Pennsylvania, the Republican nominee said it was “an outrage” that it took so long to count votes in swing states.The former president also took liberties with the truth in an early election day video on his Truth Social platform. In an apparent reference to transgender boxers, the video featured Trump complaining that “men could beat up women and win medals” – a supposed example of how American values had collapsed under Joe Biden’s presidency, which the Republican has tied to his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris.The disinformation and false statements from the Trump campaign came as voting in one key battleground state, Georgia, already faced disruption following what appeared to fake bomb threats against at least two polling stations.The threats were made against polling stations at Etris Community Center and Gullatt elementary school in Union City, on the outskirts of Atlanta, according to Fulton county police. Union City’s population is nearly 90% Black, according to the US Census Bureau, fuelling suspicions that the threats were aimed at disrupting a cohort expected to mainly vote for Harris.Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, told journalists that the “non-credible” threats came from Russia.“We identified the source, and it was from Russia,” he said, saying he believed that the source had been a Russian troll farm.“They’re up to mischief, it seems, and they don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election,” he added. “Anything that can get us to fight amongst ourselves – they can count that as a victory.”The bomb threats followed a warning from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence [ODNI] on Monday that Russia, Iran and China were involved in efforts at election disruption but that Russia was “the most active threat”.“Influence actors linked to Russia in particular are manufacturing videos and creating fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of the election, instill fear in voters regarding the election process, and suggest Americans are using violence against each other due to political preferences, judging from information available to the IC [intelligence community],” an ODNI statement said.“These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials. We anticipate Russian actors will release additional manufactured content with these themes through election day and in the days and weeks after polls close.”In line with that statement, the FBI on Tuesday dismissed a video – made to look like a news clip and purporting to emanate from the bureau – advising Americans to “vote remotely” due to a “high terror threat” at poling stations.“This video is not authentic and does not accurately represent the current threat posture or polling location safety,” the bureau said.It also disavowed a separate video falsely depicting a political rigging voting among prison inmates.In a statement, the FBI said there were “two instances of its name and insignia being misused in promoting false narratives surrounding the election,” USA Today reported.The second video features a fake FBI press release alleging that officials at five prisons in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona rigged voting among inmates and conspired with a political party. “This video is also not authentic, and its contents are false,” the FBI said.Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
When do polls close?
When will we know the result?
Where is abortion on the ballot?
Senate and House races to watch
How the electoral college works
Everything you need to know More
Viola Ford Fletcher, the oldest living survivor of the Tulsa race massacre, cast her ballot in Oklahoma on Tuesday at 110 years old for Kamala Harris.In a photo shared on social media, Fletcher is wearing an “I voted” sticker, and according to CNN journalist Abby Phillip, Fletcher voted for the vice-president, as she had previously said she would.Fletcher was just seven years old in 1921 when a white mob attacked the city’s “Black Wall Street”, killing an estimated 300 African Americans. The mob also robbed and burned more than 1,200 businesses, churches and homes, which left thousands of people homeless.In 2021, 100 years after the massacre occurred, Fletcher and other survivors testified before Congress in support of a lawsuit brought in 2020 aimed at getting reparations for the destruction of Greenwood, a once-thriving Black district.The lawsuit argued that Tulsa’s history of racial division and tension stemmed from the massacre and noted that the city and insurance companies never compensated the victims.The lawsuit also argued that the massacre resulted in racial and economic disparities in the region that still exist today.In 2023, an Oklahoma judge dismissed the lawsuit, undermining efforts to secure some legal justice for the elderly survivors.That same year, Fletcher released her memoir, Don’t Let Them Bury My Story, which details the impact of the Tulsa massacre on her life and advocates for racial justice.Lessie Benningfield Randle, one of other last living survivors of the 1921 Tulsa race massacre, also cast her vote in the 2024 election this week, according to Essence.Randle, who is 109 years old, told Essence, that if this is her last ballot, “then I’m grateful that it’s for Kamala Harris”.“My grandchildren deserve a world where taking care of their parents isn’t a financial struggle, medication is affordable and women are free,” she said. “And our children deserve a president who will inspire them to learn from history, not a tyrant who will try to erase it.” More
From assertions that America’s highest-profile vaccine critic would lead health agencies to new promises for “massive reform” of Obamacare, the chaotic last week of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign will probably serve as a preview of what “Make America healthy again” could mean should the former president regain power.The jumble of proposals echoed conservative policy documents, channeled the residual anger of the post-pandemic anti-vaccine movement and alarmed experts who help set the nation’s health policies.“My first reaction is that a Trump administration would be the most anti-public health, anti-science administration in history,” said Lawrence Gostin, a global health law professor at Georgetown Law School.“In my mind, health is very much on the ballot,” he said.Over the last week of the campaign, Trump said he would let the nation’s foremost vaccine skeptic “go wild” at the nation’s food and drug agencies and refused to rule out banning certain vaccines. The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, also promised “massive reform” of Obamacare should Trump win.Vaccines are among society’s most effective public health interventions, saving an estimated 154 million lives worldwide over 50 years, according to a study in the Lancet. Obamacare has grown in popularity even among Republicans.“It reminds me of the chaos of the first administration, right in the midst of the pandemic,” said Gostin, referring to a time when Trump floated bogus treatments for Covid from injecting disinfectant to ivermectin to hydroxychloroquine – all debunked and often actively harmful.“But it’s far worse,” continued Gostin, “because while Trump at least was surrounded by credible scientists like Tony Fauci, I don’t think there will be any similar restraint in the next Trump administration.”The official Republican party platform is short on details, but blames immigrants for high healthcare prices, and says the party will “commit” to lowering healthcare prices through “choice” and “transparency”. It also pledges to “protect” Medicare from Democrats, who it claims plan to allow “tens of millions of new illegal immigrants” to enroll in the program.Voters in both parties cite healthcare costs as their top health-related issue. However, transparency measures would probably only result in a 1% reduction in healthcare prices over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. “Choice” is often a euphemism for reducing health insurance regulations, which would allow Americans to buy plans that cover fewer services.Undocumented migrants are not eligible to enroll in Medicare, and the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, backed away from a policy that would have provided government-backed healthcare to all residents of the US, regardless of immigration status.A detailed look at how Trump’s supporters might attempt to change US health policy is found in the conservative playbook Project 2025. There, health policy proposals are dominated by calls to restrict abortion and diminish the role of scientific research.In it, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) should be known as the “Department of Life”, approval for medication abortion should be withdrawn, and health policy should promote “fatherhood” and the “nuclear family” and stop research that amounts to “woke transgender activism”.HHS should stop focusing on “LGBTQ+ equity” and end policies that are “subsidizing single-motherhood, disincentivizing work, and penalizing marriage”. Its sub-agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, should be split in two with the power to make policy recommendations severely curtailed. The “incestuous relationship” between government researchers and vaccine manufacturers should end, the plan says.As voters head to the polls, the people who might institute these policies have also come into focus. Robert F Kennedy Jr, the former independent candidate and staunch vaccine critic, said he had been “promised” a role helming the nation’s health agencies by Trump.“The key, which President Trump has promised me, is control of the public health agencies,” said Kennedy on a Zoom call with supporters, according to ABC News. Those agencies include “HHS and its sub-agencies, CDC, Food and Drug Administration, [National Institutes of Health] and a few others. And also the [United States Department of Agriculture], which is, you know, key to making America healthy”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionKennedy ended his presidential run and endorsed Trump in August after a conspiracy theory-fueled campaign that revealed he had health issues related to a brain worm, once sawed the head off a whale and dumped a dead bear in Central Park.Dr Joseph Ladapo has been floated as a potential pick for the head of HHS. The Harvard University-educated Florida surgeon general warned state residents against using Covid-19 vaccines and allowed unvaccinated children to go to school during a measles outbreak.Although ideas floated by Trump’s supporters may be easily disproved, health researchers and policy experts said they take the threat of their influence deadly serious, with the last week highlighting how legitimate concerns about the power of pharmaceutical and chemical companies can be exploited.“I think we leaned into a libertarian left hook,” said Dr Paul Offit, director of the vaccine education center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of an advisory committee on vaccines for the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).Offit said he worried vaccine mandates primed some Americans to believe vaccine misinformation, and even though he supported them, worried they may “have done more harm than good”.Another research advocate who spoke anonymously to Science magazine said: “We’re all in a state of panic … I don’t know anybody who isn’t worried about this.”Soon, the nation will know the extent to which such messages resonated with voters.“I’m surprised that anti-vaccine rhetoric is considered to be convincing enough to get you elected,” said Offit. “I’m surprised that such a significant portion of the population would be compelled by that.”Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
When do polls close?
When will we know the result?
Where is abortion on the ballot?
Senate and House races to watch
How the electoral college works
Everything you need to know More
Donald Trump’s record of refusal to concede defeat after the last US election should have disqualified him from running in this one. His criminal indictments should have meant banishment from mainstream politics. His campaign rhetoric – a rambling litany of bigotry and spite – should not have carried beyond the paranoid fringe.But what use are should and shouldn’t against the brute force of can and does? Things that are supposed to be self-evident in a constitutional democracy have ceased to be obvious to millions of Americans. We don’t need to wait for all votes to be counted to wish for a stronger cultural inoculation against tyranny.A healthier body politic would not have been infected by Trump’s candidacy. How did the democratic immune system fail? He is gifted with a malign kind of charisma, but it needed a confluence of economic stagnation, cultural polarisation and technological revolution over many years to achieve maximum contagion.There is always a risk of romanticising the past when coping with anxiety in the present. Aggressive nationalism that bristles with racism, misogyny and swaggering machismo is an old style in American politics. There is also nothing especially new in polarised social attitudes. Culture wars have been waged with varying degrees of intensity for generations.What stands out as a uniquely 21st-century innovation is the segregation of political tribes into discrete and self-reinforcing information silos. Formerly, even in times of fierce political division, there were institutions and rules that governed debate. There were commonly agreed facts that might be subject to rival interpretation while still connecting partisans of opposite views to a shared reality.That way of conducting politics is not obsolete, but it is rooted in analogue systems. It relies on real-life interactions, deliberations, clunky old institutions, meandering conversations, small talk. It is the stuff of people mingling in assemblies and town halls, breaking bread together. It is the opposite of politics played in digital mode where the platforms on which debate is conducted are also engines of radicalisation; where differences of opinion are accelerated into irreconcilable enmities.This isn’t an elegy for some pre-internet golden age of enlightened public discourse. Prejudice, misinformation, sheer stupidity and abuse of power were abundant enough when information flows were tightly controlled and volumes were a tiny fraction of what they are now.An apparent correlation between extreme politics and the rise of social media doesn’t prove a causal link. But there is a plausible argument that a very online culture, marked by short attention spans, narcissism and impatient consumer appetites, has a more natural affinity with shallow demagoguery than with representative democracy.The whole apparatus of voting for a candidate who might not satisfy your exact needs, and probably doesn’t embody all the values you hold sacred, but might at least make some half-decent decisions for the country as a whole over the coming years, feels oddly antiquated. It is alien to the click-and-collect spirit of digital commerce.A democratic election is the antithesis of an internet transaction. It contains not just an expectation of delayed gratification, but a guarantee of frustration. Compromise, imperfection and disappointment are the necessary price for having a government that tries to balance the complex demands of a variegated society.The alternative is a political movement, such as the Maga cult, that treats elections as a cry of rage or exultant self-actualisation. Trump’s campaign has never construed voting in terms of civic choice, with more than one potentially legitimate outcome. It was always going to be either a heroic restoration of the rightful president or another iteration of the deep-state conspiracy against him. There is no place for defeat in the script except as material to bolster the claim of a higher victory.It is a mode of campaigning that is hostile to the basic premise of a democratic ballot, which is that either side might win and counting votes actually counts.It also exploits a culture of political journalism that measures professional integrity by a refusal to pick sides. It has been peculiar to observe liberal American media continuing to apply their conventional reporting templates, which contain the implicit judgment that the two candidates have equivalent democratic credentials. That is absurd when one of them transparently despises democracy.Much of America’s moderate conservative and liberal establishment seems to have spent the campaign going through the motions of political normalcy, hoping to stir the system into resilience by operation of muscle memory. It doesn’t work.But ringing the alarm at the spectre of fascism doesn’t work either. There is no doubt that Trump’s temperament and ambitions are fascistic. He admires dictators, lusts after absolute power, speaks of political critics as enemies and boasts of his willingness to crush them with armed organs of the state.And yet calling that kind of politics by its proper name doesn’t provoke any scruple among his supporters. Partly that is because the currency of comparison with 20th-century dictators has been dulled by overuse. “Fascist” is a label that has been applied too casually and too often as unthinking abuse to be rehabilitated as a tool with moral precision and rhetorical impact more than 100 years after it was coined.That doesn’t mean the lessons of the 1920s and 1930s are irrelevant to the current predicament. It is easy to find disturbing parallels, and the connection can’t be ignored when white supremacists and card-carrying neo-Nazis are an active cadre in the new radical-right coalition.But there is also a danger for liberal opinion in leaning too heavily on the familiar cautionary tales from history.Casting the threat as a resurgence of something old – a zombie ideology risen from its postwar grave – preserves the convenient idea of liberal democracy as the more modern and more highly evolved political system. It is the instinct to dismiss nationalism as an ideological retirement home for angry white people whose skills don’t equip them to compete in a dynamic, globalised economy, and who express their frustration as bigoted reaction against progressive social change.There might be a dose of truth in that analysis – but it doesn’t contain an argument in favour of liberal democracy, beyond the implication that only stupid, bad people oppose it. Unsurprisingly, those same people don’t find that argument very persuasive.The awkward truth for those of us who rally in defence of liberal democracy today is that it has undergone no obvious renewal since its peak at the end of the last century. We, no less than the nationalists, are imprisoned by nostalgia, wishing the future could be more like the past. And so we find ourselves constantly testing the limits of analogue protection against a virus that is digitally borne.
Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist
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On the eve of election day, late-night hosts talked polls, the exhaustion of an endless campaign cycle and their closing arguments for Kamala Harris.Jimmy Kimmel“We are now one day away from having to wait another week to find out who won the election,” said Jimmy Kimmel on Monday evening. “It feels like the whole country is waiting to get the results of a biopsy.”Donald Trump declared his candidacy nearly two years ago, on 15 November 2022. “And now, 720 days, 88 criminal charges, 34 felony convictions, four indictments, two Democratic opponents and one garbage truck later, here we are. Election day,” said Kimmel.According to most national polls, the race is a dead heat, but Kimmel had harsh words for the pollsters. “These polls? They’re mood rings. That’s all they are,” he said. “They bring you up, they bring you down. Poll is short for bipolar.“There’s no magic involved, it’s heads or tails,” he added. “At the end of this, the pollsters who were wrong will quietly disappear. The other ones will be like ‘I told you, 1%.’ What did you tell us? You called 800 losers who didn’t have enough sense to not answer an unknown call.“I still don’t understand how this race is close,” he continued, referencing recordings obtained by the Daily Beast of Jeffrey Epstein talking about Trump as his “friend”.“Epstein said Trump told him he likes to have sex with the wives of his best friends, to the point where Epstein described Trump as having no ‘moral compass’. Do you know what kind of lowlife you have to be for Jeffrey Epstein to say you have no moral compass?” he fumed. “It’s like if R Kelly got mad at you for leaving the toilet seat up.”Kimmel concluded with his final message regarding the election: “Take a moment to imagine a world in which you wake up in the morning, you check the news, and no one says the words ‘Donald’ or ‘Trump’. Just a bunch of normal, boring stuff. Wouldn’t that be nice? No lawn signs. No red hats. No arguing with your grandfather.“Let’s remove this cancerous polyp from our collective national colon,” he added, “and move on already.”Seth Meyers“None of us can control what happens tomorrow, we can only control how drunk we are when it happens,” said Seth Meyers on Late Night, staring down a batch of polls declaring the election a “toss-up”.“How can so many polls be tied?” he wondered. “Are they doing the first half of the poll at an artisanal coffee shop in Williamsburg and the second half of the poll in a beer line at a Kid Rock concert?“How is it possible that exactly half the country think Trump is an amoral psychopath who would wreck American democracy, and the other half thinks he’s an amoral psychopath who would wreck American democracy … but it’s worth it because he’s an incredible dancer!”Meyers devoted a good chunk of his monologue to reminding voters what they were choosing between. Republicans’ closing message, he argued, was: “Are you going to vote for a woman whose laugh they don’t like, or are you going to vote for a guy who fomented a violent coup attempt after a months-long campaign against the 2020 election, undercut the nation’s response to a deadly pandemic that spiraled out of control because he tried to cover it up, lied about its severity, promoted sham treatments for it, said we could cure it by injecting disinfectant and shining powerful lights inside the body, became the first president since Herbert Hoover to oversee a net job loss?”He listed more disqualifying credentials up to and including January 6 – full transcript here – and concluded with a note of exhaustion. “I’ve been talking about this man for nearly a decade now, as evidenced by the fact that everything I just listed is in my brain still somehow,” he said. “The symptoms that gave rise to him will not immediately go away if he loses tomorrow, but we do have an opportunity to say as a nation that we want him to go away. And I really hope that happens, mainly so I never have to think about this ever again.”Stephen Colbert“After a two-year campaign, we have finally made it through all 20 years,” said Stephen Colbert on Late Night. “We’re all in some true sense about to witness history. Good or bad. I’m guessing this is how the people of Pompeii felt when Vesuvius was trying to get re-elected.”Like Meyers and Kimmel, Colbert was frustrated by the dead-heat polls. “I could get a clearer prediction from a magic 8 ball!” he joked.One ray of light, however, was J Ann Selzer’s highly regarded Des Moines Register poll in Iowa, which found Harris leading Trump by three points, with senior women breaking for the vice-president 63% to 28%. “Oh, senior women are AAR-pissed,” Colbert quipped. “Save me, Gam-Gam!”The Harris campaign cautioned about getting too excited, but “too late!” Colbert chirped. “I have to be excited, because I’ve only got two other choices. Absolute terror or Absolut vodka. I need this. There’s no in between.”Meanwhile, in the final days of the campaign, Trump was “presenting a very good case that his brain done broke”, Colbert quipped. In North Carolina, Trump tried to “out-Tim Walz Tim Walz” with a football pep talk that went awry. “All we have to do is carry that ball over that … thing,” he said.“Oh yes, exactly,” Colbert joked. “Just carry the ball over that … thing.” More
As the extremely divisive election over who will next lead the United States wrapped up, California’s Bay Area was enveloped in a quiet calm. Far from the massive political rallies and the rousing rhetoric that has overtaken battleground states many voters here are decided; the communities to the east of San Francisco were among the counties that voted most strongly for Joe Biden in 2020, and they will show up again hoping to defeat Donald Trump.Even so, some ballots in Oakland and Berkeley will be cast with an extra sense of pride. In the towns where Kamala Harris was born and raised, locals are hopeful their hometown hero will make history.“Words cannot express how excited I am for Kamala Harris to become the first woman president, the first Black woman president and the first south Asian woman president,” said Oakland resident Kim Thompson. “She will also be the first president from Oakland, California,” Thompson added.Not all voters in the mid-sized cities that hug the shores of the San Francisco Bay are aware that the Democratic nominee got her start there. But as the self-proclaimed “daughter of Oakland”, Harris staged her campaign around her connection to the area, claiming the diverse city that’s steeped in cultural and political history with pride.View image in fullscreenThose are also the attributes that drew Thompson to lay down roots and raise her family in Oakland after moving there in 1987. As a Black woman and a lawyer who is deeply connected to civic life in the city, she delights in its ties to a potentially historic moment should Harris be elected.“How great would it be for Oakland if the rest of the country looks to us and says, ‘Wow. That is not just the birthplace of the Black Panthers, not just a place that stood side by side with San Francisco and Berkeley where a lot of the civil rights movement started,’” she said. She’s looking ahead to a future where a presidential library is hosted in the town. “That will be such a positive mark on our city – we are the place where it all began for her.”Born in a Kaiser hospital near the heart of Oakland, Harris and her small family moved frequently in her early years, settling in the midwest and in Montreal in between spells in California. But Harris left a mark on the places where she grew up that still lingers today.A mural depicting her alongside the civil rights leader Dolores Huerta, female education activist Malala Yousafzai and other impactful women now stands in the tree-lined neighborhood where she attended elementary school in north Berkeley, bussed across town from her apartment as part of a 1967 plan to desegregate schools.View image in fullscreenBerkeley and Oakland each offer lists of important sites for Harris-themed tours, including where she launched her first bid for the presidency – one she ended before primaries began back in 2019 – in front of roughly 20,000 people near the steps of Oakland’s city hall.These towns left an indelible mark on her too. Those early years, which she chronicles in her memoir, The Truths We Hold: An American Journey, are filled with remembrances of joy but also the budding awareness about injustice, the fight for equality and rich cultural traditions of activism and art.Harris credits her upbringing, including trips to the Rainbow Sign, a once vibrant African American cultural center in Berkeley that she attended with her mother, Shyamala, and her sister, Maya, for seeding her political ambitions.View image in fullscreen“Being from a place that’s so diverse it helps shape our ideals and our morals and to accept people for their differences,” said Derreck Johnson, an Oakland resident and close childhood friend of Harris. And, he said, even if Harris hasn’t devoted a lot of campaign time to the area, understandably focusing resources and face time in areas where votes are harder-won, she hasn’t forgotten about her home town or the friends who still live there.When Johnson opened his restaurant, Home of Chicken and Waffles, she called to congratulate him. He returned the favor, driving to Nevada to join her in the crucial final days of campaigning. He’s also planning to add a temporary menu item that bears her name – chicken lasagne cooked with collard greens – for those back home.“I am overwhelmed with joy – I don’t even know how to describe it,” he said. “I feel she is going to win. I feel she is going to win big.”
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In the Bay Area, whether voting with hometown pride, a desire to see history made or a dedication to progressive values – perhaps even all three – large numbers are expected to cast their support. Close to 80% of Alameda county, of which both Berkeley and Oakland are part, voted for Biden in 2020, the landmark election that made her the first female vice-president.View image in fullscreenStill, “everybody’s holding their collective breath and that’s all we can do”, said Joyce Gardner, who has owned a women’s clothing shop in Rockridge, one of Oakland’s lively shopping districts for more than two decades. She’s dedicated her storefront to depictions of the candidate, adding Harris’s face to mannequins clad in classy suits and adorning it with cardboard cutouts.For Gardner though, Harris’s hometown heritage isn’t the draw.“It’s not about her connections to here,” she said. “It’s about what she’s going to do to lift up people.” Gardner is one of many who is voting in this election with a specific purpose: to ensure Trump doesn’t get another shot at the White House.“We need this country to move forward with a decent human being who cares about people, and not just lining his pockets,” she said.“We will see,” she added. “I believe this country is going to do the right thing.”Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
When do polls close?
How the electoral college works
Where is abortion on the ballot?
Senate and House races to watch
Lessons from the key swing states
Trump v Harris on key issues
What’s at stake in this election
What to know about the US election More
Leslie Lemus’s top issue in the 2024 election is probably the economy. But she has a close second: “Them fucking with abortion.”Really, for the 26-year-old Arizona native, the two issues are one and the same. On Monday, she got an abortion at Camelback Family Planning, one of the last abortion clinics in Arizona, in large part because Lemus feels like she can’t financially care for a child right now.“I look at the world and it’s not very pretty. I’m not ready for that yet, to bring a child into the world right now, where the economy is not OK,” said Lemus, who said she lived paycheck to paycheck. Some months, she has to choose between making her car payments and paying off her credit card debt. “Everybody’s struggling left and right.”View image in fullscreenLemus is registered to vote in Maricopa county, which is home to 60% of the Arizona electorate and may determine whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the valuable swing state. Harris has made access to reproductive rights a key part of her policy platform – particularly as a contrast to Trump, who appointed three of the US supreme court justices who overturned Roe v Wade and who has toggled between branding himself as a champion of reproductive rights and as “the most pro-life president”.Lemus is a passionate supporter of Harris, who she calls “my homegirl”.Majorities of Americans have backed abortion access and Roe v Wade for decades, but it was rarely their top issue in the voting booth. Now that the US supreme court has overturned Roe, permitting more than a dozen states to ban almost all abortions and several more to ban it at six, 12, or – as in Arizona – 15 weeks, abortion may become the deciding issue of the 2024 election. It is now the most important issue for women under 45, like Lemus.“If Harris wins the election, it will be because of abortion and women voting for her in large part because of that issue,” said Tresa Undem, a pollster who’s been surveying people about abortion for more than two decades.On Monday, Camelback had about 40 patients to see; at least one had traveled in from Texas, which bans almost all abortions. Visitors to the lobby were greeted by a sign urging them to register to vote while they waited for their abortion. The sign advised: “The health of our democracy is in our hands.”‘That gives me hope’On Tuesday, Arizona will become one of 10 states where voters will decide whether to amend their state constitutions to add or expand abortion protections. (In one of those states, Nebraska, voters will vote on both a ballot measure that could expand abortion rights and on the nation’s sole anti-abortion measure.) Five of those states, including Arizona, have some kind of abortion ban on the books. If any of the measures supporting abortion rights pass, it would be the first time that a state has overturned a post-Roe v Wade ban.Democrats have long hoped these measures would boost turnout among their base, but the rosy polling for the measures in steadfastly red states indicates that a significant swath of voters are essentially splitting their votes by supporting both abortion rights and Republicans, the party that helped engineer Roe’s downfall. Although the measure looks likely to pass in Arizona, for example, polling suggests that Trump will win the state.View image in fullscreenJulio Morera helped collect signatures at the Arizona state fair in order to get the measure on the ballot. His group’s booth, he recalled, was set up next to a man who was hawking rightwing memorabilia adorned with eagles, guns and the slogan “Don’t Tread On Me”. When asked to sign the petition, the man demurred. “I got customers to think about,” he said.But at the very end of the fair, Morera said, the man added his signature.“That gives me hope that this is gonna pass,” Morera said. “There are quite a few people that may not be Democrats or left-leaning who would support this access to abortion.”A vote for Trump, however, may ultimately cancel out a vote for a ballot measure. If Trump wins the presidency, he will be able to skirt Congress and use a 19th-century anti-vice law known as the Comstock Act to ban the mailing of all abortion-related materials – which would result in a de facto national abortion ban and render these measures’ successes moot.Project 2025, an influential policy playbook for the next conservative administration, suggests using the Comstock Act to at least ban the mailing of abortion pills, which account for roughly two-thirds of US abortions. It also suggests rolling back privacy protections for abortion patients and reshaping the nation’s largest family planning program, which would curtail access to contraception, among a bevy of other anti-abortion policies.Harris, meanwhile, has forcefully defended abortion rights. “Over these past two years, the impact of Trump abortion bans has been devastating,” she told a rally in Texas in October. “We see the horrific reality that women and families face every single day.”For Lemus, abortion bans all come down to one thing: “Men being in control of women.”View image in fullscreenThe economy was not the only reason that Lemus sought an abortion on Monday. She is also worried about the mental toll of having a child. At 18, Lemus gave birth to a son who was born prematurely and died just a month after birth.“I was there with all the medical stuff, seeing my child in the incubator until he passed away,” she said quietly. Eight years later, Lemus is not ready to have another one.“We fought so hard to have choices,” she said. “Why do they feel like we can’t have a choice?”Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
When do polls close?
How the electoral college works
Where is abortion on the ballot?
Senate and House races to watch
Lessons from the key swing states
Trump v Harris on key issues
What’s at stake in this election
What to know about the US election More
