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      Kristi Noem dogged by poor polling amid fallout from tale of killing puppy

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      Kristi Noem, the South Dakota governor and Republican vice-presidential hopeful, saw polling numbers plummet after the Guardian revealed that she writes in a new book about the day she shot dead a hunting dog and an un-castrated goat, a revelation that ignited a political storm.Announcing what it called its “Noem Puppy Murder Poll Findings”, New River Strategies, a Democratic firm, said 81% of Americans disapproved of Noem’s decision to shoot Cricket, a 14-month-old wire-haired pointer who Noem says ruined a pheasant hunt and killed a neighbour’s chickens, thereby earning a trip to a gravel pit to die.According to Noem’s account, the goat, which Noem did not name, followed Cricket to the pit because Noem deemed his odour and behaviour unacceptable on her farm. By Noem’s own detailed admission, it took two blasts from a shotgun, separated by a walk back to her truck for more shells, to finish the goat off.Noem’s book – No Going Back: The Truth on What’s Wrong with Politics and How We Move America Forward – will be published in May. The Guardian obtained a copy.The governor’s extraordinary admission made news because she has long been seen to be auditioning to be picked for vice-president by Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.On Friday, amid widespread disbelief that Noem chose to tell such a horrific story in such detail in a campaign book, most observers thought her chances of winning the Trump veepstakes were over.Wrote Meghan McCain, a conservative pundit whose father, John McCain, in 2008 made one of the most disastrous vice-presidential picks of all time, in the form of extremist Sarah Palin: “You can recover from a lot of things in politics, change the narrative etc – but not from killing a dog.“All I will distinctly think about Kristi Noem now is that she murdered a puppy who was ‘acting up’ – which is obviously cruel and insane. Good luck with that VP pick[,] lady.”According to New River Strategies: “While 37% of Republicans are still not sure if [Noem] would be a good choice, 84% of them report liking or loving dogs – not a promising sign.”Fourteen percent of respondents to the poll still thought Noem would be a good choice for vice-president to Trump. Among Republicans, 21% thought Noem would be a good pick, to 42% who did not.Among self-identified “very conservative voters”, 28% said Noem would be a good choice, against 32% who said she would not.New River noted: “A plurality of Americans who do not like dogs still disapprove of the governor’s action. While 87% of Americans who love dogs disapprove of what the governor did, so too do 48% of Americans who do not care for the animals.”Politico, which reported the New River poll, also noted Noem had fallen in a ranking of potential Trump running mates offered by PredictIt, an online betting firm.By Saturday, Noem had fallen from second, behind Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator, to fourth, also behind Elise Stefanik, the New York representative, and Tulsi Gabbard, a former representative and Democratic presidential hopeful whose own campaign book, out on Tuesday, does not contain any scenes of shooting puppies.Noem responded to reports about her book by saying: “We love animals, but tough decisions like this happen all the time on a farm.” She added that her family recently put down three horses.Her communications director, Ian Fury, cited polling showing Noem as the only potential Trump vice-presidential pick with a positive favourability rating in four battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.“This is why the liberal media is so eager to attack Kristi Noem,” Fury said. “She’s the potential running mate they fear most.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe poll from Kaplan Strategies, which describes itself as bipartisan, was conducted the previous weekend but released on Friday, the day the Guardian broke the story of Noem, Cricket the dog and the unnamed goat.On Saturday, the Guardian attempted to contact public figures whose glowing recommendations of Noem’s book are printed on its jacket and introductory pages.In his blurb, Trump calls Noem “a tremendous leader, one of the best”, adding: “This book, it’s a winner … you’ve got to read it!”Asked whether Trump had read the whole book before recommending it, and whether he had comment about the controversy over Noem’s tale of killing domestic animals, the former president’s spokesperson, Steven Cheung, did not immediately respond.Fox News spokespeople did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Rachel Campos-Duffy, a host whose quote on Noem’s book salutes her “common sense and fearless fight for freedom”, adding: “Get ready to be inspired!”No Going Back is also blurbed by Chaya Raichik, creator of the trolling Libs of TikTok social media account; James Golden, also known as Bo Snerdley, formerly sidekick to the late rightwing shock jock Rush Limbaugh; and Riley Gaines, a former college swimmer who campaigns against transgender participation in women’s sports.By Saturday, Raichik had not commented about Noem’s dog-killing confession. Snerdley had reposted a Daily Mail version of the Guardian report.Gaines, who calls Noem’s book “the perfect blueprint for young Americans on how to move our nation forward”, did not comment on the controversy over Noem’s decision to kill a 14-month-old dog. She did, however, post a video of eight puppies sleeping in a pile on a pink rug.“The pups have arrived!” she wrote. “Be still my heart.” More

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      How one Wisconsin man plagued election offices and stoked mistrust

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      Peter Bernegger has spent the last three and a half years bombarding local election offices in Wisconsin with litigation and accusations of fraud. He’s brought at least 18 lawsuits against election clerks and offices in state court, and on social media, he has relentlessly promoted his litigation and circulated false claims about election fraud in the swing state.His campaign has recently landed him in legal trouble – Bernegger now faces criminal charges for allegedly falsifying a subpoena in connection with a lawsuit against the state’s top election office.It’s an escalation for the 61-year-old activist from New London, Wisconsin, who according to court documents, interviews with election officials and emails obtained by the Guardian, has drained election offices of already-limited resources and stoked mistrust in the electoral process in his years-long quest to uncover election fraud.In the universe of activists who dispute the results of the 2020 election and have spent years searching for evidence of widespread voter fraud, Bernegger’s star power is small. He has not served on a Trump campaign team, no high-powered conservative law firms have taken on his cases and his media appearances are mostly relegated to interviews with fringe podcasts on the rightwing YouTube alternative Rumble.But his efforts prove that in a country where election offices are chronically underfunded and heavily scrutinized, a single, relatively unknown person can exercise an outsize, and detrimental, impact on election administration.In response to a request for comment, Bernegger did not address the claims raised in this article except to call them “false and misleading” and potentially defamatory.Bernegger became active in “election integrity” efforts in the wake of the 2020 election, developing an audience during the Wisconsin state legislature’s investigation into allegations of election fraud.Led by the “Stop the Steal” activist and former state supreme court justice Michael Gableman, Wisconsin’s legislative inquiry into election malfeasance ultimately revealed no evidence of a plot. But it elevated the profiles of numerous election-doubting activists in the state, including Bernegger, a self-described “investigative journalist” who claimed to have discovered thousands of illegal votes cast during the 2020 election using a “supercomputer” and a team of vigilante researchers.In 2022, he went on to promote his claims in front of the state legislature, spending two hours describing his findings to the assembly committee on elections and campaigns.Now, in Wisconsin’s sprawling community of election workers, Bernegger is known for sending barrages of requests for election-related records and suing when he is dissatisfied with the results. Since 2020, Bernegger, who is not an attorney, has represented himself in his many lawsuits against election clerks and offices, sometimes abandoning them before they are concluded. In at least two cases, Bernegger’s complaints were dismissed on the grounds that he had simply stopped responding.In 2022, the Wisconsin elections commission voted to fine Bernegger a dollar for every claim of voter fraud the bipartisan group found to be frivolous in nature; his penalties amounted to $2,403.Election officials, especially those whose small offices are already strained, worry that speaking about Bernegger publicly will invite more litigation, tying up more crucial time and resources.“I think the biggest thing is fear of retaliation – you know, and what’s he going to do to make our lives more difficult, especially as we go into the 24 election cycle,” said a Wisconsin clerk whose office Bernegger has sued, but who asked for anonymity, citing the concern that Bernegger would renew his legal efforts. “It’s also just demoralizing to have somebody constantly attacking your integrity.”In addition to filing public records requests, Bernegger has directly contacted clerks across the state with confusing and misleading emails. In an email sent on 25 October, 2022, for example, Bernegger claimed, incorrectly, that the state’s electronic poll books, called Badger Books, required federal certification and that by using them, officials could be sued or face criminal charges.“Any Clerk who uses Badger Books in any election, especially a federal one, will be breaking the law. This is directly on Meagan Wolfe,” wrote Bernegger, referring to Wisconsin’s top non-partisan election official who has become the focus of election-related conspiracy theories. “She put you, the Clerks, in this precarious legal position.”Scott McDonell, the Dane county clerk, said municipal clerks across the county had reached out to him multiple times to flag Bernegger’s misleading communications.In Dane county, where the state capital, Madison, is located, election conspiracy theories play a minimal role in local politics. As a result, McDonell is less politically vulnerable than officials in deep-red jurisdictions. He said he worries more about election clerks overseeing offices in smaller, less resourced municipalities in parts of the state where doubts about the results of the 2020 election have persisted.“He’s causing them a lot of problems – in a lot of ways, more than me,” said McDonell. In total, McDonell estimates that his office had spent more than 100 hours on Bernegger’s inquiries and litigation.At least one of Wisconsin’s more than 1,800 election clerks is receptive to Bernegger’s claims. In response to an email from the Guardian inquiring about Bernegger’s legal efforts, Donald Hayes, the clerk in Richmond – a town of just over 1,000 in southern Wisconsin – wrote that he believed that the “right to freely elect our President was stolen from us during the last Presidential election” and that Bernegger’s efforts were an attempt “to bring light to that tragedy”.“As an election official, I discovered evidence from our very own election process, thanks to Mr Bernegger’s inquiry, that confirmed my suspicions,” wrote Hayes.Hayes did not respond to a question about the evidence Bernegger purportedly uncovered.At times, clerks said Bernegger’s activism borders on harassment. In 2023, the Wisconsin state capitol police warned him that his conduct towards Wolfe, the chief administrator of the Wisconsin elections commission, could be interpreted as “stalking”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHe is also known to name-check election workers on social media, where he enjoys a modest but enthusiastic following.In April, he posted the full names of two Dominion Voting Systems employees and insinuated, baselessly, that they were acting on behalf of the Chinese government. ​​In an email to the Guardian, a spokesperson for Dominion called Bernegger’s tweets identifying employees by first and last name “yet another example of how lies about Dominion have damaged our company, subjected officials and Dominion employees to harassment, and baselessly diminished the public’s faith in elections”, adding that “allegations that Dominion employees anywhere tried to interfere with any election are completely false”.Years before he began his relentless hunt for evidence of election interference, Bernegger focused on a very different venture: entrepreneurship and startups.According to court filings, Bernegger and an associate raised hundreds of thousands of dollars from investors to bankroll a collection of companies in the food processing business. Among other ventures Bernegger touted was a company called We-Gel, which he claimed was capable of harnessing waste from catfish processing plants to produce an alternative form of gelatin – one that could be used widely in pharmaceuticals.But there was a problem. The business partners “were never able to manufacture a sellable product”, according to charges brought by the justice department in a 2008 case before a US district court in Mississippi. A jury convicted Bernegger of mail fraud and bank fraud for his participation in the scheme.Bernegger successfully appealed the initial amount of restitution down to $1.7m, from the approximately $2.2m initially ordered, but was unable to convince the courts to reduce his prison sentence of 70 months.It is not clear how Bernegger, whose grandparents founded the sausage and meat company Hillshire Farm, sustains his election-related efforts today.Bernegger is listed as the agent of two organizations registered in Wisconsin called Election Watch, Inc. and Wisconsin Center for Election Justice, Inc. In 2022, the latter group garnered $12,500 from an organization founded by the Trump ally and former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne, according to the group’s most recent tax filings.Amid his prosecution for allegedly doctoring a subpoena, Bernegger circulated a call for donations on a crowdfunding website. As of 25 April, he had received a smattering of small donations from individuals, amounting to just over $4,500 – far less than the fundraiser’s stated goal of $45,000.Even as Bernegger’s criminal proceedings wear on, which he describes as “politically motivated”, he continues to spread alarming and unsubstantiated claims about elections on the messaging app Telegram and on X, where he maintains 25,500 followers.Election officials worry he will ramp up his activism ahead of the 2024 general presidential election.In an 8 April post – six days after Wisconsin’s 2024 presidential primary – Bernegger claimed that the clerk of Ozaukee county was unable to certify the election. “Dominion modems,” he wrote, “failed to transmit.” In the post, which was shared 1,600 times, Bernegger wrote that the clerk was “panicking” and “liberal Dem observers are going berserk”.In fact, in Ozaukee county, which encompasses some of Milwaukee’s northern suburbs, the election results were certified promptly – and Karen Niemuth, the Ozaukee county clerk, was far from panicked.“I don’t even have an increased heart rate,” Niemuthsaid, “because my canvass is complete, and it is certified, and there were no issues.” More

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      How the Trump trial is playing in Maga world: sublime indifference, collective shrug

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      In one America, he cuts a diminished, humbled figure during coverage that runs from morn till night. “He seems considerably older and he seems annoyed, resigned, maybe angry,” said broadcaster Rachel Maddow after seeing Donald Trump up close in court. “He seems like a man who is miserable to be here.”But in the other America – that of Fox News, far-right podcasts and the Make America Great Again (Maga) base – the trial of the former president over a case involving a hush-money payment to an adult film performer is playing out very differently.Here, anger at what is seen as political persecution meets with another emotion: sublime indifference. Barely a handful of Trump supporters bother to protest each day outside the court in New York, a Democratic stronghold. The trial receives less prominence in conservative media, which prefers to devote airtime to other national news including protests on university campuses against the war in Gaza.The divergence ensures that, with TV cameras not permitted in court, two rival narratives are forming around the first criminal trial of an ex-US president. In one telling, Trump is a philander who falsified business records to illegally influence the 2016 presidential election. In the other, he is the victim of a justice department conspiracy designed to rob the Republican nominee of victory in 2024.Michael Steele, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, said: “The minds in those orbits are already made up. If you’re listening to [far-right podcaster] Steve Bannon, you’re not going to be convinced by any other outcome except not guilty. If you are hyperventilating over coverage that speaks to Donald Trump’s guilt, then you’re not going to be happy unless he’s found guilty.”The trial, which began in earnest this week with prosecution and defence arguments, would already be devastating for any conventional politician. The former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about his tabloid’s efforts to protect Trump from stories that could hurt his electoral chances using a “catch-and-kill” scheme. The capricious defendant is also awaiting a ruling on whether he will be held in contempt for violating a gag order, an offence he has been accused of 14 times.View image in fullscreenThe trial has dominated cable news networks such as CNN and MSNBC to the extent that they have faced criticism for obsessing over details such as Trump’s daily commute to court and his demeanour once inside. But in the Maga universe, there is a collective shrug.Matt Gertz, a senior fellow at the watchdog Media Matters for America, said: “The rightwing media very much does not want to be talking about this week. You see both CNN and MSNBC covering the trial pretty much throughout as it plays out, whereas over on Fox it’s one of many stories that they’re covering and not a particularly prominent one at that.”Fox News, America’s most watched cable television network, has similarly played down past Trump dramas such as the impeachment trials and the congressional panel investigating the January 6 attack, Gertz noted. “You see a similar situation where news outlets are providing constant coverage of big breaking news events and Fox News is feeding its audience its typical culture war mix and avoiding talking about what is quite clearly bad news for their candidate of choice.”When Trump-friendly networks do turn to the trial, they give viewers an alternative narrative from the one dominating CNN, MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post. After a hearing has wrapped for the day, Fox News regularly carries live coverage of Trump’s diatribes against the judge, Biden and the cold temperature of the courtroom.It has also amplified his narrative of martyrdom. Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker, told Fox News: “This is literally like some of the civil rights workers in Mississippi in the 1960s.” Jesse Watters, a co-host on The Five on the same network, worried that it is unfair to make a man who is almost 80 sit for hour after hour. “It’s not healthy,” he said. “He needs sunlight. He needs activity. He needs to be walking around. He needs action. It is really cruel and unusual punishment to make a man do that, and any time he moves, they threaten to throw him in prison.”They have even defended Trump – who regularly mocks Biden as “Sleepy Joe” – for falling asleep in court. Sean Hannity, a Fox News host, said on his radio show: “By the way, I think I’d fall asleep if I was there.” His colleague Laura Ingraham added: “I’d be falling asleep at that trial, too.”Gertz observed: “They’re basically making the case that actually it’s good to be unable to not nod off in the middle of your own trial. These are people who have spent the last several years attacking Joe Biden for supposedly being too old, too enfeebled to be president. They understand that their viewers, to the extent that they are interested in the trial at all, want to hear full-throated support for Donald Trump, and so they are finding ways to provide that.”The trial has provoked fury on the far right and vows of retribution. Mike Davis, a lawyer and Trump ally, told Bannon’s War Room podcast that Democrats are “running a criminal conspiracy to violate the civil rights of President Trump” and promised to “rain hell on these Biden Democrats”. Davis warned: “I would say to these guys, lawyer up.”View image in fullscreenInterviews with longstanding Trump supporters found the media-coverage split screen translates to one’s view of the trial. There is no sign that the airing of the charges that Trump falsified business records to cover up a hush-money payment is shifting opinions.Steve Robinson, 75, an engineer and contractor from Leesburg, Virginia, is following the trial via the rightwing channels One America News Network and Newsmax and, occasionally, Fox News. “No CNN,” he said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionRobinson commented: “The charges are made up and it’s a travesty of justice. It’s embarrassing for us as a country that’s happening when there is no evidence and there is no damage to anyone and it’s obviously a political witch-hunt. The leftists are enjoying it.”Lynette Kennedy McQuain, 63, an insurance salesperson from Lost Creek, West Virginia, said: “New York should spend their tax dollars on criminal behaviour, things that are going on in the city rather than trying to take down a former president. It’s not illegal to pay money to quiet something if you want to.”The current trial is seen as potentially the least serious of the four criminal cases against Trump but is likely to be the only one completed before the election. McQuain added: “It’s gotten to the place now where there’s so many trials that you wonder where it’s going to end.“How many more trials are we going to put Donald Trump through? He’s a presidential candidate again. Come on, that’s a little crazy to me. The whole country sees it that way except a few left-leaning people who just want to get Trump. Judicially we’ve got a whole bunch of other things we could be fighting.”Michael Sheppard, 42, a home builder from Canton, North Carolina, who has been following the trial “passingly” via the social media platform X, said: “I know the trial exists. I know the basics behind it but I really don’t care what they say.”Sheppard believes that it is common practice to pay someone off out of court if the alternative would be more costly. He intends to vote for Trump in November but added: “I wish we had somebody right of Trump. Trump’s a centrist.”Opinion polls have tightened in recent weeks with Biden closing the gap on Trump. It is uncertain what impact the trial will have on the election. The former president himself is thought unlikely to testify, but the court is likely to hear lurid, sordid details that even Trump’s allies in the media might find hard to resist. He is not out of danger yet.Charlie Sykes, a political columnist and author of How the Right Lost Its Mind, said: “The danger of this trial for Trump and for the rightwing media is that many of the details are going to be quite salacious, quite dramatic and easily understood.“People are going to understand a Playboy model saying ‘I had an affair’ as opposed to some of the more arcane things. It’s going to be interesting to see how the rightwing media covers it. Fox News are going to be torn between ‘this is pretty compelling material’ versus ‘it’s also pretty damaging’.”But the experience of the past eight years suggest that Trump’s base understand who he is and are willing to accept it, sexual peccadilloes and all. Sean Spicer, his first White House press secretary, said: “I would argue that after four years of Trump in office and almost four years of Biden, people have pretty much made up their mind who they’re with and this is largely going to be a get-out-the-vote-operation election.“I don’t think anyone seeing anything right now on television or reading it online is somehow going to learn something new about Donald Trump.” More

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      Civil War is a terrifying film, but Trump: The Sequel will be a real-life horror show | Simon Tisdall

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      Director, cast and critics all agree: Civil War, the movie depicting America tearing itself to bloody bits while a cowardly, authoritarian president skulks in the White House, is not about Donald Trump. But it is, really.Likewise, the first ever criminal trial of a US president, now playing to huge audiences in New York, is ostensibly about claims that Trump fraudulently bought the silence of a former porn star called Stormy after a tacky Lake Tahoe tryst. But it isn’t, really.Both movie and trial are about a Trump second term. They’re about sex, lies and Access Hollywood videotape, about trust and betrayal, truth and division. They’re about democracy in America, where political feuds and vendettas swirl, guns proliferate and debates over civil rights are neither civil nor right.Alex Garland’s smash-hit “post-ideological” dystopian nightmare and the Manhattan courthouse peak-time showdown are both ultimately about the same things: the uses and abuses of power, about a nation’s journey to extremes where, as in Moby’s song, it falls apart.Talking of disintegration, what a diminished figure Trump now cuts in court. Slouched, round-shouldered and silenced alongside his lawyers, he acts up, sulky, aggrieved, childishly petulant. The room is cold, he whinges. Potential jurors rudely insult him to his face! It’s all so unfair.Trump never did dignified, not even in the Oval Office. Yet even by his tawdry standards, this daily demeaning before an unbending judge is irretrievably, publicly humiliating. The loss of face and sustaining swagger begin to look terminal. For Trump the alleged criminal conspirator, as opposed to Trump the presidential comeback king, the familiar campaign cry of “Four More Years!” has a disturbing ring. Four years in chokey is what he faces if found guilty on 34 felony charges.It’s no coincidence, so Trump camp followers believe, that Civil War premiered in election year. No surprise, either, that a Democratic district attorney pushed for the trial. Or that latest polling by the “liberal media” suggests Trump is losing ground to Joe Biden.Despite all that, the Make America Great Again screenplay is unchanging. Trump’s blockbuster second march on Washington is merely on pause, Maga-men say. He’s making an epic sequel and he’ll be back in November with all guns blazing – which is the problem, in a nutshell.If you doubt it, just look at Pennsylvania. Even as the defendant, dozy and defiant by turns, snoozed in court and slandered witnesses on social media, this same presumed 2024 Republican champion was effortlessly sweeping last week’s party primary with 83% of the vote.View image in fullscreenThere’s no real-world contradiction here. A grumpy Trump scowling at the bench and a Civil War-like wannabe dictator hot for White House power and glory are united in one unlovely, vicious personage. Two sides of the same bent cent. The list of Trump’s crimes for which he has yet to be tried extends far beyond the New York indictment and the charge sheets in three other pending cases. Like Tom Ripley, the sociopathic narcissist anti-hero of Netflix’s popular TV mini-series, Trump is violently dangerous beyond all knowing.The lethal 6 January insurrection he incited and applauded was stark treason against the republic. No argument. The racist relativism of Charlottesville in 2017 foreshadowed recent, unrepentant talk of “poisoning the blood of our country”. His corrosive words burn like acid through the social fabric. No Civil War paramilitary crazy could wish for more than Trump’s eager feeding of America’s gun addiction, support for domestic execution and assassination overseas, collaboration with murderous dictators, debasement of the supreme court and hostility to open government, free speech and impartial reporting.No Ripley-style conman or fraudster could hope to emulate the master criminal’s arm-twisting of Ukraine to dig up dirt on Biden’s son, Hunter, his political protection rackets and shameless nepotism, his suborning of his party, Congress and the legal system or his rich man’s contempt for the ordinary Joe who actually pays taxes.A prospective second Trump term presages obsessive score-settling at home and abject appeasement abroad. Judges, law officers, witnesses, female accusers, military men, diplomats, academics and critical media may be among the early victims of a national revenge tragedy – a personalised purge of the institutions of state that could prove fatal to democracy.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump’s fawning obsequiousness towards Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and vendetta against Kyiv’s leadership, spell disaster for Ukraine. Nor can there be much confidence, for all his bluster, that he would stand up to China should it invade Taiwan.Prepare, too, for a likely European rupture and trade war, a Nato split and an unravelling of 75 years of transatlantic collaboration. Prepare for an out-of-control global arms race, unchecked nuclear weapons proliferation on Earth and in space and the wholesale abandonment of climate crisis goals. A Trump success in November, with all the ensuing chaos, schism and constitutional outrages, would bring closer both an end to peaceful, rational debate within America and the demise of US global leadership.So truly, is Civil War so very far off the mark? Is it really not about Trump and Trumpism? It’s certainly more comforting to frame the movie as an entertainment, to interpret its studied avoidance of direct references to present-day politics as reassurance that, at heart, it’s essentially make-believe. But that denialist view is itself a type of escapism or wishful thinking. It won’t silence the guns.In one untypical, symbolic scene, the war-weary photojournalist played by Kirsten Dunst, all body armour and pursed lips, tries on a pretty dress in a downtown store insulated from the fighting. It is as if she, like America, is trying, fleetingly, to recover her humanity.It’s unclear whether she succeeds. More hopeful moments like that, and a good deal less trumpery, are badly needed now. Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s Foreign Affairs Commentator
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      A physician, a lawyer, a CEO: the 84 fake electors who allegedly tried to steal the 2020 election

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      With the indictment announced in Arizona this week, 36 out of 84 people who signed certificates falsely alleging they were electors for Donald Trump have now been criminally charged.Kris Mayes is the third state attorney general to indict part of the slate of people who signed the false documents with plans to turn them over to Mike Pence, the US vice-president, to steal the election from Joe Biden. Attorneys general in Michigan and Nevada have also brought charges, and in Wisconsin, fake electors face a civil lawsuit.
      36 have been criminally indicted (one has had charges dropped)
      10 face a civil lawsuit
      14 have been subpoenaed by Congress as part of the January 6 investigation
      This year, as the country prepares for a rematch between Trump and Biden, the majority of the 84 people have not been prosecuted criminally. Some of the fake electors, including those in Pennsylvania, are unlikely to be charged because of how the document they signed there was worded; their documents said their electoral votes would only be counted if they were determined to be the “duly elected and qualified electors” for Pennsylvania.A small number of the 84 people – who in 2020 mostly were local Republican party leaders and activists – have been elected to public office or appointed to positions of power since the scheme.
      Seven have been elected to office
      Seven have lost elections
      Four have been appointed or nominated to positions of power
      One is currently running for federal office
      It’s unclear whether Trump and his allies would use a similar playbook to try to steal the next election if he loses in November. He and others in his orbit are already laying the groundwork to claim voter fraud.As of now, a number of the people who signed false elector certificates have positions of authority and could help Trump if he were to attempt something similar again.View image in fullscreenView image in fullscreenArizona (11)On Wednesday, Kris Mayes, the state attorney general, announced that Arizona’s 11 fake electors and seven other Trump allies had been indicted for their role in the scheme.Tyler Bowyer: Bowyer is the chief operating officer of Turning Point USA, a Phoenix-based non-profit organization, and an Arizona committee member for the Republican National Committee. He has called on the RNC to “immediately indemnify” those who participated in what he calls the “contingent elector plan”. Recently he has also led trainings for Turning Point to encourage Republicans to cast early ballots.Nancy Cottle: Cottle was one of two Arizona fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack. She was the chair of Arizona’s fake elector delegation.Jake Hoffman: Hoffman is an Arizona state senator, elected in 2022, and was previously a state representative. He founded the legislature’s far-right freedom caucus and announced in March that he’s running to represent the state as a member of the Republican National Committee. He also runs a conservative digital-marketing company, Rally Forge, that was banned from Facebook and suspended from Twitter for engaging in “coordinated inauthentic behavior” on behalf of Turning Point Action, an affiliate of Turning Point USA.Anthony T Kern: Kern is an Arizona state senator, elected in 2022, and is currently running for a seat in the US Congress to represent Arizona’s eighth district. He was an Arizona state representative from 2015 until he lost his seat in the 2020 election. He has introduced a senate proposal calling for the state legislature to decide on presidential electors instead of adhering to a popular vote. Kern participated in the January 6 riots in Washington, which he has called a peaceful demonstration.James Lamon: Lamon ran for the US Senate to represent Arizona in 2022, losing in the Republican primary.Robert Montgomery: Montgomery was appointed to a seat on the Palominas fire district board in 2022 and is the former head of the Cochise county Republican committee.Samuel I Moorhead: Moorhead serves as the second vice-chair of the Gila county Arizona Republican party.Loraine B Pellegrino: Pellegrino, the secretary of Arizona’s fake elector delegation, was also subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack. Pellegrino has served as president of Ahwatukee Republican Women and was previously president of the Arizona Federation of Republican Women.Greg Safsten: Safsten was the executive director of the Republican party of Arizona during the 2020 election. Records show that he had been in communication with Kenneth Chesebro, a Trump ally and the architect of the fake elector plan, with instructions on how to carry out the plan.Kelli Ward: Ward is an osteopathic physician who served as the chair of the Arizona Republican party from 2019 to 2023. Following the 2020 election, Ward filed a number of lawsuits to nullify Arizona’s results, in support of Trump’s effort to prove the election had been stolen. She previously served in the Arizona state senate. Records show that Ward had also been in communication with Kenneth Chesebro, a Trump ally and the architect of the fake elector plan, with instructions on how to carry out the plan. Two days before the Arizona delegation gathered, Ward emailed various people connected to Trump’s campaign about the effort, according to records. She was subponead in 2022 as part of the January 6 select committee’s investigation, and filed an unsuccessful lawsuit to block the subpoena.Michael Ward: Kelli Ward’s husband is an emergency medicine physician. He was also subpoenaed in 2022 as part of the January 6 select committee’s investigation and, with Kelli Ward, filed an unsuccessful lawsuit to block it.Georgia (16)Three of Georgia’s fake electors were named in the Fulton county indictment of Trump and 18 of his allies for efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in the state. Several other fake electors struck immunity deals or plea agreements with the office of Fani Willis, Fulton county’s district attorney.Mark Amick: Amick is a member of the election feasibility committee in Milton, Georgia, and the Georgia Republican Foundation. In 2020, he served as a poll watcher in Milton county and testified in a hearing after the election that he saw more than 9,000 votes wrongly go to Joe Biden during the first Georgia recount.Joseph Brannan: Brannan is the former treasurer of the Georgia Republican party. He is reportedly “unindicted co-conspirator individual 9” in Fani Willis’s indictment of Trump and his allies in Fulton county. He received an email from Kenneth Chesebro before the scheme with logistics on how the Trump campaign hoped alternate electors would cast their votes.James “Ken” Carroll: Carroll, formerly the assistant secretary for the Georgia Republican party, recently ran unsuccessfully to be the state GOP’s second vice-chair. He told the Washington Post that, knowing what he does now, he would not have agreed to cast an electoral college vote for Trump. Carroll is a witness for the state in the prosecution of Trump and others in Fulton county, according to a court filing.Brad Carver: Carver, a lawyer and member of the Republican National Lawyers Association, was also investigated by the Georgia state bar in 2022 for his role in the scheme following a complaint by a legal watchdog.Vikki Townsend Consiglio: Consiglio is a former assistant treasurer for the Georgia Republican party. In 2022, Brian Kemp, the Georgia governor, reappointed her to the state soil and water conservation commission. Townsend is a witness for the state in the prosecution of Trump and others in Fulton county, according to a court filing.John Downey: Downey was involved with the Cobb county Republican party in 2020.Carolyn Hall Fisher: Fisher is a former first vice-chair for the Georgia Republican party. She is a witness for the state in the prosecution of Trump and others in Fulton county, according to a court filing.Gloria Kay Godwin: Godwin is a local Republican party leader in Blackshear. She is a witness for the state in the prosecution of Trump and others in Fulton county, according to a court filing.David G Hanna: Hanna was the CEO and co-founder of a financial technology company.Mark W Hennessy: In 2023, Brian Kemp, the Georgia governor, named Hennessy, the owner of several Georgia car dealerships, to the board of natural resources.Burt Jones: Jones is currently the lieutenant governor of Georgia, a position he’s held since being elected in 2022. Previously he was a member of the Georgia state senate for 10 years. Before January 6, Jones planned to deliver a letter to Mike Pence calling on him to delay the tally of electoral college votes, but he never delivered it, according to reporting from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. In 2022, a judge ruled that Fani Willis cannot target Jones in Fulton county alongside Trump and others because of a conflict of interest (Willis held a fundraiser for his eventual Democratic opponent in the lieutenant governor’s race), but state prosecutor Pete Skandalakis said recently that he will lead the investigation into Jones’ alleged role in trying to overturn the election. Jones is reportedly “unindicted co-conspirator individual 8” in Fani Willis’s indictment of Trump in Fulton county.Cathy Latham: Latham, who was the Coffee county Republican party chair during the 2020 election, was indicted along with Trump and 17 others in Fulton county for her efforts to help Trump overturn the election. Latham allegedly helped breach and tamper with election equipment in Coffee county.Daryl Moody: Moody, an attorney, is chair of the board of governors for the Georgia Republican Foundation. In 2022 the Georgia state bar investigated him for his role in the scheme following a complaint by a legal watchdog.David Shafer: Shafer, who was the chair of the state GOP during the 2020 election, was indicted along with Trump and 17 others in Fulton county for his efforts to help Trump overturn the election. According to prosecutors, Shafer played a key role in organizing the slate of fake electors, convening them in the state capitol and telling them that “thousands of people” voted illegally in the state. He was also a Georgia state senator from 2003 to 2019. In 2018, he ran for lieutenant governor and lost in the primary. He was subpoenaed by the January 6 committee in Congress.View image in fullscreenShawn Still: Still is a state senator in Georgia, elected in 2022. He was finance chair of the Georgia GOP during the 2020 election, and was indicted along with Trump and 17 others in Fulton county for his efforts to help Trump overturn the election. He was the secretary of the fake elector meeting in the state capitol. He was also subpoenaed by the January 6 committee in Congress. In September 2023, a three-person panel appointed by the governor didn’t recommend that he be removed from the state senate while the Fulton county case is pending.CB Yadav: A small-business owner in Camden county, Yadav is a member of the Georgians First commission under the governor’s office.Michigan (16)In July 2023, Dana Nessel, the Michigan attorney general, charged all 16 of the state’s fake electors with eight felonies each. They all pleaded not guilty. One has since had his charges dropped. A judge is currently considering whether to send the rest to trial.Kathy Berden: Berden is a national committee member of the Republican party of Michigan. She was one of two Michigan fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.Hank Choate: Choate, a dairy farmer, served as chair of the Jackson county Republican party.Amy Facchinello: Facchinello was elected in 2020 to serve on the school board in Grand Blanc and has been the subject of protests over her QAnon social media posts. Facchinello refused to resign, though there have been efforts to recall her.Clifford Frost: A real estate agent, Frost ran unsuccessfully for the Macomb county board of commissioners in 2022. He has also run unsuccessfully to represent the 28th district in the Michigan house. He is one of two of the state’s fake electors to try to get the felony charges against them dismissed because of comments made by the attorney general Dana Nessel, that the electors had been “brainwashed”.Stanley Grot: Grot is the Shelby township clerk, appointed in 2012, and ran unsuccessfully for the Michigan house in 2022. After the Michigan attorney general charged Grot, the state stripped him of his ability to administer elections, but he remains in office.John Haggard: Haggard was one of the plaintiffs in a lawsuit against Michigan officials in which he sought to overturn the 2020 election results.Mari-Ann Henry: Henry is treasurer of the seventh congressional district Republican committee. She is one of two of the state’s fake electors to try to get the felony charges against them dismissed because of comments made by the attorney general Dana Nessel, that the electors had been “brainwashed”.Timothy King: King was one of the plaintiffs in a lawsuit against Michigan officials in which he sought to overturn the 2020 election results.Michele Lundgren: Lundgren was the Republican nominee in 2022 for a Detroit-based seat in the Michigan house, but lost in the general election.Meshawn Maddock: Maddock is the former Michigan Republican party co-chair and is the co-owner of A-1 Bail Bonds, along with her spouse, the state representative Matt Maddock. CNN reported that she bragged about the Trump campaign’s involvement in the fake elector scheme. She and her husband spoke at a pro-Trump event in DC the day before the January 6 insurrection.James Renner: Renner has served as a precinct delegate and volunteer with the Michigan Republican party. He is the only Michigan fake elector to get his felony charges dropped after he agreed to “cooperate fully” with the attorney general’s investigation. He then testified in February that he did not know how the electoral process worked and “never would have challenged it” had he known it was illegal.Mayra Rodriguez: Rodriguez served as the chair and secretary of Michigan’s Republican electors. She was one of two Michigan fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.Rose Rook: Rook is the former Van Buren county GOP chair.Marian Sheridan: Sheridan is grassroots vice-chair for the Michigan Republican party. She was one of the plaintiffs in a lawsuit against Michigan officials in which she sought to overturn the 2020 election results.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionKen Thompson: Thompson was brought in to replace a GOP elector who was “uncomfortable with the whole thing” and refused to participate, a state GOP official testified to the House January 6 commission.Kent Vanderwood: Vanderwood is the mayor of Wyoming, Michigan, winning election in 2022. He was previously a longtime member of the city council in Wyoming, a small city near Grand Rapids.New Mexico (5)New Mexico prosecutors investigated the state’s fake elector scheme and determined that nothing in state election law applies to the participants’ conduct, according to the department’s final report issued in January.Anissa Ford-Tinnin: Ford-Tinnin is the former executive director of the state Republican party.Lupe Garcia: Garcia is a business owner.Deborah W Maestas: Maestas is former chair of the Republican party of New Mexico. She was one of two New Mexico fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.Jewll Powdrell: Powdrell chaired the state fake elector meeting and was one of two New Mexico fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.Rosie Tripp: Tripp was a national committee member for the Republican party of New Mexico, a former Socorro county commissioner and a former city council member in Socorro.Nevada (6)A Nevada grand jury in December indicted the six state fake electors and charged them with two felonies each. They have all pleaded not guilty. Under the current schedule, they will not stand trial until next year.James DeGraffenreid: DeGraffenreid has served as vice-chair of the Nevada Republican party. He was one of two New Mexico fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack. He was summoned to testify by Fulton county prosecutors about his communications with Kenneth Chesebro about the scheme and was also called to testify in special counsel Jack Smith’s federal investigation of Trump.Jim Hindle: Hindle runs elections in Storey county, Nevada, where he was elected clerk in 2022. He was previously vice-chair of the Nevada Republican committee.Jesse Law: Law is chair of the Clark county Republican party and was a staffer on the Trump campaign. He announced in December that he’s running for state assembly.Michael J McDonald: The chair of the Nevada Republican party, McDonald is a former member of the Las Vegas city council. He was one of two Nevada fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack. He was also called to testify in special counsel Jack Smith’s federal investigation of Trump.Shawn Meehan: Meehan is a retired air force veteran who serves on the Nevada Republican central committee and the Douglas county Republican party. He recently said he launched an effort to “guard” the constitution.Eileen Rice: Rice serves on the board of the Douglas county Republican party.Pennsylvania (20)Pennsylvania’s 20 fake electors are unlikely to face criminal charges because of the stipulation written on their electoral vote documents.Bill Bachenberg: Bachenberg, who chaired the state’s slate of fake electors, is the millionaire owner of Lehigh Valley Sporting Clays. He allegedly funded efforts to uncover voter fraud in Pennsylvania and other states. He was involved in Arizona’s sham “audit” and was subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.Lou Barletta: Barletta served as a member of the US House from 2011 to 2019, and as mayor of Hazleton, Pennsylvania, from 2000 to 2010. In 2022, he unsuccessfully ran in the Republican gubernatorial primary.Tom Carroll: Carroll ran unsuccessfully in 2019 for district attorney in Northampton county and refused to concede the race because of “overwhelming irregularities” in how the election was administered. He brought a lawsuit against state and local officials alleging election law violations in the 2020 election.Ted Christian: Christian was the Pennsylvania state director for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.Chuck Coccodrilli: Coccodrilli was a board member with the Pennsylvania Great Frontier Pac. He died in October 2021 after an illness.Bernadette Comfort: Comfort is the vice-chair for the Pennsylvania Republican party.View image in fullscreenSam DeMarco III: DeMarco has been an at-large representative on the Allegheny county council since 2016. He is also the chair of the Republican committee of Allegheny county. In 2022, he was interviewed by the FBI about his role in the scheme. He recently filed a lawsuit challenging the use of ballot drop off locations in the county, and the county agreed to a settlement.Marcela Diaz-Myers: Diaz-Myers is the chair of the Pennsylvania GOP Hispanic Advisory Council.Christie DiEsposti: DiEsposti is an account representative at Pure Water Technology. She has reportedly moved to Florida.Josephine Ferro: Ferro was Monroe county register from 2015 until losing reelection in 2023. She is the former president of the Pennsylvania Federation of Republican Women. In 2020 and 2022, she was a plaintiff in lawsuits seeking to block voters from being able to correct defective ballots and to stop pre-canvassing of ballots.Charlie Gerow: Gerow is a Republican strategist who ran unsuccessfully in the Republican primary for governor in 2022. He is also former vice-chair of the American Conservative Union, and the CEO of Quantum Communications, a Harrisburg-based public relations firm, where the fake electors met in Pennsylvania in December 2020.Kevin Harley: Harley works with Gerow as managing director of Quantum Communications and has served as a spokesperson for Gerow. He has also worked as press secretary for Tom Corbett, the former Pennsylvania governor.Leah Hoopes: Hoopes served as a poll watcher in 2020 and co-wrote a book about election fraud. She filed a lawsuit against Delaware county, accusing it of mishandling ballots in the 2020 election. She was named as a defendant in a Delaware county voting machine supervisor’s lawsuit alleging that Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that election officials tampered with the election made the supervisor the subject of physical threats.Ash Khare: An immigrant from India and retired engineer, Khare is a member of the Warren county GOP committee.Andre McCoy: McCoy was present at the Maricopa county ballot recount and was involved in the Arizona sham “audit”.Lisa Patton: Patton was the secretary of Pennsylvania’s slate of fake electors and was a member of the Pennsylvania Women for Trump leadership team. She was subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.View image in fullscreenPat Poprik: Poprik is the chair of the Bucks county Republican committee.Andy Reilly: Reilly is a national committee member for the Republican party of Pennsylvania and former secretary for the party. Reilly was previously elected twice to serve as a member of the Delaware county council.Suk Smith: Smith was on the advisory board of Gun Owners/Sportsmen for Trump in 2020.Calvin Tucker: Tucker was deputy chair and director of engagement and advancement for the Pennsylvania Republican party. In 2016, he served as a media surrogate and African-American adviser to Trump’s campaign.Wisconsin (10)A civil lawsuit over the fake electors scheme settled in December. The 10 Republicans acknowledged Biden’s victory and agreed not to serve in the electoral college this year.Mary Buestrin: A former national committee member of the Republican party of Wisconsin.Carol Brunner: Brunner is the former vice-chair of Wisconsin’s first congressional district Republican party.Darryl Carlson: Carlson is the former chair of the sixth congressional district GOP. He ran an unsuccessful campaign in 2014 for the Wisconsin state assembly.Bill Feehan: Feehan is the chair of the third congressional district GOP. In 2022, he sat on an advisory board for the gubernatorial campaign of Rebecca Kleefisch, an election denier who has sued the Wisconsin election commission (WEC) over its administration of the 2020 election, according to American Oversight.Scott Grabins: Grabins is former chair of the Dane county Republican party.Andrew Hitt: The chair of the Republican party of Wisconsin from 2019 until 2021, Hitt was one of two Wisconsin fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack. He was interviewed on 60 Minutes in February and said he feared for his family’s safety if he didn’t sign the fake elector papers.Kathy Kiernan: Kiernan is the second vice-chair of the state Republican party.Kelly Ruh: Ruh is chair of the eighth congressional district Republican party, former alderperson for De Pere, and was one of two Wisconsin fake electors who were subpoenaed by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 attack.Bob Spindell: Spindell has been a Republican commissioner on the Wisconsin election commission since 2019 and is the chair of the Republican fourth congressional district. He was previously the Milwaukee election commissioner for more than 18 years. In 2021, he refused to recuse himself from a vote on whether the WEC should investigate Wisconsin’s false electors.Pam Travis: Travis was the vice-chair of the seventh congressional district GOP and is a former staffer for the US senator Ron Johnson’s 2022 re-election campaign. More

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      Election officials in the US are under threat. A key county just faced a major test ahead of November

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      Everyone seemed determined not to jinx it.Jim Rose, the director of administrative services in Luzerne county in north-eastern Pennsylvania, had been listening to the radio all morning and had not heard “a single peep” about problems at the polls during Pennsylvania’s primary on Tuesday. When he ran into Emily Cook, the county’s acting director of elections, she wasn’t ready to celebrate. It was, after all, only mid-afternoon, and the polls would be open until 8pm.“If you say that, you have to go outside, spin around on your left foot – it has to be your left foot – and throw some salt,” she said.She may have only been half-joking. Cook had reason to be superstitious. While the political significance of Pennsylvania’s primary on Tuesday was somewhat low, the stakes were extremely high. Luzerne county has had a number of high-profile errors in running its elections in recent years, including when multiple precincts ran out of paper in 2022 and ballots were found discarded in the trash in 2020.It has also had extremely high turnover. Cook, 26, is the seventh person to lead the election office since the fall of 2019. Previously the deputy director, she took over the position about two months ago.“I am very conscious of how important it is that I get this right, not just for the department or the county on the whole, but for my own job,” she said in her office. “It feels like a test and preparation for what comes in November.”Election day is a thankless task for Cook and the thousands of other officials charged with the nuts and bolts of administering voting across the US. In a best-case scenario, they are invisible – everything goes smoothly and no one notices the incredibly delicate ballet of details that need to take place to pull off a successful election.But human errors take place all the time, and have increasingly sparked a cascade of wider conspiracy theories. Since the 2020 election, when Donald Trump spread baseless lies about the election, a flood of officials have left the profession, prompting concerns about the widespread loss of institutional knowledge.On Tuesday, Cook had been up since 4am and was responsible for everything from making sure there was enough pizza for employees in the office to fielding reports of issues at the polls. In the span of about an hour and a half, she spoke to a woman who wanted to report what she believed was voter intimidation, talked to an election judge at the polls about some electioneering that may have been getting too rowdy, conducted two television interviews with local reporters, huddled with county lawyers, and made sure dinner was ordered for that evening.There were a few minor issues. There were some aggressive people electioneering for candidates. A small number of voters were told to come back to a polling location when there was an issue with a ballot marking device (they should have been offered an emergency ballot). Someone had placed small flyers of Donald Trump inside a polling machine at one precinct and Cook and another employee were working to get them taken down.View image in fullscreenEn route to one of her interviews, Cook ran into Denise Williams, the chair of the county board of elections, who asked her if she had heard reports that there wasn’t space for a write-in candidate in one of the races. Cook said she would look into it.But these hiccups are somewhat typical in elections and were far from the major issues Luzerne county has faced in the past. By the afternoon, Cook was especially pleased that the county hadn’t had to go to court to petition to extend voting hours – something that happens when there are major issues at the polls.“Never calm, but I’ve definitely seen it more chaotic,” she said. “I think that’s the best we can hope for.”Cook was appointed the acting director on 12 February, giving her a relatively short runway until the primary. She had worked in the election office since 2019 – experience that she drew on as she quickly took over for election day.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionStill, there have been leadership and management lessons she’s learned.“I don’t like to tell people no. I like to find a solution,” she said. “I think that’s part of what burns people out here, trying to keep everyone happy. Because everyone wants something completely different.”One floor above Cook’s office, Romilda Crocamo, the county manager, was also knocking on wood all afternoon. “I’m trying not to jinx it,” she said. “No earthquakes, no sinkholes.”For election day, she wore shoes with the American flag on them and a blue sweatshirt with the word Vote written across it in red. She had arranged for employees in the election office to get the same sweater (Cook and at least one other staffer was wearing the same one). Crocamo, who was also wearing an Avengers-themed lanyard, loves election day, and she confessed that sometimes she wonders if she’s too over the top.Every year around election times, the county needs to recruit employees from other departments to go and help staff the election office.“Historically, people are like ‘I don’t like elections’ – it’s like you’re condemning them to hell,” she said. But this time around she noticed that something had changed. “This time we had so many people who were like … ‘I wanna help.’”Cook agreed there had been a change in the election office after the negative attention the office has received.“There has been a culture change [of] ‘OK, we’re all gonna make this work together.’” More

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      ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?

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      He has been called the Nostradamus of US presidential elections. Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore). But now he is gearing up for perhaps his greatest challenge: Joe Biden v Donald Trump II.Lichtman is a man of parts. The history professor has been teaching at American University in Washington for half a century. He is a former North American 3,000m steeplechase champion and, at 77 – the same age as Trump – aiming to compete in the next Senior Olympics. In 1981 he appeared on the TV quizshow Tic-Tac-Dough and won $110,000 in cash and prizes.That same year he developed his now famous 13 keys to the White House, a method for predicting presidential election results that every four years tantalises the media, intrigues political operatives and provokes sniping from pollsters. Long before talk of the Steele dossier or Mueller investigation, it all began with a Russian reaching out across the cold war divide.“I’d love to tell you I developed my system by ruining my eyes in the archives, by deep contemplation, but if I were to say that, to quote the late great Richard Nixon, that would be wrong,” Lichtman recalls from a book-crowded office on the AU campus. “Like so many discoveries, it was kind of serendipitous.”View image in fullscreenLichtman was a visiting scholar at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena when he met the world’s leading authority in earthquake prediction, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, who had been part of a Soviet delegation that negotiated the limited nuclear test ban treaty with President John F Kennedy in Washington in 1963.Keilis-Borok had fallen in love with American politics and began a collaboration with Lichtman to reconceptualise elections in earthquake terms. That is, as a question of stability (the party holding the White House keeps it) versus earthquake (the party holding the White House gets thrown out).They looked at every presidential election since Abraham Lincoln’s victory in 1860, combining Keilis-Borok’s method recognising patterns associated with stability and earthquakes with Lichtman’s theory that elections are basically votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party that holds the White House.They came up with 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys went against the White House party, it would lose. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by AU’s website:1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.Lichtman and Keilis-Borok published a paper in an academic journal, which was spotted by an Associated Press science reporter, leading to a Washington Post article headlined: “Odd couple discovers keys to the White House.” Then, in the Washingtonian magazine in April 1982, Lichtman used the keys to accurately predict that, despite economic recession, low approval ratings and relative old age, Ronald Reagan would win re-election two years later.That led to an invitation to the White House from the presidential aide Lee Atwater, where Lichtman met numerous officials including then vice-president George HW Bush. Atwater asked him what would happen if Reagan did not run for re-election. Lichtman reckoned that a few important keys would be lost, including incumbent charisma.“Without the Gipper, forget it,” Lichtman says. “George Bush is about as charismatic as a New Jersey shopping centre on a Sunday morning. Atwater looks me in the eye, breathes a huge sigh of relief, and says, thank you, Professor Lichtman. And the rest is history.”For the next election, Bush was trailing his Democratic challenger Michael Dukakis by 18 percentage points in the opinion polls in May 1988, yet Lichtman correctly predicted a Bush victory because he was running on the Reagan inheritance of peace, prosperity, domestic tranquillity and breakthroughs with the Soviet Union.View image in fullscreenThat year Lichtman published a book, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency. But he was still derided by the punditry establishment. “When I first developed my system and made my predictions, the professional forecasters blasted me because I had committed the ultimate sin of prediction, the sin of subjectivity.“Some of my keys were not just cut and dried and I kept telling them, it’s not subjectivity, it’s judgment. We’re dealing with human systems and historians make judgments all the time, and they’re not random judgments. I define each key very carefully in my book and I have a record.”He adds: “It took 15 to 20 years and the professional forecasting community totally turned around. They realised their big mathematical models didn’t work and the best models combined judgment with more cut-and-dried indicators. And suddenly the keys were the hottest thing in forecasting.”Lichtman was a man in demand. He spoke at forecasting conferences, wrote for academic journals and even gave a talk to the CIA about how to apply the 13 keys to foreign elections. And his crystal ball kept working.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHe predicted that George HW Bush would be a one-term president, even though he was riding high in polls after the Gulf war, causing many leading Democrats to pass on mounting a challenge. Then a call from Little Rock, Arkansas. It was Kay Goss, special assistant to Governor Bill Clinton.“Are you really saying that George Bush can be beaten in 1992?” she asked. Lichtman confirmed that he was saying that. Clinton went on to win the Democratic primary election and beat Bush for the White House. “The Clintons have been big fans of the keys ever since,” Lichtman notes.The one apparent blot on Lichtman’s copybook is the 2000 election, where he predicted victory for the Democratic vice-president Al Gore over George W Bush, the Republican governor of Texas. Gore did win the national popular vote but lost the electoral college by a gossamer-thin margin. Lichtman, however, believes he was right.View image in fullscreen“It was a stolen election. Based on the actual votes, Al Gore should have won going away, except for the discarding of ballots cast by Black voters who were 95% for Gore. I proved this in my report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. One out of every nine to 10 ballots cast by a Black voter was thrown out, as opposed to one out of 50 cast by a white voter.“Most of those were not so-called hanging chads. They were over-votes because Black people were told punch in Gore and then write in Gore, just to be sure, and those ballots were all discarded. Political scientists have since looked at the election and proved I was right. Al Gore, based on the intent of the voters, should have won by tens of thousands of votes.”He adds: “I contend I was right about 2000 or at a minimum there was no right prediction. You could argue either way. I contend – and a lot of people agree with me – that I’m 10 out of 10. But even if you say I’m nine out of 10, that’s not bad.”Perhaps Lichtman’s most striking prophecy, defying polls, commentators and groupthink, was that Trump – a former reality TV star with no prior political or military experience – would pull off a wildly improbable win over the former secretary of state and first lady Hillary Clinton in 2016. How did he know?View image in fullscreen“The critical sixth key was the contest key: Bernie Sanders’s contest against Clinton. It was an open seat so you lost the incumbency key. The Democrats had done poorly in 2014 so you lost that key. There was no big domestic accomplishment following the Affordable Care Act in the previous term, and no big foreign policy splashy success following the killing of Bin Laden in the first term, so there were just enough keys. It was not an easy call.”After the election, Lichtman received a copy of the Washington Post interview in which he made the prediction. On it was written in a Sharpie pen: “Congrats, professor. Good call. Donald J Trump.” But in the same call, Lichtman had also prophesied – again accurately – that Trump would one day be impeached.He was right about 2020, too, as Trump struggled to handle the coronavirus pandemic. “The pandemic is what did him in. He congratulated me for predicting him but he didn’t understand the keys. The message of the keys is it’s governance not campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him.”In 2020 Lichtman gave a presentation to the American Political Science Association about the keys as one of three classic models of prediction. In recent months he has delivered keynote addresses at Asian and Brazilian financial conferences, the Oxford Union and JP Morgan. As another election looms, he is not impressed by polls that show Trump leading Biden, prompting a fatalistic mood to take hold in Washington DC and foreign capitals.“They’re mesmerised by the wrong things, which is the polls. First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value. They would have predicted President Michael Dukakis. They would have predicted President Jimmy Carter would have defeated Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide; Carter was way ahead in some of the early polls.“Not only are polls a snapshot but they are not predictors. They don’t predict anything and there’s no such thing as, ‘if the election were held today’. That’s a meaningless statement.”He is likely to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers in the Democratic primary, has the contest key too. “That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”View image in fullscreenLichtman gives no weight to running mate picks and has never changed his forecast in the wake of a so-called “October surprise” But no predictive model is entirely immune to a black swan event.Speaking in the week that saw a jury seated for Trump’s criminal trial in New York involving a hush-money payment to a pornographic film performer, Lichtman acknowledges: “Keys are based on history. They’re very robust because they go all the way back retrospectively to 1860 and prospectively to 1984, so they cover enormous changes in our economy, our society, our demography, our politics.“But it’s always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and who knows if he’s convicted – and there’s a good chance he will be – how that might scramble things.”Millions of people will be on edge on the night of 5 November. After 40 years of doing this, Lichtman will have one more reason to be anxious. “It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail.” And if he does? “I’m human,” he admits. “It doesn’t mean my system’s wrong. Nothing is perfect in the human world.”Biden v Trump: What’s in store for the US and the world?On Thursday 2 May, 3-4.15pm ET, join Tania Branigan, David Smith, Mehdi Hasan and Tara Setmayer for the inside track on the people, the ideas and the events that might shape the US election campaign. Book tickets here or at theguardian.live More

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      in US Politics

      Trump VP contender Kristi Noem writes of killing dog – and goat – in new book

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      In 1952, as a Republican candidate for vice-president, Richard Nixon famously stirred criticism by admitting receiving a dog, Checkers, as a political gift.In 2012, as the Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney was pilloried for tying a dog, Seamus, to the roof of the family car for a cross-country trip.But in 2024 Kristi Noem, a strong contender to be named running mate to Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has managed to go one further – by admitting killing a dog of her own.“Cricket was a wirehair pointer, about 14 months old,” the South Dakota governor writes in a new book, adding that the dog, a female, had an “aggressive personality” and needed to be trained to be used for hunting pheasant.What unfolds over the next few pages shows how that effort went very wrong indeed – and, remarkably, how Cricket was not the only domestic animal Noem chose to kill one day in hunting season.Noem’s book – No Going Back: The Truth on What’s Wrong with Politics and How We Move America Forward – will be published in the US next month. The Guardian obtained a copy.Like other aspirants to be Trump’s second vice-president who have ventured into print, Noem offers readers a mixture of autobiography, policy prescriptions and political invective aimed at Democrats and other enemies, all of it raw material for speeches on the campaign stump.She includes her story about the ill-fated Cricket, she says, to illustrate her willingness, in politics as well as in South Dakota life, to do anything “difficult, messy and ugly” if it simply needs to be done.By taking Cricket on a pheasant hunt with older dogs, Noem says, she hoped to calm the young dog down and begin to teach her how to behave. Unfortunately, Cricket ruined the hunt, going “out of her mind with excitement, chasing all those birds and having the time of her life”.Noem describes calling Cricket, then using an electronic collar to attempt to bring her under control. Nothing worked. Then, on the way home after the hunt, as Noem stopped to talk to a local family, Cricket escaped Noem’s truck and attacked the family’s chickens, “grabb[ing] one chicken at a time, crunching it to death with one bite, then dropping it to attack another”.Cricket the untrainable dog, Noem writes, behaved like “a trained assassin”.When Noem finally grabbed Cricket, she says, the dog “whipped around to bite me”. Then, as the chickens’ owner wept, Noem repeatedly apologised, wrote the shocked family a check “for the price they asked, and helped them dispose of the carcasses littering the scene of the crime”.Through it all, Noem says, Cricket was “the picture of pure joy”.“I hated that dog,” Noem writes, adding that Cricket had proved herself “untrainable”, “dangerous to anyone she came in contact with” and “less than worthless … as a hunting dog”.“At that moment,” Noem says, “I realised I had to put her down.”Noem, who also represented her state in Congress for eight years, got her gun, then led Cricket to a gravel pit.“It was not a pleasant job,” she writes, “but it had to be done. And after it was over, I realised another unpleasant job needed to be done.”Incredibly, Noem’s tale of slaughter is not finished.Her family, she writes, also owned a male goat that was “nasty and mean”, because it had not been castrated. Furthermore, the goat smelled “disgusting, musky, rancid” and “loved to chase” Noem’s children, knocking them down and ruining their clothes.Noem decided to kill the unnamed goat the same way she had just killed Cricket the dog. But though she “dragged him to a gravel pit”, the goat jumped as she shot and therefore survived the wound. Noem says she went back to her truck, retrieved another shell, then “hurried back to the gravel pit and put him down”.At that point, Noem writes, she realised a construction crew had watched her kill both animals. The startled workers swiftly got back to work, she writes, only for a school bus to arrive and drop off Noem’s children.“Kennedy looked around confused,” Noem writes of her daughter, who asked: “Hey, where’s Cricket?”In what may prove a contender for the greatest understatement of election year, Noem adds: “I guess if I were a better politician I wouldn’t tell the story here.” More