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Nikki Haley has one last card to play: will she eventually endorse Trump?
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 19:02
Nikki Haley’s withdrawal from the Republican presidential primary on Wednesday was “not a shocker”, a leading anti-Trump conservative said, in a contender for understatement of the political year.“As we’ve said for months,” Tara Setmayer added, “she has no path and [Donald] Trump will be the GOP nominee.”But Setmayer also pointed to the impact Haley did make in the Republican primary, what it means for Trump, and the choice now facing the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador as she seeks to retain political relevance.“Now let the over/under begin for when Haley endorses Trump,” Setmayer, a Republican operative turned member of the anti-Trump Lincoln project, said on social media.On Super Tuesday, Haley added Vermont to her weekend win in Washington DC but otherwise suffered a wipeout. Though Trump has not yet mathematically secured the nomination, Haley bowed to the inevitable the following morning.There was consolation for Haley. Across the slate of states which voted on Tuesday, she once again finished closer to Trump than expected, her vote shares above those predicted by polling.Tellingly, that illustrated sizable opposition to Trump among some Republicans and conservative independents.“Nikki Haley’s performance across the board is a warning signal for … Trump’s lieutenants,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist and ad maker turned Lincoln Project co-founder, wrote on Substack.“Trump’s senior strategist, Chris LaCivita, saw the results in key states late last night, read the exit poll data, scanned the turnout areas, and knew within hours that Trump’s party isn’t unified.“It’s smaller, darker, and more passionately devoted to the dear leader, but depending on the state, between 25% and 40% of Republican and conservative independents just aren’t into Donald Trump.”If most of those voters do not come back, Trump will face a near-impossible task in November against Joe Biden.The question for Trump and his aides, therefore, is how to get Haley onside and win back as many of her supporters as possible, as quickly as possible, while keeping them out of Biden’s camp.Whether Haley will endorse Trump, it follows, is now a central campaign question.In Charleston on Wednesday, announcing her withdrawal, Haley said that in campaigning against Trump for so long, with so little chance of success, she had “wanted Americans to have their voices heard”.“I have done that,” she said. “I have no regrets.”But having recently avoided re-committing to supporting the Republican nominee – which she previously pledged to do – she did not go on to endorse him.Having ruled out a third-party bid, an endorsement is Haley’s last card to play. Endorsements are often bartered for plum jobs (if not in this case vice-president, which Haley has said she does not want). Endorsements, and campaign-trail efforts on behalf of the nominee, can also be used to win support for candidacies yet to come, in Haley’s case after Trump finally leaves the stage.It is fair to say Haley has earned her position of relative influence in a party controlled by Trump. A rare Republican woman of colour in a primary dominated by white men, she vastly outperformed expectations.Though she started out with single-figure polling numbers, confident debate-stage displays saw her eclipse rivals including the former vice-president Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis, the hardline Florida governor who was initially expected to be Trump’s leading challenger, perhaps even his conqueror.Trump skipped every debate. Tellingly, though, he did not need to be onstage to dominate his opponents who were. Before the field began to shrink, all candidates other than Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, two doomed anti-Trumpers, fought shy of attacking him, aware of his grip on the base.When DeSantis quit, before the New Hampshire primary, Haley finally had a clear field to take the fight to Trump. She began to turn fire his way. But however strongly she spoke – calling the 77-year-old former president “unhinged” and diminished”, doubting he would adhere to the constitution – it was clearly too little, too late.Haley has disappointed Trump’s opponents too.She has said she will vote for Trump over Joe Biden. She also said that if she was elected, and if Trump was convicted on any of the 91 criminal charges he faces, she would give him a pardon.Though Haley has “earned the votes and support of millions of Republican and conservative independent voters in her brief time in the spotlight”, Wilson said, she will soon “break their hearts for nothing.“Reality has now set in for millions of Republican voters. They must choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. In all likelihood, Nikki Haley will make the wrong choice and back Trump.”That endorsement, Wilson said, “will prove it was all for nothing. The abyss is calling, and she’s peering down into the darkness.” More
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Who is running for president in 2024? Biden, Trump and the full list of candidates
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 17:46
The 2024 election season is under way, with Donald Trump the lone Republican candidate left seeking to unseat the sitting president, Joe Biden. After the pandemic changed the way Americans campaigned and voted four years ago, and three years after thousands of rioters waged violent protest at the nation’s Capitol to upend the last election’s results, the US will face new obstacles in carrying out the democratic process.Here is the list of candidates in the primary elections as of Super Tuesday.@font-face{font-family:”Guardian Headline Full”;src:url(https://assets.guim.co.uk/static/frontend/fonts/guardian-headline/noalts-not-hinted/GHGuardianHeadline-Light.woff2) format(“woff2”),url(https://assets.guim.co.uk/static/frontend/fonts/guardian-headline/noalts-not-hinted/GHGuardianHeadline-Light.woff) format(“woff”),url(https://assets.guim.co.uk/static/frontend/fonts/guardian-headline/noalts-not-hinted/GHGuardianHeadline-Light.ttf) format(“truetype”);font-weight:300;font-style:normal}@font-face{font-family:”Guardian Headline 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Republicans
Democrats
Third party
Dropped out
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Donald Trump
Former president of the United States
Former president Donald Trump is the top contender for the Republican party nomination, even as he faces several legal hurdles, including federal charges over obstructing justice and violating the Espionage Act. Trump, a longtime businessman, unsuccessfully ran for re-election as president in 2020, and refused to accept the outcome of the results. Trump most recently said he is pro-life, and would continue his hardline immigration stance in a second term if elected. He has also renewed attacks on trans people, especially athletes, and his anti-China agenda.
Trump won big in Iowa, with 51% of votes – full Republican results
In New Hampshire, Trump beat Haley by 10 points – full New Hampshire primary results
Trump wins Nevada caucuses in effective one-horse race – Nevada primary results in full
Trump beat Haley in her home state – full South Carolina primary results
Trump defeats Haley in Michigan – full Michigan primary results
Trump swept to victory in states across the US on Super Tuesday – full primary results
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Joe Biden
President of the United States
Joe Biden is the likely Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. He announced his campaign for re-election on 25 April 2023, exactly four years after he announced his previous, successful presidential campaign. While approval for Biden remains low, hovering just above 40%, political experts say he is the most likely candidate to defeat Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Biden has served in politics for over five decades and is running on a platform that includes abortion rights, gun reform and healthcare. At 81, he is the oldest president in US history.
Biden took 96.2% of the vote in a write-in campaign in New Hampshire – full primary results
Biden easily won first Democratic contest in South Carolina – full primary results
Biden won the Democratic vote – full Nevada primary results
Biden won but sheds support over Gaza – full Michigan primary results
Biden swept to victory in states across the US on Super Tuesday – full primary results
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Cenk Uygur
Political commentator and media host
Cenk Uygur announced the longest of long-shot campaigns in October. Now 53, the outspoken host of the progressive Young Turks TV show has no experience in elected office – though he did run for Congress in California in 2020 – but perhaps more importantly he was born in Istanbul, Turkey. Most legal scholars would say that makes him ineligible to be president, under article II, section I, clause 5 of the US constitution, which says only “natural born citizens” can hold the office. Uygur says otherwise, and promises to prove it in court. 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Biden challenger Dean Phillips drops out of US presidential race
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 17:19
The Minnesota congressman running against Joe Biden in the Democratic primary dropped out of the race on Wednesday, ending a long-shot bid to stop the US president from winning the nomination. He endorsed the president.Dean Phillips, who represents a wealthier suburban area outside Minneapolis, entered the Democratic race seemingly against his will and against the advice of most of his Democratic colleagues. The congressman, who first took office in 2019, first tried to recruit more prominent Democrats to challenge Biden, publicly saying Biden needed to let the next generation lead the party.The announcement comes after he lost his home state of Minnesota, where he gave up a seat he flipped from Republicans in order to enter the presidential race.“I ran for Congress in 2018 to resist Donald Trump, I was trapped in the Capitol in 2021 because of Donald Trump, and I ran for President in 2024 to resist Donald Trump again – because Americans were demanding an alternative, and democracy demands options. But it is clear that alternative is not me,” he said on Twitter/X.“And it is clear that Joe Biden is OUR candidate and OUR opportunity to demonstrate what type of country America is and intends to be.”In his first election test, Phillips nabbed about 20% of the vote in New Hampshire, losing to Biden, whose name was not actually on the ballot.His campaign in New Hampshire was not without controversy: a former political consultant affiliated with Phillips’s campaign claimed responsibility for a now-infamous robocall in New Hampshire that urged voters not to show up to the polls; Phillips has denounced the robocall.Since then, Phillips’s momentum has fallen off, but he has stayed in the race – despite having no listed events and little, if any, campaigning happening in the field in any state. Even in his home state of Minnesota, there was no semblance of a campaign – no stops at local diners, no field office, no ground work.In Michigan, he lost to both an “uncommitted” vote that sought to protest against Biden’s inaction on a ceasefire in Gaza and to Marianne Williamson, the self-help author who had previously suspended her campaign. Williamson, buoyed by the results, made the unusual move to “un-suspend” her campaign.In mid-February, Phillips announced he had to lay off “a lot” of his staff because he had found it so hard to fundraise with an incumbent in the race. Phillips, the heir to a liquor empire, had previously given his campaign several million dollars to get up and running.“We can do it,” he said in a video announcing the layoffs. “We can do better. I love you all and thank you for keeping the faith. And join me, the Dean team, we can do it.”Phillips managed to strike both a self-deprecating earnestness about his own campaign while continually sounding an alarm that Biden cannot win and someone should do something about it – but maybe not him.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“If you resent me for the audacity to challenge Joe Biden, at least you’ll appreciate how relatively strong I’m making him look among primary voters!” Phillips wrote on X, adding a biceps emoji.He shared an opinion piece endorsing him the headline of which said: Vote for whatshisname. He made a meme of a Dean shoe, a Technicolor joke poking at Trump’s new sneaker. He played the guitar.He floated the idea of a “unity ticket” with the Republican candidate Nikki Haley, who has stuck in the GOP race despite repeated losses to Trump. He is still trying to goad other Democrats into the race, specifically calling on Democratic governors such as Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker to run.And he has complimented Biden, in a strange way: when a New York Times poll showed Biden trailing Trump and losing support from people who previously voted for him, Phillips cast doubt on the poll.“When the NYT/Siena poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it is flawed,” he wrote on X. “Only 5% even know who I am.” More
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Far-right candidates see Super Tuesday wins at traditional Republicans’ expense
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 16:03
Far-right candidates took notable wins in state elections on Super Tuesday, further confirming the Republican ascendancy of supporters of Donald Trump, the probable GOP nominee for president, at the expense of more traditional conservatives.The highest-profile victory went to Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor of North Carolina who will now run for governor.The Democratic candidate, Josh Stein, would be the first Jewish governor of North Carolina should he win in November.In opposition to Stein, Robinson is a Hitler-quoting anti-abortion extremist, a dedicated controversialist who once said the superhero movie Black Panther was “created by an agnostic Jew and put to film by [a] satanic marxist … to pull the shekels out of your Schvartze pockets”.But the candidate may find recent remarks about his views on abortion harder to brush off, as Democrats seek to continue a string of wins in campaigns focused on rightwing attacks on reproductive rights.Robinson has supported total abortion bans, calling abortion “murder” and “genocide” and, as reported by CNN, calling the founders of the women’s health organisation Planned Parenthood satanists who practiced witchcraft.The spokesperson for Robinson also called Stein an extremist.Elsewhere in North Carolina, a 21-year-old college student affiliated with the extremist Turning Point USA youth group scored a notable victory when he defeated an 84-year-old state representative who has served for 20 years.Wyatt Gable beat George Cleveland in a close primary race. Earlier this year, the Jacksonville Daily News, a local paper, asked both men what experience they had to recommend themselves to voters.Cleveland said: “I have served as a budget writer since 2010 and have chaired various House committees over the past 14 years in veterans and homeland security, general government, marine resources, and aquaculture.”Gable said: “Currently in the university system and only a few years removed from the public education system, I have an up-close look at our education system …“I am also the Turning Point USA president at East Carolina. As president, I have stopped the school from changing the bathrooms to allow men in the women’s room and vice versa. I have also been able to sign up almost 1,000 new members.”Further west, in Texas, a Republican civil war between Trump-aligned hardliners and establishment figures saw hardliners gain the edge in elections on Tuesday.In a US House primary, Tony Gonzales, a Republican congressman from San Antonio, was headed for a runoff election against Brandon Herrera, a social media personality and gun salesman.Last year, Gonzales was censured by his own state party, for voting in favour of same-sex marriage and gun safety reform (the latter after the massacre of 19 young children and two adults at a school in Uvalde, Texas) and for being seen as soft on immigration and border policy.In the Texas state house, the speaker, Dade Phelan, will contest a runoff with David Covey, a challenger endorsed by Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, Dan Patrick, the lieutenant governor, and Trump himself.Phelan supported Paxton’s impeachment, a failed attempt to remove the attorney general over allegations of bribery, dereliction of duty and disregard for official duty.Paxton, who faces a securities fraud trial next month, also took aim on Tuesday at three judges on the highest criminal court in Texas. All Republicans, the three judges were part of a ruling that stopped Paxton fast-tracking cases of supposed voter fraud.All three judges were beaten by candidates Paxton endorsed. More
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The not-so-Super Tuesday is over. America has two clear choices ahead | Cas Mudde
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 13:18
Not-so-Super Tuesday has made an end to two faux primaries, confirming what everyone has known for month: the presidential elections will be a repetition of those four years ago. Despite thousands of columns and hundreds of millions of campaign money, Donald Trump was unapproachable in the Republican primaries, while Joe Biden faced no real opponent and won without ever really campaigning. So, where does that leave the US?In many ways, the upcoming elections will be the same as most of the US presidential elections this century. The race will be between two unpopular candidates, who are mostly mobilizing an “anti-vote” based on a broadly shared narrative that this could be the last election to “save America”. But the situation is even worse than four years ago, because both the electoral context and political climate have worsened.US presidential elections have always been fundamentally undemocratic, because of the electoral college, an elitist safety-valve the Founding Fathers put in between the popular vote and the actual election of the president. Moreover, the voting process is extremely decentralized, which has facilitated voter intimidation and suppression, particularly targeting African Americans – but also, increasingly, Hispanics and college students.Ironically, given that one-third of Americans who believe Biden’s election was illegitimate, the 2020 presidential elections were the most “free and fair” in US history. While offering extensive new opportunities for absentee/mail voting, partly a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, experts declared the elections “the most secure in history”. Still, Republicans have weaponized their unfounded “stolen election” claim to limit the possibility to vote, mostly by passing restrictive voter ID and absentee/mail voting laws at the state level, and retake control of the election process.Today, more than 80% of Americans are worried about democracy in the US and about political violence in the future. In fact, this is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans (as well as independents) agree upon! Of course, they sharply disagree what is at stake and who is the main threat. Ironically, both are mostly right, largely because they stand for fundamentally contradictory Americas.The Republican claim that Democrats want to “destroy America” is based on Christian nationalism, which considers the US to be a “Christian nation”, based on the foundations of biblical values and the “traditional” (implicitly white) family. And it is true that most Democrats want to destroy this America, which might have been the reality of the country’s history, but is in clear opposition to its own (revered) constitution.In sharp contrast, most Democrats worry that another Trump presidency would mean the end of US liberal democracy, that is, the system enshrined in the constitution. And they are right too. Decades of radicalization have made the Republican party one of the most extreme far-right parties in the world, catering to an illiberal popular and media base that is largely in line with its paranoid and unhinged leader.It is too early to say which America will win in November. For now, ignore the polls, at least until October, as the key factor will be turnout, which will be largely determined by circumstances very close to election day. Like all but one presidential elections in the 21st century, the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote. But in an undemocratic regime like the US, this is no guarantee to also win the election. Given how close the results will probably be in several key states, we are in for a protracted legal battle should Trump lose, in which the increasingly partisan supreme court might have the final say.To prevent such an outcome, and ensure that US democracy prevails, at least for another four years, Democrats face a lot of challenges in the coming six months. While the Republican base is fired up, many (potential) Democrats are either “uncommitted” or weakly committed to Biden. At the same time, some liberal media, the New York Times in particular, seem determined to make the same mistake as with the “Clinton emails” in 2016, obsessing over Biden’s age and health.Let’s be clear, the age and health of both Biden and Trump are problematic for such a demanding and powerful position, but this is the choice the parties and primaries have given the US voter. Suggestions that the Democrats can still replace Biden and win against Trump are completely delusional. Not only are the Democratic electorate and politicians much more diverse and divided than the Republicans, but there is also no clear candidate who can unite them better than Biden or who has a name recognition that comes even close to that of Biden and Trump. Moreover, this new candidate would have to build their campaign and name in the shadow of a Democratic president, who has already won a significant number of delegates in the primaries.So, whether we like it or not, American voters have a choice between two very clear and different Americas, represented by two old and unpopular candidates. If Biden wins, not too much will change – except for an even more brazen insurgence from Republican-led states against the federal government. But should Trump return to the White House, the US will change fundamentally, and not for the better. Whatever (legitimate) issues potential Democratic voters have with Biden, let’s hope that they can get over them by 5 November. The fate of both the US and the world depends on it.
Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today More
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Biden and the Democrats are sleepwalking into a potential Trump win | Osita Nwanevu
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 10:08
Barring an act from a God, who has seemingly forsaken the American electorate, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will, again, be the Republican and Democratic candidates for president. Tuesday’s results all but assure that, and they can’t really have been a surprise to anyone who has paid close attention to the campaign thus far.In fairness, most Americans still haven’t tuned in, nor many Democrats, who have spent much of the last year hoping against hope that one or more verdicts against Trump in the courts might hand them the election ⁠– and perhaps even put Trump behind bars before November. That was always a risky bet, but now the supreme court has put the trial over his attempted coup in 2020 on hold, while the other cases against him have uncertain timelines.Meanwhile, Biden’s team and Democratic officials have been telling the press that Biden’s replacement on the ticket isn’t any likelier. The race, they insist, is already on.Who’s ahead? All but a handful of high-quality national polls taken since January say it’s Trump. A New York Times poll fairly representative of the rest that drew a significant amount of media attention over the weekend put Trump ahead by five points, 48-43%, among registered voters. That’s the largest lead Trump has held in a Times poll since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2015.Meanwhile, Biden, more unpopular than ever, sits at an approval rating of 38%. Ten per cent of those who voted for him in 2020 now say they will vote for Trump. And the demographic picture the poll paints is dire ⁠– not only for Biden but perhaps for the Democratic party as a whole.Biden led strongly with women in 2020 and is now evidently tied with Trump among them; Biden won an estimated 72% of minorities without college degrees last time around and now leads by a mere six points, 47-41%. And while making broad demographic pronouncements on the basis of one poll is unwise, these results are roughly in keeping with some other data.In Michigan for instance, where much of the focus last week was on the uncommitted vote against Biden in that state’s primary, Biden has generally been polling under 70% with that state’s crucial Black electorate, which he won with over 90% of the vote, according to exit polls, in 2020. Deficits like that with previously strong Democratic constituencies go some way towards explaining why Biden, at present, seems to be losing in every swing state given current polling.The Biden campaign’s response to these numbers has been simple: all of the polls are wrong. “Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden,” Biden’s communications director, Michael Tyler, said over the weekend in a statement. “Whether it’s in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does and it tells a very clear story: Joe Biden and Democrats continue to outperform while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped and deeply divided.”As Tyler and his colleagues surely know, though, the point about “actual voter behavior” is wrong. Primary election results are not very indicative of how strong candidates will be in a general election; if they were, Trump, who didn’t even win a majority of the Republican primary vote in 2016, never would have been president. And there’s basically zero relationship between results in special elections like the one Democrats just won in New York ⁠– which involve small, unrepresentative electorates in small, unrepresentative places ⁠– and presidential election results.As flawed as they might be, general election polls are our surest guide to how the general electorate is feeling about the general election. In fact, as the political scientist David Faris noted recently, the leader at this point of the year in Real Clear Politics’ average of polls has gone on to win the election in every race since 2004 other than 2004 itself, with only a few points worth of difference between the margin and the final result.In 2004, the exception, Kerry and Bush were virtually tied in early March, around 44-44%, while Bush went on to win the popular vote by just over two points. And even that exception is reflective of a trend that can’t be of much comfort to Democrats ⁠– in every race since 2004 save 2008’s post-crash election, the Democratic candidate has performed slightly worse in November than polls at this point in the year have suggested.All told, we have every reason to believe that the hole Biden is in is real, as unfair as it might seem to his supporters. As rosily as they might evaluate his record in office so far, it looks substantially more mixed now than it did six months ago. It’s true that the economy is roaring by all available macroeconomic metrics and that Democrats under Biden have managed to pass the most expansive domestic policy agenda of any president since at least Lyndon Johnson.But it’s also true that voters have been stung by high prices and interest rates, as well as the expiration of pandemic relief programs. Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was brave and laudable ⁠– both morally and strategically overdue. But he was hammered for it in the press and now faces a progressive insurrection over the US’s support for Israel’s inhumane offensive in Gaza so severe that the campaign is reportedly reducing large in-person events to avoid protesters.And on immigration, still at the front of mind for many voters, Biden has functionally conceded that Trump has been right about the state of the border; while immigrants are less prone to crime than the native-born population and substantially responsible for the economic boom we’re experiencing, Democrats are trying their best to outflank the right on border security and asylum, to little effect thus far, rather than countering the racist myths Trump has propagated directly and focusing on a positive immigration reform agenda.Most voters haven’t plugged into these policy debates; Biden wears his greatest liability to them on his face. According to the New York Times’ poll, 73% of registered voters, including 61% of voters who backed Biden in 2020, say he’s too old to effectively serve as president.And as much as Democrats might want to blame the media for that perception in the wake of the Robert Hur report, this is a problem many of them foresaw themselves during the last campaign. “If Biden is elected he’s going to be 82 years old in four years and he won’t be running for reelection,” one campaign adviser told Politico’s Ryan Lizza flatly in 2019; according to Lizza, four sources close to Biden at the time told him that it was “virtually inconceivable” that he would mount another campaign.Yet here we are ⁠– sitting between a Super Tuesday that Biden swept and what could be the most consequential State of the Union address in some time, given the opportunity it presents for the president both to demonstrate his lucidity and to outline, at long last, an actual plan for his next term. Previews of the speech suggest it will feature now familiar language about protecting democracy and “making the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share”, along with some proposals on the opioid epidemic and veteran care.But Biden will have to do substantially better than that to get his campaign right side up. Plainly, he’s become a symbol of our political system’s decrepitude ⁠– a stand-in for all the old men in Washington who voters believe, rightfully, can’t or won’t do much to dramatically improve their lives. He’ll have to prove to voters that he’s capable of both dreaming and doing ⁠– to sell an ambitious vision of further material progress over the next four years, not woolly rhetoric about ending polarization and bringing serenity back to politics that will leave him looking dishonest and even more ineffectual when the tenor of political life remains the same, as it surely will.Whether or not Democrats control Congress will naturally constrain whether Biden makes good on that policy agenda; but having a compelling agenda in the offing to begin with might lift the candidates he’ll depend upon in his next term to victory. All that aside, faith in Biden’s capacity to lead and accomplish will rest in some part on whether and when the situation in Gaza comes to a peaceable resolution ⁠– getting a handle on the situation and pressuring Netanyahu into ending the war would be a significant turning point in his presidency.There and elsewhere, Biden needs to find a new course. Otherwise, the election may be over before he realizes it.
Osita Nwanevu is a Guardian US columnist More
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Trump’s Super Tuesday victory speech: grim visions of an American apocalypse
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 08:00
If this is what he sounds like when he wins, imagine how he would react to defeat.Donald Trump swept to victory after victory on Super Tuesday, all but clinching the Republican presidential nomination, but you wouldn’t have known it from his joyless victory speech.For hours his fans had partied in the gilded ballroom of his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, accompanied by Abba’s Dancing Queen, Elton John’s Rocket Man, Queen’s We Are the Champions and other golden oldies. Waiters glided between them serving pastries, prawns and sausage rolls. Each time Fox News – displayed on four giant TV screens – declared another state for Trump, they whooped and cheered and chanted “Trump! Trump! Trump! USA! USA! USA!”Then, after 10pm, into this gaudy pageant walked the Grim Reaper, raining on their parade with a 19-minute speech laden with doom and gloom about the state of the nation.This was Trump as Eeyore.No balloons, no confetti, no parade of family members on stage and no mention of opponent Nikki Haley. No fun.“Some people call it an experiment – I don’t call it an experiment,” Trump said of the United States. “I just say this is a magnificent place, a magnificent country, and it’s sad to see how far it’s come and gone … When you look at the depths where it’s gone, we can’t let that happen. We’re going to straighten it out. We’re going to close our borders. We’re going to drill baby drill.”As the unhappy warrior spoke, 10 guests headed for the exit, apparently worn down by the misery of it all.The strange thing about Trump’s subdued mood is that this should have been his “I told you so” speech, full of braggadocious crowing over the media and his vanquished foes. After all, when he used Mar-a-Lago in late 2022 to announce his third consecutive run for president, there had been widespread scepticism: Republicans had just flopped in the midterms and it was far from certain whether Trump could beat the coming man, Ron DeSantis.Who’s got the last laugh now? It should have been Trump on Tuesday night, revelling in the opulence of crystal chandeliers and gold leaf and Corinthian-style columns, after swatting aside a dozen challengers, leading Joe Biden in opinion polls and watching legal dominoes continue to fall his way.But it turns out he has upended and inverted yet another political convention: optimism. Not for him Ronald Reagan’s morning in America or Bill Clinton’s place called Hope or Barack Obama’s yes, we can. Instead only murder, mayhem and total darkness.If only he had still been running things, he lamented, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine, Israel would not have been attacked and Iran would be broke. Now inflation is “destroying the middle class, it’s destroying everything”. He added morosely that inflation is called the “country buster”.But wait, there is one bright spot: the stock market! It’s going gangbusters. According to Trump, this has nothing to do with Biden, “the worst president in the history of our country”, but the Republican frontrunner’s own healthy poll numbers indicating his return.Then it was back to the bad news of border security and immigration.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Our cities are being overrun with migrant crime, and that’s Biden migrant crime,” Trump grimaced. “But it’s a new category and it’s violent, where they’ll stand in the middle of the street and have fistfights with police officers. And if they did that in their countries from where they came, they’d be killed instantly. They wouldn’t do that. So the world is laughing at us. The world is taking advantage of us.”The room of bejewelled, permatanned partygoers was silent. At this point Trump was like the dinner guest who insists on talking about how sausages are made and what dying animals sound like. And he still wasn’t done, riffing on energy independence and how you turn tar into oil. Boring as well as sad.Maybe his handlers had got to him. Donald, don’t set everyone’s hair on fire. We have to pivot to the general! So it was he did not dwell on his big lie about the 2020 election being stolen from him. But he did grumble about the “weaponisation” of government against a political opponent.“It happens in third world countries,” he said. “And in some ways, we’re a third world country. We live in a third world country with no borders … We need a fair and free press. The press has not been fair nor has it been free … The press used to police our country. Now nobody has confidence in them.”The grim list kept coming: the deadly coronavirus pandemic, the loss of American soldiers in Afghanistan. And Trump naturally could not resist circling back for another bite at the border – no matter that he was the one who ordered Republicans to torpedo bipartisan legislation that might have begun to fix the crisis.“We have millions of people invading our country,” he asserted. “This is an invasion. This is the worst invasion probably.” For good measure, he tossed out an uncheckable fact. “The number today could be 15 million people. And they’re coming from rough places and dangerous places.”There were polite ripples of applause but not much chanting from a crowd that included men in leather Bikers for Trump vests; a young man sporting a Maga hat and dark suit, white shirt and red bow tie; a woman with an eye patch and Moms 4 Liberty T-shirt; a young boy in a suit with a Stars and Stripes tie; and a tattooed white rapper with a Mayor of Magaville cap and thick golden chain with a giant medallion resembling Trump’s head.Two days from now, the audience will be somewhat different for Biden’s State of the Union address in Washington. Trump delivered his own version on Tuesday night: the state of the union is bleak. Perhaps that was fitting for a nation digesting the reality that it really will have to do Biden v Trump all over again. More
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Haley wins surprise Vermont victory as Biden and Trump dominate Super Tuesday
by Evelyn Reynolds 6 March 2024, 05:15
Joe Biden and Donald Trump largely cruised to easy victories on Super Tuesday. In early results, Biden and Trump captured wins in their respective primaries in California, Virginia, North Carolina, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Colorado and Minnesota. Biden also won the Democratic caucus in Iowa and Vermont, but lost American Samoa, while Nikki Haley won the Republican primary in Vermont – her second victory of 2024.The United States has not witnessed a primary campaign season with so little competitive tension since political primaries began to dominate the nomination process in the 1970s. Neither the current president nor the former president secured the nomination of their respective parties, but both are likely to do so within the next two weeks.Both candidates took shots at each other in statements and speeches on Tuesday evening. Biden said Trump was focused on “revenge and retribution” and “determined to destroy democracy”.“Tonight’s results leave the American people with a clear choice: are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us backwards into the chaos, division, and darkness that defined his term in office?” Biden said.In a victory speech at Mar-a-Lago, Trump praised his wins, stating that “never been anything like this” and again attacked migrants, falsely claiming that US cities are “being overrun by migrant crime”. The former president has frequently derided migrants and made baseless and racist comments that they are dangerous.Biden sweeps, but with warning signsBiden requires 1,968 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. Going into Super Tuesday, he held 206. Primaries and caucuses today offered another 1,420. Assuming Biden continues to sweep through primary contests, the earliest he could secure the nomination on the first ballot would be 19 March with results from Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio.Democratic candidates can win delegates with 15% or more of the vote in a congressional district. California’s 424 Democratic delegates were the richest haul of the evening.View image in fullscreenVotes for write-in candidates typically take days to tabulate, but observers have been acutely watching for “uncommitted” or “none of the above” protest votes to register displeasure with the Biden administration’s policy on the Israel-Hamas war. The campaign has gained more ground after a strong showing in Michigan last week.William Galvin, secretary of state for Massachusetts, told reporters today that if enough voters selected “no preference”, a delegate may be assigned to that option.Trump marches on, but party rifts visibleTrump entered Super Tuesday with 273 delegates, requiring 1,215 needed to win the nomination outright at the Republican National Convention. Super Tuesday offered 865 delegates, but Nikki Haley’s continued campaign has prevented Trump from claiming all of them. With tonight’s results, the earliest Trump could secure the nomination is also 19 March with Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio.View image in fullscreenTrump gained a late-game reprieve in Colorado when the US supreme court unanimously ruled on Monday that states cannot unilaterally kick a presidential candidate off the ballot using the 14th amendment and was expected to win Colorado.Haley won the District of Columbia primary on Sunday, becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential primary in history. Only about 2,000 people voted in the primary but she did score her first state win on Tuesday with Vermont.Notable state races hold more upsetsCalifornia voters have been focused on the state’s highly-contested down ballot race to fill the seat held by Dianne Feinstein, the late US senator. California places the top two candidates from the primary in a runoff.Adam Schiff, the centrist Democratic congressman and longtime Trump antagonist, was declared the first place winner. He will face off with Republican Steve Garvey, a former professional baseball player, in November.But voters in California were unenthusiastic and analysts projected the state could see its lowest voter turnout in history.“I’m not excited about any of the issues, I just needed to take a walk today so I decided to drop off my ballot,” said Daniel, a 50-year-old voter who declined to share his last name.Texas held state and federal legislative primaries Tuesday, presenting Texan voters with a Republican grudge match over state politics. Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, has been on a revenge tour to punish legislators who voted for his impeachment on corruption allegations last year, issuing a long list of endorsed challengers to incumbents.About half of a slate of endorsed challengers have either claimed victory or are taking incumbents to a runoff, including a challenger to the powerful Texas speaker of the house, Dade Phelan. Late returns suggested Phelan will face Trump-backed challenger David Covey.Four claimed open seats and seven challengers won primaries outright, while seven others will go on to runoffs. One of those runoffs will feature Katrina Pearson, Trump’s former spokeswoman, who is neck-and-neck with Justin Holland, a state representative, in the suburban Dallas district.View image in fullscreenTed Cruz, the US senator, secured the Republican nomination with no major GOP competitors. Democratic representative Colin Allred beat out Roland Gutierrez, who has emerged as a national gun control advocate following the Uvalde shooting, to face Cruz in November.Alabama voters in a newly-redrawn second congressional district pushed Democrats Anthony Daniels and Shomari Figures to a runoff while Republicans Dick Brewbaker and Caroleene Dobson also face a runoff. The US supreme court forced Alabama to redraw its congressional map last year, declaring it a racial gerrymander that illegally diminished the political power of Black voters. As a result, two white Republican congressmen – Jerry Carl and Barry Moore – faced each other for a single seat after their districts were redrawn. Moore beat out incumbent Carl in the first district.More than 6,000 voters in the second district received postcards with incorrect voting information ahead of the primary, which a county official attributed to a software error.Notably Tom Parker, chief justice of Alabama’s supreme court, who issued a religiously-inflected ruling on the personhood of frozen embryos last month, was not on the ballot tonight. Alabama bars judges over the age of 70 from running for re-election; his term ends in 2025. The winner of the Republican nomination to succeed Parker is Sarah Stewart, an associate justice on the Alabama supreme court who was part of the court’s majority ruling on the embryo case.In North Carolina, the Republican state legislature redrew congressional maps last year after winning a majority on the state supreme court. As a result, the current delegation of 14 congresspeople will likely change from a 7-7 split to a 10-4 Republican majority and the most competitive seats have attracted sharp primary contests, particularly the 13th district.North Carolina’s first congressional district in the state’s coastal north-east has historically held a Democratic, mostly-Black majority. Lawmakers redrew it to be much more competitive for a Republican candidate. Representative Don Davis beat the 2022 Republican nominee, businesswoman and perennial candidate Sandy Smith, by four points. Smith this year lost the Republican primary to challenger Laurie Buckhout. .Meanwhile Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor, has won the Republican nomination for governor, to succeed North Carolina’s term-limited Democratic governor, Roy Cooper. Robinson, North Carolina’s first Black lieutenant governor, has a history of sexist and inflammatory comments, particularly about Jews.Robinson’s opponent in November will be Democrat Josh Stein, the North Carolina attorney general who would be the state’s first Jewish governor. More

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