More stories

  • in

    Liz Cheney hopes for Democratic win with US ‘sleepwalking into dictatorship’

    Liz Cheney, whose opposition to Donald Trump’s presidency alienated her from her fellow Republicans, has said she would prefer Democrats to win in the 2024 elections over members of her own party because she feared the US was “sleepwalking into dictatorship”.In an interview with CBS on Sunday, Cheney suggested a Republican congressional majority that would be subservient to another Trump White House presented a tangible “threat” to American democracy.“I believe very strongly in those principles and ideals that have defined the Republican party, but the Republican party of today has made a choice, and they haven’t chosen the constitution,” the former Wyoming congresswoman said when asked if she was rooting for Democratic victories in the 2024 election cycle. “And so I do think it presents a threat if the Republicans are in the majority in January 2025.”She went on to say that the US was “sort of sleepwalking into dictatorship” with Trump emerging as the clear favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, notwithstanding the fact that he faces more than 90 criminal charges, including some for attempting to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election against his Democratic rival Joe Biden.Polls also suggest it would be a competitive race if Biden is rematched with Trump, who has been running on promises to use federal authorities to crush his enemies and to dramatically expand the immigration crackdown that his White House oversaw after his 2016 victory.“The tools that he is using are tools that we’ve seen used by authoritarians, fascists, tyrants around the world,” said Cheney, the daughter of the ex-congressman, defense secretary and vice-president Dick Cheney. “The things that he has said and done, in some ways, are so outrageous that we have become numb to them.“What I believe is the cause of our time is that we not become numb, that we understand the warning signs, that we understand the danger, and that we ignore partisan politics to stop him.”Cheney served as the vice-chairwoman of the US House committee which investigated the deadly Capitol attack staged by Trump supporters on 6 January 2021 in a desperate but failed attempt to prevent the certification of Biden’s victory in the election weeks earlier.Cheney and her colleagues recommended that the justice department file criminal charges against Trump in connection with the Capitol attack, portending the four indictments obtained against the former president this year.In her remarks on Sunday, Cheney asserted that the Republican US House speaker, Mike Johnson, was “absolutely” a collaborator in Trump’s attempt to remain in office after his 2020 defeat.Johnson voiced conspiracy theories about Biden’s victory; authored a supreme court brief as Texas sought to have key state results invalidated; and was among more than 147 Republicans who unsuccessfully objected to certifying the outcome of the 2020 election even after the Trump mob’s attack on the Capitol had been foiled.“What Mike was doing was taking steps that he knew to be wrong, doing things that he knew to have no basis in fact or law or the constitution … in order to attempt to do Donald Trump’s bidding,” Cheney said, echoing comments she has made in interviews and in her new book Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning.Cheney said Johnson “can’t be” US House speaker when the new Congress takes its oath of office in early January 2025 and begins grappling with certifying the outcome of a presidential election the previous fall.“We’re facing a situation with respect to the 2024 election where it’s an existential crisis,” Cheney said. “We have to ensure that we don’t have a situation where an election that might be thrown into the House of Representatives is overseen by a Republican majority.”Cheney left office in January. She lost her bid to be re-elected to Wyoming’s sole House seat – which she had held since 2017 – after a Trump-supported challenger, Harriet Hageman, ran against her in a Republican primary.Hageman subsequently won a general election and succeeded Cheney in the House.Cheney’s thoughts do not seem to be her party’s mainstream position, if comments from the prominent US Republican senator Lindsey Graham are any indication.During an appearance on CNN, Graham – who has endorsed Trump – told Cheney that the former president “was far better” than Biden “in terms of actions and results”.“I think Liz’s hatred of Trump is real,” Graham said. More

  • in

    A second Trump term will be far more autocratic than the first. He’s telling us | Jan-Werner Müller

    The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Plenty of observers seem to think that’s all one needs to know as one beholds Donald Trump’s seemingly inevitable Republican nomination for president and possible second term. They assume that because it wasn’t fascism the first time, it cannot be fascism the second time; Trump is expected once more to be the bumbling, blustering buffoon, supervised by adults in the room.This relaxed view ignores that, with today’s pioneers of autocracy, things tend to only get really bad when they enter office the second time. The difference with Trump is not that he would leave democracy intact; the difference is that figures like the far-right Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, or Polish strongman Jarosław Kaczyński carefully hid their authoritarian plans. Trump, by contrast, is broadcasting everything in advance – and, if elected, will claim that he has a mandate to exact retribution and occupy the White House permanently.One of the great illusions of the 1990s was not, contrary to conventional wisdom, the belief that history had ended. Rather, it was the notion that democracies make mistakes but that their leaders are uniquely capable of correcting and learning from them. By contrast, the thinking went, autocrats cannot face up to problems; dictatorships are destined to end like the Soviet Union ended in 1991.Today, we should know better. Whether the likes of Orbán and Kaczyński always wanted to be autocrats is beside the point. The fact is that they, just like Trump, considered it deeply unfair that they had suffered election defeat (duly attributed to various enemies, from judges to hostile media outlets). When they came back to power, they had learned one thing for sure: not to waste political capital on culture wars, but to capture state institutions, ideally on day one, with the judiciary and the state bureaucracy as primary targets. For once you control the judges, you can go after the journalists, the teachers and the academics, and forever wage culture war to your heart’s content.Whether Trump personally has learned anything we can debate. But those around him evidently have. In 2025, they will not permit the “deep state” to frustrate the leader again; as a number of astute analysts have pointed out, there is a detailed scheme to replace perhaps up to 50,000 civil servants with political cronies, and bring the justice department under political control.It is typical for authoritarian populists to hijack the bureaucracy in broad daylight, advancing the argument that only they represent what populists call “the real people” (Trump’s very words to his supporters on January 6). After all, who is the state there for? The people, of course. Hence, when populists take over the state, they claim it’s really the people themselves rightfully taking possession of what is theirs. Recall Trump’s inaugural address, when he claimed that “we are transferring power from Washington and giving it back to you, the people”. The people never got it back, of course, because of the supposed “deep state”; this time must be different.The fact that the Heritage Foundation, a supposedly mainstream, sort-of-Reaganite conservative thinktank, has taken the lead in working out a plan to destroy the US administrative state is symptomatic of the fact that plenty of Republicans outside the immediate Maga cult have not only made their peace with an election denier and insurrection promoter but would appear to be onboard with threats Trump has spelled out in speech after speech: on Veterans Day, he promised to “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, lie, steal, and cheat on elections, and will do anything possible, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the American dream.”Other aspiring autocrats were probably also seething with resentment – but they carefully camouflaged their intentions as they prepared the path back to office. In 2010, Orbán could wait for power to fall into his lap, in light of the Hungarian center-left’s disastrous economic record and corruption scandals (which pale in comparison with what Orbán would end up doing in his kleptocratic system); he never announced that he sought to replace independent judges, destroy media pluralism and pass a new constitution.Trump is not hiding anything; nor does a figure like the Heritage president, who considers Hungary “not just a model for conservative statecraft, but the model”. Trump threatens that “either the deep state destroys America or we destroy the deep state”. Judges, journalists, anyone who didn’t do his bidding to steal the 2020 election, anyone in the Biden administration (communists!), anyone in foundations and universities declared by the Trump acolyte JD Vance to be “cancers on American society” – all should realize that he means it, and that self-styled center-right figures are not disavowing him.If Trump wins, he will claim that “the people” – for only his voters are the “real people” – democratically decided in favor of revenge and destruction.
    Jan-Werner Müller is a professor of politics at Princeton University. He is also a Guardian US columnist More

  • in

    Muslim leaders in swing states pledge to ‘abandon’ Biden over his refusal to call for ceasefire

    Muslim community leaders gathered on Saturday in Dearborn, Michigan, home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the US, to protest President Biden’s refusal to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, reiterating that the president’s stance could affect his support in crucial swing states next year.Jaylani Hussein, director of the Minnesota chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, said that Biden’s unwillingness to call for a ceasefire had damaged his relationship with the American-Muslim community beyond repair. (Cair-Minnesota is not involved in his work on the Abandon Biden effort, which the organization said Hussein is doing in his personal capacity.)“We are not powerless as American Muslims. We are powerful. We don’t only have the money, but we have the actual votes. And we will use that vote to save this nation from itself,” Hussein said. “Families and children are being wiped out with our tax dollars,” he added. “What we are witnessing today is the tragedy upon tragedy.”After Israel resumed its bombing offensive on the territory after a five-day pause, the health ministry said 15,200 Palestinians, roughly two-thirds of them women and minors, have been killed thus far. Israel’s air and ground strikes began after Hamas militants killed 1,200 Israelis and took around 240 hostage in a cross-border attack on 7 October.From behind a lectern that read “Abandon Biden, ceasefire now”, leaders from Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania issued similar warnings that the president could not afford to lose the support of the Arab-American community in states critical to his chances for re-election.A recent poll showed Biden’s support among Arab Americans has plunged from a comfortable majority in 2020 to 17%.Dearborn is home to the highest concentration of Arab Americans in a state that has the highest number, 211,405 , and the highest percentage of Arab Americans, at 2.1%. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 2.8% of the vote. Arab Americans account for 5% of the vote, according to the Arab American Institute.In Wisconsin, where there are 25,000 Muslim voters, Biden won by about 20,000 votes, Tarek Amin, a doctor representing the state’s Muslim community, said.In Arizona, where Biden won by around 10,500 votes, there are over 25,000 Muslim voters according to the US Immigration Policy Center at the University of California San Diego, said Phoenix pharmacist Hazim Nasaredden.About 3.45 million Americans identify as Muslim, or 1.1% of the country’s population, and the demographic tends to lean Democratic, according to Pew Research Center. Like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are also home to significant Arab-American populations and critical to Biden’s re-election mathematics.The #AbandonBiden campaign began in Minnesota in October and has since spread to at least five other states represented at the conference.“The anger in our community is beyond belief,” Hussein, who is Muslim, told the Associated Press. “One of the things that made us even more angry is the fact that most of us actually voted for President Biden. I even had one incident where a religious leader asked me: ‘How do I get my 2020 ballot so I can destroy it?’”While the Biden administration has resisted pressure to call for a permanent halt in fighting, and continues significant weapons transfers to Israel, senior officials are going further in expressing their discomfort with the high level of civilian casualties.The Wall Street Journal reported that the US has provided Israel with 100 BLU-109, 2,000-pound bunker busters included in a transfer package of around 15,000 bombs and 57,000 artillery shells since 7 October.On Saturday, US vice-president Kamala Harris said that while the US supports Israel’s “legitimate military objectives” in Gaza, the suffering of the civilian population inside the enclave has been too high.“Too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Frankly, the scale of civilian suffering, and the images and videos coming from Gaza are devastating,” Harris said at a press conference in Dubai. “It is truly heartbreaking.”At a meeting with the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, Harris also said that Washington will not allow for the forced relocation of Palestinians or any redrawing of the current border of the Gaza Strip.“Under no circumstances will the United States permit the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank, the besiegement of Gaza, or the redrawing of the borders of Gaza,” Harris said, according to a read-out of the meeting.Against a backdrop of pro-Palestinian protest in the US, Muslim leaders gathered in Dearborn said Biden or likely Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump were not their only choices next year, and they could choose to sit out the election.“We don’t have two options. We have many options. And we’re going to exercise that,” Cair’s Hussein said. More

  • in

    ‘Moderate’ or Roe v Wade killer: can Trump have it both ways on abortion?

    A few months ago, the former president Donald Trump accused the Republican party of speaking “very inarticulately” on abortion. And yet, for the GOP presidential frontrunner, inarticulateness seems to be a feature, not a bug, of his own approach to abortion.Trump thinks he can run in 2024 as a “moderate” on abortion, Rolling Stone reported this week – even though he’s currently running ads in Iowa, a crucial state in the Republican primary, proclaiming himself “the most pro-life president ever”. It’s a title to which Trump has a legitimate claim: his three nominees to the supreme court not only handed the nation’s highest court a definitive conservative majority, but all three voted to overturn Roe v Wade in summer 2022.That move handed the anti-abortion movement the victory of a lifetime, but Republicans have been paying for it ever since. They underperformed in both the 2022 midterms and the 2023 Virginia state elections, losses that have been widely credited to the party’s inability to figure out a path forward on abortion. Abortion rights advocates, meanwhile, won every abortion-related ballot measure of the last 18 months, even in red states. After Ohio, seemingly a conservative stronghold, voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution earlier this month, abortion rights activists rushed to remind Democrats that “abortion is a winning issue” in 2024.While Republicans have flailed over how to message on an apparently toxic issue, Trump has – in typical Trump fashion – flip-flopped on it with apparent ease. Shortly after the 2022 midterms, Trump blamed “the abortion issue” for Republicans’ poor performance. He has refused to say whether he supports a federal ban and called the decision by Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, to sign a six-week abortion ban a “terrible thing”.But all the while, Trump continues to take credit for overturning Roe.“I was able to kill Roe v Wade,” he bragged on social media in May.Howard Schweber, a professor of American politics and political theory at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that “Trump has what, in my experience of observing politics, seems like a nearly unique ability to maintain cognitive dissonance in ways that his supporters find untroubling.“His supporters will say, ‘Oh, well, he really means that when he says’ – and then finish that sentence with whichever position they approve of. That’s the gamble that he’s taking,” he said.Trump has not said what, if any, specific abortion policy he would support as president. DeSantis has said that he would support a 15-week national abortion ban, a position championed by the powerful anti-abortion group SBA Pro-Life America. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, has said that she would sign an abortion ban as president, but doubts that Republicans could muster the votes in Congress.Iowa has a reputation for conservative evangelicalism, but most Iowans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. By not letting himself get nailed down on a specific abortion policy, Trump might be approaching Iowa as though the presidential primary is already over, said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. (Which it very well be: Trump is polling far higher than any of his competitors, who have largely cratered.) In a general election, where voters are more likely to be less dogmatic, it can pay to be vague – particularly on a charged issue like abortion.“Things that you might say a little more forcefully during the nomination process during the primaries, you back off a little bit when it comes time to time for the general election,” Hagle said. “And that’s been a strategy of candidates for decades.”Republicans in Iowa have launched an effort to amend the state constitution and clarify that it does not protect abortion rights. In order for the amendment to show up on the ballot, the Republican-controlled state legislature would have to pass it before handing the measure to voters. That could backfire, increasing turnout among abortion rights supporters who oppose Trump.“But then we’re also talking about turnout in the presidential year, which is high anyway,” Hagle said. “So if you lose turnout in a midterm year, that’s going to make more of a difference than in a presidential year.”Most Americans oppose the overturning of Roe. But that doesn’t mean voters are all that motivated by it: numerous polls since Roe’s overturning have found that Democrats are highly energized by abortion, while Republicans are less so – a reversal of the status quo while Roe was the law of the land.As long as Trump wins the primary, he’s in little danger of losing the conservative evangelicals who oppose abortion rights. While they may want him to be more forceful on the issue, it’s improbable that they would turn to a Democrat in response to Trump’s reticence.“Sometimes the option is to not vote at all, but I can’t imagine that they would want to do that either,” Hagle said. “It does create a little heartburn on the part of the pro-life folks that supported him if all the sudden he’s taking a more moderating position, but he may see that that’s more appropriate given his electoral strategy.”Even people who say that they would like to keep abortion “mostly legal” are not always that invested in doing so. A recent poll from the New York Times – which did not look at Iowa – found that, among voters who want abortion to be “mostly legal”, Biden led by only one point. Those voters are also twice as likely to say they plan to vote based on economic issues, rather than social issues like abortion.Schweber, though, is convinced that there are would-be Trump voters who will defect solely based on their support of abortion.“Women voters – particularly middle-class and upper-class, suburban women voters – do take abortion rights seriously,” he said. In 2016, Schweber said Republican women told him, “It doesn’t matter, they’re never going to overrule Roe.”“That sense of security is obviously gone,” he added. More

  • in

    Exodus of election officials in one county rings alarm for US democracy

    It was the perfect story and Donald Trump pounced.In the final weeks of the 2020 election, officials in Luzerne county in north-east Pennsylvania had discovered nine mail-in ballots in the trash. Several of them were cast in favor of Trump, who had been railing for months that the election was rigged against him. William Barr, then the attorney general, briefed Trump on the matter before it was public and Trump immediately began spinning it.“They were Trump ballots – eight ballots in an office yesterday in – but in a certain state and they were – they had Trump written on it, and they were thrown in a garbage can. This is what’s going to happen,” Trump said at the time. In an unusual move, the justice department quickly announced it was investigating the matter. Months later, it would announce the incident was caused by human error.Several months later there was a new election director in place. But there was also a new problem. When Republicans went to the voting machine in the primaries, a header popped up on their ballot telling them they were voting an “official Democratic ballot”.When the midterm elections came around in 2022, there was another new election director . Again, there was a problem. Just after the polls opened, many precincts quickly reported they did not have enough paper to feed the voting machines, prompting delays and forcing some voters to be turned away.All three incidents were caused by unintentional human error, exacerbated by a high level of turnover in the election office of a politically competitive county in a battleground state. (Trump won the county by 14 points in 2020, a five-point drop from his 2016 margin.) Between 2016 and 2019, the median experience for staffers in the office was between 17 and 22 years, according to an analysis by the news outlet Votebeat, which has reported extensively on the election office’s turnover. In 2022, the median level of experience was just 1.5 years.“It’s a good example of an office that hasn’t been invested in and it shows,” said Jennifer Morrell, the CEO and co-founder of The Elections Group, an election administration consultancy that worked with Luzerne county to improve processes in 2021. “I think there are a lot of other offices like that maybe haven’t had the public problems, but it’s probably because they’re kind of holding things together by a thread. Or more likely by duct tape.”While the turnover in Luzerne county has been exceptionally high, it is emblematic of a larger crisis facing American elections. Experienced election officials, long underresourced and underpaid, are leaving the profession as they face a wave of threats and harassment, seeded by Trump and allies who have spread the myth that US election results can’t be trusted. About 20% of local election officials are projected to be working their first presidential election in 2024, according to an April survey by the Brennan Center for Justice. Nearly 70 election directors or assistant directors in 40 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties have left since 2020, according to Al Schmidt, the secretary of state.With this exodus comes a massive loss of institutional knowledge. The people who know exactly how to proof a ballot, test election machines, or troubleshoot problems on election day won’t be there. The result is a toxic cycle, where a lack of experience produces human error, fueling distrust in elections and anger, then pushing election officials to leave.“Any wrinkle in an election process is immediately the subject of conspiracy theories,” said Robert Morgan, who served as Luzerne county’s election director for most of 2021 and was in the role when the ballot header issue occurred. “If you experience that level of turnover, there is a concern that you may not be as experienced, and you may not have handled this, or handled something this large, and yes, that doesn’t help. That doesn’t build confidence.”As the county heads into another election year, it’s under the magnifying glass. Officials know that any error can lead to more distrust and skepticism of elections. The county is now seeking to improve its internal election processes to regain trust of its residents.“There’s certain things that we can’t control. But what we need to do is make sure that we prepare for everything that we can control,” Romilda Crocamo, the county manager, said. “We still hear from people who don’t trust the election. And you’re not going to get people’s trust overnight. We’re going to have to have a series of clean elections.”As the justice department investigation found, for example, the ballots Trump seized on in 2020 weren’t discarded because of a nefarious plot to steal the election, but rather because a temporary worker who had been on the job for a few days made a mistake. The worker appeared not to realize they were military ballots, which can arrive in different envelopes than regular mail-in votes and discarded them. The discarded ballots were quickly discovered by Shelby Watchilla, the county’s director of elections. Federal prosecutors and the FBI would later say there was no evidence of criminal intent.Still, the damage was done. After the ballots were disclosed, Walter Griffith, a county councilman, had organized a protest outside the county office and criticized Watchilla as incompetent. She resigned in December, shortly after she filed a defamation lawsuit against Griffith.Public meetings of the election board became more heated in the aftermath of the 2020 election. “There were no filters for some people. They would immediately assume everybody was incompetent in the process and that sort of stuff because of what had happened in 2020,” said Morgan, who took over in 2021. “And you know it’s tough to operate in an environment like that.”Recent election directors in Luzerne county have also been paid $64,500 per year, according to Votebeat, among the lowest salaries in similarly sized counties across the country. “You’re making $65,000 and you’re going to work and people are publicly abusing you? And you’re receiving threats. That’s not an incentive to get out of bed and get to the office,” Crocamo said.And as distrust built after the discarded ballots in 2020, another error from the election office only further escalated mistrust.When Morgan started his job as the election director in 2021, the elections office was already in the process of proofing the ballot for the upcoming primary. There wasn’t a manual or protocol to follow.“It was basically an oral history tradition. It was a little frustrating. Because sometimes the stories weren’t told in the order they might have been otherwise,” he said. “I knew a lot of things, but I didn’t know anywhere near all the things that needed to go into it. It’s a huge logistical process.”When election day for the primary came around, Morgan made a mistake. When a representative of Dominion programmed the county’s election machines, Morgan didn’t catch that the representative had programmed the first page of all ballots to say it was a Democratic ballot. Polls opened at 7am and by 7.15am the office was swamped with phone calls. “That was not fun,” Morgan said.“We should have caught it. But we didn’t. You never proofread your own work and a lot of times when you proofread you’re looking for the highlights,” he added. “The problem is in a heightened situation where people don’t feel you’re credible and you make a simple error like that and it just lights the fire for everything everyone thought they were getting cheated by last time.”Morgan resigned that fall to take another job, a decision that he said was unrelated to any harassment he faced.By November of last year, Beth Gilbert McBride, a city councilperson in Wilkes-Barre, was running the elections office. She started as a deputy in July 2022 and took over three months before election day when the elections director stepped down, according to Votebeat. Weeks before election day, the deputy director texted McBride that the county was low on paper but probably would be OK for the election. McBride said she would order more paper.That order never materialized and shortly after polls opened, several precincts reported they were running low on paper. County officials initially delivered extra paper from a warehouse to precincts with a shortage, but then had to take it back when a Dominion representative expressed concern it might not work with the machine. The county ultimately had to make a same-day order for the correct paper.There were immediate accusations that the paper issue was an attempt to suppress the vote in Republican areas of the county. Republicans on the elections board refused to certify the election, causing the county to miss the state’s certification deadline (it ultimately certified after a lawsuit). The accusations went national – the US House administration committee held a hearing in March of this year focused on the paper shortage that was titled: “Government Voter Suppression in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania.” Representative Bryan Steil, a Republican from Wisconsin, said that one-third of precincts had been turned away.But an extensive investigation by the district attorney’s office found that wasn’t true: 16 of the county’s 143 polling locations had a paper shortage, and just four election judges reported a stoppage in voting.“The evidence shows that the failure to provide paper to the polling places was not a deliberate act, but rather a catastrophic oversight,” the district attorney’s report said, noting it was overlooked “amid the flurry of activities involved in the newly hired parties managing the election”.The review offered a thorough, public audit of what went wrong in 2022 and how to fix it. That kind of transparency will be required to rebuild trust, said Morrell, the elections consultant. “You address the mistake, you don’t brush it under the rug. You be transparent about why it happened and then ‘What can we do to ensure it doesn’t happen again?’” she said.Crocamo, the county manager, said there was little doubt the issues the county has faced have had to do with turnover.“We had individuals who worked in the bureau who were very good, very competent, but who were being abused. They were being verbally abused by board members. Some government representatives. People in the public coming to meetings. Some of them were receiving threats,” she said. “If there were individuals who worked in the bureau and had institutional memory and they were gone, that was gone as well. All that was gone.”This year, she’s determined not to have the same issues happen again. The county brought in a lawyer with expertise in elections to officially record its election procedures. Crocamo published a calendar of what needs to be done each week and expects an explanation if a deadline isn’t met. And the county is doing extensive outreach for poll workers at high schools and senior centers.The new election director, Eryn Harvey, 28, has experience in the office – she left in 2022 to run for elected office, but returned.During an interview in mid-November, Crocamo was especially optimistic. Luzerne county had just pulled off largely successful municipal elections – a hugely complicated endeavor because of the wide variations in local races that can appear on a ballot.“I mean, I’m not gonna convince everybody. That’s impossible. There are people out there who want us to fail. But I think we can convince most of the people, most of the voting public, that they can have trust in our elections in Luzerne county,” she said.She took a long pause. “Absolutely believe it.” More

  • in

    His debate with Gavin Newsom showed Ron DeSantis will never be president | Lloyd Green

    On Thursday night, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, reminded the US why he will never be president. His voice grates, his visage a cross between a squinted grimace and scowl. He looks like Manuel Noriega, the ex-Panamanian dictator, without the scarring. On a personal level, he lacks humor, warmth, wit or uplift. He is ham-handed, an awkward social warrior.DeSantis comes across as too hot. This is the guy who picked a fight with Mickey Mouse, his state’s largest employer. He holds degrees from Yale and Harvard, but repeatedly flashes clouded judgment. In other words, there are plenty of reasons why he is getting walloped among Republicans by Donald Trump.“You’re down 41 points in your own home state,” California’s Gavin Newsom happily reminded DeSantis during their televised debate, which Fox moderated.And if you can’t win your own state, you are going nowhere. Recall: Senator Elizabeth Warren lost to Joe Biden in 2020’s Massachusetts primary and never regained her former stature.The dust-up was organized and moderated by Fox’s Sean Hannity, with Fox advertising the gubernatorial cage match – between the governors of two of the US’s largest states – as “DeSantis vs Newsom: The Great Red v Blue State Debate”.Over 90-plus minutes, DeSantis attacked Newsom – whose Republican ex-wife Kimberly Guilfoyle is engaged to Don Jr – without lasting impact. He ran through a litany of California’s woes but couldn’t make them stick. Then again, he carries a ton of baggage, from crime and abortion to January 6 and needless Covid-related deaths. A recent court settlement over Florida’s improper withholding of Covid records highlights the fact that DeSantis’s boasts were empty.Florida is plagued by high murder and gun mortality – as Trump, DeSantis’s bitter rival, is fond of reminding Republican primary voters. DeSantis has dangled the prospect of pardoning January 6 defendants but claims to love the police.By the numbers, Florida’s homicide rate tops California’s (and New York’s, for that matter). Beyond that, Christian Ziegler, the chair of the Florida Republican party, is under investigation for rape and sexual assault. Law and order; traditional family values; whatever.On the debate stage, DeSantis failed to land the blows he needed to rejuvenate his formerly promising campaign. His one-on-one confrontation did nothing to dent Nikki Haley’s rise or bring him any closer to Trump. Air continues to exit DeSantis’s low-flying balloon.He recently received the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, an evangelical leader in Iowa, but that gain has yet to move the dial. On the other hand, Haley just this week scored the endorsement of the Kochs’ political network, which translates into money and campaign foot-soldiers, as DeSantis knows from personal experience.“DeSantis wins formal Koch backing as momentum continues to shift,” a Politico headline from 2018 blared. Those days are so gone.“When are you going to drop out and give Nikki Haley a shot to win?” Newsom zinged. Great question, one that DeSantis failed to answer in front of the Trump fan boy Sean Hannity. DeSantis – a Rupert Murdoch personal favorite – fell flat on Murdoch’s own network. Meanwhile, the Fox board member and ex-House speaker Paul Ryan was touting Haley to whomever would listen.Much like Mike Pence, the former vice-president and former presidential wannabe, DeSantis is bogged down in abortion and Dobbs, the gift the right wing prayed for but is now living to regret. For Pence, it was a matter of conviction; for DeSantis it looks like a case of expedience that quickly headed south.In July last year, Florida enacted a 15-week cut-off for abortion. For DeSantis that wasn’t enough. He doubled down on the issue and lost. To burnish his rightwing credentials, he then pressed the Florida legislature to adopt a six-week abortion ban and it backfired. Tremendously.He got what he demanded and is now living with its consequences. A majority of Floridians are pro-choice, by a 56-39 margin. Florida isn’t Mississippi, to DeSantis’s chagrin.“You want to roll back hard-earned national rights on voting rights and civil rights, human rights and women’s rights, not just access to abortion, but also access to contraception,” Newsom fired. The US is still waiting for DeSantis’s retort.Here, Trump smells blood. He has privately derided anti-abortion leaders as lacking “leverage” to force his hand while tweaking them for having nowhere else to go once the supreme court struck down Roe v Wade. He has also reportedly mocked as “disloyal” and “out of touch” those evangelicals who cast their lot with DeSantis.Simply put, Vander Plaats won’t be receiving a Christmas card from the Trumps later this month. In that same vein, the evangelical rank and file has parted ways with its leadership. These days, Nascar and Florida’s Daytona are their spiritual homes; church pews on Sunday, not so much.In a sense, DeSantis is stuck in the past, rerunning yesteryear’s campaigns. Right now, Trump demonstrates traction with younger voters and is making inroads with minority communities. By contrast, DeSantis is picking losing fights.Gasping for attention, he unfurled a “poop map” of San Francisco to highlight the magnitude of the city’s homeless problem. The stunt backfired. Right now, it’s DeSantis’s campaign that seems to be the raging dung heap. The words “Florida man” usually precede a punchline or something gruesome.
    Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992 More

  • in

    Mad Poll Disease is making Democrats misread voter opinion | Michael Podhorzer

    Now that Thanksgiving has passed in America, and everyone’s Trumpy uncle is on his way back to his conservative state, we still have our catastrophizing Democratic cousins to contend with. Triggered by the drumbeat of horrific poll results, they are panicking that Joe Biden is too old and unpopular to prevent a second Trump administration from taking power.These cousins, and perhaps you too, are suffering from the latest strain of what I call Mad Poll Disease. It’s a perpetual state of anxiety – spread by the media’s obsession with using polls to forecast the outcome of the next election, instead of empowering voters with all the information they need to decide what they want that outcome to be and act, or vote, accordingly.To cure Mad Poll Disease, start by making this your mantra: Horserace polling can’t tell us anything we don’t already know before election day about who will win the electoral college. We know it will be close. We know it will be decided by six swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Importantly, these states were so close that even the best polls couldn’t call all of them the day before the 2016, 2020 or 2022 elections.In both 2016 and 2020, the margin of victory in most of them was less than one point. If you had clicked on FiveThirtyEight in June 2022, you would have thought Republicans had a 60% chance of controlling the Senate, in September that Democrats had a 70% chance of holding the Senate, and on election day, that Republican had a 60% chance of flipping it again. But in the real world, Democrats increased their Senate majority.Trying to use horserace polls to project the winner in swing states is like trying to predict the weather nine months from now by taking the temperature outside today. Elections come down to turnout, and what that will look like on election day is truly anyone’s guess. Taking the temperature of how voters feel today doesn’t tell us how they’ll feel a year from now – much less whether they will act on those feelings by turning out to vote, or for whom they’ll vote if they do.So why the scary numbers?Pollsters want voters to tell them who they will vote for next November; voters want to tell pollsters how unsatisfied they are now with the direction of the country and their own lives. For most of this century, Americans have said the country was on the wrong track – and they have taken out those broader frustrations on whoever was president at the time. Low presidential approval ratings are now the norm in the United States (for old and young presidents alike), in a stark contrast to the last century.And other world leaders aren’t faring well either. Of the seven countries regularly surveyed by Morning Consult, only the Swiss have positive feelings about their leader and their country’s direction.But when it comes time to cast a ballot, voters understand the stakes. This is where we can really tell those cousins to take heart: ever since Trump’s shocking win in 2016, many Americans who thought elections didn’t matter realized that they very much do. Most Americans reject everything Trump and Maga stand for – taking away our freedoms, filling the government with incompetent lackeys, and ruling with hate and fear. An anti-Maga majority was born, and it has turned out to vote in record numbers again and again. This has been a predictable weather pattern since 2018, but most pollsters and pundits fail to account for it.Remember how 2022 was supposed to be a Red Wave, but it never materialized? Actually, it did – in 35 states. But in the other 15 states, where a prominent Maga candidate was running, we saw numbers more like the 2018 Blue Wave. Where voters understood the anti-Maga stakes, they turned out. This allowed Democrats to keep the Senate. When Democrats lost the House, it was by a much narrower margin than pundits expected. And it could have gone the other way had anti-Maga voters in California, New Jersey and New York understood what similar voters in the states with key Senate races understood – that staying home was voting for Maga to control the chamber.As a practical matter, only Biden can decide not to run, and he shouldn’t base that decision on fear of bad polls. Polls can mislead us into making unforced errors. We hear a lot about how risky it is to run an 81-year-old candidate with bad poll numbers. What about how risky it would be to replace someone who has beaten Trump before, and who has already been defined by both left and right, with someone who hasn’t? It would be an absurd gamble – like doubling down on your bet when you haven’t seen any of your own cards yet.It’s even more absurd to focus on this when we still have a year of news headlines in front of us. As we saw after Roe v Wade was overturned, there is a huge difference between knowing intellectually that something could happen, and actually living in the world where it is happening. It’s not news to most people that Trump will stand trial for multiple criminal indictments next year. But none of us can fully feel the way we will about it once we are reminded every day of Trump’s crimes against the country.To be clear, I’m not saying that Biden is going to win – just that there’s no reason to declare him likely to lose. But media outlets create this narrative out of thin air when they choose to field and devote so many headlines to horserace polls a year out from the election. This saps our agency as voters by creating a false sense of inevitability about the final outcome. And it steals oxygen from coverage of why an election matters – the real stakes to voters’ lives.We know what those stakes are because we have lived through some of them. We know how much worse Trump and Maga are promising to do. Our duty, not as Democratic partisans but as small-d democratic partisans, is to put in the work to make sure every voter understands the choice ahead.
    Michael Podhorzer, the former longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, the chair of the Analyst Institute, the Research Collaborative and the Defend Democracy Project, and writes the Substack Weekend Reading More

  • in

    As Gavin Newsom’s political star rises, some Californians are wary of his ‘new persona’

    Gavin Newsom won’t be on the ballot in 2024, though lately, he’s been acting a lot like he is.In the lead-up to his prime-time debate on Thursday with Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Newsom, 56, has been busy campaigning over the last few months. He has travelled to several red states, where he also paid for billboards and television advertisements. He has challenged not just DeSantis, but a number of Republican governors including Greg Abbott of Texas. He launched a “Campaign for Democracy’’ political action committee. He met with Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and Xi Jinping in China.But as his political star rises, his constituents are growing increasingly sceptical. The governor, who sailed through an election after thwarting a recall effort, has recently seen his approval rating sink to an all-time low. His vetoes of bills that would have expanded labour protections and rights alienated powerful unions. And his rejection of laws to outlaw caste discrimination, decriminalise psychedelics and consider gender affirmation in child custody cases has confused advocates who thought they could count on his support.A poll by UC Berkeley’s institute of governmental studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 49% of registered voters in California disapproved of their governor. And 43% opposed him “taking on a more prominent role in national politics” via TV appearances and travel.“He’s taking on a new persona,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley-IGS poll. “He’s now broadening his overall political profile, and not all Californians are on board with that. They’d rather stick to the job that he was elected to do.”Newsom challenged DeSantis to a debate more than a year ago – while he was on the verge of re-election, and speculation about his presidential aspirations was already spinning full-force. DeSantis accepted in August, as polls continued to show him trailing Donald Trump by double digits in the Republican primaries.The debate is unusual and is the culmination of longstanding rivalry between DeSantis, a fervently rightwing culture warrior with a flagging bid for the presidency, and Newsom – who says he is certainly, definitely not running for president.Newsom is a surrogate for Joe Biden in the 2024 election. But his appearance on Thursday will further fuel speculation about his presidential ambitions. And with reason.The governors have been long engaged in a rivalry fueled by their diametrically opposed visions for the country, and evenly matched political ambitions. Newsom has slammed DeSantis over Florida’s school book bans, crackdowns on immigrants and the restriction of abortion rights and trans rights. After Florida flew asylum seekers to Sacramento, seemingly in order to make a statement about Democratic immigration policies, Newsom called him “small, pathetic man” and appeared to threaten kidnapping charges.Sean Hannity, who will be moderating the debate, said he sees the governors’ televised face-off as one between “two heavyweights in the political arena”. In an interview with Politico, he said they will “talk about substantive, real issues and governing philosophies that affect everyone’s lives”.But the two politicians will also have other pressures and agendas. As DeSantis’s team pushes to revive his prospects amid lagging poll numbers ahead of the Iowa caucus in January, this will be an opportunity for him to show voters how he would fare against a Democrat – one who could run for president in 2028, or even sooner should polls or concerns about age push Biden out of running.Newsom’s team, meanwhile, has indicated that this is a chance for him to elevate Biden and Democrats. Indeed, if and when Newsom does consider the presidency, he will also have to face off against Kamala Harris – Newsom’s peer in California politics – as well as other young Democrats with rising profiles, such as the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer.But to political observers, it is clear that the governor is auditioning for the possibility. “There’s no other reason for him to be debating Ron DeSantis,” said Gar Culbert, a professor of political science at Cal State Los Angeles. “He appears to be testing the waters and putting his name out there. He wants to be a person of national prominence.”A career politician who rose from the San Francisco parking and traffic commission to the governor’s office, Newsom has thus far faced few truly competitive political challenges. In order to win a national office, he will for the first time have to court a national base, including the moderate and swing voters that represent his best chance at the White House.And perhaps to that end, allies, critics and many a political consultant have speculated that the liberal, San Francisco governor has increasingly attempted to counterbalance California progressivism with nationally appealing moderation. Last year, Newsom backtracked on his support for supervised injection sites to prevent overdose deaths – leading political observers and advocates to speculate that he did so to avoid the ire of Republicans and moderates. This year, he sided with conservatives over unions in the case of key worker protections, and echoed Republican opponents in his veto of a measure outlawing caste discrimination, calling it “unnecessary”.Citing budget constraints, he also thwarted attempts to allow workers to receive unemployment benefits, spurning powerful union and labour allies who helped him win the governor’s seat in 2018.“Gavin Newsom doesn’t benefit from pleasing the voters in the state of California,” said Culbert. “Because that is not the constituency that gets him his next job.”The governor also had to engage in some complex political maneuvering when faced with the obligation to fill a Senate seat left open after the death of the former US Senator Dianne Feinstein. Newsom had promised to appoint a Black woman, and many progressives had counted on him choosing representative Barbara Lee, who was already running for the seat. Instead, Newsom chose the Democratic strategist and former labour leader, Laphonza Butler, avoiding siding with Lee over her main Democratic rivals Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. The move drew criticism from Lee’s supporters, but avoided alienating former speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats who had backed Schiff or Porter.“Newsom is in the prime of his political career,” said Sonja Diaz, director of UCLA’s Latino Policy and Politics Institute. “Governor of California likely isn’t the end of his story.” And right now, as a surrogate for Joe Biden, while he retains a national and international audience as governor of the most populous US state with the largest economy, is his time to build his resume and national profile, she said.But Diaz said that in the meantime, he had an important role to play in national politics – as a fundraiser for Biden and other Democrats and as a foil to prominent Republican governors like DeSantis and Abbott, who have seized a national platform to galvanise “California has an outsized role in the political zeitgeist of this country,” she said. “And Newsom is utilising that perch to articulate his vision for America.” More