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      The Democrats think centrism will re-elect Biden. That’s a dangerous assumption | David Sirota

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      The Democratic party’s political class has developed a rote formula over the last decade: ignore rather than channel discontent among the party’s rank-and-file voters, prevent competitive primaries where those voters can act on their dissatisfaction, and then hope to eke out general election victories on a wave of voter disgust with the Republican party’s outlandish nominees.This isn’t just a fleeting tactic. This is now The Formula of Democratic Politics™, one with mixed results. In 2016, the Senate Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer, publicly bragged that the Formula would result in flipping enough moderate voters to secure a victory – just before the Formula’s epic failure handed Donald Trump the presidency.Four years later, though, the Formula seemed to work – Democrats united to quash the primary against the quasi-incumbent Joe Biden, and Trump’s horrific first term allowed Biden to eke out a win with a flaccid campaign based on a meaningless platitude about “the soul of America”.Now Democrats seem intent on using the Formula again – only this time, it’s even more risky because this is not a race against a sitting Republican president. In 2024, Biden is the incumbent playing defense, and data suggest that there’s not much enthusiasm for his re-election campaign, even among his own party.A stat from the Washington Post illustrates this larger problem: “Biden has less support for renomination among Democrats than Trump, Obama and Clinton had from their parties,” the newspaper reports, noting that surveys show just 38% of Democrats want Biden to be the party’s nominee in 2024. CNN’s polling shows that right now, just one-third of Americans believe Biden deserves to be re-elected – lower than where Trump was at around this stage of his first term.If there was a healthy, genuinely democratic culture among the Democratic party’s political class, the response to the prospect of depressed voter enthusiasm might be a serious primary challenge. There might be a traditional top-tier candidate – maybe a senator, a governor, or even a member of the House – who is both ambitious enough to run for president and worried enough about a Biden failure in a general election against Trump.Such a primary would serve the additional benefit of testing Biden’s own re-election viability, and making sure he can handle the rigors of a campaign before he’s already the nominee.But that hasn’t happened. The response has been the Formula.First, Biden and Democratic leaders have rejected the FDR strategy of winning elections by making a show of delivering for the working class. They have instead made a show of putting their boots in the eye of dissatisfied voters as a way to brandish their “centrist” (read: corporate) credentials.After a very good American Rescue Plan momentarily helped millions of people and boosted Biden’s standing among voters, Democrats cut off pandemic aid, jacked up taxes on the working class, stomped out a rail strike, expanded fossil fuel drilling amid the climate emergency, demagogued the crime issue, and reappointed Trump’s worker-crushing Federal Reserve chair – all while abandoning the minimum wage and healthcare promises they made in 2020. And then they spiked the football by bailing out Silicon Valley Bank tech moguls while the government moved to force up to 15 million people off Medicaid.With voters now understandably ticked off, here comes the Formula’s primary-crushing phase.There was the decision to move the first Democratic presidential primary to South Carolina – a state widely seen as a place where the party machine has the best chance to control the outcome against insurgent candidates.More recently, there’s the effort to shut down the discourse: though a Fox News survey shows 28% of Democrats already saying they will vote against Biden in a primary contest, the Washington Post reports: “The national Democratic party has said it will support Biden’s re-election, and it has no plans to sponsor primary debates.”So far, this phase of the Formula has been successful. Though Marianne Williamson and Robert F Kennedy Jr, are promising primary challenges, no elected official in the party seems willing to vigorously support even the concept of a primary, much less run in one.No doubt every Democratic officeholder is deterred by the cautionary tale of Senator Bernie Sanders, who was shamed for the crime of momentarily considering a primary challenge to Barack Obama while the incumbent was bailing out banks amid the foreclosure meltdown. For his part, Sanders provided an early Biden re-election endorsement, not even holding out for any policy concessions.So far, this part of the Formula has been successful in manufacturing a sense of inevitability and creating the illusion that there is no other path – even if voters might want one. As the Washington Post’s headline put it: “Democrats reluctant about Biden 2024, but they see no other choice”. Or as Sanders told MSNBC about his Biden endorsement: “I don’t think one has many alternatives here.”Assuming Biden is the nominee, the Formula’s final phase will probably be anchored in Schumer’s 2016 assumption. Democrats will presume that come general election time, disgust with the Republican nominee will cure all the discontent, demoralization and disillusionment sown by a feeble left-punching incumbent and by the party’s heavy-handed primary suppression tactics.Maybe that’s what ends up happening. Maybe voters will see the Republican nominee as so flagrantly grotesque that Biden will get four more years. But there’s mounting evidence that the opposite could happen, and that 2024 could be more like 2016 than 2020.That’s hardly surprising. As gross as Republican politicians are, Democrats’ formula may not be sustainable over the long haul. There may be only so long that a party can ignore and suppress mass discontent and then just hope the other party’s extremism generates revulsion.As FDR once warned: “The millions who are in want will not stand by silently forever while the things to satisfy their needs are within easy reach.”
      David Sirota is a Guardian US columnist and an award-winning investigative journalist. He is an editor-at-large at Jacobin, and the founder of The Lever. He served as Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign speechwriter More

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      The pro-Trump pastors embracing ‘overt white Christian nationalism’

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      A far-right religious group with ties to Donald Trump loyalists Roger Stone and retired Army Lt Gen Michael Flynn, is planning events with pastors in swing state churches in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere to spur more evangelical backing for the former US president’s 2024 campaign.But the group, Pastors for Trump, is drawing sharp rebukes from mainstream Christian leaders for being extremist, distorting Christian teachings and endangering American democracy, by fueling the spread of Christian nationalism.The Tulsa, Oklahoma-based evangelical pastor and businessman Jackson Lahmeyer leads the fledgling Pastors for Trump organization. Lahmeyer told the Guardian it boasts over 7,000 pastors as members and that he will unveil details about its plans on 11 May at the Trump National Doral in Miami, an event Trump will be invited to attend.Stone, a self styled “dirty trickster” who Trump pardoned after he was convicted of lying to Congress, is slated to join Lahmeyer in speaking on 11 May according to the pastor. Lahmeyer added he will talk more about his pro Trump group at a ReAwaken America evangelical gathering on 12 and 13 May at the Doral.Lahmeyer said the pastors group intends to sponsor a “freedom tour” with evening church meetings in key swing states this summer, an effort that could help Trump win more backing from this key Republican voting bloc which could prove crucial to his winning the GOP nomination again.Lahmeyer described the genesis of Pastors for Trump in dark and apocalyptic rhetoric that has echoes of Trump’s own bombast. “We’re going down a very evil path in this country,” he said. “Our economy is being destroyed. It’s China, the deep state and globalists.“China interfered in our 2020 elections,” he added. “This is biblical what’s happening. This is a spiritual battle.’But those ominous beliefs have drawn sharp criticism.“This kind of overt embrace of white Christian nationalism continues to pose a growing threat to the witness of the church and the health of our democracy,” said Adam Russell Taylor, the president of the Christian social justice group Sojourners.“This pastor and this effort are trying to impose a Christian theocracy. It’s imperative that Christian leaders of all backgrounds including conservative ones speak out about this effort as a threat to our democracy and to the church.”Other religious leaders warn of dangers that Pastors for Trump poses by marrying Christian nationalism with political vitriol and election lies.“For years, Trump has tried to co-opt religious leaders to serve his campaign, even attempting to change long-standing tax law to allow dark money to flow through houses of worship,” said Amanda Tyler, executive director of the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty.“Tragically, far too many pastors have confused political power with religious authority and have thrown their lot in with Trump, no matter the cost to their ministry. Pastors for Trump is the next step in this unholy alliance, mixing Christian nationalism, election lies and vitriolic language in a gross distortion of Christianity.”There’s ample evidence that Lahmeyer has embraced religious and political views replete with extremist positions.Lahmeyer has previously attacked former House speaker Nancy Pelosi as a “demon”, and former Covid 19 adviser Anthony Fauci “a mass murdering Luciferian”. To Lahmeyer, the attack on the Capitol on January 6 by a mob of pro Trump supporters was an “FBI Inside Job”.Besides his apocalyptic rhetoric, Lahmeyer’s effort has echoes of the two-year-old ReAwaken America tour that has combined election denialism with Christian Nationalism and regularly featured Flynn at its two day revival style meetings.In 2021, Flynn provided strong and early backing for Lahmeyer in an abortive primary campaign by the pastor to gain the Republican nomination for a Senate seat from Oklahoma.Flynn, who worked to overturn Trump’s loss to Joe Biden by pushing bogus claims of election fraud and who Trump pardoned after he pleaded guilty twice to lying to the FBI about contacts he had with Russians before briefly serving as Trump’s national security adviser, is a real hero in Lahmeyer’s eyes.“Flynn is a leader and general,” Lahmeyer told the Guardian. “I trust him and I have come to love him. He’s been like a father to me.”Those bonds were reinforced in early 2021 when Lahmeyer introduced Flynn to Clay Clark, an Oklahoma entrepreneur and a member of his church, who teamed up with Flynn to host some twenty ReAwaken revival-like gatherings over the last two years nationwide, all of which Lahmeyer said he’s attended.Late last year, Lahmeyer unveiled Pastors for Trump on Stone’s eponymous Stone Zone podcast, a relationship that was forged in 2021 when Stone served as a key paid consultant to Lahmeyer’s primary campaign.Pastors for Trump is “interwoven” with the Trump campaign, “but we’re a separate grassroots group”, Lahmeyer said, indicating it is a 501(c)(4) non profit social welfare, which is awaiting IRS tax status approval.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTo date, the pastors group has created a two person board that includes South Carolina pastor Mark Burns, a key Trump campaign religious adviser who backed Trump’s 2016 run and who told the Guardian that he’s a “spiritual adviser” to Trump.Lahmeyer said his group hopes to arrange an event in Las Vegas in August to coincide with a ReAwaken America gathering that’s scheduled there, and that he expects to start fundraising to increase his group’s membership and activism.Asked if Stone and Flynn may participate in the various swing state church gatherings, Lahmeyer said: “I’d be dumb not to ask them. Stone and General Flynn are huge supporters.”To push the group’s pro-Trump messages, Lahmeyer has arranged a few prayer calls in recent months that have included Stone, Flynn and ex-Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, all of whom promoted bogus claims of election fraud in 2020 and tried to help Trump overturn his loss to Joe Biden.One call that included a segment with Trump in late March which Lahmeyer hosted and that Stone and Flynn participated in, went badly awry when the sound quality was interrupted for several minutes with Trump on the line.Lahmeyer told the Stone Zone the next day that trolls had infiltrated the “backstage” of the platform they were using, while Trump fingered the “radical left” for hacking his phone when he tried to join the call.The launch of Pastors for Trump came not long after an uptick in public criticism of Trump from some evangelical leaders that suggested waning support among evangelicals.Dr Everett Piper, the ex president of a Christian university, in November wrote an op-ed entitled “It’s time for the GOP to say it: Donald Trump is hurting us, not helping us.” Piper wrote that in the 2022 midterms Trump “hindered rather than helped the much-anticipated ‘red wave’”.Likewise, the Iowa based president and CEO of the Family Leader Bob Vander Plaats, has tweeted about Trump that “It’s time to turn the page. America must move on. Walk off the stage with class.”Little wonder that in January, Trump blasted evangelical leaders who publicly criticized his new campaign for their “disloyalty”.Some scholars and recent polls, however, suggest Trump still has very significant support in the evangelical circles, and that he should garner hefty support again from evangelical voters in the primaries if he’s the nominee.“Trump’s enduring appeal to evangelicals is the greatest single triumph of identity politics in modern American history,” David Hollinger, an emeritus history professor at Berkeley and the author of Christianity’s American Fate, told the Guardian. “The evangelicals who flocked to Trump have good reason to stay with him.”Still, Tyler of the Baptist Joint Committee is alarmed at the Pastors for Trump campaign.“Most clergy avoid endorsing political candidates, even in their personal capacity, because they know the polarizing impact it would have on their congregations and the distractions it would cause from their calling and the mission of the church.”Similarly, Taylor of Sojourners says Pastors for Trump is particularly worrisome. “This is further evidence that the threat of muscular white Christian nationalism is real and needs to be counteracted.” More

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      ‘We need to read the room’: GOP divided on abortion as Democrats unite for 2024

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      Hours after Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign on Tuesday, his vice-president and 2024 running mate, Kamala Harris, delivered a fiery call to action for voters alarmed by the loss of constitutional protections for abortion.“This is a moment for us to stand and fight,” she said to a packed auditorium at Howard University, a historically Black college in Washington and her alma mater. To the “extremist so-called leaders” rolling back access to reproductive rights, Harris warned: “Don’t get in our way because if you do, we’re going to stand up, we’re going to organize and we’re going to speak up.”Across the Potomac, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley appealed for a “national consensus” on abortion in a carefully worded speech delivered earlier that day from the Arlington headquarters of a leading anti-abortion group. Sidestepping the thorny policy debates already animating the Republican primary contest, she said her focus was on “humanizing, not demonizing” the conversation around abortion.“I believe in compassion, not anger,” she said. “I don’t judge someone who is pro-choice any more than I want them to judge me for being pro-life.”Nearly a year after the supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, the battle over abortion rights is shaping the opening stages of the 2024 presidential contest.In dueling speeches this week, Harris and Haley previewed sharply contrasting approaches to an issue that is energizing Democrats and dividing Republicans. It’s a sign of just how dramatically abortion politics have shifted in the post-Roe era.Republicans, who for decades championed the anti-abortion agenda of the religious right, are now wavering on their positions, no longer sure of how to navigate an abiding principle of American conservatism in their quest to win control of the White House and Congress.Meanwhile, Democrats running for office at every level of government – from the presidential ticket on down – are placing abortion rights at the heart of their campaigns, presenting themselves as bulwarks against Republican extremism on the issue. It was a strategy the party used to surprising success in the 2022 midterm elections last year, when voters in red states, blue states and swing states resisted attempts to advance abortion restrictions.And it worked again earlier this month, when a liberal judge won a pivotal Wisconsin supreme court race after clearly telegraphing her support for abortion rights. Her victory likely guarantees the court’s new liberal majority will strike down the state’s 1849 abortion ban.“This is a defining issue for millions and millions of Americans,” said Cecile Richards, a former CEO of Planned Parenthood who is now a co-chair of Democratic Super Pac American Bridge 21st Century. Abortion rights, she predicted, would be “even more important” in 2024 than they were last year, as Americans grapple with the consequences of abortion bans and restricted access.“I think the harm to American people, to women, to families is going to continue to be on display and that you can lay directly at the feet of the Republican party,” Richards said.Democrats are almost universally aligned in their support for abortion rights, and largely unified in their messaging: Republicans, they warn, will not stop until abortion is outlawed in all 50 states.“Their ultimate goal is clear: a total ban on abortion nationwide,” the Democratic senator ​Dick Durbin​ of Illinois​ said this week, in remarks opening a committee hearing titled “The Assault on Reproductive Rights in a Post-Dobbs America”.The high court’s June decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health, he said, “paved the way for activist judges and Republican lawmakers to try to impose their anti-choice agenda on everyone else, even in states that have protected the right to abortion”.During the session, Democratic senators assailed a ruling earlier this month by a conservative judge in Texas to suspend the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the abortion pill mifepristone. Republicans, meanwhile, were largely muted in their response to the decision.If allowed to stand, the Texas order would have far-reaching implications for access to one of the most common methods of terminating a pregnancy in the US, including in places where abortion remains legal. For now, the supreme court ordered the pill to remain widely available while the appeals process plays out.Republicans are divided over how to counter the attacks. Some Republicans have argued that abortion is a matter best left to the states, a position recently endorsed by Donald Trump. Susan B Anthony Pro-Life America (SBA), one of the most powerful anti-abortion groups, fired back with a warning to the party’s 2024 hopefuls: any candidate who does not endorse a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy will not receive their support.The rift between Trump and the movement leaders who once anointed him the “most pro-life” president in history for his role delivering the conservative supreme court majority that struck down Roe underscores the challenge for Republican candidates as they seek to appeal to their party’s socially conservative base in the primary without alienating independents and swing voters in a general election.Haley sought to strike that balance In her speech from SBA’s headquarters this week. Emphasizing her “pro-life” record both as the governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the UN, she said there was a role for the federal government to play in regulating abortion, but largely avoided specific policy prescriptions.In a statement after the speech, SBA said Haley had made “clear” to the group that she was committed to “acting on the American consensus against late-term abortion by protecting unborn children by at least 15 weeks”. (A spokesman for the Haley campaign said she wanted to build “consensus to ban late-term abortion” but did not say whether she supported such a proposal. SBA did not respond to an email seeking clarity.)Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina waffled on his position in the days after launching a presidential exploratory committee, declining to say if he would support a national 15-week ban. He later backed a 20-week ban before saying in an interview that he would sign “the most conservative pro-life legislation you could bring to my desk”.Anti-abortion advocates applauded Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, seen as Trump’s most formidable challenger for the nomination, after he signed into law legislation banning abortions after six weeks, before many women realize they are pregnant. But the decision to do so has alarmed some Republicans, including a top party donor who cited abortion as one of the reason he was pausing plans to fund DeSantis’s yet-to-be announced presidential bid.Perhaps no potential Republican contender has taken a harder line on abortion than the former vice-president Mike Pence, a staunch social conservative. He has embraced a national ban and recently welcomed the Texas decision on medication abortion, calling it a “victory for life”.Disagreement among the party’s notional field of Republican presidential contenders all but guarantees a robust policy debate on the issue, forcing them to articulate a federal plan that details how early in a pregnancy to restrict abortion and when to allow exceptions.Americans almost universally agree that women should be able to terminate their pregnancy in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother, according to a new NBC poll. And a survey by the Pew Research Center recently found that Americans, by a margin of two to one, believe medication abortion should be legal.“As Republicans, we need to read the room on this issue because the vast majority of folks are not in the extremes,” the Republican congresswoman Nancy Mace of South Carolina said in an appearance on ABC News’s This Week. Mace, who like most of her party describes herself as “pro-life”, is part of an increasingly vocal group of Republicans urging her party to avoid politically perilous positions that risk alienating the broader American public that supports legal abortion.“We’re going to lose huge if we continue down this path of extremities,” she said.Leaders of the anti-abortion movement say Republicans’ silence on the issue, not their policy positions, is to blame for the string of recent electoral setbacks. They point to DeSantis, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine as examples of Republicans who sailed to re-election last year, after signing into law new restrictions on abortion. All are from right-leaning but still-contested states.Republican “strategists are advising Republican candidates to talk as little as possible about abortion. Meanwhile, Biden plastered ABORTION all over his new campaign video,” Kristan Hawkins, the president of the anti-abortion group Students for Life of America, wrote on Twitter. “They are talking about it, so we 100% should be too.”Speaking recently at the Reagan Library, Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, urged the party faithful not to impose “rigid, ideological purity tests” while pushing her candidates to lean into the debate over abortion rights.“We can win on abortion but that means putting Democrats on the defense and forcing them to own their own extreme positions,” she said, citing polling that showed support for a 15-week federal ban.But corralling her party behind a unified policy is no easy task. After a half-century of pushing to eliminate federal abortion protections, conservatives feel emboldened to push ever more restrictive laws in places where they hold power.This week, North Dakota became the latest state to dramatically limit abortion, banning the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for rape or incest. And a new law in Idaho would criminalize those who help a minor obtain an abortion in another state without a parent’s permission.Meanwhile, in South Carolina and Nebraska, the state’s conservative-majority legislatures failed to pass new bills banning abortion, another sign of just how complicated the issue has become for Republicans.Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster who has studied public attitudes on abortion, said voters are highly attuned to the fast-changing legal and political landscape. And repeatedly since Roe’s demise, she noted, they have made clear their opposition to further restrictions.“What voters want is for Republican politicians to stay out of their personal lives,” Murphy said. Until then, she said abortion rights would continue to be a powerful motivator for Democrats.“The energy has not waned,” she said. More

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      Veep hunting season has opened. But Kamala Harris is in with a shot | Simon Tisdall

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      Being vice-president of the United States is not much fun, or so it often seems from the outside. All the trappings of power are present: high-profile events, free foreign travel, big limos, secret service protection and a turreted mansion in the grounds of Washington’s Naval Observatory.But the job itself is a cemetery from which few escape with their political lives. Indeed, attending funerals is in the job description. The incumbent is forever overshadowed by the president of the day, blamed for his blunders, given thankless tasks to perform.To think of the post as a stepping stone is misleading. George HW Bush, Ronald Reagan’s deputy, moved directly into the top job in 1989. Few others have pulled it off. Joe Biden, Barack Obama’s loyal No 2 for eight long years, was passed over in favour of Hillary Clinton.Of course, there’s always a chance the ‘phone will ring – and everything changes in a proverbial heartbeat. That happened to Lyndon Johnson, after JFK’s assassination, and, in less tragic circumstances, to Gerald Ford. Yet mostly, ex-vice-presidents slip unlamented into obscurity, diminished and finished. Gaffe-prone Dan Quayle, 1989-93, the “deer caught in headlights”, was terminally mauled. Snarling Dick Cheney, 2001-9, departed widely loathed. Donald Trump thundered that his reluctant fall guy Mike Pence, 2017-21, deserved lynching.Veep hunting: it’s a favourite Washington bloodsport. Foreshadowing Prince Harry’s “Spare”, Benjamin Franklin suggested re-titling the incumbent “Your Superfluous Excellency”. One Veep spluttered the job was “not worth a bucket of warm piss”.It’s like having your head in the stocks. Expectations are set impossibly high, then the victim is pilloried and pelted with mud pies for failing to match them.Veep hunting recommenced in earnest last week after Biden confirmed he will seek a second term with Kamala Harris again at his side. As vice-president, Harris has been patronised by friends, ridiculed by pundits and traduced by enemies.Evidently, some of this pain goes with the job. And perhaps her sometimes less-than-stellar performance partly warrants it. Yet even by past standards, Harris has had an unusually rough ride. Why? The fact she is the first woman vice-president, has Black and Asian American roots, and is a liberal from California provides a clue. As divided America’s crucial 2024 election looms, her reselection effectively pins a target on her back for Trump – the most likely GOP candidate – plus Maga extremists, rabid Republicans, preachifying evangelicals, lying TV hosts and assorted wackos, racists and bigots to aim at. This is a figure of speech – hopefully.Yet security is certainly a worry given the Capitol Hill insurrection and out-of-control gun crime. Last week, Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis, another female Black Democrat – who is expected to charge Trump with election tampering – requested extra FBI protection.Harris will face intense scrutiny for one reason entirely beyond her control: Biden’s age. The president is already the oldest ever; he will be 86 by January, 2029. Pretending this is not an issue is foolish. Recent polls suggest most voters, including most Democrats, believe he should step down.Biden’s refusal means, actuarially speaking, that Harris, 58, stands an inexorably increasing chance of becoming president as his notional second term proceeds. Given that her disapproval rating is 53%, Democrats worry this possibility could alienate uncommitted independents, representing around half of all voters.“Because … the chance of [Biden’s] health failing is not small, people will be asked to vote as much for his vice-president as for him, maybe more than in any other election in American history,” veteran commentator Tom Friedman predicted last week. Whether or not her problems stemmed from inflated expectations, from being out of her depth, or from “a mix of sexism and racism”, Harris continued to struggle with public perceptions, he wrote. If the past is any guide, Republicans will try to capitalise on Harris’s uncertain appeal, and weaponise her progressive views, against the constant, unspoken, unwritten and infinitely divisive subtext of colour and ethnicity.It’s already begun, with an AI-generated TV attack ad last week depicting street riots during a second term. Harris was sneered at for another so-called “word salad” public speaking snafu.Watching America, a similarly divided world is “loading for bear”, as Americans say. A victory for Trump, 76, would spell disaster for democracy, Europe – and Ukraine. Yet reactionaries of all stripes prefer that to the prospect of Harris sitting in the Oval. Typically, an opinion piece last week in Britain’s Daily Telegraph warned: “President Kamala Harris should terrify us all”. Oblivious to the irony, the article’s female author suggested Harris was the product of “tokenism” favouring women and minorities.Such mud-slinging is unavoidable. And there’s a lot more to come. Yet looked at another way, Harris has a golden opportunity to turn the tables and de-fang her detractors. Biden’s increasing reliance presages a raised profile and more top-line campaign appearances.It also means Harris, less fearful of White House second-guessing and backstabbing, will be freer to speak her mind. Two powerful Democrat women, Jill Biden and Hillary Clinton, who have not always been entirely supportive, should rally round. Harris has earned this chance to make her case.She is already the administration’s lead advocate for abortion rights following the supreme court’s overturning of Roe v Wade last year. The issue is splitting and hurting Republicans from Nebraska and Wisconsin to South Carolina. Her strong stand on police reform, civil rights, GOP voter suppression, climate and education may energise vital centre-ground support.In this age of disillusionment, of distrust and cynicism about old-boy politics, Harris is honest, passionate – and relatively young. Far from being the liability conventional wisdom suggests, this latest incarnation of the much-abused Veep may prove the Democrats’ saving grace. More

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      Quirky, kooky, a joke … but why is Marianne Williamson so popular with the young?

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      Marianne Williamson is taking over TikTokMarianne Williamson, the self-help author who is making her second bid for the presidency, has a history of saying things that can be characterized as either “deranged” or “quirky” depending on how charitable you’re feeling. Some of her greatest hits include: Tweeting that the “power of the mind” might have changed the course of Hurricane Dorian and stopped it from hitting the US in 2019. (She later deleted the tweet.) Publishing a book in 1992 called A Return to Love where she said that “cancer and Aids and other physical illnesses are physical manifestations of a psychic scream … sickness is an illusion and does not actually exist.” (She’s since said that she’s pro-medicine and pro-science.) Saying that she would “harness love” to defeat Donald Trump during her closing statement at the Democratic presidential debate in 2019. We all know how that one worked out.Unsurprisingly, Williamson’s presidential campaign isn’t being taken remotely seriously by the media or the White House. The Biden administration has laughed off any idea that she’s a proper contender – when the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, was asked about Williamson’s political aspirations in March she joked about not having “a crystal ball”.It’s certainly easy to make fun of Williamson but, while she’s said a lot of questionable things, it’s wrong to dismiss the author as a joke. When she’s not talking about the “power of the mind” Williamson has a lot to say about institutional inequality, the need for universal healthcare, the problems with capitalism, the importance of cancelling student debt, and the complacency of the Democratic establishment. And guess what? An awful lot of young people are listening. Williamson’s very left-leaning videos draw millions of views on TikTok and her speeches often go viral.“If engagement on TikTok is any indication, a Democratic presidential primary held today among people under 50 would result in a landslide for the bestselling author now making her second bid for the nomination,” the Intercept recently noted. And it’s not just TikTok where Williamson is popular: the Intercept further notes that “a recent poll found Williamson hovering above 20% with voters under 30”. Which is a lot better than she was doing in 2020 and is pretty impressive when you consider what a political outsider she is.Then again, of course, it’s the very fact that Williamson is a political outsider that makes her so popular among young people. Williamson has an energy and urgency that is severely lacking in the Democratic party. And she’s not shy about calling the Democrats out for their complacency.Even without a crystal ball, I think we all know that Williamson has zero chance of being in the White House – and I’m certainly not advocating that she should be. But wouldn’t it be nice if the White House adopted some of her energy and a few of her ideas about structural reform? Williamson’s popularity on TikTok isn’t some insignificant online phenomenon – it’s a sign of how disillusioned young people feel with the current system. Establishment Democrats have long preached incrementalism as the only way to move forwards but, when it comes to things like women’s rights, we only seem to be moving backwards. Marianne Williamson isn’t the answer to America’s woes but her TikTok popularity should have the Democrats asking a lot of questions.Half of women have dense breast tissue that doesn’t show up on mammograms“Dense breast tissue is simply tissue that is thicker and glandular, hasn’t turned into fat over time, and it puts women at an automatic four times higher risk of cancer,” Elizabeth L Silver writes. If you have dense breast tissue then a mammogram alone will have a hard time detecting cancer – you need additional screenings such as an ultrasound or MRI. “Yet the decision to supplement a mammogram with this additional screening is, shockingly, one of the largest controversies in women’s health,” Silver explains. “[T]he question has essentially been left to the patient, who knows little about it.”Trump lawyer asks E Jean Carroll why she didn’t scream for help during assault“Women who come forward, one of the reasons they don’t come forward is because they’re always asked, ‘why didn’t you scream?’” Carroll retorted. “He raped me whether I screamed or not.” As Amanda Marcotte writes, Trump’s entire defense in the E Jean Carroll rape trial seems to rest on shameless misogyny.Ghosted is not romantic – it’s a walking red flagChris Evans and Ana de Armas star in a new action-romance called Ghosted with some dire reviews and misogynistic tropes. “What’s sold as a love story, based on following your heart, presents us instead an entitled man who won’t take no for an answer,” Jess Bacon writes in the Guardian. “Sadly, this is nothing new.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionNude landlord no excuse for holding back rent, rules German courtA Frankfurt court found “the usability of the rented property was not impaired by the plaintiff sunning himself naked in the courtyard”.At the CEO level, women finally outnumber men named JohnHowever, there are 60 James/Robert/John CEOs compared with 41 women, according to Bloomberg.Thai conservatives vow to legalise sex toys in bid to shake up electionIt is currently illegal to sell sex toys in Thailand although that obviously doesn’t stop it happening. Now the country’s Democratic party wants to change that, arguing that they’re missing out on lots of taxes. They also came up with some social benefits for legalization: “Sex toys are useful because they could lead to a decrease in prostitution as well as divorce due to a mismatch of sexual libido, and sex-related crimes.” Not sure that vibrators are going to stop sex-related crime, but it’s certainly a creative argument.Voluptuous mermaid statue causes outrage in southern Italy“It looks like a mermaid with two silicone breasts and, above all, a huge arse never seen before on a mermaid,” one critic complained. “At least not any I know.”The week in parrotarchyVideo phone calls are for the birds. Or, to be more specific: the parrots. A new study has found that parrots that are allowed to make video calls to other birds seem to become less lonely. Now we just need to get them on Twitter. More

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      Biden v Trump: US is unenthused by likely rematch of two old white men

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      It is the envy of the world for its diversity and vitality. Yet America appears on a likely course for a presidential election between a white man in his 80s and a white man in his 70s. And yes, they’re the same guys as last time.Joe Biden, the 46th president and oldest in history, this week formally launched his campaign for a second term in a video announcement. The 80-year-old faces no serious challenge from within the Democratic party and told reporters: “They’re going to see a race, and they’re going to judge whether or not I have it or don’t have it.”Donald Trump, the 45th president and second oldest in history, is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. He holds a 46-point lead over Ron DeSantis in the latest Emerson College poll amid growing doubts over the Florida governor’s readiness for the world stage. Trump, 76, has chalked up far more endorsements from members of Congress.There is a very long way to go, and Trump faces myriad legal perils, but most pundits currently agree that a replay of the 2020 election is the most likely scenario next year – one that polls show voters have little appetite for.“I don’t think Americans want to see a sequel,” said Chris Scott, a 34-year-old Democratic strategist from Detroit, Michigan. “Americans are fed up with the Donald Trump saga, even though he still has a number of acolytes in the GOP. They’re just ready to be over that chapter and move on.“With Biden, there’s a lot of people that question: does he have the stamina to do another four years, even though there’s things in his record that have been effective and he’s gotten done? I don’t think anybody wants to see exactly the same rematch that we got four years ago.”Biden’s re-election bid was all but inevitable. This will be his fourth run for the presidency in four decades and, having finally achieved his ambition in 2020, he has little cause to walk away. He can point to arguably the most consequential legislative agenda since President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s and sealed the deal with a better-than-expected performance in last year’s midterm elections, where abortion rights were a pivotal issue.Furthermore, he has no obvious challenger with the Democratic party and benefits from the same conditions as 2020: the fear that Trump poses an existential threat to democracy and the calculation and Biden is best placed to beat him.The president duly promised this week to protect American liberties from “extremists” linked to Trump. A video released by his new campaign team opened with imagery from the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters.Biden said: “When I ran for president four years ago, I said we’re in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are. This is not a time to be complacent. That’s why I’m running for re-election … Let’s finish this job. I know we can.”To retain the White House, Biden will need to enthuse the coalition of young voters and Black voters – particularly women – along with blue-collar midwesterners, moderates and disaffected Republicans who helped him win in 2020.But while the leftwing senator Bernie Sanders and most Democratic elected officials are backing him, voters have doubts about a man who would be 86 by the end of a prospective second term, almost a decade older than the average American male’s life expectancy.Some 44% of Democratic voters say he is too old to run, according a Reuters/Ipsos poll, although it showed him with a lead of 43% to 38% over Trump nationally. Trump also faces concerns about his age, with 35% of Republicans saying he is too old.The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that a majority of registered voters do not want either Biden or Trump to run again. But they may be stuck with it as both men are difficult to dislodge. Biden has the advantage of incumbency while Trump, as a former president with an iron-like grip on his party’s grassroots base, is a quasi-incumbent on the Republican side.Michael Steele, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, said: “Until both parties put something different on the ballot, what’s America going to do? Now the challenge becomes how to keep the respective party bases animated, how to engage independent voters and young people to participate in an election that they’re not thrilled about.”He observed bleakly: “There’s nothing inspirational about American politics today.”Bill Galston, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton, said: “I’ve believed for a long time we’re in for a rematch. There is not a lot of enthusiasm for the rematch but, in the end, people are going to choose sides very firmly and I do not expect it to be a low-turnout election.”America is diversifying culturally and racially but it is also ageing – since 2000, census records show, the national median age has increased by 3.4 years. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington, added: “It is still the case that people above the age of 50 vote in much higher percentages than people below the age of 50 and especially below the age of 30.“The new generation will become much more decisive when it begins to vote in numbers commensurate with its potential demographic clout. But not before.”Following Hillary Clinton v Trump in 2016, and Biden v Trump in 2020 (which saw the highest turnout in more than a century), a rematch between the two men would be the third consecutive election to foreground negative partisanship, with many voters animated by their dislike of other side’s candidate.John Zogby, an author and pollster, said: “Republicans have been worked into a frenzy about Biden and Democrats view Trump as the devil incarnate.“Significant numbers of ‘antis’ really hate the other person. That in itself is a driver. That helps turnout for both sides. At this moment I’ve got to think advantage Democrat. But there’s a long way to go here. There is pressure on Biden. He can’t stumble physically, he can’t make a horrible gaffe, and that’s enormous pressure.”A Biden v Trump rematch would also leave America facing its 250th birthday in 2026 with no female presidents and only one Black president in its history. It fares poorly by comparison with Australia, Britain, Finland, Germany, New Zealand and numerous nations that have elected women as leaders.Trump could choose a female running mate, with potential candidates including Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the UN and one of his rivals for the Republican nomination. Biden will be joined in his 2024 bid by his vice-president, Kamala Harris, who features prominently in his campaign video.Bonnie Morris, a history lecturer at University of California, Berkeley, and author of books including The Feminist Revolution, said: “An interesting question is, given the concerns about Biden’s age or his possible frailty, it sets up the potential for a Black woman to take over should he be elected and fall ill.”The race is not a foregone conclusion, however. Some Republicans say they are weary of Trump’s grievance politics and boorish behaviour – and his repeated electoral defeats. DeSantis has not yet formally launched his campaign and Trump could also face competition from his former vice-president, Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott and others.Trump is uniquely vulnerable this time after becoming the first former president to face criminal charges and because of an array of investigations. In a jarring contrast to Biden’s campaign announcement, Trump was on trial in a civil lawsuit this week over writer E Jean Carroll’s accusation that he raped her in a department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. He has denied raping Carroll.But if Trump does prevail, Democrats insist that they can overcome voter fatigue.Malcolm Kenyatta, 32, the first openly LGBTQ+ person of colour elected to the Pennsylvania general assembly, said: “This campaign is going to be the clearest contrast that maybe you’ve ever seen because I do believe Donald Trump is going to be the nominee. A lot of times you have somebody who’s never been president running against the incumbent and they’ve talking about what they want to do. You have two presidents who have actual records.“Under Trump, you saw the most job losses of any president in American history, an economic moment of turmoil coming out of Covid. I’m excited to get out there and be a part of telling the story of what the president’s real successes have been. You don’t have to sadly vote for President Biden. I’m going to be happily, vigorously excited to vote for him because he has accomplished so much and frankly I don’t give a damn how old he is. I give a damn about what it would mean for working families like mine.” More

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      ‘Not a chance’: Fox News viewers reject Tucker Carlson’s replacement

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      There were a lot of questions floating around after Fox News unceremoniously dumped rightwing firebrand Tucker Carlson on Monday morning.Among them: can the conservative news channel effectively replace its most popular host, a grievance-filled firebrand who drew in more than 3 million viewers every night?The answer, on this week’s evidence, is no.Every night this week it has filled Carlson’s slot with Brian Kilmeade, an eager substitute who, in his regular role on the Fox and Friends morning show, serves as an excitable, unthreatening everyman.Every night viewers have given an unforgiving verdict on Kilmeade’s efforts: by turning off in their droves.It’s a shame for Kilmeade, but a clue as to how he might be received had already come early on Monday.“Join me tonight at 8 pm!” he tweeted an hour before his show started a now Tucker-free Fox News line-up. It turned out that not only did people not want to join Kilmeade, they were furious that he was going to be on air in place of their fallen hero.“Not a chance in hell ya sellout,” was one of the more polite online responses, while someone else noted: “I’d rather watch grass grow.”Undeterred, Kilmeade kicked things off on Monday with the briefest of references to the man he was temporarily replacing.“As you probably have heard, Fox News and Tucker Carlson have agreed to part ways. I wish Tucker the best, I’m great friends with Tucker and always will be,” Kilmeade said.“But right now, it’s time for Fox News Tonight, so let’s get started!”For some people, it was time to get started on switching channels. On Monday the audience for Kilmeade, a less angry, less charismatic, apparently less race-obsessed host, was 47% of the number Carlson had attracted a week earlier, according to the Los Angeles Times.It isn’t just that Carlson’s departure has turned off viewers. The hastily renamed Fox News Tonight show appears to have actively driven people to Fox News’ competitors, with Newsmax in particular, seeing record ratings.Watching Kilmeade’s shows this week, it is clear that he is rather one-note. That note is attacking Joe Biden, which he has done enthusiastically, but with none of the vitriol of his predecessor.“Let’s get started!” Kilmeade declared (again) on Tuesday evening.“80-year-old Joe Biden is officially running for president again,” he said.“Big surprise. This morning he released the single most divisive campaign ad we’ll see in a long time, I hope ever.”When Biden ran in 2020, Kilmeade said he “campaigned on the idea that police are racist”. This was news to this observer, but never mind, because according to Kilmeade: “He’s not talking about that anymore.”Kilmeade pointed out – accurately – that the number of police officers in Seattle had declined. Crime has not gotten significantly worse: “The violent crime rate for the city of Seattle increased from 729 per 100,000 in 2021 to 736 per 100,000 in 2022,” but drug deaths, in common with the rest of the nation, have increased.Kilmeade said that the state of Washington is struggling to pass new drug laws, after a previous law was ruled unconstitutional by the state supreme court. As it stands drug possession will become legal in the state on 1 July.“The result of all that is that fentanyl is flowing into Washington state big time,” Kilmeade said, ignoring the fact that he’d just told us the law was in place through the end of June, and offering no source for the big-time increase.With Carlson, this would have been read as a deliberate misdirection. With Kilmeade, it’s not clear if he just got confused.After some more stuff on fentanyl – inevitably the blame was laid at Biden’s door, despite the Washington law being state, not federal – Kilmeade returned to Biden’s announcement.“Joe Biden announced today that he’s running for president, again. If he wins, he’ll be 82, when he’s done at the end of his term he’ll be 86,” Kilmeade said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“In his announcement video today Joe Biden was as divisive, in my view, as he possibly could be. He said if you don’t vote for him, you are not interested in protecting democracy,” Kilmeade said of Biden’s ad.He apparently hadn’t seen Donald Trump’s ad, from earlier in April, in which the former president said he was running against “radical left lunatics”. In an ad from August 2022, three months before he announced his bid for the presidency, Trump talked ominously about “the tyrants we are fighting”.Kilmeade invited Marianne Williamson, the health guru and sometime vaccine skeptic who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020, to take a pop at Biden.Instead he effectively gave Williamson four minutes of airtime to give a campaign speech, in which she touted universal healthcare and free college tuition. It’s hard to imagine Carlson doing the same.By Wednesday, there was a distinct sense that Kilmeade and his writers were running out of ideas.“Good evening and welcome to Fox News Tonight,” Kilmeade chirped at the top of the show.“Glad you’re here. You know, we told you last night about Joe Biden’s big 2024 campaign announcement video.”Kilmeade did not add: “Well giddy up, because we’re going to tell you all about it again,” but he might as well have done. He told viewers they should go on YouTube – “like I did today” – and look at the comments under Biden’s video.The comments were not kind, Kilmeade said, and he excitedly read a few out, after announcing that “the Democrats have embraced totalitarianism”.There followed a sort of whip-around, tick-the-boxes analysis of Biden’s presidency so far, featuring China, inflation, fentanyl, immigration and the government’s efforts to attract and retain women to engineering jobs.“It’s social engineering, not real engineering,” Kilmeade quipped.In sticking to his attacks on Biden, Kilmeade is on safe ground. But it isn’t going to excite a Fox News audience who Carlson has filled with a lust for blood.The appeal of Carlson wasn’t just that he didn’t like Biden. It was that there were loads of other things that upset him too: trans people, people of color, immigrants, many women, and the idea that white people may no longer rule the US with impunity.Perhaps Kilmeade just isn’t as angry as Carlson.He certainly doesn’t seem it. He isn’t as good a performer either – throughout the week the extent to which he was obviously reading the autocue became distracting, and viewers may have missed Carlson’s patented angry eyes, open-mouthed look.With Kilmeade, so far, proving unable or unwilling to plumb the same depths as Carlson, it’s hard to see him becoming a permanent replacement.Carlson’s great skill was giving the audience a wide variety of things to hate and fear. By contrast Kilmeade, with his comparatively milquetoast focus on Biden, is stuck in first gear. More

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      As one door opens for Biden, another shuts on Carlson – podcast

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      Joe Biden finally launched his much anticipated re-election bid for 2024 this week. For the next year, news networks will cover extensively his campaign, and those of candidates running against him, but there will be an interesting shift in who exactly will be leading that coverage. In surprise news anchor exits, Tucker Carlson was fired from Fox News and Don Lemon from CNN, and there are rumours that Carlson might even run for president himself.
      Jonathan Freedland is joined by the political analyst and pollster Cornell Belcher to discuss the headlines from a big week in US politics

      How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know More