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I fear for freedom of the press under a second Donald Trump administration | Margaret Sullivan
by Evelyn Reynolds 27 October 2024, 10:00
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This is the first part of the standfirst This is the second part of the standfirst Headline what’s at stake?
Back in early 2016, as Donald Trump ran for president, he issued a warning that sent a chill down the spines of journalists and press advocates.After ranting about the New York Times and the Washington Post at a Texas campaign rally, Trump predicted that traditional news organizations would have big problems if he were elected. He planned to “open up” the libel laws, so that “when they write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them and win lots of money”.As with many of Trump’s threats, that one didn’t come to fruition. More than eight years later, the law still stands that public figures can only win a lawsuit against a news outlet if it can be proved that the outlet published information knowing it was entirely false or had a “reckless disregard” for the truth. The 1964 supreme court case, New York Times Co v Sullivan, which established this press-protecting precedent, hasn’t been overturned.View image in fullscreenBut a lot has changed since 2016 – including the increasingly conservative bent of the US supreme court after three Trump appointees. If Trump is elected in November, the laws that protect news organizations might crumble or be weakened.And while Trump did not get his wish about changing the libel laws, he nevertheless has done a great deal to damage press rights in America.As president for four years – and as a candidate both before and after that term – Trump has continually waged war with the mainstream press while he used the rightwing press for his political purposes.As recently as this month, Trump demanded that CBS News be stripped of its broadcast licence as punishment for airing an edited answer of an interview with his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris and he threatened that other broadcasters ought to suffer the same fate.For years, he stirred up hatred of reporters by calling them the “enemy of the people” – an echo of the language of fascist dictators. He frequently referred to legitimate journalism as “fake news”, and publicly insulted individual reporters.View image in fullscreenFamously, in 2018, the Trump White House revoked a CNN reporter’s press pass as retaliation for persistent questions at a press conference. Trump called that reporter, Jim Acosta, a “terrible person”.“This is something I’ve never seen since I started covering the White House in 1996,” wrote the New York Times correspondent Peter Baker. “Other presidents did not fear tough questioning.”Trump made a point of disparaging reporters, particularly women of color, and of questioning their intelligence or integrity.Over the course of one week in late 2018, he berated three Black women reporters – Yamiche Alcindor of PBS, April Ryan of American Urban Radio Networks and Abby Phillip of CNN.“You talk about someone who’s a loser,” he said of Ryan. “She doesn’t know what the hell she’s doing.”Trump’s enmity took many forms, including lawsuits. In 2022, he sued the Pulitzer prize board after they defended their awards to the New York Times and the Washington Post. 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More recently, Trump sued ABC News and George Stephanopoulos for defamation over the way the anchor characterized the verdict in E Jean Carroll’s sexual misconduct case against him. Each of those cases is wending its way through the courts.There is nothing to suggest that Trump would soften his approach in a second term. If anything, we can expect even more aggression.Consider what one of Trump’s most loyal lieutenants, Kash Patel, has said.“We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections,” Patel threatened during a podcast with Steve Bannon. “Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out.”Patel, a former federal prosecutor who was Trump’s counterterrorism adviser on the national security council, has been mentioned as Trump’s pick for FBI director or attorney general.It’s this kind of rhetoric, combined with Trump’s past behavior, that caused one Washington-based science writer to express his concerns in a piece titled “Will Journalism Be a Crime in a Second Trump Administration?”Environmental journalists “are used to worrying about things that are endangered”, wrote Joseph A Davis in the journal of the Society of Environmental Journalists.“So we think it’s time to add press freedom and democracy to the endangered list.”View image in fullscreenIn addition, consider Project 2025. The blueprint for a second term from Trump’s allies is a press-rights nightmare.Under Project 2025, seizing journalists’ emails and phone records would get easier. The editorial independence of Voice of America would be sharply curtailed; in fact, the global organization might be shut down altogether. Former officials who talk to reporters would be punished. Funding for NPR, PBS and public broadcasting would dry up.“A pretty grim picture,” was the conclusion of Joshua Benton of Harvard University after analyzing Project 2025 from the perspective of press rights.“The first time around, there was at least a modicum of uncertainty about what a Trump administration would actually do,” Benton wrote in Nieman Lab. “The second time, voters knew better, and they rejected it. The third time? Well, no one can say it’ll come as a surprise.”As for Kamala Harris’s attitude toward press rights, we don’t know a great deal, except that she’s doing things in the normal, pre-Trump way.Her web site’s policy section trumpets her defense of “fundamental freedoms”, stressing reproductive rights and voting rights, but not freedom of the press.In a new report on press freedom and the election, the Committee to Protect Journalists reports that neither presidential candidate responded to their request to pledge clear support for press freedom.The CPJ report found that Trump’s antipathy for journalists has left lasting harm, from the local to the global level, harm that was not adequately repaired during the Biden years.“The hostile media climate fostered during Donald Trump’s presidency has continued to fester, with members of the press confronting challenges – including violence, lawsuits, online harassment, and police attacks – that could shape the global media environment for decades,” according to the report.“The stakes of this election are incredibly high,” the report’s author, Katherine Jacobsen, told me.After Joe Biden passed Harris the torch over the summer, the vice-president came under fire for not quickly sitting down for an interview or doing a press conference.She promised to do an in-depth interview by the end of August – and met her self-imposed deadline.That first was with CNN’s Dana Bash, certainly a mainstream choice. Harris has since fielded questions from members of the National Association of Black Journalists at WHYY, the public radio station in Philadelphia. And she sat down in September to discuss her economic policy plans with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle.View image in fullscreenThere’s little to suggest that she’ll try to portray the press as the enemy of the people or start prosecuting journalists under the Espionage Act. Such prosecution did happen under Trump. (It also did under Barack Obama, though that has been largely forgotten in the chaos of the last eight years.)Trump’s justice department seized the phone and email records of a New York Times reporter, Ali Watkins, and used the Espionage Act to jail a journalistic source, Reality Winner, for leaking a classified document about Russian interference in the 2016 election.Trump’s affinity for autocratic leaders adds another layer of concern.Writing in the Washington Post, the publisher of the New York Times, AG Sulzberger, raised an alarm about whom Trump looks up to.“If Trump follows through on promises to continue [his anti-press] campaign in a second term,” Sulzberger wrote, “his efforts would likely be informed by his open admiration for the ruthlessly effective playbook of authoritarians,” such as the Hungarian leader, Viktor Orbán.Sulzberger, though, also wrote that he had no intention of allowing these concerns to affect his paper’s straight-news coverage: “I disagree with those who have suggested that the risk Trump poses to the free press is so high that news organizations such as mine should cast aside neutrality and directly oppose his reelection.” In its opinion pages, however, the Times’s editorial board has called Trump unfit to lead and strongly endorsed Harris, calling her “the only patriotic choice for president”.It would be heartening to hear Kamala Harris publicly express her support for the essential role of the press in a free society, something to be protected and even celebrated. That may never come to pass.Still, it’s probably reasonable to assume Harris will treat the press as many Oval Office dwellers have in the past, as something of a burr under the presidential saddle.By contrast, Donald Trump poses a clear threat to journalists, to news organizations and to press freedom in the US and around the world.Trust in the media may be low, and American citizens may not be fans of journalists or their work.But they ought to know that just as longstanding reproductive rights have collapsed in recent years, press rights – already reeling – could suffer the same fate.
Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture More
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A small town in Jamaica watches Harris campaign with pride – and wariness
by Evelyn Reynolds 27 October 2024, 08:00
Brown’s Town, in the Jamaican parish of St Ann – where as a child, Kamala Harris spent many holidays with her family – has the unmistakable atmosphere of a close-knit rural Caribbean community.Narrow roads, cocooned by bowing trees and lush vegetation, wind past concrete houses and the rolling hills of the Dry Harbour mountain range.It gets busier in the town itself, where vehicles toot their horns as they manoeuvre past colourfully painted shops and the local market that a young Kamala used to visit with her parents.The town of 6,000 inhabitants is named after an Irish enslaver, Hamilton Brown, who is believed to have been an ancestor of Harris’s paternal great-grandmother Christiana Brown, known in the family as Miss Chrishy.Heading out of the market area, the road arrives at the Harris family estate in Orange Hill, where Harris’s 86-year-old father, the distinguished economist Donald Harris, was born in 1938.The estate now has a quarry and some family homes. But it was once a place of adventure and delight for Harris, recalled her first cousin Sherman Harris, as he pointed to the areas where they used to play together.View image in fullscreenOnly a few days younger than the vice-president, Sherman remembers the Christmas holidays Harris and her younger sister, Maya, spent with their family in the Caribbean.“Maya was a little quiet, but Kamala was like a tomboy, running, jumping and leaping around the mountain areas. Miss Chrishy had to call her and tell her to ‘get inside now, it’s dinner time – come and stop the jumping over those places’,” he said.“And she would just do it for the better because her father encouraged her,” he added.Even as a child, Sherman said, Kamala asked questions that belied her age and demonstrated “a deep level of intelligence and a mindset far above what we were accustomed to as little kids”.When she could not get answers from her peers, she would turn to her dad, he said.Harris has spoken fondly about her parents – Donald Harris and Shyamala Gopalan, a biomedical scientist who was born and grew up in India – describing “a home filled with laughter and music: Aretha, Coltrane and Miles”.She paid tribute to her father for believing in her, saying: “At the park, my mother would say: ‘Stay close.’ But my father would say, as he smiled: ‘Run, Kamala, run. Don’t be afraid. Don’t let anything stop you.’ From my earliest years, he taught me to be fearless.”The New York Times reported this month that relations between father and daughter grew strained after her parents’ divorce in 1972. The relationship worsened over the years, according to the article, which claimed that Harris had been upset when her father did not attend Gopalan’s funeral in 2009.Sherman dismissed the reported rift as “total rubbish”.“We know that, but we don’t fight issues with people because it’s a losing battle. People have all kinds of different views. I even saw [people] on social media saying her father said he is not going to vote for her, but it’s not true. He is in full support of her, and he is happy for her,” he said.After her parents’ divorce, Harris’s childhood was mostly split between Montreal, where her mother taught at McGill University, and California, where her father taught at Stanford University.“My father, like so many Jamaicans, has immense pride in our Jamaican heritage and instilled that same pride in my sister and me,” Harris told the Washington Post in 2021. “We love Jamaica. He taught us the history of where we’re from, the struggles and beauty of the Jamaican people, and the richness of the culture.”View image in fullscreenDonald Trump has sought to question Harris’s mixed heritage, falsely claiming that she had only identified with her mother’s ethnicity. “She was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden she made a turn, and she went – she became a Black person,” he said.But Sherman Harris said that the connection between his cousin and Jamaica has always been strong: “Jamaicans are indeed proud of her, and Jamaicans ought to be proud of her,” he said.Certainly, in St Ann parish, there has been strong support for the Democratic candidate. Mayor Michael Belnavis told CNN: “You have to recognize individuals who come from humble abodes and really excel … Coming from Brown’s Town is as humble as it gets.”Harris’s achievements – as San Francisco district attorney, California senator, vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate – have inspired Jamaicans across the island.“It says to me that it doesn’t matter your race or your background. As long as you hold your head up high, know what you want and go for it, you can be whatever you want to be,” said Alexcia White, a journalism student in Kingston. “She just makes me proud to know that she is of Jamaican descent and making big waves in the US.”Others question whether a Harris presidency would actually bring any concrete benefits for the country.“Will she do anything that will improve our economy? I don’t see how her becoming president will affect Jamaicans,” said architecture student Dana McCallum, who expressed hope Harris could make US visas more accessible for Jamaicans if she won.Marlon Hill, a Jamaican-American lawyer who served as an elector for Florida for Barack Obama in 2008, warned about overstating Harris’s connection to Jamaica, adding that “Kamala’s immigrant story is unique, and we should not draw a straight line to it being exactly the same as our own experience”.He said: “Jamaicans want her to say more vocal, visible things about their connection. And I don’t know if we’re going to get that in this campaign because she’s running to be the president of the entire United States of America, and not just for Americans of Jamaican descent.“What I would say, though, is that when she wins, it’s going to be up to us, as Jamaican Americans, to hold her accountable to have a keen interest in her heritage and in how that experience can be leveraged for the benefit of Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean.”Not all Jamaican Americans are Democrats: Commonwealth Games gold medalist Claston Bernard, who ran for the United States House of Representatives as a Republican in 2021, said that, notwithstanding Harris’s Jamaican roots, he could not support her policies, citing his views on religious freedom, abortion and wealth taxes. “Jamaicans should be very cautious about getting behind socialist policies that do not support wealth building, are a threat to religious worship, or attack the rights of people to bear arms to protect themselves and their properties,” he said.Whatever their views, the elections on 5 November are expected to be a historic moment for Jamaicans at home, in the US and around the world. In the small community of Brown’s Town, Sherman and other residents will be looking forward to the moment Kamala is declared president of the US.“I have no doubt that the American people will favour her because she is getting good support,” Sherman said, adding: “She is going to make history, and Jamaica’s name, its flag, is going to fly high once more!” More
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US presidential election updates: Michelle Obama gets personal, and Trump courts Muslim voters
by Evelyn Reynolds 27 October 2024, 03:27
Michelle Obama excoriated Donald Trump in strikingly personal terms on Saturday, asking rally-goers in Michigan why Kamala Harris was being held to a higher standard than her opponent, citing his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his efforts to cling to power after losing the 2020 election.“I hope you’ll forgive me if I’m a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump’s gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn,” Obama said at an event for Kamala Harris in Kalamazoo.It marks a significant change in tack for Obama, who inspired Democrats with the slogan “when they go low, we go high” when Hillary Clinton was running against Trump.Saturday was the first day that early in-person voting became available across Michigan. More than 1.4 million ballots have already been submitted, representing 20% of registered voters.Here’s what else happened on Saturday:Donald Trump election news
Donald Trump said he deserved the support of Muslim voters because he would end conflicts and bring peace to the Middle East. “That’s all they want,” Trump said at a rally outside Detroit, adding he had just met a group of local imams. Trump fully backs Israel but has not said how he would end the conflict in the region. Trump appears to be gaining support from some Muslim Americans upset with President Joe Biden’s and Harris’ support of Israel, and despite Trump banning immigration from some Muslim-majority countries in his first term as president. Imam Belal Alzuhairi of the Islamic Center of Detroit joined Trump on stage, saying, “We ask Muslims to stand with President Trump because he promises peace.”
Trump’s lengthy discussion with Joe Rogan revealed a surprising amount about his disposition before descending into the usual Trump rambles, writes Sam Wolfson. Aside from his assertion that his biggest mistake he made during his presidency was hiring “disloyal people”, Trump responded honestly about the challenges of becoming president without having any political experience, saying it was more surreal than later being shot in the tip of one of his ears. He said that he “had made his money largely on luxury” and that he was amazed by how beautiful it was inside the White House. But then it was back to the regular targets: he demonised migrants, spoke warmly about Vladimir Putin and falsely claimed the 2020 election had been stolen from him. Rogan tried to push him on nuclear power and the environment, but Trump only wanted to discuss how ugly he finds windfarms.
Kamala Harris election news
Michelle Obama made her first appearance on the campaign trail since her blockbuster speech at the Democratic national convention in August. She urged voters to back Harris not because she’s a woman but “because Kamala Harris is a grown-up – and Lord knows we need a grown-up in the White House”. When Harris spoke at the Michigan rally, she promised to be a president who listened to the American people, unlike her opponent, whom she accused of “looking in the mirror all the time”. “Just imagine the Oval Office in three months,” she said. “It is either Donald Trump in there stewing over his enemies’ list – or me working for you, checking off my to-do list.”
Harris visited a local doctor’s office in nearby Portage, where she spoke to healthcare providers and medical students about the impact of abortion restrictions. Harris has made protecting what remains of abortion access a major theme of her closing argument to voters, using it to draw a sharp contrast with Trump, who has claimed credit for his role in overturning Roe v Wade but insisted he would allow a nationwide ban as president.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail
Less than a fortnight before polling day, Harris and Trump are locked in a nail-bitingly close US presidential election race, our 10-day polling tracking average shows. According to poll averages, Harris leads by a single point in Michigan and by less than 1% in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump has a two-point lead in North Carolina and a one-point lead in Arizona.
High-profile Trump backer Elon Musk briefly worked illegally in the US after abandoning a graduate studies program in California, according to a Washington Post report that contrasted the episode with his anti-immigration views. The South African multibillionaire has previously maintained that his transition from student to entrepreneur was a “legal grey area”.
Read more about the 2024 US election:
Presidential poll tracker
Harris and Trump policies
What to know about early voting More
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Michelle Obama introduces Harris at Michigan rally; across state, Trump joined by Arab and Muslim leaders
by Evelyn Reynolds 26 October 2024, 21:43
Senator Bob Casey attacked his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, over allegations that he fostered a toxic work environment as CEO of the hedge fund Bridgewater, describing the claims as “disqualifying”.“I’ve always placed a priority on combating sexual harassment in the workplace, and apparently at Bridgewater, it was just a whole different story,” Casey told reporters this morning.“So he’s being held accountable for that, and he should be held accountable. I think that alone is disqualfiying. If you’ve engaged in that kind of activity in the private sector, you should not be a public official at any level.”The Casey campaign released an ad this week highlighting claims that McCormick attempted to silence or retaliate against female employees of Bridgewater who came forward with harassment claims.Casey’s campaign manager also penned a letter calling on McCormick to demand that Bridgewater release employees who reported harassment from their non-disclosure agreements.“It is your responsibility to ensure the voters of Pennsylvania have complete information about your record before casting their votes,” Tiernan Donohue, Casey’s campaign manager, wrote in the letter. “They deserve the full story.”Speaking to reporters after his event with the Carpenters Union, Senator Bob Casey said he believes the momentum and enthusiasm on the ground in Pennsylvania will lift Democrats to victory in 10 days.“I think it is close. There’s no question about that,” Casey said. “That energy and intensity on the ground is starting to uplift our side. I’ve never seen the number of volunteers that we’ve seen in this state. Every weekend they’re breaking another record.”Asked specifically about whether young voters will turn out to vote for him and Kamala Harris, Casey expressed confidence that they would.“I think the turnout is going to be high,” Casey said. “Young voters might engage a little late, but I think they’re ready to vote.”Kamala Harris is drawing out the personal and political differences between her and Donald Trump.“I grew up in a middle class neighborhood with a working mother who kept a strict budget and did everything she could to make sure my sister and I had all that we needed. I come from the middle class, and I will never forget where I come from,” Harris said.Trump’s “agenda is all laid out in Project 2025, which I still must say, I cannot believe they put that in writing,” she added, before going on to talk about her plan for a child tax credit and to lower housing and healthcare costs.Senator Bob Casey addressed members of the Carpenters Union in Philadelphia this morning, as the three-term Democrat enters the final 10 days of his race against Republican Dave McCormick.Casey, whose race has grown increasingly close in recent weeks, again critcized McCormick over his leadership of the hedge fund Bridgewater and his recent residency in Connecticut.“He was investing in Chinese oil companies, investing in Chinese steel companies and betting against US Steel — hurting our workers, hurting our companies. That is his record as a hedge fund CEO,” Casey said.“I’ll put my record — fighting for families in this state, investing in communities in this state and fighting for working men and women — I’ll put that record up against his record any day of the week.”Thanking the union for its support throughout his political career, Casey added, “I’m going to work night and day for the next 10 days, like I’ve been working my whole life, to earn your votes and to earn your trust.”Protesters demonstrating against the war in Gaza briefly interrupted Kamala Harris’ rally in Kalamazoo.The crowd chanted over the protesters before Harris continued, “And listen on the topic of Gaza, we must end that war, and we must end the war and bring the hostages home, but now I am speaking about 2024″.”Michelle Obama has welcomed Kamala Harris to the stage in Kalamazoo.“The stakes are high, because, as [Michelle Obama] reminds us, as my mother taught me, don’t just complain about injustice, do something,” Harris said.Michelle Obama says Kamala Harris will defend reproductive freedom “not because she’s a woman, but because she’s a decent human being.”“She will usher in a new generation of American leadership and send the ugliness of Donald Trump and his politics, back where it belongs. The past,” Obama said, before encouraging the crowd in Kalamazoo to “do something” and talk to their family and community about voting.Michelle Obama is painting a picture of what restricted reproductive health care could look like across the United States if Donald Trump is re-elected.“We will see more doctors hesitating or shying away from providing life saving treatments because they are worried about being arrested. More medical students reconsidering even pursuing women’s health at all. More OB-GYN clinics without enough doctors to meet demand, closing their doors, leaving untold numbers of women in communities throughout this country without a place to go for basic gynecological care, which in turn, will leave millions of us at risk of undiagnosed medical issues like cervical and uterine cancers,” Obama said.“To the men who love us, let me just try to paint a picture of what it will feel like if America, the wealthiest nation on Earth, keeps revoking the basic care from its women, and how it will affect every single woman in your life,” she continued.“I am asking y’all, from the core of my being, to take our lives seriously,” she said. “Do not put our lives in the hands of politicians, mostly men, who have no clue or do not care about what we as women are going through.”Michelle Obama is asking the crowd at Kamala Harris’s rally in Kalamazoo to consider which presidential candidate they think will look out for their civil and reproductive rights.“If you’ve ever been out there marching and weeping for justice, who do you think is going to have your back? Is it Donald Trump, who once took out a full-page ad to demonize innocent young Black teenagers in New York City, who has dreamed openly about his own version of a purge, where, in his words, he has said for one day, one real rough, nasty day, he says he will allow cops to use violence indiscriminately?” Obama said.“There’s more at stake than just protecting a woman’s choice to give birth, and sadly, we as women and girls have not been socialized to talk openly about our reproductive health. We’ve been taught instead to feel shame and to hide how our bodies work,” she added, describing the stigma many women feel discussing everything from menstruation to menopause.“And look, I don’t expect any man to fully grasp how vulnerable this makes us feel, to understand the complexities of our reproductive health experiences. In all honesty, most of us as women don’t fully understand the breadth and depth of our own reproductive lives,” she said. “There’s a huge disparity in research funding for women’s health, and if you happen to look like me and report pain, you’re more likely to be ignored even by your own doctors,” she added, to a chorus of agreement.“If we keep dismantling parts of our reproductive care system piece by piece, as Trump intends to do, I want folks to understand the chilling effect, not just on critical abortion care, but on the entirety of women’s health.”Still speaking in Kalamazoo, Michelle Obama has criticized Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic and January 6 attack.“When the American people fired him from a job that was too big for him to begin with, he tried to steal it,” Obama said. Referencing the growing list of former Trump administration officials who have noted the ex-president’s authoritarian tendencies, Obama added, “These folks know that nothing this man says or does is funny in any way. So I hope you’ll forgive me if I’m a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump’s gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn.”“I hope that you will forgive me if I am worried that we will blow this opportunity to finally turn the page on the ugliness once and for all, because, believe me, if Donald Trump is president again at some point or another, that ugliness will touch all of our lives.”In an interview with Meet the Press, JD Vance has tried to explain Donald Trump’s comments on “the enemy from within.Vance told moderator Kristen Welker: “I think what Donald Trump said is that those folks pose a greater threat to United States’ peace and security because America is strong enough to stand up to any foreign adversary.” The full interview will air tomorrow.Although she says she hates politics, Michelle Obama says the stakes of this election were too high for her to sit it out.“I wanted to do everything in my power to remind the country that I love that there’s too much we stand to lose if we get this one wrong,” the former first lady said.Obama also called out the higher standards that Black women are held to as some have criticized Harris. “They accuse her of not providing enough policy detail. Some wonder, do we really know her? Is she too aggressive? Is she not aggressive enough? There are folks sowing seeds of doubt about whether she’s who she appears to be,” Obama said. “Now, don’t get me wrong, voters have every right to ask hard questions of any candidate seeking office, but can someone tell me why we are once again holding Kamala to a higher standard than her opponent?”“For Trump, we expect nothing at all, no understanding of policy, no ability to put together a coherent argument, no honesty, no decency, no morals.”Speaking at the Harris campaign’s rally in Kalamazoo, Michelle Obama seeks to draw a stark comparison between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Kamala Harris is “showing us what a sane, stable leader looks like,” the former first lady said. “That’s because Kamala Harris is a grown-up. And Lord knows we need a grown-up in the White House.”“This is someone who understands you, all of you, someone from a middle class family raised mostly by her mom, like so many of us, leaning on her neighbors, like we all do, that’s what you want in a president,” Obama said.“With all that being said, I got to ask myself, well, why on earth is this race even close?” she added “It’s clear to me that the question isn’t whether Kamala is ready for this moment, because by every measure, she has demonstrated that she’s ready. The real question is, as a country, are we ready for this moment.”Michelle Obama is speaking now at Kamala Harris’ rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan. The former first lady, who was welcomed onstage to uproarious applause, called the city “Kamala-zoo”. More
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‘A lot of fun’: will Trump’s rambling Joe Rogan interview rally young men?
by Evelyn Reynolds 26 October 2024, 20:00
In an interview in which Donald Trump said that he wants to be “a whale psychologist”, made the case for replacing income tax with tariffs and praised Confederate general Robert E Lee as a “genius”, the most striking thing about the former president’s encounter with podcaster Joe Rogan wasn’t the content as much as the length.Over three hours, perhaps the longest ever campaign interview with a presidential candidate, Trump said very little that was factual but revealed a surprising amount about his disposition and his thinking should he return to office.The Republican nominee’s appearance on Rogan makes smart political sense. Rogan, a commentator on Ultimate Fighting Championship broadcasts and comedian, began podcasting in 2009 and is now the most successful host in history. The Joe Rogan Experience is continually atop the global charts on both Apple and Spotify, earning almost half a billion dollars from deals with the latter.For months now, the Democrats and their nominee, Kamala Harris, have been polling surprisingly poorly with young men compared with previous election cycles, creating consternation among party insiders. Rogan reaches the kind of politically skeptical young men with low trust in Washington DC – and in the news media that both parties believe could help them reach the White House.That’s why at the start of the week, with polls tightening and Democrats concerned they may be “blowing” the election, the rumours were that it would be Harris who would appear on the podcast. It could have been one of the few media appearances that actually shifts the conversation and could have won over some undecideds. But her team eventually backed out of an appearance, perhaps concerned about the long freewheeling format. So it was announced that it would be Trump who would appear on the show.Rogan’s initial questioning of Trump was inquisitive and unexpected. He asked about what it felt like entering the White House with no political experience. Trump responded honestly, saying it was more surreal than later being shot in the tip of one of his ears. He said that he “had made his money largely on luxury” and that he was amazed by how beautiful it was inside. He talked about the difficulties of transition for a non-politician who had “no experience and no idea who to appoint”. He sympathised with Mary Todd Lincoln’s “melancholia”. It seemed like Rogan’s inquisitive style might get something new from the former president.But very quickly the interview descended into a long, rambling and often boring venture through Trump’s greatest hits. He demonised migrants, spoke warmly about Vladimir Putin and falsely claimed the 2020 election had been stolen from him. Rogan tried to push him on nuclear power and the environment. But Trump only wanted to discuss how ugly he finds windfarms – and how their vibrations upset the whales – and the ways in which environmental regulations would stop him getting permits for his buildings in New York.In May, pollsters for the New York Times/Siena College analysed their data to see what were the key predictors for why a voter who supported Joe Biden when he defeated Trump in 2020 might defect to the Republican against Harris.They found that the No 1 predictor was whether the voter was born in the Middle East, a reflection of the Democrats’ position on the war in Gaza. The No 2 predictor was whether they had a favorable view of Rogan. For some young male voters, he’s their main source of political information.Rogan himself is a political riddle. He’s a conspiracy theorist and an anti-vaxxer and so is often painted as rightwing or Trump-supporting – but he’s actually got a complex and often conflicting set of beliefs. He fiercely defends abortion rights, gay marriage and gun rights. He’s gravitated toward outsider candidates like Bernie Sanders and RFK Jr – he voted for the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen in the previous election. In 2022, Rogan described Trump as an “existential threat to democracy”.Harris, who has been struggling to define herself with voters, may have found the relaxed atmosphere helpful – especially as Rogan tends to always agree with what his guests say.He allowed to Trump brazenly lie – about election fraud, the deficit, his tax policy and many other issues – without ever challenging him. He also appeared to agree with him on many positions that he’s previously taken the opposite stance and painted election deniers as an oppressed group, saying: “You get labelled, it’s like being labelled an anti-vaxxer.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe pair discussed Rogan’s previous support for RFK Jr, who Trump promised could do “whatever” when it came to health policy in his administration, which placated the podcast host but may concern the mainstream scientific and medical community against whom Kennedy has railed.Rogan had one good moment as an interviewer, asking Trump if he was ever going to “present” his supposed evidence of election tampering. But he let Trump ramble on to a different topic: Hunter Biden’s laptop.Because of this easy ride, Trump came off sounding old, doddering and unintelligent – but politically unscathed. He was allowed to blame all of America’s ills on Democrats and paint himself as a great leader. He attacked Harris, calling her “low IQ” and that she “couldn’t put two sentences together”. She was one of a number of women whom Trump and Rogan dismissed as “stupid”, perhaps with a nod to the young misogynist voters who could be persuaded to vote for the former president.For the most part, Rogan – not the smartest cookie himself – simply nodded along. He finished by saying having Trump on was “a lot of fun”.For anyone else who made it through all three hours, that might have been the biggest lie of all. More
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Elon Musk worked in US illegally in 1995 after quitting school – report
by Evelyn Reynolds 26 October 2024, 18:46
Elon Musk briefly worked illegally in the US after abandoning a graduate studies program in California, according to a Washington Post report that contrasted the episode with the South African multibillionaire’s anti-immigration views.The boss of Tesla and SpaceX, who has in recent weeks supported Donald Trump’s campaign for a second presidency while promoting the Republican White House nominee’s opposition to “open borders” on his X social media site, has previously maintained that his transition from student to entrepreneur was a “legal grey area”.But the Washington Post reported Saturday that the world’s wealthiest individual was almost certainly working in the US without correct authorization for a period in 1995 after he dropped out of Stanford University to work on his debut company, Zip2, which sold for about $300m four years later.Legal experts said foreign students cannot drop out of school to build a company even if they are not getting paid. The Post also noted that – prior to the September 11 terrorist attacks agains the US in 2001 – regulation for student visas was more lax.“If you do anything that helps to facilitate revenue creation, such as design code or try to make sales in furtherance of revenue creation, then you’re in trouble,” Leon Fresco, a former US justice department immigration litigator, told the outlet.But the Post also acknowledged: “While overstaying a student visa is somewhat common and officials have at times turned a blind eye to it, it remains illegal.”Musk has previously said: “I was legally there, but I was meant to be doing student work. I was allowed to do work sort of supporting whatever.”Musk employs 121,000 people at Tesla, about 13,000 at SpaceX and nearly 3,000 at X. The scrutiny of his immigration status after dropping out of Stanford comes after Trump has touted his desire for Musk to play a high-profile role focused on government efficiency in a second Trump administration if voters return him to office at the expense of Kamala Harris in the 5 November election.Musk in turn has accused the vice-president and her fellow Democrats of “importing voters” through illegal and temporary protected status immigration. During a recent Trump campaign appearance, he compared the US-Mexico border to a “zombie apocalypse” – even as he had also previously described himself as “extremely pro immigrant, being one myself”.Bloomberg News recently published an analysis of more than 53,000 posts sent from Musk’s X account, finding that the entrepreneur’s output turned increasingly political this election year.“In 2024, immigration and voter fraud has become Musk’s most frequently posted and engaged with policy topic, garnering about 10bn views,” the outlet said. “Musk posted more than 1,300 times about the topic overall, with more than 330 posts in the past 2 months alone.”Bloomberg described Musk – who paid $44bn for X, then Twitter, in 2022 – as the platform’s single most important influencer and has reportedly ordered site engineers to push his posts into users’ feeds. That makes Musk “the most widely read person on the site today”, Bloomberg said. More
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Americans who believe in democracy have no choice but to vote for Harris | Observer editorial
by Evelyn Reynolds 26 October 2024, 18:00
‘It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings” – that well-known if dated American sporting adage – may afford Kamala Harris a little comfort in the final, testing days leading up to the US presidential election on 5 November. The contest is too close to call. That has been the case for weeks, if not months. The latest national poll averages, putting Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, on roughly 48 points each, confirm it. The deadlock extends to the seven most closely fought battleground or swing states.And yet, in recent days, the impression, the feeling, the fear – call it what you will – has been growing that Trump may have the edge. Maybe the Democrats are scaring themselves unnecessarily. Maybe it’s media hype. Maybe it’s true. What is certain is that this nail-biter is going down to the wire. We hope, when it’s over, that there will be plenty to sing about – and that Harris will become the first woman and woman of colour to be elected president of the United States.If Harris pulls it off, it will be a remarkable achievement, a success against the odds. Due to the unexpected implosion of President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign in July, triggered by concerns about his age and mental fitness, her campaign has been unusually short-lived. As vice-president, Harris was best placed to take on the Democratic party’s nomination, and she did so with aplomb. Her national profile rose spectacularly overnight.Yet she was handicapped from the start by the unpopular Biden’s legacy and her inability, or unwillingness, to distance herself from his record. Harris has also struggled with perceptions that she lacks political savvy, is a relative unknown who is vague and uncertain on the issues, and that she failed as vice-president, or so Republicans claim, to curb illegal cross-border migration.A happy knack of connectingThese doubts have not been entirely dispelled in the ensuing three months. Harris comes across as a likable, energetic, trustworthy and inclusive politician. Confounding criticism that she speaks in “word salads”, she bested Trump in their only live TV debate, to the extent he declined a return bout. Harris seems to have the happy knack of connecting on a personal level with people she meets. She radiates joy, humour and humility.Yet Harris is no big-picture stateswoman, no powerfully impressive, slightly off-putting figure like Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016. Nor is she charismatic like Barack Obama. Her national approval ratings are historically low. And that points, in part, to the largely hidden question of how her gender may affect the outcome. Polls show Trump doing better among men, especially white men. Women and minorities lean to Harris, though less so this year. So while it’s evident this election will be no slam dunk, to use another American sports metaphor, it’s equally plain that Harris, if elected, would make a decent, honest, possibly trail-blazing president, a strong ally for Britain, and an unexceptional but reliable leader of the democratic world.None of this may be said of Trump – and this, really, is all that matters at this moment. This is the crux around which the election turns. American voters may think they have a choice. But if they value their democracy, if they value their laws, institutions and constitution, if they value personal liberty, their country’s safety and international peace and security, indeed if they hope ever to vote again, then they really do not. The only choice is Harris.A retribution presidencyAn exaggeration? Not at all. Trump has a plan for a second term that could make his first spell in the Oval Office – when his former chief of staff, John Kelly, says he behaved like a fascist – look normal. Narcissistic Trump says it will be a retribution presidency. For him it’s all about getting even. Yet, if it happens, it will also be about abuse of power on a scale never before seen in America.Just look at what he’s promising: mass deportations of immigrants; the jailing of political opponents and anyone he dislikes; the use of the US military against civilians, loosely defined as “enemies within”; officially approved vigilantism; and the abandoning, again, of the Paris climate agreement.Trump’s stated agenda includes possible, devastating military action to destroy the cities of hostile countries such as Iran; the deserting of US allies such as Britain and Ukraine and the appeasing of Vladimir Putin’s Russia; a likely global trade war involving punitive import tariffs, principally aimed at China; and, overall, utter disregard for America’s treaty obligations, global responsibilities, international law and the UN system.Even if Trump does not do half of what he threatens, victory for him would be a disaster for America and the world – and this time, there will be few if any “adults in the room” to restrain him. His first victim could be US democracy, targeted on 6 January 2021 by his Maga mobsters, and now once again in his sights. Basically, Trump wants to change federal, state and local rules to ensure future elections produce the “right” results.Trump appears only too happy to further subvert the supreme court and the justice department in pursuit of this objective. Abortion rights, a key issue for Harris, will be further eroded if Trump wins, cheered on by conservative Christian evangelicals and Republican-led state legislatures. And human rights in general will suffer, whether they be those of migrants and their families, black men and other minorities, or gay and trans people. Free speech and independent journalism will also be at risk. Trump cannot abide contradiction. He demands sycophancy or silence.The prospect of Trump #2 should make America’s allies tremble. This is the man who kowtowed to Russian, North Korean and Saudi dictators, tore up the landmark Iran nuclear deal, threatened to quit Nato and rowed constantly with Europe’s leaders. Trump encouraged Israel’s hard-right prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to ignore the Palestinians, cut money-making deals with Gulf Arabs and call it peace.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump’s past stupidity and cupidity played a big role in stoking the Middle East crisis, which has escalated with Israel’s latest bombing of Iran. On China, America’s most important global relationship, Trump promises only greater confrontation, especially after last week’s revelations that Chinese hackers targeted him and his weird running mate, JD Vance. On Ukraine, his policy is betrayal and surrender.All this can and must be avoided, yet America’s friends and allies, looking on powerlessly (despite the well-intentioned interventions of some Labour party activists), have no say in heading off disaster. Nor, in effect, do most Americans, because of the anachronistic, scandalously unreformed electoral college system. The Harris-Trump result in at least 40 of the 50 states is a foregone conclusion.Brutal, desperate personal attacksThis election may pivot on choices made by a few thousand people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona. It could be that, as happened to Clinton in 2016, Harris wins the national popular vote but loses the electoral college. Or this wacky system could produce the opposite result. It’s estimated that about 15% of voters remain undecided. That’s more than enough to settle the outcome. It’s still all up for grabs.It’s going to get frantic. It could be terrifying. Expect bread and butter economic issues – food prices, jobs and housing – along with abortion and migration to dominate the final days, not weighty questions of governance, ethics and foreign policy. And expect ever more brutal, desperate personal attacks as each candidate demonises the other.This behaviour comes naturally to Trump. Not so Harris, though that will not stop her doubling down on her justified belief that this unhinged convicted felon, ageing roué, and most divisive, immoral and vindictive of politicians is indeed a fascist who cares only for himself and will sacrifice democracy, liberty and the constitution in an egotistic orgy of self-worship. Harris will doubtless remind voters, too, that Trump is again refusing to promise to accept the result if he loses. Endless, vexatious litigation and furious disputes are a certainty. Violence is a distinct possibility.It’s ironic – but those Americans who truly believe in democracy really have no choice at all on 5 November. The US remains a great country. It has many strengths. It also has many problems. Trump is not the answer. He will only make it worse. Vote Harris! More
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These seven states will decide the election. Here’s what we learned reporting on the ground
by Evelyn Reynolds 26 October 2024, 17:00
Spare a thought for beleaguered Pennsylvanians. During the past few weeks, they have been pummeled with $280m worth of election ads blazing on their TV and computer screens, part of an eye-popping $2.1bn spent so far on the US presidential election.Pennsylvania is one of the seven battleground states that, when it comes to choosing presidents, can seem as revered as the seven wonders of the world. Forget Democratic California, ditch reliably Republican Texas – it is these seven states that, come 5 November, will decide the outcome of one of the most consequential elections in modern times.Their names are seared into the minds of politically aware Americans: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Under America’s arcane electoral system, the occupant of the Oval Office is elected not through the popular vote but by electoral college votes harvested state by state.Among them, the seven states control 93 electoral college votes (Pennsylvania has the largest number, 19, which is why its residents are so bombarded). In the final days, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz, will be scrambling all over them in a bid to reach the magic number: 270 electoral college votes to win.The states are called battlegrounds for a reason – their loyalty cannot be taken for granted by either side. This year, though, their unpredictability has reached dizzying heights. The Guardian’s presidential poll tracker shows five of them essentially tied within a three-point margin of error, with only Arizona (where Trump is up four points) and Wisconsin (where Harris is up five) pulling away. Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ polling expert, has drily noted that the presidential polls are “starting to run out of room to get any closer”.Guardian reporters are on the ground in each of the seven battlegrounds to test these confounding waters.– Ed PilkingtonArizona‘Why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?’View image in fullscreenOn a stiflingly hot afternoon last month, Lynn and Roger Seeley relaxed into an air-conditioned co-working space in a suburb east of Phoenix. They had come to hear the Democratic candidate for US Senate, Ruben Gallego, make his pitch to a roomful of small-business owners. Lifelong Republicans, they might have felt out of place at a Democratic campaign event in the pre-Trump era. But not now.“The Arizona Republican party is not the same Republican party,” said Lynn Seeley, who plans to vote for Kamala Harris in November. “It just doesn’t represent me anymore.”The Seeleys are among a group of disaffected Arizonans known as “McCain Republicans” – moderates and independents who prefer the “maverick” brand of politics of the late Arizona Senator John McCain to Trump’s Maga movement.The Trumpification of the state GOP, as well as rapid population growth, a large number of young Latino voters and a suburban shift away from the Republican party have created an opening for Democrats in recent election cycles, turning once ruby-red Arizona into a desert battleground.View image in fullscreenPolling shows Donald Trump with a narrow edge over Harris in the presidential race. The Senate race, which is critical to the party’s slim hope of maintaining control of the chamber, appears to trend in Gallego’s favor. The state also features two of the most competitive House races in the country, both key to winning the speaker’s gavel. Arizonans are also voting on an initiative to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.Across the sprawling Phoenix region, one of the fastest-growing in America, Trump and Harris signs dot xeriscaped yards. But roughly a third of Arizonans are unaffiliated, and since Trump’s election in 2016 they have broken for Democrats in key statewide races.In 2020, Trump lost the state by fewer than 11,000 votes, the narrowest of any margin. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and before then, it was Harry Truman in 1948.“Arizona is not a blue state,” said Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona. “Arizona has had very high inflation rates, very high increases in the cost of living, and an increase in the cost of gas. It’s a border state during a border crisis. A Republican candidate should be cleaning up in Arizona. So the question is: why isn’t Trump doing a little better here?”Lauren Gambino | Chandler, ArizonaGeorgiaEarly voting hits records – but offers few cluesView image in fullscreenMary Holewinski lives in Carrollton, Georgia, which is home turf for the far-right representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Holewinski is a Kamala Harris supporter and has a sign in her yard. It draws nasty looks, she said: “I’ve lost neighbor friends.”Those tensions are ratcheting up, because the presidential election is already well under way in Georgia. More than 2 million Georgians – a quarter of its electorate – have already gone to the polls, setting early voting records each day.Both Harris and Trump consider Georgia – no longer a stereotypical “deep south” state but one propelled by the economic and cultural clout of Atlanta – a crucial pickup. In 2020, the state went for Joe Biden by 11,780 votes– and Trump has since been charged in an election interference case after calling Georgia’s secretary of state and asking him to “find” those 11,780 votes. A Georgia victory would represent belated validation for the former president.The candidates may as well have leased apartments in Atlanta, for all the time they’re spending here. The difference between a Democrat winning 80% and 90% of their votes could be larger than the overall margin of victory.But Georgia is no longer a state defined by Black and white voters. Asian and Latino population growth has changed the political landscape in suburban Atlanta, which helped drive the Biden victory here in 2020. And the conflict between conventional conservative Republicans and the Maga insurgency may also be determinative: suburban moderates in the Atlanta region turned against Trump in 2020, and he has done little since to win them back.Still, while historically Democrats in Georgia have been more likely to vote early than Republicans, Trump has pointedly instructed his supporters to vote early in person in Georgia, and many appear to be doing just that.“I could care less about whether you like him or not. It’s not a popularity contest,” said Justin Thompson, a retired air force engineer from Macon. “It’s what you got done. And he did get things done before the pandemic hit. And the only reason why he didn’t get re-elected was because the pandemic hit.”George Chidi | Atlanta, GeorgiaMichiganTurnout is key in state where many are angry over GazaView image in fullscreenThe trade union official had much to say, but he wasn’t going to say it in public.The leader of a union branch at a Michigan factory, he was embarrassed to admit that most of its members support Donald Trump – even though he’s also disparaging about what he saw as the Democratic party elite’s failure to put the interests of working people ahead of powerful corporations.“I don’t want to disagree with the members in public because they have their reasons to do what they think is good for protecting their jobs,” he said. “I’ve tried to explain that they’re wrong but they don’t want to hear it.”Like many in Michigan, he found himself torn: despairing of Trump yet not greatly enthused by Harris. A Rust belt state that once prospered from making cars, steel and other industrial products, Michigan lost many jobs to Mexico after the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) by Bill Clinton, an enduring source of resentment against the Democrats for some voters that helped Trump to power.That goes some way to explain why opinion polls continue to have the two candidates neck-and-neck in Michigan, even though the Harris campaign is heavily outspending Trump here and appears to have a better ground game with more volunteers.Turnout will be key: Trump won here by just 10,704 votes in 2016, then lost narrowly to Biden four years later. High on the list of demographic targets are Black voters in Michigan’s largest city, Detroit, whose low turnout in 2016 was a factor in Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the state. Harris is also targeting white suburban women, many of whom previously supported Trump but have cooled on him over abortion rights, his continued false claims of election fraud and his criminal convictions.For all of that, the election in Michigan may be decided by events far away.More than 100,000 Michigan Democrats, many of them from the state’s Arab American community around Detroit, abstained from supporting Biden in the Democratic primaries earlier this year because of his support for Israel’s war in Gaza. So far, Harris has not significantly wavered from Biden on the issue. With polls this close, it could be decisive if Harris loses a fraction of these voters.Chris McGreal | Saginaw, MichiganNevadaIs Harris or Trump better for the working class?View image in fullscreenUrbin Gonzalez could have been working inside, in the air conditioning, at his regular job as a porter on the Las Vegas Strip. Instead, in the final days before the US election, he had chosen to go door-knocking in the 104F (40C) heat.“I don’t care because I’m fighting for my situation,” said Gonzalez, dabbing the sweat from his neck. “All Trump wants to do is cut taxes for his buddies, for his rich friends, not for us. Not for workers … This is personal.”While the US economy broadly bounced back from the pandemic, Nevada has lagged behind. Nearly a quarter of jobs here are in leisure or hospitality, and although the Las Vegas Strip, where Gonzalez works, is back to booming with tourists, unemployment in Nevada remains the highest of any US state, and housing costs have skyrocketed.Both Trump and Harris have promised to turn things around: both have promised to eliminate federal income taxes on workers’ tips, and both have vowed to expand tax credits for parents – though their plans widely differ when it comes to the finer points.Although Nevada has leaned Democratic in every presidential election since 2008, winning candidates have scraped by with slim margins. About 40% of voters don’t identify with either Democrats or Republicans, and although a growing number of Latino voters – who now make up 20% of the electorate – have traditionally backed Democrats, the party’s popularity is slipping.The state, which has just six electoral votes, is notoriously difficult to accurately poll – in large part because the big cities, Reno and Las Vegas, are home to a transient population, many of whom work unpredictable shifts in the state’s 24/7 entertainment and hospitality industries. But many voters remember the days early in the Trump administration when costs were lower. “I think the economy was just better when Trump was president,” said Magaly Rodas, 32, while shopping at her local Latin market. Her husband, an electrician, has struggled to find work since the pandemic, while rent and other expenses have continued to climb. “What have the Democrats done for us in four years?”Maanvi Singh | Las Vegas, NevadaNorth CarolinaA hurricane is a wild card that could depress turnoutView image in fullscreenKim Blevins, 55, knows what it’s like to survive a disaster. She was locked inside her home without power for eight days when Hurricane Helene struck western North Carolina last month.So when she uses the experience as a frame through which to view the impending election, she is not being frivolous. “If Trump doesn’t get in, it’s going to be worse than the hurricane,” she said.“It’ll be world war three. Kamala Harris wants to make us a communist country and we can’t survive that. The illegals coming over the border, the inflation of food and gas prices, we can’t do that.”Hurricane Helene has raised a critical challenge for Donald Trump.It affected a rural mountainous region that is Trump’s natural base – some 23 out of the 25 stricken counties are majority-Maga. So any decline in turnout would most likely hurt him.Trump needs to win North Carolina if he is to have an easy shot at returning to the White House. The state veers Republican, only voting for a Democratic president twice in recent times (Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008). Trump took it in 2020 by just 75,000 votes.Yet Harris has succeeded since she took over the Democratic mantle from Joe Biden in making this race neck-and-neck.In the final stretch, Trump is focusing on getting his base of largely white rural voters to the polls, hurricane be damned. His campaign has been heartened by the first week of early voting, which has smashed all records, with Republicans almost matching Democrats in turnout. (In 2020 and 2016, Republicans lagged behind.)On her side, Harris is waging an intense ground game, with hundreds of staffers fanning out across the state to squeeze out every vote. The thinking is that if Trump can be blocked in North Carolina, he can be stopped from regaining power.For that to happen, Harris has to mobilize her broad tent of support, with special emphasis on women in the suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham. She is also trying to shore up the male African American vote, which has shown some softness.Not least, she is trying to tie Trump to Mark Robinson, the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate. Robinson has described himself as a “Black Nazi”, and has been revealed to have made extreme racist remarks.Ed Pilkington | Creston, North CarolinaPennsylvania‘If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing’View image in fullscreenPennsylvania provided one of the most enduring images of the fraught US election cycle: Donald Trump raising his fist to a crowd of supporters after a gunman attempted to end his life at a campaign rally in July. As Trump left the stage in Butler, Pennsylvania, with blood dripping from his ear, his supporters chanted: “Fight! Fight!”Days later, Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, clearing the way for Kamala Harris to ascend to the Democratic nomination.Both Trump and Harris have returned to Pennsylvania dozens of times since, confirming that the Keystone state could play a definitive role in the presidential race. “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania last month. “It’s very simple.”As the fifth-most-populous US state, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of any of the battlegrounds. Much of the population is clustered around Philadelphia and smaller cities like Pittsburgh and Scranton, where Biden showed strength in 2020, but the more rural regions could play an outsized role in the election. White, blue-collar voters in these rural areas have sharply shifted away from Democrats in recent elections.Some Democrats expected Harris to choose the popular governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate, given his impressive ability to secure consistent victories in such a closely-contested state. Harris instead chose Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor, a decision that could come back to haunt her depending on the results in Pennsylvania.In her bid to sway undecided voters, Harris has walked back some of her most progressive proposals from her 2020 presidential campaign – such as a ban on fracking, a major industry in Pennsylvania, on which she has now reversed her stance.It could all come down to Pennsylvania. Tom Morrissey, a 67-year-old voter from Harleysville attending a Democratic campaign event last month, was optimistic . “We love the enthusiasm. It’s so important at this time,” Morrissey said. “We have to save democracy.”Joan E Greve | Ambler, PennsylvaniaWisconsin‘Let the anxiety wash over you and then refocus’View image in fullscreenWearing matching hats emblazoned with the words “Sauk County Democrats”, Deb and Rod Merritt, a retired couple from southern Wisconsin, joined the crowd to hear Barack Obama stump for Kamala Harris.“We’re so apprehensive that the polls say they’re close,” said Rod Merritt.Sauk county is one of a handful of Wisconsin counties that has flipped from Democrats to Republicans and back. It’s exactly the kind of place – a swing county in a swing state – that the campaigns are fighting over.A midwestern state in the Great Lakes region known for dairy production, manufacturing and healthcare, Wisconsin is considered to be part of the “blue wall” – the states Democrats consistently won in the 1990s and early 2000s.Trade unions historically helped drive voter turnout for Democrats, but a series of anti-labor laws passed under the Republican-controlled state government in 2011 dealt them a blow. Rural areas have increasingly turned to Republican candidates, leaving cities like Milwaukee – Wisconsin’s most racially diverse – and the liberal stronghold of Madison as Democratic bastions.With the economy the top issue, it all comes down to turnout, with Republicans focusing on rural voters and young men, who have increasingly looked to conservative politics.The Democrats, meanwhile, hope the closeness of the race – in which a half-million people have already voted – will mobilize volunteers. “In some ways, the most important thing is learning some breathing exercises so that you can let the anxiety wash through you – and then refocus on knocking on the next door,” said Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic party of Wisconsin.Alice Herman | Madison, Wisconsin More

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These seven states will decide the election. Here’s what we learned reporting on the ground

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