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    First lady signals Joe Biden will seek second presidential term – as it happened

    First lady Jill Biden has given one of the clearest indications yet that Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview today that there’s “pretty much” nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement.Although Biden has long said that it’s his intention to seek reelection, he has yet to make it official, and he’s struggled to dispel questions about whether he’s too old to continue serving as president. Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term.“He says he’s not done,” the first lady said in Nairobi, the second and final stop of her five-day trip to Africa. “He’s not finished what he’s started. And that’s what’s important.”She added: “How many times does he have to say it for you to believe it?”Biden aides have said an announcement is likely to come in April, after the first fundraising quarter ends, which is around the time that Barack Obama officially launched his reelection campaign.First lady Jill Biden made clear she thinks her husband, Joe Biden, will stand for a second term – though we are still waiting for an announcement from the man himself. Otherwise, top American officials spent most of the day restating their support for Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Speaking before the UN security council, secretary of state Antony Blinken warned that anything less than Russia’s full withdrawal from the territory it seized will weaken the global body’s charter, while Biden highlighted the bipartisan nature of Washington’s support for Kyiv. Many Republicans do indeed support Ukraine’s cause – but others in the party argue it is a distraction from more pressing issues. This divide could prove crucial to the course of the war in the months to come.Here’s what else happened today:
    Blinken warned China against getting involved in the conflict by providing Russia with weapons.
    Kamala Harris condemned conservative efforts to block access to medication abortion nationwide.
    The American public is divided over how long to support Kyiv, with more Republicans preferring limits on US aid, and more Democrats in favor of helping them fight against Russia until the job is done.
    The Treasury announced new sanctions against Russian individuals and companies involved in the war effort, but such measures haven’t proven as successful as Washington has hoped.
    It turns out that Democrats in Congress have access to the 40,000 hours of footage Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy gave Tucker Carlson earlier this week.
    The White House has released a photo from earlier today, when Joe Biden marked the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine with its president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of the G7, as America’s top allies are known.The group includes Canada, Germany, the European Union, Japan, Britain, France and Italy:Today, President Biden met with G7 Leaders and President Zelenskyy to continue coordinating our efforts to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its war. pic.twitter.com/JDs4Z3geY4— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 24, 2023
    As Biden inches closer to announcing what is widely expected (most importantly, by his wife) to be his re-election campaign, a poll released earlier this week brought good news for his standing among Democrats.The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll shows an even half of Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents believe the party has a better chance with Biden as the nominee, against 45% who think they’d be better off backing someone else. That’s an improvement for the president from November of last year, when it was roughly flipped: then, 54% wanted someone else, while a mere 38% backed Biden.The survey also had bad news for Donald Trump in his quest to be renominated for the presidency by the GOP. Among Republicans and independents who lean towards the party, 54% believe the GOP is best off with someone other than Trump as the nominee, while 42% thought the ex-president remained the best man for the job.Joe Biden will meet with congressional Democrats next week, Punchbowl News reports.His allies hold the majority in the Senate but lost control of the House following last November’s midterm elections, though only by a handful of seats. Punchbowl reports he will first meet with House Democrats during their annual retreat in Baltimore:Biden will speak to House Dems on Wednesday in Baltimore, @PeteAguilar announces https://t.co/qKpRM94FZe— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) February 24, 2023
    Then with senators:Schumer’s office says Biden will speak at a special Senate Dem caucus lunch next Thursday— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) February 24, 2023
    Earlier this week, Democrats erupted in fury when they found out that Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy handed over to Tucker Carlson 40,000 hours of video footage surveillance and other cameras in the Capitol picked up on January 6.The concern was not only that it could reveal details of the building’s security, but also that Carlson, a conservative firebrand who has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the insurrection before his audience of millions, would use the footage to distort what happened that day.As it turns out, Democratic leaders in Congress have access to that footage as well. Washington Post opinion columnist Greg Sargent confirmed as much from the Capitol police. In his column today, he argues that Democrats should fight fire with fire, and release the footage to news organizations in an attempt to counter whatever Carlson has planned for what he’s been given.Let’s take a quick dip into Trumpworld, where the Guardian’s Hugo Lowell has an exclusive on the ongoing mess that is Donald Trump’s possession of classified materials:Donald Trump’s lawyers found a box of White House schedules, including some that were marked classified, at his Mar-a-Lago resort in December because a junior aide to the former president had transported it from another office in Florida after the FBI completed its search of the property.The former president does not appear to have played a direct role in the mishandling of the box, though he remains under investigation for the possible improper retention of national security documents and obstruction of justice. This previously unreported account of the retrieval was revealed by two sources familiar with the matter.Known internally as ROTUS, short for Receptionist of the United States, the junior aide initially kept the box at a converted guest bungalow at Mar-a-Lago called the “tennis cottage” after Trump left office, and she soon took it with her to a government-leased office in the Palm Beach area.The box remained at the government-leased office from where the junior aide worked through most of 2022, explaining why neither Trump’s lawyer who searched Mar-a-Lago in June for any classified-marked papers nor the FBI agents who searched the property in August found the documents.Around the time that Trump returned to Mar-a-Lago from his Bedminster golf club in New Jersey at the end of the summer, the junior aide was told that she was being relocated to a desk in the anteroom of Trump’s own office at Mar-a-Lago that was previously assigned to top aide Molly Michael.The junior aide retrieved her work belongings – including the box – from the government-leased office and took them to her new Mar-a-Lago workspace around September. At that time, the justice department’s criminal investigation into Trump’s retention of national security documents was intensifying.Several weeks after the junior aide moved into her new workspace, federal prosecutors told Trump’s lawyers in October that they suspected the former president was still in possession of additional documents with classified markings despite the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago on 8 August.Vice president Kamala Harris condemned the “partisan and political attacks” on reproductive rights that have put the fate of medication abortion in the hands of a single, conservative judge in Texas.Convening a White House meeting with reproductive rights advocates and providers on Friday, Harris addressed the pending lawsuit, brought by abortion opponents, that threatens the access to the abortion drug mifepristone.“This is not just an attack on women’s fundamental freedoms. It is an attack on the very foundation of our public health system,” Harris said.Medication abortion now accounts for the majority of abortions in the US. It is also used as a miscarriage treatment. Abortion rights advocates have warned that a decision to reverse a decades-old approval of the drug by the Federal Drug Administration would have “devastating” consequences for women’s reproductive health.Harris said the legal challenge, as well as legislative efforts in Republican-led states that would restrict access to medication abortion, amounted to an attempt by political activists to undermine the FDA’s authority, accusing them of trying to “question the legitimacy of a group of scientists and doctors who have studied the significance of this drug.”The vice president said supporters of the lawsuit should “look in their own medicine cabinets” and question whether they would be willing to do away with any FDA-approved medication that they use to alleviate pain and improve their quality of life. “Mifepristone is no exception to that process,” Harris said.The FDA approved mifepristone, in combination with a second drug, in 2000, deeming it a safe and effective way to terminate a pregnancy up to 10-weeks.During the pandemic, the FDA expanded access to the pills by allowing patients to obtain them by mail through telehealth rather than requiring in-person hospital or clinic visits. The agency further broadened the availability of the medication when it announced in January it would allow certified retail pharmacies to dispense mifepristone, known under the brand name Mifeprex.US District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk has not indicated when he will rule, but advocates are preparing for a possible decision as soon as today.Since the supreme court decision to end the Constitutional right to abortion, Harris has led the administration’s public response.During Friday’s roundtable, she said the participants would discuss ways to ensure Americans are aware of the lawsuit and its possible ramifications as well as what policymakers and providers could to ensure patients “have access to the medication that they need.”Last weekend, Joe Biden clandestinely traveled to Ukraine via a mode of travel he personally prefers, but which is unusual for a modern American president: a passenger train. The Guardian’s Peter Beaumont spoke to the man who made it happen:Alexander Kamyshin, the head of Ukraine’s railway company Ukrzaliznytsia, doesn’t get much sleep at the best of times. On Sunday night, as Joe Biden was being ferried into Ukraine in a 10-hour night journey from Poland – in a carriage now known as “Rail Force One”, he got almost none.Along with others involved in the secret operation to bring the US president to his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kamyshin watched the progress of the train in a command centre.A handsome bearded man sporting a hipster-ish braid of hair that falls over the shaved sides of his head, Kamyshin is deliberately vague about many of the details.But in the past year, his dedicated team has brought in world leaders, VIPs and diplomatic missions on an almost daily basis as part of a programme called “Iron Diplomacy”.Security is everything, he told the Guardian in an interview at Kyiv’s main railway station. “We have not had one leak. There have been no photographs from train attendants. We respect the confidence of the delegations.“It’s not a challenge. It’s our job that we do every day. Imagine,” he says with smile, “the president of the United States coming to a war-torn country by train.‘Rail Force One’: how Ukraine railways got Joe Biden safely to KyivRead moreHere’s a video that’s worth watching of Jill Biden describing her husband’s willingness to continue serving as president for a second term:— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) February 24, 2023
    First lady Jill Biden has long been described as a key figure in US president Joe Biden’s orbit as he plans his future – after today revealing to the Associated Press that he’s close to confirming he’ll seek a second term in the White House..css-cumn2r{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Because I’m his wife,” she laughed, AP writes.But she brushed off the question about whether she has the deciding vote on whether the president runs for reelection..css-cumn2r{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Of course he’ll listen to me, because we’re a married couple,” she said. But, she added later, “he makes up his own mind, believe me.”Biden did the interview in Kenya, during the second leg of her trip to Africa this week. Earlier she was in Namibia.First lady Jill Biden has given one of the clearest indications yet that Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview today that there’s “pretty much” nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement.Although Biden has long said that it’s his intention to seek reelection, he has yet to make it official, and he’s struggled to dispel questions about whether he’s too old to continue serving as president. Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term.“He says he’s not done,” the first lady said in Nairobi, the second and final stop of her five-day trip to Africa. “He’s not finished what he’s started. And that’s what’s important.”She added: “How many times does he have to say it for you to believe it?”Biden aides have said an announcement is likely to come in April, after the first fundraising quarter ends, which is around the time that Barack Obama officially launched his reelection campaign.Top US officials have restated their support for Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Speaking before the UN security council, secretary of state Antony Blinken warned that anything less than Russia’s full withdrawal from territory it seized will weaken the global body’s charter, while Joe Biden highlighted the bipartisan nature of Washington’s support for Kyiv. And indeed, many Republicans support Ukraine’s cause – but others in the party argue it is a distraction from more pressing issues. This divide could prove crucial to the outcome of the war in the months to come.Here’s what else has happened today so far:
    Blinken warned China against getting involved in the conflict by providing Russia with weapons.
    The American public is divided over how long to support Kyiv, with more Republicans preferring limits on US aid, and more Democrats in favor of helping them fight against Russia until the job is done.
    The Treasury announced new sanctions against Russian individuals and companies involved in the war effort, but such measures haven’t proven as successful as Washington has hoped.
    But the bipartisan comity over Ukraine has its limits. There’s been a definite increase over the past year in the number of lawmakers who have questioned Washington’s support to Ukraine, particularly among Republicans.Their argument is that Joe Biden cares more about Ukraine than various issues at home, especially those they’ve turned into cudgels against the administration such as border security, or the recent derailment of a train carrying toxic chemicals in East Palestine, Ohio.This tweet from GOP senator Josh Hawley captures the dynamic well:The Republican Party can be the party of Ukraine and globalists or the party of East Palestine and working Americans. Not both— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) February 24, 2023
    But it’s in the House where some of Ukraine’s biggest congressional foes can be found. “We can’t care more about Ukraine than we do our own country. President Biden has failed to lead on the train derailment, the border, inflation, crime, and so much more,” House Republican Jake LaTurner said in a statement released today.“The White House continues to prioritize Ukraine while leaving American communities behind. It’s unacceptable.”And while the Senate’s top Republican Mitch McConnell issued a statement of strong support for Ukraine today, his counterpart in the House, speaker Kevin McCarthy, has made no public statement that this blog is aware of.Back in Washington, Mitt Romney was one of several Republican lawmakers who tweeted strong statements of support for Ukraine on the war’s one-year anniversary – which caught the eye of Democratic president Joe Biden.Biden has been eager to play up the bipartisan nature of US support for Ukraine. Here’s what Romney, who represents Utah in the Senate and was the GOP’s nominee for president in 2012, had to say:It is in America’s interest to support Ukraine. If Russia can invade, subjugate, and pillage Ukraine with impunity, it will do the same again to others, and a world at war diminishes the security of Americans.— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) February 23, 2023
    And here is Biden’s response:I think Senator Romney would be the first to tell you that we don’t always agree.But he knows what I know: that standing with Ukraine — and standing up for freedom — advances our national security. https://t.co/X67SkDIL6W— President Biden (@POTUS) February 24, 2023 More

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    Why are Republicans using Biden’s Kyiv trip against him? Politics Weekly America – podcast

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    This week marks one year since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and for the first time since the war began, Joe Biden landed in Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian president, Volodymr Zelenskiy, in what some are calling one of the most important trips by a US president since the end of the cold war.
    This week, Joan E Greve speaks to Susan Glasser of the New Yorker about the significance of Biden’s trip to Europe and why Republicans at home are criticising him for it

    How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know

    Archive: CBS, Fox, CNN, ITV Watch the new Guardian documentary The year that never ended, about an unlikely and enduring friendship in Lukashivka Listen to Today in Focus and Politics Weekly UK’s coverage of the anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine Send your questions and feedback to podcasts@theguardian.com. Help support the Guardian by going to theguardian.com/supportpodcasts. More

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    Biden pledges more Moscow sanctions: ‘Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia’ – as it happened

    Speaking before a crowd of thousands in the gardens of Warsaw’s Royal Castle, Joe Biden hailed the resilience of Ukraine’s people and the benevolence of Poland and other western allies in helping fend off the Russian invasion.“Autocrats only understand one word: no.” Biden said. “No, you will not take my country. No, you will not take my freedom. No, you will not take my future. I’ll repeat tonight what I said last year at the same place. A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people’s love of liberties. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, never.”He then condemned Russian president Vladimir Putin for the invasion, which began on 24 February of last year.“This war is never a necessity. It’s a tragedy. President Putin chose this war. Every day the war continues is his choice. He could end the war with a word. It’s simple. Russia stops invading Ukraine, it would end the war. If Ukraine stopped defending itself against Russia, it would be the end of Ukraine. That’s why together, we’re making sure Ukraine can defend itself,” Biden said.That’s it for our US politics live blog. Here’s what happened today:
    A special grand jury investigating election interference led by Donald Trump in Georgia has recommended several indictments for a number of people, reported the New York Times. Most of the information on the charges and the people indicted are sealed.
    Joe Biden gave a speech this afternoon in Warsaw, Poland, where he vowed the United States and its allies “will not tire” in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
    Barbara Lee joined the race for California’s Senate seat, the third progressive Democratic House vying to replace Dianne Feinstein.
    The supreme court heard a case that could have a major impact on online speech.
    Thank you for reading! Join us back tomorrow for more politics updates.Follow our international coverage of Biden’s speech and other developments in Ukraine here.Putin thought enemies would ‘roll over’ but he was wrong, says Joe Biden in major speech in Poland – as it happenedRead moreHere’s more on Biden’s recent speech in Poland about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, from the Guardian’s Julian Borger:.css-cumn2r{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Joe Biden has claimed Vladimir Putin’s year of war against Ukraine has left behind “burned-out tanks and Russian forces in disarray” but he also warned of “very bitter days” ahead in the defence of democracy in eastern Europe.
    Biden issued a rallying cry in a speech to mark the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion, addressing a crowd of 30,000, mostly Poles and Ukrainians, in front of the arches below Warsaw’s royal castleon Tuesday evening.
    He was speaking after Putin had delivered a speech of his own, in which he blamed the west for the war and announced the withdrawal of Russian participation in the 2010 New Start treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia.
    Joe Biden has claimed Vladimir Putin’s year of war against Ukraine has left behind “burned-out tanks and Russian forces in disarray” but he also warned of “very bitter days” ahead in the defence of democracy in eastern Europe.
    Biden issued a rallying cry in a speech to mark the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion, addressing a crowd of 30,000, mostly Poles and Ukrainians, in front of the arches below Warsaw’s royal castleon Tuesday evening.
    He was speaking after Putin had delivered a speech of his own, in which he blamed the west for the war and announced the withdrawal of Russian participation in the 2010 New Start treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia.
    Biden did not respond to the announcement or mention Putin’s speech in his own address. The White House was adamant the Russian leader had changed the date of his speech to coincide with Biden’s trip to eastern Europe. However, the US president did ridicule Putin for the failure of his ambitions to conquer Ukraine in a few days last February.Read the full article here.Joe Biden says Russian forces in disarray after year of war in UkraineRead moreTrump has labeled Fox News a “RINO” (Republican Only in Name) network, criticizing the news station over its coverage of Florida governor Ron DeSantis.On Tuesday, Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to rip into Fox over their coverage of a DeSantis rally, writing: “So interesting to watch FoxNews cover the small and unenthusiastic 139 person crowd in Staten Island for DeSantis, but stay as far away as possible from coverage of the thousands of people, many unable to get in, at the Club 47 event in West Palm Beach, Florida.”Trump continued, writing: “I call FoxNews the RINO Network, and their DOWN BIG Ratings accurately reflect the name. If FAKE NEWS CNN was smart, which they’re not, they’d go Conservative & “All Trump, All the Time,” like in 2016, and become a Ratings Juggernaut…”The recent attacks on Fox from Trump follow as Fox continue to spotlight DeSantis, who is expected to run for president in 2024.A special grand jury investigating election interference led by Donald Trump in Georgia has recommended several indictments for a number of people, reported the New York Times.The jury’s foreman Emily Kohrs announced the indictments during an interview today, but noted that most of them remain sealed.When asked if the list of indictments included Trump, Kohrs replied: “You’re not going to be shocked. It’s not rocket science,” adding, “you won’t be too surprised.”New York representative George Santos admitted he was a “terrible liar” about his education and job history while giving an interview to UK television personality Piers Morgan.During the 40-minute TalkTV interview, Santos admitted that he lied about his educational and professional background, but that other aspects of his background were truthful, including that his parents survived the Holocaust.Santos said: “I’ve been a terrible liar on those subjects…It wasn’t about tricking the people. This was about getting accepted by the party here locally.”Santos contributed his lies to expectations he faced within society and in the party.Read the full Politico article here.International reactions to Biden’s speech in Warsaw, Poland are pouring in, as the president pledges to continue supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.Follow our international coverage of the speech and other developments in Ukraine here.Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin thought enemies would ‘roll over’ but he was wrong, says Joe Biden in major speech in PolandRead moreRhode Island representative David Cicilline will retire from office at the end of June, his office announced on Tuesday.Cicilline’s statement read:.css-cumn2r{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Serving the people of Rhode Island’s First Congressional District has been the honor of my lifetime…As President and CEO of one of the largest and oldest community foundations in the nation, I look forward to expanding on the work I have led for nearly thirty years in helping to improve the lives of all Rhode Islanders.Read the full article from the Hill here.Joe Biden just concluded a speech before a crowd of thousands in Warsaw, Poland, where he vowed the United States and its allies “will not tire” in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. The day before, the president had personally pledged more American assistance to president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a quick and secretive visit to Kyiv. But it wasn’t good enough for several Republicans, who said Biden would be better off visiting the border with Mexico, or perhaps the site of a recent train derailment and toxic material spill in Ohio.Here’s what else has happened today so far:
    Barbara Lee joined the race for California’s Senate seat, becoming the third progressive Democratic House representative seeking to replace Dianne Feinstein.
    The supreme court heard a case that could have a major impact on online speech.
    Beer magnates are playing a surprising role in the high-stakes race for an open Wisconsin supreme court seat.
    Follow the Guardian’s live politics blog for the rest of the day’s news, which is now being helmed by Gloria Oladipo.Joe Biden’s address on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was about one thing: solidarity.Solidarity with both Ukraine and with Poland, the Western ally who shares a border with a country Moscow desperately wants complete control over. Beyond that, it was about solidarity among Nato members, who have banded together to stop that from happening – even if their cooperation can occasionally grow fraught.Her is the core of Biden’s just-concluded speech, where the focus on solidarity becomes clear:.css-cumn2r{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}One year into this war, Putin no longer doubts the strength of our coalition, but he still doubts our conviction. He doubts our staying power, he doubts our continued support for Ukraine, he doubts whether Nato can remain unified. But there should be no doubt. Our support for Ukraine will not waver. Nato will not be divided, and we will not tire. President Putin’s craven lust for land and power will fail. And the Ukrainian people’s love for their country will prevail. Democracies in the world will stand guard over freedom today, tomorrow and forever.The United States plans to further tighten sanctions against Russia as punishment for its ongoing war in Ukraine, Joe Biden said.“We continue to maintain the largest sanction regime ever imposed in any country in history, and we’re going to announce more sanctions this week together with our partners,” Biden said. “We’ll hold accountable those who are responsible for this war and will seek justice for the war crimes and crimes against humanity continuing to be committed by the Russians.”Last week at the annual Munich Security Conference, Kamala Harris said the Biden administration has determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine. More

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    Joe Biden’s train ride to Kyiv makes history but will it win him a second term?

    02:09AnalysisJoe Biden’s train ride to Kyiv makes history but will it win him a second term?Julian Borger in WarsawVisit to Ukraine is a defining moment for the US president but foreign policy does not necessarily win elections

    Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates
    John F Kennedy and Ronald Reagan had their speeches in Berlin. Joe Biden now has Kyiv, a moment to define his presidency and its era.There was no one phrase in Biden’s remarks in Kyiv to match Kennedy’s “Ich bin ein Berliner” in 1963 or Reagan’s “Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall” in 1987, but the trip itself was the statement. As the White House underlined repeatedly on Monday, there was no precedent in modern times. Visits to the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq were different, as the US military ran security in those countries.In going to Kyiv, Biden was entering a war zone and putting his safety in the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces, and also those of the Russians. Moscow was given a heads-up a few hours before he crossed the border. The calculation was that Vladimir Putin would not risk the precedent of presidential assassination or all-out war for that matter. A reasonable calculation but a risk nonetheless.It was a coup heightened by complete surprise. The secret did not leak, signalling that the bravery was underpinned by competence. The visit cemented Biden’s claim of leadership of the free world, but among Washington’s allies that has not really been challenged since the full invasion of Ukraine began a year ago this week.A tougher question to answer – and it may take a week or two before the result is clear – is whether this will help Biden’s standing at home, where his popularity has not recovered from the hit it suffered from the shambolic Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation and the energy price shock of the invasion.The popularity slump, which began in August 2021, has not so far been reversed by recent strong economic figures, a solid legislative record, and a lively, combative performance in his State of the Union address earlier this month.In an average of recent polls, Americans who disapprove of his performance outnumber those who approve by 52% to 42%.Much of the problem is an overall impression that Biden at 80 is too old, too doddery and gaffe prone to lead the country with vigour, especially into a second term. The bold appearance in Kyiv, strolling through the city in aviator sunglasses, alongside a grateful and admiring Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on the US Presidents Day holiday no less, is intended to address that perception head on and reframe the conversation on age and fitness for office.Donald Trump was notably risk averse as president. On his single visits to Afghanistan and Iraq, he stayed inside heavily fortified US bases. The Kyiv visit, with its very real jeopardy, makes it less likely that Biden’s Republican challenger in 2024, whether it is Trump or the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, or another, will challenge him directly on courage. But the Republicans are already pivoting to portraying the president’s starring role abroad as an abandonment of suffering Americans at home.“I and many Americans are thinking to ourselves: OK, he’s very concerned about those borders halfway around the world. He’s not done anything to secure our own borders here … we have a lot of problems accumulating here,” DeSantis told Fox TV.The very success of the Biden visit in underlining the US’s commitment to Ukrainian resistance could end up accelerating the drift of the Republicans towards anti-Ukrainian positions, now the preserve of a pro-Trump minority on the far right of the party, as the leadership looks for attack lines against Biden.In his Fox interview, DeSantis downplayed the Russian threat. “I think it’s important to point out, the fear of Russia going into Nato countries and all that, and steamrolling, that has not even come close to happening,” he said, sketching out what may become the Republican line in 2024.The conventional wisdom, reinforced by decades of polling, is that foreign policy does not tend to sway presidential elections. What Kennedy and Reagan’s famous Berlin speeches would have done for them electorally is unknown. Kennedy was killed before he could stand for a second term, and Reagan had already been re-elected and was in his penultimate year in office.For Biden, the jury is out. The train ride to Kyiv will go down in history, but making history does not necessarily win elections.TopicsJoe BidenUS politicsUkraineBiden administrationEuropeUS foreign policyanalysisReuse this content More

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    Beware: we could be entering a dangerous new era of US-China relations | Christopher S Chivvis

    Beware: we could be entering a dangerous new era of US-China relationsChristopher S ChivvisIncidents like the Chinese spying balloon could too easily spiral out of control in the future, ending in disaster Much uncertainty still surrounds China’s balloon spying program and the other mysterious objects that have now been identified over North American airspace. One thing seems certain, however: incidents like these could too easily spiral out of control in the future, ending in disaster. Unless something is done, dangerous waters lie ahead. Unfortunately, both sides are reluctant to do what’s needed.Biden waited long to address the mysterious flying objects. Now we know why | Margaret SullivanRead moreLet’s make no bones about it. It would be better if China didn’t spy on the United States. Any US leader would be hard pressed not to shoot down a Chinese object that the American public has seen flying over US sovereign airspace – as President Biden decided to do on 4 February. But the reality is that events like this will be more and more likely in the next decade as the United States and China bump up against each other globally. The risk of clashes in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have preoccupied military experts for years, but the balloon incident shows they could happen almost anywhere.Unlike the cloak and dagger spying of an earlier age, modern intelligence collection is multi-domain, persistent and global – at least when it comes to the great powers – and everyone is racing to build up their capabilities in new areas like cyber and space, even as they deploy human spies to go after each other’s most precious national secrets. China has been growing not only its military capabilities, but also its intelligence collection platforms. Meanwhile, the US continues to grow its own capabilities. Take just one data point: US reconnaissance flights along Chinese borders are now flying multiple times a day.This makes for a much more crowded military and intelligence operating environment, an increasingly dense jungle where the United States and China are likely to run into each other again and again in the future. When they do, there will be a serious risk of an accident or miscalculation that leads to inadvertent escalation – or even outright war.Inadvertent escalation happens when one nation’s mistake accidentally frightens another into an attack. A pilot could go off course, a government’s internal bureaucratic process might break down, satellites or aircraft could collide, sensors or other equipment could malfunction – to name just a few possibilities. It can also happen if our leaders misjudge how important some piece of military or intelligence equipment is to the other side, target it and mistakenly unleash all holy hell.This time, the damage seems to have been contained. This was in large part because the United States judged the threat to be low early on. But the story might have been different if US leaders had thought otherwise or if they had not been able to figure out whether or not the balloon was a threat in the first place. Containing crises in the future will be much harder if lives are lost or sensitive military and intelligence systems are damaged.During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union developed ways of reducing the risk of inadvertent escalation. Through experience, diplomacy and communication, Moscow and Washington came to understand each other’s boundaries – where, and where not, to step in the jungle. Rules of the road for certain military and intelligence activities emerged. Both sides may have broken the rules sometimes, but they were at least aware of them and this reduced the risk they would go to war by mistake. Washington and Moscow also set up military to military hotlines so that when accidents happened, they could communicate quickly and stop an escalating crisis from spiraling out of control.Of course China’s balloon was spying. States all spy on each other – and we all benefit | Jonathan SteeleRead moreSome analogous arrangements between China and the United States do exist today to prevent potential clashes at sea or in the air from inadvertent escalation. But these arrangements haven’t been working well – a problem recognized among many experts, including some in the White House. A significant part of the blame here falls on Chinese shoulders. Beijing often doesn’t follow the agreed rules and has been reluctant to use the military-military hotlines designed for emergency communication in a crisis. Last week, they refused to use the established hotline on the grounds that this was a civilian incident, even though the balloon was controlled by the Chinese military.But it doesn’t help the situation that the US Congress has been priming for a fight. Condemning China seems to be a rare bipartisan sport these days in Washington. Beijing has brought much of this hostility on itself through its bombastic nationalist turn under President Xi, but Washington’s pugnacious mood makes it all the more likely that US leaders will overreact when the next crisis hits – especially if they misunderstand what’s really going on in Beijing because diplomacy has broken down.Washington’s fighting mood also makes it harder to communicate US red lines and strategic boundaries ahead of time. But this is exactly what’s needed in order to establish the rules of the road that will help avoid future collisions. Getting China to engage constructively on these issues may require a more flexible US approach, including a willingness to talk not just about the security problems that worry the United States, but also the issues that most worry China.A serious diplomatic effort to build these ties could eventually go well beyond crisis management to encompass a broader transparency agenda, information exchanges, verification, safety, arms control and other measures. In the coming years, both sides are certain to seek advantages through intelligence collection, military posturing and other moves, but each side also has a vital interest in preventing an unintended spiral of escalation that could end in catastrophe. Hopefully, this episode can serve as a reminder of the work that lies ahead and how much we stand to lose if we fail to do it.
    Christopher S Chivvis is the director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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    How big a threat does the hard right pose to US support for Ukraine?

    AnalysisHow big a threat does the hard right pose to US support for Ukraine?Julian Borger in WashingtonA year after the conflict began, the consensus against Russian aggression has held but alarm bells are ringing in Congress Vladimir Putin has proven adept at exploiting the US political divide, so the solid bipartisan consensus behind arming Ukraine over the past year may well have come as a surprise to him. The question one year into the war is: how long can that consensus last?Two weeks before the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion on 24 February, a group of Trump-supporting Republicans led by Matt Gaetz introduced a “Ukraine fatigue” resolution that, if passed, would “express through the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States must end its military and financial aid to Ukraine, and urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement”.The resolution is sponsored by 11 Republican members of Congress on the far right Freedom Caucus faction, and is highly unlikely to pass. But it marks a shot across the bows of the leadership, which has mostly vowed to stay the course in supporting Ukraine.Justifying the resolution, Gaetz pointed to the risks of escalation of the Ukraine war into a wider global conflict and to the economic cost to the US.“President Joe Biden must have forgotten his prediction from March 2022, suggesting that arming Ukraine with military equipment will escalate the conflict to ‘World War III’,” the Florida Republican said. “America is in a state of managed decline, and it will exacerbate if we continue to haemorrhage taxpayer dollars toward a foreign war.”The influence of this faction is heightened by the fact that the Republicans have a slim nine-seat majority in the House, and the new speaker, Kevin McCarthy, only scraped into the job after 15 rounds of voting among Republican members, during which he gave promises to listen to the concerns of hard-right holdouts like Gaetz.“I’ve been sounding the alarms on Republican opposition to Ukraine aid for the last 12 months,” the Democratic senator Chris Murphy said. “Right now, there are enough Republicans in the Senate who support Ukraine aid along with all of the Democrats, so we can continue to deliver support, but I don’t know what’s going to happen in the House.”“I think there’s going to be tremendous pressure on Speaker McCarthy to abandon Ukraine … and it’s possible he could wilt under the pressure,” Murphy said. “We know the Russians see this as a real opportunity.”European diplomats have been lobbying Republicans, underlining the importance of maintaining western solidarity in the face of Russian aggression and arguing that support for Ukraine is an extremely inexpensive way to degrade the military of a hostile power seen by the Pentagon as an “acute threat”.The diplomats report reassuring noises from the party leadership, but unwavering resistance from the rightwingers, many of whom follow the lead of the Trump camp, particularly the former president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, who has railed against western backing for Ukraine, and ridiculed its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.“The divide in the US is now more tangible than in Europe. The Republican leadership is absolutely adamant that there will be no lessening of support for Ukraine, but it’s just words,” one European diplomat said. “With such a narrow Republican majority in the House, the Freedom Caucus has a lot of influence. And you don’t need to cut off help overnight. You just need to slow it down with procedure. That’s the danger.”Some of Washington’s European allies are less concerned. One noted how upbeat McCarthy was on the issue, and the commitment to Ukraine of the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell.Frank Luntz, a Republican political consultant, also argued the pro-Russian lobby in the party had been permanently diminished.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Trump used to call Putin a genius. You don’t hear him saying that anymore,” Luntz said. “Most of these people have backed down because they realise they were completely wrong. Donald Trump blew it in Ukraine and there are people who hold it against him to this day.”“You have a few dozen members who are hostile now and that will increase, and could even double. But I don’t expect our support for Ukraine to ebb,” he added.However, a recent opinion poll has shown support softening for the continued arming of Ukraine as the war approached its one-year milestone. In the survey by the Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center, 48% of those questioned said they were in favour of providing weapons, with 29% opposed. Last May, 60% of Americans surveyed supported arming Ukraine.It is against that backdrop that Biden will fly to Poland on Monday to mark the approach of the anniversary and to restate the case for western solidarity with Ukraine.Murphy predicted that the House speaker, who has himself warned that there would no longer be a “blank cheque” for Ukraine with a Republican majority, might seek a compromise with the right of the party that could eventually prove devastating.“I worry that McCarthy will try to split the baby and support funding for hard military infrastructure but not support economic and humanitarian aid,” the Democratic senator said. “If that’s the direction that US funding goes, it’s a recipe for the slow death of Ukraine.”TopicsUS politicsA year of war in UkraineUkraineEuropeUS foreign policyRepublicansfeaturesReuse this content More

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    Spy balloons, UFOs and a standoff with China: Politics Weekly America | podcast

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    This week, Jonathan Freedland and Julian Borger look into why a story about spy balloons launched by China quickly led to the White House having to deny the existence of aliens, and how communication on this could further deepen the wedge between the US and China

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    Competitor or adversary? The west struggles to define its relationship with Beijing

    Competitor or adversary? The west struggles to define its relationship with BeijingChina, the US’s most vital trade partner and its main long-term competitor, presents the country with a sticky ‘pacing challenge’ If you want to solve a problem, it helps to be able to define it, but when it comes to a problem like China, western leaders have been struggling to find the right words.Liz Truss sought to designate China as a “threat” to Britain, but did not stay prime minister long enough for that to become established policy. Her successor, Rishi Sunak, has opted for the less combative “systemic challenge” but he is under pressure from backbench MPs to follow Truss’s path and call Beijing a “strategic threat”.Sunak has made clear he does not want the UK to be out of step with its allies on the issue, most importantly the US. In Washington, meanwhile, China designation is a delicate and evolving art.China ‘spy balloon’ wakes up world to new era of war at edge of spaceRead moreThe delicacy was apparent when a Chinese balloon sailed over the continental US earlier this month. The US declared the high-altitude airship and its payload to be designed for spying and shot it down once it was safely over the Atlantic. The secretary of state, Antony Blinken, cancelled a long-planned trip to Beijing to address bilateral tensions, but at the same time stressed that channels of communication would be kept open and that the US remained keen on a meeting when conditions allowed. Blinken may meet his counterpart, Wang Yi, as soon as this week, at the Munich security conference.The theme of US-China policy towards the end of the Trump administration was an all-encompassing decoupling, in which China was presented in mostly adversarial terms. Joe Biden has preferred to talk about “stiff competition”. His administration’s national defence strategy paper deemed Russia to be an “acute threat” while China was portrayed as the US’s only long-term “competitor”. In recent weeks, the official catchphrase for Beijing has been the slightly nebulous “pacing challenge”, suggesting the US is the world’s constant frontrunner with China ever closer to its shoulder.The problem with categorising China is that there are multiple aspects to its global role as it expands its presence on the world stage. For that reason, Democratic senator Chris Murphy has warned against digging up old cold war rhetoric.“You can’t use the terminology that we used for our conflict with the Soviet Union for our conflict with China,” Murphy told Foreign Policy. “It is apples and oranges. We had virtually no trade relationship with the Soviet Union. Our most vital trade relationship is with China. So I do worry about a bunch of Cold Warriors and Cold War enthusiasts thinking that you can run a competition with China like you ran a competition with the Soviet Union. It’s not the same thing.”With this in mind, Blinken has adopted a Swiss army penknife multi-tooled approach that is “competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be and adversarial when it must be.”Washington is acutely aware that it has been complacent in its competition with China for global clout, having assumed that better US technology and its democratic model would win the day, only to find that African countries and other parts of the global south were sitting on their hands when the US called for support in the UN general assembly. Last year an old Pacific ally, Solomon Islands, signed a security pact with Beijing, denying entry to a US Coast Guard cutter not long after.The Biden administration now plans to beef up its diplomatic presence in the Pacific, reopening some shuttered missions. It has set up a “China house” in the state department to coordinate analysis and help counter China’s message around the world. On Wednesday, the deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, summed up the new US approach as Washington takes on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the contest for hearts and minds in emerging economies.“It is not to say that the PRC can’t invest or that you should toss them out,” Sherman said at the Brookings Institution. Instead, she said the message will be: “Have your eyes wide open”.“Understand what you’re getting, understand what rules apply, what the norms are. Give us a chance, see what we have to offer. Let us compete and help you develop as a country in the ways that you choose,” Sherman said.As for collaboration with China, she said there was little choice other than to work with Beijing to address the climate emergency.“There is no doubt that we cannot meet the climate challenge without engagement with the PRC,” Sherman said. “It’s just not possible because we are both such large emitters and historic emitters.”At the same time, there are plenty of fields in which the US and China are adversaries. The balloon affair has just added another layer to a constant, escalating intelligence struggle between the two powers, in which Beijing has scored some remarkable successes in recent years, stealing designs for the F-35 fighter jet for example. Chinese hackers also stole the personal details of 22 million federal workers – current, former and prospective.Fears of China’s technological capabilities led Biden to introduce draconian export restrictions on semiconductors in October of last year, in an effort to strangle China’s microchip sector. It came close to an economic declaration of war, but Republicans in Congress are still trying to depict him as “soft on China”, calling on him to ban the TikTok app as a threat to national security. Some red states are considering bans on Chinese nationals buying land.It is in the military arena of course where the stakes are the highest and the risks of a competitive relationship becoming adversarial are greatest. Last week, the Pentagon informed Congress that China now had more missile silos than the US. It was an eye-catching claim, though most of the silos are empty and the US retains a substantial superiority in submarine and airborne launchers. China is estimated by the Federation of American Scientists to have 350 nuclear warheads. Even if that number tripled, as the Pentagon predicts it will, it will still be less than a fifth of the US stockpile.China’s long-term threat will depend ultimately on whether it is developing its military clout simply to deter or to attack, across the Taiwan Strait in particular. At the end of January, the head of US Air Mobility Command, Gen Mike Minihan, told other officers that his “gut” told him the US and China would be at war by 2025. It was an estimate quickly disowned by the rest of the Pentagon leadership, who shied away from such expressions of inevitability.US officials say that Xi Jinping is watching Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine with concern and maybe recalibrating his options. Opinions differ within the administration on how seriously Xi takes his pledge to reunite China, another reason it has wavered over the right terminology.There is agreement for now however that repeatedly deeming China to be a threat risks making matters worse, shaping policy in such a way that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.TopicsChinaUS foreign policyBiden administrationUS politicsAsia PacificXi JinpingfeaturesReuse this content More