US midterm elections 2022

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      US voters hit hardest by climate crisis: ‘I need politicians to care about this’

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      US voters hit hardest by climate crisis: ‘I need politicians to care about this’The devastating effects of climate change are motivating how voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections Across the US, temperature records tumbled in a summer of heatwaves, enormous floods drowned entire towns and, in the west, an ongoing drought is now so severe that corpses are being uncovered in rapidly drying reservoirs.Despite these increasingly ominous signs, the climate crisis has struggled to gain much visibility in the lead-up to next week’s midterm elections. “Many voters are more focused on things like inflation, understandably, because people are struggling to get by in this economy,” said Geoffrey Henderson, an expert in climate policy at Duke University.Republican candidates on climate: ‘fake science’ to ‘carbon is healthy’Read moreBut, Henderson added, this will still be a “very high-stakes election for climate change”, with probable Republican control of at least one chamber of Congress likely to result in the gumming up of Joe Biden’s climate agenda. While the president managed to get a huge climate bill passed in the summer, any further legislation or even moves to implement the Inflation Reduction Act, will face obstruction. We spoke to six voters to ask what the climate crisis means for them ahead of the midterms.Wendy Johnson, Phoenix, ArizonaJohnson, 62, is the executive director of the Justa Center – a non-profit organization supporting homeless seniors in Phoenix, America’s hottest city, where it’s getting hotter, drier and deadlier. Returning to live in her home town five years ago after several decades, it’s become clear to Johnson that the climate crisis is hitting Phoenix hard, yet still isn’t a top priority for most voters or elected officials.“It’s obviously hotter in Phoenix than in the 1980s, but there are still too many people who deny climate change and keep voting for their pocketbooks. I see the effects everywhere: at work, elderly homeless people have come in with first and second degree burns from the asphalt or cement which is 30 degrees hotter than the just bearable 105F ambient temperature,” she said.She also described helping elderly people with dehydration, young kids collapsing while playing football or at band practice, and electricity bills doubling. “Climate change is everywhere but it’s still a peripheral issue for most people in the midterm elections.”Inflation hit 13% in Phoenix earlier this year – a record for any US city according to data going back 20 years – exacerbating the climate and homelessness crises driving heat deaths which have almost doubled since 2019.Johnson, who describes herself as a conservative Democrat, has looked into the climate credentials of all the candidates including the down-ticket races, which include the unintended consequences of some seemingly progressive climate pledges, like the displacement of families by a proposed light rail service. But Johnson fears that she’s in the minority.“Election deniers are the same people who still deny climate change, and if we can’t move them despite the proven facts, then for many election integrity is the most important thing.”Alyssa Quintyne, Fairbanks, AlaskaQuintyne is a community organiser in Fairbanks, a city with some of the worst air pollution in the country. This summer, as a record number of blazes enveloped the state after a record-breaking dry spell in the Fairbanks region, Quintyne said she had to really grapple with the meaning of climate crisis. The air had always been bad in her town due to wood-burning stoves and wildfires, but this year was unprecedented. “Things get worse and worse, year after year. And it can happen subtly until it catches you off guard.”Quintyne, 28, has a heart condition that has been linked to air pollution, as well as respiratory issues. “It’s ridiculous that climate change has become such a partisan issue, when really, this is really about are you able to breathe,” she said.In recent years, Quintyne has also seen severe winter storms damage her home and the homes of neighbors and family members; she has seen friends who don’t have the same health issues she does struggle with breathing difficulties as heatwaves and wildfire, fueled by global heating, exacerbate pollution.Of the independent and Democratic candidates for governor, Quintyne said she was still deciding who will strike the right balance between helping uplift and transition the state’s economy – which remains heavily dependent on oil and gas extraction – and prioritizing environmental justice. “I’m still teetering,” she said. “I’m still asking questions.”But above all, in a state that until recently has elected mostly conservative and moderate politicians, she’s looking for candidates who are open to working with environmental activists. “Having a candidate that is at least listening to you to understand where you are coming from, that’s incredibly important,” she said.Edith Tapia, El Paso, TexasLiving in the border city of El Paso, Tapia has noticed several environmental changes in recent years: the change of seasons has felt delayed and unpredictable, and the warmer weather has felt more prominent. Then, there’s the storms. “Every couple of years, [there are] these big snowstorms – or freezes – that shut everything down,” Tapia said. Because El Paso is on a separate electrical grid from the rest of Texas, the city was largely spared power outages during the freeze of 2021. “But Juárez [wasn’t],” said Tapia, referring to the Mexican city across the border from El Paso.Tapia works on both sides of the US-Mexico border as a technical adviser for a humanitarian organization, and saw up close what a freeze can do. Colleagues in Juárez were left without water or gas for multiple days. Additionally, she’s seen power outages in El Paso during extremely hot summer months. Despite the prevalence of environmental and climate issues facing the border region, and Texas more broadly, Tapia hasn’t seen any candidates campaigning on taking bolder climate action. “No candidate, at least that I’ve heard [of], is using this information as a major selling point,” said Tapia.In 2020, a mayoral candidate ran on the issue of fighting climate change in El Paso. “I thought she was excellent,” said Tapia, although the candidate ultimately lost. In general, Tapia notes that climate is on the minds of voters and candidates alike, but not always at first glance. “It is [there], but you have to dig a little deeper,” she said.Shelley Hunter, Quincy, CaliforniaIn the aftermath of the Dixie Fire, Hunter’s hotel, the Quincy Featherbed Inn, was first frequented by fatigued firefighters and now has been filled by construction workers and displaced neighbors. “We have turned to hopefulness instead of being victimized,” she said. But it hasn’t been easy. “Quincy is just trying to survive,” she added.Many of the restaurants have shuttered. Residents are moving away. Tourists that fuel the town’s economy are in shorter supply. “It is not just the fire – it is the pandemic and inflation and the lack of labor is just a perfect storm to impact everyone.”A lifelong Democrat, Hunter is now exploring a political shift in response to the change in circumstances she’s experienced. With increasing threats posed by the climate crisis, which have made water more scarce, spurred the rise in megafires like the Dixie, and spiked temperatures, Hunter fears for her both livelihood and her life. That, she said, has made voting more complicated.“It feels like it is one extreme to the other,” she said of the Democrats and Republicans, who she feels split messaging between climate consciousness and small business support respectively. “Climate change is real. It is happening and it is going to affect everybody,” she said. “And, it’s getting harder and harder to stay in business.”As an early voter who was vocal about her support of the Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, Hunter cast votes for Republicans down-ballot for the first time this year. It helped that former president Trump wasn’t on the ballot, she said, noting her refusal to vote for candidates supportive of him. But her belief that conservatives will help her small business survive the bumpy road ahead is a complicated one. She’s looking for moderates who can address a multitude of concerns in the face of escalating catastrophes.“It is a shift for me,” she said. But anybody who denies climate change I am not voting for – let’s get real here.Sophie Swope, Bethel, AlaskaSwope is a city councilmember in Bethel, a western Alaskan city in a region that has been warming three to four times faster than the lower 48 states. Melting permafrost and storms have wreaked havoc on infrastructure, and the ground under Swope has literally cracked and shifted. In recent years, Swope, who is Yupik and a member of the Orutsararmiut tribe, has seen erosion and flooding displace homes, schools and even entire villages surrounding Bethel. “Climate change is happening before our eyes,” she said.Swope, 24, said she was looking for candidates who possess an understanding of how the climate crisis is affecting rural and tribal communities, their livelihood and their survival. She’s especially excited to vote for Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Alaska’s sole seat in the US House of Representatives. This summer, Peltola, who is also Yupik and from Bethel, became the first Alaska Native to be elected to Congress. “She has fished in our rivers for the majority of her life,” Swope said. “She understands how precious all of our natural resources are.”Swope founded a non-profit to oppose the development of the Donlin Gold mine – which if completed would be the largest open pit goldmine in the world. In a state where the economy is enmeshed with extractive industries, and where the people live at the Arctic edge of the climate crisis, Swope is also wary of candidates who prioritize development over the health of communities and ecosystems. “I understand that there is a need for mining and extraction at some level,” she said. “But we have to keep in mind how in Alaska every piece of land is precious.”Stuart Palley, Orange county, CaliforniaPhotographer Stuart Palley has been on the frontline of disasters for nearly a decade, capturing the devastation and escalation of wildfires in the west from behind his camera. For Palley, a lifelong Californian, the crisis is also personal. He’s watched as lands he loves turned to moonscapes, seen infernos swallow whole towns and lamented the loss of thousands-year-old trees that succumbed to firestorms. A self-described progressive, bearing witness to countless catastrophes has brought the climate crisis into sharper focus for Palley and the issue is now central to how he vets candidates from either party.“It is important to me that a candidate actually has a plan,” he said, emphasizing that that includes a greater acknowledgment of the intersectionality between climate action and equity and inclusion. “I tend to vote Democrat but there are independents and even the Green party that have better platforms,” he added, noting that his home district’s distinctly purple hue has at times skewed his support blue.“Our district is such a purple district and such a swing district for Congress and the county board of supervisors that the margin is down to a few thousand votes.”But even beyond the scope of his work, he’s worried about California’s treasured landscapes and ecosystems, including Joshua Tree national park near his home, bear the brunt of a warming world. “A lot of these areas are under threat,” he said, adding “I need politicians to care about this.” So, Palley plans to cast his votes with an eye toward the escalating threats looming now and in the future – with full knowledge of what’s at stake.“What’s the point of anything else if we don’t have a livable planet?”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Climate crisisUS politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      White women have been voting against their (reproductive) interests for a long time | Arwa Mahdawi

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      White women have been voting against their (reproductive) interests for yearsArwa MahdawiThe latest polls are a sobering reminder that some women will vote in ways that threaten their bodily autonomy if it helps bolster their status Sign up for the Week in Patriarchy, a newsletter​ on feminism and sexism sent every Saturday.‘The elephant in the room is white and female’There are only a few days left until the US midterm elections and, if a new poll is to be believed, white women might help contribute to a red wave. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that white suburban women have “significantly shifted” their support from Democrats to Republicans amid “rising concerns over the economy and inflation”. The Journal found that white suburban women “now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal‘s August poll”.Hang on a second. What about reproductive rights? What about the fact that Republican states have implemented dystopian abortion laws that, among other horror stories, forced a 10-year-old rape victim to flee her home state in order to have a safe and legal abortion? What about the fact that Republicans are threatening to overturn the right to contraception? Doesn’t that all count for something?Democratic strategists certainly thought it might. After Roe v Wade was overturned in June, it looks like the November midterms would be a referendum on reproductive rights and Democrats spent accordingly. According to a CNN analysis, Democratic campaigns and groups spent $214m on broadcast TV ads that mentioned abortion – 45% of all the ad money spent by the party over that time. By contrast they spent less than $18m on ads about inflation; a fraction of the $77m Republicans spent on the topic during the same period.It seems that, when it comes to white suburbia at least, abortion-focused ads have fallen on increasingly indifferent ears. Reproductive rights are still a concern, according to the Journal’s poll, but they’re not as top of mind as the fact that food prices are through the roof and we seem to be hurtling into a recession. It’s understandable that people might be more worried about feeding their family than family planning right now. Still, it’s not like you can trust Republicans to make the economy better; they have a track record of doing quite the opposite. You can certainly trust them to make reproductive rights worse, however.The fact that white suburban women might vote for a party that is eager to legislate their uteruses just because the same party is making vague promises to fix the economy has shocked some commentators. On Thursday, Sunny Hostin, a co-host of ABC’s The View likened suburban women voting Republican to “roaches voting for Raid … they’re voting against their own self-interest”. It’s not really a great idea to compare any group of people to cockroaches and this quote was immediately seized upon by the rightwing press and spun into its own news cycle. Still, you get the idea, voting for a party that doesn’t quite see you as human seems bonkers.Alas, white women have been voting against their own (reproductive) interests for a very long time. White women have voted for the Republican candidate in the past 18 presidential elections, the Washington Post has noted, “breaking only for Lyndon B Johnson and for Bill Clinton’s second term”. White women memorably voted in large numbers for Donald Trump, a proud misogynist. “The elephant in the room is white and female, and she has been standing there since 1952,” the political scientist Jane Junn wrote in 2016. “This result has been hiding in plain sight, obscured by a normative bias that women are more Democratic than men. They are … But this does not mean that white women are more Democratic overall. They are not.”The takeaway here, by the way, isn’t that American voters don’t care about Roe v Wade being overturned any more. Abortion rights are still very much top of mind for voters. Among likely Democratic voters in the CNN poll, 29% named abortion as their top issue, while 27% chose the economy. The Republicans’ extreme stance on abortion has galvanized more young women to say they will vote; despite the Wall Street Journal’s poll, there’s still a very good chance reproductive rights could help swing the midterms in the Democrats’ favour. Still, the Journal’s poll is also a sobering reminder that women are not a monolith. Some women will also vote in ways that threaten their bodily autonomy if it helps bolster their status overall. Patriarchy requires its handmaidens.China tells women to ‘respect family values’ in revised law“Women should respect and obey national laws, respect social morals, professional ethics and family values,” according to an amendment to China’s Women’s Rights and Interests Protection Law. As birth rates drop in China, the government seems to be trying to push more women out of public life and into traditional caregiver roles. Last month, for example China’s Politburo standing committee, the small group that runs the country, became entirely male for the first time since 1997.Alcohol deaths rose among women during the pandemicExcessive drinking has been killing increasing numbers of middle-aged American adults for nearly two decades. However, things got markedly worse during the pandemic when lockdown drove many of us to drink. Alcohol-related deaths rose by 26% from 2019 to 2020; among women aged 35-44 they went up 42% in the same period. From 2000 through 2018, age-adjusted alcohol-related deaths rose yearly, but never at a rate higher than 7%, NBC reports.Miss Puerto Rico and Miss Argentina marry in a secret ceremonyHoping Netflix makes a holiday movie about this immediately.Women globally retire with a quarter less wealth than menThe wealth gap is largely due to the gender pay gap and the fact that the burden of parenting still largely falls on women.Only 5.3% of all US state legislators are women with children under the age of 18 at homeThat’s according to data collected by the Vote Mama Foundation, which is dedicated to getting mothers, specifically Democrats, elected to public office. Meanwhile only 7% of members of Congress are mothers of minor children – in comparison, nearly 18% of people in the US are mothers with kids under 18.The week in pawtriarchyYour dog may be judging you – but only if your dog is female. A new study out of Japan has found that female dogs can recognize “a human’s competence and adjust their behavior based on their evaluation”. Luckily for me I have a male dog who doesn’t notice my incompetence. He’s a good simple boy.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022OpinionUS politicscommentReuse this content More

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      Michigan’s top election official: ‘Every tactic tried in 2020 will be tried again’

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      InterviewMichigan’s top election official: ‘Every tactic tried in 2020 will be tried again’Sam Levine in New YorkUp for re-election as secretary of state herself, Jocelyn Benson expects more electoral interference in the looming midterms Jocelyn Benson can still rattle off all the important dates.There was 17 November 2020, when two canvassers in Michigan’s Wayne county nearly refused to certify the election results. There was 23 November, when the state board almost did the same thing. There was 5 December, when dozens of armed protesters gathered outside her home as she put up Christmas decorations with her family. And there was 6 January, when an armed mob laid siege to the US Capitol.The US is on a knife-edge. The enemy for Trump’s Republicans is democracy itself | Jonathan FreedlandRead moreTwo years later, Benson, a Democrat, is overseeing another high-stakes election in her state, a key battleground in the US. She’s also running for a second term as Michigan’s top election official – secretary of state – facing off against Kristina Karamo, a Republican who gained national attention for seeding doubt about the results of the 2020 race. There’s little doubt in Benson’s mind that there will be another attempt to overturn the will of the voters in her state.“We expect that every lever that was pulled, and every tactic that was tried in 2020, will be tried again in ’22, and will be tried again in ’24,” she said in an interview with the Guardian. “And so we go into this election cycle not only with the knowledge of those tactics, but with the expectation in fact that there will be more people in positions of authority or willing to endorse those tactics than there were in 2020.”Looking back at the 2020 election, Benson now sees two things she wishes she had done differently. First, the pandemic restricted the amount of in-person interaction Benson could have with voters, limiting her ability to answer questions. Second, she said, her office didn’t plan enough for the possibility of attempts to interfere in the vote-counting process.“We thought at that point that the 2020 election, and our work in it, would be done. Because our work was to make sure that the process went well and everything else would play out the way it always has,” she said. “We drastically underestimated the post-election challenges that we endured for the months following November 2020. And we won’t make that mistake again.”Michigan was at the forefront of Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Human error in a rural county helped feed conspiracy theories of a stolen vote. A chaotic scene at a central ballot-counting station in Detroit led to baseless allegations of malfeasance. All of that culminated in an enormous pressure campaign from Trump and his allies for local bipartisan boards of canvassers not to certify the election. Several reviews have affirmed Joe Biden’s victory in the state and there is no evidence of fraud.Republicans have spent the last two years focused on the state’s election infrastructure. Some officials on local canvassing boards who voted to certify the results of the 2020 election have been quietly replaced by Republicans. There has been a well-organized effort to recruit and train people who doubt the 2020 election results to work the polls, leading to increased concern about intimidation.That potential for violence on election day is one of the things that Benson is worried about as the midterms approach.“What January 6 taught us is that there is no bottom to how far someone will go, especially armed with misinformation to interfere with the fair and free elections of our country and of our state,” she said. “Because of that variable, because of that unknown and because of that potential, I am every day hopeful but concerned that people will show up to vote on election day and instead of finding a serene and even joyful experience, it will be a stressful one at best. Or that violence will erupt either during or after the election.”She’s also worried that some people, after a barrage of misinformation about election lies, may simply decide not to vote at all. “That breaks my heart,” she said. “I worry that the attacks that democracy has endured over these years, and the misinformation that has only escalated in toxicity, will ultimately lead many people to give up on politics altogether.”Even before she was a secretary of state, Benson recognized the enormous overlooked power these state officials have. She literally wrote a book on the topic: in 2010, long before secretaries of state were household names, she authored State Secretaries of State: Guardians of the Democratic Process. More than a decade later, there’s more attention on secretaries of state than ever after an election in which their power over election rules came into clear focus.“I’ve been really gratified that there is increased attention on these positions. And then also similarly really dismayed to see people seeking to fill these roles who have no interest in protecting or serving or expanding democracy,” she said. “I’m deeply concerned about the actual harm that election deniers can do through these offices. And I’m just as concerned about the misinformation that they may validate and spread about their colleagues, about their systems, through these positions. And how that cumulatively will dismantle potentially from within.“And then all of that is just metastasized when you have someone like that in a battleground state. Like in Michigan. Or in Georgia. Where they’re going to get extra pressure, as Brad Raffensperger did in Georgia. And you know, what if they say, ‘yes, I will find those 11,000 votes’ next time?” she added, alluding to an infamous Trump call during the 2020 election.When Benson meets people on the campaign trail who still doubt the results of the last presidential election, she listens and tries to narrow down what the specific questions they have are. “I want every voter to have rightly placed faith in the system. Because they should,” she said. “I welcome the questions. I welcome the scrutiny. Because I have so much faith in the security of the elections.”But Benson also recognizes that there are some instances when, despite her position, she might not be able to get through to someone. “There are some cases in which someone else answering them, like a Republican state senator, Ed McBroom, may be more effective. They may be more likely to hear the answer from someone else. So if that happens, then you adjust accordingly,” she said.“I think ultimately if people are willing to listen to each other, and if people are willing to listen to the facts, we can get to a place, even not all the time, but sometimes, where folks understand or are willing to entertain the possibility that they have been misled,” she said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022MichiganUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsUS elections 2020interviewsReuse this content More

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      Ohio’s partisan supreme court election could decide abortion’s future in state

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      AnalysisOhio’s partisan supreme court election could decide abortion’s future in statePoppy NoorThe midterms include key elections to the state’s highest court as the judicial system becomes increasingly politicized In Ohio, a highly partisan fight over three state supreme court seats could determine the political direction of the court on a slew of important issues – particularly abortion.With the US supreme court increasingly handing issues such as voting rights, abortion, gun rights and gerrymandering back to the states, state supreme court races are becoming more important than ever.Abortion on the ballot: here are the US states voting on a woman’s right to chooseRead moreFew states illustrate how political these courts are becoming better than Ohio, where justices’ party affiliation will be listed on the ballot for the first time in the 8 November election, and where the justices on that court will soon determine the fate of the state’s six-week abortion ban that has been blocked and unblocked by lower courts since Roe v Wade was overturned early in the summer. Abortion is currently legal in the state up to 22 weeks, as the ban is being litigated.As a result of the stakes, more cash is also pouring into state supreme court races around the country from political action committees associated with the national parties. Fair Courts America, a Pac associated with the Republican party, has pledged $22.5m for state supreme court races this election cycle, to support conservative judicial candidates in Kentucky, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.In Kentucky, that same Pac has donated $1.6m to three conservative judges vying for election. One of those judges, Joe Fischer, is a former Republican congressman who was the key sponsor of the state’s trigger ban on abortion that went into effect when Roe was overturned, as well as an anti-abortion referendum that’s being put to Kentucky voters next week.“People used to spend all their time looking at the federal constitution for protections, particularly when it came to individual rights. But now the US supreme court is basically saying these matters are better left resolved in the state courts and their state constitutions,” explains Bill Weisenberg, a former assistant executive director of the Ohio State Bar Association.In Ohio, after Roe fell, ending the federal constitutional right to abortion, the state implemented a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. That ban is currently being blocked by a lower state court, but ultimately, it will land with the state supreme court. And the election of certain justices will be pivotal in determining the future of the ban.The seven-justice Ohio supreme court currently has four Republican justices and three Democratic justices. The current chief justice, Maureen O’Connor, a Republican, is not seeking re-election this year because of age limits, so two other sitting justices, Republican Sharon Kennedy and Democrat Jennifer Brunner, will battle it out to replace her in the top spot. Two incumbent Republican justices, Pat DeWine and Pat Fischer will face Democratic challengers Marilyn Zayas and Terri Jamison, for seats on the court.O’Connor, the chief justice who is standing down, was a Republican-affiliated judge who was happy to break with the party line on issues such as gerrymandering. She has never openly indicated where she stands on abortion.But all three Republican justices up for election on Tuesday have stated on candidate surveys that they believe there is no constitutional right to abortion, according to local news, meaning their elections could strike a fatal blow to abortion rights in Ohio.They also came under fire in September for attending a Trump rally where the former president repeated baseless claims about the 2020 election being stolen, and for subsequently refusing to confirm that the results of the 2020 election were valid. One of those justices – Pat DeWine – is also under scrutiny for having liked a tweet promoting a conspiracy theory about the violent attack on the husband of the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, asking “what are they hiding?” He has since said he clicked “like” inadvertently.Meanwhile, Zayas, Jamison and Brunner have publicly stated that they believe the Ohio constitution protects the right to abortion.Weisenberg cautions that neither political affiliation, nor what a justice indicates of their views before their election, are watertight indicators for how they will rule once they are on the supreme court. “People are surprised sometimes when they read the opinion and it’s not in keeping with where they thought the justice would lean, or what they had said on a prior occasion,” he said.Indeed, the US supreme court justices Brett Kavanaugh and Samuel Alito indicated they believed the constitutional right to abortion was settled precedent before being confirmed to the court.TopicsOhioAbortionReproductive rightsRoe v WadeUS justice systemUS midterm elections 2022US politicsanalysisReuse this content More

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      Republicans appear better positioned than ever ahead of midterms

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      Republicans appear better positioned than ever ahead of midtermsHistory shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm, and Democrats seem likely to follow that pattern With just a few days left before polls close in America’s crucial midterm elections, Republicans appear better positioned than ever to regain control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate as well.History shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, and despite some optimistic signs over the summer, Democrats now seem likely to follow that pattern on 8 November.How Republicans’ racist attack ads wiped out Democrat’s lead in WisconsinRead moreRepublicans’ prospects have grown brighter as more voters identify the economy as their top priority, after many Democrats spent the summer campaigning on the importance of abortion rights following the supreme court’s reversal of Roe v Wade in June.An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken last week showed that 49% of Americans named the economy or inflation as the most important issue determining their vote for Congress, compared to 14% who said the same of abortion.Surveys show Republicans enjoy an advantage with voters when it comes to economic concerns, and the party’s candidates have gained steam in the polls as Americans fret over rising prices and the possibility of a recession. Republicans now hold a 1.3-point advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. One survey from the Republican polling firm Cygnal found the party with a three-point lead on the generic ballot, representing a four-point swing in five weeks.“I expect the GOP to add another one to two points to their generic lead in the closing week,” Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder, said. “It’s much better to be a Republican candidate right now than a Democratic one.”Given Democrats’ narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, Republicans only need to flip a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat to regain control, and they are heavily favored to capture control of at least one if not both chambers.This week, the Cook Political Report moved another 10 House seats in Republicans’ direction, underscoring how Democrats have been forced to fight on an expanded map in the final weeks before election day. Congressional districts that Joe Biden won by double digits two years ago now appear to be in play, which has forced Democrats to defend seats previously considered to be safe. Republicans will also enjoy the benefits of a favorable round of redistricting following the 2020 census, which allowed the party to reconfigure the House map in a number of battleground states.On Wednesday, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super Pac supporting House Republicans, announced a $5.6m ad blitz in Democratic-held districts that had attracted little attention earlier in the campaign cycle. The CLF is spending $1.8m to try to unseat Congressman Sean Casten, whose seat was just moved from likely Democratic to lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report. Biden carried Casten’s district in the suburbs of Chicago by 11 points in 2020.“Enthusiasm behind Republicans’ fight to win the House majority continues to grow every day,” said Dan Conston, the president of CLF. “All cycle we made it our priority to expand the map as far as possible and late breakers are giving us the opportunity to press even deeper in the final stretch.”Democrats’ Senate prospects appear similarly grim. As of this week, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans the narrowest of advantages to take back the Senate, marking the first since July that Democrats were not favored to maintain control of the upper chamber. Democratic incumbents previously expected to hold on to their seats have watched their polling advantages vanish in the past month.One poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center showed the Democratic senator Maggie Hassan trailing her Republican opponent, Don Bolduc, by one point, marking a seven-point swing in a month. On Thursday, Republican Herschel Walker also took the lead in the Georgia Senate race for the first time since June, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The Democratic senator Raphael Warnock has been unable to establish a clear lead in the race, despite recent accusations that Walker pressured two women into having abortions.Democrats contend that early voting data provides a reason for optimism about keeping the Senate, as more than 35 million Americans have already cast their ballots. In states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, which could determine control of the Senate, Democrats make up a greater share of the early voting population than they did in 2018. But given Donald Trump’s attempts to raise baseless doubts about the legitimacy of voting by mail, more Republicans are expected to show up at the polls on election day, and that could erase Democrats’ early advantage.In a speech delivered near the Capitol on Wednesday, Biden sounded clear-eyed about his party’s midterm prospects. Expressing grave concern about the recent attack on the husband of the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and the rise in violent rhetoric among some Republican lawmakers, Biden urged Americans to consider the fate of their democracy as they head to cast their ballots.“This is no ordinary year. So I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we’re in,” Biden said. “In a typical year, we’re often not faced with questions of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put us at risk. But this year, we are. This year, I hope you will make the future of our democracy an important part of your decision to vote and how you vote.”As of now, Biden’s pro-democracy message does not appear to be resonating with enough voters to avoid a Democratic rout on Tuesday. If current trends hold, a Republican wave could crash over the country next week.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicansDemocratsnewsReuse this content More

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      How Michigan Republicans’ campaign is a ‘direct attack on democracy’

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      How Michigan Republicans’ campaign is a ‘direct attack on democracy’ As the key swing state heads into the midterms, Republicans have launched a coordinated effort to pack the process of overseeing electionsChristopher Thomas spent 36 years as director of Michigan’s elections, overseeing the laborious but uncontentious running of presidential vote counts.Then came 2020. Within hours of the polls closing in the presidential race, roving bands of Donald Trump’s supporters were moving from table to table at one of Detroit’s principal counting centres, flinging around accusations of vote rigging as they challenged and intimidated poll workers in the key swing state.US midterms 2022: the key candidates who threaten democracyRead more“These folks rolled in as a result of social media telling them to get down there because everything was being stolen. So they all came in, pretty revved up. I’m not expecting that,” said Thomas.Several hundred descended on the convention centre where about 170,000 postal ballots were collated in the overwhelmingly Democratic city. Some yelled “stop the count”. Others taunted the vote counters. Groups of Trump supporters, locked out when the situation became too unruly, pounded on windows and doors.In the end, the count continued and Joe Biden overturned Trump’s slim victory in Michigan four years earlier, helping to push the then president out of the White House.But as Michigan heads into crucial midterm elections, and with the next presidential race swinging into view, both sides have learned lessons.The state’s Republicans have launched a coordinated effort to pack the process of overseeing elections with partisan poll monitors, while recruiting lawyers and sympathetic law enforcement officials ready to wade in to disputes, in what appears to be a strategy to create enough confusion and disagreement that unfavorable results are thrown into doubt. That potentially opens the way for the courts or, in the electoral college process for the presidential election, the Republican-controlled state legislature to intervene.All of this fits with the “precinct strategy” pushed by Steve Bannon, Trump’s former strategist who has been sentenced to four months in prison for contempt of Congress, to shoehorn grassroots Trump supporters into low-level positions across the country, such as election administration and on school boards, in order to take control “village by village … precinct by precinct”.Thomas, who retired as elections director in 2017 but continues to consult for the Detroit city clerk, is concerned.“I’m watching these efforts to enlist partisan poll workers with some scepticism,” he said.Michigan’s 83 elected county clerks oversee elections in their jurisdictions with some authority delegated to city and township election officials. They include Barb Byrum, a Democrat who has spent the past 10 years as Ingham county clerk after five years as a state legislator.“We really started seeing the attack on our elections over six years ago but it has really ramped up,” she said.“There’s a concerted effort by the Republicans to encourage individuals to be hired by local clerks to work the election but then also serve as spies basically for the Republican party. They have been encouraged to sneak cellphones into the absentee county boards and call select Republican attorneys during election day.”Byrum, who was once barred from speaking during an anti-abortion debate in the Michigan legislature for using the word “vasectomy”, said illicit cellphones, which are barred from the count, put the “secrecy of the ballot at risk”.Political parties also get to appoint challengers who can question whether a person is qualified to vote. Byrum said that opens another avenue for disruption if the challengers make bad faith interventions that create long lines in strongly Democratic areas and discourage people from voting.In June, Politico revealed video recordings of the Republican National Committee election integrity director for Michigan, Matthew Seifried, telling party activists that there was going to be “an army” of poll challengers at work in Detroit and beyond who would be kept in touch with legal teams ready to move in at any claim of irregularity.“We’re going to have more lawyers than we’ve ever recruited, because let’s be honest, that’s where it’s going to be fought, right?” he said.Politico also obtained recordings of the legal counsel to the Trump-aligned Amistad Project, Tim Griffin, discussing plans to mobilise sympathetic district attorneys to launch investigations into allegations of voter and counting irregularities.“Remember, guys, we’re trying to build out a nationwide district attorney network. Your local district attorney, as we always say, is more powerful than your congressman,” Griffin told activists. “They’re the ones that can seat a grand jury. They’re the ones that can start an investigation, issue subpoenas, make sure that records are retained, etc.”Last year, Michigan’s Republican party chose a Trump supporter, who said he would not have certified Biden’s election victory, to serve on the body that certifies elections in Detroit and its surrounding county. Robert Boyd said he regards the 2020 presidential election results as “inaccurate” because of events at the disrupted Detroit count.Boyd, who has blamed the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol on Black Lives Matter and antifa “agitators”, is one of two Republicans on the Wayne county board of canvassers alongside two Democrats. If they deadlock on whether to certify future elections, that could open the way for legal challenges to the result and the intervention of the state legislature. The Republican legislature has the authority to overturn the popular vote and appoint its own choice of delegates to the electoral college for the president, although it would be an unprecedented move that it declined to take in 2020.Still, Byrum said Republican attitudes had hardened and she saw a concerted effort to create disruption and disputes to open the way for legal and political intervention to challenge election results they don’t like.“I think this is a direct attack on our democracy because this is a concerted effort to undermine the integrity of our elections, and ultimately, attack our democracy,” she said.In response to the disruption, the state’s elections board has tightened regulations to prevent groups of poll monitors from roaming around from one counting table to another to prevent intimidation. Thomas said there are already regulations in place to prevent frivolous or repeated challenges against voters. They have rarely been used in the past.“We have certainly reorganised how we control the environment there compared to 2020 having never seen anything like that in the years before,” he said.Thomas took some comfort from the relatively smooth passing of August’s primary elections.“There’s one group, called Election Integrity Group, they can be a bit on the obnoxious side. But we can all tolerate a little bit of obnoxiousness. They didn’t interfere with the process,” he said.“Of course, the Republicans didn’t really have much at stake in the city of Detroit in the August primary. So we’ll see when stakes go up as we get to the general.”Justin Roebuck, the Republican county clerk and chief elections officer for Ottawa county, said the atmosphere was fraught, with his office still dealing with a flood of freedom of information requests looking for evidence of fraud in the presidential election.“Over the past couple of years, we’ve seen the level of disinformation that came out of the 2020 election cycle has really amplified and solidified in some ways. That misinformation has really taken root in a certain percentage of our population,” he said.“Folks are still asking to see all sorts of things like the voted ballots from the 2020 election. They’re asking to see the digital imaging of our software that was used to programme the 2020 election. They’re coming from all over the place, and not just voters here in my jurisdiction or in Michigan. They’re coming from around the country.”Roebuck, like clerks in other counties, has sought to reassure voters with greater transparency about how the counting process works and in the training of poll workers. He said that many of them are persuaded of the legitimacy of the vote once they see the system at work. But, like Thomas, he said there was a small hardcore intent on challenging any outcome they do not like.“There’s probably about a 10% portion of the population that has truly bought into the notion that our elections were stolen, and I’m not sure how successful I will be in convincing those folks because I have had a lot of those conversations where it’s just very difficult to get through to people with the facts,” he said.The democratic process is also under pressure from some local officials spreading false accusations that the elections they are overseeing may be rigged.Last year, Michigan’s bureau of elections stripped the Republican clerk of Adams township, Stephanie Scott, of her authority to run the municipal election after she refused to submit a vote tabulating machine for routine testing.“The county clerk’s office and now secretary of state are demanding I drop off my machine for unfettered access, and God only knows doing what to it,” she told the Bridge Michigan news site.“When you have the fox guarding the henhouse, somebody’s got to stand up and guard those hens.”The township supervisor, Mark Nichols, backed Scott, saying that voting machines “have been a tool to steal our elections” and 2020 was “the year of the lie” .The Michigan bureau of elections director, Jonathan Brater, wrote to Scott accusing her of making “numerous false statements” when she questioned the integrity of the vote at a township public meeting.“By communicating false or misleading information about elections in Michigan, you risk not only undermining confidence in democracy in your community, but also amplifying threats and intimidation of your fellow election officials across our state which, fueled by misinformation, continue unabated,” Brater told Scott.‘The Trump playbook’: Republicans hint they will deny election resultsRead moreBrater also had to warn local election officials to ignore a cease and desist letter from the Republican candidate for Michigan attorney general next month, Matthew DePerno, demanding they cancel planned voting machine maintenance because it could “destroy or alter” voting records he alleges are fraudulent. DePerno beat two Republican rivals after Trump backed him in the primary election.One Michigan county clerk hired a Trump supporter to recruit poll workers who was filmed urging people to storm the Capitol in Washington on 6 January 2021 and joined white nationalist Proud Boys rallies at the state legislature.All of this leaves Roebuck despairing of his own party: “Our voters deserve honesty. Sometimes it can be a political advantage for candidates to go down a different path to use talking points about election integrity or election misinformation, but I don’t think it’s an advantage to our society in the long term,” he said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022MichiganUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Twitter’s mass layoffs, days before US midterms, could be a misinformation disaster

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      Twitter’s mass layoffs, days before US midterms, could be a misinformation disasterInternal chaos at the company – and the decimation of its staff – has created ideal conditions for falsehoods and hateful content The mass layoffs at Twitter that diminished several teams, including staff on the company’s safety and misinformation teams, could spell disaster during the US midterm elections next week, experts have warned. The company has laid off around 50% of its workforce, according to news reports; a figure that Musk and others have not disputed, amounting to an estimated 3,700 people.The internal chaos unfolding at Twitter, in addition to a sudden lack of staff and resources dedicated to counteracting misinformation, has created ideal conditions for election misinformation to thrive, said Paul Barrett, an expert in disinformation and fake news at New York University.What changes has Elon Musk made at Twitter and what might he do next?Read more“Twitter is in the midst of a category 5 hurricane, and that is not a good environment for fostering vigilance when dealing with inevitable attempts to spread falsehoods and hateful content on a very influential platform,” he said.Elon Musk and other senior figures have sought to re-assure the public. Twitter’s head of safety and integrity, Yoel Roth, said in a tweet on Friday that the layoffs affected “approximately 15%” of the trust and safety team – responsible for combating misinformation – with its “frontline moderation staff experiencing the least impact”.Musk also stated that he had spoken to civil society leaders at the Anti-Defamation League and the nonprofit Color of Change about “how Twitter will continue to combat hate and harassment and enforce its election integrity policies”.However, members of those groups claimed on Friday that in laying off the teams responsible for retaining election integrity, Musk had “betray[ed]” those promises. They called on advertisers to pull funding from Twitter as risks around elections continue to mount.“Retaining and enforcing election-integrity measures requires an investment in the human expert staff, factcheckers, and moderators, who are being shown the door today,” said Jessica J González, co-CEO of civil liberties group Free Press. In addition to a portion of its trust and safety team, Twitter appears to have axed the entire curation team, responsible for creating guides to authoritative information often surfaced alongside topics with high risk of misinformation. A London-based team member tweeted on Friday that the group at Twitter “is no more”. Another former team member echoed the claims on Friday, stating that the changes “will make Twitter noisier, more dangerous and less interesting”.Twitter also appears to have eliminated its ethics, transparency, and accountability team, which is in charge of opening up the platform’s algorithm for external review and studying the amplification of misinformation and other content.Although Musk has not made any concrete policy changes, nor allowed back any high-profile banned figures such as Donald Trump, the lack of staffing could pose a major problem for enforcing existing policies, Barrett said. Although automated systems are likely to continue to run, “you need human beings to pick up subtle forms of misinformation”.“It does not seem like there will be many people at the desk in the office prepared for oversight of content that could contribute to the continuing erosion of trust in our election system,” Barrett said.Twitter layoffs raise questions about future of infrastructure and moderationRead moreIn addition to misinformation concerns on Twitter, cuts to infrastructure have raised alarm that the platform itself may not survive the influx of traffic expected during the elections. The issue was called into focus earlier this year when a whistleblower accused the company of “egregious” failings in security and safety.An internal source at the company told Reuters that the infrastructure cuts were “delusional”, adding that when user traffic surges, the service can fail “in spectacular ways”.While it is too soon to measure concrete impacts of Twitter’s restructuring, early tracking shows hate speech is increasing. Researchers from Montclair State University found in the 12 hours immediately after Musk took ownership on Twitter, “vulgar and hostile” rhetoric saw an “immediate, visible and measurable spike”, including a rise in racial slurs.“What we have seen so far has been a canary in the coal mine for what might come in the days immediately before and – crucially – in the days after the election,” Barrett said. “This is an all-hands-on-deck situation, and unfortunately many of those hands are out the door.”TopicsTwitterUS midterm elections 2022US politicsSocial mediaElon MusknewsReuse this content More

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      National security adviser visits Kyiv as US announces $400m in aid to Ukraine – as it happened

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      National security adviser Jake Sullivan visited Kyiv on Friday to “underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine” while announcing a $400 mn infusion in new weapons, including tanks and drones, the White House announced.“National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, head of the office of the president Andriy Yermak, Minister of Defense Reznikov, and others in Kyiv today to underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine and its people as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity,” national security council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.“To that end, Mr Sullivan announced an additional $400m security assistance package, which includes refurbished T-72 tanks, unmanned aerial vehicles, and the refurbishment of 250 HAWK surface to air missiles for eventual transfer to Ukraine. He also affirmed the continued provision of economic and humanitarian assistance, as well as ongoing efforts with partners to hold Russia accountable for its aggression.” Opinion polls, extremist trials and finger pointing were all in the news on the last Friday before Tuesday’s midterm election, in which Democrats are fighting to maintain their majorities in the House and Senate for another two years. Meanwhile, one of Donald Trump’s top fundraisers was acquitted of obstruction and false statement charges by a jury, while the former president appeared to blow a deadline to answer a subpoena from the January 6 committee.Here’s a rundown of what happened today:
      Elon Musk made good on plans to enact major layoffs at Twitter, the extent of which are still not clear.
      The latest government employment data was surprisingly good in October, despite the economy’s ongoing struggles with high inflation.
      A majority of Americans fear political violence, though are divided on which party is responsible, according to a poll.
      House Republicans plan to press for answers about the business dealings of Hunter Biden as soon as the midterm elections are over.
      National security adviser Jake Sullivan paid a visit to Ukraine, and announced another $400 mn in weapons to fend off Russia’s invasion.
      Georgia poll shows Warnock vs Walker is tiedPolls are polls, of course: i.e. they can be unreliable. But another suvey on Georgia’s intense senate battle between scandal-prone Republican ex-football player Herschel Walker and Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock shows the race is likely a nail-biter.To many observers that might be a surprise, given Walker’s litany of bad press, especially allegations that he has paid for abortions. But in the 2022 midterms it seems that very little can be taken for granted.The Hill has more: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and his Republican rival, Herschel Walker, are heading into Election Day deadlocked, according to a new Marist College poll. The poll, released Friday, shows the two candidates tied at 48 percent each among voters who say they will “definitely” vote in the 2022 midterm elections. With a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, the race could swing either way come Election Day.Warnock performs slightly better among registered voters overall, taking 49 percent support to Walker’s 45 percent. He also has the edge among independents; 48 percent of those voters are backing Warnock, while 36 percent are supporting Walker. And there are also signs that some GOP voters could cross party lines to cast their ballots for Warnock. Eight percent of Republicans say they are supporting the Democratic incumbent, while only 1 percent of Democrats are behind Walker, the Marist poll found. Notably, neither candidate is breaching the 50 percent threshold needed to win the election outrightSupreme court to hear Navajo Nation water caseThe US Supreme Court has said says it will hear a water dispute involving the American government and the Navajo Nation.AP has the details: The high court said Friday it would review a lower court ruling in favor of the Navajo Nation, which spans parts of Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. The government signed treaties with the Navajo Nation in 1849 and 1868 that established the reservation. It was later expanded westward to the Colorado River, which forms the reservation’s western boundary. At issue in the case is water from the Colorado River, which itself is shrinking in part because of overuse and drought.The case dates back to 2003, when the tribe sued, alleging that the federal government in its Colorado River projects had failed to consider or protect water rights of the tribe. Most recently, a trial court dismissed the case but a federal appeals court allowed it to proceed. The federal government is challenging that result.The case of David DePape, who is accused of attacking Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi last week, is beginning its journey through the court system, and the Associated Press reports the judge presiding over the opening proceedings disclosed a connection to the Pelosi family.Loretta “Lori” Giorgi, a superior court judge in San Francisco, said in a hearing today that she worked with Christine Pelosi in the San Francisco city attorney’s office in the 1990s. Christine is one of Nancy Pelosi’s five adult children, the AP said. While there was no immediate effect on the trial, the disclosure could lead to either the defense or prosecution moving to have another judge take the case.Here’s more from the AP:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}In court filings released earlier this week, officials said DePape broke into the home, carrying zip ties, tape and a rope in a backpack. He woke up Paul Pelosi and demanded to talk to “Nancy,” who was out of town. Two officers who raced to the home after Paul Pelosi’s 911 call witnessed DePape hit him in the head with the hammer.
      No one objected during Friday’s hearing to Giorgi’s ties to the Pelosi family but either side could in the future and San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said the case might be heard by another judge regardless. The public defender’s office did not immediately have a comment.
      “I do want to make a disclosure on the record that the daughter of Mr. Pelosi, Christine Pelosi, and I were in the city attorney’s office together in the 90s,” Giorgi told the court. “And I have disclosed to counsel the interactions that I had when she and I were together. I haven’t seen or heard or talked to Ms. Pelosi after she left the office. I do see her here today.”
      Giorgi worked in the city attorney’s office from 1985 to 2006, when she was appointed to the bench. She rose to the rank of deputy city attorney and was the office’s public integrity chief.
      Christine Pelosi attended Friday’s hearing but seemed to leave through a back door in order to avoid media waiting in the hallway. She entered the courtroom right before the proceeding started and sat in the front row away from reporters.National security adviser Jake Sullivan visited Kyiv on Friday to “underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine” while announcing a $400 mn infusion in new weapons, including tanks and drones, the White House announced.“National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, head of the office of the president Andriy Yermak, Minister of Defense Reznikov, and others in Kyiv today to underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine and its people as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity,” national security council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.“To that end, Mr Sullivan announced an additional $400m security assistance package, which includes refurbished T-72 tanks, unmanned aerial vehicles, and the refurbishment of 250 HAWK surface to air missiles for eventual transfer to Ukraine. He also affirmed the continued provision of economic and humanitarian assistance, as well as ongoing efforts with partners to hold Russia accountable for its aggression.” Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes took the witness stand today in his seditious conspiracy trial, telling jurors he is a patriotic American as he tries to counter allegations that his far-right extremist group planned an armed rebellion to stop the transfer of presidential power, the Associated Press reports.Rhodes began his testimony after prosecutors spent weeks laying out evidence they say proves Rhodes was behind a violent far right plot to keep Democrat Joe Biden out of the White House and Republican Donald Trump in in 2021.Rhodes’ decision to testify carries risks for him, opening the way for intense cross-examination from prosecutors, who will get a chance to question him after the trial resumes next week. Rhodes has yet to get into the details of January 6, when his followers pushed through a mob of Trump supporters to storm the Capitol in military-style stack formation.Rhodes, wearing a dark suit and tie, faced jurors as he described his military experience and decision to start the Oath Keepers in 2009. Rhodes, whose stint as an Army paratrooper was cut short by a training accident, said he considers himself a patriotic person.Rhodes portrayed the Oath Keepers as peaceful and disciplined despite a mountain of evidence showing him rallying his band of extremists to prepare for violence and discussing the prospect of a “bloody” civil war ahead of January 6. Asked whether he believed the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, Rhodes falsely described Biden’s victory as “unconstitutional” and “invalid.”“You really can’t have a winner of an unconstitutional election,” Rhodes said.Rhodes’ trial is the biggest test so far for the Justice Department’s efforts to hold accountable those responsible for the attack on the Capitol, a violent assault that challenged the foundations of American democracy.Rhodes, of Granbury, Texas, and his co-defendants are the first people arrested in the January 6 attack to stand trial on the charge of seditious conspiracy. The Civil War-era charge, which carries a sentence of up to 20 years behind bars upon conviction, is rarely brought and can be hard to prove.Five days – that’s all we’ve got. That’s not a version of a David Bowie song, that was the message from US vice president Kamala Harris last night at a historic event to get out the vote for Democrats in New York.“Everything is on the line,” Harris said, warning repeatedly that with five days to go until the midterm elections on Tuesday, the stakes are high but there’s still enough time to make a difference.Five was also an interesting number from the point of view of the women leading the event, held at Barnard College, the private woman’s liberal arts college in uptown Manhattan that’s also part of the Columbia University family.As Harris told the audience herself: “You’ve witnessed a lot of history on this stage this afternoon…a whole lot of firsts…yes, we may be the first, but we are committed to not being the last.”The five firsts were the vice president herself, the first woman in that role.Our Vice President.Black women lead. pic.twitter.com/NO2F9fv12y— Tish James (@TishJames) November 3, 2022
      She was headlining the event to get out the vote for New York state governor Kathy Hochul, the first woman in that role.Proud to be fighting alongside strong women like @KamalaHarris and @HillaryClinton.Let’s secure a stronger future for women and girls everywhere at the ballot box — vote by November 8! pic.twitter.com/JDWyddrb9r— Kathy Hochul (@KathyHochul) November 3, 2022
      Other headliners were Hillary Clinton, the first woman to lead her party’s nomination for president, when she got close to winning the White House in 2016 but, catastrophically for Democrats, was beaten by Donald Trump.New York: Have you voted for @KathyHochul yet? https://t.co/tTgeqy51PU https://t.co/fql5hsJAKN— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) November 4, 2022
      And Letitia James, who’s the first woman in New York to be elected as attorney general, the first Black woman to be elected to statewide office in New York, and the first African American to serve as attorney general.If you need a great job done, then give it to a woman.I’ve done my job since you placed your trust in me, and so has @KathyHochul. We’re running for re-election to finish the work. Now it’s your turn. Go vote! pic.twitter.com/QXuWXpYxrq— Tish James (@TishJames) November 3, 2022
      Finally, the warm-up for the event was led by veteran New York congresswoman Nydia Velazquez, the first Puerto Rican woman to serve in the US Congress.A week after the attack on her husband, Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi has struck an optimistic note about the party’s chances of hanging on to the House in the upcoming midterms, Punchbowl News reports.“I believe that this race is very winnable. As I’ve said to you before, in the month of October, I was probably in 21 states, some of them more than once, twice, some of them three times. I’ve seen the enthusiasm, I’ve seen the determination, I’ve seen the courage of our candidates, the dedication of our grassroots,” Pelosi told supporters in a private event of which Punchbowl obtained a recording.“The Republicans have put in tons of money against our candidates and cut our lead in some cases, but they have not taken this. These are races, in many cases, too close to call, in margin of error. But in every case, winnable because of the grassroots. And so I think that what we are doing is not only to win an election, but to strengthen our democracy.”Democrats currently have a slim majority in Congress’s upper chamber, and would defy both historical trends and numerous polls if the manage to keep it. The party holding the White House tends to lose seats in their first midterm, while Republicans have the lead in enough race to regain a majority, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.Pelosi also spoke about her husband Paul Pelosi’s recovery from Friday’s attack by a hammer wielding assailant who said he was looking for the speaker.“It’s going to be a long haul, but he will be well, and it’s just so tragic how it happened. But nonetheless, we have to be optimistic. He’s surrounded by family. So that’s a wonderful thing,” she said.The swing district most prone to swinging in all of the United States is located on Virginia’s coast, where Democratic House representative Elaine Luria is fighting for another term in office.A former Navy commander who was part of the January 6 committee, Luria’s closing argument to voters is that she and other Democrats need to be re-elected if America’s democracy is to survive. Considering polls showing voters are this year most motivated by concerns over inflation, crime and abortion, it’s a risky strategy.The Associated Press joined Luria on the campaign trail, and had this to say:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The Virginia Democrat, quoting the late Rep. Elijah Cummings, pointed toward the girl and said: “Our children are a window into the future that we will never see.” That future, Luria argued, will look much bleaker if her Republican challenger wins one of the most contested House races in the country.
      In her first two congressional races, Luria, a former Navy commander, would more likely have been seen in settings with a military backdrop or theme. But this time she is in Suffolk, a new part of her district and one that has a Black population of 40% whose votes could well determine if she gets a third term.
      “If Luria is going to have a chance at winning, she absolutely needs to win over Black voters,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director at the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University. “Even in our polling, we see that Black voters are more likely to say they’re undecided than white voters, and that suggests that there’s some vulnerability there for Luria and a need to reach out.”Poll master Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report believes her re-election would be a sign that Tuesday may not be so bad of a night for Democrats:Here’s my rough thinking early on Election Night:- If #VA02 Luria (D) holds on, better night for Dems than expected- If #IN01 Mrvan (D) or #VA07 Spanberger (D) lose, Rs likely winning 20+ seats- If #NH02 Kuster (D) or #VA10 Wexton (D) lose, Rs likely winning 30+ seats https://t.co/XNIp07Sj0y— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2022
      A prime example of the tensions among Democrats over their message on the economy is the child tax credit.Expanded last year as part of Joe Biden’s marquee American Rescue Plan spending bill to help the economy recover from the pandemic, the program lowered child poverty by sending monthly payments to many families. It expired at the end of 2021 after Democrats failed to agree on extending it, and HuffPost reports that the party is basically avoiding the subject on the campaign trail.Here’s more from their report:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}When it comes to economic policy, Democrats have been more likely to talk about the original Social Security ― the beloved retirement benefit for seniors ― than the monthly benefit parents received last year through the expanded child tax credit.
      Democratic campaign ads have highlighted the party’s support for reducing costs for the middle class, and any mention of “middle class tax cuts” could semi-plausibly be a reference to the child tax credit, since the monthly payments the IRS sent out last year technically were, in fact, tax credits.
      But out of hundreds of campaign ads this cycle, few mention the child tax credit by name. According to a new analysis of campaign ads published Thursday by the Wesleyan Media Project, just 0.2% of federal campaign ads in the general election have mentioned the child tax credit.
      Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley hit his Democratic challenger, Mike Franken, for opposing the child tax credit because he favored repealing the 2017 Republican tax cuts, which expanded the credit before Democrats built on that expansion last year.
      Another ad, from a super PAC boosting Evan McMullin, the independent challenging incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), calls out Lee for having opposed the Democratic child tax credit last year.
      Neither of those got into any specifics about the child tax credit. From July through December, most parents in the U.S. received as much as $300 per child each month, a taste of the kind of child benefit that other developed countries have long provided. As a result of the payments, child poverty fell to nearly half its rate before the cash payments began.
      But reducing child poverty, apparently, does not make great campaign fodder. The payments were modestly popular, but much less so than empowering Medicare to negotiate cheaper prescription drugs ― another, more recent Democratic policy achievement that has been the centerpiece of plenty of campaign ads.The election isn’t even over, but something of a blame game has begun among Democrats over which tactics the party should have chosen in their quest to defy history and maintain their tiny majorities in Congress. In an interview with The Guardian’s Erum Salam, Bernie Sanders – an independent senator who caucuses with Democrats – weighs in on how the party could have better defended their record on the inflation-wracked economy:Bernie Sanders has criticized Democrats for not doing enough to motivate voters around the economic issues that have an impact on everyday life, as he warned next week’s midterm elections are the most “consequential” in modern American history.In an interview with the Guardian in Texas, the leftwing Vermont senator said: “Obviously, everybody should be turning out for what is the most consequential midterm election in the modern history of this country. Democracy is on the ballot. Women’s right to control their own bodies is on the ballot. Climate change is on the ballot, so everybody should come out.”But Sanders said he worried “very much that Democrats have not done a good enough job of reaching out to young people and working-class people and motivating them to come out and vote in this election”.‘They haven’t tried’: Bernie Sanders on Democrats’ economic messagingRead moreTom Barrack, a onetime private equity executive and fundraiser for former US president Donald Trump, was found not guilty by a jury on Friday of unlawfully acting as an agent of the United Arab Emirates, dealing a setback to the US Justice Department, Reuters writes. Barrack was also acquitted of obstruction of justice and making false statements to FBI agents in 2019 about his interactions with Emirati officials and their representatives.The verdict followed a six-week trial in federal court in Brooklyn. Barrack, who was prosecuted by the US attorney’s office in Brooklyn, had faced a total of nine criminal counts.More when we get it. More