US midterm elections 2022

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      Republicans and Democrats spend big on ads for US midterms

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      Republicans and Democrats spend big on ads for US midtermsThe rival parties have outspent the 2020 presidential election on ads addressing abortion, crime and the economy As the US midterm elections loom, Republicans and Democrats have spent almost $10bn (£8.6bn) so far on ads. It’s a staggering figure, one that exceeds even the spending on the 2020 presidential election, and is almost triple the amount spent during the last midterms.Both parties – and their dark money backers – have splashed exorbitant amounts on TV, digital and print advertising, but their focus has been very different.For Democrats, abortion has been a key issue. The party has spent almost 20 times more than it did on abortion-related ads in the 2018 midterms, NPR reported. For Republicans, there have been different messages: that inflation, crime and taxes are out of control.The result has been a whirling atmosphere for the average American, where to turn on the TV is frequently to see the two parties, and their candidates, talking straight past one another about different things.AbortionAfter the conservative-dominated supreme court overturned the federal right to abortion in June, the issue of who should have control over women’s bodies has been front and center in many midterm races.Democrats have run more than 240 ads related to abortion rights, seeking to draw attention to the extreme positions of many Republican candidates. These largely centered the personal stories of women who have had abortions. One of the most powerful ads has run in South Carolina, where Joe Cunningham, a Democrat, is bidding to defeat Henry McMaster, the state’s Republican governor.In the ad, a woman named Fran explains that she was raped by two men when she was 12 years old. She later found out she was pregnant. Fran was able to have an abortion due to Roe v Wade, then recently decided, which legalised abortion in the US.“Roe versus Wade gave me the opportunity to become an educator, a mother and grandmother,” Fran says in the ad.“I did what was best for an 88-pound 12-year-old with no other options. I am a survivor of rape: my body is not yours, and it is not the state’s, it’s mine – yet our governor, Henry McMaster, wants to ban all abortions.”In Pennsylvania, Democrats have repeatedly targeted Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor running as a Republican for the US Senate, over his opposition to abortion, and an ad launched in mid-October features a Pennsylvania doctor describing how, pre-Roe v Wade, he was trained to treat the victims of “back-alley abortions”.“Too often, women died. I thought those days were long behind us. But not so, with Mehmet Oz,” the doctor says.One of the most harrowing ads of the entire election cycle comes from Eric Swalwell, a Democratic congressman for California.It shows a family eating dinner at home when two police officers to arrest the mother for “unlawful termination of a pregnancy”. When her partner attempts to intervene, the officers draw their guns on him, prompting screaming from the couple’s young children as the woman is handcuffed.“Elections have consequences,” a voiceover says. “Stop Republicans from criminalizing abortion everywhere.”Republicans, by contrast, have spent a fraction of the Democrats’ total on abortion ads. When candidates have addressed the issue, there has been a two-pronged approach: commercials have claimed, often spuriously, that their Democratic opponents are too extreme on abortion, and that the Republican candidates themselves are moderate.An ad that aired in Arizona in September, where Republican Blake Masters is hoping to win Mark Kelly’s Senate seat, managed to combine both.His ad, prosaically titled Arizona’s Mark Kelly Supports Painful Late Abortions, is full of mistruths and dishonest statements – a theme that has run through a majority of TV ads nationwide during the election campaign – claiming wrongly that Kelly supports abortion “right up to the due date”, and stating that Masters himself has sought “compromise” on the issue, despite the Republican having backed proposals that would ban all abortion, with no exceptions for rape or incest.Cost of livingThe big spending from Republicans has come on cost of living issues, including taxation and inflation, which reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in June and was at 8.2% in September. Across the country, Republican ads have sought to blame Joe Biden for the rise, frequently citing the $1.9tn coronavirus relief bill he signed in March 2021 as the cause.In September, ads on inflation accounted for 32% of all pro-GOP advertising, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, and in South Carolina, Republican Nancy Mace has tied the rise in price of everyday items not just to Joe Biden, but Nancy Pelosi, too, in a TV ad called Eggs.The ad shows Mace, a Republican congresswoman, pouring a glass of milk and cooking some bacon. The price of both has increased, she notes, adding: “I have had it with crazy inflation.”As the ad continues, Mace offers her plan to bring down the cost of living. It is an unusual plan.“Here’s what I’m going to do to Biden’s tax and spend agenda,” Mace says. She then cracks an egg and tips the contents into a frying pan.Other ads have been less avant-garde. An ad running against Raphael Warnock, Georgia’s Democratic senator, also features a clip of some bacon, along with a gas pump, as a breathless voiceover claims Georgia has been “hit hard by sky-high inflation”.Economists tend to agree that the American Rescue Plan did worsen inflation, Vox reported recently, but there are varying estimates as to how much, and others note that the plan did improve the economy.Democrats, meanwhile, haven’t done much in the way of pushing back. Wesleyan said inflation makes up only 8% of the party and its backers’ ads, and some Democratic leaders themselves agree that their message has been unconvincing.The party seems to be picking up the idea up, though, and has released ads on the economy in the last week, including one in New Hampshire which is undermined slightly by some rather unconvincing acting:The Party bossesIn a neat symmetry, both parties appear to be running from their leaders. According to the Washington Post, since early September Democrats have spent just $3m on ads centering Joe Biden, and Republicans have spent a mere $807,000 on ads highlighting Trump.Each party has, though, run plenty of ads focusing on their opposing party’s bosses. Republicans have blasted out ad after ad criticizing Biden, mostly over spending during the pandemic. Mindful of Biden’s low approval rating – which is currently averaging about 42% – Republicans have sought to tie Democratic candidates across the country to the president.That effort contributed to possibly the daftest ad of the entire campaign season: a singsong affair titled Hidin’ Biden that ran against Democratic congresswoman Sharice Davids in Kansas:Complete with lyrics like: “Sharice Davids, what’s she hidin’, Sharice Davids, she’s hidin’ Biden”, the piano-driven tune highlights that Davids has frequently voted for Biden-backed policies.It’s a similar but less jaunty story in New Hampshire, where voters are warned that Maggie Hassan, the incumbent US senator who is being challenged by Don Bolduc, a Republican and an election denier, “votes with Joe Biden over 96% of the time”:Republicans are clearly banking that Biden is unpopular enough to turn voters away from candidates who have even the loosest connection to the president. The GOP, as FiveThirtyEight pointed out, has replicated this format in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio and Arizona.CrimeCrime is the only issue where Republicans and Democrats come close to equal spending, according to the Washington Post. Republicans, frequently pushing a dystopian vision of cities ridden by murder and violent crime, have spent $49m on ads discussing crime since early September, compared to $36m invested by Democrats.The number of murders in major cities has fallen so far in 2022, but remains above the numbers in 2019, and a survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found that violent crime had risen 4.2% through the first six months of this year compared with 2021.That has given Republicans plenty of fodder to paint Democrats as soft on crime, in some cases, with racist overtones. “In states as disparate as Wisconsin and New Mexico, ads have labeled a Black candidate as ‘different’ and ‘dangerous’ and darkened a white man’s hands as they portrayed him as a criminal,” the New York Times wrote of the trend.Mandela Barnes is the subject of the Wisconsin ad, which ends with Barnes’s face positioned next to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar – all women of color – while the words “different” and “dangerous” flash across the screen:In Pennsylvania, Oz has run several ads on crime, claiming: “Today’s kids aren’t safe in our communities.” One spot, titled Crazy Dangerous Ideas, accuses Fetterman of “emptying our prisons”, which, according to the ad, would lead to “more hardened criminals on our streets”:Democrats, for their part, have run ads featuring themselves with police officers in an effort to rebut Republican claims that the left will defund police forces.Fetterman has created ads highlighting the work he did to bring down violent crime in Braddock, where he spent 13 years as mayor, with one featuring a local sheriff. Barnes, meanwhile, recruited a retired police sergeant for an ad in September:“I worked on the force for 30 years,” the retired officer, called Rick, says.“I’ve seen plenty of politicians. But Mandela, he’s the real deal. Mandela doesn’t want to defund the police. He’s very supportive of law enforcement.”With less than a week to go until America votes, it remains to be seen which of the party’s strategies will have the most impact.In the weeks following the supreme court’s Roe v Wade decision, abortion rights became one of the most important issues for voters – and with Democrats’ huge investment in abortion-related ads, the party has been counting on it turning out the vote.But as inflation and gas prices have risen, polls show that the economy has emerged as the key issue for voters.Over the past couple of weeks some Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, have urged their party to focus on plans for economic recovery, and late-running ads could reflect voters’ concerns. As the election looms, Democratic supporters will be hoping it’s not a case of too little too late.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022AdvertisingUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Biden urges Americans to take a stand against political violence: ‘We’re facing a defining moment’

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      Biden urges Americans to take a stand against political violence: ‘We’re facing a defining moment’President asks voters to reject election denying candidates in midterms to ‘preserve democracy’ Joe Biden has issued a rallying cry for the preservation of democracy and a dark warning that America could face political violence as it barrels toward next week’s midterm elections.The US president used a prime time address on Wednesday to argue that his predecessor Donald Trump’s “big lie” about the 2020 election being stolen has become “an article of faith” in the extreme wing of the Republican party.‘The Trump playbook’: Republicans hint they will deny election resultsRead moreBiden delivered his address to supporters under a painted ceiling in an ornate room at Washington’s Union Station, which is within sight of the US Capitol that was stormed on January 6 last year by a furious mob of Trump supporters.Behind him were eight US flags and a blue curtain – a less dramatic backdrop than the red and blue lights of his “Battle for the Soul of the Nation speech at Philadelphia’s Independence Hall two months ago, where he spoke on similar themes.But just as that address was framed by Republicans as an attack on their voters, his latest remarks found little unity. The conservative Fox News channel ran captions such as “Biden ignores crime & inflation to talk about ‘threat to democracy’” and “Divider in chief”.Its effect on an election in which 27 million people have already voted was also uncertain. A CBS News poll late last month found that 63% of likely Democratic voters say a functioning democracy is a bigger concern than a strong economy, but 70% of Republican voters say the opposite.Biden acknowledged that there is much at stake in the midterm elections, just six days away, but insisted: “Make no mistake, democracy is on the ballot for all of us.”He began his remarks, hosted by the Democratic National Committee, by citing last week’s attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, at their home in San Francisco. He noted that the hammer–wielding assailant had asked “Where’s Nancy? Where’s Nancy?” – the same words used by the rioters on January 6.Trump’s false claims about a stolen election have “fueled the dangerous rise of political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years”, Biden said.“We’re facing a defining moment. We must with one overwhelming, unified voice speak, as a country, and say there’s no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America.”The midterms will determine control of Congress and mark the first nationwide test of American democracy since Trump lost the White House and his supporters laid siege to the Capitol. “I wish I could say the assault on our democracy had ended that day,” Biden remarked. “But I cannot.”The president warned that it is estimated more than 300 election deniers are on the ballot across America this year with an impact he described as damaging, corrosive and destructive.“As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America, for governor, Congress, attorney general, secretary of state, who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections that they’re running in.“That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And it’s un-American. As I’ve said before, you can’t love your country only when you win.”He called on voters to reject candidates who have denied the results of the vote which even Trump’s administration declared to be free of any widespread fraud or interference, urging them to “think long and hard about the moment we are in”.“This is no ordinary year so I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we’re in. In a typical year, we are not often faced with the question of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put it at risk. But this year we are.”Biden sought to preempt potential disinformation and unrest on election night, pointing out that it takes time to count all legitimate ballots so voters need to be patient. In 2020 Trump falsely claimed that mail-in votes tabulated after election day were illegitimate.He again identified Trump as the architect of the chaos. “He has abused his power and put the loyalty to himself above loyalty to the constitution. He’s made the big lie an article of faith in the Maga Republican party.”Biden described “ultra-Maga” Republicans – a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan – as a minority but “driving force” of the Republican party.Pointing to mounting concerns over political violence as well as threats of America’s long tradition of peaceful and accurate elections, he argued these Republicans are “trying to succeed where they failed in 2020 to suppress the rights of voters and subvert the electoral system itself”.Biden added: “There’s an alarming rise in the number of people in this country condoning political violence or simply remaining silent. The silence is complicity.”He described those who are willing to use violence to achieve political ends as a “distinct minority” in America, “but they are loud and they are determined”.Many Americans remain pessimistic about the state of democracy. An October poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just 9% of adults think democracy is working “extremely” or “very well,” while 52% say it’s not working well.Republicans condemned Wednesday’s speech. Senator Tom Cotton tweeted: “To Biden, “democracy” means one thing: Democrats having complete power.”Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, said: “Desperate and dishonest. Joe Biden promised unity but has instead demonized and smeared Americans, while making life more expensive for all.“While Republicans remain focused on the issues that matter most to voters, Biden and Democrats are flailing in the final days because they have lost touch with the concerns of families struggling to get by.”Biden has made the global struggle between democracy and autocracy a defining theme of his presidency. In a heartfelt plea, he claimed that Americans can no longer take democracy for granted. “In our bones we know democracy is at risk, but we also know this: it’s in our power to preserve our democracy.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Joe BidenRepublicansDemocratsDonald TrumpUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Trump lawyers saw Clarence Thomas as ‘only chance’ to challenge 2020 election – live

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      As they attempted to stop Joe Biden from assuming the presidency despite his victory in the 2020 election, lawyers for Donald Trump wanted to appeal specifically to Clarence Thomas, one of the most conservative justices on the supreme court, according to emails obtained by Politico.“We want to frame things so that Thomas could be the one to issue some sort of stay or other circuit justice opinion saying Georgia is in legitimate doubt,” attorney Kenneth Chesebro wrote in an email to the then-president’s lawyers on the last day of 2020.He called a ruling from Thomas “our only chance to get a favorable judicial opinion by Jan. 6, which might hold up the Georgia count in Congress.”In the weeks after he lost the 3 November 2020 election, Trump and his allies tried to convince lawmakers and officials in swing states that voted for Biden, such as Georgia, to disrupt the certification of their results and potentially delay the Democrat from taking office. They also mounted a legal campaign with the same goal.Politico obtained the emails from John Eastman, another lawyer for the president who is seen as a key architect of the campaign. The emails were among a batch Eastman unsuccessfully attempted to stop the January 6 committee from obtaining, according to Politico.In his speech, Biden plans to make the case that election deniers running for office are leading a “path to chaos in America,” according to experts released by the DNC. “There are candidates running for every level of office in America: for governor, for Congress, for attorney general, for secretary of state who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections they’re in,” Biden plans to say. “That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And, It is un-American.”He will also make the point that this is an unusual, unprecedented election year. “This is no ordinary year. So, I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we are in,” Biden will say. “In a typical year, we are not often faced with the question of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put it at risk. But we are this year.”Justice Democrats, a progressive political action committee, has urged Biden to draw a line between the right-wing threats to democracy with and the economy.“If Republicans succeed in their plot against democracy, their big oil and pharma donors will be free to raise prices as high as they wish without our one tool to reign them in: government of, by, and for the people,” said Waleed Shahid, a spokesperson for the group.“President Biden must make a strong case for how the MAGA Republican assault on our democracy is a pocketbook issue tied to inflation.” -@_WaleedShahidOur statement ahead of President Biden’s major speech on democracy tonight: pic.twitter.com/Dl9ZEdEjIj— Justice Democrats (@justicedems) November 2, 2022
      A slate of far-right candidates who have vowed to dismantle election systems are running in statewide and local races across the country, on a platform based on the conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.But with early voting underway, economic concerns have been top of mind for many voters, polls show, possibly directing them toward Republican candidates. Progressives, including Bernie Sanders, have urged Democratic candidates to not to ignore voters’ economic woes even as they center threats to democracy and abortion rights.“It would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered,” he wrote in a recent op-ed for the Guardian. “In poll after poll, Republicans are more trusted than Democrats to handle the economy – the issue of most importance to people. I believe that if Democrats do not fight back on economic issues and present a strong pro-worker agenda, they could well be in the minority in both the House and the Senate next year.”Later this evening, Joe Biden is set to give a speech about threats to democracy.In recent weeks, he has centered in on the message that “democracy is on the ballot” this election. His last primetime speech addressed threats from the “Maga forces” of Donald Trump and his supporters.Tonight, the president “will be very clear tonight that he is speaking to people who don’t agree with him on any issues, who don’t agree on his agenda, but who really can unite behind this idea of this fundamental value of democracy”, White House senior adviser Anita Dunn said today during an event hosted by Axios.He is also expected to address heightened threats against political figures, in the aftermath of a politically motivated attack on Paul Pelosi, House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband. In the spring of this year, Julie Falbaum’s 20-year-old son walked into a frat party filled with about 50 of his peers, holding a stack of petitions. They were for a campaign to protect abortion.“Who wants to be a dad?” he yelled. Like a park-goer throwing bread to pigeons, he chucked the forms around the room and watched as dozens of young men swarmed to sign them.The campaign to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution was already under way here even before Roe fell, and it has become an embittered battle in Michigan – to keep a 90-year-old abortion ban off the books. Campaigners fear that ban would criminalise doctors and pregnant people and deny essential medical care, such as miscarriage medication, now that the constitutional right to abortion no longer exists in the US.The battle in Michigan has brought death threats and vandalism from pro-choice militants. On the anti-abortion side, it has involved dirty tactics from the Republican party, which tried to block a petition brought by nearly 800,000 Michiganders over formatting errors, and has peddled a wide campaign of misinformation.Read more:‘This is a blueprint’: abortion rights ballot proposal takes off in MichiganRead moreIn Arizona, the Republican candidate for governor Kari Lake turned the assault on Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul into a punchline:Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) gets a big laugh from the crowd after joking about Speaker Pelosi’s husband Paul being violently assaulted:“Nancy Pelosi, well, she’s got protection when she’s in D.C. — apparently her house doesn’t have a lot of protection.” pic.twitter.com/8U647UTO9x— The Recount (@therecount) October 31, 2022
      Paul Pelosi was allegedly attacked on Friday by David DePape, who is accused of breaking into their San Francisco home and shouting “where is Nancy?” DePape told investigators he wanted to take the Democratic House speaker hostage and potentially break her kneecaps, and is facing an array of state and federal charges for the assault.The Guardian’s politics live blog is being handed over to Maanvi Singh, who will take you through the remainder of the day, including Joe Biden’s speech on threats to democracy at 7 pm eastern time.America’s largest trade union federation the AFL-CIO has come out in opposition to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, saying working people will bear the brunt of its tighter monetary policy.“The Federal Reserve’s decision today to raise interest rates by .75% will have a direct and harmful impact on working people and our families. The Fed’s actions will not address the underlying causes of inflation—the war in Ukraine, climate change’s effect on harvests and corporate profits, and an increase in the chances that the United States enters a recession,” the federation’s president Liz Shuler said in a statement.“The Fed seems determined to raise interest rates, though it openly admits those rates could ruin our current economy as unemployment remains low and people are able to find jobs.”The AFL-CIO typically supports Democrats, who are increasingly opposed to the Fed’s rate increases, despite the central bank’s explanation that they are necessary to lower inflation in the United States.Yesterday, a coalition of progressive lawmakers including senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren wrote to Fed chair Jerome Powell, questioning the Fed’s strategy.“You continue to double down on your commitment to ‘act aggressively’ with interest rate hikes and ‘keep at it until it’s done,’ even if ‘(n)o one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,’” the lawmakers said.“These statements reflect an apparent disregard for the livelihoods of millions of working Americans, and we are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices that continue to harm families.”The governor’s race in Wisconsin is a dead heat, Marquette Law School found in a poll released today.Both Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and his Republican challenger Tim Michels are at 48% support among likely voters, the survey found. In the Senate race, GOP incumbent Ron Johnson may have an edge over his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, but it’s close, according to the poll. Johnson is at 50% support among likely voters, and Barnes at 48%. The race appears to have tightened up since Marquette’s previous survey conducted from October 3-9, when Johnson polled at 52% support to Barnes’s 46%.Wisconsin is viewed as one of Democrats’ best opportunities to oust a sitting Republican senator, while control of the governor’s mansion may determine whether Wisconsin remains a swing state in future elections, or if Republicans succeeded in their campaign to use gerrymandering and election restrictions to hobble Democrats in the state.Wisconsin’s Democratic governor Tony Evers called his Republican opponent a threat to democracy after he made comments indicating he would consolidate GOP control in the state if elected, The Guardian’s Martin Pengelly reports:The Republican candidate for governor in Wisconsin told supporters at a campaign event that if he is elected his party “will never lose another election” in the state.Tim Michels’ opponent next Tuesday, the incumbent Democrat Tony Evers, said the comment, which was released by a left-leaning group, showed the Republican was “a danger to our democracy”.Michels, a construction company owner, is endorsed by Donald Trump. He has repeated the former president’s lie that his defeat by Joe Biden in 2020 was the result of electoral fraud, and refused to say if he would certify results in a presidential election if he was governor and a Democrat won Wisconsin.In a debate with Evers last month, Michels did not say he would accept the result of his own election. He later said he would.Republican candidates in other swing states have cast doubt on whether they will accept results next week.Fred Wertheimer, president of the non-partisan group Democracy 21, told the Guardian this week: “There’s great danger that the Trump ‘big lie’ is going to spread to states all over the country.“If election deniers lose their elections by narrow margins we can expect that they will reject the results and refuse to accept them.”Republican says party ‘will never lose another election’ in Wisconsin if he winsRead moreIn an attempt to preserve their fragile majorities in the House of Representatives, Democrats this year have spent money to boost far-right Republicans in certain areas, banking that these candidates would be easier for them to defeat in the midterms.In an interview with The Washington Post, Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House, defends the tactic and pins the blame on Republican voters for choosing the more extreme candidate. Democratic congressman Don Beyer, meanwhile, signals discomfort with the strategy:New @PostVideo exclusive:House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told The Post in a recent interview that spending by Democrats amplifying far-right Republican candidates who have questioned or denied the results of the 2020 election does not undermine U.S. democracy. pic.twitter.com/JBGO4YGc4k— JM Rieger (@RiegerReport) November 2, 2022
      The Federal Reserve has once again raised interest rates in a bid to lower the United States’ stubbornly high rate of inflation by tightening the ability of businesses and consumers to borrow money.Inflation has been a major factor in president Joe Biden’s low approval ratings among voters. In the run-up to the central bank’s two-day meeting that concluded today, some Democratic senators had urged its policy setting committee to proceed cautiously or even hold off on another increase, saying rates that are higher than necessary could harm the economy.Here’s more on the Fed’s decision from The Guardian’s Dominic Rushe:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The Federal Reserve stepped up its fight against a 40-year high in US inflation on Wednesday, announcing its fourth consecutive three-quarters of a percentage point hike in interest rates.
      With the cost of living crisis battering consumers and Joe Biden’s political fortunes, Fed officials have now imposed six rate rises in a row, the sharpest increases in interest rates since the 1980s, when inflation touched 14% and rates rose to nearly 20%.
      The Fed’s latest increase brings the federal funds rate – which acts as a benchmark for everything including business loans, credit card and mortgage rates – to between 3.75% and 4% after sitting at 0% for more than a year during the coronavirus pandemic.
      The central bank does not expect inflation or interest rates to reach the levels seen in the 80s. Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed expects rates will reach 4.4% by the end of the year and start coming down until 2024. Fed officials had expected inflation to decline this year.
      But inflation – which the Fed initially dismissed as “transitory” – remains stubbornly high. In September, the costs of goods and services were 8.2% higher compared to a year ago, well above the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2%.Fed announces sixth consecutive hike in US interest rates to fight inflationRead moreSome of the most closely watched races this year are being held in Arizona, where Democrats are fighting to keep hold of a Senate seat, while Republicans have elevated candidates for governor and secretary of state who have promoted baseless conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.For a better understanding of how Donald Trump has transformed the politics of the southwestern state, take a look at this report The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland in Phoenix: More

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      FBI arrests two alleged far-right Boogaloo Boys group members

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      FBI arrests two alleged far-right Boogaloo Boys group members The arrests come amid concerns about the potential for violence around next week’s US midterm elections The FBI has arrested two alleged members of the far-right anti-government group the Boogaloo Boys, as authorities express increasing concern about the potential for violence around next week’s US midterm elections.Timothy Teagan was expected to appear on Wednesday in federal court in Detroit, where charges against him would be unsealed, an FBI spokesperson said.In a criminal complaint filed on Monday, the FBI said there was enough evidence to charge Aron McKillips, of Sandusky, Ohio, with illegal possession of a machine gun and the interstate communication of threats. The complaint said McKillips was a member of the Boogaloo Boys and was believed to be in a militia group called the Sons of Liberty.Penn State students outraged over invitation to far-right Proud Boys founderRead moreMcKillips’s lawyer, Neil McElroy, said he had asked for McKillips to be released pending a 9 November detention hearing in Toledo.Teagan’s arrest on Tuesday came a week before election day. Election workers have been targeted by threats and harassment since the 2020 election, which Donald Trump has refused to admit he lost.Federal authorities have charged at least five people already this year. Election officials are concerned about conspiracy theorists signing up to work as poll watchers. Some groups that have trafficked in lies about the 2020 election are recruiting and training watchers.In Phoenix on Tuesday, a federal judge agreed to put limits on a group monitoring outdoor ballot drop boxes in Arizona.The US district court judge, Michael Liburdi, said he would issue a temporary restraining order against Clean Elections USA and also the Lions of Liberty and the Yavapai County Preparedness team, which are associated with the far-right anti-government Oath Keepers group.Those groups or anyone working with them will be barred from filming or following anyone within 75ft (23 metres) of a ballot drop box or the entrance to a building that houses one. They cannot speak to or yell at individuals within that perimeter unless spoken to first. It is the standard distance maintained around polling sites under Arizona law, but it has typically never applied to drop boxes.The order also prohibited members of the groups or agents working on their behalf from carrying firearms or wearing body armor within 250ft (76 metres) of a drop box.In Michigan, Teagan was among a dozen or so people who openly carried guns while demonstrating in January 2021 outside the state capitol in Lansing. Some promoted the “boogaloo” movement, a slang term that refers to a second US civil war.Teagan told reporters the purpose of the demonstration was “to urge a message of peace and unity to the left and right, to the members of [Black Lives Matter], to Trump supporters to Three Percenter militias to antifa”.Some boogaloo promoters insist they aren’t genuinely advocating for violence. But the movement has been linked to domestic terrorism plots.In the criminal complaint against McKillips, the FBI alleges that he made online threats including one to kill a police officer and another to kill anyone he determined to be a federal informant. The FBI also contends that McKillips provided equipment to convert rifles into machine guns.“I literally handed out machine guns in Michigan,” McKillips said in a recording, the complaint states.In September 2021, he said in a private chat group: “Ain’t got a federal badge off a corpse yet, so my time here ain’t near done yet lol.”In May this year, McKillips and another user in the Signal messaging system threatened to kill a different user in the belief the person was an informant for the FBI or Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the complaint says.In July, McKillips threatened in a Signal group to “smoke a hog”, meaning kill a police officer, if conditions worsened following a fatal police shooting in Akron, it says.McKillips frequently advocated violence against police officers, federal agents, government buildings and stores like Walmart and Target, and even threatened to blow up Facebook headquarters, the complaint says.TopicsFBIThe far rightDetroitMichiganOhioUS elections 2020US midterm elections 2022newsReuse this content More

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      Republican says party ‘will never lose another election’ in Wisconsin if he wins

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      Republican says party ‘will never lose another election’ in Wisconsin if he winsGubernatorial candidate Tim Michels’ comment is ‘a danger to our democracy’, Democrat opponent Tony Evers says The Republican candidate for governor in Wisconsin told supporters at a campaign event that if he is elected his party “will never lose another election” in the state.‘The Trump playbook’: Republicans hint they will deny election resultsRead moreTim Michels’ opponent next Tuesday, the incumbent Democrat Tony Evers, said the comment, which was released by a left-leaning group, showed the Republican was “a danger to our democracy”.Michels, a construction company owner, is endorsed by Donald Trump. He has repeated the former president’s lie that his defeat by Joe Biden in 2020 was the result of electoral fraud, and refused to say if he would certify results in a presidential election if he was governor and a Democrat won Wisconsin.In a debate with Evers last month, Michels did not say he would accept the result of his own election. He later said he would.Republican candidates in other swing states have cast doubt on whether they will accept results next week.Fred Wertheimer, president of the non-partisan group Democracy 21, told the Guardian this week: “There’s great danger that the Trump ‘big lie’ is going to spread to states all over the country.“If election deniers lose their elections by narrow margins we can expect that they will reject the results and refuse to accept them.”The Wisconsin governor’s race remains extremely tight. On Wednesday, the polling website FiveThirtyEight.com gave Michels a 1.6-point lead. The Cook Report, a non-partisan outlet, rated Wisconsin a toss-up.On Tuesday night, the Republican Wisconsin senator Ron Johnson, locked in his own tight fight with the Democrat Mandela Barnes, declined to commit to accepting that result.“We’ll see what happens,” Johnson said. “I mean, is something going to happen on election day? Do Democrats have something up their sleeves?”The Barnes campaign said it would accept the result.A spokesperson for Michels said the candidate’s remark about never losing an election was not an indication the Republican would seek to thwart the will of the people.“While revving up supporters to get out and vote, Tim was referring to winning and leading and then being rewarded by voters for doing a good job,” the spokesperson said.An Evers spokesperson said: “Democracy is on the ballot. Tim Michels has made it clear he will do anything in his power to make it harder for Wisconsinites to vote and could even overturn the fair results of our elections if he doesn’t like the outcome.”TopicsWisconsinUS midterm elections 2022US politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      How Donald Trump's legacy poisoned Arizona’s fragile democracy – video

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      In Arizona, all of the statewide Republican candidates for the midterm elections have falsely claimed the 2020 election result was not legitimate. As these conspiracy theories spread, Oliver Laughland travels to Phoenix to meet Adrian Fontes, the Democrat trying to defeat Trump loyalist and election denier Mark Finchem in the race for secretary of state

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      After the flood: inside the 4 November Guardian Weekly

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      After the flood: inside the 4 November Guardian WeeklyCop27’s climate prospects. Plus: Can the Democrats rescue the US midterms?Get the Guardian Weekly delivered to your home address For readers of the Guardian Weekly magazine’s North American edition this week, the cover focuses on the Democrats’ precarious hopes in the midterm elections. Elsewhere, the spotlight shines on the Cop27 climate summit in Egypt.Cautious optimism followed the last Cop conference in Glasgow, where an international roadmap was agreed to keep the world within 1.5C of global heating. On the eve of this year’s summit, however, a slew of alarming reports have shown that carbon emissions are still rising.Further carbon cuts therefore ought to be a priority, argue scientists. However, Cop27 is likely to be dominated by debate about compensation that poorer nations feel richer countries should be paying for climate damage. Observer science and environment editor Robin McKie sets the scene for a summit that seems engulfed in a storm of its own. And there’s a fascinating report by Mark Townsend on the Just Stop Oil protests, as debate stirs among activists about whether direct action tactics are effective in changing attitudes.The US midterm elections next week could see a Republican party still dominated by Donald Trump gain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. David Smith asks whether an intervention by former president Barack Obama could give a late kickstart to the Democrats’ hopes.Jubilation and relief accompanied Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s narrow election victory in Brazil, ending Jair Bolsonaro’s era of Amazon destruction. Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips reports on a much-needed moment of hope for the region and the world, but Andrew Downie warns that difficult challenges await the returning president-elect.On the culture front there’s an interview by Simon Hattenstone with the actor Damian Lewis, who talks about life after the death of his wife, Helen McCrory. And Jonathan Jones meets the artist David Shrigley, for whom a move to the countryside has not exactly mellowed his anxiety-laden brand of pop art.Get the Guardian Weekly delivered to your home addressTopicsCop27Inside Guardian WeeklyClimate crisisUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsRepublicansUS politicsBrazilReuse this content More

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      Liz Cheney backs second Democrat, picking Ryan over Vance for Ohio Senate

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      Liz Cheney backs second Democrat, picking Ryan over Vance for Ohio SenateLeading anti-Trump Republican has already endorsed Democrat Elissa Slotkin for re-election in Michigan The Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney has now endorsed two Democrats for election in the midterms next week by backing Tim Ryan in his Ohio US Senate race against JD Vance after endorsing Elissa Slotkin for re-election to the US House in Michigan.Michigan Democrat’s lead shows abortion may be the issue that decides midterm racesRead moreIn Cleveland, Ohio, on Tuesday, Cheney told the journalist Judy Woodruff she backed Ryan, currently a Democratic congressman, over Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author and venture capitalist who abandoned criticism of Donald Trump in order to publicly embrace him.“I would not vote for JD Vance,” Cheney said.Asked if she would vote for Ryan if she lived in Ohio, she said: “I would.”In an unexpectedly tight race, the polling website FiveThirtyEight puts Vance two points up.The daughter of the former vice-president Dick Cheney is a stringent conservative but has nonetheless emerged as perhaps the leading anti-Trump Republican. She rose to national prominence as vice-chair of the House January 6 committee, seeking to establish Trump’s guilt regarding the US Capitol attack, but in August lost her primary in Wyoming to a Trump-backed challenger.Speculation continues over whether Cheney will mount a presidential run in 2024, whether for the nomination in a party dominated by Trump or as an independent. She has not confirmed or denied any plans.She has said she will leave the Republican party if Trump is the nominee again.Cheney endorsed Slotkin last week, saying: “While Elissa and I have our policy disagreements, at a time when our nation is facing threats at home and abroad, we need serious, responsible, substantive members like Elissa in Congress.”It was Cheney’s first ever endorsement of a Democrat. She was due to campaign for Slotkin on Tuesday evening.Earlier on Tuesday, Slotkin told CNN: “While we disagree – and I look forward to debating her in the future on issues of policy – on democracy, we are in vehement agreement. We agree on one really big thing and that’s that there has to be a democratic system … It’s pretty important to me.”The endorsement happened, Slotkin said, after the Republican approached the Democrat on the House floor in September.“She just said, ‘Look, if there’s anything I can do to help, you just let me know,’ and I said, ‘Really?’ and she said, ‘Yeah,’ and that began the conversation. So I’m appreciative because it’s again just another point of bravery that I think I really admire about her.”JD Vance playing defense in unexpectedly close Ohio Senate race Read moreBefore entering politics, Slotkin was a CIA analyst under Barack Obama, a Democrat, and George W Bush, the Republican to whom Dick Cheney was vice-president.Slotkin is running in a newly drawn district against a Republican state senator, Tom Barrett, in what has by some measures become the most expensive midterms race.With a week to go until polling day, Slotkin is pinning her hopes on opposition to Republican abortion bans and the supreme court ruling which this summer overturned the constitutional right to abortion. Cheney has said she remains an opponent of abortion rights.On Tuesday, the polling website FiveThirtyEight gave Slotkin a 74% chance of victory.TopicsLiz CheneyUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More