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      Here is what my final polling data says about the US presidential election | John Zogby

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      The final six public polls that have been released pretty much tell the same story as each other and the previous polls in October. The race to become the 47th president of the United States is on a razor-thin margin. Three of those last six polls were actual ties; one has Kamala Harris ahead by three points; the others have Donald Trump up by one point and two points.My own firm, John Zogby Strategies, just released a final survey for our clients of 1,005 decided voters nationwide showing Harris leading with 49.3% of the vote and Trump polling at 45.6% of the vote – a margin, or difference, of 3.7 percentage points.That is close, and even more of a squeeze because of the current relationship of the popular vote to the electoral college. Harris is certain to receive millions of “excess” votes in large states such as California, New York, Illinois and Massachusetts which will beef up her total popular vote nationwide but not do anything for her in key battleground states such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – all of which are too close to call as we approach election day.Harris’s lead in the John Zogby Strategies poll is within the margin-of-sampling error, but it reveals some dynamics that portend changing demographic support for both the Democratic and Republican parties. These are some findings and possible trend lines that not only explain what may happen once the votes are counted, but also suggest possibly significant realignments within both parties.For one, Harris appears to have underperformed with 18- to 29-year-olds nationally; in contrast Trump is leading among them, capturing 47% of the vote, while Harris polls at 45%. Ironically, in our poll, she did best among those over 65 with a 58%-39% margin. Those age cohorts usually produce opposite results, with older voters tending to be more conservative. The gen Z and millennial voters also revealed a huge “gender gap” of well over 60 points between men and women.There is also a substantial “marriage gap”: Trump won married voters by four points – not as big as in 2020 (seven points), but Harris won among non-married people by eight points (51%-43%), not as much as Joe Biden’s 18-point victory, but still enough to see that marital status is a key to how people vote. Notably, married women, who usually tend to be on the conservative side, chose Harris in our poll.Harris leads among voters who identify as independents by 13 points (51% of independents polled say they will vote for her, compared with just 38% saying they will vote for Trump), about the same as Biden, who received 54% of independent votes, compared with Trump getting 41% of their vote in 2020.The candidates chose messages and styles that aimed at different groups of voters. Trump stayed with his dark and isolationist theme, focusing on rallying his base first, then hoping to pick up more moderate independents who feel that the Biden-Harris team have led the US down the wrong path. Harris opted for directing her campaign with an appeal to those who were tired of Trump’s negativity and, at times, bizarre behavior. Her approach appears to have paid off, as she leads with 56% of self-described moderate voters. That puts her 19 points ahead with moderates than Trump, who polls at 37. This was a group that Biden won by 30 points last time.Harris did, as was suggested throughout the year’s polling, underperform in our poll among Black voters (73% said they would vote for her, and 19% said Trump) and Hispanic voters (Trump polls at 48% with Hispanic voters, Harris at 44%), but she is doing much better among white voters – down by only five (she polls at 46% and Trump polls at 51%), compared with Trump’s 17-point victory in 2020, where 58% voted for him and 41% voted for Biden.Harris is down considerably among Catholics (43% back her, compared with 55% backing Trump) and Protestants (36% back her, compared with 59% backing Trump), but scores well among those with no religious affiliation and with atheists. Democrats have been getting 30% or so of born-again evangelical voters in recent elections, but Harris only shows 24% in our poll.Harris not only leads in cities (53% of city-dwellers back her, compared with 43% backing Trump) but also in the suburbs (she was backed by 50% of the suburban voters polled, compared with 44% backing Trump) – the latter powered by a solid performance among suburban women. Biden won both in 2020: he won 60% of votes in cities (while Trump only got 38% of the vote in cities), but barely scraped by in suburbs, where only 50% voted for him, compared with 48% voting for Trump.There is a wide “education gap” in US politics. Harris has the backing of 57% of those with college degrees, compared with 39% for Trump. In 2020, Biden won the same group by 12 points (he received 55% of their vote, while Trump received 43%). Trump leads among those without degrees (50% of voters without college degrees back him, compared with 44% backing Harris). That was 50% for Biden and 48% for Trump last time.The gender gap propels Harris’s lead, with 49% of Trump voters being men versus 43% of Harris voters being men. (In 2020, 45% of Trump voters were men, while 53% of Biden voters were men.) Women back Harris by 12 points, with 55% of women supporting her to 43% supporting Trump (Biden won 57% of women, while Trump only received 42% of the women’s vote). There is in our poll an 18-point gender point gap.All of these “gaps” suggest a very real issues gap between Harris and Trump supporters. For those selecting Harris, the top issues are abortion (45%), the economy/Inflation (39%), democracy (37%) and climate change (19%). For those backing Trump, the top are the economy/inflation (68%), immigration (61%), keeping the US out of war (15%) and crime (14%). Two different worlds.Some key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both hotly contested, will not finish counting ballots until later in the week, and other states likely to be very close will have automatic recounts. It is not likely that we will know who won for a while. Our poll is thus far the only one that polled through Sunday 3 November; we left the lights on longer to try to capture late-breaking trends.

      John Zogby is senior partner at the polling firm of John Zogby Strategies and is author of Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read the Polls and Why We Should More

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      US elections 2024 live updates: Trump launches insults at final rally as Harris ends campaign promising to ‘get to work’

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      In Michigan, Trump then goes on to talk insultingly about President Joe Biden, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and representative Adam Schiff, the lead investigator in Trump’s first impeachment.“Joe Biden in one of his crazy moments said that we were all garbage,” Trump remarked adding “They stole the election from a president,” in apparent reference to Biden’s dropping out of the campaign to be replaced by Harris.He then says of Pelosi “she’s a crooked person … evil, sick, crazy b… oh no! It starts with a ‘b’ but I won’t say it! I wanna say it.”He said of “Adam Shifty Schiff”: “He’s got the biggest head, he’s an unattractive guy both inside and out.”Leading forecaster Nate Silver released his final election forecast overnight – and the race looks almost as tight as it could possibly be. He said that Harris won in 40,012 out of 80,000, or 50.015% of, simulations run using his model.Polls released on Monday found Harris had a marginal lead in Michigan but was tied with Trump in Pennsylvania and other key swing states. Trump maintained a lead over Harris in betting markets, but odds had narrowed somewhat.Silver earned his reputation as a forecasting guru by correctly calling 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He also predicted the outcome of the 2012 and 2020 elections. In 2016, however, he gave eventual winner Trump just a 28.6% chance of becoming president.Yesterday, several US security agencies released a joint statement on foreign interference in the election.The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said they had been observing foreign adversaries, particularly Russia, conducting additional influence operations intended to undermine public confidence in the integrity of US elections and stoke divisions among Americans.The agencies warned that they expect these activities to intensify through election day and in the coming weeks, and that foreign influence narratives will focus on swing states.“Influence actors linked to Russia in particular are manufacturing videos and creating fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of the election, instill fear in voters regarding the election process, and suggest Americans are using violence against each other due to political preferences, judging from information available.“Iran also remains a significant foreign influence threat to US elections. As noted in a prior update, we have assessed that Iran has conducted malicious cyber activities to compromise former president Trump’s campaign.“Iranian influence actors may also seek to create fake media content intended to suppress voting or stoke violence, as they have done in past election cycles.”Donald Trump should concede defeat and “go and play golf” in Scotland if he loses to Kamala Harris, Nigel Farage has said, but added that the Democratic candidate should pardon Trump to “dampen down” the threat of unrest.Farage, a friend of Trump who has spoken at the former president’s rallies in the past, said he hoped Harris would look “magnanimous” if she secured a “clear and decisive” victory.The Reform UK leader is in the US for the election but said he hoped there would be no unrest after the result. Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts and is facing sentencing later in November for falsifying business records over payments to the adult film star Stormy Daniels days before his victorious 2016 election.Farage, who has criticised Labour activists for travelling to campaign for Harris, said: “If she gets in on Tuesday I hope she pardons him. She could look magnanimous and it would dampen down potential tensions.“If it was clear and decisive then maybe it’s time to go and play golf at Turnberry,” he said. “It’s all hypothetical and I still think he is going to win.”Farage attended Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania on Monday, a key swing state where both candidates held rallies the day before the election.An incumbent president stepping down late in the campaign, a guilty verdict in a criminal case for one of the candidates and a couple of assassination attempts – this election campaign has been a wild ride.Here are 15 moments that defined the US election campaign:The influential podcast host Joe Rogan endorsed Donald Trump for president, writing on social media that his choice had been influenced by “the great and powerful Elon Musk”.Musk “makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you’ll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way”, Rogan wrote on X. “For the record, yes, that’s an endorsement of Trump.”Rogan, 57, described recently by Bloomberg as “widely accepted as the most popular podcaster on Earth”, has an overwhelmingly male audience. He recently interviewed Donald Trump on the show, and, as recently as last week, was negotiating for a sit-down with the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, though no interview went ahead.Trump’s interview on Rogan’s show ten days ago currently has 45m views on YouTube, while JD Vance’s interview has 14m views.With a fairly hefty time difference, the US election will play out at different times of the day depending on which side of the pond you are on. Archie Bland breaks down how the race for the White House will unfold for British viewers.Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied with three votes each in the tiny New Hampshire town that traditionally kicks off voting on election day.Since the 1960s, voters in Dixville Notch, close to the Canadian border, have gathered just after midnight to cast their ballots.Votes are then counted and results announced – hours before other states open their polls.According to CNN, four registered Republicans and two undeclared voters took part in the vote just after midnight on Tuesday.Leslie Otten was seemingly the disaffected Republican voter that backed Harris in the six-person ballot. “I’ve been a Republican most of my life, but I find myself in conflict with the Republican Party at this time,” he said. “It’s been loudly said by Trump that I’m now an enemy because I don’t back him.”The Guardian’s video team has made an explainer on the feisty history of US political mudslinging. In it, they argue that the insults didn’t start with Trump:The video is part of It’s Complicated, a new YouTube channel dedicated to all forms of explanatory journalism, helping bring clarity, context and understanding in a complicated world.Streeting also spoke about Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK who was at a Trump rally last night.Farage last night tweeted a clip from the rally where Trump was speaking about their relationship – which perhaps didn’t start as a resounding endorsement of the Reform leader, but ended up there.“We have a man from Europe, I don’t know if he’s here, I saw him backstage.“What he is doing is sort of what we did a few years ago. He’s doing a great job, he’s a fantastic … he’s always been my friend for some reason. He liked me, I liked him and he’s shaking it up pretty good over there. He was the big winner of the last election.”Streeting said of the Reform leader: “To be fair to Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform Party who is currently State-side, he is a firm supporter of Donald Trump.“He was reflecting overnight that whatever some of the noise we’ve heard about, you know that legal action or indeed things that that we said about president Trump in the past, that we’ll be able to work effectively together as partners and and as allies.”The UK government has been working to ensure the “deep ties” that bind the UK and the US will be “as strong as they have ever been”, whatever the outcome of the US election, the UK’s health secretary Wes Streeting said, PA reports.Wes Streeting told LBC Radio: “The prime minister, the foreign secretary and others have been working hard to make sure that whatever the outcome of the US presidential election, the deep ties that bind our two nations are as strong as they have ever been.“I think that is particularly important in a world in which we see war on the continent of Europe, in Ukraine, war in the Middle East, wider geopolitical risks and threats where the US and the UK have common history, but also common cause in terms of the future we want to build, in the future of democracy.“The American people will decide who their president is and we will work with whoever they choose.”He added: “I think it’s fair to say that we may not be ideological bedfellows with President Trump, but if he’s returned as president of the United States, there will be a really good working relationship.“And I think we saw that with the warmth of the exchange between president Trump and the prime minister after they met recently.”US judges have denied requests from the Republican-led states of Missouri and Texas to block the federal government from sending lawyers to their states on election day to monitor compliance with federal voting rights laws, Reuters reports.Both states are among the 27 that the US Justice Department (DOJ) said it would send staff out to monitorvoting locations, as it has done regularly during national elections.Federal judge Matthew Kacsmaryk ordered the DOJ early on Tuesday to confirm that “no observers” would be present in polling locations in Texas but denied issuing the restraining order the state had requested.“The Court cannot issue a temporary restraining order without further clarification on the distinction between ‘monitoring’ and ‘observing’ on the eve of a consequential election,” Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee, said in the ruling.Texas attorney general Ken Paxton had earlier said that sending monitors “infringes on States’ constitutional authority to run free and fair elections.” The lawsuit argued that “under Texas law, the list of persons who may be present in voting locations or central counting stations does not include federal authorities.”District judge Sarah Pitlyk in Missouri also denied that state’s request for a temporary restraining order, saying late last night: “the harms that the State of Missouri anticipates are speculative.”Missouri’s lawsuit had accused the DOJ of making an 11th-hour plan that intended to “displace state election authorities” by sending poll monitors to locations throughout St. Louis.The DOJ said two election monitors were in Missouri to monitor one polling station in St. Louis.While some of the locations the DOJ will monitor on election day include key counties in the seven battleground states expected to help decide the election, it is also sending personnel to other locations such as counties in Massachusetts, Alaska, South Dakota, and New Jersey. Neither Missouri nor Texas are considered among the seven battleground states.AP reports on a tiny Indian village where Kamala Harris has ancestral roots that is praying for her victory.
      There’s little to distinguish the village of Thulasendrapuram from any other rural community in Tamil Nadu, except its connection to a woman who could become America’s first leader with South Asian roots.As millions of Americans vote, Harris has people rooting for her from thousands of miles away in a village surrounded by rice paddies and coconut trees, where her mother’s family has ancestral ties. They talk about her at the local tea shop. Banners and billboards bearing her face are seen throughout the community.“Our deity is a very powerful God. If we pray well to him, he will make her victorious,” said M. Natarajan, the temple priest that led the prayers in front of the image of Hindu deity Ayyanar, a form of Lord Shiva.Harris’ maternal grandfather was born in the village, about 350 kilometers (215 miles) from the southern coastal city of Chennai, more than 100 years ago. As an adult, he moved to Chennai, where he worked as a high-ranking government official until his retirement.Harris has never visited Thulasendrapuram and she has no living relatives in the village, but people here still venerate the family that made it big in the US.“Our village ancestors’ granddaughter is running as a US presidential candidate. Her victory will be happy news for every one of us,” Natarajan said.Harris hasn’t visited India much — particularly not since becoming vice president — but she has often spoken emotionally about her ties to her late mother’s country of birth. On Tuesday, she released a campaign video highlighting her mother, who arrived in the US at age 19 and became a cancer researcher.Titled “Mother,” the video ends with a narrator saying: “This daughter of Shyamala, this daughter of the American story, is ready to lead us forward.”Village residents also prayed for Harris’ victory in 2020, and set off firecrackers when she became the US vice president.
      Last night The Guardian reported that betting markets had narrowed on the eve of the election.The Trump campaign and its supporters had been pointing to Trump’s lead over Harris at leading bookmakers as a more accurate forecast than tight polls that were too close to call in the run up to the election.But the odds have narrowed somewhat, as the below data visualisation shows:The current odds on the Betfair betting exchange still favour Trump – giving him about a 60% chance of winning the election to Harris’ 40%.The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt provides some analysis on Trump’s final rally ahead of the election …Trump said this was his “last rally”, and if that’s true, it was a somewhat ignominious end. More than half the crowd left during a meandering, nearly-two hour long, speech that saw Trump attack Kamala Harris, criticise the thickness of Adam Schiff’s neck, and muse that god may have saved him from an assassin’s bullet so that he could become president.“Kamala, she is a very low IQ person and we don’t need a very low IQ individual. We’ve had that for four years and our country is going down the drain,” Trump said early in his rally, one of a series of typically vicious critiques on his opponent.Trump arrived almost two hours late for the rally, and by the time he started speaking about how divine intervention saved him from an assassination attempt, people had already begun to leave.“Many people say that god saved me in order to save America,” Trump told the crowd. “It’s a beautiful expression and I think it might be true.”Away from the reverie on god, this “last rally” offered up much of the grievance and doom that has characterised Trump’s politics.“Some of the greatest criminals in the world are pouring into our country,” Trump said, mirroring his very first campaign rally, at Trump Tower on June 16 2015.As well as blasting Harris, he called Nancy Pelosi a “crazy horrible human being”, adding: “She’s a sick crazy… oh no… it starts with a b but I won’t say it.”Trump continued: “These are bad people. Adam shifty Schiff. I call him pencil neck.” He said of the California Democrat: “He’s an unattractive guy in and out.”At 2.10am, with the audience bleary eyed, Trump finally left the stage after declaring, without specifics, that he would fix all America’s ills. The now familiar sound of Village People’s YMCA played the former president out, and now only time will tell whether he wins re-election.Donald Trump continued to attack Kamala Harris and gave dark warnings about a dystopian future under the vice-president in the early hours of Tuesday morning.Speaking in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Trump also mused that god may have saved him from an assassin’s bullet so that he could become president, as he claimed that he has a “95% chance or something” of winning the election.Trump has said he will not run for president again, and if this is to be Trump’s last rally, it was a somewhat ignominious end. More than half the crowd left during a meandering, nearly-two hour long, speech that saw Trump attack Nancy Pelosi, criticise the thickness of Adam Schiff’s neck, and demonise immigrants.“Kamala, she is a very low IQ person and we don’t need a very low IQ individual. We’ve had that for four years and our country is going down the drain,” Trump said early in his rally, one of a series of typically vicious critiques on his opponent.“If you vote for lying Kamala you’ll have four more years of misery, failure and disaster our country may never recover from,” Trump added, to loud jeers.Trump arrived almost two hours late for the rally, and by the time he started speaking about how divine intervention saved him from an assassination attempt, people had already begun to leave.This “last rally” offered up much of the grievance and doom that has characterised Trump’s politics.“Some of the greatest criminals in the world are pouring into our country,” Trump said, mirroring his very first campaign rally, at Trump Tower on June 16 2015.That day the then-reality tv host descended on an escalator to announce what was seen as a long shot run for the presidency. He offered grave, racially charged warnings about immigration, characterised cities as crime-addled hellholes, made vague, hyperbolic promises about how only he could fix the country, and launched vicious attacks on political rivals.Fast forward November 2024, and little has changed.As well as blasting Harris, he called Nancy Pelosi a “crazy horrible human being”, adding: “She’s a sick crazy… oh no… it starts with a b but I won’t say it.”At 2am, as the rally drew to a close, he returned to the dark motifs that have been such a hallmark of his political career. Trump’s first rally and his last rally may have been nine years apart. But at this final event, held hours before voting begins in what could be one of the most consequential elections in modern history, it was clear that little has changed.Kamala Harris welcomed a slew of celebrities to her rallies in the closing moments of the election campaign, PA reports.Oprah Winfrey, Katy Perry, Will.i.am, Lady Gaga, Jon Bon Jovi and Christina Aguilera were among the superstars lending their voices to support Harris.Lady Gaga was one of the stars who performed at Harris’ multi-city rally on the evening before the election, where she sang God Bless America before warning the audience “the country is depending on you”.Meanwhile, talk show host Winfrey said she travelled across the country to appear at the rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, wearing a t-shirt that read “Yes she can”.“If we don’t show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again,” the TV star warned.Black Eyed Peas singer Will.i.am performed his Harris endorsement song titled “Yes she can”, which includes the lyrics: “So register and vote for your life, do it for your daughters and your sons and your wife.”It came moments after Gaga’s performance at the rally, where she told the crowd: “For more than half of this country’s life, women did not have a voice … But tomorrow, women will be a part of making this decision.”“Today, I am holding in my heart all the tough, tenacious women who made me who I am. I cast my vote for someone who will be a president for all Americans.”Crowd size has been a persistent talking point for Trump, right from the beginning of his political career more than eight years ago. But Democrats have recently been mocking him over his obsession, pointing out that people have been leaving his lengthy rallies early and that seats at some rallies have been empty. AP has this report:
      Donald Trump has spent nearly a decade bragging about his crowds. Lately, he’s been making the same boasts to swaths of empty seats.In his third presidential bid, Trump for the first time is facing an opponent who stages her own massive rallies, calling further attention to the fact that his crowds, however enthusiastic they are, sometimes have failed to fill large venues and often thinned out as he spoke.In North Carolina this weekend, the former president and Republican nominee spoke at First Horizon Coliseum in Greensboro, where the lower level of the 22,000-seat arena remained unfilled, with the upper level blocked off altogether.“We’ve had the biggest rallies in history of any country. Every rally’s full,” he falsely claimed anyway. “You don’t have any seats that are empty.”He began Monday, the eve of the election, in Raleigh, North Carolina, where a late-arriving crowd came close to filling the venue but left a smattering of empty seats. In Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump took the stage in Santander Arena, where there were sections of empty seats in the 7,200-seat arena. The campaign hung a large American flag near the back of the arena, blocking the view of several seating sections that remained unfilled.He then went to PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, where the upper level seating was again blocked off.The former president’s crowds still routinely number in the thousands and they roared regularly as he spoke. And his supporters this year remain engaged enough that his final event in Grand Rapids, Michigan, was inside a packed arena even though it started after 12:15 am Tuesday, nearly two hours late. Some rallygoers told a reporter they arrived at 7 am the day before.But the occasional scenes of empty seats offered a notable contrast to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ biggest events this fall — and to the volume and vibe of Trump’s crowds eight years ago when he sought and won the presidency for the first time … The former reality television star and consummate showman clearly remains invested in the performative aspect of presidential politics and obviously concerned that Harris, unlike Democrats Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020, can match and even exceed his signature campaign tactic. Harris, for example, recently filled the large coliseum in Greensboro. More

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      Trials, drop-outs and assassination attempts: 15 moments that defined the US election campaign

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      It has been called the most critical election in US history, and it has certainly been one of the wildest races, with an incumbent president stepping down late in the campaign, a criminal guilty verdict for one of the candidates and a couple of assassination attempts. We revisit the key moments, played out against the backdrop of two seismic global conflicts, of a political struggle that holds American democracy itself in the balance.1. The challengersThe hard-right Florida governor Ron DeSantis was widely seen as the Republican most likely to prevent former president Donald Trump from becoming the party’s nominee for a third consecutive election. However, in January, despite being backed by the tycoon Rupert Murdoch, DeSantis ends his flailing campaign – and eventually endorses Trump, whose team had smeared him as “Pudding Fingers” due to his alleged eating habits. Running almost as an incumbent, Trump’s last serious challenger ends up being the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who, against all expectations, takes on the mantle of the anti-Trump vote. Casting doubt on Trump’s mental fitness and his loyalty to the US constitution, the former UN ambassador garners significant support – and perseveres until Super Tuesday in March, when she finally stands aside, leaving Trump the last major candidate standing for the 2024 Republican nomination.View image in fullscreen2. The presidentIn the annals of American politics, incumbent presidents seeking re-election typically enjoy a significant edge over their challengers. However, Joe Biden – the country’s oldest president – bucks the trend as his meandering remarks, frequent misspeaking of names and halting speech raise concerns that he might just be too old to take on Trump again. Nevertheless, essentially unopposed, the 46th president of the United States runs the board in the Democratic primaries and is named the party’s candidate for 2024, while vowing that, despite his advancing years, he remains the most capable contender to defeat Trump once again.View image in fullscreen3. The trialThe first real jolt of the election campaign arrives on 30 May, when a jury of 12 New Yorkers makes Trump the first ex-president in American history to become a convicted felon. They find him guilty of committing a crime – 34 of them, in fact – when he falsified business records to disguise $130,000 in hush-money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels, to hide the scandal from American voters on the eve of the 2016 election. It is far from Trump’s only legal woe: at various times he has faced more than 90 criminal counts, including racketeering charges in Georgia for a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results, where he marked another milestone: the first mugshot of an American president. (That case itself later takes a dramatic turn when the district attorney, Fani Willis, is revealed to have had an affair with a prosecutor she hired, and the case remains on hold while a judge considers whether to disqualify her.) Separately, in February, a federal judge orders Trump to pay $83.3m to the writer E Jean Carroll, who had sued for defamation after Trump publicly disputed that he had sexually assaulted her – an accusation the judge ruled was “substantially true”. Many of the other cases remain in limbo while Trump pursues his well-worn legal tactic: delay, delay, delay.View image in fullscreen4. The debateBiden’s performance in the opening presidential debate against Trump on 27 June in Atlanta is perhaps one of the worst in American history. Shaky, raspy-voiced and slack-jawed, his disastrous showing is punctuated by repeated stumbles over words, uncomfortable pauses and at least one point where he trails off before claiming: “We finally beat Medicare.” Top Democratic figures and donors panic, while recriminations swirl about the role of his campaign and of the media in failing to adequately account for his apparently declining mental fitness. The drumbeat for Biden, 81, to step aside becomes increasingly relentless, as Democratic strategists finally join average voters in questioning whether the party might yet swap him out for a younger standard bearer to face off against Trump.View image in fullscreen5. The immunity rulingOn 1 July, the supreme court drops a bombshell of its own: it rules Trump at least partly immune from criminal prosecution for anything he did in his “official capacity” as president. The decision, a major victory for Trump, destroys the likelihood of a criminal trial for Trump over trying to subvert the 2020 election occurring before the new election in November 2024. It is also the latest example of what most observers agree is the rightwing capture of the supreme court that Trump himself made possible by appointing three arch-conservative judges. Having already overturned Roe v Wade – a monumental victory for the anti-abortion movement, for which Trump proudly claims credit, that made abortion a huge issue in the 2022 midterms and now the 2024 election – the conservatives had caused even more furore in May when photos proved an upside down flag flew outside the home of Justice Samuel Alito, a symbol of support for Trump’s “Stop the Steal” movement that was prominent at the January 6 riot. Since the immunity ruling, the special counsel Jack Smith has hit back, filing a new indictment with more streamlined allegations; Trump in return has promised to fire Smith “within two seconds” if he wins re-election.6. The shootingOn 13 July, during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump is shot and wounded in his upper right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who fires eight bullets with an AR-15-style rifle from the rooftop of a nearby building. As security agents cover the president, he stands with a raised fist and shouts: “Fight, fight, fight”, in what becomes an instantly iconic photograph and moment. The shooting claims the life of one attendee, and two others are left in critical condition; Crooks is killed by security agents. Just nine weeks later, on 15 September, Trump is allegedly the target of a second aspiring assassin at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, where Secret Service agents find Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, hiding in the bushes with a rifle. As well as setting off a crisis in the Secret Service, the events give Trump a rallying cry for his re-election effort: he appears at the Republican national convention days after the Butler shooting wearing an ear bandage, to a rapturous welcome.7. The withdrawalAt 1.46pm on 21 July, Biden announces he will no longer seek re-election – ending weeks of fevered speculation and mounting pressure from lawmakers, donors, activists and voters terrified of his inability to beat Trump. A key intervention comes from the actor and Democratic fundraiser George Clooney: “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” he writes. Biden’s longtime political ally and ex-House speaker Nancy Pelosi also plays a crucial role in limiting the president’s legacy to one term in what she says is a “cold calculation” for the sake of the country – and later tells the Guardian she has not spoken to her old friend since.8. The coronationTaking the stage in Chicago on 23 August to a thunderous standing ovation, the vice-president, Kamala Harris, with the full-throated support of Biden, officially accepts the Democratic presidential nomination, making her the first Black woman to lead a major party ticket. Harris declares the upcoming election an opportunity for the country to “chart a new way forward” and encourages voters to write the “next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told”. The impact is immediate and dramatic: she goes on to raise more than $1bn in less than three months, a record, and draws boisterous crowds to energetic rallies where she focuses on reproductive rights, economic help for the middle class and safeguarding US democracy.9. The wildcardRobert F Kennedy Jr, the scion of the most famous Democratic family whose independent campaign for president had at times reached as high as 10% in national polling, drops out. Kennedy had faced a string of scandals, including accusations he had assaulted a former babysitter. He also admitted that, yes, it was him who dumped a bear carcass in Central Park in a case that had mystified New Yorkers a decade earlier. After dropping out, the environmental campaigner turned vaccine skeptic then plays both sides – reportedly making overtures to Harris in August to discuss endorsing her in exchange for a job, then opting to back Trump, who has allegedly offered Kennedy control over the health agencies. Among third-party candidates still running are the environmentalist Jill Stein, who also stood as the Green party’s candidate in 2012 and 2016, the progressive activist Cornel West, and Chase Oliver of the Libertarian party.10. The running matesIn July, the Ohio senator JD Vance formally accepts Trump’s offer to run as his vice-presidential nominee – a dramatic change of position for Vance, the author of the hit memoir Hillbilly Elegy who once described himself as a “never Trumper” and called his new boss “America’s Hitler”. But if there is one quote for which JD Vance will be remembered in history, it is his controversial definition of leading Democrats: “A bunch of childless cat ladies,” he told the Fox News host Tucker Carlson in 2021. On the other side of the aisle, Harris chooses the Minnesota governor Tim Walz, a native of rural Nebraska who was a teacher and high school football coach and served in the National Guard for 24 years before entering politics. Walz captures national attention with a surprisingly effective takedown of Republicans: “These guys are just weird.”View image in fullscreen11. The billionaireThe wealthiest man on the planet formally declares what most people had suspected after he bought Twitter and turned it into the more extreme X: he is a full-fledged cheerleader for Trump. First endorsing Trump after the assassination attempt, and then dancing and leaping on stage at a Trump rally, the boss of Tesla, Space X and several other companies takes to the newest of his many jobs with a gusto that shames even the most politically active billionaires. Musk becomes everything from a Trump policy adviser to a mega-donor and (through his America Pac campaign group) a leading figure in the Republican “ground game”, its effort to get voters to the polls. In October, he also begins giving away $1m a day to Pennsylvanians who are registered voters – causing a judge to demand his presence in court for running an “illegal lottery”. To those who ask what’s in it for Musk, observers point to billions in federal contracts and Trump promising him a role in helping gut regulators.View image in fullscreen12. The debate 2.0On 11 September, Harris outperforms Trump in their first debate, appearing to vindicate Biden’s decision to gracefully bow out and marking a dramatic change in fortune as she takes a slight polling lead over Trump – though the polls essentially remain tied for the remainder of the race. However, it isn’t Harris’s victory that most attracts headlines from the debate, but the former president’s claim about immigrants from Haiti: “In Springfield, they are eating the dogs,” Trump said. “They are eating the cats. They are eating the pets of the people that live there.” Quickly immortalized in a viral song, the statement – an obvious and quickly debunked lie – appears at first to hurt the Republicans, but far from repudiating it Trump and Vance begin repeating it as part of an anti-immigrant focus that the campaign embraces as its driving principle, including a promise to carry out the largest mass deportation in US history.13. The celebsIf Trump can rely on the support of the world’s richest man, Harris can count on that of its biggest-selling recording artist. In a post on Instagram minutes after the debate, Taylor Swift endorses Harris, encouraging her fans to register to vote and signing it “Childless Cat Lady”, a reference to Vance’s slur. She is hardly alone: Charli XCX had already set off a series of pro-Harris internet memes by tweeting “kamala IS brat” – referring to a lifestyle inspired by noughties excess and rave culture, as well as the name of her hit album Brat – and eventually Beyoncé, Eminem (whose hit Lose Yourself was rapped by Barack Obama at a Detroit rally where the superstar told his home city to “use your voice” for Harris) and dozens more pop stars back Harris. From actors such as Robert De Niro – who clashes with Trump supporters outside the ex-president’s hush money trial in New York – and the cast of Marvel’s Avengers movies, or athletes such as LeBron James (“When I think about my kids and my family and how they will grow up, the choice is clear to me”), most of the highest-profile celebrity endorsements have gone to Harris – though Trump can boast Hulk Hogan, Dr Phil and Kid Rock in his camp.14. The rallyAnger and vitriol take center stage at New York’s Madison Square Garden as Trump and a cabal of acolytes hold a rally marked by racist comments, coarse insults and threats about immigrants. The rally features nearly 30 speakers, with some of them making a series of racist remarks about Latinos, Black Americans and Jewish citizens. “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Tony Hinchcliffe says, among other controversial remarks including singling out a Black man in a remark about watermelons. In the hours following, Democrats, celebrities and Hispanic groups on both sides of the political aisle condemn the comments as “offensive” and “derogatory”, with many voters of Puerto Rican heritage saying they will change their votes to Harris – potentially a key voting bloc in the swing state of Pennsylvania. The event had already drawn comparisons to an infamous Nazi rally held at the arena in 1939, with the Democratic National Committee projecting images on the outside of the building repeating claims from Trump’s former chief of staff that he had “praised Hitler” – and although Vance dismisses the comparison, many note it was only in 2016 that Vance himself had suggested Trump could become “America’s Hitler”.15. The final pitchesThe days leading up to election day are always the most frenzied, and the 2024 race is no exception, with the candidates trading insults and billions of people around the world glued to the latest polls, which do not show a clear lead for either Trump or Harris. With the White House illuminated behind her, Harris draws a crowd of more than 75,000 people in Washington DC, referring to Trump as “another petty tyrant” who had stood in the same spot nearly four years ago and, in a last-gasp effort to cling to power, helped incite the mob that stormed the US Capitol. Meanwhile, Trump continues to smear immigrants and arrives at a rally in a garbage truck, a stunt to attack Democrats. Police chiefs and sheriffs across the country brace for potential violence targeting election workers, disruptions at polling locations and harassment of voters, while unfounded allegations of voter fraud prompt fears that Trump could, once more, refuse to accept the results if he loses – and this time get millions of Americans to do the same. More

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      Americans head to polls with historic election on a knife edge

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      Election day has arrived in America, with tens of millions of voters set to head to the polls on Tuesday in one of the closest and most consequential contests in modern US history.The Democrat Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, appear locked in a knife-edge contest with hardly any daylight between the pair in national opinion polls that have barely budged in weeks.In the seven crucial swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina – the picture was the same. Recent polling has been unable to discern a clear pattern or advantage for either Harris or Trump in this electoral battleground, though most experts agree that whoever wins the Rust belt state of Pennsylvania is likely to have a clear advantage.“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole ball of wax,” Trump, 78, said at a rally in Reading, in the state’s southeast corner, during a frenetic final day of campaigning in the state. Later, in Pittsburgh, he framed the election as a choice between “a golden age of America” if he returns to the White House or “four more years of misery, failure and disaster” under Harris.Harris, 60, spent all of Monday in Pennsylvania and finished in Philadelphia, where she was joined by singer Lady Gaga and TV personality Oprah Winfrey, who warned of the threat that Trump poses to democracy. “We don’t get to sit this one out,” Winfrey said. “If we don’t show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again.”It is the swing states that will decide the election, because under the complex American political system, the result is decided not by the national popular vote but an electoral college in which each state’s number of electors is weighed roughly by the size of its population. Each candidate needs 270 votes in the electoral college to clinch victory, and the battleground is formed of those states where polls indicate a state could go either way.More than 78m early ballots have been cast but the result may not be quickly known. With polling so tight, full results in the crucial swing states are unlikely to be available on Tuesday night and may not even emerge on Wednesday, leaving the US and the wider world on tenterhooks as to who may emerge as America’s next president.The election brings to an end a remarkable and in many ways unprecedented election campaign that has deeply divided American society and upped the stress levels of many of its citizens amid warnings of civil unrest, especially in a scenario where Harris wins and Trump contests the result.Harris has consistently centered her campaign on the autocratic threat that Trump represents. In her final big signature event, Harris staged a rally of 75,000 supporters on the Ellipse in Washington – the spot where Trump helped encourage his supporters to attack the Capitol on 6 January 2021.“On day one, if elected, Donald Trump would walk into that office with an enemies list. When elected, I will walk in with a to-do list full of priorities on what I will get done for the American people,” Harris told the crowd.Harris’ campaign has tried to represent a page turning on the Trump era and threat of his return to the White House. She has acknowledged that calling Trump a fascist is a fair reflection of his political beliefs and the intentions of his movement, while insisting that she represents a choice that will serve all sides of America’s deeply fractured political landscape.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump, meanwhile, has run a campaign fueled by a sense of deep grievance, both personal, at his legal travails, and the perception among many of his supporters of an ailing America that is under threat from the Democrats. That sense of victimhood has been fueled by lies and conspiracy theories that have baselessly painted Biden and Harris as far-left figures who have wrecked the American economy with high inflation and an obsession with identity politics.Trump has also put immigration and border security at the heart of his campaign pitch, painting a picture of America as overrun with crime caused by illegal immigration that has often veered into outright racism and fear-mongering. He has referred to undocumented immigrants as “animals” with “bad genes” who are “poisoning the blood of our country”.The huge divisions between the two campaigns and the language used by candidates – especially Trump and his allies – have led to widespread fears of violence or unrest as voting day plays out and especially as the count goes on. In the run-up to election day, ballot drop boxes used for early voting were destroyed in several US states.At the same time, however, it was Trump himself who was the subject of two assassination attempts during the campaign. At a rally in Pennsylvania, an assassin’s bullet grazed his ear and at a golf course in Florida, a gunman lay in wait for an ambush, only to be foiled by an eagle-eyed Secret Service agent before he could open fire. Neither shooter seemed coherently politically motivated or definitively aligned with one side or another.Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:

      US election 2024 live updates: latest polls, results and news

      When do polls close?

      How the electoral college works

      Where is abortion on the ballot?

      Senate and House races to watch

      Lessons from the key swing states

      Trump v Harris on key issues

      What’s at stake in this election

      What to know about the US election More

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      How the US elections will unfold overnight for British viewers

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      By late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday, we may know who is going to be the next president of the United States. Or we may know that we don’t yet know. Or we may know who’s been projected as the winner but be bracing ourselves for weeks of legal action and protest. It’s going to be that sort of night.A reminder of the basics: whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is the next president will be decided by the electoral college, rather than a straight count of the national vote – meaning that the winner will be the person who gets to a simple majority of 270 of the 538 electors on offer across the 50 states, whether or not they get more votes than their opponent nationwide.That means that the result is quite likely to come down to who prevails in the seven battleground states identified by both sides as being up for grabs – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, as are 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate. There are also 13 state and territorial governorships to be decided.In the UK, the election will be covered across the BBC (including radio), ITV, Channel 4, Sky News and various others. You can get CNN’s US coverage by signing up on its website; it’s also available on Sky. The Guardian live blog is also running, obviously.Here is a guide to how the night will unfold. UK residents determined to stick around to the bitter end, whenever that might be, should consider getting some sleep at 8pm or 9pm, and setting alarms (at least six, at three-minute intervals) for midnight or 1am, since not much will happen before then anyway. But pace yourself. For all that we talk about election night, any of the key races – or several of them – could take well into the next day, or longer, to produce a clear result.10pm UK (5pm Eastern Time): exit polls give contextVoting ends in Indiana and most of Kentucky, but neither is in play. Meanwhile, the first batch of exit polls are released. Unlike in the UK, where exit polls are usually a decent guide to the final outcome, the American version offers only a tantalising hint of what may be in store: rather than providing a projection of final results on the basis of asking people at polling stations how they voted, they give a view of what respondents have said the issues that mattered the most to them were.They’re based on a bigger sample than typical polls – numbering in the tens of thousands – so they ought to give pretty robust findings. But knowing that voters were motivated by the economy or abortion, for example, will only be a clue to how the night might go, rather than a basis for projecting the result.Midnight UK/7pm ET: Georgia and North Carolina – the first cluesPolls close in nine states over the next hour. Don’t just follow the running count of electoral college votes to get a sense of how it’s going, though: Trump is expected to have the biggest tally coming out of this first batch, however his night is going.But polls also close in the first battleground states that could give a major indication of what’s happening: Georgia and North Carolina. Just as importantly, we may start to see whether any clear pattern is emerging that holds true across different states, and therefore provides evidence of what could happen elsewhere.We don’t know when any of the states will be called, and even the results in Georgia and North Carolina may not be known for hours – or, and let’s hope not, days – yet. It’s possible that broadcasters and the Associated Press will start to call some states that haven’t even finished counting if they conclude that the other side has no chance of catching up but the closer the race the longer it may take.(When we talk about states being “called”, we mean that major news organisations have examined the data and reached a conclusion that it is statistically impossible for the other side to win. Official declarations can take much longer.)1am UK/8pm ET: Oh God, it’s PennsylvaniaPolls close in about half the country – so any nationwide patterns should be becoming clear. But it’s Pennsylvania that matters most. With more electoral votes – 19 – than any other swing state, and polls suggesting that it’s the closest race in the country, this is a huge moment. If Trump wins, tell your friends that it was madness for Harris not to pick the state’s popular Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate; if Harris wins, you can muse that the insults hurled towards the state’s 470,000 Puerto Ricans at a recent Trump rally might have made the difference.Again, the polls closing doesn’t necessarily mean a quick declaration. In Pennsylvania, rules against counting mail-in ballots before polls close are likely to slow things down. So it might end up being one of the later races to be called among the key states. It took four days in 2020.Whenever they come, if Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina all go in one candidate’s favour, it will be very difficult for the other to win. If we don’t get that sort of news by now, find some caffeine or a cocktail and pin your eyelids to your forehead: we might be in for a long night.2am UK/9pm ET: Three more battleground statesIn this hour, polls will close in 15 states, including three of the four remaining battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. But Wisconsin wasn’t called until after 2pm the following day in 2016 or 2020. Arizona took more than a week in 2020, and there are more onerous rules in place around the count this time.It was around now in 2016 – 2.29am, to be precise – that AP called the race for Trump, with Clinton calling to concede a few minutes later In 2020, the result wasn’t called for four more days (the following Saturday).Another interesting state to watch now: Iowa, where a shock poll at the weekend gave Harris a lead of three points in a state generally assumed to be a sure thing for Trump, who won it at the last two elections. If that bears out in reality, it probably won’t make a difference to the overall outcome – but only because it is likely to indicate that Harris has had a better night than expected in other similar states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.By now, Trump is likely to have a solid-looking lead in the running electoral college count you’ll probably see on screen – but that is expected to start whittling down as polls close in big, solid blue states, including New York and California, from this point. But if and when those six swing states where polls have closed by now are called, it’s very likely that the result will be apparent.3am UK/10pm ET: NevadaPolls close in Nevada, the last swing state, this hour. It’s unlikely that its six electoral college votes will be decisive but if they are, things are probably going to feel uncertain for a while yet. It took 88 hours to call the state in 2020.Another question will be whether either candidate comes out to speak to their supporters, and when. Everything Trump has said suggests that it is very unlikely that he will concede defeat on election night, except in the unlikely event of a landslide against him. (In 2020, he made a speech at the White House at 2.21am ET in which he made his first false claims of electoral fraud.)The tone he and Harris strike in these hours and afterwards will give a sense of whether the result is going to be accepted all round – or if we could be in for a much more febrile period.4am/11pm ET: California, Alaska and everything afterThe last polls close over the next two hours and, while it is just about theoretically possible that it could all come down to Alaska, I wouldn’t bet your house on it. What seems significantly more likely is: whatever the candidates have said, if the race looks close, lawyers for both sides will be gearing up for court challenges in key states – while pro-Trump poll watchers and other supporters are likely to be making numerous claims of election interference.Last time around, exhaustive legal processes found similar claims to be without foundation but that doesn’t mean they won’t be repeated. It is entirely possible that we will have a clear call of a result from the major networks by this time – but that everything will still appear to be in flux. More

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      Tuesday briefing: Hour by hour, what to expect as the results roll in

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      Good morning. This time tomorrow, we may know who’s going to be the next president of the United States. Or we may know that we don’t yet know. Or we may know who’s projected to win, but be bracing ourselves for weeks of enervating legal action and protest. It’s going to be that sort of night, I’m afraid.There’s been a bit of a sense in the last few days that momentum has been shifting towards Kamala Harris, but most respected polling dorks are treating that narrative with the same caution they viewed the one before that, which suggested a rush towards Donald Trump. The smart way to approach it is to remember that there is literally no need to make a prediction because we will have actual numbers very soon, and then get into a flotation tank and stick on some Sigur Rós.Today’s newsletter is your cut-out-and-keep guide to the night. If you were shockingly thinking of sleeping through it, we’ll be with you first thing tomorrow with the very latest – and it is eminently possible we won’t be bringing you decisive news. Whatever happens, if you’d like to help the Guardian keep covering US politics and everything else without fear or favour, please consider supporting us. Here are the headlines.Five big stories

      Education | University tuition fees in England are to go up for the first time in eight years, taking annual payments up to a record £9,535 per student, the government has announced. The inflation-linked rise, amid warnings of a deepening financial crisis in the sector, was coupled with an increase in student maintenance loans.

      Conservatives | Kemi Badenoch has appointed Robert Jenrick shadow justice secretary, with Mel Stride shadow chancellor and Priti Patel shadow foreign secretary, as she began to put together a frontbench team. But there were questions over whether Jenrick, who lost to Badenoch in the leadership contest, had initially sought another post.

      Brazil | Federal police in Brazil have formally charged the alleged mastermind of the murders of Dom Phillips and Bruno Pereira in the Amazon, accusing him of arming and funding the criminal group responsible for the crime.

      Social care | Care workers from countries such as India, Nigeria and the Philippines who faced losing their immigration status in the UK if they left their employers have been promised new protections under the migrant care workers charter.

      UK news | A teenager has been remanded in custody after he appeared in court charged with attempting to murder a 13-year-old girl and possessing a samurai sword. The 14-year-old was arrested after a girl was found with life-threatening injuries near Hull on Friday morning.
      In depth: What will happen, when and whereView image in fullscreenIf you’re only really tuning in to the detail today, David Smith’s Q&A is a great place to get up to speed. An obligatory reminder of the basics: whether Trump or Harris is the next president will be decided by the electoral college rather than a straight count of the public vote – meaning that the winner will be the person who gets to a majority of 270 of the 538 electors on offer across the 50 states, whether or not they get more votes than their opponent nationwide. Here’s a more detailed explainer on how it works.That means the result is quite likely to come down to who prevails in the seven battleground states identified by both sides as being up for grabs: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, as are 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate. There are also 13 state and territorial governorships to be decided.If you’re based in the US, interested enough to be reading this and still not sure how to watch it on TV, you may be beyond help, to be honest. In the UK, it will be covered across the BBC (including radio), ITV, Channel 4, Sky News and various others. You can get CNN’s US coverage by signing up on its website; it’s also available on Sky. Mark Brown has more information on the broadcasts here – and the Guardian live blog will also be running, obviously.Here’s a guide to how the night will unfold. UK residents determined to stick around to the bitter end, whenever that might be, should consider getting some sleep at 8pm or 9pm, and setting alarms (let’s say … six? At three minute intervals) for midnight or 1am, since not much will happen before that anyway. But pace yourself. For all that we talk about election night, any of the key races – or several of them – could take well into the next day, or longer, to produce a clear result.10pm UK/5pm Eastern Time | Exit polls give contextVoting ends in Indiana and most of Kentucky, but neither is in play. Meanwhile, the first batch of exit polls are released. Unlike in the UK, where exit polls are usually a decent guide to the final outcome, the American version offers only a tantalising hint of what may be in store. Rather than providing a projection of final results on the basis of asking people at polling stations how they voted, they ask respondents about the issues that matter to them most.They’re based on a bigger sample than typical polls – numbering in the tens of thousands – so they ought to give pretty robust findings. But knowing that voters were motivated by the economy or abortion, for example, will only be a clue to how the night might go, rather than a basis for projecting the result.Midnight UK/7pm ET | Georgia and North CarolinaPolls close in nine states over the next hour. Don’t just follow the running count of electoral college votes to get a sense of how it’s going, though: Trump is expected to have the biggest tally coming out of this first batch however well his night’s going, because five of the nine are firmly in his column, and represent more electoral college votes. Harris’s biggest, safest states like New York and California come later.But polls also close in the first states that could give a major indication of what’s happening: Georgia and North Carolina. Just as importantly, we may start to see whether any clear pattern is emerging that holds true across different states, and therefore provides evidence of what could happen elsewhere.Confusingly, the fact that the result is uncertain that doesn’t mean it’s definitely going to be close. By the end of this hour, if there has been a major polling error in either direction, we could have a sense of it. If it’s a surprise blowout for either candidate, we’ll know pretty quickly. Even a “normal” polling error of two or three points produced consistently across the country would mean a decisive result, and the first signs of that around now. But it’s also possible everything will still be on the line for a long time yet.We don’t know when any of the states will be called, and the results in Georgia and North Carolina may not be known for hours – or, and let’s hope not, days – yet. It’s possible that broadcasters and the Associated Press (AP) will start to call states that haven’t finished counting around now if they conclude that the other side has no chance of catching up, but the closer the race, the longer it may take.(When we talk about states being “called”, we mean that major news organisations have examined the data and reached a conclusion that they feel it is statistically impossible for the other side to win. Official declarations can take much longer.)1am UK/8pm ET | Oh God, it’s PennsylvaniaPolls close in about half the country – so any nationwide patterns should be becoming clear. But it’s Pennsylvania that matters most. With more electoral votes – 19 – than any other swing state, and polls suggesting that it’s the closest race in the country, this is a huge moment. (This dispatch from Joan E Greve and Sam Levine gives you a flavour of how tense things have been.) If Trump wins, tell your friends that it was madness for Harris not to pick the state’s popular Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate; if Harris wins, you can muse that the insults hurled towards the state’s 470,000 Puerto Ricans at a recent Trump rally might have made the difference.Again, the polls closing doesn’t necessarily mean a quick declaration. In Pennsylvania, rules against counting mail-in ballots before polls close are likely to slow things down. So it might end up being one of the later races to be called among the key states. It took four days in 2020.Whenever they come, if Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina all go in one candidate’s favour, it will be very difficult for the other to win – partly because of the electoral college arithmetic and partly because that would suggest that late-deciding voters may well have broken in similar numbers elsewhere. If we don’t get that sort of news by now, find some caffeine or a cocktail and pin your eyelids to your forehead, because we might be in for a long night.2am UK/9pm ET | Three more battleground statesIn this hour, polls will close in 15 more states, including three of the four remaining battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. But in 2016 and 2022 Wisconsin wasn’t called until after 2pm the following day. Arizona took more than a week in 2020, and there are more onerous rules in place around the count this time.It was around this time in 2016 – 2.29am, to be precise – that AP called the race for Trump, with Hillary Clinton calling to concede a few minutes later; in 2020, the result wasn’t called until the following Saturday.Another interesting state to watch in this hour: Iowa, where a shock poll at the weekend, by a usually reliable pollster, gave Harris a lead of three points in a state generally assumed to be a sure thing for Trump. If that bears out in reality, it probably won’t make a difference to the overall outcome – but only because it is likely to indicate that Harris has had a better night than expected in other similar states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.3am UK/10pm ET | NevadaPolls close in Nevada, the last swing state, this hour. It’s unlikely that its eight electoral college votes will be decisive, but if they are, things are probably going to feel uncertain for a while yet. It took 88 hours to call the state in 2020.Another question will be whether either candidate comes out to speak to their supporters, and when. Everything Trump has said suggests that it is very unlikely that he will concede defeat on election night, except in the unlikely event of a landslide defeat. (In 2020, he made a speech at the White House at 2.21am ET, in which he made his first false claims of electoral fraud.)The tone he and Harris strike in these hours and afterwards will give a sense of whether the result is going to be accepted all round – or if we could be in for a much more febrile period.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion4am/11pm ET | California, Alaska and everything afterThe last polls close over the next two hours, and while it is just about theoretically possible that it could all come down to Alaska, I wouldn’t bet your house on it. It seems significantly more likely that – whatever the candidates have said – if the race looks close, lawyers for both sides will be gearing up for court challenges in key states – while pro-Trump poll watchers and other supporters are likely to be making numerous claims of election interference.Last time around, exhaustive legal processes found similar claims to be without foundation, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be repeated. It is entirely possible that we will have a clear call of a result from the major networks by this time, but everything will still appear to be in flux.What else we’re readingView image in fullscreen

      Poppies have been an exhausting part of British political discourse for more than 20 years. Samira Shackle’s long read is a definitive exploration of how they shifted from “a modest sign of remembrance” to “a prop for performative patriotism”. Archie

      These days, every product, app and service seems to be designed to make life as frictionless, quick and easy as possible. But in this week’s edition of The Big Idea, Alex Curmi asks whether the relentless pursuit of hyper-convenience and optimisation is actually making life more difficult. Nimo

      Climate protesters’ contentious nonviolent tactics – such as throwing soup on expensive artwork and disrupting sports events – may draw attention to environmental issues, but they have also led to activists being accused of undermining their cause. In New York magazine, Elizabeth Weil explores the idea of the “climate anti-hero”. Nimo

      RIP Quincy Jones. It’s a fine occasion to revisit David Marchese’s rip-roaring 2018 interview with him for New York magazine, widely shared on social media yesterday. You will have your own favourite bit, but it’s his anecdote about Ringo Starr and shepherd’s pie, for me. Archie

      Justin McCurry has written a fascinating, bleak piece about the North Korean soldiers headed to Ukraine to join their Russian counterparts – desperately inexperienced, unfamiliar with the terrain, and said by many to be cannon fodder. Archie
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | A remarkable stoppage-time double from Harry Wilson (above) was enough to give Fulham a 2-1 win over Brentford. Vitaly Janelt’s first half goal looked to have secured all three points for the visitors until Wilson pounced with a flicked volley and a superb header.Rugby | The former Scotland rugby international Stuart Hogg has admitted abusing his estranged wife over the course of five years. Hogg, 32, had been due to stand trial at Selkirk sheriff court on Monday but pleaded guilty to a single charge when he appeared at the court yesterday.Football | Arsenal’s sporting director, Edu, is to leave the club and looks likely to join the network of clubs spearheaded by Evangelos Marinakis, the owner of Nottingham Forest. Edu’s shock departure will bring to an end his five years in Arsenal’s senior management and means Mikel Arteta will lose one of his major allies.The front pagesView image in fullscreen“Harris or Trump: US faces its moment of reckoning” – the Guardian’s splash headline today while the Daily Telegraph has “Farage tells Trump: Do not fight poll result”. “America decides – as world holds its breath” – that’s the i. The Financial Times has “America votes as polls show dead heat”. “Starmer’s 180 degree uni U turn” is the top story in the Metro while the Daily Mail says “Now that’s what you call a U-turn!” and in the Times it’s “Labour vow to improve universities as fees rise”. The Express wants a different reversal: “Labour has to U-turn on ‘spiteful’ farm tax”. “My broken heart” – Amy Dowden in the Mirror after having to quit Strictly Come Dancing.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenA road trip through Pennsylvania, the ultimate swing stateFrom traditional rural Republicans who won’t vote for Trump to Latino voters who will, Michael Safi finds voters taking surprising stances as he embarks on a road trip through the biggest swing state in the USCartoon of the day | Ben JenningsView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenIslamic State’s brutal three-year occupation of Mosul in northern Iraq was marked by the destruction of cultural sites and the banning of literature, arts and sports. Seven years since the occupation ended, the city’s poets and writers have begun to revitalise its rich literary heritage. Residents convene in a public reading club, where they can engage in open dialogue free from the fear of reprisal or judgment.“People want the city to rise again,” says Unesco adviser Wifaq Ahmed. “Writing is the simplest weapon people have to save our identity [and] history, and restore social cohesion.”Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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