As the extraordinary Oval Office meeting between Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani shows, there’s a new bellwether in American politics.For years, Ohio played that role. In every election from 1964 to 2016, the state voted for the winning presidential candidate, and every four years journalists would travel there to interview voters in Columbus and Cincinnati, Dayton and Youngstown. But in 2020 Biden won without carrying the state, and today Ohio is deeply red, costing it its bellwether status. Several other states once considered battlegrounds – Iowa, Missouri, and Florida – have also turned firmly Republican.But now a new bellwether has emerged: Queens. This humble New York borough contains multitudes. With a population of 2.3 million, it would be the nation’s fifth largest city if it stood alone. And in diversity it is without peer. Nearly half of Queens residents are foreign born. It is about a quarter white, a quarter Latino, nearly a quarter Asian and 17% Black, and 140 languages are spoken there. It’s home to Citi Field and the USTA Tennis Center, LaGuardia and John F Kennedy airports, MoMA PS1 and Aqueduct Racetrack, Archie Bunker of All in the Family and Awkwafina of Nora from Queens.Flushing is home to so many Asians that its downtown is known as the Chinese Times Square. Astoria has one of the largest Greek populations outside of Greece; Jackson Heights is known as “Little Colombia”; Woodside has a “Little Manila”. Jamaica is home to large African American, Caribbean and Central American populations, while Long Island City has become a magnet for the hip and arty. Queens also has New York’s largest Muslim population as well as 150,000 Jews. Overall, it is thoroughly middle and working class – a swath of heartland America set down in pulsating, cosmopolitan New York.Like all other New York boroughs except Staten Island, Queens reliably votes Democratic, but in November 2024 it moved decisively toward Trump. Where Joe Biden in 2020 won Queens by 72% to 27% – a 45-point margin – Kamala Harris in 2024 won it by only 24 points. Trump’s gains were especially large in heavily Latino, Chinese and south Asian neighborhoods.Many of those voting for him were propelled by the rise in disorder that had occurred in the wake of the pandemic and then exacerbated by the sudden influx of migrants. The placement of the migrants in makeshift shelters in residential neighborhoods without adequate support services led to a wave of complaints about crime and loitering as well as resentment over the diversion of resources from longtime residents. As in many other districts, the rise in rents and the cost of groceries contributed to a sense among many that the path to the middle class was becoming increasingly narrow. A political realignment seemed under way.Yet even as Trump was making such inroads, the democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was winning 69% of the vote in her congressional district, which straddles northern Queens and the South Bronx. And, as dissatisfaction with the status quo surged and concerns over affordability mounted, support grew for another young insurgent – Zohran Mamdani.A state assemblyman whose district includes parts of Astoria and Long Island City, Mamdani in the 24 June Democratic primary won support from a mixed salad of leftish young professionals, working-class Latinos, and recently arrived south Asians – all drawn to his bread-and-butter platform of universal childcare, free buses and a rent freeze. Groups like Drum Beats (Desis Rising Up & Moving) canvassed tens of thousands of residents, including a Bangladeshi population that has tripled over the last decade.In the general election, Mamdani got 47.3% of the votes in Queens. “Some of the areas that have been trending towards Trump went for Mamdani,” observed John Mollenkopf, a professor of political science at the Cuny Graduate Center.Trump concurred. “A lot of my voters voted for him,” the president said during his 21 November meeting with Mamdani. The session seemed to seal Queens’s political arrival. For Trump, too, is a product of the borough. He grew up in Jamaica Estates, a leafy upper-middle-class section located about 10 miles from Mamdani’s Astoria home. Both are anti-establishment figures with a knack for understanding and addressing the needs of those with “fingers bruised from lifting boxes on the warehouse floor, palms calloused from delivery by handlebars, [and] knuckles scarred with kitchen burns”, as Mamdani put it in his victory speech.With Ocasio-Cortez contemplating a run for higher office, Queens is proving an important seedbed for national politics, and New York-based journalists – rather than have to book flights to the midwest – can now hop on the 7 train to Jackson Heights or Flushing.Yet national news organizations have treated the borough like flyover country. The New York Times in particular has been a step behind. Back in the 90s, the paper had a sizable metro section that thoroughly covered the outer boroughs and the tristate region. But as the Times mushroomed into a global paper – it now has more readers in California than in New York – it has shortchanged the city’s blue-collar precincts. Today, driverless cars in San Francisco get as much coverage in the paper as taxi drivers in Corona.As a result, the Times, during the mayoral race, failed to grasp the groundswell developing behind Mamdani. And, when his strength did become evident, it was strangely dismissive and even hostile toward him, sniffing in an editorial that because of his lack of experience and concern about the disorder in the city, “we do not believe that Mr. Mamdani deserves a spot on New Yorkers’ ballots.”It followed with an “exposé” about how as a high school senior Mamdani (who was born in Uganda) had checked multiple boxes on his college application to Columbia about his race, purportedly to gain an advantage. Mamdani explained that he considered himself “an American who was born in Africa” and that his answers were an attempt to represent his complex background given the limited choices before him. The piece fed the perception that the Times was “on a crusade against Mamdani”, as Margaret Sullivan put it in the Guardian.After his victory, the paper, noting his ascension and Ocasio-Cortez’s continuing strength, ran a piece about how Queens “is having its moment”. With the borough claiming three of the top four spots in a survey of city-neighborhoods-to-watch in 2025; with Astoria emerging as a favorite among young professionals; and with the Rockaways becoming a summer staple, the Times observed, “Could Queens become the new Brooklyn?”It already is the new Ohio.
Michael Massing is an American writer based in New York City. He is a former executive editor of the Columbia Journalism Review More