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      Trump promised a steel mill in this rural Iowa region. But is it all a midterm election ploy?

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      Residents would welcome the development, but the president’s past false promises cast doubt on the proposalOn a Monday afternoon in late September, Donald Trump gathered Iowa Republicans in the Oval Office to make a big announcement: the firm Mesabi Metallics would invest $15bn to make the midwestern state the site of the largest steel mill in the country.One month later, and just days before the midterm election, word has spread in the small town of Wever, population 142, that the mill will be built somewhere nearby. And that’s been about it – no shovels in the dirt, workers on a job site or machinery on the dirt roads leading down towards the Mississippi River. Continue reading… More

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      John Oliver on Maga’s James Talarico smears: ‘middle school level homophobia’

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      The HBO host called out Trump’s ‘ridiculous’ stunts and Republican Islamophobia in the lead up to the US midtermsOn his HBO show on Sunday night, John Oliver focused on the last-minute rallies being held across the US leading up to the midterms.In Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton implored the few supporters assembled at a rally to not leave. Continue reading… More

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      Xavier Becerra’s ‘California dream’ faces reality check as governor’s mansion beckons

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      Former US representative, health secretary and state attorney general is a shoo-in after a stunning comeback victory in primaryIt was Tuesday, and the man poised to be the next governor of California wanted to talk about Donald Trump.Xavier Becerra had come to Guelaguetza restaurant in Los Angeles to talk about Trump’s attacks on voting in the state, but instead found himself answering questions about a presidential provocation of a different order. Continue reading… More

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      How you (yes you) can fight dark money in elections | Judd Legum

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      An easy way to unveil the corporate interests and tech billionaires behind the adsWelcome back to How We Win, a Guardian opinion series with leading thinkers, offering bold ideas for America’s political future. Last week, Katie Phang argued that the Epstein files are a midterms sledgehammer. Today’s edition was written by Judd Legum, the founder and author of Popular Information. Sign up for future editions here.An unprecedented influx of cash from tech billionaires and corporate interests has been injected into the midterms to sway the election.We don’t have to accept the world as it is. There are several ways we can combat dark money, as the balance of power shifts in Washington. Continue reading… More

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      Republicans were hoping to flip this New Hampshire Senate seat – will Trump get in the way?

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      Republican John Sununu tries to distance himself from unpopular president in race against Chris Pappas that has gone from ‘toss-up’ to ‘lean Democrat’Chris Pappas is stopping himself from getting too excited ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election.“I take nothing for granted,” said the four-term US representative and Democratic nominee for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat. “This is a very purple, competitive state. Elections are never in the bag here.” Continue reading… More

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      Spoiler candidates are nothing new in US politics. It’s clear why Trump is targeting Peltola | Petala Ironcloud

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      Republicans are focused on a race that could flip the Senate – and where an Alaska Native is favoredDays before Alaskans get to vote, the federal government is already trying to overturn the result.Last week, at Donald Trump’s behest, the justice department sued to block the certification of Alaska’s US Senate race, if the Republican incumbent narrowly loses; a judge dismissed that suit on Sunday, though the administration said it planned to appeal. On Wednesday, Trump demanded that Mary Peltola, the Alaska Native Democrat whom polls favor to win, be removed from the ballot and prosecuted. Piling on, Alaska’s Republican governor has since ordered an investigation into Peltola’s campaign. Continue reading… More

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      Prediction market bettors are the new political pundits. Why are we listening to them? | Judith Levine

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      Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket offer faux populism as elites reap the benefits – and voters risk being misledOnline betting is a bit like Donald Trump.The prediction markets – platforms where users bet on whether events will occur – pretend to be populist, pushing the nabobs aside and representing the “wisdom of the crowd”. “This data is bottom-up, not elites-driven,” a Kalshi ​spokesperson told Reuters. But in fact, the markets are controlled by a few, skillful traders. Continue reading… More

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      These midterms could effectively end the Trump era – but neither side is yet ready for what comes next | Nesrine Malik

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      Despite the US president’s ratings being at rock bottom, undoing his legacy will be difficult, not least because the Democrats are in disarrayThe stats and polling all suggest one thing: the Republicans are set for a hammering in the midterms. Donald Trump has the lowest approval rating of any US president going into a midterm election since Harry Truman. And it’s still dropping. The Democrats are projected to win by a margin of 11 percentage points, the largest swing by any party in almost 20 years. It is possible that the Democrats flip the Senate and secure a large majority in Congress. Those majorities would make a material difference, perhaps finally establishing oversight of the policies Trump has brought in during his second term: immigration enforcement, trade disputes, gutting the federal workforce, the Iran war, to say nothing of his own family’s corruption. The tide seems to be turning, and one question is on everyone’s mind: is the Trump era really ending?“Nobody wants to jinx it,” wrote David Wallace-Wells of the New York Times, but: “All the signs we have suggest that, historic or not, these midterms are likely to mark the end of a political era.” What that gives way to is a much more complicated picture in which the US will be delivered from Trump himself, but remains a country riven and undermined by what he has unleashed. By the time he is gone, Trump will have been president for eight years, and a toxic force for more than 12. That is a long time even for a normal politician. Under one who shatters norms and forces himself into the centre of everything, Trump’s effect is as if he were president for decades. Continue reading… More