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      US election live: Kamala Harris concedes to Donald Trump but vows to keep fighting for freedom and democracy

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      Kamala Harris made her concession to Donald Trump official, but vowed to keep fighting for the issues that she campaigned on.“While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign,” the vice-president said.“The fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness and the dignity of all people, a fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation, the ideals that reflect America at our best. That is a fight I will never give up.”Harkening back to some of the promises of her failed campaign, Harris said:
      I will never give up the fight for a future where Americans can pursue their dreams, ambitions and aspirations, where the women of America have the freedom to make decisions about their own body and not have their government telling them what to do.
      We will never give up the fight to protect our schools and our streets from gun violence and, America, we will never give up the fight for our democracy, for the rule of law, for equal justice and for the sacred idea that every one of us, no matter who we are or where we start out, has certain fundamental rights and freedoms. That must be respected and upheld.
      Harris just wrapped up her speech by saying that even if the country struggles in the years to come, it will emerge stronger:
      There’s an adage an historian once called a law of history, true of every society across the ages. The adage is: only when it is dark enough can you see the stars. I know many people feel like we are entering a dark time, but for the benefit of us all, I hope that is not the case. But here’s the thing, America, if it is, let us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant, brilliant billion of stars.
      The light, the light of optimism, of faith, of truth and service … and may that work guide us, even in the face of setbacks, toward the extraordinary promise of the United States of America.
      Her husband, Doug Emhoff, then appeared at her side, and the couple waved at the crowd before heading offstage to the sound of Beyoncé’s Freedom, a staple at events in her unsuccessful campaign for president.With a nod to future elections that could help Democrats regain political power, Kamala Harris urged her supporters to stay engaged in the democratic process.“The fight for our freedom will take hard work, but like I always say, we like hard work. Hard work is good work. Hard work can be joyful work. And the fight for our country is always worth it,” Harris said.She also made a point of addressing young people, who broke for Donald Trump in surprisingly large numbers in yesterday’s election.
      To the young people who are watching, it is OK to feel sad and disappointed, but please know it’s going to be OK. On the campaign, I would often say, ‘When we fight, we win.’ But here’s the thing, here’s the thing, sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn’t mean we won’t win. That doesn’t mean we won’t win. The important thing is, don’t ever give up.
      Many Democrats dread Trump returning to office, but Harris encouraged them not to be overcome by grief:
      So, to everyone who is watching, do not despair. This is not a time to throw up our hands. This is a time to roll up our sleeves. This is a time to organize, to mobilize and to stay engaged for the sake of freedom and justice and the future that we all know we can build together.
      Kamala Harris made her concession to Donald Trump official, but vowed to keep fighting for the issues that she campaigned on.“While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign,” the vice-president said.“The fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness and the dignity of all people, a fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation, the ideals that reflect America at our best. That is a fight I will never give up.”Harkening back to some of the promises of her failed campaign, Harris said:
      I will never give up the fight for a future where Americans can pursue their dreams, ambitions and aspirations, where the women of America have the freedom to make decisions about their own body and not have their government telling them what to do.
      We will never give up the fight to protect our schools and our streets from gun violence and, America, we will never give up the fight for our democracy, for the rule of law, for equal justice and for the sacred idea that every one of us, no matter who we are or where we start out, has certain fundamental rights and freedoms. That must be respected and upheld.
      Kamala Harris said she had spoken to president-elect Donald Trump, and would work with him to peacefully transfer power.“Now, I know folks are feeling and experiencing a range of emotions right now. I get it, but we must accept the results of this election,” the vice-president said.“Earlier today, I spoke with president-elect Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I also told him that we will help him and his team with their transition and that we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.”That would be a shift from when Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020, and tried for weeks to block the Democrat from taking office, culminating in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.Harris then thanked everyone who worked for her campaign, which lasted just over three months.“To my beloved Doug and our family, I love you so very much. To President Biden and Dr Biden, thank you for your faith and support. To Governor Walz and the Walz family, I know your service to our nation will continue, and to my extraordinary team, to the volunteers who gave so much of themselves to the poll workers and the local election officials. I thank you. I thank you all,” Harris said.Kamala Harris acknowledged the disappointment of her election loss to Donald Trump yesterday, but called on her supporters to “keep fighting”.“My heart is full today. Full of gratitude for the trust you have placed in me, full of love for our country and full of resolve,” the vice-president said.“The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say, hear me when I say, the light of America’s promise will always burn bright, as long as we never give up, and as long as we keep fighting.”Kamala Harris has just walked on stage to make her concession speech before a crowd of supporters in Washington DC.She is speaking at her alma mater, Howard University. Her campaign had its election night party there yesterday, but as it became clear that Donald Trump was winning, Harris canceled a planned address that evening.She conceded to Trump in a phone call earlier in the day, an aide said.Tim Walz and his wife, Gwen, were just spotted in the crowd at Howard University.The Minnesota governor was Harris’s running mate in her unsuccessful bid for president.Bernie Sanders, the independent senator and leading progressive voice in Congress, says Democrats’ failure to embrace policies that would help the average American led to the party’s terrible performance in yesterday’s election.“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right,” said Sanders, who was re-elected to a fourth term representing Vermont yesterday.Sanders caucuses with Democrats in the Senate and campaigned for Kamala Harris, but has broken with Joe Biden over his support for Israel, and encouraged him to adopt progressive economic policies.In his statement, Sanders encouraged Democrats to learn lessons from a debacle that saw Donald Trump defeat Harris, and the GOP regain control of the Senate:
      Today, despite strong opposition from a majority of Americans, we continue to spend billions funding the extremist Netanyahu government’s all out war against the Palestinian people which has led to the horrific humanitarian disaster of mass malnutrition and the starvation of thousands of children. Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not.In the coming weeks and months those of us concerned about grassroots democracy and economic justice need to have some very serious political discussions.
      There’s a large crowd gathered at Howard University to see Kamala Harris speak, and among the group is former House speaker Nancy Pelosi.She won re-election last night to her heavily Democratic district centered on San Francisco, but has handed leadership of the House Democratic caucus to Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who also won another term yesterday.Kamala Harris is due to acknowledge Donald Trump’s presidential election victory in a speech to supporters at Howard University in Washington DC.The vice-president should be taking the stage at her alma mater in a few minutes. She has already conceded the election to Trump in a phone call earlier in the day, according to an aide.Republicans currently control the House, and appear favored to continue holding the majority, Cook Political Report finds.But it doesn’t look likely that the GOP will expand their already tiny majority by much, and with counting ongoing, there’s still a chance that Democrats claw their way back to control:If there is any good news to be had in an election that saw stinging defeats for Democrats at the presidential level and in the Senate, it may be found in the House of Representatives, and specifically the races that have yet to be called in California.Just moments after the polls closed in the Golden state, the Democratic stronghold was called for Kamala Harris and the party’s candidate for Senate, Adam Schiff, was declared the winner.But despite a clear majority of blue votes at the top of the ticket, zooming in on the state’s sprawling list of local races showcased deeper divisions, with many contests remaining too close to call.Among them are important seats that could help determine which party controls the House:

      As of Wednesday morning, incumbent Republican Mike Garcia was up just two points over Democratic challenger George Whitesides with 67% of votes reported in the district north of Los Angeles.

      In the seat left open by Democratic representative Katie Porter after her run for Senate – an area considered “Reagan country” that includes conservative-leaning Huntington Beach – Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min are neck and neck with 71% of the vote reporting.

      Representative Ken Calvert, the longest-serving House Republican from California, is up one point over Democrat Will Rollins with 69% reporting.

      Incumbent Republican David Valadao has a stronger grip on his seat with 55% to Democrat Rudy Salas’s 45%, with just over half of the votes recorded.

      The rematch between Republican representative John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray – whom he narrowly beat in 2022 – is close again with Duarte at 51.4% to Gray’s 48.6% with about half of the Central valley district votes tallied.

      Republican representative Michelle Steel leads over her challenger, Democrat Derek Tran, with 52.5% to his 47.5%, but the AP hasn’t yet called the race.
      There are also a slew of initiatives put to voters in the state that are still being decided. The “no” votes are leading on Prop 6, which prohibits involuntary servitude as forced prison labor, Prop 32, which increases the minimum wage to $18 an hour, and Prop 5, which lowers vote thresholds required to approve bonds for affordable housing and public infrastructure.The count can take weeks in California, where there’s a strong reliance on mail-in ballots, which are sent out to all registered voters.Among those who gathered at Howard for the vice-president’s concession speech was Joanne Howes, a founding member of Emily’s List, an influential fundraising group that supports Democratic female candidates who back abortion rights.“Terrible,” she said when asked how she was doing. “I’ve been at this a long time and this time I really thought we were going to do it.” At 80, Howes said she was less hopeful now than she had ever been that she would see a female president.“I am so angry at white women. I thought they were going to get it this time,” said Howes, who is white. “And those white women who voted for those ballot measures and then went to vote for Trump – figure that out.”After appointing the justices who overturned Roe v Wade, Donald Trump was found liable for sexually abusing E Jean Carroll. Despite a campaign to remind women that their vote was a private matter that did not need to be shared with their husbands, national exit polls showed white women chose Trump by a sizable margin.“We’re going to feel sad and sorrowful, but then we have to get up again,” she said. “We can’t just accept that our democracy is over.”When he was first elected president in 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by less than one percentage point of the vote in the three “blue wall” states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.It was a frustrating result for Democrats, leaving many with the feeling that, if only Clinton had handled her campaign slightly differently, she would have been president.Democrats are still digesting Kamala Harris’s defeat last night, but it has become clear that voters were decisive in choosing Trump over the vice-president. As the below chart shows, he improved his margins in the blue wall states, and turned back Harris’s efforts to win Georgia, as Joe Biden had in 2020, and North Carolina. We still don’t have the results for Nevada and Arizona yet, but he’s leading the count in those states, too.The chart is also a good reminder of how strong Democrats once were in the blue wall, and in Nevada. Have a look:Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin will be Michigan’s next senator, the Associated Press reports.It’s yet another sigh of relief for Democrats in a battleground state that gave its electoral votes to Donald Trump yesterday. Though they have already lost their majority in the Senate, Slotkin’s victory for the open seat being vacated by Democrat Debbie Stabenow means they have fewer seats to retake to gain the majority in future elections. More

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      Effects of Republican Senate majority will reverberate through the courts

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      Democrats knew they faced an uphill climb in holding their 51-49 Senate majority on Tuesday, with a map that tilted heavily in Republicans’ favor.But as recently as Sunday, they held out hope that they could maintain control of the upper chamber. They offered cautious optimism that the Democratic incumbent Jon Tester could edge out the Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana, and they felt comfortable with the Democratic senator Sherrod Brown’s chances in Ohio.In the end, Tester and Brown both lost along with the Democrat Glenn Elliott in West Virginia, representing three pick-ups for Republicans. As of Wednesday afternoon, Republicans had secured at least 52 of the Senate’s 100 seats, with the possibility of additional wins in battleground states.Republicans’ new Senate majority will give the president-elect, Donald Trump, far more leverage to enact his legislative agenda and, crucially, confirm judicial and executive nominees.To be clear, Republicans’ legislative prospects will largely depend on whether they can win full control of Congress. The House was still too close to call on Wednesday and would probably remain so for days, as California began the long process of counting millions of mail ballots. If Democrats win a narrow majority in the House, their conference will almost certainly act as a blockade for much of Trump’s agenda.But even without a victory in the House, Trump and Senate Republicans’ partnership could have long-lasting impacts on the country’s courts and laws, given that the upper chamber confirms the president’s judicial nominees.Trump has already nominated three justices to the supreme court, where conservatives hold a six-three majority. With Trump in office, the two oldest conservatives on the court – Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74 – may choose to step down to give him the opportunity to fill their seats. In the event that Senate Republicans confirmed Trump’s nominees to replace them, he would become the first president since Dwight Eisenhower to successfully appoint five members of the supreme court.If he has the chance to select more supreme court justices, Trump would probably favor younger nominees who could sit on the bench for decades, given that justices serve lifetime appointments. That possibility underscores a chilling reality for many left-leaning Americans: even though Trump is limited to only serving two terms, the country may be dealing with the repercussions of his presidency far into the future.During his first term, Trump and Senate Republicans prioritized confirming as many conservative judges as possible. Over his four years in office, the Senate confirmed 220 of Trump’s judicial appointments, according to the conservative Heritage Foundation. In comparison, Barack Obama saw 160 judicial confirmations over his eight years in office.After Trump’s flurry of judicial nominations, Joe Biden made it a top priority to match his predecessor’s record. As of Wednesday, the Senate has confirmed 213 of Biden’s judicial appointments, with more possible in the final weeks before the new Congress is seated in January.Because of Trump and Biden’s track records, the new president will inherit the fewest number of federal judicial vacancies in more than three decades, NBC News has reported. But even if the pace of judicial confirmations slows during Trump’s second term, the Republican majority in the Senate will still provide a rubber stamp on other nominations.Trump has made clear that he intends to overhaul the federal government and perhaps even reclassify tens of thousands of non-partisan roles as political appointments. To get his cabinet members and lower-level administration officials confirmed, Trump will need the support of the Senate, and Republicans appear eager to help advance his plans.Although Senate Democrats have lost their majority, their decision to leave the filibuster intact may benefit them in the new session of Congress. During Biden’s early presidency, Democrats had considered amending the filibuster, a legislative mechanism that effectively raises the threshold for passing bills from 51 votes to 60 votes. If Republicans win the House and full control of Congress, Senate Democrats may need to rely on the filibuster to stymie Trump’s agenda.With their party shut out of power for at least the next two years, Senate Democrats will soon turn their attention to the 2026 midterms. But considering senators serve six-year terms, it could take far more than just two years to undo the damage that Tuesday wrought for Democrats.Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

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      US election 2024 live: Donald Trump says ‘we made history’ as he closes in on victory with win in Pennsylvania

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      On stage in West Palm Beach, Trump declared victory and pledged to bring a “golden age” to the United States.“This was a movement like nobody’s ever seen before, and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond,” Trump said.“And now it’s going to reach a new level of importance, because we’re going to help our country. We’ll help our country … we have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country. And we made history for a reason tonight, and the reason is going to be just that we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible, and it is now clear that we’ve achieved the most incredible political thing.”He continued:
      I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president, and every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family and your future. Every single day, I will be fighting for you and with every breath in my body, I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America.
      Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, says Athens “looks forward to further deepening the strategic partnership between our two countries,” in a post on X congratulating Donald Trump on his election victory.At a time of regional turmoil, the centre right leader highlighted the need to continue working closely on geopolitical issues.Nato-member Greece has increasingly emphasised its role as a “pillar of stability” in the eastern Mediterranean – a role that in turn has been highlighted by the Middle East conflict.Hours before ballot boxes opened in the US, Mitsotakis said that while the presidential elections were of “particular importance for the entire international community” it was “absolutely necessary for Europe to come of age geopolitically. The time has come for Europe to re-energize itself by launching policies that go off the beaten track”.The comments have been interpreted as speaking to the nervousness many in Europe will feel about a Trump comeback.The video team have shared the below clips of Donald Trump supporters gathered at a watch party in Florida earlier erupting in celebration as Fox News called the 2024 race.The Associated Press, which the Guardian relies on for projections, has not yet called the election overall.Israel’s president Isaac Herzog has described Donald Trump as a “champion of peace” as senior figures in Benjamin Netanyahu’s government welcomed the prospect of the return of the former president to the White House.In a post to social media Herzog said:
      Congratulations to president Donald Trump on your historic return to the White House. You are a true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region.
      I look forward to working with you to strengthen the ironclad bond between our peoples, to build a future of peace and security for the Middle East, and to uphold our shared values.
      Earlier, the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu himself offered congratulations, saying a Trump victory “offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America”.Israel’s newly appointed defense minister, Israel Katz, said he believed that a Trump presidency will “bring back the hostages” and defeat Iran, posting:
      Congratulations to president-elect Donald Trump on his historic victory. Together we’ll strengthen the US-Israel alliance, bring back the hostages, and stand firm to defeat the axis of evil led by Iran.
      Two far-right members of the Netanyahu cabinet, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir both used social media messages to invoke blessings from God on Trump, Israel and America. The two of them head parties which are for the exansion of Israel’s illegal settlements on the land of the occupied West Bank.Qatar’s Emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, also offered congratulations to Trump, saying:
      I wish you all the best during your term and look forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership, and to advancing our shared efforts in promoting security and stability both in the region and globally.”
      Qatar has been one of the nations working most closely with the US and Egypt in attempts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas. Hamas is believed to still be holding about 100 hostages seized from Israel on 7 October 2023, many of whom are thought to have been killed.Hamas, which launched the 7 October attack last year, leading to Israel’s sustained military assault on Gaza, has also reacted to the US election.Reuters reports senior official Sami Abu Zuhri said Trump would be tested on his statements that he can stop the war within hours as US president, and told the news agency: “We urge Trump to learn from Biden’s mistakes.”Charles Michel president of the European Council, which represents the leaders of the 27 EU member states has congratulated Donald Trump.The prime minister of Ireland, which is the European HQ to some of the US’s most important companies, has congratulated Donald Trump.“The people of the United States have spoken and Ireland will work to deepen and strengthen the historic and unbreakable bonds between our people and our nations in the years ahead,” said Simon Harris.Ireland’s relationship with the US is one of its most important economically and politically given its role over the peace deal in Northern Ireland.Foreign investment from the US is the backbone of the country’s economy with US multinationals including tech companies Google, Microsoft and Intel, employing 300,000 people in Ireland and contributing 50% of the country’s corporate tax.Here’s a video of Donald Trump speaking on stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, earlier where he pledgedto bring a “golden age” to the United States.The leader of the UK’s Liberal Democrats party has called a likely Donald Trump election victory “a dark, dark day for people around the globe” and described the Republican as a “destructive demagogue”.Ed Davey, who leads the third largest political party in the UK parliament, wrote on X:
      This is a dark, dark day for people around the globe. The world’s largest economy and most powerful military will be led by a dangerous, destructive demagogue.”
      In a statement recently released by the party, Davey added:
      The next president of the United States is a man who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.
      Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.
      Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining Nato and emboldening tyrants like Putin.
      Fixing the UK’s broken relationship with the EU is even more urgent than before. We must strengthen trade and defence cooperation across Europe to help protect ourselves from the damage Trump will do.
      Now more than ever, we must stand up for the core liberal values of equality, democracy, human rights and the rule of law – at home and around the world.”
      The president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has congratulated Donald Trump and urged him to work with her on a “transatlantic partnership”.Von der Leyen said the EU and US were “more than just allies”, but shared a deep bond “rooted in our shared history, commitment to freedom and democracy, and common goals of security and opportunity for all”.She said:
      Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens. Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship.”
      Behind the scenes von der Leyen’s team has been preparing for a Trump victory for months, including by drawing up lists of US imports to Europe to target with tariffs, if Trump imposes punitive duties on European goods to the US.Donald Trump has won Michigan’s Saginaw county, a bellwether that bodes well for his chances of flipping the Great Lakes state Joe Biden won four years ago.Trump is leading with 84.2% of the votes counted, picking up 50.9% support to Kamala Harris’s 47.7%. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by winning 49.4% of the vote compared to the Republican’s 49.1%. The county supported Trump in 2016, when he won Michigan overall.The Associated Press has not yet called Michigan, but Trump currently has a lead of just under five percentage points over Harris.Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has congratulated Donald Trump and said he showed “strong US leadership” in his first term in office that strengthened the alliance.In a statement Rutte said he looked forward to working with Trump “to advance peace through strength through Nato”.Rutte, who took office last month, referred to the challenges facing the alliance without a direct reference to the war in Ukraine.He said:
      We face a growing number of challenges globally, from a more aggressive Russia, to terrorism, to strategic competition with China, as well the increasing alignment of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
      The veteran Dutch politician, reputed for knowing how to handle Trump, praised the US president-elect, while seeking to convince him of the value of the alliance.India’s prime minister Narendra Modi joined the ranks of world leaders congratulating Donald Trump on his presumed victory. In a post on X, Modi offered “hearty congratulations to my friend Donald Trump”, alongside several photos of the two men tightly embracing each other and holding hands.Modi, who has been Indian prime minister for a decade, was seen to have a close relationship with Trump during his first term in office, and Trump has repeatedly referred to “my friend Modi”.As it looked like Trump was claiming victory on Wednesday, Modi said he was “looking forward to collaboration” between the US and India and added:
      Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.”
      At the Republican watch party in Las Vegas, the crowd is giddy.The bar at the Ahern hotel is packed with excited, bleary-eyed supporters. In a city known for its flair and theatrics, many supporters are dressed up in their most flamboyant Maga gear. A man wearing a rubber Trump mask and a star-paneled cape draws laughs and cheers.Sari Utschen, 57, was wearing a homemade dress that was embroidered with the word “Trump” down the front in huge block letters, and string of LED lights draped like a scarf.“I feel relieved. I feel joyous,” she said.Utschen said she used to vote with Democrats in the 80s and 90s, but finds that the party has gone too far to the left in recent years. “I’ve been red-pilled,” she said, laughing. Over the past four years, she said: “I felt like we were being bamboozled under Biden. Nothing made sense.” More

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      The Guardian view on America’s electoral college: time to scrap an antidemocratic relic | Editorial

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      The last two presidential elections have raised serious questions about the strength of American democracy and, unfortunately, Tuesday’s election may deepen these concerns. Central to this issue is the electoral college, which allows Americans to elect their president indirectly through state-appointed electors. Though the electoral college has stirred controversy for more than 200 years, Donald Trump’s 2016 victory – despite losing the popular vote by 3 million – intensified the sense that the system undermines democratic principles. It would be gut-wrenching to see the unhinged, vengeful and power-hungry Mr Trump win because of the electoral college’s antidemocratic result.Yet that might happen. Post-civil war, four presidents – all Republicans – have lost the popular vote yet won the White House via the electoral college. Mr Trump’s 2024 campaign has seemed intent on repeating this feat or creating enough chaos to push the election to the House of Representatives, where Republican delegations are likely to prevail. His strategy relies on divisive rhetoric, marked by inflammatory and often discriminatory themes. Rather than bridging divides, he aims to deepen them – seeking an electoral college win by rallying his most fervent supporters.With numerous legal challenges expected, the final election outcome may be delayed for days. In 2020, despite losing the popular vote by 7 million, Mr Trump refused to concede and sought to undermine the certification process. The electoral college’s complex mechanics allow room for exploitation, a vulnerability that Mr Trump appears willing to leverage, even if it means inciting violence. Now he is laying the groundwork for future claims of fraud with a barrage of lies, preparing to cry foul if he loses again.Under the electoral college, candidates must secure 270 electors, a majority of the 538 at stake, in order to win. Supporters argue that by granting each state a set number of electoral votes and adopting the winner-take-all system in all but two states, the electoral college compels candidates to engage with diverse regions across the country. In theory, this fosters nationwide attention, but in practice it often fails to achieve this goal. Kamala Harris and Mr Trump have focused their efforts in the large, competitive states. Ms Harris has concentrated her efforts on the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – which current polls suggest would be enough to put her in the White House. Mr Trump needs just Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania alone, the Harris and Trump campaigns have collectively spent $576m in political advertising.In his book Why the Electoral College Is Bad for America, the historian George C Edwards III points out that Gallup polls over the past 50 years show most “Americans have continually expressed support for the notion of an official amendment of the US constitution that would allow for direct election of the president”. It isn’t a fantasy. In 1969, the House passed such an amendment with a strong bipartisan vote, backed by Richard Nixon. Three-fourths of states signalled support. But it was killed in the Senate by a filibuster led by southern senators who feared that a popular vote would empower African Americans. The most prominent effort to get rid of the electoral college today is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Tim Walz, Ms Harris’s running mate, backs scrapping the present system. Is it possible to abolish the electoral college? It shouldn’t need the nightmare of a second Trump presidency to reform this antidemocratic relic of the 18th century.

      Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. More

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      When do polls close on election day, Tuesday, 5 November 2024?

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      After a historic US election cycle that saw the incumbent president step down from his party’s ticket and two assassination attempts against the Republican presidential nominee, voters are (finally) casting their ballots.Tens of millions of Americans will have already voted by the time that polls close on 5 November, but tens of millions more will cast ballots in person on election day. In 2020, more than 200 million Americans voted in the presidential race, as turnout hit its highest level since 1992.This year, election experts expect voter turnout to be similarly robust, with Americans eager to make their voices heard in what will probably be a very close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Voters will also have the opportunity to weigh in on thousands of other elections happening at the federal, state and local levels.As voters head to the polls, here’s a guide on how to navigate an election night that is guaranteed to be eventful:6pm ET: polls start to closeThe first polls will close in eastern Kentucky and much of Indiana at 6pm ET. Democrats’ expectations are low in the two Republican-leaning states: Trump is virtually guaranteed to win both, and Republicans are expected to easily hold most of the two states’ House seats as well.7pm ET: polls fully close in six states, including GeorgiaAmericans will get their first clues about the outcome of the presidential race at 7pm ET, when polls close in the battleground state of Georgia. Joe Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020, after Trump carried the state by 5 points four years earlier. This year, Trump appears to have a slight advantage over Harris in the Peach state, but a strong night for Democrats could put Georgia in their win column again.As Georgia starts to count its ballots, polls will also close in Virginia, where both parties hope to flip a House seat. Republicans are looking to expand their narrow majority in the House, and the results in Virginia’s second and seventh congressional districts could give an early indication of the party’s success.7.30pm ET: polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West VirginiaNorth Carolina represents one of the largest tests for Harris, who has run neck and neck with Trump in the state’s polling. Trump won North Carolina by 1 point in 2020 and 3 points in 2016, and a loss in this battleground state could doom the former president. Democrats also expect a victory in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, given the recent revelations about Republican Mark Robinson’s disturbing internet activity.Meanwhile, the results in Ohio and West Virginia could decide control of the Senate. Republicans are expected to pick up a seat in West Virginia, where the independent senator Joe Manchin decided against seeking re-election; and the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, is facing a tough race in Ohio. If Republicans win both races, that would erase Democrats’ current 51-49 advantage in the Senate.8pm ET: polls fully close in 16 states, including PennsylvaniaThis will represent a pivotal moment in the presidential race. Whoever wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes is much more likely to win the White House, a fact that both nominees acknowledged as they held numerous campaign events in the state.“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump said at a rally in September. “It’s very simple.”Pennsylvania will also host some of the nation’s most competitive congressional races. If it is a good night for Republicans, they could flip the seat of the incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey, who is facing off against the former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick.But if Democrats have an especially strong night, they may set their sights on Florida, where the final polls close at 8pm ET. In addition to Harris’s long-shot hopes of flipping a state that Trump won twice, the Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is looking to unseat the Republican senator Rick Scott, who has maintained a polling advantage in the race. An upset win for Mucarsel-Powell could allow Democrats to maintain their Senate majority.8.30pm ET: polls close in ArkansasThere won’t be much suspense in Arkansas, as Trump is expected to easily win the solidly Republican state. Arkansas does have the distinction of being the only state where polls will close at 8.30pm ET, but most Americans’ attention will be on the results trickling in from battleground states by this point in the night.9pm ET: polls fully close in 15 states, including Michigan and WisconsinThis will be the do-or-die moment for Harris. In 2016, Trump’s ability to eke out narrow victories in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin sent him to the White House, but Biden won all three battlegrounds four years later.Harris’s most likely path to 270 electoral votes runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this year, so Trump could secure a second term if he can pick off even one of those states.Michigan and Wisconsin will also play a potentially decisive role in the battle for Congress. Democrats currently hold two Senate seats in the states that are up for grabs this year, and Republican victories in either race could give them a majority. Michigan’s seventh congressional district, which became an open seat after Elissa Slotkin chose to run for the Senate rather than seek re-election, has been described as “the most competitive open seat in the country”.In New York, where polls also close at 9pm ET, Democrats have the opportunity to flip several House seats that Republicans won in 2022. If they are successful, it could give Democrats a House majority.10pm ET: polls fully close in Nevada, Montana and UtahHarris hopes to keep Nevada in her column, as Democratic presidential candidates have won the state in every race since 2008. Trump previously led Nevada polls, but Harris has closed that gap in the final weeks of the race.Another two Senate races will come to a close at this point in the night as well. In Nevada, the Democratic incumbent, Jacky Rosen, is favored to hold her seat, but her fellow Democratic senator Jon Tester’s prospects appear grim in Montana.If Republicans have not already clinched a Senate majority by the time Montana’s polls close, this may be the moment when they officially capture control of the upper chamber.11pm ET: polls fully close in four states, including CaliforniaWhile Harris is virtually guaranteed a victory in her home state of California, the state’s House races carry important implications for control of Congress. Five House Republicans face toss-up races in California, according to the Cook Political Report, so the state represents Democrats’ biggest opportunity to regain a majority in the chamber.12am ET: polls close in Hawaii and most of AlaskaBy the time polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska, Americans should have a much better sense of who will be moving into the White House come January. But if 2020 is any indication, the nation may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call on who won the presidential race.In 2020, the AP did not declare Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016, it took until 2.29am ET the morning after election day to declare Trump as the winner.Given how close the race for the White House is expected to be, Americans might have to settle in for a long night – or even week – to learn who their next president is. More

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      Democrats are scrambling to keep the Senate. Could an old-school bipartisan help save it?

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      “Everybody’s got their comfy shoes?” Jacky Rosen scanned the room full of union workers who were preparing canvas for her in Reno, Nevada. The room erupted in response.“Those gym shoes are going to be worn out,” the Democratic senator told the crowd. “But that’s OK. Those holes in the bottom mean you’re doing the good work … helping return the Democratic majority in the United States.”Rosen has been wearing out her own shoes – crisscrossing the state and running one of the most aggressive and persistent re-election campaigns in the country as she fights to preserve her own career, and a precarious party advantage in the US Senate. Her campaign message has matched her practical footwear.Her platform has focused on a few big, national issues – including the cost of living and abortion – but also many small ones specific to her geographically vast, politically enigmatic state. She touts her record preserving a local postal hub in northern Nevada, bringing in money for a solar facility.“We’re trying to take care of what we have here, and we want our kids to have a good place to grow up,” she told members of Culinary Workers Union Local 226 – a powerful organisation representing tens of thousands of hospitality workers in the state. “That’s what everyone wants.”With early voting in Nevada already underway, Rosen holds an eight-point lead in polling averages. But she’s not letting up or taking any chances. Armies of volunteers from unions and a coalition of moderate and progressive political groups are knocking on doors on her behalf. And a barrage of advertisements, on the radio and television, in English and Spanish – are tearing down her opponent Sam Brown, a Donald Trump-backed Republican that Rosen has characterised as extreme.The race will be a test of whether candidates like her – a pragmatic, old-school bipartisan focused on local issues – can prevail in a politically polarised country. The outcome in Nevada will help determine which party controls the closely divided Senate, with the power to either impede of enable the agenda of Trump or Kamala Harris.In April, the non-partisan Cook Political Report had ranked the race a “toss-up” – in a swing state that appeared increasingly inscrutable to pollsters. In 2022, the Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto won her seat by fewer than 8,000 votes.And Rosen’s challenger, Sam Brown, a military veteran and Purple Heart recipient, had the makings of a model candidate – one who could help Republicans pick up a Senate seat and flip the chamber for the party. But by August, the polling agency had moved the race to “leaning Democrat” – citing growing enthusiasm for Democrats following Harris’s entry into the race, as well as Brown’s failure to drum up much enthusiasm.“Sam Brown just didn’t turn out to be the candidate that I think Republicans hoped he would be – in terms of energy, in terms of fundraising, in terms of just doing what’s needed,” said David Byler, chief of research at the polling firm Noble Predictive Insights. “And then you have a Democratic incumbent who doesn’t have any obvious flaws.”Paradoxically, Rosen’s unobtrusive temperament and heads-down approach to her first term could become her greatest asset. In Las Vegas and Reno, dozens of voters told the Guardian they weren’t particularly familiar with Rosen’s record – but she seemed to be doing just fine.“She does what she says she’s gonna do,” said Vivian Jackson, 69, of Las Vegas. “They try to attack her, but she’s not like that. She’s a real person.”“She’s occasionally said some stuff that’s given me pause,” said her neighbour Kenneth Logan, 65, a retired bartender and veteran who lives in west Las Vegas. On several issues, his politics are to the left of Rosen’s. “But I’m probably going to vote for her. She’s doing fine, and I can’t think of a candidate I’d vote for instead of her.”Rosen is a former computer programmer and synagogue president who was hand-picked to run for Congress, and then the Senate – seemingly out of nowhere – by Harry Reid, the former Democratic senate leader from Nevada who helped reshape the state’s politics over his long political career. In 2018 – after serving just two years in Congress – she unseated Republican senator Dean Heller with a five-point margin, largely relying on support from the state’s powerful labour unions and by emphasising her support for the Affordable Care Act and immigration reform. Heller had embraced Trump and voted to repeal the popular health care law.Six years later, Nevada – like the US at large – is much more politically polarised. Canvassers for the Libre Initiative, a conservative group affiliated with mega-donor Charles Koch’s political network, have been messaging to mostly Latino voters that Rosen is closely tied with the Biden administration. “She voted 94% of the time with Joe Biden,” said Eddie Diaz, a strategic director at Libre in Nevada. “And people are not better off than they were before.”But unlike many of her colleagues, Rosen has shied away from a national profile, forgoing the Democratic national convention in August in favour of staying in Nevada to campaign there.“I think she’s done a decent job so far, and that’s largely because she’s moderate, and bipartisan,” said Kim, 66, a mental health and wellness educator who said she didn’t want to share her full name because many of her family and clients are staunch Republicans.Her partner, Luis, 55, used to belong to the same synagogue as Rosen. “It’s a small world,” he said.Gladis Blanco, a political organiser with the Culinary Workers Union in Reno, said she credits Rosen for working with the administration to lower the cost of asthma medication. A single mother of five, Blanco said both she and several of her children have asthma – and new price caps on inhalers have transformed her family’s monthly budget. “When I tell voters about that they get so excited,” she said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionMeanwhile Miguel Martinez, a Reno city council member who has been canvassing on behalf of Rosen and Harris, said he was especially impressed that Rosen successfully fought against the US postal service plan to move all mail processing from its Reno facility to California, which locals, especially in remote regions of rural northern Nevada, worried would result in delayed medication deliveries and mail ballot processing. “That was a really big win in our community,” he said.And much like her mentor Reid, who was famous for funnelling funds to the state, Rosen has managed to win allies by delivering federal aid to the state’s cities and rural communities.In recent weeks, several rural Republican officials have backed Rosen over Brown – noting, simply, that they’re happy with the incumbent’s record. “Jacky Rosen helped bring Democrats and Republicans together to pass the largest infrastructure investment in a generation,” said Nathan Robertson, the Republican mayor of the small eastern Nevada town of Ely. “That law is now leading to better and safer roads for our residents, including $24m in federal transportation funding to improve Ely’s streets and sidewalks and revitalise our downtown.”Ed Lawson – the Republican mayor of Sparks, a small city just outside Reno – similarly cited all the funding she has brought to his region. Just a day prior to his endorsement, Rosen and Cortez Masto announced that they had secured $275m in federal funding to enhance a major highway corridor east of Sparks.“I’m a lifelong Republican who has never voted for a Democrat, but this November I’ll be voting for Jacky Rosen,” he said.It has helped Rosen’s cause that Brown has floundered though the election cycle.With early voting underway, the Senate Leadership Fund – the Republican party’s main outside group supporting Senate races – announced it would spend an addition $6.2m on TV, radio and digital ads for Brown. But it’s unclear if the funds will come too late.Brown has often leaned on his personal story in appeals to voters. In 2008, when he was a US army officer in Afghanistan, his Humvee hit a roadside bomb. The explosion caused third-degree burns and Brown had to endure dozens of reconstructive surgeries. The experience was transformative, Brown has said. “God saved me for a purpose,” he wrote in a recent campaign email.But while he has made clear why he’s running for office, he has struggled to define how for voters he would govern.Trump endorsed Brown just days before the primary elections and since then Brown has clung tightly to the former president and his platform. Brown said he wouldn’t have supported the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law or the Inflation Reduction Act – Biden administration programs that have brought unprecedented federal dollars into the state and help fund a range of projects. His past support for storing nuclear waste in Nevada’s Yucca Mountain – a third rail of politics in the state – has also left the impression that he is out of touch with Nevada.Such missteps have opened the opportunity for an easy critique – that Brown is a newcomer, one who moved from Reno to Dallas in 2018, and simply doesn’t know enough about the state.His muddled stance on abortion has also played badly. In attack ads, Rosen has called Brown a “Maga extremist” who would take away abortion rights. And though Brown has responded by saying he supports Nevada’s current law, which allows abortions up to 24 weeks – he has repeatedly dodged questions on whether he’ll support the state’s abortion ballot initiative, which aims to enshrine Nevada’s abortion rights in the state constitution.Nearly 70% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats said they opposed criminalising abortion, according to a recent poll by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland.Diane Gutierrez, a 65-year-old real estate agent based in Reno, said she is personally opposed to abortion, due to her faith, but believes it should remain protected. “I don’t believe that that should be taken away from any woman,” she said. “It’s just not OK to go backwards.”A registered non-partisan, Gutierrez said she’s voted for both Republican and Democratic candidates in the past. But in recent years, she has gotten more involved in volunteering with the Democratic party – and has largely steered clear of Republicans. “The party has had time, but they haven’t selected good candidates,” she said, adding they’ve failed to make a good case to voters. Initially, she thought Brown bucked the trend.“Being from a military family – my dad was a marine – I appreciate Sam Brown and thank him for his service because obviously he paid a huge price,” she said. “When you’re in the military, you have respect.”But his failure to define a platform of his own has been disappointing, she said. “I would like him to speak up more,” she said. “Where’s Sam Brown? Is he in Nevada? It’s like, ‘Sam – say something.’” More

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      Can this Trump-backed car dealer unseat the Ohio Democrat and win Republicans the Senate?

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      When the Democrat Sherrod Brown was first elected to the US Senate in 2006, Ohio, with its large urban populations and manufacturing industries, was fairly reliable territory for Democrats.Barack Obama claimed the state in 2008 and 2012 on his way to the White House. Democrats boasted strong representation in Ohio’s politics. Analysts zealously watched its voting patterns, such was its prominence as a bellwether state.In the years since, the state has become older, whiter and more conservative. Manufacturing has shrunk and population has stagnated.Brown is now the only Democrat holding a statewide seat in Ohio. And he is weeks out from a crucial Senate election against former luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno, a contest that could reshape US politics for years to come,For one, keeping Brown’s seat is crucial if Democrats hope to maintain their control of the US Senate.If Brown can win re-election, it would be notable in a state where Republicans have engineered a gerrymandering process to their advantage. They hold a supermajority in the state’s house of representatives and senate, and control the offices of the governor, secretary of state and attorney general as well as the state supreme court. Ohio’s second US senator is none other than Trump’s pick for vice-president, JD Vance.Brown is facing his most formidable on-comer yet – not because his Republican challenger has resonated particularly effectively with the Ohio electorate, but because Brown has, until now, never run in a year when Donald Trump was also on the ballot.For James Spencer, who has lived in Moraine, a working-class suburb of Dayton, for 27 years, the former president’s endorsement of Moreno is enough to secure his vote.As a retired construction contractor, he was unhappy to see the nearby General Motors plant that once employed thousands of blue-collar workers taken over by a Chinese auto glass manufacturer, Fuyao Glass. He believes the perceived problems associated with the company, including a raid by the Department of Homeland Security and other law enforcement agencies investigating allegations of financial crimes and labor exploitation in July, have only worsened since.In the past, he said, “Everything went around the plant. Your friends, your family. It was like a big GM community … We’ve lost so much in this area.”The declining fortunes experienced by white working-class Ohioans such as Spencer have been seized on by Trump and Moreno.However, Brown, the incumbent, is hoping his longstanding position as a champion of workers’ rights can carry him over the line.His campaign and supporters have largely disassociated Brown from the Biden administration and Kamala Harris campaign, despite the former helping to bring billions of dollars in infrastructure funding to rural parts of the state.“Brown has crossover appeal among Ohioans. The labor vote, which has increasingly gone to Trump, has also gone to Brown,” said Thomas Sutton, a political science professor and acting president of Baldwin Wallace University.“He shares some of the same positions as Trump when it comes to protecting local industry, manufacturing [and] support for farmers.”Ohioans have been bombarded with ads featuring Brown riding a speedboat while wearing a bullet-proof vest, a scene meant to depict his tough-on-immigration stance.Critics of Brown say that despite him being an apparent champion of the working class, he has mostly never held a non-political job himself (he worked as a teacher for a few years in the 1970s and 80s).A representative of Brown’s campaign said he was not available for comment for this article. Emails sent to Moreno’s campaign were unanswered.Trump’s endorsement of Moreno, a relative political novice, has energized Ohio’s Maga electorate.“Moreno is doing a pretty good job in handing his campaign over to the professional ad people. They’re using the scare tactics against Brown, tying him to the Biden administration,” said Sutton.A cryptocurrency industry Pac has spent $40m on Moreno’s campaign, while polling conducted for Moreno’s campaign suggests their candidate has a three-point lead over Brown. Other polls suggest a very close race.But Moreno’s run, and his record, are not flawless.Last year, he settled more than a dozen wage-theft lawsuits and was forced to pay more than $400,000 to two former employees of his car dealership.Recently, he has been criticized for telling attenders at a town hall that women over 50 shouldn’t be concerned about reproductive rights.“When you take away women’s abortion rights, you take away healthcare, and we in Ohio have voted that that’s none of your business,” said Amy Cox, a Democrat who is running this year to unseat a Republican incumbent in the US House of Representatives in a district that includes Moraine, Dayton and Springfield.Last year, Ohio Democrats and liberals were revitalized by a rare win at the ballot box when voters decided by a 13-point margin to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution.“Women and men are really energized by the fall of Roe, and Project 2025 is really motivating people to get out and vote,” said Cox.A bribery scandal involving a failing energy company and leading Ohio Republicans hasn’t helped them.The former speaker of the statehouse, Larry Householder, was jailed for 20 years last year for racketeering.“This is going to be won and lost in the three C’s,” the cities of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, said Sutton.And the election will be about “whether more typically Democratic areas have better mobilization and turnout to counteract what would be normal voter turnout in the Republican-leaning rural and small-town areas”, he added.For Spencer, who lives near the Fuyao Glass factory in Moraine, Moreno’s attack ads that feature Brown’s alleged failures on immigration have hit home.“I’m hoping that if Trump and JD Vance get in, they will deal with what’s going on over there,” he said. More

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      Can Democrats still win in rural states? Montana’s Senate race offers high-stakes litmus test

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      He was a young and little-known underdog. So Max Baucus, candidate for Congress, decided to trek 630 miles across Montana and listen to people talk about their problems. “As luck would have it, on the first day, I walked into a blizzard,” he recalls, pointing to a photo of his young self caked in snow. “It was cold! But the blizzard didn’t last that long.”Baucus shed 12lbs during that two and a half month journey in 1974. He also made friends. The Democrat defeated a Republican incumbent and would soon go on to serve as a Montana senator for 36 years. He never lost an election but saw his beloved home state undergo many changes. Among them is the prospect that Democrats like him are now facing political extinction.Jon Tester, a moderate Democrat who is one of Montana’s current senators, is fighting for his political life in the 5 November election. Opinion polls suggest that he is trailing his Republican rival Tim Sheehy. Control of the closely divided Senate, and the ability to enable or stymie the ambitions of a President Kamala Harris or President Donald Trump, could hinge on the outcome.The Senate race in Montana is widely seen as a litmus test of whether Democrats can still win in largely rural states that have embraced Trump’s Republican party. It is also a study in whether the type of hyperlocal campaigning that Baucus practised half a century ago can outpace shifts in demographics, media and spending that have rendered all politics national.View image in fullscreen“Montana was not yet discovered,” recalled Baucus, 82, sitting near old campaign posters – “Democrat Max Baucus walks for Congress” – in the brick-and-wood institute that bears his name on Bozeman’s idyllic main street. “There was much more retail politics, knocking on doors, shaking hands, going all around the community, knowing people personally. There’s a saying that Montana is one big small town and that was very true back then. It’s not quite as true today.”Tester, 68, a likable, unpretentious dirt farmer who is Montana through and through, epitomises the old retail politics. His campaign ads emphasise his rural background, including three fingers missing on his left hand — lost to a meat grinder that he still owns. He has been in the Senate for 18 years and praised for his work on behalf of the agriculture industry, military veterans and Native American communities.For some voters, such authenticity still resonates. Nels Johnson, 62, who works for a conservation organisation in Bozeman, said: “I’m going to vote for Jon Tester because he’s a third-generation Montanan, knows Montana values and what Montana hopes to be. His opponent is not as in touch.”View image in fullscreenSheehy, 37, is an outsider by comparison. The former Navy Seal moved to Montana in 2014 to raise a family and start an aerial firefighting business. He is also cast in the Trump mould: he has no previous political experience, is hostile to the media – he has given few interviews – and has been dogged by a string of controversies over exaggerated or misleading claims about his past.Marc Racicot, 76, a former governor of Montana and ex-chairman of the Republican National Committee turned Trump critic, said: “Mr Sheehy is an acolyte of Donald Trump and so the shadow of Trump is going to influence his candidacy – what he’s willing to do and able to do and also his character and capacity to govern in a way that reflects democratic virtues and values.”Nowhere is the contrast between the candidates more palpable than in their relationship to this year’s presidential nominees. In August, Sheehy stood alongside Trump, who won Montana overwhelmingly in the 2020 election, at a rally in Bozeman. No one is expecting Tester to hold a campaign event with Harris anytime soon. Indeed, he has declined to endorse her.View image in fullscreenIt is pragmatic calculation that recognises how Montana, which is about the size of Japan and has more cows than people, has altered since Tester came into office. The state has witnessed an influx of newcomers from Arizona, Washington state, California and Texas. During the coronavirus pandemic, Montana had the third-highest rate of growth in the country.The state’s politics have veered to the right. When Tester entered the Senate in 2007, Democrats held almost every statewide elected office in Montana from governor, secretary of state and attorney general to two of the state’s three seats in the House of Representatives. But Republicans have steadily picked off one Democratic stronghold after another. Tester is now the last Democrat standing in statewide office.He has survived three close races before but this looks set to be his toughest yet: he has never run before when Trump was at the top of the ballot. By distancing himself from the White House race, he is asking voters to split their ticket – something that is increasingly rare in the era of political tribalism and declining local media.View image in fullscreenMike Dennison, a veteran political journalist and analyst, said: “Republicans have totally tried to nationalise this race. Every chance they get, whenever they say Tester they say Biden or Harris. They want to tie him to the national Democrats and that’s absolutely what Tester does not want to do.“The Republicans want to say this race is for control of the Senate. Tester doesn’t want to talk about that at all. He wants to talk about himself and his issues. That is what’s going on here: Democrats have had a tough time in rural America and Montana is certainly rural America.”Republican-aligned groups are duly pumping millions of dollars into the race. Dennison added: “The amount of money in this race by Montana standards is just stunning. The prior race six years ago, when Tester ran and Trump came out to the state four times to campaign against him, was a $100m race. This is going to be a $250m race.”View image in fullscreenYet for many of the voters whose screens are saturated with endless campaign ads, the number one issue is affordability. Cities such as Bozeman and Missoula have housing crises with many local people priced out.Brian Guyer, emergency and supportive housing director at the Human Resource Development Council (HRDC), a non-profit organisation in Bozeman that runs a shelter with capacity for a hundred unhoused people, said there has been a sharp rise in individuals turning up with everything they own because of rent increases or shifts from long- to short-term rentals.Guyer said: “They end up seeking out overnight shelter because there aren’t alternatives for them, which has turned into an odd dynamic here. We have your standard shelter guests – people who are dealing with addiction – but now we also have people who are actively participating in the Bozeman workforce but the cost of living is so expensive that the shelter is their only option in terms of places to stay. In a perverse way, this is workforce housing.”View image in fullscreenSheehy has, unsurprisingly, attempted to fit the problem into a national framework. Borrowing from Trump’s central campaign theme, he has argued with little evidence that immigrants are coming to the state and driving up the price of housing.Zooey Zephyr, a progressive Democrat who is the first transgender member of the Montana state legislature, says: “We have seen from the top of the ticket of the Republican party an effort to take the issues our country is facing right now and blame it on an ‘other’. So, hey, let’s ignore the fact the state of Montana had a multibillion dollar surplus in 2023 and the legislature controlled by a Republican supermajority did not address the housing crisis adequately.“No, instead they’re going to stoke fears that it has something to do with immigration being the main driver. We know the demographics of Montana are largely white, partially Native American, but they’re going to drum up fear about a small percentage of people in the state and try to vilify them. That’s a fear-based playbook that we’ve seen Sheehy using but it is a playbook we have seen in every election cycle.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionView image in fullscreenIn fact, many of the new arrivals are members of Sheehy’s own party, quitting liberal cities and drawn to Montana’s clear air, open spaces and good schools (the TV series Yellowstone has also boosted the state’s profile). Now nearly half of Montanas were not born in the state. They know or care little for Tester’s long service or Montana’s independent streak.Luke Huffines, 28, a forester, moved to Montana a month ago and will vote for Sheehy – if he can register in time. “I like Sheehy’s background,” he said. “He’s Navy Seal and he’s definitely got businesses going on. He’s got private firefighting planes and whatnot and I feel like he’s getting a lot of backlash because he’s got his shit together. What’s wrong with capitalism?”Huffines is also a supporter of Trump. He explained: “He just doesn’t give a shit. And he gets so much backlash and he just keeps moving forward.”View image in fullscreenFor their part, Democrats have branded Sheehy as exactly the type of rich out-of-stater who bought up multiple hones across Montana and helped drive up costs for locals. A recent report by the National Association of Realtors found that, in terms of wages versus prices, Montana now has the least affordable properties in the nation.Shane Doyle, 52, a Native American who lives in Bozeman, describes it as a “reverse gold rush”. He said: “They’re coming here to add to what has already been a white, gated, almost resort community. The town is filled with Republicans who have come here to feel comfortable around other white people and enjoy the amenities of the outdoors and the recreation of the waters and the skiing and the hiking.“The only place where you see minorities here in Bozeman is either on the college campus or on the outskirts of town. I’m one of the very few Indians who lives here and has managed to find a career path that allows me the money to live here.”Montana has seven Indian reservations and almost 70,000 Native Americans, representing about 7% of its total population, according to census data. The voting bloc has long leaned Democratic but Republicans have recently courted tribal leaders hoping to gain their support. Sheehy has faced demands to apologise over past remarks he made about Native Americans being “drunk at 8am” and throwing beer cans at him on the Crow Reservation.View image in fullscreenTester has warned that Sheehy wants to sell off public lands to rich people and make Montana his own personal playground. Doyle, a member of the Crow tribe and executive director of the nonprofit group Yellowstone Peoples, regards Tester as a “staunch supporter” and believes that, if Democrats ran the state, there would be scope to bring back animals such as bison, elk, wolves and bears.

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      Doyle said: “Tim Sheehy says he wants to protect public lands but we’re all sceptical of that because we know he’s very interested in privatisation. There’s a lot of money to be made on Montana’s public lands and I’m afraid that, if we go full red, they’ll be more emboldened to act on their agenda. That’s going to be a bad thing for all Montanans because the crown jewel of Montana is our public lands. We have a lot to lose.”Just as in other parts of the US, Doyle has seen the Montana Republican party lurch to the “Make America great again” (Maga) right and fan the flames of extremism. “Bozeman has become the epicentre of white supremacy,” he said. “All of our elected officials here are along those lines. Bozeman has now become the home base for the Republican candidates and we haven’t seen a lot of support from them for Indian Country.”Doyle has seen truckers drive aggressively through town, flying flags and blowing black smoke. “We have groups here that are white supremacist and they are fully armed and they make themselves visible. They’re intimidating, they’re threatening and it’s no fun to live around them. They didn’t used to be here before Trump won.”While affordability and immigration loom large, Democrats are pinning their hopes on reproductive freedom in the aftermath of the supreme court’s decision to overturn the Roe v Wade decision. Next month’s general election ballot will include an initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, potentially galvanising many young, female and progressive voters.View image in fullscreenIf Tester is defeated by his less experienced but Trump-friendly opponent, one more blue dot will be extinguished. It will be a fresh data point in the great sorting between blue states and red states, between urban liberals and rural conservatives, between so-called coastal elites and flyover states.One factor in the polarisation is the decline of local newspapers and rise of talk radio and cable television, which offer national news through a partisan lens.Ken Toole, 69, a Democrat who served in the Montana state senate, said he and his neighours agree on identifying problems such as taxes, the concentration of wealth and monopolies in the meatpacking industry. “But they just have absolutely no faith that Democrats can deal with that and we’re talking about people who are sitting in their tractor all day listening to talk radio.“I work cattle with my neighbours and talk to them pretty regularly – it’s not like they’re foaming at the mouth. Over time, the brand of Democrats in areas like this has just been eroded. The difficult question for me is, how do you build it back?” More