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      Can Democrats still win in rural states? Montana’s Senate race offers high-stakes litmus test

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      He was a young and little-known underdog. So Max Baucus, candidate for Congress, decided to trek 630 miles across Montana and listen to people talk about their problems. “As luck would have it, on the first day, I walked into a blizzard,” he recalls, pointing to a photo of his young self caked in snow. “It was cold! But the blizzard didn’t last that long.”Baucus shed 12lbs during that two and a half month journey in 1974. He also made friends. The Democrat defeated a Republican incumbent and would soon go on to serve as a Montana senator for 36 years. He never lost an election but saw his beloved home state undergo many changes. Among them is the prospect that Democrats like him are now facing political extinction.Jon Tester, a moderate Democrat who is one of Montana’s current senators, is fighting for his political life in the 5 November election. Opinion polls suggest that he is trailing his Republican rival Tim Sheehy. Control of the closely divided Senate, and the ability to enable or stymie the ambitions of a President Kamala Harris or President Donald Trump, could hinge on the outcome.The Senate race in Montana is widely seen as a litmus test of whether Democrats can still win in largely rural states that have embraced Trump’s Republican party. It is also a study in whether the type of hyperlocal campaigning that Baucus practised half a century ago can outpace shifts in demographics, media and spending that have rendered all politics national.View image in fullscreen“Montana was not yet discovered,” recalled Baucus, 82, sitting near old campaign posters – “Democrat Max Baucus walks for Congress” – in the brick-and-wood institute that bears his name on Bozeman’s idyllic main street. “There was much more retail politics, knocking on doors, shaking hands, going all around the community, knowing people personally. There’s a saying that Montana is one big small town and that was very true back then. It’s not quite as true today.”Tester, 68, a likable, unpretentious dirt farmer who is Montana through and through, epitomises the old retail politics. His campaign ads emphasise his rural background, including three fingers missing on his left hand — lost to a meat grinder that he still owns. He has been in the Senate for 18 years and praised for his work on behalf of the agriculture industry, military veterans and Native American communities.For some voters, such authenticity still resonates. Nels Johnson, 62, who works for a conservation organisation in Bozeman, said: “I’m going to vote for Jon Tester because he’s a third-generation Montanan, knows Montana values and what Montana hopes to be. His opponent is not as in touch.”View image in fullscreenSheehy, 37, is an outsider by comparison. The former Navy Seal moved to Montana in 2014 to raise a family and start an aerial firefighting business. He is also cast in the Trump mould: he has no previous political experience, is hostile to the media – he has given few interviews – and has been dogged by a string of controversies over exaggerated or misleading claims about his past.Marc Racicot, 76, a former governor of Montana and ex-chairman of the Republican National Committee turned Trump critic, said: “Mr Sheehy is an acolyte of Donald Trump and so the shadow of Trump is going to influence his candidacy – what he’s willing to do and able to do and also his character and capacity to govern in a way that reflects democratic virtues and values.”Nowhere is the contrast between the candidates more palpable than in their relationship to this year’s presidential nominees. In August, Sheehy stood alongside Trump, who won Montana overwhelmingly in the 2020 election, at a rally in Bozeman. No one is expecting Tester to hold a campaign event with Harris anytime soon. Indeed, he has declined to endorse her.View image in fullscreenIt is pragmatic calculation that recognises how Montana, which is about the size of Japan and has more cows than people, has altered since Tester came into office. The state has witnessed an influx of newcomers from Arizona, Washington state, California and Texas. During the coronavirus pandemic, Montana had the third-highest rate of growth in the country.The state’s politics have veered to the right. When Tester entered the Senate in 2007, Democrats held almost every statewide elected office in Montana from governor, secretary of state and attorney general to two of the state’s three seats in the House of Representatives. But Republicans have steadily picked off one Democratic stronghold after another. Tester is now the last Democrat standing in statewide office.He has survived three close races before but this looks set to be his toughest yet: he has never run before when Trump was at the top of the ballot. By distancing himself from the White House race, he is asking voters to split their ticket – something that is increasingly rare in the era of political tribalism and declining local media.View image in fullscreenMike Dennison, a veteran political journalist and analyst, said: “Republicans have totally tried to nationalise this race. Every chance they get, whenever they say Tester they say Biden or Harris. They want to tie him to the national Democrats and that’s absolutely what Tester does not want to do.“The Republicans want to say this race is for control of the Senate. Tester doesn’t want to talk about that at all. He wants to talk about himself and his issues. That is what’s going on here: Democrats have had a tough time in rural America and Montana is certainly rural America.”Republican-aligned groups are duly pumping millions of dollars into the race. Dennison added: “The amount of money in this race by Montana standards is just stunning. The prior race six years ago, when Tester ran and Trump came out to the state four times to campaign against him, was a $100m race. This is going to be a $250m race.”View image in fullscreenYet for many of the voters whose screens are saturated with endless campaign ads, the number one issue is affordability. Cities such as Bozeman and Missoula have housing crises with many local people priced out.Brian Guyer, emergency and supportive housing director at the Human Resource Development Council (HRDC), a non-profit organisation in Bozeman that runs a shelter with capacity for a hundred unhoused people, said there has been a sharp rise in individuals turning up with everything they own because of rent increases or shifts from long- to short-term rentals.Guyer said: “They end up seeking out overnight shelter because there aren’t alternatives for them, which has turned into an odd dynamic here. We have your standard shelter guests – people who are dealing with addiction – but now we also have people who are actively participating in the Bozeman workforce but the cost of living is so expensive that the shelter is their only option in terms of places to stay. In a perverse way, this is workforce housing.”View image in fullscreenSheehy has, unsurprisingly, attempted to fit the problem into a national framework. Borrowing from Trump’s central campaign theme, he has argued with little evidence that immigrants are coming to the state and driving up the price of housing.Zooey Zephyr, a progressive Democrat who is the first transgender member of the Montana state legislature, says: “We have seen from the top of the ticket of the Republican party an effort to take the issues our country is facing right now and blame it on an ‘other’. So, hey, let’s ignore the fact the state of Montana had a multibillion dollar surplus in 2023 and the legislature controlled by a Republican supermajority did not address the housing crisis adequately.“No, instead they’re going to stoke fears that it has something to do with immigration being the main driver. We know the demographics of Montana are largely white, partially Native American, but they’re going to drum up fear about a small percentage of people in the state and try to vilify them. That’s a fear-based playbook that we’ve seen Sheehy using but it is a playbook we have seen in every election cycle.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionView image in fullscreenIn fact, many of the new arrivals are members of Sheehy’s own party, quitting liberal cities and drawn to Montana’s clear air, open spaces and good schools (the TV series Yellowstone has also boosted the state’s profile). Now nearly half of Montanas were not born in the state. They know or care little for Tester’s long service or Montana’s independent streak.Luke Huffines, 28, a forester, moved to Montana a month ago and will vote for Sheehy – if he can register in time. “I like Sheehy’s background,” he said. “He’s Navy Seal and he’s definitely got businesses going on. He’s got private firefighting planes and whatnot and I feel like he’s getting a lot of backlash because he’s got his shit together. What’s wrong with capitalism?”Huffines is also a supporter of Trump. He explained: “He just doesn’t give a shit. And he gets so much backlash and he just keeps moving forward.”View image in fullscreenFor their part, Democrats have branded Sheehy as exactly the type of rich out-of-stater who bought up multiple hones across Montana and helped drive up costs for locals. A recent report by the National Association of Realtors found that, in terms of wages versus prices, Montana now has the least affordable properties in the nation.Shane Doyle, 52, a Native American who lives in Bozeman, describes it as a “reverse gold rush”. He said: “They’re coming here to add to what has already been a white, gated, almost resort community. The town is filled with Republicans who have come here to feel comfortable around other white people and enjoy the amenities of the outdoors and the recreation of the waters and the skiing and the hiking.“The only place where you see minorities here in Bozeman is either on the college campus or on the outskirts of town. I’m one of the very few Indians who lives here and has managed to find a career path that allows me the money to live here.”Montana has seven Indian reservations and almost 70,000 Native Americans, representing about 7% of its total population, according to census data. The voting bloc has long leaned Democratic but Republicans have recently courted tribal leaders hoping to gain their support. Sheehy has faced demands to apologise over past remarks he made about Native Americans being “drunk at 8am” and throwing beer cans at him on the Crow Reservation.View image in fullscreenTester has warned that Sheehy wants to sell off public lands to rich people and make Montana his own personal playground. Doyle, a member of the Crow tribe and executive director of the nonprofit group Yellowstone Peoples, regards Tester as a “staunch supporter” and believes that, if Democrats ran the state, there would be scope to bring back animals such as bison, elk, wolves and bears.

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      Doyle said: “Tim Sheehy says he wants to protect public lands but we’re all sceptical of that because we know he’s very interested in privatisation. There’s a lot of money to be made on Montana’s public lands and I’m afraid that, if we go full red, they’ll be more emboldened to act on their agenda. That’s going to be a bad thing for all Montanans because the crown jewel of Montana is our public lands. We have a lot to lose.”Just as in other parts of the US, Doyle has seen the Montana Republican party lurch to the “Make America great again” (Maga) right and fan the flames of extremism. “Bozeman has become the epicentre of white supremacy,” he said. “All of our elected officials here are along those lines. Bozeman has now become the home base for the Republican candidates and we haven’t seen a lot of support from them for Indian Country.”Doyle has seen truckers drive aggressively through town, flying flags and blowing black smoke. “We have groups here that are white supremacist and they are fully armed and they make themselves visible. They’re intimidating, they’re threatening and it’s no fun to live around them. They didn’t used to be here before Trump won.”While affordability and immigration loom large, Democrats are pinning their hopes on reproductive freedom in the aftermath of the supreme court’s decision to overturn the Roe v Wade decision. Next month’s general election ballot will include an initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, potentially galvanising many young, female and progressive voters.View image in fullscreenIf Tester is defeated by his less experienced but Trump-friendly opponent, one more blue dot will be extinguished. It will be a fresh data point in the great sorting between blue states and red states, between urban liberals and rural conservatives, between so-called coastal elites and flyover states.One factor in the polarisation is the decline of local newspapers and rise of talk radio and cable television, which offer national news through a partisan lens.Ken Toole, 69, a Democrat who served in the Montana state senate, said he and his neighours agree on identifying problems such as taxes, the concentration of wealth and monopolies in the meatpacking industry. “But they just have absolutely no faith that Democrats can deal with that and we’re talking about people who are sitting in their tractor all day listening to talk radio.“I work cattle with my neighbours and talk to them pretty regularly – it’s not like they’re foaming at the mouth. Over time, the brand of Democrats in areas like this has just been eroded. The difficult question for me is, how do you build it back?” More

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      A Democratic ex-mayor is running for Senate in one of the most Republican US states. Does he have a chance?

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      The man in the blue shirt leveled his gaze at Glenn Elliott, who had just walked into his yard in the quiet, conservative town of Moundsville and introduced himself as a candidate to represent West Virginia in the US Senate.“It would take a lot to make me like any politician right now,” the man replied.It wasn’t an unfamiliar sentiment for Elliott, a former city mayor running as a Democrat to represent a state that has become one of the most Republican places in the country in recent years. Voter disenchantment is inevitable in West Virginia, which ranks at or near the bottom in most quality of life measures, from childhood poverty rates to overdose deaths. But Elliott has his ways of keeping the conversation going.“Well, I’m running against Jim Justice,” he replied. The man’s interest was piqued, and when he agreed to accept a flyer from Elliott, the tall, silver-haired 52-year-old exclaimed, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance!”View image in fullscreenJustice is the state’s Republican governor, who, because of West Virginia’s strongly conservative tilt, is viewed as a shoo-in for the seat being vacated by Joe Manchin, a one-time Democrat who is leaving the Senate after acting as a thorn in the side of Joe Biden during the first two years of his presidency.Democrats are scrambling to maintain their 51-seat majority in Congress’s upper chamber, a task made harder by Manchin’s decision last year not to run again, and by the fact that their best pathway to another two years in the majority requires the re-election of Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, and Montana’s Jon Tester, two senators representing red states.Recent polls have shown the latter coming up short against his Republican challenger, and the party is now hoping for perhaps even more unlikely victories by candidates in Florida and Texas. Should those efforts fail and Republicans take the Senate as Trump returns to the White House, they could confirm his rightwing picks for supreme court, cabinet and powerful federal regulatory agencies. Even if Harris wins, a Republican-controlled Senate could block her choices for the same positions.West Virginia was for decades a Democratic stronghold, but after giving Trump two of his biggest victories of any state in 2016 and 2020, the party’s leaders have essentially written off its Senate seat. The party’s decline was confirmed earlier this year, when Manchin switched his registration to independent, meaning there are no longer any Democrats in statewide office.Elliott is on a mission to change that, and prove Justice wrong. He argues that Justice, whose businesses are enveloped in a legal storm of lawsuits and unpaid bills, is not as popular as he appears, and is pressing on with his campaign despite little support from national Democratic power brokers.There are few polls of the race in West Virginia, but those that exist show Elliott, who Manchin has endorsed, badly trailing. Justice was up 62% to Elliott’s 28% in an August survey by MetroNews West Virginia, and another poll, commissioned by the Democrat’s campaign that same month, showed him doing only slightly better, with Justice’s lead at 58%.“I’ve never thought it was a high probability race, but I’ve always known there’s a chance,” Elliott said during an interview in his storefront campaign headquarters in downtown Wheeling, the city in West Virginia’s northern panhandle he led from 2016 until June. “Perhaps I’m naive, but I do believe that West Virginia voters can see the contrast in me and Governor Justice just in the way we’ve run this campaign.”Elliott may be on to something, though there are no indications it amounts to enough to win the race. In an interview with the Guardian, the man with the blue shirt, who did not want to give his name but said he was a registered independent and Donald Trump supporter, made clear he loathed politicians – Justice included.“Jim Justice is for those who are against us,” he said. Holding Elliott’s flyer, he said he would think about voting for him.View image in fullscreenTrump’s strength in West Virginia has political forecasters predicting no surprises in November. GOP candidates are expected to sweep the governor’s mansion and federal offices up for grabs, and party fundraisers and campaign organizations have sent little money to Elliott or any other candidate.“I think it absolutely was an error,” said Shawn Fluharty, a West Virginia house delegate who has managed to hang on to his seat representing Wheeling for the past 10 years, even as the state has grown more Republican.“I think that Jim Justice is not as well liked as he was probably two years ago when they started polling that race. And I believe there was an opportunity. If Glenn had the full backing of the DNC, this race would be a hell of a lot closer than what the polls currently show.”A businessman with interests in coal and agriculture, Justice was a Democrat as recently as 2017 then changed parties to become a reliable Trump ally, signing an abortion ban and a law banning transgender athletes from participating in public school female sports.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut West Virginians have also grown used to hearing stories of his companies being sued or not paying their bills. Last year, the justice department sued the governor, alleging his family companies owed more than $7.5m in unpaid penalties, and this year, a helicopter owned by one of his businesses was auctioned off to satisfy a judgment that resulted from a lawsuit involving a Russian mining firm.“I knew that there’s some vulnerability there, and frankly, thought that I could outwork him and work hard to overcome what would be a pretty built-in advantage for him as the incumbent governor with an R next to his name,” said Elliott.Polls of the Senate race found solid majorities of voters did not know much about Elliott, who has put issues such as healthcare, abortion rights and support for organized labor at the center of his campaign. In an effort to change that, he has visited every county in the state since winning his primary in May, knowing full well that to win, he would need to convince West Virginians who were sure to vote for Trump to also vote for him.“The former president definitely has the attention of a lot of voters who feel like they’re being ignored,” he said. “I’m not running against him, I’m running against Jim Justice.”

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      On a sunny Wednesday afternoon, he followed the highway that curves south along the Ohio river from Wheeling to go door knocking in Moundsville, arriving at the door of 86-year-old retired coalminer Bob Parsons. When Parsons learned that Elliott was a Democrat, he asked the former mayor to name one good thing Biden and Harris had done.Elliott mentioned that the president’s policies had helped pay for new sewage infrastructure in Wheeling. “They definitely missed opportunities and they screwed up the border,” he added.Though Parsons was a devout Trump supporter – he kept a sticker reading “It’s not my fault, I voted for Trump” on the back of his pickup truck’s camper shell – he also split his ticket between the parties, and was not impressed with Justice.“I just don’t see Jim going to DC much,” he said.Further down the street, Elliott encountered Melody Vucelick, a Democrat whose faith in the party was waning. Biden had disappointed her with his handling of immigration, and Vucelick said she was “totally against” Harris.“I really want Trump to get in there to close that border,” the 71-year-old retiree said in an interview. “Small towns like this, I feel for my own safety, being alone.”But in this one instance, Elliott need not worry. Vucelick said she still planned to support Democrats for every other spot on the ballot, and he will have her vote. More

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      Winning over Trump voters could be key for Arizona Democrat in Senate race

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      The crowd gathered in Chandler for a meet-and-greet with Ruben Gallego on a recent Saturday afternoon was an almost perfect snapshot of the voters Democrats need to win statewide in once-ruby red Arizona. There were small business owners, Latino youth activists, a retiree in a “Comma La” T-shirt, a handful of veterans, disaffected Republicans, at least one California transplant and a former Trump voter.The diverse attendance was one sign of what polls, strategists, Democrats and even some Republicans acknowledge: the race for an open Senate seat is the 44-year-old Democrat’s to lose, a surprising position for a progressive congressman in a purple state running against Trump-endorsed firebrand Kari Lake.In brief introductory remarks, Gallego shared his insights after nearly two years of campaigning across the Grand Canyon state. He bragged about the Arizona’s economic boom – a new battery manufacturing plant, the new semiconductor fab.But he acknowledged many Arizonans were “still hurting”. At a gas station in south Phoenix, Gallego said he had noticed motorists weren’t filling up their tanks all the way. He recalled his family’s own financial struggles growing up, raised alongside his three sisters by a single, immigrant mother in a cramped apartment outside of Chicago.“That’s the kind of thing that I want to bring to the US Senate: a real understanding of what people are dealing with and what we should be doing to make their life a little better,” he said, “to just breathe a little bit easier and have a chance at the American Dream.”Across town, his opponent, the former TV news anchor Lake channeled Trump, whom she has molded herself after since her foray into politics two years ago. She had called an “emergency” press conference to discuss Kamala Harris’s visit to the Arizona-Mexico border the previous day, tying Gallego – who did not accompany the vice-president – to what she described as the administration’s “abject failure” on border security.She scolded the media for not doing more to hold Gallego responsible for migration, which has fallen sharply after reaching record highs last year. She accused Gallego of being “controlled” by the drug cartels because of his long-estranged father’s criminal history.“We need to be calling out what he is about,” she said. “I want to end the cartels.”The dueling campaign events underscored the very different paths the two candidates are charting as they vie to succeed Senator Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrat turned independent leaving the chamber.As early voting begins in Arizona, polling shows Gallego with a consistent edge in a contest that could be pivotal to determining which party controls the Senate. The Democrat is trouncing Lake in fundraising, giving him more local airtime and mailbox presence. And surveys and interviews suggest he is winning a sizable, perhaps decisive, chunk of Trump voters.View image in fullscreenLake has alienated some conservatives and independents with her attacks on the Republican establishment and her embrace of election denialism, including in her own failed bid for governor in 2022, which she claims – baselessly – was stolen.But it isn’t over yet: Lake delivered a polished performance during Wednesday night’s debate with Gallego, and could pull out more attacks on her opponent in the final stretch – including his divorce records from his split with the Phoenix mayor, Kate Gallego, which may be unsealed this month. After the debate, she got a boost from the only Republican who seems to matter.“The Trump-endorsed Senate Candidate in Arizona crushed her Liberal Democrat Opponent,” Trump wrote on Truth Social after the debate. “Kari will help me Secure our Border, Stop Inflation, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”But Trump, who lost Arizona in 2020 by less than 11,000 votes, is able to stitch together a coalition of loyalists and independents that even his most adherent Maga acolytes – and Lake is one of them – can’t always replicate. Paul Bentz, a pollster at Arizona public affairs firm HighGround, ran a recent poll that showed the presidential race essentially deadlocked. But in the Senate contest, Gallego led Lake 51% to 41%.The survey showed both Trump and Lake losing more Republican voters than Harris or Gallego are among Democrats, but Trump is losing fewer of them – and Trump is ahead of Harris with independents, unlike Lake, who lags Gallego with the group.Billboards financed by the Arizona Republican party that boast of “team unity” don’t include Lake – instead, Trump is alongside out-of-staters like JD Vance, Elon Musk, Robert F Kennedy, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tulsi Gabbard. Lake’s campaign bus, on the other hand, is wrapped in a photo of her and Trump. “Endorsed by President Trump” is written in larger font than Lake’s own name.“The vast majority of the money and the vast majority of the effort is in supporting Trump,” Bentz said. “It does not seem to be following the rubric that we’ve seen in past elections to help the down ticket that’s building a slate of support.“It’s not vote Republican, it’s vote Trump.”Even so, Lake supporters are hoping the polling numbers – which Lake herself has said differ from what she’s seeing internally – won’t bear out. A Republican operative involved in the effort to elect conservative candidates in the state said high turnout in a presidential election year with Trump at the top of the ticket could bring Lake over the line.Lake did not respond to a request for an interview, and Gallego was not made available for an interview.Building a coalitionYears of political upheaval – Arizona has had six senators in just over a decade – and the Republican party’s Trumpian turn, has created an opening for Democrats in the land of Barry Goldwater and John McCain. Waves of new residents, many coming from more liberal parts of the country, and a suburban shift away from Republicans, has changed Arizona’s political landscape.If Gallego wins in November, he will be the first Latino to represent Arizona in the Senate while Lake would be the first Republican woman elected to serve the state in the chamber.Gallego announced his campaign for Senate in early 2023, effectively daring Sinema to stay in the race after infuriating Democrats by blocking pieces of Joe Biden’s agenda. Without a primary opponent, he had ample time to introduce himself to voters across the vast state, from the tribal lands to the borderlands and the populous Maricopa county.He has a compelling personal story, repeated in television ads that have been airing for months: the son of a Mexican and Colombian immigrant, who was raised by his mother and worked odd jobs at meat-packing plants and pizza shops to earn extra money for his family.A Harvard graduate, he enrolled in the Marine Corps, and was deployed to Iraq as part of a unit that saw some of the heaviest casualties of the war. On the trail, he often recalls how combat training kicked in on January 6, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. Photos from the day showed Gallego directing his colleagues how to put on gas masks and helping them evacuate the chamber.By contrast, Bentz said Lake hasn’t spent much time trying to reintroduce herself to voters, perhaps confident that they know her from TV or from her 2022 bid. For more than a year following her defeat, Lake was in the news for her fruitless attempts to overturn the results. She was sued for defamation by the Republican election official, after he claimed she upended his life with her false accusations that he rigged the election against her. She ultimately declined to defend her statements in the case.During the debate, Lake repeatedly accused Gallego of undergoing an “extreme makeover” to blot out his progressive record in the House and cultivate a more moderate appeal. But Lake has struggled to paint Gallego as too far left.The Congressman has tacked more toward the ideological center in the past year, particularly on immigration. In a state where activists remember him marching for immigrant rights after a Republican-led crackdown on undocumented workers, he is now touting his support for a border security bill that would limit asylum and provide more resources to hire border agents.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBecky Wyatt, who hosted Gallego at Fuse Flex Space, the co-working space she just opened weeks before, called the choice in November a “no-brainer”.“There’s just such a character flaw difference between the two Senate candidates,” Wyatt said.This year, Lake has attempted to mend fences. The state’s former Republican governor, Doug Ducey, set aside their feud and endorsed her bid for Senate earlier this summer. Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, a hardline conservative seeking to replace Mitch McConnell as party leader, appeared as her surrogate after the debate.But her harsh words toward McCain Republicans still linger. During her campaign for governor, she told this subset of Republicans to “get the hell out” and claimed she “drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine”.Gibson McKay, a Republican lobbyist, was an aide to McCain. He donated thousands of dollars to Lake’s gubernatorial campaign, but her comments on his former boss soured him. He’s now one of the Trump-Gallego crossover voters who would be needed for both the former president and Democratic congressman to win the state.View image in fullscreen“John McCain was my friend. She can play that game with her Turning Point friends, and she’ll never have my support because of that,” he said. “It’s mean, it’s ugly, and it’s what’s tearing down on the fabric of American politics.”He’s friends – “a friend friend, not like a political friend” – with Gallego and his name was on a fundraiser for the congressman this year. A conservative, he aligns more with Lake on policy, but a few factors, including his personal friendship with Gallego, played into his decision to back the Democrat this cycle. He also believes Gallego is more authentic than Lake, just as he believes Trump is more authentic than Harris.McKay’s support for Gallego hasn’t gone over well with some of his Republican friends. McKay is an elected precinct committeeman, the foot-soldiers of political activism. Republicans in his legislative district censured him for supporting the Democrat, and there was an effort afoot to try to remove his duties in his elected role.McKay says he hasn’t seen evidence Lake is trying to make peace, and it wouldn’t ring true if she tried it. Earlier this year, McCain’s daughter, Meghan McCain, rejected the idea, saying: “No peace, bitch. We see you for who you are – and are repulsed by it.”Debate gives Lake a boostOn Wednesday, Lake and Gallego met on stage for their only televised debate this cycle. From the jump, Lake, comfortable in front of the camera after decades anchoring the television news, attacked Gallego over immigration, her strongest issue.She claimed a red-eye flight out of Phoenix’s airport “looks like a migrant encampment” because migrants first come to Arizona before shipping out elsewhere.Gallego, stiff and sticking to talking points, pushed Lake on abortion and her shifting positions. (She had previously expressed support for Arizona’s pre-statehood abortion ban before the Supreme Court upheld the law, sparking a massive backlash. She backed the state GOP’s effort to repeal the law and reinstate a 15-week ban. Gallego has said he would support a federal law restoring Roe, which protects abortion until the point of fetal viability, roughly about 22 weeks of pregnancy.)The two issues typically top lists of importance for voters in Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico. An abortion ballot measure to increase access to the procedure beyond the current 15-week ban is also before voters in November, probably buoying turnout and expected to pass easily.Lake stumbled a bit on her reproductive health care responses, erroneously calling in-vitro fertilization “UVF” – it is abbreviated IVF – while repeatedly pointing out she was a woman who had many women in her family and attempting to pivot.“I’m astounded that he actually knows the difference between a woman and a man,” she cracked at one point, “because I thought there were, what, 147 different genders. I do care about women’s rights.”Lake also made it personal: she called Gallego a sexual harasser and brought up family ties to drug cartels, a charge Gallego ignored. He previously grew emotional while addressing the claims in a press conference, saying he’d worked his entire life to get away from his father’s misdeeds.Gallego repeatedly raised Lake’s refusal to accept her defeat in the 2022 race for Arizona governor. He called her dangerous, noting how her election lies led one election official to need private security because of increased threats.The debate ended with Gallego sharing his personal story, his biggest asset on the campaign trail. “I’m a very lucky man,” he said to the camera in a closing statement. “I’m just lucky to be born in the best country in this world. And by all counts, I shouldn’t even be here. My mom raised us alone, and with a real belief in the American dream, and a real want to succeed, I got to where I am.”Given the final word, Lake promised that as a senator she would usher in a “strong, secure border” and “strong Trump economy”. Then she echoed her opponent.“If there’s any kiddos watching, I don’t want you to worry,” Lake concluded. “I want you to dream really big. I want you to know that we’re going to turn this country around, and your American dream will become reality.” More

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      Can ex-governor’s anti-Trump stance swing key Senate seat for Republicans?

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      At a conservative thinktank on 14th Street in Washington DC, awaiting Larry Hogan, the Republican candidate for US Senate in Maryland, one staffer turned to another. “It’s nice having something to vote for, for a change,” the staffer wryly said. Shortly after, the former governor arrived for his speech at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (Jinsa), part of his campaign to win in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1980.When he left the executive mansion in Annapolis last year, Hogan told his friendly audience, he had governed for eight years as a popular moderate but had not been looking for another job – “And frankly, I didn’t yearn to be a part of the divisiveness and dysfunction in Washington,” he said.“But when I saw a bipartisan package to secure our border and to support Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan and other American allies fail because people were told [by Donald Trump] to vote against a critical [immigration] bill that they claimed to be for, it made me frustrated enough that I knew I had to step up and try to do something about the mess in Washington.”Washington is not Maryland but the Old Line State is just a few miles up 14th from Jinsa. There, Hogan faces the Prince George’s county executive, Angela Alsobrooks, for an open seat in November – a race in which the Democrat, who if she wins will be only the third Black woman ever elected to the US Senate, enjoys significant polling leads.The race has become potentially decisive in determining Senate control, and a test of anti-Trump sentiment on the right. Significant spending and endorsements are pouring in. Highly regarded as a local leader and “tough on crime” Democrat, Alsobrooks defeated a DC establishment candidate, the congressman David Trone, in her primary and is now piling on praise from party grandees. She recently released an ad featuring Barack Obama and secured support from the Washington Post.On Thursday night, the two candidates will meet for a high-stakes debate.In practical terms, it takes 51 votes – or 50 if your party holds the presidency – to control the Senate. Democrats currently hold it 51-49 but face tough contests to hold seats in Republican-leaning states such as Montana and Ohio. It means Maryland counts this year, and Hogan’s toughest challenge may lie in persuading enough Democratic voters they can trust him should Republicans retake the chamber with him as the 51st vote. In turn, Democrats know that if they cannot hold so deep blue a state as Maryland, they will in all likelihood lose control of the Senate.Hogan is therefore seeking to depict himself as an antidote to Trump – and his rival as too far left. At Jinsa, talking foreign policy, he criticized Trump but he also knocked Alsobrooks, including for “repeatedly demand[ing] that Israel enact an immediate and unilateral ceasefire, and [for calling] for cutting off critical military aid”.As popular as Hogan is – he stepped down as governor with a 77% approval rating – polling suggests that message is not landing. According to 538, since one tied poll in August, Alsobrooks’s lead has ranged from five to 17 points.Hogan begged to differ. “I think it’s a very close race,” he said. “I’ve always been an underdog in every one of my races.“There are people out there that we’ve still got to convince,” he added, “and we’ve got [then] 34 more days to do it, and I feel confident we’re going to win the race. It’s tough, though. I mean, we’re a very blue state, and we’re overcoming a huge deficit at the top of the ticket.”Trump has been called many things, but “huge deficit” may be a new one. Hogan has said he won’t vote for Trump (or Kamala Harris), but must nonetheless fend off persistent questions about the man who rules his party. One recent ad from Hogan’s campaign deplored the “horror” of January 6. And yet, as Republicans from Trump and the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, on down know, sometimes a candidate must be allowed away from the party line.In Maryland, Hogan is free to be Hogan. That’s to his advantage. To his disadvantage, Democrats from the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, to Alsobrooks on down know Hogan has a bigger problem.View image in fullscreenIn June 2022, in the case Dobbs v Jackson, the US supreme court to which Trump appointed three hardliners removed the federal right to abortion. Two years on, Hogan insists he will not let his party go further.“[Alsobrooks’s campaign] want[s] to focus on making it a cookie-cutter Democratic talking points race but it’s not, because I have a different position than most Republicans,” he said at the Jinsa event. “And so, you know, I’ve promised to be a sponsor to codify Roe v Wade, the 1973 ruling that previously safeguarded abortion rights, so that nobody comes between a woman and her doctor in any state in America, and to sponsor a bill to protect IVF.”He also insisted that “most people are concerned about the economy. They’re concerned about affordability, inflation, they’re concerned about crime in their communities, and they’re concerned about securing the border and fixing [the] broken immigration system.”Among Democratic rejoinders: while a member of the executive committee of the Republican Governors Association, Hogan worked to elect allies in states that now have stringent abortion bans. In his own state, in 2022, he vetoed a bill to expand abortion access. The same year, he said Trump “nominated incredible justices to the supreme court”, a comment Democrats have brought back to haunt him. Hogan says he was not referring to Dobbs but Alsobrooks is happy to keep the spotlight on the issue. As she recently said: “I think my opponent’s record is very clear where abortion care is concerned.”Many Americans fear a national abortion ban, should Trump be president again. Hogan said he had been against that for decades “and I’ll be the one of the ones standing up, regardless of who the president is or who’s in control of Senate”. But he also said he would not support reform to the filibuster, the Senate rule that requires 60 votes for most legislation, in order to codify Roe.“I think it’s a terrible idea, because it’s actually something that … my opponent and Donald Trump both agree on. They want to be able to jam things through on a 51-vote [majority]. ”Right now, [the Senate is] a deliberative body where we actually have to find bipartisan cooperation and common sense and kind of common ground for the common good. That’s what I did in Maryland with a 70% Democratic legislature. We got things done.”A few days after Hogan’s event at Jinsa, about 40 miles (65km) north-east in Baltimore, Democrats gathered at a canvassing hub. Once a wedding venue, the Majestic Hall of Events was surrounded by less-than-majestic auto shops and down-at-heel churches. Inside, Alsobrooks addressed a crowd organized by D4 Women in Action, linked to Delta Sigma Theta, one of the Divine Nine Black women’s sororities, to which Alsobrooks belongs.View image in fullscreenIn her speech, Alsobrooks spoke about her links to Baltimore and “the number one issue across our state, and the thing that people most desire to have: economic opportunity”. She also took shots at her opponent. “What did he do [as governor] when he had the opportunity to stand up for all of our families in Baltimore? He sent back $900m to the federal government.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThat was a reference to a 2015 decision to scrap a light rail project, a call that attracted lawsuits. But Alsobrooks also looked to the national stage, and the issue she wants foremost in voters’ minds.“This race is bigger than both of us,” Alsobrooks told the Guardian. “Bigger than Larry Hogan the person. It’s bigger than Angela the person. It’s about issues and about the future. It is about reproductive freedom.”Alsobrooks listed other policy priorities – “sensible gun legislation … economic opportunity” – as part of a platform “that really does favor hard-working people, middle-class families, and that is about preserving freedoms and democracy”. But protecting abortion rights was a theme to which she returned.At Jinsa, Hogan said Democrats were trying to turn a state race into a national contest. Alsobrooks embraced the charge: “The former governor thinks he’s running to go back to Annapolis. We’re actually running to go to Washington DC, and we would represent Marylanders there.”She added: “This [Republican Senate] caucus is led by people like Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Rick Scott, Mitch McConnell, and they … have really proclaimed war on the reproductive freedoms of women. They have very clear records, and [Hogan has] aligned himself with the party whose policies do not align with the average Marylander.”Much has been made of the warm relationship Hogan and Alsobrooks enjoyed when Hogan was governor. Asked about an unearthed Hogan comment – that Alsobrooks was a better Prince George’s county executive than his own father, the late congressman Lawrence Hogan – Alsobrooks said: “He has become, in a lot of ways, the kind of politician he says he despises, one who’s very disingenuous.“But I think that people see through it. Marylanders are very savvy and they have seen how he has changed … and I think they will see through the disingenuous nature of his campaign, and will again vote to keep Maryland Democratic.”Keeping Maryland Democratic will require turning out the vote. At the canvassing hub, one phone-banker wearily said: “Put in two shifts this morning.” A friend smiled back: “Only a hundred more to go.”The same Jinsa staffer who earlier had said it was “nice to have something to vote for” with Hogan also said that he hadn’t felt so good about a Senate race since 2006 – which was still a defeat – in which “getting more than 40% felt like a moral victory”.Back then, Ben Cardin, the Democrat retiring this year, beat Michael Steele, a Hogan-esque GOP moderate. Steele went on to chair the Republican National Committee, then became an MSNBC host and Never Trumper. Asked for his view of the current Maryland race, Steele was not as convinced of an Alsobrooks win as many other observers.“This race was not a competitive race until Larry got into it,” Steele said. “He is a popular two-term governor who left, I think, an important mark on how politics play out in Maryland for Republicans and made this very competitive out of the gate, largely because people had come to trust his style of governance.“It’s open, it’s compassionate, it’s concerned … I think a lot of people remember that.”Steele said Hogan had a good chance of attracting split-ticket voters – rare beasts, precious to any campaign, in this case prepared to back Harris for president but Hogan for Senate.It all added up to a warning for anyone expecting a comfortable Democratic win.“I think the latest polling has Alsobrooks up by 11,” Steele said. “I don’t believe that, largely because when I’m out in neighborhoods talking to people, and from everything I can piece together, this race is a lot tighter than the traditionalists who look at Maryland think it to be.”

      This article was amended on 11 October 2024. It originally stated that Larry Hogan chaired the Republican Governors Association. He was actually a member of its executive committee. More

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      Wisconsin Senate race tightens as rival attacks Baldwin over LGBTQ+ support

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      As the race between the Wisconsin senator Tammy Baldwin and her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde, tightens, the Hovde campaign and outside groups supporting the candidate have ramped up efforts to tie Baldwin to funding for LGBTQ+ care for youth – echoing the anxieties and biases of the rightwing “parental rights” movement.According to the non-partisan campaign analysis group Cook Political Report, the race between Hovde and Baldwin – in which Baldwin previously enjoyed an ample lead – is now a toss-up. Internal polling reportedly reflects that trend. The race in Wisconsin is one of a handful that could determine control of the Senate next year.A recent ad by the Senate Leadership Fund, a Super Pac that seeks to elect Republicans to the Senate, claims that “Baldwin supported providing puberty blockers and sex change surgeries to minor children”. Another ad, by the Hovde campaign, alleges Baldwin “ensured hundreds of thousands of our tax dollars went to a Madison nonprofit that pushes an aggressive LGBTQ agenda on kids”.The first advertisement, which claims Baldwin vowed support for “sex change surgeries” for minors on 4 October, 2023, appears to be referring to a post that Baldwin made on that date in support of Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers’ decision to veto a GOP-backed bill that would have banned gender-affirming care for minors in Wisconsin.Baldwin’s full post reads: “Trans kids deserve to feel safe and welcome in Wisconsin, not discriminated against. They deserve the freedom to just be kids, play sports, and get the health care they need, all without politicians butting in. Thanks for standing up for LGBTQ+ kids, @GovEvers.”Research consistently indicates that gender-affirming healthcare, including puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapy, can be lifesaving for youth experiencing gender dysphoria – a condition that many trans people experience and that is associated with depression and even suicide. In Wisconsin, healthcare providers who offer gender-affirming care to minors do so only with parental consent and do not perform genital surgeries on minors.The second advertisement, alleging she helped fund a non-profit promoting an “aggressive LGBTQ agenda”, refers to federal dollars Baldwin earmarked for Briarpatch Youth Services, an organization that supports at-risk and homeless youth – and provides some programming for LGBTQ+ youth.In a September episode of the Vicki McKenna Show, a rightwing talk radio program in Wisconsin, Hovde falsely claimed that Baldwin had given taxpayer money “to a transgender clinic”, apparently in reference to her Briarpatch donation.“Briarpatch Youth Services deals with some of the most difficult situations facing youth, including youth homelessness,” wrote Jill Pfeiffer, executive director of Briarpatch, in an email. “Regardless of political talking points, we continue to focus on strengthening our community by making sure youth facing hardships have access to voluntary resources and services they need to flourish and succeed.”Although the number of transgender people in the United States has not changed significantly over time, with roughly 1% of youth aged 13-17 identifying as trans, the minority group has nonetheless faced increasing scrutiny and attacks in recent years. Anti-trans sentiment has dovetailed with the rise of the so-called “parental rights” movement, which seeks to limit discussions of issues like race, gender and sexuality in the classroom.In a statement, a Hovde campaign spokesperson, Zach Bannon, wrote that Hovde “believes any effort to push conversations about sexuality and gender identity on kids without parental knowledge is just plain wrong and taxpayer dollars should not be supporting those programs”, in reference to Briarpatch’s confidential support group for LGBTQ+ youth.This year Democrats, who narrowly control the Senate, face an unfavorable map – with sitting senators in places including West Virginia, Ohio and Montana defending seats in deep red jurisdictions. The Wisconsin race, which has narrowed in recent weeks, forms a critical piece of the puzzle.Arik Wolk, the Democratic party of Wisconsin’s Rapid Response Director, called the ads “a pretty desperate and disgusting attack that is mainly designed to detract from Eric Hovde’s record and unpopularity with the people of Wisconsin”. Wolk also pointed to a Hovde ad that draws attention to Baldwin’s partner Maria Brisbane’s work as a financial adviser and alleges Baldwin is “in bed with Wall Street” as an example of the Hovde campaign highlighting Baldwin’s identity as a gay woman. “Wisconsinites have made it clear that they support Tammy Baldwin, regardless of her sexual identity,” said Wolk.Bannon, the Hovde campaign spokesman, disputed this characterization in a statement – calling it an “effort to distract from the facts of this conflict of interest” and “a disservice to the people of Wisconsin who deserve transparency”. More

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      Can Republicans flip the Senate in November? – podcast

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      Whoever gets into the White House, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, they will need the two chambers of Congress to align with their values to get a lot of what they want to achieve done. And the race for the Senate is really hotting up.
      This week, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, about whether Senate Democrats can defend their narrow control over the upper chamber, and what happens if the person who wins the White House doesn’t see eye-to-eye with those in power in Congress

      How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know More

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      Memoir contradicts Republican Senate candidate’s ‘below the poverty line’ tale

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      At a recent campaign event in Whitehall, Montana, the Republican US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy told voters that a decade ago, when he set up the aerial firefighting company through which he made his fortune, he and his wife were living “below the poverty line”.“My wife and I homeschool our kids,” Sheehy said. “We made that decision several years ago. She’s a Marine, naval academy graduate, she could have a great job and even when our company was tiny, and we … were below the poverty line and making no money, we said: ‘No … the most important job in the world is being a mother.’ And she’s doing that every day.”A little more than a month from election day, in a race that could decide control of the Senate, such hardscrabble tales are helping Sheehy lead the Democratic incumbent, Jon Tester, a longtime Montana farmer. The two men are due to debate in Missoula on Monday night.But Sheehy’s claim about living in poverty while building his company, Bridger Aerospace, is contradicted by his own memoir.In that book, Mudslingers, published last year, the former navy Seal writes that when he and his wife contemplated leaving the military, in 2013, they “weren’t wealthy, but … did have resources”.This, he writes, was in part thanks to having “lived quite frugally during our time in the military, spending a lot of time deployed, accumulating savings, taking advantage of base housing and meals, and of course spending almost nothing while on deployment.“So, we had amassed a nest egg of close to $300,000. I also had some money that my parents had been putting away for me since I was a kid. All told, we had roughly $400,000 to allocate toward building a business and establishing a new life.”In 2014, as Sheehy got his company going, the US health department defined the poverty guideline for a family of three in Montana as $19,790. The poverty threshold, as defined by the US Census Bureau, was $19,055.By his own account, Sheehy set out to build Bridger Aerospace with 20 times that – a sum he calls “not exactly chump change”.Sheehy has also regularly claimed to have “bootstrapped” his company, a term the Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines as “to promote or develop by initiative and effort with little or no assistance”.Yet in his book, Sheehy describes both receiving the $100,000 his parents had saved for him and asking his father and brother to help him pay $500,000 to buy necessary planes. His father, he writes, “backed me, financially and emotionally, without expecting anything in return”, while his brother was given an “equity stake in the business”.Sheehy also describes how in 2017 his brother helped secure investment from Blackstone Group, the New York private equity behemoth led by Stephen Schwartzman, a top Republican donor, in order to pull off a $200m aircraft order.Sheehy grew up in Minnesota and attended the US Naval Academy in Maryland. Describing his early days in Montana, he has often told of how he, his wife and their first child started out living in a tent. That might boost his claim of living below the poverty line, but Sheehy has also described how living under canvas was a choice.Having purchased “60 undeveloped acres”, Sheehy writes in his book, “the simple and probably sane thing to do would have been to rent an apartment in town while we got the business off the ground”. But they chose to build a house, and to camp while the structure went up.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionSheehy’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. News of Sheehy’s book contradicting his own claim about living in poverty, however, follows similar reporting regarding his claims about his background.The Montana Free Press was among outlets to report that though Sheehy has said he grew up in “rural Minnesota … surrounded by farmland”, he in fact “grew up in a multimillion-dollar lake house, learned to fly under the tutelage of a neighbour, [and] attended a private high school”.In May, the Daily Beast reported that Sheehy’s campaign trail claims about how he left the US military do not match those in his book. Sheehy’s campaign responded angrily, claiming an attack on his patriotism and service. Then, this month, the Guardian reported documents seemingly showing Sheehy did not follow Department of Defense protocol for clearing sections of Mudslingers that deal with military subjects, including deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. The campaign did not respond.Regardless, Sheehy seems well-placed to secure a Senate seat, holding seven- and eight-point leads over Tester, a three-term moderate Democrat.Federal figures regarding poverty in Montana in 2014 do back up one claim in Sheehy’s book. Describing how he hired his first employees, he says he paid just $1,500 a month, amounting to $18,000 a year, to his first chief pilot, Tim Cherwin.Cherwin brought with him “the chain-smoking desert rat Steve Taylor, who would become our director of maintenance”. Sheehy, who says he started the business with $400,000, says both men were “earning wages below the poverty line”. More

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      US Senate votes unanimously to hold hospital CEO in criminal contempt

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      The US Senate has voted unanimously to hold the CEO of Steward Health Care in criminal contempt for failing to comply with a congressional subpoena – marking the first time in more than 50 years that the chamber has moved to hold someone in criminal contempt.On Wednesday, the Senate voted to hold Ralph de la Torre in contempt of Congress after the 58-year-old head of the Massachusetts-based for-profit healthcare system – which declared bankruptcy earlier this year – ignored a congressional subpoena and failed to appear at a hearing over the hospital chain’s alleged abuse of finances on 12 September.During Wednesday’s session, Bernie Sanders, Vermont senator and chair of the Senate’s health, education, labor and pensions (Help) committee, said: “The passage of this resolution by the full Senate will make clear that even though Dr de la Torre may be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, even though he may be able to buy fancy yachts and private jets and luxurious accommodations throughout the world, even though he may be able to afford some of the most expensive lawyers in America, no, Dr de la Torre is not above the law.“If you defy a congressional subpoena, you will be held accountable, no matter who you are or how well-connected you may be,” Sanders said.Similarly, Bill Cassidy, Louisiana senator and ranking member of Help, said: “Steward’s mismanagement has nationwide implications affecting patient care in more than 30 hospitals across eight states.“Through the committee’s investigation, it became evident that a thorough review of chief executive officer Dr Ralph de la Torre’s management decisions was essential to understand Steward’s financial problems and its failure to serve its patients,” Cassidy said of De la Torre, who was paid at least $250m by Steward Health Care as the hospital chain’s administrators struggled with facility problems, staffing shortages and closures.Investigations by the Boston Globe revealed that as more than a dozen Steward Health Care patients died in recent years after being unable to receive adequate treatment, De la Torre embarked on various jet travels and private yacht excursions across the Caribbean and French Riviera.The Boston Globe also revealed that De la Torre frequently used the hospital chain’s bank account as his own, including to make purchases to renovate an €8m ($8.9m) apartment in Madrid and to make donations of millions of dollars to his children’s private school.In July, the outlet reported that the justice department was investigating Steward Health Care for potential foreign corruption violations. It also reported that a federal grand jury in Boston was investigating the hospital chain’s financial dealings including its compensations for top executives.During Wednesday’s session, the Massachusetts senator Ed Markey condemned what he called a “culmination of a financial tragedy over the past decade”.“Steward, led by its founder and CEO Dr Ralph de la Torre and his corporate enablers, looted hospitals across the country for their own profit, and while they got rich, workers, patients and communities suffered, nurses paid out of pocket for cardboard bereavement boxes for the babies to help grieving parents who had just lost a newborn,” said Markey.“Dr de la Torre is using his blood-soaked gains to hide behind corporate lawyers instead of responding to the United States Senate’s demand for actions. But while he tries to run and hide, Dr de la Torre is revealing himself for what he truly is – a physician who places personal gain over his duty to do no harm,” he added. More