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      Tuesday briefing: What Trump’s ‘massive’ weapons deal for Ukraine means for the war – and for Putin

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      Good morning. It looks like the bromance between Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, is over. Maybe for good.Last night an exasperated Trump said he had finally had enough of “tough guy” Putin’s refusal to give him what he wants: an end to the war in Ukraine. The United States, he announced, will start selling what the Nato secretary general Mark Rutte, sitting alongside him at a White House press conference, called “massive numbers” of weapons to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russia.Trump also delivered an ultimatum to Putin: agree to a ceasefire within 50 days or face – you guessed it – tariffs.Yesterday’s press conference with Rutte is a sign of just how much has changed in the past six months. It was only in February that the world witnessed the excruciating spectacle of Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, humiliating and belittling the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the Oval Office before a live global TV audience of millions.For Ukraine’s supporters in Congress and in Europe, this is a moment of victory with the US now firmly diplomatically and militarily in Kyiv’s corner. The issue is the extent to which Trump’s antipathy towards Putin translates into long-term support for Kyiv, and whether the extra military clout ends up being enough to turn the conflict decisively in Ukraine’s favour.For today’s newsletter, I talked to Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence and security editor, about what the breakdown in diplomatic relations between Trump and Putin could mean for Ukraine and the prospects for peace. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories

      Middle East crisis | A feud has broken out between the Israeli government and the military over the cost and impact of a planned camp for Palestinians in southern Gaza, as politicians attacked the former prime minister Ehud Olmert for warning that the project would create a “concentration camp” if it goes ahead.

      UK news | A senior coroner’s officer who first reviewed the deaths of babies at the Countess of Chester hospital for Cheshire police in 2017 has said she believes Lucy Letby has suffered a miscarriage of justice. Last month, Stephanie Davies wrote to Cheshire’s senior coroner that: “I am now extremely concerned that the convictions of Ms Letby are wholly unsafe.”

      NHS | Wes Streeting has said resident doctors’ strikes would be “a gift to Nigel Farage” before a meeting with the British Medical Association this week where he will seek to avert industrial action.

      UK news | Constance Marten and Mark Gordon have been found guilty of the manslaughter of their newborn daughter, who died after they took her to live in a tent in freezing wintry conditions to evade social services.

      Media | A report on the behaviour of Gregg Wallace has substantiated 45 allegations made against the former BBC presenter, including claims of inappropriate sexual language and one incident of unwelcome physical contact.
      In depth: ‘Tonally, today we saw a very, very different Trump’View image in fullscreenAs relationships go, it’s fair to say Trump and Putin’s status has now shifted from “it’s complicated” into more definitively hostile territory, as the former’s frustration with Russia’s refusal to budge in the stalled peace talks seems to have reached a crescendo.“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” Trump said yesterday as he announced the new US arms sales to Ukraine, noting that several of his predecessors had also become disillusioned with Putin.“Tonally, today we saw a very, very different Trump when it comes to Russia,” said Dan Sabbagh. “Up until yesterday there was this feeling that he still believed he could get Putin to the table and make some kind of sweetheart peace deal but all of that seems to have gone away. Diplomatically it is a decisive shift.”What military support did Donald Trump announce?Although neither Trump nor Rutte put a number on the value of the weaponry heading Ukraine’s way, Trump said “top of the line” equipment would be arriving to Ukraine’s European allies very soon.The US will provide a number of Patriot missile systems – a long-range, all-altitude, all-weather air defence system to counter tactical ballistic missiles and aircraft – funded by Germany and other Nato partners.Considering the almost nightly bombardment Ukraine and its people are coming under, this is likely to be very welcomed by Ukraine and would be a significant step in helping Ukraine to defend itself.Trump also threatened tariffs of “about 100%” if a deal isn’t done to end the war in 50 days.How have relations soured between Trump and Putin?After Trump won his first term in 2016, his admiration for Putin’s strongman image and insistence that the Russian president wasn’t such a bad guy set the US on a wholly different course in terms of its willingness to engage with Russia.The start of his second term was characterised by hostility towards Ukraine and its president, Zelenskyy – whom Trump branded a “dictator” – and a desire to negotiate one-to-one with Putin about a ceasefire and end to the war. Only this month the US briefly halted shipments of arms to Ukraine because it said its own stockpiles were too low.Still, over the past month Trump has been increasingly bewildered at Putin’s refusal to give him the peace deal he so desperately needs to make good on his boast that he can end the Ukraine war – even if not in his promised 24 hours. While Ukraine has buckled to US demands such as signing a minerals deal, Putin has given Trump nothing of any substance (apart from, of course, a flattering portrait). Trump’s sense of betrayal has only increased as Putin has stepped up his attacks on Ukrainian cities. Putin “talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening”, Trump said at the weekend.Dan said the new arms package that the US has announced for Ukraine was Trump’s attempt to claw back some leverage over the Russian leader. While it remains to be seen what difference it can make militarily, this is a diplomatic turning point in relations between the two superpowers.“For me, the fact that he’s agreed in principle to sell weapons to Ukraine is more important than any threat about tariffs,” said Dan. “Some Ukrainian analysts have been saying that they thought that Putin has overplayed his hand with Trump and I would agree with that.”What does this mean for Ukraine?Dan said that after his public humiliation in the Oval Office, Zelenskyy was quick to act on advice from European leaders to appeal to Donald Trump’s ego. One fascinating detail in an Axios report yesterday was that one of the things that seems to have worked in Zelenskyy’s favour with Trump was him wearing a suit instead of his usual military attire at the recent Nato summit.“After Zelenskyy walked into that ambush he swiftly realised that he had to be patient because Putin himself would prove to Trump that he was not a good-faith actor, which so far appears to have played out,” said Dan.While the US arms sale for Ukraine is, undoubtedly, a sign of better relations with Washington, Dan also agreed with the assessment that the new shipment was probably more to do with Trump’s anger and frustration at Putin than deep-seated support of Ukraine.“I don’t think Trump thinks he’s fallen out with Putin,” said Dan. “It could be that in a few days or weeks, if Putin starts making noises again about being prepared to make concessions, we could see Trump flexing back.”Dan thought it was significant that Trump brought up his wife, Melania, at the press conference saying that she had been sceptical about their friendly phone calls all along. “Even if he was just musing aloud it was an acknowledgment that at the heart of his family there has been someone just prodding him out of the idea that Putin was serious about peace.”How could this influence the outcome of the war?Dan said that without a concrete dollar amount in the billions attached to what the US will sell Ukraine’s European allies, it is hard to get a firm understanding of just how potentially decisive this military support to Ukraine could be.“The real question is how much these new US weapons will make a difference to the war and improve Ukraine’s ability to fight the kind of war it needs to fight, which is a hard defensive war that will allow it to remain stable and better counter these Russian missile attacks,” said Dan.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionDan said what is clear is that Russia is setting itself up for engaging in a “forever war” until it achieves its objectives, whatever the cost. “Russia just hopes to just grind Ukraine down,” said Dan. “It seems prepared to stomach casualties of more than 1,000 per day and has organised itself around a war economy that could keep going for a long time.”Could the US starting to send “massive” amounts of weaponry to Ukraine make the Kremlin think again?Dan doesn’t think so. “Militarily at the moment it doesn’t appear to be a decisive intervention and my instinct is that Russia isn’t going to stop and that Ukrainians have to come to terms with the fact that nothing is going to change any time soon.”What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

      This feature by Keith Stuart is a fascinating deep dive into how creative video games like Minecraft and Animal Crossing can help Ukrainian refugee children understand and cope with trauma. Craille Maguire Gillies, newsletters team

      This interview by Ruaridh Nicoll with the Guardian’s Gaza diarist, the anonymous writer who catalogued his life during the five months of the war, is a devastating but urgent read about his life under fire and how he escaped into exile. Annie

      John Merrick is pointed on how “a new chorus of ‘declinism’” is becoming part of the national consciousness once again – and with it comes racialised undertones that distract us from the true causes (it’s not migrants) and solutions (hello, wealth distribution). Craille

      I absolutely hoovered up this beautiful ode to Pamela Anderson by Caitlin Flanagan in the Atlantic (£). A gorgeous piece of writing about her love for Anderson and what she can teach us about resilience and grace in the face of industrial-levels of misogyny. Annie

      Thanks to Rukmini Iyer, who has not only solved supper at my house with her recipe for cashew rice bowls with stir-fried tofu, but helped me see what I might do with kimchi, an ingredient I enjoy but don’t often reach for. Craille
      SportView image in fullscreenCricket | England beat India at Lord’s to take a 2-1 lead in the series after a tense final day. Third Test: England, 387 & 192, bt India, 387 & 170, by 22 runs.Football | The president of Fifpro has described the Club World Cup as a “fiction” and compared Gianni Infantino to the Roman emperor Nero, as the dispute between the players’ union and Fifa continued to escalate.Cycling | Ben Healy rode himself into the ground to become the first Irishman in 38 years to wear the yellow jersey, as Simon Yates claimed victory in stage 10.The front pagesView image in fullscreenThe Guardian print edition leads with “Trump issues warning to Putin as he does deal with Nato to arm Kyiv”. The Telegraph says “Trump threatens China over Russian oil” and the Financial Times has “Trump threatens 100% trade levies if Russia does not end war in 50 days”. The Daily Mail splashes on “The killer aristocrat” and further offers “Revealed: why daughter of privilege had four children taken into care”. “Arrogance of monster parents” – that’s the Metro about the same case. The Daily Mirror’s top story is “Sacked Gregg: I won’t be the last” while the Times runs with “New grant to push sales of electric cars for net zero” and the Express predicts “Next tax raid will ‘pick the pockets’ of the grafters”. In the i paper you can read “UK to offer new bumper mortgages for £30,000 earners as Reeves sweeps away crash rules”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenThe law change that could transform toxic workplacesZelda Perkins was Harvey Weinstein’s PA – and has spent the last eight years campaigning against the non-disclosure agreements used to silence abused employees. Now she has won a major victory. Alexandra Topping reportsCartoon of the day | Ben JenningsView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenFussy eaters are often mocked and, as Jason Okundaye writes, they are misunderstood. “I am of Nigerian heritage after all, and I grew up eating and loving a range of dishes – abula, efo riro, bokoto – that would probably flip the stomachs of many Europeans on sight.” What stresses him out are ordinary foods with textures he finds unpleasant: nuts in desserts, cheese, oats, tuna, brown bread. “But I eventually grew tired of my own fussiness”, he admits, and so he made one small change: every week, he would eat as much of a food containing a single ingredient he had previously avoided, a kind of culinary exposure therapy. It’s still a work in progress: he’s overcome his nut aversion thanks to baklava but can’t stomach the oats in Hobnobs. But while he “recently braved the evil mayonnaise, and heaved so violently that I thought I was dying”, Okundaye gives himself full points for trying. His old dislikes, he realises, are a matter of taste – not a reason to panic.When he’s not forcing food down, Jason edits The Long Wave, our weekly Black life and culture newsletter – make sure you sign up here.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

      Quick crossword

      Cryptic crossword

      Wordiply More

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      Donald Trump’s UFC stunt is more than a circus. It’s authoritarian theatre | Karim Zidan

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      Ten years ago – before I became an investigative journalist – I found myself working as a color commentator for a Russian mixed martial arts organization bankrolled by an oligarch deep in Vladimir Putin’s orbit.The job took me around the Russian Federation and its neighboring states, allowing me to pursue unique stories that would otherwise have been out of my reach. I met a Latvian fighter who escaped a black magic cult run by his coach, attended an MMA show with the president of Ingushetia (now Russia’s deputy minister of defence) and knocked back vodka shots with ex-KGB officers and Russian oligarchs.Then there was the time the organization attempted to host an event in Moscow’s famed Red Square, one of the most historically and politically significant landmarks in Russia. It also sits adjacent to the Kremlin, the seat of Russia’s political power. The event would have been a chance for the organization and its oligarch to ingratiate themselves to Putin, a known MMA fan who had previously attended their shows.Logistical issues, including security concerns and layers of bureaucratic red tape, rendered the event impossible at the time. But the incident stuck with me nonetheless as an example of the political undercurrent flowing through the sport. That memory became especially relevant as Donald Trump announced plans to host an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event at the White House to commemorate the nation’s 250th birthday next year.Speaking to a crowd of supporters during a Salute to America event in Iowa Thursday, Trump said: “Does anybody watch UFC? The great Dana White? We’re going to have a UFC fight. We’re going to have a UFC fight – think of this – on the grounds of the White House. We have a lot of land there.”White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the news during the press briefing, adding that the president was “dead serious” about hosting a UFC event at the official residence and workplace of the president.The announcement comes as no surprise given Trump’s longstanding relationship with the UFC, its current owner Ari Emanuel and its CEO Dana White.Over the past few years, Trump has frequently attended UFC events, basking in the admiration of the young, predominantly male crowd. He has cultivated relationships with fighters, leveraging their support to portray himself as a symbolic strongman. He has embraced the UFC’s culture of defiance, machismo and spectacle to help buttress his image as a rebel against liberal norms. It has also hastened the replacement of America’s conventional political culture with an abrasive new blend of entertainment and confrontational politics, perfectly embodied by both Trump and White.The UFC CEO stumped for Trump at three Republican national conventions and a slew of campaign rallies over the past eight years. He traveled with the president on Air Force One and produced a propaganda documentary on Trump entitled Combatant-in-Chief. And when Trump won the 2024 presidential election, it was White who took the stage at his victory party – because, naturally, Trump needed his fight promoter to seal the deal.For the UFC, its association with Trump has granted the once-renegade promotion a new kind of political legitimacy and influence. It also set it apart from other sports leagues through its unapologetically conservative posture. The UFC is even sponsoring the United States semiquincentennial, dubbed America250, joining the likes of Amazon, the Coca-Cola Company, Oracle and Walmart.Since taking office in January, Trump has attended two UFC events. He most recently attended UFC 316 in June just hours after signing a memo ordering the deployment of 2,000 national guard troops to Los Angeles county after Ice immigration raids sparked mass protests. He nevertheless enjoyed a standing ovation from the fans in attendance, and glowing endorsements from the fighters, one of whom even kneeled before Trump. UFC champion Kayla Harrison embraced him, planted a kiss on his cheek and wrapped her championship belt around his waist as his family and supporters looked on in delight. It was a spectacle befitting the strongman Trump imagines himself to be.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhich is why Trump’s plan to stage a UFC event at the White House makes perfect sense. It is the natural climax of a partnership in which the UFC has become the stage for Maga mythology. It carries shades of fascist Italy under Benito Mussolini, particularly its obsession with masculinity, spectacle and nationalism – but with a modern, American twist.View image in fullscreenFascist Italy used rallies, parades and sports events to project strength and unity. Sports, especially combat sports, were used as tools to cultivate Mussolini’s ideal masculinity and portray Italy as a strong and powerful nation. Similarly, Trump has relied on the UFC to project his tough-guy image, and to celebrate his brand of nationalistic masculinity. From name-dropping champions who endorse him to suggesting a tournament that would pit UFC fighters against illegal immigrants, Trump has repeatedly found ways to make UFC-style machismo a part of his political brand.Since Trump returned to office in January, his presidency has been marked by a purge of federal agencies, crackdowns on dissent and immigration, and hollowing out institutions once designed as guardrails against abuses in presidential power. Loyalty to Trump, rather than the constitution and the American people, has become the primary litmus test for political advancement. Meanwhile, sports have emerged as a central feature of his administration, advancing his policies while projecting a cult of personality and the celebration of violence. All of these are the hallmarks of authoritarianism.There was once a time when the US could point to the authoritarian pageantry of regimes like Mussolini’s Italy and claim at least some moral distance. That line is no longer visible. What was once soft power borrowed from strongmen is now being proudly performed on America’s own front lawn.

      Karim Zidan writes a regular newsletter on the intersection of sports and authoritarian politics. More

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      Trump has ‘good conversation’ with Zelenskyy after heavy bombardment of Ukraine by Russia

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      Donald Trump spoke with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Friday as the US president appears increasingly disheartened over his chances of fulfilling a campaign pledge to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.The call with Zelenskyy comes as Washington has halted its latest shipment of military aid to Ukraine including Patriot air defense missiles and other crucial munitions meant to support the country’s defenses, and hours after Russia launched a devastating air attack on Kyiv using a record number of drones and ballistic missiles.Zelenskyy called the conversation “important and useful” and said in a post said that he and Trump had discussed Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, joint defense production and “mutual purchases and investments”, all potentially avenues for Ukraine to restart aid from the United States by providing incentives for the Trump administration to rush crucial munitions to Kyiv.He said that the two sides had also agreed to “increase aerial protection”, a particular focus for Kyiv as Russia has increased bombardments of Ukrainian cities despite outrage from Trump and other world leaders.Yet it was not immediately clear if Zelenskyy had achieved any concrete progress with Trump and in his statement he did not mention the halt of aid shipments from the US or announce their resumption. Axios reported that a source described the call as a “good conversation”.Trump said he was “very disappointed” after a telephone call with Vladimir Putin on Thursday. A Putin aide told reporters that the Russian president was not willing to make concessions on what the Kremlin has called the “root causes” of the war with Ukraine, a list of grievances that includes Nato expansion and Ukraine’s desire to join western economic and security blocs.“I’m very disappointed with the conversation I had today with President Putin, because I don’t think he’s there,” Trump told reporters after holding a rally in Iowa on Thursday evening. “I don’t think he’s there, and I’m very disappointed. I’m just saying, I don’t think he’s looking to stop, and that’s too bad.”The US has said that it halted the shipments, some of which were already in Poland, due to a review of US military stockpiles that suggested that the country is running low on munitions for its own troops.Germany has said that it is in “intensive talks” to buy the Patriot missiles for Ukraine, although it’s unclear whether those stocks would be available immediately.“There are various ways to fill this Patriot gap,” a German government spokesperson told a news conference in Berlin on Friday. One option being considered was for the German government to buy the Patriot missile batteries in the United States and then send them to Ukraine.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“I can confirm that intensive discussions are indeed being held on this matter,” the spokesperson said.The shortage of Patriot missiles was further highlighted by the record bombardment of Ukraine in which Russia sent more than 550 drones and ballistic missiles at major cities in what Zelenskyy described as a “deliberate act of terror”.The strike immediately followed the call between Putin and Trump, Zelenskyy said, and was a “clear interpretation of how Moscow interprets diplomacy”. More

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      in US Politics

      Trump to speak to Putin and Zelenskyy about Ukraine ceasefire – US politics live

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      The Kremlin said that Russian president Vladimir Putin will hold a call with US president Donald Trump at 5pm Moscow time (10am EDT) on Monday, state news agency RIA reported.RIA cited Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying that the two leaders’ discussion of Ukraine would take into account the results of talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul last week.Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog. I’m Tom Ambrose and I will be bringing you all the latest news throughout the next few hours.Donald Trump is due to speak to both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an effort to stop what he called the “bloodbath” war in Ukraine.Trump, posting on his Truth Social account on Saturday, wrote that he will speak to Putin on Monday morning. “THE SUBJECTS OF THE CALL WILL BE, STOPPING THE ‘BLOODBATH’ THAT IS KILLING, ON AVERAGE, MORE THAN 5000 RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS A WEEK, AND TRADE,” Trump wrote, in his customary all-capitalized prose. The president has repeatedly cited a death toll for the conflict that is much higher than any official figures, or estimates based on an open-source investigation, without explaining why.Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed to a state-run Russian news agency that preparations were under way for a call between the US and Russian presidents.Trump’s call with the Russian president will be followed by a separate conversation with Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s leader, and Nato leaders as part of the US effort to end the war that has raged since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END,” Trump wrote.It’s unclear what kind of progress Trump will be able to spur, if any, in the peace process. Russia and Ukraine have just concluded mostly fruitless talks, the first of their kind since the start of the war, in Istanbul. Ukraine said it was ready for a ceasefire but was faced by “unacceptable” demands from Russia.In other news:

      Donald Trump’s acceptance of a $400m Boeing jet from Qatar is the “definition of corruption”, a top Democrat said on Sunday, as several senior Republicans joined in a bipartisan fusillade of criticism and concern over the luxury gift. Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator for Connecticut, condemned the “flying grift” on NBC as he assailed the president’s trip to several Gulf states this week that included a stop in Qatar.

      As Trump wages a blunt attack on major law firms and the justice department, some lawyers are starting their own law firms and challenging the administration’s effort to cut funding and punish civil servants. The decision to start the firms come as the judiciary has emerged as a major bulwark against the Trump administration.

      The US retail company Walmart will “eat some of the tariffs” in line with Trump’s demands, the president’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has insisted, claiming he received the assurance in a personal phone call with the company’s chief executive, Doug McMillon. Walmart said last week it had no alternative to raising prices for consumers beginning later this month because it could not absorb the cost of the president’s tariffs on international trade.

      A proposed rule change making it easier to fire civil servants deemed to be “intentionally subverting presidential directives” could pave the way for the White House to fire statisticians employed to produce objective data on the economy but whose figures prove politically inconvenient, experts warn. With Trump under pressure to explain shrinking gross domestic product (GDP) figures amid economists’ warnings that tariffs could trigger a recession, the administration could use new employment rules to pressure workers into “cooking the books”.

      Former US president Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an “aggressive form” of prostate cancer that has spread to his bones, his office announced on Sunday, and he and his family are considering options for treatment. Donald Trump expressed concern on behalf of himself and first lady Melania Trump.

      US government debt may come under more pressure this week after the credit rating agency Moody’s stripped the US of its top-notch triple-A rating. More

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      in US Politics

      Trump to talk to Putin on Monday about Ukraine ceasefire proposal and trade

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      Donald Trump has said that he will speak to both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an effort to stop what he called the “bloodbath” war in Ukraine, in a barrage of new social media posts that included baseless conspiracy theories and a demand that Walmart not raise prices for customers because of tariffs he has imposed.Trump, posting on his Truth Social account on Saturday, wrote that he will speak to Putin on Monday morning. “THE SUBJECTS OF THE CALL WILL BE, STOPPING THE ‘BLOODBATH’ THAT IS KILLING, ON AVERAGE, MORE THAN 5000 RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS A WEEK, AND TRADE,” Trump wrote, in his customary all-capitalized prose.Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed to a state-run Russian news agency that preparations were under way for a call between the US and Russian presidents.Trump’s call with the Russian president will be followed by a separate conversation with Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s leader, and Nato leaders as part of the US effort to end the war that has raged since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END,” Trump wrote.Russia and Ukraine have just concluded mostly fruitless talks, the first of their kind since the start of the war, in Istanbul. Ukraine said it was ready for a ceasefire but was faced by “unacceptable” demands from Russia, which attempted to fully invade its neighbor and has occupied the eastern flank of the country.It’s unclear what kind of progress Trump will be able to spur, if any, in the peace process. The US president has been heavily critical of Ukraine, freezing military aid and having an infamous argument with Zelenskyy at the White House in full view of the media, before appearing to soften after a face-to-face conversation at the funeral of Pope Francis in the Vatican.Trump had offered to travel to Turkey for the talks after his trip to the Middle East last week if Putin would also attend, and urged Zelenskyy to go, but Putin sent a team of low-level negotiators instead.Trump’s ire with Ukraine’s president does not seem to have abated, however, with the president telling Fox News on Friday he is upset with what the country has done with the aid handed to it by the US. “What bothered me, I hated to see the way it was, you know, excuse me, pissed away,” he said.“I think he’s the greatest salesman in the world. Far better than me,” Trump said of the Ukrainian president. “Where is all this money going?”In a social media post of his own, Zelenskyy mourned the death of nine civilians in “a Russian drone strike on an ordinary passenger bus”. He added: “Yesterday, as on any other day of this war, there was an opportunity to cease fire. Ukraine has long been offering this – a full and unconditional ceasefire in order to save lives. Russia retains nothing but the ability to continue killing.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionMarco Rubio, the US secretary of state, reported on social media that he had spoken to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and told him that “the death and destruction must stop”. Rubio added on X, formerly Twitter, that the US “has presented a strong peace plan and we welcome the Prisoner of War exchange agreement reached in Istanbul. Let’s not miss this huge opportunity. The time for ending this war is now.”In a separate Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump complained about the impact of tariffs he has imposed, after Walmart, among other retailers, warned it will have to raise prices for Americans in response.“Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain,” Trump posted, adding that the company should “‘EAT THE TARIFFS,’ and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll be watching, and so will your customers!!!”A further post from Trump featured a video of an evidence-free conspiracy theory that not only implied that Bill and Hillary Clinton were guilty of murder but also that Seth Rich, a Democratic staffer, was the source of Clinton campaign emails released by WikiLeaks in 2016. (Special counsel Robert Mueller indicted 12 Russian government hackers for hacking the email accounts of people close to Clinton in 2016 and delivering the hacked emails to WikiLeaks.) Rich was murdered in 2016 and his death provoked a slew of lies and wild conspiracy theories, fueled by Trump and other sources. Rich’s family reached a confidential settlement with Fox News in 2020 over the peddling of these lies. More

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      Wednesday briefing: Is Zelenskyy playing political poker – or Russian roulette?

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      Good morning.Talks. Istanbul. Thursday. In the geopolitical equivalent of a playground challenge, the latest move in the back-and-forth brinkmanship between Russia and Ukraine has seen President Zelenskyy call Putin’s bluff.The Russian president crushed moves by Ukraine and its European allies to force a ceasefire by instead demanding peace talk negotiations in Istanbul tomorrow. In response, Zelenskyy challenged him to travel to Istanbul to meet him face to face.Putin has yet to respond, but these latest manoeuvres by both Ukraine and Russia – who seem very far away from being able to negotiate a mutually agreeable peace deal – share one thing: a desire to get Donald Trump on their team at the negotiating table.With Trump signalling that he could take a break from browsing private jet interiors in Saudi Arabia to join the party in Istanbul, we are either gearing up for an extraordinary photo opportunity or a complete damp squib if neither Trump nor Putin shows and the deadlock continues.For today’s newsletter I talked to our central and eastern Europe correspondent, Shaun Walker, about the latest round of power games, and whether there really is any prospect for peace in Ukraine.Five big stories

      US politics | Donald Trump says he will lift sanctions on Syria and meet with the country’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, during his tour of the gulf states. Sharaa’s pitch to woo the US offered access to Syrian oil, reconstruction contracts and to build a Trump Tower in Damascus.

      UK news | Peter Sullivan, who has spent 38 years in jail, has had his murder conviction quashed in what is thought to be the longest-running miscarriage of justice in British history. Sullivan was wrongly convicted in 1987 for the frenzied murder of a florist and part-time pub worker, Diane Sindall, 21, in Merseyside.

      Conservatives | An MP has been charged with sexual assault over alleged incidents at London’s Groucho Club in 2023, the Crown Prosecution Service has said. Patrick Spencer, the MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, was charged with two counts of sexual assault against two separate women, said the CPS.

      Assisted dying | At least five MPs have decided to vote against the UK assisted dying bill, the Guardian understands. It comes as the Scottish parliament votes to consider a bill to allow assisted dying for terminally ill people for the first time.

      UK news | A man has been arrested in connection with a series of suspected arson attacks on property linked to Keir Starmer, Scotland Yard has said. The 21-year-old was arrested in the early hours on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life and remained in custody, the Metropolitan police said.
      In depth: ‘Putin doesn’t want to be in a room with Zelenskyy. This is what Ukraine is banking on’View image in fullscreenThe past few days have seen intricate displays of diplomatic cat-and-mouse as Ukraine and Russia try to gain the upper hand while facing increasing pressure to end the war in Ukraine.There is much at stake. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have lost their lives. Last night the air raid sirens were still wailing across Kyiv as hopes of an imminent ceasefire were once again crushed.What moves towards a peace deal have happened in the past few days?Last weekend, things seemed to be going well for Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s one-to-one meeting with Trump at the Vatican had helped repair the rupture caused by the extraordinary press conference in the White House, and momentum appeared to be with him.After recent attempts to get Russia to agree – and actually stick to – a ceasefire had failed, last weekend saw frustrated European leaders travel to Kyiv with an ultimatum for Putin: agree to a ceasefire or face new, tough sanctions.Yet Putin had other ideas. Undermining Zelenskyy’s insistence that a full ceasefire should begin ahead of any peace negotiations, Putin went on Russian TV to propose direct talks between Russia and Ukraine and named the time and place: Istanbul, on Thursday 15 May.Trump weighed in. Posting in his usual capital letters on his Truth Social platform, the president said that Ukraine should agree to Putin’s demand for a meeting immediately. “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin,” he wrote. “HAVE THE MEETING NOW!!!”Zelenskyy took Putin’s challenge and raised the stakes. He said he would travel to Istanbul personally and challenged Putin to do the same, saying that the two leaders should meet face-to-face for the first time since 2019.Since then, Putin has gone quiet. With the Kremlin refusing to comment, Ukraine has been ramping up the pressure. Yesterday, Shaun attended a bullish press briefing and then a sit-down interview with Zelenskyy. “His message is Ukraine is not the one to blame,” says Shaun. “He is saying to Trump that we are doing everything you ask. We’re not the problem here.” What are the peace talks in Istanbul?At the moment there is no detail on what will and won’t be discussed on Thursday, or even who will be the ones doing the negotiating.Shaun says that while Putin’s holding position is to give the impression that he wants to negotiate, Russian demands at the talks on Thursday – regardless of whether Putin shows or not – are likely to be pretty much the same as the demands they were making at the beginning of the conflict, which include Ukraine dropping its aspirations to join Nato, give up territories taken by Russia and scale back its military.On the other side, Ukraine wants to be a sovereign nation and an independent, democratic country with links – and ideally Nato membership – to the West. They will find it politically difficult to cede territory to their enemy.“My reading is that it is very clear that Putin’s only goal for Ukraine is for it not to be a threat – in the way he perceives it – to Russian interests, and become this beacon of ‘anti-Russianness’ that will cause him problems,’” Shaun says. “At the talks, the Russian delegation will most likely continue pushing for terms that will still be fully unacceptable to Ukraine.”How likely is it that Putin will show?Shaun says that he’d be very surprised if Putin makes a personal appearance in Turkey on Thursday. “Putin doesn’t like being pressured into things. He doesn’t want to be in a room with Zelenskyy. This is what Ukraine is banking on,” he says. “I’d give it about a 5% chance that somehow Putin and Trump talk to each other this week and both go. I think the most likely scenario is that we’ll have Zelenskyy in Istanbul on Thursday recording a video saying, ‘Look, I’m here but nobody else turned up.’”At the moment Zelenskyy is travelling to Ankara, the Turkish capital, to meet with its president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and will go to Istanbul if Putin shows. It’s unclear if he will be bringing a delegation with him who could start talks with the Russian team in the absence of Putin.In some ways, Zelenskyy calling for a personal summit with Trump is potentially a high-stakes move, because if Putin does show up then Ukraine could face pressure to show they are willing to concede to some of Russia’s demands. Yet Shaun thinks a Putin no-show at this point is almost certain.How much is this all about Trump?Shaun says that the only thing uniting both Russia and Ukraine at the moment is their desire to get Trump onside.“Ever since that disastrous White House meeting, Zelenskyy has been trying very hard – and with some success – to get Trump back on Ukraine’s team,” says Shaun.Trump knows he wields huge power and influence on the global stage and hasn’t been afraid to use it. Since he took office, he has become increasingly frustrated with the Ukraine war and wants to show that he can do what he promised the US voters would be easy – to end the war and use whatever aggressive boardroom tactics he has at his disposal to force the two sides to bend to his will.He is currently in Saudi Arabia for a lavish four-day trip where he hopes to enrich both the US and his own family with a raft of multi-billion dollar deals (and fly home in his new Qatar-gifted luxury jet). Trump will want to build on this momentum and return home triumphant, able to say that he is dictating the terms of global politics.The danger for Ukraine, says Shaun, is that even though the Biden administration moved much slower than the Ukrainians would have liked, America has been Ukraine’s most significant ally, providing weapons, intelligence sharing and other support.“Now with Trump they know he doesn’t like it when things get difficult so their fear will be that he’ll just give up and say, ‘Sorry, this is your mess to fix,’ and walk away like he’s promised to do so many times,” says Shaun.Shaun says that for Russia, Trump bailing on the war would be a good outcome. “If the negotiations fail and Trump walks then Ukraine could risk losing US support, which would be catastrophic for them.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIf the talks fail, what next?Shaun says that in the event that nothing is agreed in Turkey, the big question will be whether the Europeans can get Trump on board and once again ratchet the pressure up on Moscow for a ceasefire. European leaders have indicated they will press ahead with further sanctions if talks this week fail to achieve real progress.The issue, as ever, is Trump’s unpredictability. “We know from experience that there could be a new command or request from the Americans at any time and everything could change again,” he says.In such a high-stakes game of political poker, it’s impossible to place a safe bet on what will happen next. Until then, the sirens will continue and the war will grind on.What else we’ve been readingView image in fullscreen

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      With Reform UK on the rise and young men increasingly forming a core part of their voting bloc, Damien Gayle goes in search of answers as to why so many are increasingly turning to the right in this fascinating and sometimes chilling film. Annie

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      In case you missed it: the online news site HuffPost turned 20 this month, and this oral history of the site, told through the bizarre and poignant splash headlines that became its trademark, is a joy. (It’s good to see many alumni have, like me, kept the pyjamas gifted to us by founder Arianna Huffington each Christmas.) Charlie
      SportView image in fullscreenFootball | Goodison Park has been saved from demolition and will become the country’s first major stadium dedicated solely to a women’s team next season, the Guardian can reveal. Hailed as a gamechanging move for women’s football, Everton Women will kick off their first season at Goodison in September.Cycling | Sir Bradley Wiggins has revealed he became addicted to cocaine after his retirement from cycling and is “lucky to be here”. The 2012 Tour de France winner and five-time Olympic champion said his children wanted to put him in rehab amid fears the issue could prove fatal.Football | Manchester United intend to retain Ruben Amorim as head coach next season even if they lose the Europa League final against Tottenham. The club feels the Portuguese deserves this summer transfer window to improve the squad.The front pagesView image in fullscreenThe Guardian’s headline is “Zelenskyy: Putin is the obstacle to a peace deal”, as the Ukrainian leader pledges to travel to Turkey for talks. The Telegraph claims “Hostile state linked to Starmer firebombs”. The i reports “New migrant rules boost UK hopes of softer Brexit deal”. The FT says “Beijing fears over UK-US trade accord cloud London’s bid to revive China ties”.The Mail leads on the quashing of Peter Sullivan’s conviction with “28 years in jail for a murder he didn’t commit”. The Mirror follows the same story with “Cleared after 38 years”. Finally the Times reports “Weight-loss drugs hailed as key to a longer life”.Today in FocusView image in fullscreenTrump’s ex-Russia adviser on the prospect of WW3Defence expert Fiona Hill on why the world becomes more dangerous when international systems break down.Cartoon of the day | Rebecca HendinView image in fullscreenThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badView image in fullscreenJennifer Hobson describes finding an adult grey seal named Pinkafo, close to death with a flying ring toy caught round her neck, as a moment that “broke my heart”. But it was a moment that changed her life too.Seven years on, Hobson is a leading seal welfare campaigner and author whose work has been recognised by the prime minister and led to retailers changing their product line to remove the potentially lethal rings. On 26 May, she will lead a national campaign to raise further awareness of their dangers. “Everyone can learn how to protect seals by swapping flying rings for seal-safe solid flying discs this summer,” she says.And as for Pinkafo? Thanks to Hobson’s intervention, she survived – and is believed to have later given birth.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

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      Trump 100 days: ‘unpredictable’ US alienates allies and disrupts global trade

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      For US foreign policy, Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office were the weeks when decades happened.In just over three months, the US president has frayed alliances that stood since the second world war and alienated the US’s closest friends, cut off aid to Ukrainians on the frontlines against Vladimir Putin, emboldened US rivals around the world, brokered and then lost a crucial ceasefire in Gaza, launched strikes on the Houthis in Yemen and seesawed on key foreign policy and economic questions to the point where the US has been termed the “unpredictable ally”.The tariffs Trump has unleashed will, if effected, disrupt global trade and lead to supply chain shocks in the United States, with China’s Xi Jinping seeking to recruit US trade allies in the region.The pace of the developments in the past 100 days makes them difficult to list. Operating mainly through executive action, the Trump administration has affected nearly all facets of US foreign policy: from military might to soft power, from trade to immigration, reimagining the US’s place in the world according to an isolationist America First program.“The shake-up has been revolutionary, extraordinary. It’s upended 80-some years of American foreign policy,” said Ivo Daalder, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former ambassador to Nato.The Trump presidency has ended the relative peace in the western hemisphere since the end of the second world war underwritten by US economic, military and diplomatic influence, Daalder said.“The foundation of the Pax Americana was trust, and once you break trust, it’s extraordinarily difficult to restore,” he said. “And restoring trust – trust in America, trust in American institutions, trust in American voters – it takes a long time to rebuild.”The US’s key foreign policy and national security making institutions are in crisis. The Pentagon is mid-meltdown under the leadership of Pete Hegseth, whose erratic and unsteady leadership has been reflected in score-settling among his senior staff, while a leaked Signal chat embroiled the national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and others in scandal. The state department under Marco Rubio is undergoing a vast shake-up, and the US’s diplomats are being sidelined in favour of envoys such as Steve Witkoff with little background in foreign policy. Critics say the gutting of USAID will cut back on US soft power for generations.“There’s no better way to get us into a war, perhaps a catastrophic war, than essentially poking out your eyes and numbing your brain, and you’re left with Donald Trump and a few people sitting in the White House winging it, and they’re not competent to wing it,” said Steven Cash, a former intelligence officer for the CIA and Department of Homeland Security, and the executive director of the Steady State, an advocacy group of former national security professionals. “And so we’ve seen that with the tariffs. We’ve seen that with Nato. We’ve seen that with Ukraine, and we’re gonna see a lot more of it.”After assuming office in 2021, Joe Biden declared: “America is back.”“The world now knows America is not back,” Daalder said. “America is gone again.”In a recent interview with the Zeit newspaper, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, expressed similar sentiments, saying: “The west as we knew it no longer exists.”View image in fullscreenIn Munich, JD Vance delivered a landmark speech openly pandering to Europe’s far right, accusing European leaders of “running from their own voters” and saying: “America can do nothing to help you.”A backlash has begun. Last month the EU presented an €800bn ($913bn) plan on the future of European defense, a putative step in what would be a herculean task to overcome internal divisions and onshore European defense manufacturing. The UK and other US allies have considered other efforts, such as limiting intelligence-sharing with the US. “We still need America now, but there is a vision [of a time] when we won’t any more,” said one European diplomat.Meanwhile, the Trump effect is beginning to sway elections as well – though not as he might hope.In the western hemisphere, Trump has terrorised US neighbours and tacitly declared what some have compared to a new Monroe doctrine, saying the White House planned to “take back” the Panama canal and annex Greenland, while regularly calling Canada the future 51st state.In an extraordinary bit of election-day meddling, Trump wrote a social media post suggesting that he was on the ballot in Canada’s vote, repeating that Canada should become the 51st state in order to avoid tariffs and reap economic awards.Canadians responded by duly electing the liberal candidate Mark Carney, completing a 30% swing in polling that has largely been explained by opposition to Trump’s tariff war and territorial menaces.In Europe, populist parties seen as Trump’s ideological allies are also on the defensive. While Trump was popular in terms of his ideological and anti-woke agenda, the trade war has made him “quite toxic, just in the last month or two, with a lot of the populist voting bases”, said Jeremy Shapiro, the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former special adviser to the assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia.Nowhere has the shift in US foreign policy been felt more acutely than in Ukraine, where the sudden cutoff in US military and intelligence sharing confirmed the Trump administration’s goals of pressuring Ukraine to accept a deal with the Kremlin, rather than the other way around. Those frustrations boiled over into an Oval Office meltdown fueled by Vice-President JD Vance that one former US official close to the talks called “disgraceful”.Trump has swung wildly on the war, on certain days targeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator” and then quickly pivoting to call out Putin for continuing to rain down missiles on Ukrainian cities. His theatrics have produced symbolic moments, including a sudden recognition that “maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war” after speaking with Zelenskyy this weekend in the baptistry of St Peter’s Basilica. But in terms of hard results, Trump has not fulfilled a promise to end the war within 24 hours or produced a clear path to peace many months later.View image in fullscreenThe Russians have said they largely tune out what he says in public.“We hear many things coming from President Trump,” said Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, during a television appearance this weekend. “We concentrate, as I said, on the real negotiations which President Trump supports and instructed his people to continue to engage in these negotiations.”Key among those people is Witkoff, a neophyte diplomat who has spent hours in conversation with Putin, often with no other adviser present. One person close to the Kremlin said that Witkoff was viewed as a reliable negotiator in Moscow with “a chance to make an agreement”, but added: “There is a chance it will pass by.”Much of the burden of international diplomacy now rests on Witkoff, who is also running point on other key negotiations. Trump has tasked him with reaching a deal to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, in effect renegotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that he scuttled in 2018. Both the US and Iran have played up the talks, although “differences still exist both on major issues and on the details”, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told state television this week.And then there is the Middle East, where the Trump administration scored its greatest early success by negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza but then failed to prevent its collapse, with Israel cutting off new aid to Gaza as the fighting continues.“There now seems to be less focus on ending the devastating conflict,” wrote Stefanie Hausheer Ali, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs. “Trump’s threat in February to Hamas to release the hostages or ‘all hell is going to break out’ has, in practice, meant Israel restarting the war and blocking humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. Without an alternative to Hamas rule, the militant group may hang on and continue to fight as an insurgency, replenishing its ranks by recruiting desperate people.”Trump’s most extreme remarks have turned out to be bluster: he stunned the world when he claimed that he would turn the Gaza Strip into beachfront condos and said that the local Palestinian population would be forcibly removed. Months later, the initiative is largely forgotten.While attempting to close three landmark negotiations at once, the Trump administration has also launched a trade war with the entire world, establishing sweeping tariffs on all foreign imports before abruptly reversing course and cutting tariffs to 10% save for those against China.With so many major efforts ongoing, observers say that the government is largely paralysed to deal with smaller but still crucial issues in foreign policy and national security. As part of a blanket ban on refugees, tens of thousands of Afghans who assisted US troops against the Taliban are left waiting for relocation to the United States, a promise that was extended by previous administrations.“The lack of clarity and the chaos are the things that are causing so much pain,” said Shawn VanDiver, the founder and president of #AfghanEvac, a group that works with the state department to help resettle Afghans.He said he was critical of both the Biden and Trump administrations for failing to relocate the tens of thousands of Afghans who were far enough along in the vetting program to be relocated before Trump came into office.“The truth is, is that when America makes a promise, you should be able to trust our word,” he said. “If our flag waving over an embassy in Tunisia or Baghdad or Kabul, or Kyiv doesn’t mean this is the place where there’s truth, where there’s justice … well, then what are we even doing here?” More