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    Zelenskiy wants to shame the west into action. Will it work? | Moira Donegan

    Zelenskiy wants to shame the west into action. Will it work?Moira DoneganThe contrast between what the Ukrainian president has been willing to do, and what western leaders have been willing to do to help, is the source of his moral power In a way, the Ukranian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, ruined the Americans’ plans. Early this year, when American intelligence concluded that Vladimir Putin would indeed invade Ukraine, no one expected it to be a long war. The conventional wisdom, shared by western analysts and Putin himself, was that Ukraine would rapidly fall to Russia’s military, and that after some strong words and a tepid round of sanctions, the US and Nato would cut a deal with Russia. They would give Putin hegemony over much of Ukraine – the eastern part, if not the whole thing – and what was left over would get an aspirationally democratic government with a European orientation. This detente would last until Putin got greedy again, at which point the cycle of Russian expansion and western accommodation would resume, this time a little further to the west. At some point in that version of events, Zelenskiy himself would have been arrested by the Russians. And then he’d be gone.Toxic Putin is going for bust. The west must stop him before this contagion spreads | Simon TisdallRead moreInstead, the man who addressed Congress on Wednesday morning did so from a besieged and defiant Kyiv, shelled and bombed nightly by the encircling Russian forces but still in Ukrainian hands. Zelenskiy appeared via video on a large screen at the front of a room full of senators and congresspeople in blue velvet chairs. He was unshaven. He looked unslept. By remaining in Kyiv, even as Russian troops encircle it and Russian bombs fall from the sky, Zelenskiy has made himself into a symbol of the Ukrainian people, whose surprising courage, determination, and defiance in the face of the Russian aggression have called the west’s moral bluff. Their stand, and Zelenskiy’s stand, have transformed what could have been a cynical calculation about how to manage Russia’s renewed imperial ambitions into a more meaningful – and more challenging – test of the west’s pro-democracy values. Days ago, when Americans offered Zelenskiy a discreet and secure exit from Kyiv, he reportedly told them: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”This sounds like action movie dialogue, and at times Zelenskiy’s skillful public rhetoric has evoked his past life as a comedian and entertainer. He has come a long way from the days when his jokes included pretending to play a piano with his dick. But it is difficult to dismiss Zelenskiy’s words as mere macho posturing when one considers that the stakes are his own life. Russia’s lethal power is superior, and though the Ukrainians have mounted an impressive military and guerrilla resistance, it is unlikely that they will be able to permanently hold Kyiv unless something drastic changes in the war. Zelenskiy’s wife and two small children, who fled at the beginning of the invasion, will probably never see him again. His presidency has taken on the tenor of a suicide mission; he broadcast to Congress from the location in Kyiv where he is waiting to die. The contrast between what Zelenskiy has been willing to do for his country’s sovereignty, and what the western leaders on whom he is calling for help have been willing to do for their own professed values, is the source of Zelenskiy’s tremendous moral power. In his addresses to western leaders – he has also spoken to the Canadian and UK parliaments over the past days – Zelenskiy speaks in inspirational tones. But he is looking to evoke the west’s shame. On Wednesday, he spoke to Congress wearing a T-shirt in the dusty green of a military uniform. The American lawmakers who watched him wore suits.In his address, Zelenskiy asked the Americans for the same things he has been asking for since the beginning of the Russian invasion: first, he wants a no-fly zone over Ukraine to stop the incessant and devastating bombing that has killed thousands of Ukrainians, including many civilians. Second, he wants the US to re-enter a deal that it backed out of this past week, in which America and Nato would facilitate the transfer to Ukraine from Poland of Soviet-made MiG military jets – planes that Ukrainian fighters know how to fly, and which could help make Russia’s air war over their country at least a little less asymmetrical. Third, he wants the west, and particularly the US, to continuously strengthen its sanctions on Russia. He called for individual restrictions to be placed on members of Putin’s government and their assets, and he called for American companies to cease operations in Russia. “Their market is flooded with our blood,” he said. He asked, too, for American ports to be closed to Russian-made goods. “Peace is more important than income.”It is one of the most persistent and embarrassing themes of America’s status as a superpower that the US’s values frequently do not align with its interests – or, for that matter, with its capacities. Zelenskiy is likely to get little of what he asked for. A no-fly zone could only be enforced by shooting down Russian planes and taking out Russian air defense operations that are located not only in Ukraine, but also in Belarus and Russia. Putin would see this as an act of war, and the US and Nato would be pulled into a potentially world-ending global conflict. The transfer of planes also seems unlikely: the Pentagon recently rejected American participation in the scheme, fearing that it, too, would be interpreted as an unacceptable escalation by the Russians.Harsher sanctions meant to cripple the Russian economy seem more likely, and like a less dangerous way to channel the considerable political and public support for the Ukrainian cause. The aim of such sanctions is not only punitive, but tactical. Despite the visibility of Russian dissidents in American media, the truth is that a large majority of Russians support Vladimir Putin, and support the war. Putin has the devoted support of the Russian people in no small part because they feel that their autocratic leader has secured Russia’s domestic stability and material prosperity. Sanctions could eventually change this calculation among ordinary Russians, potentially destabilizing Putin’s regime.It will be tempting for many in America to justify their aversion to further military escalation in eastern Europe by denying the moral authority of the Ukrainian cause. Those on the Republican right, confused about their party’s relationship to the Putin regime, will try to paint Ukraine as a corrupt denizen of decadence. Those on the far left will point to the mujahideen in Afghanistan as an example of the dangers of American support for anti-Russian militias. But this rhetoric will largely function as a distraction from what is really happening in Ukraine. Zelenskiy is right that his people have a moral claim, as he said to Congress, to “Live in their own country and choose their own future.” He is right, too, that watching Putin deny Ukraine this right should make us all ashamed. But he is wrong to think that America has the power, really, to stop him.
    Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist
    TopicsVolodymyr ZelenskiyOpinionUS foreign policyUkraineUS politicscommentReuse this content More

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    Zelenskiy captivates viewers with truth telling in address to Congress

    Zelenskiy captivates viewers with truth telling in address to CongressUkrainian president, a former actor and comedian, has an understanding of the camera, and is proving a more serious man for more serious times For four long years members of the US Congress had to smile or scowl as a TV star played the role of president.Donald Trump became infamous for the art of lying. On Wednesday another TV performer turned national leader came before Congress. But this one captivated his viewers with truth telling.The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a former actor and comedian facing down the Russian war machine, has an instinctive understanding of the camera but is proving a more serious man for more serious times. Despite being under siege in Kyiv, Zelenskiy has been on a virtual tour of western capitals over the past three weeks, tailoring his speeches to each nation. Speaking virtually to the British parliament, he cited William Shakespeare and Winston Churchill, while he asked members of its Canadian equivalent to imagine waking at 4am to bombs dropping on Ottawa’s airport or Toronto’s CN Tower.The Axios website described it as a “signature blend of praising, chastising and pleading with his audience to understand the global stakes of Ukraine’s resistance” which has produced unexpected commitments such as oil and Swift banking sanctions.So it was that in a packed auditorium in the basement of the US Capitol in Washington, Zelenskiy, whose words were translated from Ukrainian into English by a female interpreter, conjured the demons of two days when America was attacked from the skies to renew his plea for a no-fly zone above Ukraine.“Remember Pearl Harbor, the terrible morning of December 7, 1941, when your sky was black from the planes attacking you,” said Zelenskiy, looming large on a cinema screen, wearing perfectly trimmed hair and beard and a green T-shirt, against a white backdrop with a Ukrainian flag to one side.“Remember September 11, a terrible day in 2001 when evil tried to turn your cities, independent territories, into battlefields. When innocent people were attacked from the air. Our country is experiencing the same every day, right now, at this moment. Every night for three weeks now … Russia has turned the Ukrainian sky into a source of death for thousands of people.”Combined with references to Mount Rushmore and Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream speech”, Zelenskiy, was pushing America’s most emotive buttons with words. But he also knows that this is the nation of network television, cable news, Hollywood, Netflix and social media. So words alone would not do.Zelenskiy asked the members of the House of Representatives and Senate to watch a searing video compilation showing the hell that Russian troops have rained down on Ukraine and its citizens. It contrasted idyllic images of children playing in peaceful towns and cities with explosions, destruction, sobbing, refugees, hospitals and corpses, accompanied by the lament of a violin.According to a pooled report by the Associated Press, “As Zelenskiy played the video of violence, the room was very quiet and members were mostly still. Some shook their heads or wiped eyes or took video. Small amount of applause afterward.”Then came a simple message written in white letters on a black backdrop: “Close the sky over Ukraine.”Tragic in the truest sense because this is the one thing that Congress, and Joe Biden, will not do, fearing that a no-fly zone, in which US pilots shoot down Russians, could trigger a third world war. Perhaps aware of this reluctance, Zelenskiy did not dwell on the issue for long, pivoting to a request for surface-to-air missile systems and urging Washington to “do more”.But the video had a wider purpose. It was shown to millions of American TV viewers just after 9am. It caught TV executives by surprise and they did not have time to censor it; some anchors apologised for its graphic content. It spread far and wide on social media. In the court of public opinion, the video humanised the victims and conveyed the message that our struggle is your struggle.Zelenskiy had again shown himself to be a master of the medium, inviting comparisons with Vladimir Putin’s efforts to lie low, clamp down on media, crush all dissent and turn Russia into North Korea. Zelenskiy is running rings around Putin in the soft power arena with his speeches and intimate phone videos; Russia is not faring especially well with hard power either.On Wednesday the Ukrainian president ended his speech by addressing the room in English. “Now, I’m almost 45 years old,” he said. “Today my age stopped when the heart of more than 100 children stopped beating. I see no sense in life if it cannot stop the deaths.”There was also a direct appeal to Biden: “I wish for you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.”The auditorium erupted in a bipartisan standing ovation. Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator, tweeted: “There’s no member of Congress left that room without thinking what more the United States can do to stop this carnage. Just a gut wrenching speech. #SlavaUkraine.”In an era of Trumpism, fake news and disinformation, Zelenskiy, who used to play a fictional president, had cut through with his sincerity. For him and Ukraine, it already feels like a third world war; that is their truth. And the temptation for America to flex its superpower muscles is stronger than ever.TopicsVolodymyr ZelenskiyUS CongressBiden administrationJoe BidenUkraineRussiaEuropefeaturesReuse this content More

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    Zelenskiy to address US Congress and call for tougher line against Russia

    Zelenskiy to address US Congress and call for tougher line against RussiaUkrainian president expected to press once again for no-fly zone and urge US to facilitate transfer of fighter jets The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will deliver a virtual address to the US Congress on Wednesday, the latest in a series of speeches to western leaders as he works to galvanize support for his besieged nation.‘Would-be tyrant’: Republican targeted by Trump at rally hits backRead moreThe remarks to both chambers of Congress come on day 21 of the battle for Ukraine’s survival under an intensifying assault from Russia.Russian troops are advancing on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in a war that has already killed hundreds of civilians in aerial and artillery bombardment, including at least 100 children.More than 3 million people have fled Ukraine since the invasion, causing the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since the second world war.Zelenskiy’s speech follows similar addresses to the UK parliament, in which he invoked Shakespeare and echoed Winston Churchill’s famous wartime oration to the House of Commons about defiance in the face of an apparently overwhelming aggressor.On Tuesday, Zelenskiy appealed to Canada’s parliament, and the nation’s large Ukrainian diaspora, to rally behind his country. That evening, the prime ministers of Nato allies and Russian neighbors Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia traveled by train to Kyiv, which was under a 35-hour curfew as Russian shells and missiles rained down on the capital, striking residential areas and civilian infrastructure.It came on the same day Zelenskiy acknowledged that Ukraine’s longstanding hope of joining Nato was unlikely.“For years, we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged,” the Ukrainian president said in a speech before the leaders of the Joint Expeditionary Force, a UK-led initiative bringing together 10 north Atlantic countries to create a capability for responding rapidly to crises.In his remarks on Wednesday, which will come nearly two weeks after Zelenskiy met virtually, behind the scenes, with a small group of members of Congress, he is expected to call on the US once again to “close the skies” over Ukraine.He is also likely to press to be supplied with fighter jets by Nato allies that Ukrainian pilots can fly up against Russian air forces, and steeper economic sanctions in the face of an advancing Russian assault.The Biden administration has so far flatly ruled out an option of the west imposing a no-fly zone over the country, determined to avoid inevitable direct combat between the US and Russian forces – a conflict the US president has said would lead to “world war three”.The Biden administration also rejected an offer from Poland to turn over its Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine, which had been made only if the US and Nato facilitated the transfer. Administration officials argued the move could be seen as escalatory by Moscow.But Biden is facing growing pressure to reconsider his position. A growing chorus of lawmakers on Capitol Hill are publicly pressuring Biden to increase military aid to Ukraine, including sending fighter jets and air defense systems.The calls come as the US and allies tighten their economic vice on Russia, apparently leading Moscow to turn to China for financial support.On Tuesday, Biden signed into law a funding measure that will provide a record $13.6bn in emergency aid to Ukraine and its European allies.This week, lawmakers are expected to take up legislation that would end normal trade relations with Russia after Biden last Friday said the US would join Europe and other allies in revoking its preferred trade status.Biden will travel to the Belgian capital, Brussels, next week for a meeting with Nato leaders to discuss the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and reassure allies of the US’s commitment to the defense alliance.“His goal is to meet in person, face-to-face with his European counterparts and talk about where we are at this point in the conflict in the invasion of Ukraine by Russia,” the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, said on Tuesday.She added: “We’ve been incredibly aligned to date – that doesn’t happen by accident. The president is a big believer in face-to-face diplomacy, so it’s an opportunity to do exactly that.”TopicsUS CongressUS politicsUkraineRussiaVolodymyr ZelenskiyEuropeJoe BidennewsReuse this content More

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    Volodymyr Zelenskiy expected to urge jet transfer in address to US Congress

    Volodymyr Zelenskiy expected to urge jet transfer in address to US CongressLeaders prepare to welcome Ukraine president before Wednesday speech amid divisions over question of planes

    Russia-Ukraine war – latest updates
    Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, will address Congress on Wednesday in what could prove his most powerful plea yet for the west to take a tougher line against Vladimir Putin.Kremlin memos urged Russian media to use Tucker Carlson clips – reportRead moreZelenskiy is expected to use the virtual address to urge members of the House of Representatives and Senate to intensify pressure on Joe Biden to allow the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland.The House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said in a joint letter to members: “The Congress, our country and the world are in awe of the people of Ukraine, who have shown extraordinary courage, resilience and determination in the face of Russia’s unprovoked, vicious and illegal war.”They added: “The Congress remains unwavering in our commitment to supporting Ukraine as they face Putin’s cruel and diabolical aggression, and to passing legislation to cripple and isolate the Russian economy as well as deliver humanitarian, security and economic assistance to Ukraine.“We look forward to the privilege of welcoming President Zelenskiy’s address to the House and Senate and to convey our support to the people of Ukraine as they bravely defend democracy.”Zelenskiy, who will speak at 9am Washington time on Wednesday, has been seeking to drum up support with video briefings of foreign audiences. Last week he received a standing ovation from the British parliament and echoed William Shakespeare (“The question for us now is: ‘To be or not to be’”) and Winston Churchill (“We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets”).On Tuesday, the TV actor and comedian turned resistance leader, who has proved adept at communications under siege, is scheduled to address the Canadian parliament in Ottawa. He is also due to speak to Israel’s parliament at some stage.On 5 March, dressed in a military-green T-shirt and seated beside a Ukrainian flag, Zelenskiy spoke to more than 280 members of the House and Senate in a video call. He is said to have made a “desperate plea” for aircraft to fight Russian invaders.Most members of Congress back the White House’s refusal to attempt to impose a “no-fly zone” that could entail US pilots firing on Russians and trigger a wider conflict.Chris Murphy, chairman of the Senate appropriations homeland security subcommittee, told the Hill: “This is the most dangerous moment since the Cuban missile crisis. We have never been this close to direct conflict with Russia.“We made the right decision to openly support the Ukrainians but we just should understand the unprecedented moment that we’re living in today where we’re openly funding war against a nuclear power.”But there is a growing split over Poland’s offer to send Soviet-style MiG-29 fighter jets, which Ukrainian pilots are capable of flying, to Ukraine via a US airbase in Germany.The White House and Pentagon have rejected the proposal, wary that an increasingly reckless Putin could perceive it as escalatory and saying it raised “serious concerns” for the entire Nato alliance. Republicans and some Democrats say Zelenskiy’s request should be met.Mitt Romney, a Republican senator from Utah, said last week: “He has asked us for aircraft – specifically MiGs. We need to get him those MiGs. It is a bipartisan message.”Rob Portman, a Republican senator from Ohio visiting the Ukraine-Poland border, told CNN: “What we’ve heard directly from the Ukrainians is they want them badly. They want the ability to have better control over the skies in order to give them a fighting chance. I don’t understand why we’re not doing it.”The Democratic senator Amy Klobuchar, from Minnesota, was also on the visit. She said she had spoken to Biden “about 10 days ago” about the fighters, adding: “I’d like to see the planes over there.”The Democratic-controlled Congress approved $13.6bn in humanitarian and security aid to Ukraine last Thursday, as part of a $1.5tn spending bill that funds US government operations through 30 September.The US and allies have imposed broad sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Biden has announced a US ban on Russian oil imports, seen as politically risky amid soaring gas prices.Last Friday the president took more steps to punish Russia economically, targeting trade and shutting down development funds while announcing a ban on imports of Russian seafood, vodka and diamonds. On Saturday he authorised $200m in additional military equipment for Ukraine.About 59% of Americans believe Biden has been making the right decisions when it comes to the situation in Ukraine, including more than one in three Republicans, according to Navigator Research. However, asked whether they approve of Biden’s handling of the issue, Americans are more polarised, with 49% disapproving and 43% approving.‘Cynical, craven’ Republicans out to bash Biden, not Putin, over gas pricesRead moreBiden’s predecessor as president, Donald Trump, again refused to condemn Putin at a rally in South Carolina on Saturday.“It happens to be a man that is just driven, he’s driven to put it together,” Trump said, while claiming the war would never have happened if he was still in the White House.On Monday a fourth round of talks between Ukraine and Russia were held via videoconference amid deadly air strikes in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. At the weekend, Russian airstrikes killed 35 people at a military base near Yavoriv, outside Lviv – perilously close to the frontier with Poland, a Nato member.In a video address, Zelenskiy warned: “If you do not close our sky, it is only a matter of time before Russian missiles fall on your territory, on Nato territory, on the homes of Nato citizens.”He urged Nato to impose a no-fly zone – a request he is likely to repeat to Congress on Wednesday.TopicsVolodymyr ZelenskiyUkraineRussiaUS CongressJoe BidenHouse of RepresentativesUS SenatenewsReuse this content More

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    US condemns Putin nuclear deterrence order but cautiously welcomes talks report

    US condemns Putin nuclear deterrence order but cautiously welcomes talks report
    Psaki: Russia ‘manufacturing threats to justify aggression’
    Analysis: Nuclear posturing requires west to tread carefully
    Ukraine crisis – live coverage
    The Biden administration on Sunday condemned Vladimir Putin’s decision to place Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. The White House also faced growing calls from senior Republicans to target Russia’s energy sector with new sanctions.Vladimir Putin puts Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alertRead moreAs Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entered its fourth day, the US also expressed guarded optimism over talks between delegations from the two countries set to take place inside Ukraine, near the Belarusian border, on Monday.Speaking on ABC’s This Week, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, described the nuclear deterrence announcement as an example of Putin “manufacturing threats that don’t exist in order to justify further aggression”.In televised comments, Putin said he had ordered “the deterrence forces of the Russian army to a special mode of combat duty”, due to “aggressive statements” from Nato leaders. Analysts told the Guardian that while the order itself was not immediately clear, it was not indicative of preparation for a first strike.Psaki said: “At no point has Russia been under threat from Nato, has Russia been under threat from Ukraine, this is all a pattern from President Putin. And we’re going to stand up for it. We have the ability to defend ourselves, but we also need to call out what we’re seeing here from President Putin.”Biden administration officials expressed tentative support for planned talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, as announced by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.The US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told CNN’s State of the Union the US would “look forward to what comes out of those discussions.“As you know … we leaned in on diplomacy with the Russians throughout this process and we hoped that Putin would find a way to the negotiating table and he made the unfortunate decision of aggression over diplomacy.”Pressed on whether she believed the talks announcement indicated a good faith effort on behalf of Russia, Thomas Greenfield responded: “I can’t get into Putin’s head or into Russian reasoning, so it remains to be seen.”The talks announcement was tentatively welcomed by the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who told CNN he had “absolute and full confidence” in Zelenskiy’s judgment on “whether it is right to sit down and find a political solution”.But Stoltenberg also expressed concerns about Russia’s motivations.“It remains to be seen whether Russia is really willing to make some serious compromises and also to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine,” he said.Stoltenberg characterized Putin’s decision to order Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert as “dangerous rhetoric” and “a behaviour that is irresponsible”.The Biden administration has issued tough sanctions, targeting banks and the finances of some Russian oligarchs as well as restricting export of vital technologies key to Russian military and economic development.Over the weekend, the US and its European allies announced plans to target the Russian central bank’s foreign reserves and to block selected Russian financial institutions from the Swift messaging system for international payments.00:48But the sanctions have not yet targeted oil and gas exports, which reportedly accounted for 36% of Russia’s annual budget last year. That has lead to criticism both inside the Ukraine and in the US.On Sunday Tom Cotton, a Republican senator from Arkansas and a prominent foreign policy hawk, urged the administration to continue to amplify sanctions.“It’s time for the president and some of our European partners to quit pussyfooting around,” he told ABC. “The financial sanctions announced last night are riddled with loopholes.”Donald Trump defends calling Putin ‘smart’, hints at 2024 presidential bidRead moreCotton was also grilled on Donald Trump’s stance on the war. Trump, who often praised Putin while he was in the White House, finally condemned the invasion during a speech on Saturday night, but also continued to praise the Russian leader.Cotton refused four times to condemn or comment on Trump’s record.The Biden administration has not ruled out further sanctions and has alluded to further measures being taken as the war progresses.“The purpose of the sanctions are to put as much pressure on the Russian economy as possible. And we want to do as much as we can to protect the impact on our own economy,” Thomas-Greenfield said.“But we’re continuing to look at new and even harsher measures against the Russians.”TopicsUkraineRussiaEuropeUS foreign policyUS national securityUS politicsJoe BidennewsReuse this content More

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    Ukraine-Russia crisis: who’s winning the international influence war?

    Ukraine-Russia crisis: who’s winning the international influence war? The balance of power in the diplomatic battle is shifting constantly. But are any of the key players making real advances?Briefly raised hopes of averting a “horrendous” war in Ukraine are fading again after the US predicted an invasion in the “next several days” and British officials said they believed Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, had decided to attack.The mood in Washington and London had shifted abruptly after Russian-backed separatists shelled Ukrainian targets in the disputed eastern Donbas region. Moscow claimed Kyiv’s forces opened fire first. Clashes are continuing.Analysis: what can the west expect if Putin gives order to invade?Read more US president Joe Biden said that Russia was “engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in” and was increasing, not reducing, troop numbers. That analysis was echoed in other Nato and EU countries, which are preparing punitive sanctions. Diplomatic efforts to halt the slide to war are not yet exhausted. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, is due to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Europe this week – assuming there is no invasion. They will discuss Russia’s demands, delivered in writing last week, for a Nato withdrawal from eastern Europe and curbs on US missile deployments. Lavrov will also insist Ukraine be permanently denied Nato membership.In the documents, which are a formal response to American proposals for continued dialogue, Russia warns it will be forced to take measures of an unspecified “military-technical character” if its concerns are not addressed.Western leaders, including Boris Johnson, Kamala Harris, the US vice-president, Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, and Ukraine’s president will discuss the crisis this weekend at the annual Munich security conference. Unusually, Russia and China will not attend.Meanwhile, global stock markets reacted badly to increased fears of war, with share prices falling sharply. Gloom about the prospects for peace overwhelmed a midweek surge of optimism, sparked when predictions that Russia would invade last Wednesday proved wrong. Instead, Putin said he was pulling back some forces from Ukraine’s border. It seemed catastrophe had been averted. Yet within hours US and Nato officials were claiming the pullback was illusory. The White House flatly accused Russia of lying, saying troop numbers have swelled to around 150,000.For his part, Putin alleged, without evidence, that “genocide” against ethnic Russians was under way in the Donbas – another possible pretext for invasion. He continues to insist his troops are withdrawing and that there is no intention to attackWho and what to believe? The next few days could be a turning point. Or the stand-off could drag on inconclusively for months. The only certainty is that the future of Ukraine, and of relations between Russia and the west, hangs in the balance this weekend. Although an armed invasion has not yet happened, the 2022 “war for Ukraine” is already being waged on multiple non-military, political, diplomatic, economic, technological and covert fronts. So who’s winning so far?Vladimir PutinThe question on everyone’s lips: what does Putin want? One theory is this former low-level KGB officer and part-time taxi driver has a massive chip on his shoulder.He has a small man’s visceral need to prove his (and Russia’s) superiority to the western victors of the cold war – but also to the former Soviet elites, from whose ranks he was excluded.A less complex explanation is that Putin views Ukraine as an integral part of historical Russia and Ukrainians and Russians as one people. He claims Ukraine is not a real country. For him, re-absorption into the fatherland is natural and logical, while efforts by Kyiv’s leaders to align with the west are anathema.Experts say Putin is intent on recreating the supposed glories of the Soviet era. He calls the collapse of the Soviet Union a geopolitical tragedy.Looked at this way, a conquest of Ukraine is part of a larger scheme to rebuild a Russian sphere of influence encompassing eastern Europe and central Asia. More mundanely, Putin’s actions can be explained by genuine fear that Russia’s security is threatened, his (disputed) belief that Nato broke a pledge not to expand up to Russia’s borders, and concern that it may accept Ukraine’s membership. Putin, a de facto dictator, feels threatened by a pro-western, democratic Ukraine on his doorstep.Is he winning? Putin has succeeded in forcing the west to consider his security concerns. He has intimidated Ukraine. And he has reminded a rattled Europe of its dependency on Russian gas.At the same time, he has hugely reinvigorated Nato, permanently changed western security assumptions, united the US and Europe against him, and reinforced Russia’s reputation as a rogue state that ignores international law and breaks its word.Joe BidenThe US president was relatively quick out of the blocks over Ukraine. He needed to be. Last year’s chaotic US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the resulting damage to Nato’s credibility were laid at his door. With Covid and economic woes already hurting his domestic approval ratings, Biden could not afford a repeat foreign policy disaster.Having made promotion of democracy and human rights around the world a key foreign policy objective, Biden could also not stand back as Russia threatened a free, independent, democratic state.Biden’s approach to the crisis is influenced by two additional strategic factors. One is his aim to reboot the transatlantic alliance, undermined by his predecessor Donald Trump. The other is his desire to demonstrate to China, Russia’s ally, that the US will stoutly support its friends, be they in Ukraine or Taiwan.Biden has sent US troops to reinforce Nato’s eastern flank, assured Kyiv of non-military US support, and stiffened European backbones via an intense diplomatic offensive. In an unusual step, the US continues to disclose detailed (mostly unsubstantiated) intelligence about Russian intentions in an apparent attempt to pre-empt and forestall Putin’s next move.Biden’s tactics may have succeeded in heading off an invasion until now. There are two large caveats. One is that Washington’s attempts to find a diplomatic solution have struggled, while its tough stance may have compromised European efforts. This vacuum is dangerous. The other big reservation is that Biden controversially vowed from the start that US forces would not fight to defend non-Nato Ukraine – despite past US interventions in non-Nato Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere.Putin could yet take catastrophic advantage of this most un-American display of caution.Volodymyr ZelenskiyUkraine’s president impressed world leaders in the Munich security conference this weekend with a brave and punchy speech after ignoring warnings to stay at home for fear of a Russian-inspired coup attempt. His response to the unfolding crisis has surprised some in the west. Criticising alarming claims in Washington and London about an “any day” invasion, Zelenskiy said such suggestions risked causing panic and harming his country’s economy. As Russian military pressure increased last week, the official tone in Kyiv shifted. But by and large Ukrainians appear unimpressed by frantic talk of war. A “day of unity” last Wednesday – the supposed invasion D-day – was not widely supported. As western diplomats and nationals hastily evacuate, most Ukrainians are firmly staying put.One explanation is that people have learned to live with threats from Russia. Low-intensity conflict with Russian-backed Donbas separatists has become the new normal since 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea. Last week’s passage of a resolution in the Russian Duma (parliament) supporting independence for the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” in the Donbas was an attempt to increase Putin’s leverage. Such a unilateral move would spell the end for the so-called Minsk accords, whose terms are disputed by both sides.Ukraine’s aspiration to join Nato lies at the heart of the crisis. Zelenskiy is being pressed by European governments to drop this objective, a key Russian demand, and adopt a neutral, non-aligned status. So far at least, the Kyiv government, cast in the role of underdog, has benefited from increased international support, weapons deliveries and financial aid. It says any war would be about Europe’s future, not just Ukraine’s.True or not, Ukrainians will be the big losers if Putin resorts to force.Emmanuel Macron and Olaf ScholzEmmanuel Macron, the French president who also holds the rotating presidency of the EU council of ministers, has thrust himself into the diplomatic frontline. As the Americans and Russians haggled over Moscow’s demands for new security arrangements in Europe, Macron met Putin in Moscow and sketched possible compromises.These ideas, including recognition of Russian concerns about Nato expansion, its forward deployments in eastern Europe, and current and future US missile capabilities in Poland and Romania, may yet provide the basis for a deal. Macron also raised the possibility of Ukraine adopting neutral status, not unlike Finland during the cold war.Macron publicly supports the US-orchestrated plan to impose severe sanctions on Russia should it invade, and insists he acts in close consultation with Washington. But his Moscow talks raised eyebrows. British officials accused him of appeasement and of undermining the west’s united front.While Macron can shrug off criticism from London, he needs the backing of Germany, the biggest European player. But Olaf Scholz, its newly elected chancellor, has appeared in two minds. On the one hand he wants to salvage the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. On the other he is under intense pressure from Biden to abandon it in support of anti-Kremlin sanctions.Yet Scholz surprised his critics last week when he met Putin in Moscow. He delivered a feisty performance, raising questions about media freedom and human rights.That may have reassured hawkish allies such as Poland and the Baltic republics, which have accused him of being “soft” on Russia. At the same time, Scholz extracted a commitment from Putin to continue dialogue in line with Macron’s approach.The EU commission has been sidelined during the crisis. But the French and German leaders have emerged with reputations enhanced. So far.Boris JohnsonBeset by scandals arising from illegal lockdown parties and reportedly anxious to change the subject, Boris Johnson seized on the Ukraine crisis in late January after having previously largely ignored it.At his direction Downing St began briefing about a big, cross-departmental Whitehall push to tackle the crisis. Britain, Johnson claimed, would lead western attempts to deter Russia. But saying it does not make it so. Suggestions that this new effort to aid Ukraine was part of so-called Operation Save Big Dog to rescue his career were denied, naturally.The UK has since sent extra troops to Estonia, missiles to Ukraine, and placed Royal Navy ships on alert. It is typically iffy about accepting refugees, but has offered humanitarian aid.But Britain’s emphasis on muscular deterrence has come at the expense of diplomacy. It has contributed almost nothing to peace-making efforts. When Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, met Lavrov in Moscow, their talks ended in an icy standoff.Johnson has gratuitously undermined Macron’s Moscow initiative while Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, spoke disparagingly of a “whiff of Munich”. Meanwhile, the government has yet to enforce effective measures to curb Russian money-laundering in London.All else aside, the Ukraine crisis has brutally underscored Britain’s diminished international influence abroad. Separated by choice from the EU, the UK is now viewed in Russia (and much of Europe) as little more than a cheerleader and errand boy for America.When Johnson asked Biden what else the UK could do in a phone call last week, the US president replied: “We’re not going anywhere without you, pal.” That summed up Britain’s war to date. The rule of thumb for post-Brexit foreign policy: ask politely what Washington wants, then follow directions.TopicsUkraineThe ObserverRussiaVladimir PutinUS politicsJoe BidenVolodymyr ZelenskiyEmmanuel MacronfeaturesReuse this content More