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      US third-party centrists file formal complaint over election ‘conspiracy’

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      The centrist group No Labels has filed a formal complaint with the justice department, asking it to investigate an “alleged unlawful conspiracy” to shut down its effort to secure ballot access for the 2024 presidential election.No Labels has not yet decided whether it will run a third party against Joe Biden and the Republican nominee, widely expected to be Donald Trump, in November’s presidential election. Critics say the effort would have the unintended consequence of hurting Biden and helping Trump.Last week No Labels sent an eight-page letter to the justice department’s Kristen Clarke, assistant attorney general for the civil rights division, and Nicole Argentieri, acting assistant attorney general for the criminal division, accusing its opponents of violating federal law including racketeering and a number of criminal civil rights provisions.“There is a group of activists and operatives and party officials who are participating in alleged illegal conspiracy to use intimidation, harassment and fear against representatives of No Labels, its donors and its potential candidates,” Dan Webb, a No Labels leader who has served as the US attorney in Chicago, told a press conference in Washington DC on Thursday.The letter cites examples including a recent Semafor report on an 80-minute call organised by Matt Bennett, co-founder of the thinktank Third Way. One attendee explained on the call how they would dissuade candidates from running on a No Labels unity ticket: “Through every channel we have, to their donors, their friends, the press, everyone – everyone – should send the message: if you have one fingernail clipping of a skeleton in your closet, we will find it.”In another case, Holly Page, a co-founder of No Labels, was allegedly approached by a representative of the Lincoln Project and told to walk away from the group. She was allegedly warned: “You have no idea of the forces aligned against you. You will never be able to work in Democratic politics again.”The letter also notes that Rick Wilson, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, posted a tweet last year of a video in which he said No Labels and its leaders “need to be burned to the fucking ground politically”.At Thursday’s press conference, Pat McCrory, a national co-chair and former governor of North Carolina, responded: “Who do they think they are, Tony Soprano? I hope not.”Benjamin Chavis Jr, a No Labels national co-chair and a leader and veteran civil rights activist, said: “The alleged conspiracy to stop No Labels is a brazen voter suppression effort.“Based on the evidence that we have submitted to the United States Department of Justice, if individuals were working to frighten and harass an organisation seeking to register disenfranchised voters, the country would be outraged and those individuals would likely be prosecuted. That is what is happening today and needs to be exposed for what it is.”Joe Lieberman, a No Labels National founding chair and former senator, added: “It’s a matter of giving voice to millions of Americans who feel abandoned by the Democratic and Republican political establishments. They’re angry at the two major parties. Who can blame them?“And they’re profoundly disappointed that they’re going to be forced to choose once again between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. They want a third choice. There’s a lot of talk lately about democracy being on the ballot in 2024 and in many ways it is. But I think it’s really important to understand what we mean by the word democracy.”Demand for a third-party presidential candidate has reached record highs amid deep voter dissatisfaction with 81-year-old Biden and Trump, who faces 91 criminal charges across four cases. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in December showed six in 10 respondents were unhappy with the two-party system and wanted a third choice.Founded in 2009, No Labels is now on the ballot in 14 states and say it will decide in March whether to offer its ballot line to a unity presidential ticket. If it does, the Unity ticket presidential campaign will be responsible for securing ballot access in the final 18 states plus the District of Columbia.On Tuesday a federal judge blocked the Arizona secretary of state, Adrian Fontes, from recognizing candidates wanting to run for office under the No Labels banner aside from the party’s yet-to-be-chosen ticket for president and vice-president. Lieberman acknowledged that, should Nikki Haley drop out of the Republican primary race and express an interest in joining a No Labels ticket, she would “deserve serious consideration”.The Lincoln Project rejected No Labels’ legal complaint, saying in statement: “No Labels is a dark money group that is so consumed with its own quest for power and relevancy that it is willing to risk electing Trump, despite their own acknowledgment that he is a dangerous ideologue.“And like Trump, they want to weaponize the DoJ to get to attack their opponents for protected political speech. This is a desperate attempt to salvage their failing campaign and keep their fleeing supporters who have finally seen through their facade.” More

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      Climate crisis ignored by Republicans as Trump vows to ‘drill, baby, drill’

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      In the wake of an Iowa primary election chilled in a record blast of cold weather – which scientists say may, counterintuitively, have been worsened by global heating – Republican presidential candidates are embracing the fossil fuel industry tighter than ever, with little to say about the growing toll the climate crisis is taking upon Americans.The remaining contenders for the US presidential nomination – frontrunner Donald Trump, along with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis – all used the Iowa caucus to promise surging levels of oil and gas drilling if elected, along with the wholesale abolition of Joe Biden’s climate change policies.Trump, who comfortably won the Iowa poll, said “we are going to drill, baby, drill” once elected, in a Fox News town hall on the eve of the primary. “We have more liquid gold under our feet; energy, oil and gas than any other country in the world,” the multiply indicted former president said. “We have a lot of potential income.”Trump also called clean energy a “new scam business” and went on a lengthy digression on how energy is important in the making of donuts and hamburgers. The Trump campaign has accused Biden of trying to prevent Americans from buying non-electric cars – no such prohibition exists – and even for causing people’s dishes to be dirty by imposing new efficiency standards for dishwashers.Haley, meanwhile, has called the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate bill that provides tax credits for renewable energy production and electric car purchases, a “communist manifesto” and used the Iowa election to promise to “roll back all of Biden’s green subsidies because they’re misplaced”. DeSantis, who came second in Iowa, said that on his first day as president he would “take Biden’s Green New Deal, we tear it up and we throw it in the trash can. It is bad for this country.”Last year was, globally, the hottest ever recorded, and scientists have warned of mounting calamities as the world barrels through agreed temperature limits. Last year, the US suffered a record number of disasters costing at least $1bn in damages, with the climate crisis spurring fiercer wildfires, storms and extreme heat.Such concerns were largely unvoiced in frigid Iowa, however, apart from by young climate activists who disrupted rallies held by Trump, Haley and DeSantis. On Sunday, a 17-year-old activist from the Sunrise climate group interrupted a Trump speech to shout: “Mr Trump your campaign is funded by fossil fuel millionaires. Do you represent them, or ordinary people like me?”She was drowned out by boos from Trump supporters, and then scolded from the stage by the former president, who told the activist to “go home to mommy.” He then said the protester was “young and immature”.The continued championing of fossil fuels, and dismissal of young people’s worries about climate change, shows that the Republican candidates are “determined to drag us into a chaotic world just to make a bit more money”, said Aru Shiney-Ajay, executive director of Sunrise.“Not a single Republican is addressing root causes of the climate crisis. They’ve been bought out by oil and gas billionaires,” said Shiney-Ajay, who added that young climate activists were also dismayed at Biden, who has overseen a record glut of oil and gas drilling, despite Republican claims he has hindered US energy production.“The reality is that every presidential candidate, including Joe Biden, is falling so far short of the climate ambition we need, despite there being millions of lives at stake,” she said.Some Republicans have warned that the party must take climate change seriously if it is to remain viable electorally, with increasing numbers of Americans alarmed about the impacts of global heating. “If conservatives are scared to talk about the climate, then we’re not going to have a seat at the table when decisions are made,” said Buddy Carter, a Republican congressman from Georgia. “We are right on policy, so we need a seat at the table.”Still, polling has shown that the climate crisis remains of minor importance to Republican voters, compared to issues such as the economy and inflation, with just 13% of them saying it is a top priority in a Pew survey last year. None of the party’s leading presidential candidates have sought to significantly change this dynamic, to the frustration of some climate-conscious conservatives.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Republican candidates can’t lose sight of the big picture amid the primary season,” said Danielle Butcher Franz, the chief executive of the advocacy arm of the American Conservation Coalition, a conservative climate group.“Beyond the primary, the next Republican nominee must win over the hearts and minds of young Americans by speaking to the issue they care most about: climate change.”Butcher Franz said there must be “more productive rhetoric and real policy solutions from Republicans. The race for 2024 is an opportunity to do so that no candidate has fully seized.”Even if the candidates aren’t talking much about climate change, its effects are still being directly felt as the Republican primary field moves on to New Hampshire. Icily cold temperatures have gripped much of the US – the Iowa caucus was the coldest on record – due to a blast of Arctic-like weather that has triggered power blackouts, halted flights and caused schools to shut in parts of the country.The Arctic is heating up at four times the rate of the global average, and scientists think this is affecting the jet stream, a river of strong winds that steers weather across the northern hemisphere, and the polar vortex, another current of winds that usually keeps frigid Arctic air over the polar region. Both these systems risk becoming “wavier”, recent research has found, meaning Arctic-like conditions can meander far further south than normal.The current blast of cold weather is “certainly much more likely given how much the planet is warming” said Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental who has studied the phenomenon. “There is scientific evidence that makes severe winter weather consistent or explainable in a warming world. One does not negate the other.”Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Woods Hole Research Center, said that while it seems counterintuitive, the science was “becoming clear” that extreme cold spells will be a consequence of global heating.“The irony is pretty rich” that Iowa has experienced such conditions during a Republican presidential primary, Francis added. “Of course, the deniers won’t see it that way, and won’t listen to any science that says otherwise.” More

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      It isn’t ‘anti-democratic’ to bar Trump from office. It’s needed to protect democracy | Steven Greenhouse

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      Over the decades, several US supreme court justices have warned that the US constitution is not a suicide pact – in other words, that the constitution shouldn’t be interpreted in ways that jeopardize the survival of our nation and our democracy.Right now, however, I worry that the supreme court’s rightwing supermajority, in its anticipated rush to prohibit states from kicking Donald Trump off the ballot, will turn the constitution into a suicide pact. By letting an insurrectionist like Trump remain on the ballot – a man who spurned centuries of constitutional tradition by refusing to peacefully turn over the reins of power to the man who defeated him – the supreme court would be putting out a welcome mat to a candidate who has made no secret of his plans to trample all over the constitution and trash our democratic traditions.Many legal experts worry that the rightwing justices will focus on the wrong issue when the high court takes up the historic Colorado case about whether a state can kick Trump off the ballot – a case in which the court might also decide whether Trump should be disqualified from the ballot in all 50 states.When the court considers that case, the six conservative justices might focus on their concerns about infuriating rightwing voters, their political soulmates, if they rule that the constitution requires that Trump be disqualified as an insurrectionist. The justices will also no doubt worry that they’ll be seen as taking a high-handed, anti-democratic step if they deny voters the opportunity to vote for Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee.But the justices’ job is not to worry about angering the Maga crowd. Their job is to focus on enforcing the text of the constitution and, along with it, preserving our democracy. An insurrectionist candidate who stands a good chance of winning the presidency in November could drive a stake through the heart of America’s democracy.The Colorado case centers on the 14th amendment, a post-civil war measure that aimed to ensure all citizens – especially formerly enslaved people – the equal protection of the law. Section 3 of that amendment aimed to bar supporters of the Confederacy who had rebelled against the United States and its constitution from holding office: “No person shall be a senator or representative in Congress, or … hold any office, civil or military, under the United States … who, having previously taken an oath … to support the constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”One can’t honestly deny that Trump promoted and aided an insurrection. He unarguably gave “aid or comfort” to the January 6 assault on the Capitol, which was essentially a coup attempt that sought to prevent the rightfully elected president, Joe Biden, from taking office. In disqualifying Trump, the Colorado supreme court wrote: “The record amply established that the events of January 6 constituted a concerted and public use of force or threat of force by a group of people to hinder or prevent the US government from taking the actions necessary to accomplish the peaceful transfer of power in this country. Under any viable definition, this constituted an insurrection.”The House select committee on January 6 provided a mountain of evidence showing that Trump had planned and backed that insurrection. Trump not only “summoned tens of thousands of supporters to Washington for Jan. 6”, the committee established, but also urged them to march to the Capitol to “take back” the country. Even as rioters stormed the Capitol and assaulted the police, Trump tweeted messages that whipped up the violent crowd’s animus against the then vice-president, Mike Pence.Trump, the committee wrote, also “refused repeated requests over a multiple-hour period that he instruct his violent supporters to disperse and leave the Capitol”. Trump also refused to call in the national guard or any federal law enforcement to stop the assault on the Capitol.The Court’s job is to uphold and enforce the Constitution without fear or favor, and it shouldn’t be cowed by anyone, not by Trump’s supporters and certainly not by Trump, who dangerously warned of “big, big trouble” if the justices rule against him in this case.Constitutional scholars say the Supreme Court might engage in some legal legerdemain and search for some escape clause to keep Trump on the ballot and prohibit states from disqualifying him. Some scholars predict the justices will rule that Trump must first be convicted in court as an insurrectionist before he can be disqualified – even though many supporters of the Confederacy were disqualified from holding office without being convicted in court and even though Section 3 says nothing about requiring convictions.Some constitutional experts contend that Section 3 doesn’t apply to presidents and that Trump therefore shouldn’t be disqualified under it. Section 3 specifically mentions disqualifying Senators and House members, but it doesn’t mention the presidency. But that’s undoubtedly because Section 3’s authors never dreamed that a past insurrectionist would ever be running for president. There can’t be any doubt that Section 3’s authors would have insisted on disqualifying Jefferson Davis, the president of the Confederacy, if he had become a candidate for the presidency of the United States.If the supreme court’s six rightwing justices allow Trump to stay on the ballot, they can do so only by turning their backs on the methods of constitutional interpretation that they have repeatedly trumpeted: textualism and originalism. Not only is the text of Section 3 crystal clear about barring insurrectionists, but the Radical Republicans who wrote the 14th amendment would have been repulsed by the idea of letting an insurrectionist like Trump run for the highest office of the land.Trump of course complains that the push to disqualify him is a leftist plot. But the two constitutional scholars who led the way in arguing that Trump should be disqualified – William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen – are highly regarded conservative members of the Federalist Society. Moreover, one of the jurists most respected by conservatives, former federal judge J Michael Luttig, has lauded the Colorado supreme court’s decision as “unassailable”.In decades past, the US supreme court did not shrink from issuing decisions that offended and angered millions of Americans, whether it was enraging many white southerners by barring school segregation in Brown v Board of Education, or infuriating millions of women by overturning Roe v Wade, or angering a wide swath of Democrats by cutting short the vote count to deliver victory to George W Bush over Al Gore. In the Colorado disqualification case, the justices should not shrink from angering Trump supporters. The justices should do what they’ve taken an oath to do: enforce the letter of the law.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionNotwithstanding what Trump’s defenders say, those who seek to disqualify Trump are not suppressing democracy. They are seeking to enforce the constitution’s clear language against the nation’s most prominent insurrectionist. The person who is seeking to suppress democracy is Trump (along with many of his Maga supporters).Trump was anti-democratic in seeking to overturn Biden’s legitimate, 51-47% victory in 2020. Trump was anti-democratic when he called for terminating the constitution. Trump has threatened to be a dictator on day one, and someone who threatens to be dictator on his first day in office might not stop there.Moreover, whenever Trump loses – for instance, when he lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz – he claims that he was cheated and demands that legitimate democratic results be discarded. Trump’s philosophy is to accept election results only when he wins and never when he loses. What can be more anti-democratic than that? That anti-democratic philosophy fueled the January 6 insurrection.There’s no denying that on a certain level it would be anti-democratic to bar a popular candidate like Trump from the ballot, and, yes, that could stir up an ugly and perhaps violent and illegal response from the Maga crowd. Yet let’s not forget that much of the constitution is anti-democratic and counter-majoritarian; it, for instance, prohibits a majority of lawmakers from restricting your freedom of speech or your freedom to practice your religion.Those who warn that it would be anti-democratic to kick Trump off the ballot should realize that Trump’s election as president would be a far graver and longer-lasting risk to our democracy. This is a man who has talked of being a dictator, of terminating the constitution, of using his second presidential term to exact vengeance against his enemies and critics. This is a man who even floated the idea of executing Mark Milley, the general who was chairman of Trump’s joint chiefs of staff.If the supreme court lets Trump remain on the ballot, history may remember John Roberts and company as the court that gave a bright green light to the election of an insurrectionist who would end our democracy as we know it.For the nine justices, the bottom line should be not only that Trump was an insurrectionist, but that Trump has loudly signaled that if he’s elected to a second term, he will trample all over our constitutional and democratic norms. If the justices interpret the constitution to let insurrectionist Trump remain on the ballot, the Roberts court may be taking a giant, highly regrettable step toward turning our constitution into a suicide pact for our democracy.
      Steven Greenhouse is an American labor and workplace journalist and writer More

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      California governor vows to block proposed ban on tackle football for kids

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      California’s governor said he will not sign a proposed ban on tackle football for children under 12, ending advocates’ short-lived hopes of having the bill become law this year.“I will not sign legislation that bans youth tackle football,” Newsom said in a statement late on Tuesday. “I am deeply concerned about the health and safety of our young athletes, but an outright ban is not the answer.”Last week, a legislative committee sent the proposal from Democratic assemblymember Kevin McCarty to the floor of the state assembly, clearing the way for a vote by the end of the month.But even if the bill were to pass, Newsom’s pledge not to sign it – first reported by Politico – means there is little, if any, chance of it becoming law this year. While California lawmakers have the power to override a veto, they have not done that in more than four decades.The proposal to ban youth tackle football gained momentum this year amid increasing concern about concussions along with the rise in popularity of flag football. The proposal would have have been phased in gradually through 2029 and would have have kids play flag football until age 12, giving athletes about three years of playing tackle football before entering high school. Advocates say that would limit children’s risk of brain damage, which studies have shown increases the longer a person plays tackle football.But the bill prompted strong opposition from parents, coaches and kids. Many attended a public hearing in the California capitol last week wearing their football jerseys while asking lawmakers not to pass the bill.California has regulated youth tackle football, with Newsom signing a law that took effect in 2021 limiting teams to just two full-contact practices per week of not more than 30 minutes each during the regular season. That law also required youth tackle football coaches to have training on concussions and other head injuries.But the proposed ban was a step too far for the governor, who is a potential candidate for president beyond 2024. Newsom, now in his second term, is known nationally for his liberal policies, including banning the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035. But he also has acted as a bulwark against the Democratic legislature’s most progressive ideas, including vetoing a bill last year that would have decriminalized some psychedelic mushrooms and some other hallucinogens.Newsom, who has four children, pledged to work with lawmakers “to strengthen safety in youth football – while ensuring parents have the freedom to decide which sports are most appropriate for their children”.“As part of that process, we will consult with health and sports medicine experts, coaches, parents, and community members to ensure California maintains the highest standards in the country for youth football safety,” Newsom said. “We owe that to the legions of families in California who have embraced youth sports.”Ron White, president of the California Youth Football Alliance, thanked Newsom for pledging to not sign the bill in a video message posted to X, formerly known as Twitter.“We collectively look forward to working with you and the California legislative body to drive the California Youth Football Act as the most comprehensive youth tackle football safety measure in the country,” White said. More

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      Senate votes against Sanders resolution to force human rights scrutiny over Israel aid

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      US senators have defeated a measure, introduced by Bernie Sanders, that would have made military aid to Israel conditional on whether the Israeli government is violating human rights and international accords in its devastating war in Gaza.A majority of senators struck down the proposal on Tuesday evening, with 72 voting to kill the measure, and 11 supporting it. Although Sanders’ effort was easily defeated, it was a notable test that reflected growing unease among Democrats over US support for Israel.The measure was a first-of-its-kind tapping into a decades-old law that would require the US state department to, within 30 days, produce a report on whether the Israeli war effort in Gaza is violating human rights and international accords. If the administration failed to do so, US military aid to Israel, long assured without question, could be quickly halted.It is one of several that progressives have proposed to raise concerns over Israel’s attacks on Gaza, where the Palestinian death toll has surpassed 24,000 and Israel’s bombardment since Hamas launched attacks on it on 7 October has displaced most of Gaza’s 2.4 million residents.“We must ensure that US aid is being used in accordance with human rights and our own laws,” Sanders said in a speech before the vote urging support for the resolution, lamenting what he described as the Senate’s failure to consider any measure looking at the war’s effect on civilians.The White House had said it opposed the resolution. The US gives Israel $3.8bn in security assistance each year, ranging from fighter jets to powerful bombs that could destroy Hamas tunnels. Biden has asked Congress to approve an additional $14bn.The measure that Sanders proposed uses a mechanism in the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, which Congress to provide oversight of US military assistance, that must be used in accordance with international human rights agreements.The measure faced an uphill battle. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress oppose any conditions on aid to Israel, and Joe Biden has staunchly stood by Israel throughout its campaign in Gaza, leaving Sanders with an uphill battle. But by forcing senators to vote on the record about whether they were willing to condition aid to Israel, Sanders and others lawmakers sparked debate on the matter.The 11 senators who supported Sanders in the procedural vote were mostly Democrats from across the party’s spectrum.Some lawmakers have increasingly pushed to place conditions on aid to Israel, which has drawn international criticism for its offensive in Gaza.“To my mind, Israel has the absolute right to defend itself from Hamas’s barbaric terrorist attack on October 7, no question about that,” Sanders told the Associated Press in an interview ahead of the vote.“But what Israel does not have a right to do – using military assistance from the United States – does not have the right to go to war against the entire Palestinian people,” said Sanders. “And in my view, that’s what has been happening.”Amid anti-war protests across the US, progressive representatives including Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Barbara Lee and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have called for a ceasefire. In a letter to the US president, many of these lawmakers stressed that thousands of children had been killed in the Israeli bombings.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionSpeaking from the Republican side before the measure was introduced on Tuesday evening, South Carolina senator Lindsay Graham said that Hamas, the Islamist group, has “militarized” schools and hospitals in the territory by operating amongst them.Israel has blamed Hamas for using hospitals as cover for military purposes, but has not provided definitive proof backing its claims that Hamas kept a “command center” under Gaza’s main al-Shifa hospital, which the Israeli Defense Forces raided in November.Two thirds of Gaza’s hospitals have been closed amidst what Biden has characterized as “indiscriminate bombings”, during a time of acute need, where United Nations agencies are warning of famine and disease as Gaza is besieged by Israel.Despite the defeat, organizations that had supported Sanders’ effort saw it as something of a victory.“The status quo in the Senate for decades has been 100% support for Israel’s military, 100% of the time from 100% of the Senate,” said Andrew O’Neill, the legislative director of Indivisible, one of the groups that backed the measure. “The fact that Sanders introduced this bill was already historic. That ten colleagues joined him is frankly remarkable.”The Associated Press contributed reporting More

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      Republican debate cancelled after Haley refuses to take stage without Trump

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      ABC News has cancelled the next Republican presidential debate after Nikki Haley said she would not appear on stage unless Donald Trump takes part.Trump has refused to participate in any of the Republican primary debates so far, making Ron DeSantis the only candidate committed to Thursday’s event in New Hampshire.“We’ve had five great debates in this campaign,” Haley said in a statement, released as she campaigned in New Hampshire. “Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.”Her statement was released a day after the all-important Iowa caucuses, which Trump won by a wide margin over Haley, who won just over 19% of the vote, and DeSantis, who earned 21% of the vote.The move also could be a result of the last debate which featured only Haley and DeSantis. Haley didn’t perform as well as expected, and DeSantis ultimately ended up beating her for second place in Iowa.Haley had argued to caucusgoers that picking her gives Republicans a better chance to defeat Biden in November, pointing to survey data showing her with the largest lead among the GOP field in a theoretical general election matchup.“Our intent was to host a debate coming out of the Iowa caucuses, but we always knew that would be contingent on the candidates and the outcome of the race,” ABC News spokesperson Van Scott said in a statement.Haley’s decision also casts doubt on another New Hampshire debate scheduled for Sunday on CNN.On X, DeSantis said Haley “is afraid to debate because she doesn’t want to answer the tough questions.” He accused her of “running to be Trump’s VP” and said that he looked “forward to debating two empty podiums in the Granite State this week”.Trump spokesman Steven Cheung on Tuesday called Haley a “desperate globalist who wants higher taxes, open borders, and China to dominate the United States”. He added: “That’s why the only people who are voting for her are Democrats who are trying to interfere in a Republican primary.”With the GOP campaign now shifting to New Hampshire, ahead of that state’s primary next week, Haley has projected confidence that her commitment to the state and surveys showing her with support there will provide her campaign with the momentum needed to cut into Trump’s strength.Along the campaign trail in Iowa over the past week, reporters had asked Haley when she would commit to participating in Thursday’s debate, hosted by ABC and WMUR-TV at Saint Anselm College.After his caucus win Trump flew to New York, where he made an appearance in court for the first day of E Jean Carroll’s defamation trial against him, before heading to a rally in New Hampshire.New Hampshire Republican party chairman Chris Ager told the Associated Press that invitations had been extended to Haley and Trump to join DeSantis on stage for the debate.“We would love to see them all,” he said in a text message. “People in NH expect to see a local debate. Candidates who skip do so at their own risk.” More

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      Tuesday briefing: What Trump’s triumph tells us about the state of the presidential race

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      Good morning. Last night, the race for the US presidency formally started – and Donald Trump has won the first round by a landslide. With 99% of votes counted, Trump has 51% of Republican support in the Iowa caucus – a victory of unprecedented dominance for any race not involving a sitting president.Ron DeSantis got 21% of votes, a very distant second place that he tried to present as a success – while Nikki Haley finished a disappointing third with 19% but claimed she now had the momentum to challenge Trump. In truth, though, the result is so decisive that it’s all but impossible to see anyone but Trump taking the nomination from here.Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s David Smith at the Trump victory party in Des Moines, explains what the results in Iowa mean for each of the three leading Republican campaigns. Here are the headlines.Five big stories
      Conservatives | Rishi Sunak is facing a Conservative meltdown over the Rwanda deportation bill after two deputy chairs said they would support rebel amendments aimed at blocking international human rights laws. Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith have defied the prime minister by backing rightwing challenges to the bill, which will be debated by parliament on Tuesday.
      Middle East crisis | The Houthi militia group has continued to attack commercial shipping, hitting an American-owned container ship with a ballistic missile in defiance of US and UK strikes on Yemen. While the strike caused no major damage, it will add to fears that the militia group retains the ability to threaten commercial shipping.
      Rail strikes | Train drivers have called a further week of rolling strikes across England from late January in their long-running dispute with operators over pay. Members of the Aslef union will strike for 24 hours at each train-operating company on the national railway on different days between Tuesday 30 January and Monday 5 February.
      Security | Hizb ut-Tahrir will be banned from organising in the UK following claims that the group is antisemitic, the home secretary has said. The Islamist group is already banned in several countries including Germany and Indonesia.
      Emmys | Beef, The Bear and the final season of Succession reigned supreme at the delayed 2023 Emmy awards. Jesse Armstrong’s hit HBO drama picked up six awards, including for actors Kieran Culkin, Sarah Snook and Matthew Macfadyen and the night’s biggest award for best drama series. See the red carpet fashion and a full list of winners.
      In depth: In freezing weather, Trump wins by an avalancheWith Joe Biden secure as the Democratic nominee, this year’s primary calendar is only about one thing: who will be his Republican challenger. The answer to that question already looks pretty obvious, and the Iowa caucus did nothing to dispel it. But after months of the phoney campaign, the first real results do have important things to tell us about the state of the race – and whether those in the Republican party who don’t want Trump can unite behind an alternative.One minor piece of housekeeping before the main event: Trump tribute act Vivek Ramaswamy finished fourth with 8% of the vote and dropped out. “Nobody knew who we were, nobody knew what we were up to,” he said. A fitting political obituary.A ‘perfect night’ for Donald TrumpIn the run-up to Iowa, Trump’s campaign argued that any victory by 13 points or more would be a historic success: the biggest previous victory was Bob Dole’s 12.8-point margin in 1988. That was a very low bar to set given polls placed him 30 points ahead of the pack, and he cleared it by a distance last night.“I don’t think there was much question beforehand, but it looks even more certain now,” said David Smith. “He won 98 out of 99 counties, and he only lost to Haley by one vote in the other. He won the middle class suburbs where he might traditionally struggle against someone more moderate. It was a perfect night for Trump – it’s all over bar the shouting.”David was at Trump’s election watch party in a cavernous conference centre. “He won so quickly that hardly anyone was there when it was announced,” he said. “So you didn’t get the customary big cheer.” When his supporters did get in, they celebrated with popcorn and beer alongside Maga hardliners like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene – as well as Nigel Farage.Iowa’s Republican voters are among the most socially conservative in the US, but Trump’s margin is so vast that there’s no obvious route for either of his main opponents to make up the difference elsewhere. “You can make the case that this is a home fixture for him in some ways, and it will be a bit tougher next week in New Hampshire – but it swings back towards him very quickly after that,” David said.His win came despite his refusal to participate in debates with Republican rivals and a less intense campaign in Iowa than Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley ran. Although he has a more professional ground operation than he did in 2016, Trump has spent much less time in the state this time around. (He made just 18 visits in 2023, against dozens for his main rivals.) “He broke the rules of retail politics in Iowa,” David said. “But strategically it was very successful. Staying away from the debates helped enforce the impression of inevitability.” Starting this week, the Trump on Trial newsletter will bring daily analysis and weekly previews of the developments in the legal cases against the Republican presidential candidate. Sign up here.DeSantis beats the polls – but still gets trouncedOn Sunday, DeSantis (above) asked his supporters: “Are you ready to make some history on Monday night?” Finishing a distant second to Trump is hardly an epochal event – but it just about does enough to keep his campaign alive, and DeSantis will now claim to have momentum heading into the New Hampshire primary next week. He told supporters: “They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us … [but] we’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa.”In recent polls, the Florida governor has been behind Nikki Haley by several percentage points. But the always-unpredictable Iowa caucus process, in which voters listen to pitches from the candidates’ representatives before casting their ballots, was further complicated by freezing temperatures that depressed turnout – expected to finish at about 110,000 voters, against 187,000 in 2016 and the lowest in almost a quarter of a century.That appears to have benefited DeSantis, who has a well-funded get-out-the-vote operation in Iowa. “He lives to fight another day,” said David. “He worked very hard in the state, and he may have been helped by the extraordinarily cold weather. Polls for the Iowa caucus are often wrong – a lot of people I spoke to tonight before the first results came in expected him to finish second.”Even so, the DeSantis campaign remains in dire straits. “In the end it is pretty soul-crushing for him,” David said. “He went to all 99 counties, and lost within half an hour.” In 2022, he appeared to hold a promising position as “Trump without the baggage” – a candidate who could carry the former president’s ultra-conservative agenda on immigration, gun rights and culture war issues without the same accompanying chaos in the White House.But refusing to criticise Trump for months in the hope that his adversary would ultimately implode on his own has made him appear weak to voters who value strength above all – and basically pointless: “The people who want Trump don’t need a mini-me Trump,” former Republican congresswoman Barbara Comstock pointed out in August. Finishing ahead of Haley does little to dispel that fundamental dynamic.Haley falls short and leaves the field dividedThe former governor of South Carolina (above) has sought to present herself as the most electable Republican candidate in a general election, pointing to a recent Wall Street Journal poll that showed her 17 points ahead of Biden when voters are asked to choose between the two. In November, an endorsement and $4m from Americans for Prosperity, an immensely powerful libertarian political campaign group founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, gave crucial credibility to her attempt to cement herself as the alternative to Trump.But last night’s results are a devastating blow to that argument. She told supporters: “I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race.” As David noted: “That’s a pretty unusual claim for the person who finished third.”Haley is likely to continue to New Hampshire, where she is second to Trump in recent polls by the relatively narrow margin of 11 points. The good news for Trump is that the narrow difference between her and DeSantis, together with her slightly better position in New Hampshire, means that neither is likely to drop out. “That’s the icing on the cake for Trump,” David said. “It blunts her momentum ahead of New Hampshire.”Although she entered politics as part of the proto-Maga Tea Party movement, Haley rejects Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and rivals have sought to portray her as too liberal to win the Republican nomination. While she largely echoes Trump on immigration, she has rejected policies like the separation of families at the border. She has focused on her foreign policy experience as Trump’s ambassador to the UN, and promised to find a compromise on abortion.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionIn the end, though, a candidate whose main appeal was electability appears likely to be fatally harmed by doing so badly in an actual vote. “If she had pulled off second, the landscape would look pretty different,” David said. “There would be a conversation about her as the challenger, and whether DeSantis is going to pull out. But instead, this looks like an illustration of fractured opposition. Neither Haley or DeSantis has ever really escaped the shadow of Trump to build their own political identities.”What else we’ve been reading
      David Smith spoke with Raymond Arsenault, the author of the first full-length biography of the late congressman and civil rights giant John Lewis (above, left). They discuss Lewis’s life, his guiding values of compassion, reconciliation and forgiveness that informed his politics and his storied career in Congress. Nimo
      After the Daily Telegraph published an opinion poll yesterday that suggested the Conservatives are heading for a 1997-style landslide defeat, Paul Goodman, the editor of ConservativeHome, has a perceptive piece on who’s behind it – and why it’s come out now. Archie
      By 2030, the global population will be older than it ever has been: one in six people will be over the age of 60. This touching and thoughtful photo essay by Ed Kashi, Ilvy Njiokiktjien, and Sara Terry documents the daily lives of 72-year-olds from around the world. Nimo
      Julian Baggini reflects on the rare consensus that has emerged around the Post Office scandal – and warns that very few injustices are likely to be so easily understood. “There has been something cathartic about this collective show of anger,” he writes. “But it is not always as easy as this to side with the angels.” Archie
      Dominic Sessa’s original plan in high school was to become a professional hockey player but a broken femur forced him to change course. His new plan was to act. Sessa spoke to Adrian Horton about the chance audition that led him to the opportunity of a lifetime. Nimo
      SportTennis | Andy Murray (above) admitted that there is a “definite possibility” that he has played his last Australian Open after the five-time finalist suffered his most sobering grand-slam defeat since returning from hip surgery. Murray lost 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 to Tomás Martín Etcheverry, the 30th seed, in the first round of the Australian Open. Follow live coverage of day three here.Football | Aitana Bonmatí said she was “proud” to be part of a generation of women “changing the game and the world” as the Spain World Cup star claimed the title of the Best Fifa women’s player for 2023 at a star-studded award ceremony in London. Lionel Messi won the men’s award for a third time, narrowly pipping Erling Haaland to the prize.Football | Nottingham Forest are facing a potential points deduction after being charged with breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR), and Everton could lose more points after being charged with a further breach of the same rules. Will Unwin’s analysis explains the spending spree that put Forest in the dock.The front pages“Defiant Houthis attack cargo ship as conflict widens in Middle East” is the headline on our Guardian print lead this morning. “Name calling” – the Daily Mirror leads with the royals and the Queen’s apparent posthumous vent about Lilibet-gate. The i has “Migrants taken off first Rwanda flight still in asylum hotels 18 months later” while the Daily Telegraph reports “Tory deputy chairmen to rebel over Rwanda Bill”. The Daily Express and the Daily Mail seek to rally Rishi Sunak – respectively, their headlines are “PM: I’ll defy Euro judges who block Rwanda flights” and “PM: I will defy Euro judges on Rwanda flights”. The Times reports “Sunak will speed Rwanda appeals in sop to rebels”. The Metro says “Child sex scandal report … 96 Rochdale groomers still free”. Top story in the Financial Times is “Better governance and IT would save £20bn a year, says spending watchdog”.Today in FocusWill South Africa’s genocide case against Israel succeed?South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza at hearings in the international court of justice. Chris McGreal reports on what happens nextCartoon of the day | Ben JenningsThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badDuring the pandemic, Henry Jephson, head of research at the Bristol Fungarium, came across a lion’s mane, a rare type of mushroom which is under threat in the UK. Jephson’s sighting of the enormous shaggy specimen was the first in eight years in south-west England, so he was shocked to see that the landowner had felled its host tree, smashing the mushroom in the process. The experience accelerated a shift in the focus of his work to conservation of native fungi alongside Natural England and the Royal Horticultural Society. Jephson now helps run a mushroom farm, which has pivoted from growing commercial mushrooms to conserving natural, wild mushrooms and creating health supplements from them.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
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      in US Politics

      Iowa caucuses 2024 live: Trump ramps up attacks on Haley and DeSantis as voters battle cold to pick Republican candidate

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      It’s a bracing day in Iowa as the caucus gatherings approach later on Monday, and there are other items of US politics news occurring too, all brought to you as they happen. We are here, live, to bring you all the events.Here’s where things stand:
      Economy, border, foreign policy are key issues as Iowans head to caucus, with Republican voters in the Hawkeye state saying these themes are top of mind as they prepare to caucus tonight in the US’s first nominating contest.
      Donald Trump has stepped up his attacks on Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis on the morning of the day Iowans go to vote on their Republican candidate.
      The Pentagon said the US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, has been released from hospital today. Austin, 70, had been hospitalized since 1 January due to complications after prostate cancer treatment, but there was uproar because he didn’t tell the White House (or many others) about it.
      Iowa Republicans will brave brutally cold temperatures on Monday evening to participate in the state’s presidential caucuses, as Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner in the race for his party’s nomination. The final results will depend on turnout, which could be acutely impacted by the weather.
      Iowans have been told to “limit outdoor exposure” as much as possible with forecasters saying the wind chill temperature could go down to as low as -35F on Monday evening in the “dangerous cold”.
      The 2024 US presidential election begins in earnest in Iowa today. The final Des Moines Register/NBC News poll before Monday night’s caucuses found former president, Donald Trump, maintaining a formidable lead over his opponents, supported by 48% of likely caucus-goers. After trailing the two-term Florida governor, Ron DeSantis for months, the latest poll showed Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, in second place in Iowa, winning the support of 20% of likely Republican caucus-goers, compared to DeSantis’s 16%, with Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.
      Donald Trump Jr and girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle are running very late for a campaign stop at a bar in Ankeny, Iowa. “Do you think we’ll still make it to the caucus?” one anxious supporter asked the Guardian.Patiently hanging on is Blake Marnell, 59, who works in sales and lives in San Diego, California. He is one of the peculiar characters thrown up by the Trump era: he is wearing his trademark brick-patterned suit, a symbol of his support for Trump’s border wall, along with a “Maga” cap signed by Trump.He says the suit was marketed in Britain for stag parties and he bought it off the internet. “These are suits made for bachelor parties in London where the lads all want to go out for a night drinking but the dress code at the club says you must wear suits, so there’s this industry of semi-disposable suits with garish patterns.”Marnell estimates he has been to between 35 and 40 Trump rallies and confidently predicts the former president will win the Iowa caucuses. “I believe President Trump will win. I think everybody knows that so the real question is by how much? If you go by polling, I think that he will be over 50%.”The “Brick Man” is also looking forward to seeing the president’s eldest son in action soon. “He’s an excellent speaker for President Trump, for his father, because one thing that a lot of President Trump’s surrogates don’t have but Donald Trump Jr does have is they share the same sense of humour: at times irreverent, at times offensive to some people, at times perhaps people might think it’s a little bit too much, but if you’re a fan of President Trump and his humour, you’re also going to be a fan of Don Jr.“The politician that supports President Trump won’t have the freedom or the latitude to say things because they have to worry about their constituency back home and how that impacts their office. Donald Trump Jr? No filters. He can say what he wants to say. He can say what he’s feeling and people understand that and they gravitate towards him.”Vice-President Kamala Harris said “freedom is under profound threat” in a speech in South Carolina to commemorate Martin Luther King Jr Day.The vice-president spoke as Republicans campaigned around Iowa in the final push to sway voters before the caucus began this evening. Democrats aren’t holding an Iowa caucus this year, after shifting their calendar to make South Carolina the first official primary because Iowa and New Hampshire’s voters don’t represent the diversity of the party. Republicans set their Iowa caucus on MLK day to maintain its status as the first election contest, but the fact that it was a federal holiday didn’t seem to enter into the decision.Harris cited MLK’s iconic “Letter from Birmingham Jail”, where the civil rights leader wrote that “the goal of America is freedom”.“And so, as we gather to honor his legacy, I pose a question I believe Dr. King would today ask: In 2024, where exactly is America in our fight for freedom?…As Vice President of the United States, I’d say: At this moment, in America, freedom is under profound threat,” she said.Speaking at an NAACP event, Harris sought to make the case that supporting Democrats in this year’s elections would protect freedoms in the wake of attacks on reproductive rights, book bans and voting rights. She implored attendees to join the fight against these restrictions by voting blue in 2024.“This generation now has fewer rights than their mothers and grandmothers,” she said. “It is not hypothetical that from kindergarten to 12th grade, this generation has had to endure active shooter drills. Our children, who should be in a classroom fulfilling their God-given potential and exploring their wonder for the beauty of the world, instead have to worry that someone might burst through their classroom door with a gun. It is not hypothetical. When students go to vote, they often have to wait in line for hours because of laws that intentionally make it more difficult for them to cast a ballot.”Shortly after that, the Biden campaign’s press conference wrapped up.We’re now four hours away from the start of the Republican caucuses in Iowa’s 99 counties, and you can expect the Biden campaign will speak up again once their choice becomes clear.JB Pritzker was asked about Joe Biden’s persistent unpopularity.The president’s approval rating has been underwater for more than two-and-a-half years, and has lately lurked in the low 40% range. The factors behind this trend are myriad and include Biden’s advanced age as well as the hangover from the record inflation Americans experienced in 2022, but the trend has been enough to make many Democrats nervous about his bid to win another four years in the White House.Pritzker argued that polls don’t yet reflect the reality of the presidential race, since the Republican nominee hasn’t yet been decided.“Until we see that we won’t know really what the numbers are,” the governor said (though many pollsters have surveyed how the president would perform against various Republicans, including Donald Trump, who some polls have found voters prefer.)
      But I can tell you this, that it’s Joe Biden that’s delivered for the American public, it’s Joe Biden that’s got an awful lot to brag about, and I think the dangers that are posed by this Republican field will be well known to people once … one of them is chosen.
      Jeffrey Katzenberg, a movie mogul who is co-chairing the national advisory board for Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, is talking up the mammoth fundraising haul the president received in the final quarter of last year.“Last quarter, Team Biden Harris raised more than $97m and reported $117m of cash on hand,” Katzenberg said.
      It means team Biden-Harris is entering the election year with more cash on hand than any democratic candidate in history.
      He said the Biden campaign’s financial firepower now dwarfs his Republican rivals, no matter who that may be, and allows them to focus their efforts on winning the November general election. Katzenberg said:
      Republicans are spending money in a race for the Maga base without a single dime going towards the voters who will ultimately decide the general election. By the time they are finished with the primary and Donald Trump or whichever extremists is finally in a position where they can start trying to compete with us, it’s just going to be too late.
      The Minnesota senator Tina Smith laid into the Republican field, saying all the candidates had plans to cut off access to abortion.
      We know one thing for sure. Every one of these extremist candidates is attacking women’s freedom to make their own decisions about abortion. These extreme Republican candidates want a national ban on abortion, and that is what they will try to do if given the chance.
      The reality is that none of these candidates trust women to make their own decisions about abortion because they believe that they know and that is why we cannot trust them to be president.
      The Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, is up at the podium first, and saying that all Republican candidates competing in tonight’s caucus are ignoring the country’s needs and espousing extremist policies. Pritzker said:
      Here we stand on Martin Luther King Jr Day, and this field of candidates is espousing Adolf Hitler’s ideas, denying that … the civil war was about slavery, or demonizing and discounting the rights of large groups of Americans. All of these Republican candidates are singing the same, terrible song.
      In an apparent reference to Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and sole woman in the Republican race, and the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, who has been accused of wearing footwear that boosts his stature, Pritzker said:
      Tonight’s contest is simply a question of whether you like your Maga Trump agenda wrapped in the original packaging with high heels, or with lifts in their boots.
      While everyone will be watching who Iowa Republicans select as their nominee tonight, Joe Biden’s re-election campaign is in town to, in their words, “remind voters what’s at stake this November as Donald Trump and Maga Republicans launch an all-out assault on Americans’ freedoms”.They’ve got some Democratic heavy hitters speaking to the press this afternoon at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, including the Illinois governor JB Pritzker, the Minnesota senator Tina Smith and Jeffrey Katzenberg, co-chair of the Biden-Harris campaign’s national advisory board.I am in the room and will let you know what they have to say.Precinct captains in Iowa will try to persuade caucus voters tonight to pick their preferred candidate, a practice common to the Iowa caucuses but not typical of US elections otherwise.Candidates work to have volunteer caucus captains at all precinct voting sites, usually local schools or community gathering places. Those captains whip votes at the precinct, speechifying and debating with voters who are unsure who to vote for or could be swayed from one candidate to another.Outside the caucus process, it’s usually illegal to actively campaign at a polling site.This year, Trump’s precinct captains are donning white hats with “Trump Caucus Captain” written in gold lettering. The hats were given to 2,000 caucus captains and have become “the hottest item in Maga world”, Politico reported.The precinct captains, while their role is important on caucus day, are typically regular Iowa voters who volunteer to help their preferred candidate because they’re passionate about that person winning. They’re often seen as people who can influence their neighbors at the hyperlocal precinct sites.Sometimes, the New York Times writes in its feature about caucus captains, the captains can be more high-profile. “One of Ron DeSantis’s captains is a former co-chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, and one of Nikki Haley’s is a state senator,” the paper notes.Climate activists from the Sunrise Movement protested outside a diner near Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, where Nikki Haley was addressing supporters today. More