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      in US Politics

      ‘Perilous for democracy, good for profits’: is big business ready to love Trump again?

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      Chief executives of some of America’s largest companies will meet privately with Donald Trump later on Thursday, and many CEOs who were once critical of his unprecedented conduct appear increasingly open to the former president’s return to office, a Guardian analysis has found.The private audience with the former president will take place at the quarterly gathering of the Business Roundtable, a powerful Washington lobbying group that advocates for the interests of chief executives of big US firms. Joe Biden was also invited; his chief of staff will attend while the US president is abroad, a Business Roundtable spokesperson said.The meeting comes less than five months before the election and less than four years after CEOs raised the alarm about political polarization and threats to democracy when Trump refused to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election and incited an insurrection at the US Capitol.Back then, the Business Roundtable – whose members include Apple’s Tim Cook, General Motors’ Mary Barra and JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon – led a chorus of condemnation from corporate America. “The country deserves better,” the Business Roundtable said in a statement on 6 January 2021, calling on Trump and his administration “to put an end to the chaos and to facilitate the peaceful transition of power”.Today, with Biden and Trump tied in the polls, Trump can expect a far warmer reception from corporate bosses. “The reality is … we as CEOs and we as a Business Roundtable, we’re going to work with whoever is in the White House,” Chuck Robbins, the lobby group’s chair and the CEO of Cisco Systems, told Fortune in March.“The way we think about it is, if we have a Trump administration or if we have a Biden administration, regardless, there are going to be things we can align on in both,” Robbins said.While corporate America’s views appear to have changed, Trump’s have not. The former president still has not accepted the results of the 2020 election, nor has he committed to accepting the 2024 outcome. He maintains that the supporters who he urged to storm the Capitol “were there with love in their heart”.And Trump and his campaign have promised a range of divisive and anti-democratic initiatives if he is re-elected, from mass firings of non-partisan government officials to the weaponization of the US Department of Justice against his perceived enemies.Yet a second Trump term promises benefits for CEOs and their companies in a variety of policy areas, from lucrative tax breaks – Trump’s recent pledges include a “business class big tax cut” – to sweeping rollbacks of Biden-era efforts to promote market competition and strengthen worker power.“It has always been clear that the CEOs of the Fortune 500 are not what is going to preserve democracy, and that the CEOs of the Fortune 500 work for their investors who demand insatiable amounts of profit,” said Lindsay Owens of the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive advocacy group.“If they think that President Trump is perilous for democracy but good for profits, I think it has always been clear where they are going to land on this question.”‘A sad time for our country’A few days after the 2020 election, dozens of CEOs gathered on a hastily organized 7am Zoom call to discuss Trump’s refusal to accept that he had lost.The executives met “to share observations and talk about what possible roles they might play in encouraging a smooth transfer of power”, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale School of Management professor who has spent decades counseling chief executives, and who convened the post-election Zoom, later wrote.Attending the call were the heads of some of America’s largest corporations, including Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Blackstone, Comcast and Goldman Sachs.The next day, the Business Roundtable, which counted many of the attending CEOs as members, issued a high-profile statement congratulating Biden and Kamala Harris and urging “elected officials and Americans across the political spectrum to work in good faith to find common ground”.View image in fullscreenA similar pattern played out in the days surrounding the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol: CEOs and their companies quickly distanced themselves from Trump. Many pledged to stop making campaign contributions to Republican politicians who voted against certifying the election results. Executives were portrayed in the media as patriots who put their self-interest aside and their reputations at risk to speak out.“It’s just a sad time for our country,” Robbins, the Cisco boss, told the New York Times. “At a time where we have so many challenges, the partisanship is astounding.”“Our leaders must call for peace and unity now,” tweeted Marc Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce, on 6 January. “There is no room for violence in our democracy. May the one who brings peace bring peace to our country.”While the full list of attendees of the 2020 Zoom call has not been published, the Guardian contacted a dozen companies and trade groups whose current or previous CEOs or members were reported to have joined the call or expressed concerns about Trump’s commitment to the democratic process, such as Cisco and Salesforce.The Guardian sought comment from the Business Roundtable and the National Association of Manufacturers, another corporate lobbying group, which on January 6 called for Trump’s cabinet to consider removing him from office using the 25th amendment.One company declined to comment. Of the other firms and trade groups, none responded to inquiries about whether they remained concerned about Trump’s commitment to democracy, or whether they would speak out if Trump were to express an unwillingness to accept the results of the 2024 election if he loses.‘They’ve done the math’Corporate America’s relationship to Trump is complicated. “The narrative that the business community is hedging their bets and that CEOs are ‘softening towards Donald Trump’ is escalating and fast becoming a fact-free echo chamber of unsupported pronouncements,” Yale’s Sonnenfeld argued earlier this year.Few chief executives of large US companies are personally donating to Trump’s campaign, Sonnenfeld noted. “The money trail, or lack thereof, speaks to the frayed ties between Trump and the business world.”In an interview with the Guardian, Sonnenfeld pointed to a number of policy issues on which CEOs disagreed with the former president. Chief executives “are pro-immigration reform. They are not xenophobes. And … they are not protectionist. They believe in a globalized economy,” Sonnenfeld said.“They also believe in social harmony, either out of personal character, patriotic values or enlightened self-interest. They don’t want furious communities tearing apart the social fabric. They don’t want shareholders screaming at them. They don’t want employees sabotaging each other. They depend on social harmony to navigate their businesses.”“Today, there’s no support of any public CEO for Trump, even though … the polls are far more favorable to him than they were in the earlier two elections,” Sonnenfeld said.But experts and advocates noted that on a range of issues – among them, tax cuts, efforts to undermine collective bargaining and worker power, and regulatory rollbacks, especially environmental protections – CEOs have plenty of reasons to expect that a second Trump term could prove lucrative.“We actually don’t need to overanalyze it,” said Michael Linden, a former Biden administration official who is now a fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “At the end of the day, corporations and CEOs have always liked low taxes. They’ve always liked deregulation.“For all of Donald Trump’s heterodoxy on some issues, [on] those things” – taxes and regulations – “he is standard. He is indistinguishable from Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney or George W Bush or pick your standard Republican.”“I think they’ve done the math,” said Timi Iwayemi of the Revolving Door Project, which tracks corporate political influence. “They can say, ‘We’ve already seen Trump. We had Trump 1.0. Yeah, sure, it was bad, but it wasn’t the end of America. America is still here.’”‘The stakes are huge, and they are real’One of Trump’s few legislative achievements as president was a huge tax cut that permanently slashed the corporate tax rate by 40%.A recent report by the non-partisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (Itep) found that the law saved some of America’s biggest and most profitable companies $240bn in taxes between 2018 – the first full year it was in effect – and 2021.Walmart, for instance, paid an average effective tax rate of 31% between 2013 and 2016. After Trump signed his tax cuts into law, the company’s average rate fell to 17%, Itep found. The change saved the consumer goods giant $9bn between 2018 and 2021.Salesforce, meanwhile, paid only $175m in federal taxes over the first five years of the Trump tax cuts, according to previous Itep research. Salesforce brought home about $6bn in profit during the same period.“Obviously, the US government is a large customer of Salesforce, and depending on who’s in office, it creates a whole stir with a different part of our employee base,” Salesforce’s Benioff told Bloomberg in January. “So that’s just a reality. But the reality is that, hey, we are the same company regardless of when that election is going to occur and regardless of who that president will be.”Trump has promised to reduce the corporate tax rate even further if he wins a second term. But corporations are gearing up for an even bigger tax fight next year.Cuts to individual income and estate taxes, as well as business “pass-through” rates – changes that overwhelmingly benefited wealthy and white Americans – are set to expire next December.“Whether they just expire, whether they get replaced by something, whether they get extended, is a massive question, and it will be a question that Congress has to deal with and the president has to deal with one way or the other,” said Equitable Growth’s Linden. “And so the stakes are huge, and they are real.”For corporations, these stakes are even higher following their failure earlier this year to secure passage of a congressional tax deal that would have rolled back some of the taxes meant to pay for Trump’s 2017 tax law.Companies and their trade groups lobbied aggressively for these provisions, which could have saved them hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade, the Guardian previously reported.“I think they assume under Trump they will not only get an extension of the status quo, which is very beneficial to them, but they will also have another bite at the apple to get even more than they currently have,” said Owens of the Groundwork Collaborative.‘A huge turn-off to business leaders’In other policy areas, a second Trump administration would have more leeway to unilaterally pursue an agenda friendly to big business – and would enter office with a savvier understanding of how to achieve it.“In 2024 Trump will be a much more professional operation,” said the Revolving Door Project’s Iwayemi. “They have a much more clear and deep understanding of the executive branch. And they would have a team that would be fully equipped.”Last year, the rightwing Heritage Foundation published “Project 2025”, a policy-by-policy, agency-by-agency roadmap to “dismantle the administrative state”, as the organization’s president described it.Project 2025 includes a range of policy levers that would roll back efforts to promote economic competition and protect workers. Many of the recommendations align with positions that corporate interests have already taken.View image in fullscreenFor instance, Biden’s Securities and Exchange Commission recently approved new requirements for public companies to disclose some of the risks that climate change presents to their businesses.The final SEC rule was weaker than the agency’s original proposal, and even incorporated recommendations from the Business Roundtable and other trade groups not to require companies to track or report on the climate impacts of their supply chains.Nevertheless, immediately after the rule was finalized, Republican state attorneys general and the US Chamber of Commerce, another corporate lobbying group, sued the agency.“Everybody here [at the Business Roundtable] is committed to climate change, to controlling our carbon footprint,” Robbins told CNBC the day after the SEC finalized the climate disclosure rule. “But some of the requirements – first of all, we’re not sure it’s the SEC’s remit to do that. But secondly … it’s just an incredible amount of work that actually increases costs at a time when we’re talking about inflation …”Project 2025 goes even further, suggesting that Congress prohibit the SEC from requiring these types of disclosures in the first place.It also encourages repeal of other reporting rules that became law after the 2008 financial crisis, such as a requirement that public companies disclose the ratio of CEO compensation to median worker pay. The Business Roundtable spent years opposing federal efforts to require companies to disclose this measure of executive compensation.Another agency that has drawn borderline-obsessive corporate ire is the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which under Biden has taken a far more aggressive approach to challenging corporate power than any administration – Republican or Democratic – for decades.Earlier this year the FTC finalized a landmark ban on non-compete clauses. The ban, as the FTC chair, Lina Khan, described it, helps make sure workers “have the freedom to pursue a new job, start a new business or bring a new idea to market”.“Something that I think Americans have been hungry for, for a long time” is for government “in a muscular way [to] protect them not just as consumers but also as workers and small businesses from serious abuse from big corporations”, said Elizabeth Wilkins, a former White House official who recently stepped down as the FTC’s chief of staff.“This is stuff that people want, but … it’s also stuff that big corporations have been getting away with for a long time,” said Wilkins, now a fellow at the anti-monopoly American Economic Liberties Project. “I am sure that they aren’t happy about it.”The day after the FTC finalized the ban on non-competes, the Business Roundtable filed a lawsuit to stop what it called “this unwarranted regulatory overreach”.“The Federal Trade Commission is a huge turn-off to business leaders,” said Yale’s Sonnenfeld.“Corporations recognize that there’s an alphabet soup of government agencies with the power to properly enforce longstanding laws and, when necessary, crack down [on] corporate exploitation,” said Iwayemi.They “recognize that if you pull any acronym out of the pot – take the SEC or the FTC or whichever – they have the potential to sell out public interest. And that is just much more likely under the Trump administration.”‘They are not the central heroes of the economic story’Despite their complaints about the Biden agenda, the fact remains that US corporations have thrived during Biden’s time in office, routinely reporting record profits and awarding sky-high CEO pay.In 2023, the median head of an S&P 500 company took home more than $16m, an increase of nearly 13% from the previous year, according to a recent AP and Equilar analysis. Workers’ wages grew only 4%, the report found.Meanwhile, corporations are salivating over hundreds of billions of dollars in new tax incentives created by Biden-era legislation to tackle climate change and spur domestic investment in infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing.And far from freezing out corporate America – as some progressives had hoped – the Biden White House has aggressively solicited executives’ input. Wilkins described the administration conducting “an enormous amount of outreach to the corporate community”.“They engage, for sure,” Robbins told CNBC in March. “There’s open communication – there always is. So that’s not the issue.”Still, bosses appear increasingly fed up with Biden’s rhetoric.While the Biden administration has “been great for business” and most CEOs are not actively supporting Trump’s re-election bid, that “doesn’t mean that they’re pro-Biden,” Sonnenfeld said.“There are plenty of issues that they have [with Biden] on certain areas. They don’t like being vilified on the tax front, even though maybe some should pay some higher taxes. They smart on setting up a class warfare.”The president “puts workers at the center of the economic universe: unions and labor power and competition and higher taxes on the rich”, said Linden. Corporations “really get offended when people suggest that they are not the central heroes of the economic story. They really don’t like that.”Trump might praise wealthy CEOs, or at least refrain from saying they should pay higher taxes or suffer new consumer protections.View image in fullscreenYet one of the former president’s defining characteristics remains his fanatical pursuit of grudges against perceived enemies and those who he believes have slighted him.This track record suggests that CEOs’ silence today – perhaps a result of Trump’s coin-flip odds of ending up back in the White House – may not guarantee their protection from his vindictiveness tomorrow.That, however, is a gamble that many executives appear willing to make.For CEOs: “There may be limited downside to making nice noises about Trump,” suggested Rosanna Weaver, a consultant for the shareholder advocacy group As You Sow. “If Trump is elected you have some credit with him. If Biden is elected, he is unlikely to hold the same kind of vindictive grudge that Trump would.” More

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      in US Politics

      Hunter Biden conviction could boost father against Trump, experts suggest

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      Hunter Biden’s conviction on gun-ownership charges may have handed his father, Joe, a boost in the forthcoming presidential election, analysts say, because it undermines the image of a president weaponising the US justice system to pursue Donald Trump.Trump, the former president and presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has pushed that line relentlessly to explain his conviction last month on charges related to the concealment of hush-money payments to a porn star to help him win the 2016 election.He has made the claim even though his prosecution was brought in a New York state court that is independent of the Department of Justice, which is overseeing 54 other criminal charges against him that have so far not come to trial.Hunter Biden, by contrast, was prosecuted and convicted under the authority of the justice department, which is part of his father’s administration – an inconvenient fact that weakens Republican claims that it has been turned into a political weapon in the president’s hands.The result, some observers say, is that Hunter’s conviction may help the president in a close race, even though the personal cost of his son’s troubles is heavy.That suspicion was further fuelled by a low-key reaction from Republicans that attempted to switch the focus to other supposed crimes they say, but have never proved, that father and son have committed.“It’s a marginal political gain, that’s what I’m feeling,” said John Zogby, a veteran pollster. “I don’t see it hurting him in any way, and especially when he neutralised the issue when he said he was not going to extend the pardon, which is very painful for him.“It pulls the rug out from under that Republican argument that the justice system is rigged against Republicans to get Trump … a Biden did not get a pass.”Zogby said the verdict – and Biden’s acceptance of it – could revive an image that was electorally helpful in 2020 of “Uncle Joe”, a man of empathy who had known suffering and personal tragedy, through the deaths of his eldest son, Beau, from cancer in 2015, and his first wife and baby daughter in a car accident in 1972.“It could put some folks who have been wavering … on the track towards seeing that more sympathetic fellow, a father who is experiencing pain again,” he said. “You know, enough to give them another point or two. I don’t think it moves mountains, but it may not have to [in a close race].”Larry Jacobs, a professor of politics at the University of Minnesota, said the verdict, while a “personal disaster” for Biden, could boomerang on the Republicans and translate into Democratic gain.“The tragic case of Hunter Biden is painful for Joe and Jill Biden [the first lady], but it is a win for the Democratic party and the Biden campaign,” he said. “It puts a lie to the Republican claims that the justice system is being manipulated by [and for] the benefit of Democrats.“It’s harder for the Republicans to say with a straight face and to audiences not already in their capture that the legal system is captured by the Democratic party.”View image in fullscreenBiden is known to be deeply concerned by the troubles of Hunter, who was found guilty by a jury in Delaware on Tuesday of lying about his drug use and addiction when buying a gun in 2018. Close aides have voiced worries about the emotional strain the matter is putting on the 81-year-old president in the midst of a close election race.“I don’t think voters are going to hold Biden accountable for his son’s addiction or his son’s misbehaviour. But I think the real question is the toll it takes on him and his family,” David Axelrod, a senior Democratic operative and former adviser to President Barack Obama told the Washington Post.“To a guy who’s already experienced great loss and tragedy, this is another heavy brick on the load. And it’s going to take enormous strength to carry that load, given all the other bricks that are on there of the presidency and being a candidate.”Despite the fact that his son now faces a possible jail sentence – and will stand trial again on unrelated tax-evasion charges in September – Biden has said he will not use his presidential powers to pardon him. That message was somewhat clouded on Wednesday when the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, on board Air Force One en route to the G7 summit in Italy, was reported as refusing to rule out a commutation of whatever sentence Hunter receives.Hunter’s conviction followed legal manoeuvring in which some observers said he had received harsher treatment because he is the president’s son. A plea bargain worked out last year that would have seen him plead guilty to the tax charges while avoiding prosecution on the gun charge was dropped following criticism from the judge in the latter case, Maryellen Noreika, who was appointed to the bench by Trump.Republicans, who have pursued Hunter Biden for years in an unsuccessful effort to prove his father profited financially from his business dealings in Ukraine, had denounced it as a sweetheart deal.The president, who travelled on Wednesday to Italy for the G7 summit, said that he would respect whatever outcome the legal process reached – a jarring contrast to Trump’s repeated assaults on the judicial system as “rigged”.“So many families who have had loved ones battle addiction understand the feeling of pride seeing someone you love come out the other side and be so strong and resilient in recovery,” Biden said.“I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal. Jill and I will always be there for Hunter and the rest of our family with our love and support. Nothing will ever change that.” More

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      in US Politics

      Trump was hoping for a slam dunk. But Hunter Biden’s trial has only highlighted his father Joe’s dignity | Emma Brockes

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      If you didn’t know better, you might think the jury that found Hunter Biden guilty this week knew precisely what they were doing. The evidence against the president’s son – that he lied about his drug use on a firearms form six years ago – was overwhelming, but so too was the impression of a trivial, overegged charge. But, by finding him guilty, the jury in this area of solid Democratic support have potentially done more injury to his father’s political rival than if they had found him not guilty on all counts.For those of us watching, the entire spectacle has at times been an uncomfortable exercise in flushing out biases. Like the Trump children, Hunter Biden has the demoralised air of a scion struggling to escape his father’s shadow, albeit in a different style. If the Trump boys are chinless dimwits, Hunter has about him the seedy air of a second- or third-tier Hollywood actor, clamped behind aviators and accompanied seemingly everywhere by his much younger wife.In September, the 54-year-old will face nine federal tax charges, and the business of the recovered laptop rumbles on (Biden’s laptop, which he accidentally left at a repair shop and the contents of which ended up in the hands of the New York Post, is still the subject of dispute; the Post’s claim that the machine contained evidence of incriminating emails was dismissed by liberals at the time as part of a Russian disinformation campaign – a claim that has never been substantiated). And yet, when he was found guilty this week, I found myself thinking: poor Hunter, what a ridiculous verdict.As an exercise then, I went back over the coverage and tried to read it as if he were one of Trump’s sons. The charges against Hunter Biden were widely regarded as trivial. Still, a lie is a lie and as Biden confessed in his memoir, while addicted to crack cocaine he was an inveterate liar.After the verdict, the president wrote that he was proud to see his son “so strong and resilient in recovery” – a pathetic diversion, surely, from the trouble at hand. Hunter Biden, meanwhile, remarked that “recovery is possible by the grace of God, and I am blessed to experience that gift one day at a time” – a clear appeal not only to give him a free pass, but to find him inspiring because he’s an addict. This is a man, remember, who while dating his own late brother’s widow, got her on crack cocaine, too. There’s addiction, and then there’s being an arsehole.The odd thing about the business of trashing Hunter Biden this week is that Republicans have largely avoided it. In a plan they must have arrived at through strategic consensus, several leading Republicans spoke after the guilty verdict with degrees of sympathy for the president’s son. Senator Lindsey Graham, of all people – a man who fought for Brett Kavanaugh to be confirmed to the supreme court and has sucked up to Trump relentlessly – said: “I don’t think the average American would have been charged with the gun thing. I don’t see any good coming from that.”Matt Gaetz, the Republican congressman from Florida, tweeted: “The Hunter Biden gun conviction is kinda dumb tbh.” And other Republicans twisted themselves inside out to applaud the verdict while maintaining their insistence that the justice system under President Biden is rigged.This is the problem they face in the wake of a verdict that, after only three hours of deliberation, came in even quicker than Trump’s 34 guilty counts last month: exactly how to sustain the narrative that US justice is untrustworthy. If Trump’s efforts to get the phrase “Biden crime family” off the ground haven’t flown the way “crooked Hillary” or “lyin’ Ted” did, it is partly because it doesn’t scan, partly because Hunter seems so slight and pathetic a figure, and partly because “Biden” doesn’t have the ring of a dynastic mafia name about it.My own efforts to see past my own biases, meanwhile, foundered when the president, who had earlier stated that if his son were found guilty he wouldn’t pardon him, doubled down on Tuesday with the statement that he would “continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal”.Gets me every time, Joe Biden’s loving but strong-boundaried support of his son. Hunter Biden has, in some ways, had a very hard life, losing his mother and infant sister in a horrific car accident in childhood, and his brother to a brain tumour in 2015. But when the president stands firmly behind him, urging him on, one understands he is the beneficiary of something Trump’s kids have never had, and that should perhaps increase our sympathy for them: a decent, loving parent.
      Emma Brockes is a Guardian columnist
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      in US Politics

      Millions of US voters lack access to documents to prove citizenship

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      Nearly one in 10 eligible voters lack easy access to documents to prove their citizenship, according to a new survey, underscoring how Republican efforts to purportedly prevent non-citizens from voting could disenfranchise millions.If asked to quickly locate a passport, birth certificate or naturalization papers to produce proof of citizenship tomorrow, more than 21 million Americans – about 9% of eligible voters – would not be able to, according to the survey, conducted by the Brennan Center for Justice, VoteRiders, Public Wise, and the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE) at the University of Maryland. Nearly 4 million American citizens – 2% in total – lack access to any form of proof in citizenship.The survey comes as Donald Trump and his allies have seized on fears about immigration to make the threat of non-citizen voting a major talking point ahead of November. Republicans have exaggerated the threat of non-citizen voting – which is already illegal and rare – and have pushed for federal legislation that would require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections.“We all know – intuitively – that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable,” Mike Johnson, the US House speaker, said last month.Two states that have already tried measures to require documentary proof of citizenship, Kansas and Arizona, offer case studies in how such a restriction can disenfranchise voters. In Kansas, 30,000 people had their voter registration held up between 2013 and 2016 because of the law. In Arizona, a proof-of-citizenship requirement for state elections has negatively affected tribal voters and college students.Researchers also found racial disparities in who has access to citizenship documents. About 3% of voters of color do not have access to proof-of-citizenship documents, compared with 1% of white Americans. Americans of color were also more likely to not have easy access to the documents compared with their white counterparts.“Our estimates are probably conservative measures of impact,” the researchers wrote in a blogpost announcing their findings. “While it’s true that most Americans can access these documents, most of us don’t walk around town carrying our passport or birth certificate. If those documents were required for voter registration, most would not have them readily available to take advantage of opportunities they encounter at schools, churches or other community spaces where registration drives register many Americans to vote.”About 4% of independents, 2% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans lacked easy access to proof-of-citizenship documents, the survey found.In addition to citizenship, the survey also found that about 21 million Americans of voting age do not have a non-expired driver’s license, with non-white voters less likely to have one.About 30% of Black Americans between 18 and 29 did not have a driver’s license and 47% did not have one with a current name or address. About 5% of white Americans in the same age group did not have a driver’s license, and 42% did not have one with a current name or address.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Millions of eligible voters lack a current form of photo ID – and it’s not easy to get one,” said Lauren Kunis, the executive director of VoteRiders, which helps people get ID. “Getting an ID can mean needing to track down underlying proof-of-citizenship documents like a birth certificate, navigating bureaucracy and paperwork, or spending hours at an ID-issuing office that is hard to reach. For these reasons and many more, voter ID laws make it more complicated, costly and confusing to cast a ballot in America today.”The survey is consistent with a Brennan Center survey nearly two decades ago that found 7% of Americans do not have easy access to proof-of-citizenship documents.“The current protections against non-citizen voting are effective: ballots cast by non-citizens are vanishingly rare,” the researchers wrote. “Requiring proof of citizenship would solve nothing, but it would create major barriers to registration for eligible voters, especially those who already face disproportionate barriers to participation in our democracy. We should be making it easier, not harder, for these citizens to participate.” More

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      in US Politics

      Biden generally favored abroad aside from Israel-Gaza war handling, poll finds

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      A new Pew Research survey has found that Joe Biden’s global perception is generally favorable – but most abroad disapprove of how the US president has handled Israel’s war in Gaza.According to survey results released on Tuesday, a median of 43% across 34 countries have confidence in Biden to “do the right thing” regarding world affairs. However, a median of 57% across 34 countries disapprove of Biden’s approach to the war in the Middle East, where, according to estimates, Israeli forces have killed more than 37,000 Palestinians in Gaza in response to the 7 October attack by Hamas that killed 1,200 Israelis and took hostages.Majorities in 10 countries have confidence in Biden. The countries with his largest shares of popularity are in the Philippines, where 77% of the population has indicated confidence towards him; Kenya, at 75%; and Poland, at 70%.Biden is least favorable in Tunisia, where 89% have indicated zero confidence towards him, as well as in Turkey – where that figure is 87%.Across 10 European countries surveyed, the majorities in six of those nations do not have confidence in Biden, including 56% in France and 72% in Hungary.By contrast, most in Canada and across Europe do not have confidence in Donald Trump, Biden’s presidential predecessor and the presumptive nominee to challenge him in November’s election.According to the survey, more than eight in 10 hold this view in France, Germany and Sweden. Trump – who was convicted of 34 felonies in late May in connection with a plot to cover up hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels – also scored poorly in Latin America, where at least six in 10 in every country surveyed have no confidence in him to do the right thing in global affairs, including 86% in Mexico.Speaking about the findings on Tuesday, Pew’s director of global attitudes research, Richard Wike, said: “As the US presidential election approaches, what we see in our international surveys is that there is significantly more confidence in president Biden than in former president Trump … In part, it’s due to personal characteristics – for example, in our polls, people have been much more likely to say Biden is well-qualified to be president than to say this about Trump. In contrast, they have been more likely to describe Trump as dangerous.”Wike added: “Biden also gets higher ratings than Trump because people tend to like his policies better. In particular, they have generally seen him as being more of a multilateralist and as working more closely with other countries to solve international challenges.”Despite Biden’s higher popularity compared with Trump, the president’s global ratings have declined since last year in 14 of 21 countries where trends are available, the survey revealed.Those countries include Australia, Israel, Japan, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the UK.Opinions in 34 countries polled surrounding Biden’s handling of major international issues are divided, with the exception of the Israel-Gaza war. Climate change and global economic problems are two areas of Biden’s international policies in which his approval and disapproval ratings are nearly evenly divided. For each area, 44% indicated their disapproval while 43% indicated their approval.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Israel-Gaza war is where those surveyed were most divided with respect to Biden. In addition to a median of 57% indicating their disapproval of the Gaza war, six in 10 Israelis disapproved of how Biden had handled the conflict, including 54% of Jewish Israelis and 86% of Arab Israelis.Among the Muslim countries surveyed, large majorities in Tunisia, Turkey and Malaysia have significant disapproval towards Biden’s handling of the war. In Tunisia, 93% indicated disapproval. Meanwhile, in Turkey and Malaysia, 85% and 84% indicated disapproval, respectively.The survey also found that adults under 35 years old in Australia, Canada and some European countries are less likely than those ages 50 and older to approve of Biden’s handling of the war.In France and the UK, 18% and 19% of younger adults, respectively, are roughly half as likely as older adults – at 40% and 41%, respectively – to rate Biden positively on his response to the Gaza war.Moreover, in Japan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Thailand, younger adults are more likely than older ones to approve of Biden’s handling of the war. More

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      in US Politics

      Deepfakes are here and can be dangerous, but ignore the alarmists – they won’t harm our elections | Ciaran Martin

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      Sixteen days before the Brexit referendum, and only two days before the deadline to apply to cast a ballot, the IT system for voter registrations collapsed. The remain and leave campaigns were forced to agree a 48-hour registration extension. Around the same time, evidence was beginning to emerge of a major Russian “hack-and-leak” operation targeting the US presidential election. Inevitably, questions arose as to whether the Russians had successfully disrupted the Brexit vote.The truth was more embarrassingly simple. A comprehensive technical investigation, supported by the National Cyber Security Centre – which I headed at the time – set out in detail what had happened. A TV debate on Brexit had generated unexpected interest. Applications spiked to double those projected. The website couldn’t cope and crashed. There was no sign of any hostile activity.But this conclusive evidence did not stop a parliamentary committee, a year later, saying that it did “not rule out the possibility that there was foreign interference” in the incident. No evidence was provided for this remarkable assertion. What actually happened was a serious failure of state infrastructure, but it was not a hostile act.This story matters because it has become too easy – even fashionable – to cast the integrity of elections into doubt. “Russia caused Brexit” is nothing more than a trope that provides easy comfort to the losing side. There was, and is, no evidence of any successful cyber operations or other digital interference in the UK’s 2016 vote.But Brexit is far from the only example of such electoral alarmism. In its famous report on Russia in 2020, the Intelligence and Security Committee correctly said that the first detected attempt by Russia to interfere in British politics occurred in the context of the Scottish referendum campaign in 2014.However, the committee did not add that the quality of such efforts was risible, and the impact of them was zero. Russia has been waging such campaigns against the UK and other western democracies for years. Thankfully, though, it hasn’t been very good at it. At least so far.Over the course of the past decade, there are only two instances where digital interference can credibly be seen to have severely affected a democratic election anywhere in the world. The US in 2016 is undoubtedly one. The other is Slovakia last year, when an audio deepfake seemed to have an impact on the polls late on.The incident in Slovakia fuelled part of a new wave of hysteria about electoral integrity. Now the panic is all about deepfakes. But we risk making exactly the same mistake with deepfakes as we did with cyber-attacks on elections: confusing activity and intent with impact, and what might be technically possible with what is realistically achievable.So far, it has proved remarkably hard to fool huge swathes of voters with deepfakes. Many of them, including much of China’s information operations, are poor in quality. Even some of the better ones – like a recent Russian fake of Ukrainian TV purporting to show Kyiv admitting it was behind the Moscow terror attacks – look impressive, but are so wholly implausible in substance they are not believed by anyone. Moreover, a co-ordinated response by a country to a deepfake can blunt its impact: think of the impressive British response to the attempt to smear Sadiq Khan last November, when the government security minister lined up behind the Labour mayor of London in exhorting the British media and public to pay no attention to a deepfake audio being circulated.This was in marked contrast to events in Slovakia, where gaps in Meta’s removal policy, and the country’s electoral reporting restrictions, made it much harder to circulate the message that the controversial audio was fake. If a deepfake does cut through in next month’s British election, what matters is how swiftly and comprehensively it is debunked.None of this is to be complacent about the reality that hostile states are trying to interfere in British politics. They are. And with fast-developing tech and techniques, the threat picture can change. “Micro” operations, such as a localised attempt to use AI to persuade voters in New Hampshire to stay at home during the primaries, are one such area of concern. In the course of the UK campaign, one of my main worries would be about targeted local disinformation and deepfake campaigns in individual contests. It is important that the government focuses resources and capabilities on blunting these operations.But saying that hostile states are succeeding in interfering in our elections, or that they are likely to, without providing any tangible evidence is not a neutral act. In fact, it’s really dangerous. If enough supposedly credible voices loudly cast aspersions on the integrity of elections, at least some voters will start to believe them. And if that happens, we will have done the adversaries’ job for them.There is a final reason why we should be cautious about the “something-must-be-done” tendency where the risk of electoral interference is concerned. State intervention in these matters is not some cost-free, blindingly obvious solution that the government is too complacent to use. If false information is so great a problem that it requires government action, that requires, in effect, creating an arbiter of truth. To which arm of the state would we wish to assign this task?
      Ciaran Martin is a professor at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, and a former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre More

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      in US Politics

      She was in Trump’s Maga ‘cult’ – now she’s fighting far-right extremism

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      While dozens of her neighbors piled into buses bound from Michigan for the US Capitol on 6 January, 2021, Penny Swan, a local Republican party activist and an outspoken Trump supporter, stayed home. But not for lack of enthusiasm: Swan wanted to join the throngs fighting to stop the certification of the 2020 election, but has a heart condition and worried about her ability to keep up.Instead, she watched social media in awe, as her friends and neighbors surged toward the Capitol.That was then.Since 2021, Swan, a medical equipment manager, has distanced herself from the rightwing group that organized the 6 January buses from her small, ruby-red town of Hillsdale, Michigan. Swan’s formerly close friends in the movement have become political rivals. And come November, she won’t vote for Trump.In an age of deepening political polarization, Swan’s story, of going deep into the Maga movement and defecting, is a rare one.According to a 2022 Pew study, “partisan antipathy” – deep dislike among members of a political party for the opposing group – has deepened in the US in the last decade. Democrats and Republicans are more likely today than 10 years ago to characterize each other as “unintelligent” and “close minded”. And Republicans who identify strongly with their party tend to prefer Trump overwhelmingly, as evidenced in the Republican primaries, which the former president swept.As the operator of a popular local politics page online and a longtime political activist, Swan has not only evolved as a voter. She has also documented, and at times participated in the unravelling of her county’s conservative movement – which, like the state Republican party, has gone to war with itself over far-right politics.View image in fullscreenA decade before 2,000 of Trump’s most diehard supporters stormed the Capitol, Swan, a lifelong Republican and Hillsdale resident, began documenting local government meetings. Some meetings were livestreamed, but not all – including meetings of the county commissioners.“I thought people needed to see the entire truth,” said Swan. “You could read something in the newspaper and that had a narrative, you could hear something on the radio, and that had a narrative, but it didn’t have the whole story. So I thought people should actually be able to see the entire process.”For years, Swan recorded and uploaded every meeting of local government she could attend on to her Facebook page, a repository of citizen journalism and pissed-off commentary called Penny Swan Political Activist Facts Matter. With more than 1,400 followers – in a town of about 8,000 – Swan’s page has become an important clearinghouse for political updates and a hub for heated debate, offering a window into the fraught world of Michigan conservative politics.In the wake of the 2020 election, the Republican party of Michigan – a swing state that flipped from Trump to Joe Biden in 2020 – saw a widening rift between the party’s establishment and its fired-up Maga base. The split spilled into the county Republican party chapters, with local party organizations devolving into factions. In Hillsdale, a group of Republican activists aligned with the Trump wing of the party created an informal caucus within the party chapter.The Hillsdale group – since dubbed the America First Republicans – aimed to change the local party “from neo-conservatism, your old establishment, George Bush-type crowd, to more of a modern day conservative group”, said Jon Smith, who helped form the caucus in late 2019. The idea, Smith said, was to turn the local GOP from what he viewed as a sleepy and bureaucratic organization into a mobilized one.View image in fullscreenSwan was excited when Smith approached her about a new, more active formation in the local party. It sounded like the perfect opportunity to ramp up her political work.“Those guys were like, ‘Oh, we’re going to take over the party, and we’re going to do more good stuff,’” said Swan. “And I’m like, ‘that sounds good. I’m coming because I want to do something and be proactive.’”And they did: in 2020, Daren Wiseley, an ally of the rightwing faction, was elected chairman of the Republican party of Hillsdale county. Swan continued to work with the party, taking on the role of deputy treasurer and joining the organization’s executive committee. The group was close-knit. They confided in each other about personal matters and hung out after meetings. Swan even spent holidays with Smith’s family.It’s not clear exactly when the relationship began to sour. By Smith’s account, Swan just wasn’t up for the job of deputy treasurer.“When our treasurer quit, [Swan] was the deputy treasurer and we were behind on filing reports,” said Smith. “That kind of pressure, Penny couldn’t handle it.”Swan has a different story. She says she raised concerns about the organization’s handling of finances, which the executives were unable, or unwilling, to address. In a 7 April 2022 email to former chairman Wiseley, Swan resigned.“It is with deep regret that I feel the need to step down as deputy treasurer,” wrote Swan. “I have spoken with you, Vice-Chairman Lashaway and also Secretary Smith about my concerns often over the past six months, to no avail.”Four months later, as the county party prepared for their annual convention, Swan’s old friends purged dozens of members who they viewed as insufficiently loyal to the Maga right. During the convention, armed security guards blocked those delegates, who had been formally “disavowed”, from entering. The standoff in the convention parking lot laid bare the divisions that had been festering in the organization for months and set the stage for a protracted legal battle over the rightful leaders of the Hillsdale county GOP. A court in 2022 found the America First faction could not rightfully claim to represent the county party, a victory for Swan’s faction.To her former friends in the Hillsdale Republican party, Swan is a turncoat – her defection, a betrayal.To others in the community, Swan is a rare ally with an inside view of the far right.“She was kind of brainwashed,” said Gail McClanahan, a Hillsdale county resident who led a successful recall campaign to unseat Stephanie Scott, an election-denying township clerk 2023. “Not now. Penny, she’s not scared,” said McClanahan. “She’s keeping us informed of the truth here in Hillsdale.”Swan’s split from the America First group, she says, was like leaving a “cult”. After she left and began criticizing the group online, her relationships with former friends in the group grew bitter. Swan says she even faced harassment and threats over her new political alignment.View image in fullscreenIn a letter sent to a close contact of Swan’s, someone who identified himself as “Lance” alleged that Swan had “spread hate, lies and misfortune”, and warned that “this is my only and last chance to save her from herself […] I cannot be held responsible for doing what needs to be done in defending my friends who do not deserve what she is doing to them”. Swan filed a police report and installed cameras in her apartment.In April 2022, Swan launched a campaign for an open seat on the city council, running on a pro-transparency platform. The race turned nasty.When a bitter fight broke out over the placement of children’s books with LGBTQ+ themes in the local library, Swan defended the librarian and the books. A meme circulated online, shared by her former friends, calling Swan a pedophile.In an email to the Guardian, Jessica Spangler, a former Hillsdale librarian, said the protracted controversy sparked “a considerable decline in my health, resulting in serious and lasting issues due to the undue stress endured during my tenure”.Joshua Paladino, a rightwing graduate student at Hillsdale College who called for the removal of books from the library, won the open seat.Swan suffered a third heart attack in December 2022, prompting her to back off from political work. She no longer films at every city council meeting, and says she is trying to resist the pull of vitriolic online arguments.But her goal is the same: to resist the current of rightwing extremism that has come to define politics in her town and county.She has found some allies in the Republican party, like Scott Sessions, a member of the Hillsdale county GOP and the former mayor of Hillsdale.“To me, it’s not really conservative,” Sessions said about the America First group. “It’s turned radical.”With elections coming up on 6 August for numerous county seats, Swan is helping out on a few campaigns that she sees as critical to fending off the far-right push. Two stand out in particular: an election for county sheriff, pitting the incumbent Republican against Jon Rutan, a self-proclaimed “constitutional sheriff”, and a race for county clerk, between Abe Dane, the current director of elections, and Stephanie Scott, who was recalled from a former post for embracing election conspiracy theories.The looming elections have Swan back on the politics beat.“When I get up at five o’clock in the morning, I’m reading and writing until I go to work,” said Swan. “For the most part, as soon as I get home at 2.30 or 3, I’m working on it till I go to bed.” More

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      Revealed: Trump ally Kari Lake gave speech in front of Confederate flag

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      The Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake addressed supporters with a Confederate flag displayed behind her during a campaign event at a Trump merchandise store in Arizona last week, where she repeated false claims about election fraud.In footage obtained by the Guardian, Lake is seen speaking into a microphone, surrounded by a group of supporters, at the Trumped Store in Show Low, Arizona. Behind her, a Confederate battle flag and a yellow “Don’t Tread On Me” flag are affixed to the wall. Both flags are available for purchase on the website of Trumped Store, which sells an array of merchandise with the former president’s name and likeness.Writing on X last week, Lake described the event as a “magical day”.“So many incredible patriots in Heber-Overgaard, Show Low and the White Mountains,” she said. “America is stepping up. Arizona is stepping forward. It’s time to save this great Republic. I’m honored to be in this fight with all of these amazing patriots.”The Confederate flag has long been condemned as a symbol of racism and slavery, and a number of institutions have sought to distance themselves from it in recent years. In 2020, the Mississippi governor, Tate Reeves, a Republican, signed a law to remove the Confederate battle emblem from the state flag, making Mississippi the last state to do so.Reached for comment about the video, a spokesperson for Kari Lake told the Guardian: “The Kari Lake campaign does not respond to British propaganda outlets. We stopped doing that in 1776.”In the video, Lake is heard repeating her baseless accusations of widespread election fraud in the 2022 gubernatorial race, which she lost to the Democrat Katie Hobbs. When a supporter told Lake that she actually won the 2022 election, she replied: “Of course we did. They stole our government.”In the months after the 2022 election, courts repeatedly dismissed Lake’s legal claims challenging the results of the gubernatorial race, and her lawyers were sanctioned for making “false factual statements”. In April, the US supreme court dismissed Lake’s lawsuit challenging Arizona’s use of electronic voting machines. At the Trumped Store event, Lake indicated she planned to reopen her appeal in the voting machines case, which she confirmed on Friday.“We’re trying to get rid of these damn machines that are corrupt,” Lake told supporters last week.Lake went on to repeat the false claim that Trump won the 2020 presidential election, presenting her belief in election fraud as an asset in the Senate race. If Lake wins the Republican primary on 30 July, as she is widely expected to do, she will go on to face the Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego in November.“I’m the only person running for US Senate – either Republican or Democrat – who truly believes there was fraud in the election in 2020,” Lake said to applause from attendees. “Anybody believe there wasn’t fraud in 2020? Anybody believe Joe Biden really, truly got 81 million votes?”Courts rejected dozens of Trump’s lawsuits challenging the results of the 2020 election, and the former president has failed to produce substantive evidence corroborating his claim that widespread fraud tainted the results in battleground states. A group of Trump’s supporters later attacked the US Capitol in an attempt to disrupt the certification of Biden’s victory in the election, and some carried Confederate battle flags into the building.Lake appeared at the campaign event alongside Steve Slaton, the Trumped Store owner and Republican state legislative candidate who has attracted controversy over allegations that he inflated his military record. On his campaign website, Slaton claims to have served in Vietnam as a “crew chief/co-pilot on an AH-1G Cobra Attack Helicopter”. But military records obtained by the Mountain Daily Star indicate that Slaton was stationed only in Korea, primarily serving as a helicopter repairman, and did not even join the army until after the last US troops left Vietnam.Slaton’s campaign website also includes a photo of him standing in front of a Confederate battle flag at the Trumped Store. A photo, posted to X by the Arizona state senator Wendy Rodgers, shows Lake and Slaton posing together at the campaign event last week. More