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      Trump's hopes fade in Wisconsin as 'greatest economy' boast unravels

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      Coarse, cruel, chaotic. Donald Trump has been called a lot of things. Even some of his supporters have had a hard time embracing the darker aspects of his personality. Until recently they have, however, trusted the president on one one vital issue: the economy.But with just 16 days to go until the election, there are clear signs that Trump’s claims to have created the “greatest economy we’ve ever had in the history of our country” are unravelling.Perhaps nowhere is that more worrying for Trump than in Wisconsin.Losing Wisconsin ended Hillary Clinton’s presidential chances in 2016. Famously she didn’t campaign there, presuming a win that was snatched from her by Trump’s promises to end unfair trade practices that had hurt the state’s dairy industry and to bring back manufacturing jobs.Until February, Trump could have confidently boasted that he had made good on his promises. Unemployment had fallen to record lows in the state, manufacturing was coming back – albeit at the same, snail-paced crawl that it had under Obama. The headline figures looked good. Then came the coronavirus – a disease that is now ravaging the state and has, in its wake, exposed the fault lines beneath those headline figures.The virus and the economy now seem to have morphed into some hideous hybrid, and the fragile recovery that followed the first peak in infections is now being threatened by new spikes in infections. Last week Wisconsin reported 3,747 cases in one day, its highest level since the outbreak, and more than California’s daily average, a state with six times Wisconsin’s 5.8 million population.“The economy is always big. It’s just this year it is so intertwined with the pandemic that is hard to separate them,” said Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who ran George W Bush’s re-election race in Wisconsin in 2004.Had the pandemic never happened and the economy been humming along, “that’s all President Trump would be talking about” – but now all anyone is talking about is the virus and what it is doing to the economy.A recent CNN poll found Trump and his rival, former vice-president Joe Biden, tied among registered voters at 49% apiece on who would handle the economy better. Back in May, 54% of registered voters said Trump would handle the economy better, compared with 42% for Biden.Graul expects a close race. Trump beat Clinton in Wisconsin by just 0.77% in 2016. The polls currently have Biden ahead by a clear 6.5% in the state, but in a year that feels like no other anything can happen between now and 3 November.In this volatile environment, progressives have been making gains with voters, reflecting on the fragility of the economy Trump had hoped would re-elect him.Earlier this month, the advocacy group Opportunity Wisconsin held a town hall with Wisconsinites from around that state, who talked about how they see Trump’s economy. It wasn’t a pretty picture.For an hour on Zoom, the Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin led a discussion with dairy farmers and cheese makers talking about friends and neighbors going out of business even before the pandemic began. University of Wisconsin history professor Selika Ducksworth-Lawton spoke powerfully about how the virus has devastated communities of color in the state. “For marginalized communities, this has been awful. There have been some people who have referred to it almost as an ethnic cleansing,” she said. “We have failed at the most basic requirements of a nation state.”But perhaps the clearest example of the problems that preceded the pandemic, and have been sadly highlighted by it, came from Kyra Swenson, an early childhood educator from Madison. “I’m a teacher, I’m not a business owner. I don’t have a lot of wealth. It’s just me and my husband trying to make life swing for ourselves and our two kids,” said Swenson.Even before the pandemic, she said she felt she was getting very little help. Early childhood educators make about $10 an hour in Wisconsin and receive no benefits. “We don’t get a retirement account. We don’t give two hoots about what Wall Street is doing. We are not investing in that. We are trying to pay our rent, pay for food.”A third of Wisconsin’s early childhood educators are on federal assistance “because that is how hard it is for us to make it.”Trump’s biggest policy achievement – a $1.5tn tax cut that was billed as a “middle-class miracle” – actually increased her family’s taxes, she said. “It didn’t benefit us. That’s the reality.”And the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic has been “terrifying”, she said. She thinks it is no coincidence that Wisconsin’s rates have spiked since children and college students went back to school – a move that came after Trump said children could not spread the coronavirus, an opinion that has been widely debunked. “It didn’t have to be this bad,” she said.Changing mindsOpportunity Wisconsin, aided by the progressive advocacy organization the Hub Project, has had remarkable success turning opinion around on Trump’s economic success through targeted messaging. But it has had big obstacles to overcome, not just because changing opinions is notoriously hard.The Republicans have been remarkably successful in their economic messaging, not least in Wisconsin. Since Ronald Reagan, the Republican party has promulgated the idea that there is a simple formula for economic success: lower taxes, less regulation and smaller government. That message, repeated over and over for 40 years, helped Wisconsin shift from a bastion of progressive politics to a union-bashing laboratory for rightwing economic experiments led by Scott Walker, the former governor, and Paul Ryan, the former House speaker, and backed by the Koch brothers. More

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      Women march against Trump and Republicans in major US cities

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      Thousands of mostly young women in masks rallied on Saturday in Washington DC and other US cities, exhorting voters to oppose Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans in the 3 November elections. The latest in a series of rallies that began with a massive women’s march the day after Trump’s January 2017 inauguration was playing out during the coronavirus pandemic. Demonstrators were asked to wear face coverings and practice social distancing. Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of the Women’s March, opened the Washington event by asking people to keep their distance from one another, saying the only superspreader event would be the recent one at the White House. She talked about the power of women to end Trump’s presidency. “His presidency began with women marching and now it’s going to end with woman voting. Period,” she said. More

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      Stock Market America is booming. So is Unemployment America | Lloyd Green

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      The chasm between the two Americas – “Unemployment America” and “Stock Market America” – made starkly visible this spring, has not disappeared. Instead, the divide has widened.America’s stock indexes have weathered the pandemic; the country’s job markets less so. On Thursday, the labor department reported nearly 900,000 new unemployment claims and Columbia University announced that 8 million Americans had fallen into poverty since May.Meanwhile, the number of Covid-19 cases continues to climb, the Affordable Care Act stands in legal jeopardy, and Amy Coney Barrett, the president’s latest pick for the supreme court, will not tell us if she believes that Medicare and social security pass constitutional muster. The New Deal may yet be undone.On that score, language that soothed the White House and Republicans may come back to haunt them at the ballot box. According to polls, older voters are prepared to vote for Joe Biden, a Democrat, in a marked departure from elections past.Donald Trump, not to mention many Republicans in Congress, do not seem to understand that for millions of older Americans, social security and Medicare are not nice-to-haves or cushy benefits handed out at the benevolent whims of the state. Rather, they are the earned benefits of a lifetime of work. According to US government data, social security benefits constitute about one-third of the income of the elderly, and for many even more.According to the New York Times, in February, at the same time that the Trump administration was declaring that the virus was not a big deal, the president’s top advisers tipped off the gods of the markets and the Republican donor base that the outbreak would be worse than the administration was saying publicly. Trump and his minions acted as if they believed the public could not handle the truth even as Wall Street dumped its holdings.Against that backdrop, preserving healthcare and retirement is the least they can do. But we know they won’t. Both the president and Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, have spoken openly of cutting or “adjusting” entitlements. Then again, McConnell laughs about the failure of Congress to deliver Covid relief.On the campaign trail, the populist rhetoric of Trump’s 2016 campaign has given way, in 2020, to self-pity and personal resentments. The president wants us to feel his pain even as it appears that he is incapable of feeling ours. His relationship with his core supporters grows ever more asymmetric.When Trump’s refusal to wear a mask in public is taken as a sign of defiant courage, the body politic is certainly ailing. Half of Americans view their personal situations as better than they were four years ago. At the same time, however, nearly three in five voters see the country as being in worse shape than at the outset of the Trump presidency.When Trump’s refusal to wear a mask in public is taken as a sign of courage, the body politic is ailingWith nearly 220,000 people dead from the disease, the state of the Union is definitely hurting. The much touted “V”-shaped recovery is slow in coming, if it ever arrives.Don’t look to election day to bind the nation’s wounds. The realities that led to Trump’s electoral college upset are still with us.The gaps between the rural US, white evangelicals, white voters without college degrees and the rest of the country have not disappeared. Military suicides are up by a fifth and death by opioids has returned. Beyond that, the issue of immigration retains its potency.True, the president may have given his base a sense of calm but the causes of grievance have not gone away. What David Brooks once described as an idyllic urban existence, Bobos in Paradise, appears to have turned into a hell for everyone else. Expect Trumpism to live on, regardless of what happens on 3 November and the days that follow.A definitive Biden victory stands to provide the US with a president whose political legitimacy is less open to question or attack. Unlike George W Bush in 2004 or the incumbent, a Biden win would likely be accompanied by a majority of the popular vote.Beyond that, Biden does not carry Clinton-era baggage. The former vice-president is not a child of 1960. Likewise, no one has ever seriously accused the reflexively centrist “man from Scranton” of being a radical. Together, that would help lower the temperature for a bit, anyway, and that counts.The two Americas will not disappear any time soon. At most, we can at least hope for some civility, and God knows we can use it. More

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      Trump to hold Wisconsin rally despite warning over public gatherings

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      Donald Trump will hold a rally in Wisconsin on Saturday evening, despite state health officials declaring a crisis over the coronavirus pandemic and his own experts warning that public gatherings there risk causing “preventable deaths”.Cases are rising in Wisconsin, as they are across the American heartland. On Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University, the US passed 8m confirmed cases. The death toll is close to 220,000. Both figures are the highest in the world.The Trump rally is schedule for Janesville, a small city in the south of the crucial swing state, where Trump trails Joe Biden by about eight points in poll averages. The president had been due to campaign there on 3 October, before he contracted coronavirus and was airlifted to hospital.Earlier this week, Trump’s own White House taskforce issued a warning to Wisconsin, which is considered to be in the “red zone” for high infection rates, saying people should avoid crowds if they want do not want to cause “preventable deaths”.The warning was included in a weekly report issued to governors but not made public. It was reported by the Center for Public Integrity (CPI), an investigative nonprofit in Washington.The report urged people in Wisconsin to be diligent about “mask wearing, physical distancing, hand hygiene, avoiding crowds in public and social gatherings in private”.“Wisconsin’s ability to limit … hospitalisations and deaths will depend on increased observation of social distancing mitigation measures by the community until cases decline,” it said, adding that “lack of compliance with these measures will lead to preventable deaths”.Trump’s rally will be held outdoors, at the Janesville airport. Attendees will be instructed to wear masks, but such instructions have not been enforced at other rallies, where social distancing has not been observed.Trump’s election website demands attendees absolve the campaign of any liability if they fall ill and says that “by registering for this event, you understand and expressly acknowledge that an inherent risk of exposure to Covid-19 exists in any public place where people are present”.Those registering must voluntarily “assume all risks” related to catching coronavirus.“That indicates they know the reality, because if they weren’t worried about it then they wouldn’t bother,” William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, told the CPI. He said the virus could spread amid crowding at the rally, even outdoors, and at any indoor celebrations.“Given the rates of disease currently in Wisconsin, we can say pretty categorically this is going to produce opportunity for transmission,” Hanage said.Janesville is in Rock county, which earlier this week reported its highest levels yet for coronavirus infections, hospitalisations and positive tests, according to local media.The county has almost 1,000 cases and 143 new positives were reported on Monday, the most in a single day, according to state health data. Of test results reported, a new high of 83% were positive.Trump first planned to rally in Janesville after officials in La Crosse, on the border with Minnesota, urged him not to hold an event there because the city was a coronavirus “red zone”.Rock county board chairwoman Kara Purviance asked Trump not to hold the event in Janesville either, saying: “It is irresponsible of the president to hold a rally that will put Rock county citizens in danger of contracting and spreading the virus.”Rock county administrator Josh Smith told the Janesville Gazette the county was now taking a different approach, because he didn’t think asking the president not to visit would “result in any different outcomes”.“Based on our previous conversations with the campaign and information we put out, we believe everyone is aware of the concerns we have about mass gatherings and the need to comply with public health guidance. At this point, we’re encouraging all attendees to wear a mask, remain physically distant, sanitise.”With more than 1,000 Covid-19 patients in hospital in Wisconsin, the state this week opened an overflow facility, the Wisconsin State Journal reported.“We are in crisis here in Wisconsin, and so we are ready to accept patients as the need arises,” said Julie Willems Van Dijk, deputy secretary of the state health department. “The trajectory does not look good. We need to be prepared for that.” More