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      Trump calls media ‘the enemy camp’ in speech declaring victory

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      On stage in West Palm Beach in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald Trump thanked his supporters, his family and his campaign team as he declared victory in the US presidential race. One group not on the former president’s thank-you cards: the media, whom he referred to as “the enemy camp”.Introducing his running mate, the Ohio senator JD Vance, Trump said: “I told JD to go into the enemy camp. He just goes: OK. Which one? CNN? MSNBC? He’s like the only guy who looks forward to going on, and then just absolutely obliterates them.”Trump has had an antagonistic relationship with the US press for years, often labeling them as the “crooked media” and calling them the “enemy of the people”. But as the Republican candidate in recent weeks ramped up his rhetoric against his perceived opponents, he’s intensified his attacks on reporters as well.The comment during Trump’s victory speech come less than a week after he joked during a campaign rally he would have no concerns about reporters being shot at if there were another assassination attempt against him.During meandering comments at a rally in Pennsylvania last week, Trump complained about gaps in the bulletproof shields surrounding him after a gunman opened fire on him at a rally in July.“To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news and I don’t mind that so much,” he said.The press, he added, were “seriously corrupt people”.Trump’s communications director later claimed in a statement the comments were supposedly an effort to look out for the welfare of the news media.Trump on Wednesday morning claimed victory over his Democratic opponent in the presidential race, Kamala Harris, and pledged to bring a “golden age” to the United States.“This was a movement like nobody’s ever seen before, and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond,” Trump said. More

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      The return of President Trump – podcast

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      Donald Trump has declared victory in the presidential election after winning key swing states in the race for the White House. As the night unfolded Helen Pidd spoke to Michael Safi at Kamala Harris’s watch party in Washington DC, where the mood turned from cautious optimism to something much darker. As results came in Lauren Gambino picked up on the nervousness in the Harris camp – and then came the battleground states. Ed Pilkington watched North Carolina go to Trump. George Chidi was in Georgia as its electoral college votes were added to Trump’s tally. And then came the big one: Pennsylvania.As Carter Sherman reported, this was an election of huge potential consequences for women. Along with Trump in the White House, the Republicans have retaken control of the Senate and several ballot measures intended to protect women’s rights fell in the states they were voted on.At just before 7.30am in the UK, Trump took to the stage at his campaign event in Florida to claim victory. More

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      Left, right, Harris, Trump: all prisoners of political nostalgia in an era few understand | Rafael Behr

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      Donald Trump’s record of refusal to concede defeat after the last US election should have disqualified him from running in this one. His criminal indictments should have meant banishment from mainstream politics. His campaign rhetoric – a rambling litany of bigotry and spite – should not have carried beyond the paranoid fringe.But what use are should and shouldn’t against the brute force of can and does? Things that are supposed to be self-evident in a constitutional democracy have ceased to be obvious to millions of Americans. We don’t need to wait for all votes to be counted to wish for a stronger cultural inoculation against tyranny.A healthier body politic would not have been infected by Trump’s candidacy. How did the democratic immune system fail? He is gifted with a malign kind of charisma, but it needed a confluence of economic stagnation, cultural polarisation and technological revolution over many years to achieve maximum contagion.There is always a risk of romanticising the past when coping with anxiety in the present. Aggressive nationalism that bristles with racism, misogyny and swaggering machismo is an old style in American politics. There is also nothing especially new in polarised social attitudes. Culture wars have been waged with varying degrees of intensity for generations.What stands out as a uniquely 21st-century innovation is the segregation of political tribes into discrete and self-reinforcing information silos. Formerly, even in times of fierce political division, there were institutions and rules that governed debate. There were commonly agreed facts that might be subject to rival interpretation while still connecting partisans of opposite views to a shared reality.That way of conducting politics is not obsolete, but it is rooted in analogue systems. It relies on real-life interactions, deliberations, clunky old institutions, meandering conversations, small talk. It is the stuff of people mingling in assemblies and town halls, breaking bread together. It is the opposite of politics played in digital mode where the platforms on which debate is conducted are also engines of radicalisation; where differences of opinion are accelerated into irreconcilable enmities.This isn’t an elegy for some pre-internet golden age of enlightened public discourse. Prejudice, misinformation, sheer stupidity and abuse of power were abundant enough when information flows were tightly controlled and volumes were a tiny fraction of what they are now.An apparent correlation between extreme politics and the rise of social media doesn’t prove a causal link. But there is a plausible argument that a very online culture, marked by short attention spans, narcissism and impatient consumer appetites, has a more natural affinity with shallow demagoguery than with representative democracy.The whole apparatus of voting for a candidate who might not satisfy your exact needs, and probably doesn’t embody all the values you hold sacred, but might at least make some half-decent decisions for the country as a whole over the coming years, feels oddly antiquated. It is alien to the click-and-collect spirit of digital commerce.A democratic election is the antithesis of an internet transaction. It contains not just an expectation of delayed gratification, but a guarantee of frustration. Compromise, imperfection and disappointment are the necessary price for having a government that tries to balance the complex demands of a variegated society.The alternative is a political movement, such as the Maga cult, that treats elections as a cry of rage or exultant self-actualisation. Trump’s campaign has never construed voting in terms of civic choice, with more than one potentially legitimate outcome. It was always going to be either a heroic restoration of the rightful president or another iteration of the deep-state conspiracy against him. There is no place for defeat in the script except as material to bolster the claim of a higher victory.It is a mode of campaigning that is hostile to the basic premise of a democratic ballot, which is that either side might win and counting votes actually counts.It also exploits a culture of political journalism that measures professional integrity by a refusal to pick sides. It has been peculiar to observe liberal American media continuing to apply their conventional reporting templates, which contain the implicit judgment that the two candidates have equivalent democratic credentials. That is absurd when one of them transparently despises democracy.Much of America’s moderate conservative and liberal establishment seems to have spent the campaign going through the motions of political normalcy, hoping to stir the system into resilience by operation of muscle memory. It doesn’t work.But ringing the alarm at the spectre of fascism doesn’t work either. There is no doubt that Trump’s temperament and ambitions are fascistic. He admires dictators, lusts after absolute power, speaks of political critics as enemies and boasts of his willingness to crush them with armed organs of the state.And yet calling that kind of politics by its proper name doesn’t provoke any scruple among his supporters. Partly that is because the currency of comparison with 20th-century dictators has been dulled by overuse. “Fascist” is a label that has been applied too casually and too often as unthinking abuse to be rehabilitated as a tool with moral precision and rhetorical impact more than 100 years after it was coined.That doesn’t mean the lessons of the 1920s and 1930s are irrelevant to the current predicament. It is easy to find disturbing parallels, and the connection can’t be ignored when white supremacists and card-carrying neo-Nazis are an active cadre in the new radical-right coalition.But there is also a danger for liberal opinion in leaning too heavily on the familiar cautionary tales from history.Casting the threat as a resurgence of something old – a zombie ideology risen from its postwar grave – preserves the convenient idea of liberal democracy as the more modern and more highly evolved political system. It is the instinct to dismiss nationalism as an ideological retirement home for angry white people whose skills don’t equip them to compete in a dynamic, globalised economy, and who express their frustration as bigoted reaction against progressive social change.There might be a dose of truth in that analysis – but it doesn’t contain an argument in favour of liberal democracy, beyond the implication that only stupid, bad people oppose it. Unsurprisingly, those same people don’t find that argument very persuasive.The awkward truth for those of us who rally in defence of liberal democracy today is that it has undergone no obvious renewal since its peak at the end of the last century. We, no less than the nationalists, are imprisoned by nostalgia, wishing the future could be more like the past. And so we find ourselves constantly testing the limits of analogue protection against a virus that is digitally borne.

      Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist

      Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. More

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      Red or blue? The bellwether counties that could swing the US election

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      With recent election polling showing a dead heat – or slim victory for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris within the statistical margin of error – seven swing states are all but certain to decide the race.As pollsters scramble to make sense of these results, amid questions about reliability given bad calls over support for Trump in 2016 and 2020, analysts are taking an even more granular approach in interpreting battleground state voters, focusing on a handful of counties in these hotly contested regions.They are often referred to as bellwether counties. This in effect means counties that could tip the scale in determining a swing state’s outcome.Here are the counties that analysts – ranging from seasoned election-watchers to Wall Street financiers – are focused on.Maricopa county, ArizonaIn 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump in Arizona by a mere 10,000 votes. Biden’s victory was bolstered by voters in Maricopa county, which encompasses the Phoenix metro area.View image in fullscreenFour years ago, Maricopa comprised more than 60% of Arizona ballots. Biden won Maricopa by 45,000 votes – with 50.3% of voters casting their ballots for him – underscoring just how important this county is. The Associated Press explained the importance of this: “In states where voters are so overwhelmingly concentrated in a single county, even a narrow win can produce big shifts in the statewide numbers.”Also worth pointing out: Maricopa has large proportion of demographics both campaigns have courted aggressively, such as centrist suburban Republicans, Latino voters, and senior citizens, per US News & World Report.Miami-Dade county, FloridaThe Sunshine state has taken a sharp right turn in recent election cycles. Trump boasts almost a double-digit advantage over Harris. Florida, once a purplish swing state, is bright red.Analysts are keeping an eye on Miami-Dade county, which includes Miami and many surrounding communities. Long a Democratic stronghold, with Hillary Clinton winning the county by a 30-point margin in 2016, it has since moved right.View image in fullscreenBiden beat Trump by seven points in 2020. But, the state’s most populous county is expected to post results “relatively early” after polls close at 7pm, Reuters notes.Some analysts believe Miami-Dade could foreshadow Harris’s overall results. If she underperforms, especially among Latinos, this could bode poorly for her overall, the news outlet said.Metro Atlanta counties in GeorgiaThe Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan area is considered by virtually every analyst as integral to deciding this swing state. Some have focused on Forsyth county, located 40 miles from Atlanta, as the decisive county, while others have insisted that a collection of suburban and exurban counties will determine the race.In addition to Forsyth, analysts have pointed to Cobb, Gwinnett, and DeKalb counties as potentially decisive. Of course, Fulton county, which encompasses Atlanta, is seen as key.View image in fullscreenOn a recent episode of Pod Save America, NBC’s election expert Steve Kornacki noted that nine counties, which he referred to as the “blue blob”, comprised more than 40% of Georgia’s vote. This region “is just getting bluer and bluer every election”.Kornacki said this race could indicate whether it’s expanding.“There’s one county in that area, it’s been moving dramatically towards Democrats but just missed – Fayette county – the last time around,” he said. “If the Democrats are flipping that this time around and expanding that blob, I think that’s a sign, because that’s talking about enthusiasm in the suburbs.”Saginaw county, MichiganLocated in the Great Lakes Bay Region of Michigan, Saginaw county is considered the pre-eminent swing county in the most decisive swing state. There are multiple reasons for this, among them Saginaw’s voting record.Barack Obama landed Saginaw in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Trump bested Hillary Clinton by just over 1,000 votes. The margin thinned still more in 2020, when Biden won by a mere 303 ballots.View image in fullscreenBiden’s 2020 win in Saginaw, however, was complicated by Trump’s votes actually increasing in that county. His loss was also attributed to Democrats who didn’t vote in 2016 but decided in 2020 to boot Trump out.Harris could need the same voter turnout in Saginaw to win. The outcome of this county could well reflect national trends, as voters’ concerns there echo that of those in other crucial contests.Clark county, NevadaBiden beat Trump by just three points in Nevada’s 2020 presidential race. Clark county, which is home to Las Vegas, has approximately 50% of Nevada’s population.If Trump wants to win Nevada, he would have to sap Democratic votes in Clark county, Reuters explains. Observers are also paying attention to Washoe county; this is Nevada’s second-largest population center, containing the city of Reno.Similar to Las Vegas, Trump would have to chip away at Democratic margins in the Reno area as well. As a testament to the tension surrounding Washoe, observers from both sides of the aisle have been closely monitoring the count following recent controversies over voting there.The Republican county commissioners recently voted against certifying results in this year’s primary, prompting legal action, before they reversed course. The elections office, meanwhile, has been answering an onslaught of questions and public information requests, in an effort to allay the public’s concerns about the election.While Democrats have won every presidential vote in Nevada since 2008, economic stressors – such as increased prices and decreased affordable housing – have spurred questions about working-class voters’ leanings.Mecklenburg county, North CarolinaRepublicans have won every presidential election in North Carolina since Obama’s run in 2008. Reuters notes that tight polling has turned North Carolina into a swing state this year.Mecklenberg county, which includes Charlotte, is strongly Democratic. Analysts are also eyeing adjacent Cabarrus county: Trump beat Biden there in 2020, but his lead slimmed by 10 points compared to 2016, Reuters noted.Wake county, which contains the highly educated city of Raleigh, is similarly drawing attention. This higher-than-average income county once skewed Republican but has favored Democratic presidential candidates since 2008 “by generally increasing margins”, US News & World Report notes.Erie county, PennsylvaniaErie county, which contains the city of Erie, has been described as “a bellwether area in a bellwether state”. Per US News, “No county in Pennsylvania – and possibly in the country – is as consistently swingy as Erie county.”Indeed, Trump won the working-class county in 2016, followed by a slim Biden win there in 2020. Some analysts are also paying attention to Lackawanna county.Scranton, Pennsylvania – Biden’s birthplace – is in this county. Unlike Erie county, Lackawanna has become more Republican of late. If Trump performs well in Lackawanna, it could spell broader success for him across this pivotal state.Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

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      Remember, remember, the fifth of November, when a bad guy tried to blow up a political system | Marina Hyde

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      Well … we finally got to 5 November. Of course, you know the story. Once upon a time, there was a bad guy who wanted to set fire to a country’s political system. Metaphorically, but also literally. I mean, he wasn’t subtle, this guy. This Guy, I should say, because his name was Guy Fawkes. Why – who did you think I was talking about?Because time’s a great healer, Britons now celebrate the thwarting of this truly awful Guy’s insurrection with fireworks, fires and organised effigy-burning. But the good version of those things – not the kind we do when we go out of a football tournament in the later stages. We’re still working on teasing out the family fun in those particular moments.Incidentally, before I proceed further, a word about the timing of this column, which I am writing on Tuesday morning but which will appear in the Wednesday print edition of this newspaper. That is My Struggle, assuming there isn’t a monopoly on that working title in the current news cycle. And even without those challenges of the calendar, it is impossible to know how many people out there are catching up with the Gunpowder Plot on a time lag. Furthermore, there will be long-view historians who will argue that we still don’t actually really know the ultimate knock-on results and/or fallout of it all. So if you are catching up with the whole story on tape delay, beware of spoilers that will follow. Please look away now if you want to experience the magic/horror [delete as applicable] as if in real time.So anyway, our Guy. Not only was he a very bad hat, but he wore a very bad hat – a signature piece of headgear that simply screamed MAKE ENGLAND PAPIST AGAIN. And this Guy swore he’d overthrow the political leadership of the country by any means necessary. Blow it all up, burn it all down – this was his plot. He could really drone on about it for hours to like-minded people. Other details? He sometimes went by Guido, because nobody – NOBODY – loved Hispanics more than him, or had done more for Hispanics than him.Anyway, the fateful day approached. Despite the highest possible stakes, some of his henchteam couldn’t quite keep their mouths shut about it all. One of them actually wrote down a semi-cryptic warning about what was coming, and sent it to a lawmaker called Lord Monteagle. I think it was done on parchment, but it could have also been a social media post on X (which back in the 17th century was known as Twitter).Even though people will say any old thing on parchment, something about the message properly unsettled Lord Monteagle, who shared the post with King James I. As for the precise mechanics of that share, let’s assume Monteagle quote-posted it, adding a topper along the lines of: “They hath said the quiet part out loud.” Or maybe “out Loude”. My understanding is that spelling was a bit of a free-for-all at the time, and there was a lot of unnecessary capitalisation in some people’s posts.At this point, the king had a number of options. He could have regarded engaging with the incendiary language about incendiary devices as beneath his dignity, and not at all befitting the civility politics of which he regarded himself as the perfect embodiment. He could have got a period celebrity to come out in his favour and denounce it. Which one? I don’t think James would have nailed down the composer William Byrd (he’d gone Catholic in the 1570s and might have endorsed Fawkes) – but William Shakespeare was coming off a huge box-office hit with Othello and was in development with King Lear. He’d have been ideal; people always do what playwrights say.But in the event, the king basically responded by going: “OMG Monteagle – if someone tells you who they are, BELIEVE THEM THE FIRST TIME.” Two of his team officials were immediately dispatched to parliament.By this stage, the Guy was in situ and well on his way to realising his plan. He was found by law enforcement down in the palace of Westminster’s cellars, with a slow match and a watch – presumably one from the Fawkes Signature Collection (advertising slogan: “Time is money so you wear a watch that matters”. There was also a pail of Diet Coke to sustain him through the night, some touchwood, and 36 barrels of gunpowder.Despite being busted in what you’d think was a pretty open-and-shut way, I imagine that aides from Fawkes’s conspiracy scrambled to “walk back” the idea that some bad stuff was in the process of going down. Their precise words are lost to time, but no doubt they’d have wheeled out a few of the classics. “This is just Guy being Guy – you shouldn’t take him so seriously.” “It truly saddens us to see ye olde fake news media lying that he meant any harm.” “He was just dressing up as a bomb-maker to show solidarity with our great blue-collar munitions workers.” Or my personal favourite: “These barrels of gunpowder are just a metaphor.”What a Guy. The rest is both history, and the future that liberals want. So whichever stage of the great timeline we’re at by the time you read this, I suppose we have to at least consider that one day, people will simply enjoy some kind of jolly annual commemoration of whatever it was that happened. In the meantime, I desperately hope Guy Fawkes day is/was everything you wished it to be.

      Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist More

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      Trials, drop-outs and assassination attempts: 15 moments that defined the US election campaign

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      It has been called the most critical election in US history, and it has certainly been one of the wildest races, with an incumbent president stepping down late in the campaign, a criminal guilty verdict for one of the candidates and a couple of assassination attempts. We revisit the key moments, played out against the backdrop of two seismic global conflicts, of a political struggle that holds American democracy itself in the balance.1. The challengersThe hard-right Florida governor Ron DeSantis was widely seen as the Republican most likely to prevent former president Donald Trump from becoming the party’s nominee for a third consecutive election. However, in January, despite being backed by the tycoon Rupert Murdoch, DeSantis ends his flailing campaign – and eventually endorses Trump, whose team had smeared him as “Pudding Fingers” due to his alleged eating habits. Running almost as an incumbent, Trump’s last serious challenger ends up being the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who, against all expectations, takes on the mantle of the anti-Trump vote. Casting doubt on Trump’s mental fitness and his loyalty to the US constitution, the former UN ambassador garners significant support – and perseveres until Super Tuesday in March, when she finally stands aside, leaving Trump the last major candidate standing for the 2024 Republican nomination.View image in fullscreen2. The presidentIn the annals of American politics, incumbent presidents seeking re-election typically enjoy a significant edge over their challengers. However, Joe Biden – the country’s oldest president – bucks the trend as his meandering remarks, frequent misspeaking of names and halting speech raise concerns that he might just be too old to take on Trump again. Nevertheless, essentially unopposed, the 46th president of the United States runs the board in the Democratic primaries and is named the party’s candidate for 2024, while vowing that, despite his advancing years, he remains the most capable contender to defeat Trump once again.View image in fullscreen3. The trialThe first real jolt of the election campaign arrives on 30 May, when a jury of 12 New Yorkers makes Trump the first ex-president in American history to become a convicted felon. They find him guilty of committing a crime – 34 of them, in fact – when he falsified business records to disguise $130,000 in hush-money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels, to hide the scandal from American voters on the eve of the 2016 election. It is far from Trump’s only legal woe: at various times he has faced more than 90 criminal counts, including racketeering charges in Georgia for a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results, where he marked another milestone: the first mugshot of an American president. (That case itself later takes a dramatic turn when the district attorney, Fani Willis, is revealed to have had an affair with a prosecutor she hired, and the case remains on hold while a judge considers whether to disqualify her.) Separately, in February, a federal judge orders Trump to pay $83.3m to the writer E Jean Carroll, who had sued for defamation after Trump publicly disputed that he had sexually assaulted her – an accusation the judge ruled was “substantially true”. Many of the other cases remain in limbo while Trump pursues his well-worn legal tactic: delay, delay, delay.View image in fullscreen4. The debateBiden’s performance in the opening presidential debate against Trump on 27 June in Atlanta is perhaps one of the worst in American history. Shaky, raspy-voiced and slack-jawed, his disastrous showing is punctuated by repeated stumbles over words, uncomfortable pauses and at least one point where he trails off before claiming: “We finally beat Medicare.” Top Democratic figures and donors panic, while recriminations swirl about the role of his campaign and of the media in failing to adequately account for his apparently declining mental fitness. The drumbeat for Biden, 81, to step aside becomes increasingly relentless, as Democratic strategists finally join average voters in questioning whether the party might yet swap him out for a younger standard bearer to face off against Trump.View image in fullscreen5. The immunity rulingOn 1 July, the supreme court drops a bombshell of its own: it rules Trump at least partly immune from criminal prosecution for anything he did in his “official capacity” as president. The decision, a major victory for Trump, destroys the likelihood of a criminal trial for Trump over trying to subvert the 2020 election occurring before the new election in November 2024. It is also the latest example of what most observers agree is the rightwing capture of the supreme court that Trump himself made possible by appointing three arch-conservative judges. Having already overturned Roe v Wade – a monumental victory for the anti-abortion movement, for which Trump proudly claims credit, that made abortion a huge issue in the 2022 midterms and now the 2024 election – the conservatives had caused even more furore in May when photos proved an upside down flag flew outside the home of Justice Samuel Alito, a symbol of support for Trump’s “Stop the Steal” movement that was prominent at the January 6 riot. Since the immunity ruling, the special counsel Jack Smith has hit back, filing a new indictment with more streamlined allegations; Trump in return has promised to fire Smith “within two seconds” if he wins re-election.6. The shootingOn 13 July, during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump is shot and wounded in his upper right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who fires eight bullets with an AR-15-style rifle from the rooftop of a nearby building. As security agents cover the president, he stands with a raised fist and shouts: “Fight, fight, fight”, in what becomes an instantly iconic photograph and moment. The shooting claims the life of one attendee, and two others are left in critical condition; Crooks is killed by security agents. Just nine weeks later, on 15 September, Trump is allegedly the target of a second aspiring assassin at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, where Secret Service agents find Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, hiding in the bushes with a rifle. As well as setting off a crisis in the Secret Service, the events give Trump a rallying cry for his re-election effort: he appears at the Republican national convention days after the Butler shooting wearing an ear bandage, to a rapturous welcome.7. The withdrawalAt 1.46pm on 21 July, Biden announces he will no longer seek re-election – ending weeks of fevered speculation and mounting pressure from lawmakers, donors, activists and voters terrified of his inability to beat Trump. A key intervention comes from the actor and Democratic fundraiser George Clooney: “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” he writes. Biden’s longtime political ally and ex-House speaker Nancy Pelosi also plays a crucial role in limiting the president’s legacy to one term in what she says is a “cold calculation” for the sake of the country – and later tells the Guardian she has not spoken to her old friend since.8. The coronationTaking the stage in Chicago on 23 August to a thunderous standing ovation, the vice-president, Kamala Harris, with the full-throated support of Biden, officially accepts the Democratic presidential nomination, making her the first Black woman to lead a major party ticket. Harris declares the upcoming election an opportunity for the country to “chart a new way forward” and encourages voters to write the “next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told”. The impact is immediate and dramatic: she goes on to raise more than $1bn in less than three months, a record, and draws boisterous crowds to energetic rallies where she focuses on reproductive rights, economic help for the middle class and safeguarding US democracy.9. The wildcardRobert F Kennedy Jr, the scion of the most famous Democratic family whose independent campaign for president had at times reached as high as 10% in national polling, drops out. Kennedy had faced a string of scandals, including accusations he had assaulted a former babysitter. He also admitted that, yes, it was him who dumped a bear carcass in Central Park in a case that had mystified New Yorkers a decade earlier. After dropping out, the environmental campaigner turned vaccine skeptic then plays both sides – reportedly making overtures to Harris in August to discuss endorsing her in exchange for a job, then opting to back Trump, who has allegedly offered Kennedy control over the health agencies. Among third-party candidates still running are the environmentalist Jill Stein, who also stood as the Green party’s candidate in 2012 and 2016, the progressive activist Cornel West, and Chase Oliver of the Libertarian party.10. The running matesIn July, the Ohio senator JD Vance formally accepts Trump’s offer to run as his vice-presidential nominee – a dramatic change of position for Vance, the author of the hit memoir Hillbilly Elegy who once described himself as a “never Trumper” and called his new boss “America’s Hitler”. But if there is one quote for which JD Vance will be remembered in history, it is his controversial definition of leading Democrats: “A bunch of childless cat ladies,” he told the Fox News host Tucker Carlson in 2021. On the other side of the aisle, Harris chooses the Minnesota governor Tim Walz, a native of rural Nebraska who was a teacher and high school football coach and served in the National Guard for 24 years before entering politics. Walz captures national attention with a surprisingly effective takedown of Republicans: “These guys are just weird.”View image in fullscreen11. The billionaireThe wealthiest man on the planet formally declares what most people had suspected after he bought Twitter and turned it into the more extreme X: he is a full-fledged cheerleader for Trump. First endorsing Trump after the assassination attempt, and then dancing and leaping on stage at a Trump rally, the boss of Tesla, Space X and several other companies takes to the newest of his many jobs with a gusto that shames even the most politically active billionaires. Musk becomes everything from a Trump policy adviser to a mega-donor and (through his America Pac campaign group) a leading figure in the Republican “ground game”, its effort to get voters to the polls. In October, he also begins giving away $1m a day to Pennsylvanians who are registered voters – causing a judge to demand his presence in court for running an “illegal lottery”. To those who ask what’s in it for Musk, observers point to billions in federal contracts and Trump promising him a role in helping gut regulators.View image in fullscreen12. The debate 2.0On 11 September, Harris outperforms Trump in their first debate, appearing to vindicate Biden’s decision to gracefully bow out and marking a dramatic change in fortune as she takes a slight polling lead over Trump – though the polls essentially remain tied for the remainder of the race. However, it isn’t Harris’s victory that most attracts headlines from the debate, but the former president’s claim about immigrants from Haiti: “In Springfield, they are eating the dogs,” Trump said. “They are eating the cats. They are eating the pets of the people that live there.” Quickly immortalized in a viral song, the statement – an obvious and quickly debunked lie – appears at first to hurt the Republicans, but far from repudiating it Trump and Vance begin repeating it as part of an anti-immigrant focus that the campaign embraces as its driving principle, including a promise to carry out the largest mass deportation in US history.13. The celebsIf Trump can rely on the support of the world’s richest man, Harris can count on that of its biggest-selling recording artist. In a post on Instagram minutes after the debate, Taylor Swift endorses Harris, encouraging her fans to register to vote and signing it “Childless Cat Lady”, a reference to Vance’s slur. She is hardly alone: Charli XCX had already set off a series of pro-Harris internet memes by tweeting “kamala IS brat” – referring to a lifestyle inspired by noughties excess and rave culture, as well as the name of her hit album Brat – and eventually Beyoncé, Eminem (whose hit Lose Yourself was rapped by Barack Obama at a Detroit rally where the superstar told his home city to “use your voice” for Harris) and dozens more pop stars back Harris. From actors such as Robert De Niro – who clashes with Trump supporters outside the ex-president’s hush money trial in New York – and the cast of Marvel’s Avengers movies, or athletes such as LeBron James (“When I think about my kids and my family and how they will grow up, the choice is clear to me”), most of the highest-profile celebrity endorsements have gone to Harris – though Trump can boast Hulk Hogan, Dr Phil and Kid Rock in his camp.14. The rallyAnger and vitriol take center stage at New York’s Madison Square Garden as Trump and a cabal of acolytes hold a rally marked by racist comments, coarse insults and threats about immigrants. The rally features nearly 30 speakers, with some of them making a series of racist remarks about Latinos, Black Americans and Jewish citizens. “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Tony Hinchcliffe says, among other controversial remarks including singling out a Black man in a remark about watermelons. In the hours following, Democrats, celebrities and Hispanic groups on both sides of the political aisle condemn the comments as “offensive” and “derogatory”, with many voters of Puerto Rican heritage saying they will change their votes to Harris – potentially a key voting bloc in the swing state of Pennsylvania. The event had already drawn comparisons to an infamous Nazi rally held at the arena in 1939, with the Democratic National Committee projecting images on the outside of the building repeating claims from Trump’s former chief of staff that he had “praised Hitler” – and although Vance dismisses the comparison, many note it was only in 2016 that Vance himself had suggested Trump could become “America’s Hitler”.15. The final pitchesThe days leading up to election day are always the most frenzied, and the 2024 race is no exception, with the candidates trading insults and billions of people around the world glued to the latest polls, which do not show a clear lead for either Trump or Harris. With the White House illuminated behind her, Harris draws a crowd of more than 75,000 people in Washington DC, referring to Trump as “another petty tyrant” who had stood in the same spot nearly four years ago and, in a last-gasp effort to cling to power, helped incite the mob that stormed the US Capitol. Meanwhile, Trump continues to smear immigrants and arrives at a rally in a garbage truck, a stunt to attack Democrats. Police chiefs and sheriffs across the country brace for potential violence targeting election workers, disruptions at polling locations and harassment of voters, while unfounded allegations of voter fraud prompt fears that Trump could, once more, refuse to accept the results if he loses – and this time get millions of Americans to do the same. More

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      How the US elections will unfold overnight for British viewers

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      By late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday, we may know who is going to be the next president of the United States. Or we may know that we don’t yet know. Or we may know who’s been projected as the winner but be bracing ourselves for weeks of legal action and protest. It’s going to be that sort of night.A reminder of the basics: whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is the next president will be decided by the electoral college, rather than a straight count of the national vote – meaning that the winner will be the person who gets to a simple majority of 270 of the 538 electors on offer across the 50 states, whether or not they get more votes than their opponent nationwide.That means that the result is quite likely to come down to who prevails in the seven battleground states identified by both sides as being up for grabs – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, as are 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate. There are also 13 state and territorial governorships to be decided.In the UK, the election will be covered across the BBC (including radio), ITV, Channel 4, Sky News and various others. You can get CNN’s US coverage by signing up on its website; it’s also available on Sky. The Guardian live blog is also running, obviously.Here is a guide to how the night will unfold. UK residents determined to stick around to the bitter end, whenever that might be, should consider getting some sleep at 8pm or 9pm, and setting alarms (at least six, at three-minute intervals) for midnight or 1am, since not much will happen before then anyway. But pace yourself. For all that we talk about election night, any of the key races – or several of them – could take well into the next day, or longer, to produce a clear result.10pm UK (5pm Eastern Time): exit polls give contextVoting ends in Indiana and most of Kentucky, but neither is in play. Meanwhile, the first batch of exit polls are released. Unlike in the UK, where exit polls are usually a decent guide to the final outcome, the American version offers only a tantalising hint of what may be in store: rather than providing a projection of final results on the basis of asking people at polling stations how they voted, they give a view of what respondents have said the issues that mattered the most to them were.They’re based on a bigger sample than typical polls – numbering in the tens of thousands – so they ought to give pretty robust findings. But knowing that voters were motivated by the economy or abortion, for example, will only be a clue to how the night might go, rather than a basis for projecting the result.Midnight UK/7pm ET: Georgia and North Carolina – the first cluesPolls close in nine states over the next hour. Don’t just follow the running count of electoral college votes to get a sense of how it’s going, though: Trump is expected to have the biggest tally coming out of this first batch, however his night is going.But polls also close in the first battleground states that could give a major indication of what’s happening: Georgia and North Carolina. Just as importantly, we may start to see whether any clear pattern is emerging that holds true across different states, and therefore provides evidence of what could happen elsewhere.We don’t know when any of the states will be called, and even the results in Georgia and North Carolina may not be known for hours – or, and let’s hope not, days – yet. It’s possible that broadcasters and the Associated Press will start to call some states that haven’t even finished counting if they conclude that the other side has no chance of catching up but the closer the race the longer it may take.(When we talk about states being “called”, we mean that major news organisations have examined the data and reached a conclusion that it is statistically impossible for the other side to win. Official declarations can take much longer.)1am UK/8pm ET: Oh God, it’s PennsylvaniaPolls close in about half the country – so any nationwide patterns should be becoming clear. But it’s Pennsylvania that matters most. With more electoral votes – 19 – than any other swing state, and polls suggesting that it’s the closest race in the country, this is a huge moment. If Trump wins, tell your friends that it was madness for Harris not to pick the state’s popular Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate; if Harris wins, you can muse that the insults hurled towards the state’s 470,000 Puerto Ricans at a recent Trump rally might have made the difference.Again, the polls closing doesn’t necessarily mean a quick declaration. In Pennsylvania, rules against counting mail-in ballots before polls close are likely to slow things down. So it might end up being one of the later races to be called among the key states. It took four days in 2020.Whenever they come, if Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina all go in one candidate’s favour, it will be very difficult for the other to win. If we don’t get that sort of news by now, find some caffeine or a cocktail and pin your eyelids to your forehead: we might be in for a long night.2am UK/9pm ET: Three more battleground statesIn this hour, polls will close in 15 states, including three of the four remaining battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. But Wisconsin wasn’t called until after 2pm the following day in 2016 or 2020. Arizona took more than a week in 2020, and there are more onerous rules in place around the count this time.It was around now in 2016 – 2.29am, to be precise – that AP called the race for Trump, with Clinton calling to concede a few minutes later In 2020, the result wasn’t called for four more days (the following Saturday).Another interesting state to watch now: Iowa, where a shock poll at the weekend gave Harris a lead of three points in a state generally assumed to be a sure thing for Trump, who won it at the last two elections. If that bears out in reality, it probably won’t make a difference to the overall outcome – but only because it is likely to indicate that Harris has had a better night than expected in other similar states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.By now, Trump is likely to have a solid-looking lead in the running electoral college count you’ll probably see on screen – but that is expected to start whittling down as polls close in big, solid blue states, including New York and California, from this point. But if and when those six swing states where polls have closed by now are called, it’s very likely that the result will be apparent.3am UK/10pm ET: NevadaPolls close in Nevada, the last swing state, this hour. It’s unlikely that its six electoral college votes will be decisive but if they are, things are probably going to feel uncertain for a while yet. It took 88 hours to call the state in 2020.Another question will be whether either candidate comes out to speak to their supporters, and when. Everything Trump has said suggests that it is very unlikely that he will concede defeat on election night, except in the unlikely event of a landslide against him. (In 2020, he made a speech at the White House at 2.21am ET in which he made his first false claims of electoral fraud.)The tone he and Harris strike in these hours and afterwards will give a sense of whether the result is going to be accepted all round – or if we could be in for a much more febrile period.4am/11pm ET: California, Alaska and everything afterThe last polls close over the next two hours and, while it is just about theoretically possible that it could all come down to Alaska, I wouldn’t bet your house on it. What seems significantly more likely is: whatever the candidates have said, if the race looks close, lawyers for both sides will be gearing up for court challenges in key states – while pro-Trump poll watchers and other supporters are likely to be making numerous claims of election interference.Last time around, exhaustive legal processes found similar claims to be without foundation but that doesn’t mean they won’t be repeated. It is entirely possible that we will have a clear call of a result from the major networks by this time – but that everything will still appear to be in flux. More