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How Biden Won Pennsylvania and Clinched the Election


2016

+0.7 Trump

2020

+0.6 Biden

Current statewide margin

Four days after Election Day, Joseph R. Biden Jr. was declared the winner in Pennsylvania, flipping it blue, as counties east of the Appalachian Mountains shifted left. The state, a battleground with 20 electoral votes, was enough to decisively tip the election in Mr. Biden’s favor, propelling him to victory.

PhiladelphiaPittsburgh

Shift since 2016

In counties that have reported almost all of their votes

More Democratic

More Republican

Mr. Biden’s largest vote margins were in dense population centers, including Philadelphia and its suburbs, and Allegheny County, which is home to Pittsburgh. The counting of absentee ballots in parts of those counties delayed the results, keeping news organizations from calling the state for several days.

PhiladelphiaPittsburgh

Margin in 2020

Circles show the size of lead in each county.


Biden


Trump

In Philadelphia County, he drew strong support in predominantly Black precincts. Turning out enough Black voters — Democrats’ core supporters — to counter Mr. Trump’s margins with rural white voters had been seen as critical for Mr. Biden, especially after Hillary Clinton’s lackluster showing with Black voters in 2016.


Mr. Trump, who four years ago became the first Republican to win the state since 1988, was able to build on his 2016 win in counties with more lower-income households and those with more white residents who did not have a college education.

Shift in county margins from 2016

Median household income

+10D

0

+10R

Higher income

Lower income

Share of white population
with no college degree

+10D

0

+10R

Fewer college educated

More college educated

Though Philadelphia County, a Democratic stronghold, voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Biden, it swung toward Mr. Trump by more than 4 percentage points, compared with 2016.


Margin of victory in Pennsylvania counties since 2008

Each line shows margins in one county over time

In Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties, Mr. Trump’s wins at the precinct level were almost entirely in areas with higher shares of white voters.


Over all, Mr. Trump fared better in Philadelphia than he did in 2016, probably the result of further shifts to the right among white voters, but also shifts in his favor in neighborhoods where Hispanic people make up a majority of the population.



Source: Elections - nytimes.com

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