Release of major Iowa poll scrapped after Pete Buttigieg's name 'left off survey'

The Des Moines Register and CNN canceled the release of one of the most influential polls of the Democratic presidential primaries on Saturday night, after candidate Pete Buttigieg reportedly complained that his name had been left off at least one survey.

CNN had dedicated an hour-long show to the poll, which was to be released in conjunction with the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. The survey was withheld, minutes before it was due to be released, after Buttigieg’s campaign contacted Selzer and Co, which conducted the poll.

The New York Times, citing a Buttigieg campaign aide, said a Buttigieg supporter was called by the pollster and asked their preferred presidential candidate. A list of candidates was read out but did not include Buttigieg’s name.

The survey, the final Register poll before the caucus on Monday, has been called “the most consequential poll in politics”, given the timing of its release and the impact it can have over voters. The Register has published a poll just before the caucuses for 76 years. The poll has predicted the correct winner in 10 out of the past 12 presidential primary races.

In a statement, the Des Moines Register said it would not release the poll “as planned”. It did not say whether the poll would be released in the coming days.

“Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa poll,” the Register said. “Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.”

CNN political director David Chalian said the network had been contacted about a potential error in the poll. Chalian said CNN and the Des Moines Register “weren’t able to determine exactly what happened” and that they had decided not to release the poll “out of an abundance of caution”.

Selzer and Co and the Buttigieg campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Vermont senator and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders led the previous Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, released on 10 January, by three points. Fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren was second, with 17% of the vote, with Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, on 16% and former vice president Joe Biden winning 15%.

Iowa dispenses just 41 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, a fraction of the 1991 candidates need to win the nomination. As the first to chose its preferred nominee, however, the state has outsized importance.

Sanders was holding a “caucus concert” with the band Vampire Weekend in Cedar Rapids on Saturday night, while across the city Buttigieg rallied supporters at a hotel. Warren and Biden each held three events on Saturday, with all the candidates planning last gasp events across Sunday and Monday.

A win in Iowa can help a candidate seem electable – to make it seem like the tide is in their favor – and convince other voters in the later states. Barack Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in national polls as Iowa voted in 2008, but after his surprise victory he quickly caught up to Clinton and eventually won the nomination.