'Beginning of change?': Government says rate of coronavirus spread slower than predicted

The government’s top scientific adviser has said the UK could be seeing the “beginning of change” in the number of new cases of coronavirus.

Sir Patrick Vallance struck a cautiously optimistic note as he outlined new figures, saying there had not been the “acceleration” in the number of cases that ministers had feared.

New UK cases of coronavirus fell slightly to 3,634 on Tuesday, from 3,802 the previous day and 5,903 on Sunday.

With the peak of the outbreak is expected to come within days, the government postponed a review into whether the lockdown would be lifted, which was originally set to take place after three weeks.

Speaking at the daily Downing Street press conference, Sir Patrick said contact between people has “reduced dramatically” in recent days due to social distancing, which should lead to a “substantial reduction” of transmission of the virus.

He said there has not been “that big upswing of growth” in cases, adding: “There is a fairly steady increase in numbers. It’s possible that we are beginning to see the beginning of change in terms of the curve flattening a little bit.

“We won’t know that for sure for a week or so. But what we are not seeing is an acceleration.”

Pointing to hospital admissions, Sir Patrick said there had been a “steady increase” since 16 March but “there hasn’t been the accelerated take-off”.

He added: “Again it’s possible that we’re beginning to see the start of a change where we might see numbers flattening off.

“We won’t be sure of that for a week or so and we need to keep looking at it, but it does begin to suggest that things might be moving in the right direction in terms of numbers and it’s important that we carry on with the measures that we have got in place in order to make sure that this does go in the right direction.”

Clinical trials have started to look at treatments that could make a difference, with some 1,900 patients enrolled in trials across 100 hospitals, Sir Patrick said.

The number of intensive beds in NHS hospitals should come in “about right” to cope with the numbers of cases, he added.

His comments came as Boris Johnson was due to spend a second night in intensive care after being transferred to the ICU at St Thomas’ Hospital in London on Monday night.

Foreign secretary Dominic Raab, who is deputising for the prime minister, said Mr Johnson was “a fighter” and he was “confident he will pull through”.

In a tribute to his colleague, Mr Raab told the press conference: “He is not just the prime minister. For all of us in cabinet, he is not just our boss.

“He is also a colleague and he is also our friend. So all our thoughts and prayers are with the prime minister at this time, with Carrie (Symonds, the PM’s fiancee) and his whole family.

“And I’m confident he will pull through because if there is one thing that I know about this prime minister is he is a fighter and he will be back leading us through this crisis in short order.”

Mr Johnson is stable and in good spirits, Mr Raab said, adding that he has not needed a ventilator but he is being monitored closely by doctors.

Asked whether the government had decided to extend the lockdown, Mr Raab said the worst thing the country could do was “take its foot off the peddle” on social distancing.

He said: “In terms of the review, we are not at that stage yet. We will take any decision when the time is right, based on the facts and the scientific and medical advice.”

Mr Raab urged people to stay at home over the bank holiday weekend and to continue adhering to the social distancing guidance.​

“The worst thing now would be to take our foot off the peddle, to ease up on that and risk losing the gains that have been made,” he said.

Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk