Boris Johnson is risking a new spike of coronavirus cases by easing lockdown at a time when his test and trace system may be picking up only a quarter of cases of the disease, an independent group of scientists has warned.
Figures released for the first time on Thursday showed that, in the first week of operation of the NHS programme, just 5,407 people who had tested positive for coronavirus cooperated with the scheme by providing details of individuals they had been in close contact with over the previous few days.
But the Independent Sage group said that surveillance data from the Office for National Statistics suggests that there were at least 23,000 new symptomatic cases during that period – with other people becoming infected without displaying symptoms.
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The government’s own Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies believes that 80 per cent of contacts of symptomatic cases must be found and isolated to stop the virus spreading further.
Just 8,117 people were referred to the test and trace team, led by Conservative peer Dido Harding, in the seven-day period, of whom around one-third either went untraced or refused to supply lists of contacts.
A total of 31,794 contacts were identified, and Baroness Harding’s army of 25,000 tracers managed to reach 26,985 of them – around 85 per cent – to tell them to self-isolate for 14 days in case they were themselves infected and in danger of spreading the disease further.
The figures were released as the official UK death toll from Covid-19 reached 41,279, with 151 new fatalities recorded on Wednesday, and the total number of confirmed cases over the course of the outbreak stood at 291,409.
Lady Harding herself admitted the test and trace operation was “not gold standard” and issued a plea to members of the public to get themselves tested if they have any suspicion they may have contracted Covid, in order that their contacts can be traced and isolated.
Health secretary Matt Hancock insisted that the system’s performance in its first week, from 28 May to 3 June, “beat my expectations”, giving him confidence it would eventually become the “world-beating” programme promised by Mr Johnson. He urged the public to do their “civic duty” and cooperate with the scheme, saying: “Please do it to protect your loved ones. Do it to protect your community. Do it to protect the nation.”
But the Independent Sage group of scientists and academics who have not been invited on to the government’s advisory panel, warned that the numbers of people contacted was “well below what is required to manage the spread of the virus”.
The group’s chair, former government chief scientific adviser Sir David King, said: “It is of course reasonable to expect that the first week of a new programme like this will have teething problems however these figures are alarming.
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“What is of particular concern is that we are continuing to see the country coming out of lockdown before a fit-for-purpose – let alone world-beating – test, track and trace system is up and running.”
The independent group this week launched proposals to switch the centralised system, contracted out to private companies, for a local scheme drawing on the expertise of council and NHS professionals – and crucially offering practical and financial support as an incentive for contacts to cooperate with the request to stay at home.
The new figures confirmed that the current programme is “not fit for purpose”, they warned, adding: “The system is still in its infancy and, as currently constituted, is not ready to support the current wider relaxation of the lockdown rules. This risks future spikes if not addressed urgently.”
Lady Harding said she was encouraged that the “vast majority” of contacts who spoke to tracers were willing to go into self-isolation, with some thanking callers for alerting them to the fact that they were now a risk to family and workmates.
She was unable to say how many of the 4,809 contacts who did not agree to self-isolate had actually refused to do so, and how many did not respond to messages or simply could not be found.
“We are not yet at the gold standard where we want to be, isolating all contacts within 48 hours of someone requesting a test, but you can absolutely see the path of how we get there,” she said.
“It’s early days, but it’s encouraging that we are able to reach contacts and able to reach them reasonably quickly. I think we are where we said we would be. We have a functioning service.”
Lady Harding was unable to say when the NHSX app, designed to automatically identify contacts and being trialled in the Isle of Wight, would come into operation nationwide.
But she insisted it was not essential to the test and trace programme, telling reporters: “I have repeatedly said this is the cherry on the cake, not the cake itself. And what you’re seeing today is the baking of the cake is going reasonably well.”
And Mr Hancock appeared to throw further doubt on the introduction of the app, which was initially presented as an integral part of a test, track and trace system to be in place by the start of June.
“We’ll bring it in when it’s right to do so,” he told the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing. “As we launched NHS Test and Trace, we were clear we wanted to embed this system and get confidence that people are following the advice that’s given by human beings before introducing the technological element. And that remains the case.”
The health secretary did not rule out sanctions for people refusing to self-isolate when contacted by tracers, but said: “We don’t think we need it at the moment.
“What we’ve got to do is keep seeing those numbers go up – the numbers of people in the system and the proportion that we get to – because we think that is the best way forward.”
Figures released by the Department of Health showed that during the first week of test and trace, the majority (79 per cent) of infected people with whom the tracers made contact were reached within 24 hours of being identified, with a further 14 per cent between 24 and 48 hours and 3 per cent between 48 and 72 hours, while the others took longer to find.
Of the 26,985 contacts who were successfully asked to self-isolate, 85 per cent were reached within 24 hours, 10 per cent in 24 to 48 hours, 3 per cent in 48 to 72 hours.
Quick tracing is regarded as vital to the system, as it allows potentially infected people to be taken out of circulation before they have the opportunity to pass the contagion on.
Asked for her assessment of the test and trace system, Lady Harding said: “Is it perfect? No. Is there stuff we need to do better? Yes. But it is absolutely fit for purpose and it will get better.”
