Boris Johnson’s government has given Greater Manchester a deadline of noon on Tuesday to reach agreement on tighter coronavirus restrictions for the city.
In the clearest signal yet that the government is preparing to impose tier 3 measures against the will of local leaders, communities secretary Robert Jenrick said that if the deadline passed without a deal he would have to inform the prime minister that no agreement had been reached.
Meanwhile, there were indications that Mr Johnson hopes of getting local approval for tougher measures in South Yorkshire were running into difficulties, as Sheffield metro mayor Dan Jarvis said the government had not yet offered sufficient support.
Mr Jarvis said: “Our council leaders and I stand ready to work with the government, but they have to offer the support we need to protect lives and livelihoods in South Yorkshire. They haven’t done that yet.”
The new deadline came as the government warned that intensive care units (ICUs) in Greater Manchester could be overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases by 12 November, even if hospitals use all the surge capacity available to them.
And a 17-day “firebreak” lockdown was announced in Wales, where all non-essential retail, leisure, hospitality and tourism businesses will close and residents will be required to stay at home form 6pm on Friday until 9 November.
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said the move would provide a “short, sharp, shock to turn back the clock, slow down the virus and give us more time”.
Latest figures showed 18,804 positive tests and 80 deaths due to coronavirus were recorded across the UK in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday.
Talks over the PM’s plans for Greater Manchester to join Liverpool and Lancashire on the toughest level of local restrictions were halted without agreement earlier on Monday as the government refused to give ground on financial support sought by mayor Andy Burnham.
In a letter to the prime minister, Mr Burnham said he was “disappointed” that Mr Jenrick appeared to rule out proposals which had received a positive response from officials earlier in the day. Greater Manchester officials were understood to have been surprised by the cabinet minister bringing the meeting to an “abrupt” end after just an hour.
The issue has been mired in stalemate for the past week, as the Greater Manchester mayor accused the government of treating the north of England as “sacrificial lambs” by demanding controls which would see pubs, bars and other businesses close while refusing to provide the necessary support.
He is seeking furlough payments of 80 per cent of wages for staff whose businesses are forced to close, rather than the 67 per cent on offer from chancellor Rishi Sunak, as well as cash assistance for the self-employed.
In a statement released late on Monday, Mr Jenrick said: “The deteriorating public health situation in Greater Manchester means that we need to take action urgently.
“We have held discussions in good faith with local leaders for 10 days in order to ensure that the measures put in place were tailored to the local community. We have offered an extensive package of support for local people and businesses, proportionate to the approach we have taken in the Liverpool City Region and Lancashire and in addition to the wider national support.
“There are now more Covid-19 patients in Greater Manchester hospitals than in the whole of the southwest and southeast combined. But, unfortunately, despite recognising the gravity of the situation, local leaders have been so far unwilling to take the action that is required to get this situation under control.
“I have written to local leaders this evening to make clear that if we cannot reach agreement by midday tomorrow then I must advise the prime minister that despite our best endeavours we’ve been unable to reach agreement. It’s not too late for local leaders to work with us to take action for the sake of the people of Greater Manchester.”
Mr Johnson has repeatedly said that he wants to move Manchester into the toughest tier of his regional alert system with the co-operation of local leaders, but is ready to overrule them if agreement cannot be reached.
Downing Street described the failure to reach agreement as “disappointing” but refused to say whether the prime minister was now poised to intervene, saying only that the government was “considering next steps”.
Greater Manchester sources said that the city’s leaders were “ready to continue to work with the government to find a resolution”.
Mr Burnham has pointed to signs that positive tests have been levelling off in a number of Greater Manchester council areas in recent days as a sign that the existing restrictions in the city are having an effect on infection rates.
But Downing Street responded by highlighting the rise in positive cases involving the more vulnerable over-60 age-group, which trebled in 15 days from 89 per 100,000 population on 27 September to 282 on 12 October.
Numbers of Covid-19 patients in ICUs in the city have reached 40 per cent of the level at the height of the first wave in the spring and the number is expected to rise “significantly” over the coming weeks, said Mr Johnson’s official spokesman.
On the “best case” assumption of the government’s scientific advisers, the city’s ICU capacity can be expected to be used up by 28 October, he said.
By 2 November, ICU occupancy by coronavirus patients would outstrip the peak of the first wave and by 8 November, Covid patients alone would entirely fill ICU beds.
Even if hospital managers implement “surge” measures to free up more intensive care beds for coronavirus patients, capacity will be reached by 12 November, said the PM’s spokesman, though this does not include spaces in Manchester’s Nightingale field hospital, which has been put on standby.
The Health Service Journal said that Greater Manchester’s hospitals had seen a new surge in coronavirus patients over the last 24 hours, with numbers of occupied beds rising from just over 500 to around 650 – around 11 per cent of normal bed capacity.
At the peak of the first wave, just over 1,000 beds were occupied by Covid-positive patients.
Health secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons that the government was “working hard to reach an agreement in Greater Manchester and doing everything in our power to suppress the virus, support the economy, support and education and protect the NHS until a vaccine is available”.
He told MPs: “That is the right strategy – charting a path that allows for the greatest economic and social freedom while protecting life.”
In a rebuke to those resisting tighter restrictions, Mr Hancock said that allowing the virus to run free would be “simply unethical”.
“I know that this is difficult and I know that it is relentless, but we must have resolve and see this through and never stop striving to support the science that will one day make us safe,” he said.
Mr Hancock said that talks would continue later this week with civic leaders in West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the northeast and Teesside on the possibility of moving the areas up from the middle “high alert” second tier to tier 3 restrictions.
