The chance of a trade deal with the EU is “less than 50 per cent”, Cabinet minister Michael Gove has said.
Mr Gove has previously put the likelihood of a deal at 66 per cent, and his gloomier assessment chimes with prime minister Boris Johnson’s recent warnings that a no-deal Brexit is the most likely outcome of negotiations.
The Cabinet Office minister, who has a leading role in the Brexit process, ruled out any return to the negotiating table if the UK passes the 1 January deadline without a deal and is forced onto World Trade Organisation terms.
He told the House of Commons Committee on Future Relations with the EU: “The view has been expressed that, if there was no agreement by 31 December, we would go back to the negotiating table in a month, two months’ or three months’ time.”
But he insisted that in fact: “That would be it. We would have left on WTO terms.
“It’s still the case, of course, that there would be contact between the UK and European nations and politicians, as you would expect.
“But what we would not be doing is attempting to negotiate a new deal.”
Asked what likelihood there was of a deal being struck by Sunday – identified by the European Parliament as the final deadline for a free trade agreement to be ratified by the end of 2020 – Mr Gove made clear that the chances had slipped since October, when he put them at 66 per cent.
He told MPs: “I think at the moment … regrettably, the chances are more likely that we won’t secure an agreement, so at the moment less than 50 per cent.”
