A no-deal Brexit looms larger than ever after both the EU and UK said an agreement is “unlikely” and vowed not to blink in the few months left for talks.
The latest round of negotiations broke up in now-familiar acrimony, forcing Boris Johnson to admit to missing his deadline for a breakthrough by the end of July.
In a blistering attack, Michel Barnier, the EU chief negotiator, warned attempts to bludgeon Brussels with “ultimatums or threats” would fail, adding: “I don’t think we’ve got time for these games.”
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He told a press conference: “By its current refusal to commit to the condition of open and fair competition, and to a balanced agreement on fisheries, the UK makes a trade agreement at this point unlikely.”
A senior UK government source later agreed that was an accurate description of the stalemate, but insisted a deal would only be struck if the EU gave up on its red lines.
“The question is can they adapt their position to recognise that they are negotiating with an independent state?” the source said.
It emphasised how – despite both sides saying a deal is still possible in September – the fundamental differences between them have not been bridged.
Without a deal, the UK will crash out of the transition period, at the end of December, into chaos for traders, travellers and security co-operation – threatening a fresh economic slump.
Mr Barnier pointed to “no progress” in two key areas, the first being the UK’s refusal to guarantee “level playing field” rules for workers and the environment and set out its state aid demands.
1/20 Britain votes to leave the European Union – 23 June 2016
A referendum is held on Britain’s membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving
AFP via Getty
2/20 David Cameron resigns – 24 June 2016
David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU
Getty
3/20 Theresa May takes the reins – 13 July 2016
Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out
Getty
4/20 High Court rules parliament must vote on Brexit – November 2016 – 3 November 2016
The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process
5/20 Article 50 triggered – 28 March 2017
The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum
Getty
6/20 May calls snap election – 18 April 2018
Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country
Getty
7/20 May loses majority as Labour makes surprise gain – 8 June 2017
After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily
AFP/Getty
8/20 Negotiations begin – 19 June 2017
David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point
AFP/Getty
9/20 MPs vote that withdrawal deal must be ratified by parliament – 13 December 2017
The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal
10/20 Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary – 11 July 2018
Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary
Reuters
11/20 Draft withdrawal agreement – 15 November 2018
The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain’s divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest
Getty
12/20 May resigns – 24 May 2019
After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns
Reuters
13/20 Johnson takes over – 24 July 2019
Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government
Getty
14/20 Parliament prorogued – 28 August 2019
Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK’s agreed departure date of 31 October.
Stephen Morgan MP
15/20 Prorogation ruled unlawful – 24 September 2019
The High Court rules that Johnson’s prorogation of parliament is ‘unlawful’ after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller
Getty
16/20 Johnson agrees deal with Varadkar – October
Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar – making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers
Getty
17/20 Final Say march demands second referendum – 19 October 2019
As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum
Getty
18/20 Johnson wins 80 seat majority – 12 December 2019
The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda
Getty
19/20 Withdrawal deal passes parliament – 20 December 2019
The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124
Getty
20/20 EU parliament backs UK withdrawal deal – 29 January 2020
Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain’s departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne
AFP/Getty
1/20 Britain votes to leave the European Union – 23 June 2016
A referendum is held on Britain’s membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving
AFP via Getty
2/20 David Cameron resigns – 24 June 2016
David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU
Getty
3/20 Theresa May takes the reins – 13 July 2016
Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out
Getty
4/20 High Court rules parliament must vote on Brexit – November 2016 – 3 November 2016
The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process
5/20 Article 50 triggered – 28 March 2017
The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum
Getty
6/20 May calls snap election – 18 April 2018
Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country
Getty
7/20 May loses majority as Labour makes surprise gain – 8 June 2017
After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily
AFP/Getty
8/20 Negotiations begin – 19 June 2017
David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point
AFP/Getty
9/20 MPs vote that withdrawal deal must be ratified by parliament – 13 December 2017
The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal
10/20 Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary – 11 July 2018
Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary
Reuters
11/20 Draft withdrawal agreement – 15 November 2018
The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain’s divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest
Getty
12/20 May resigns – 24 May 2019
After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns
Reuters
13/20 Johnson takes over – 24 July 2019
Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government
Getty
14/20 Parliament prorogued – 28 August 2019
Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK’s agreed departure date of 31 October.
Stephen Morgan MP
15/20 Prorogation ruled unlawful – 24 September 2019
The High Court rules that Johnson’s prorogation of parliament is ‘unlawful’ after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller
Getty
16/20 Johnson agrees deal with Varadkar – October
Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar – making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers
Getty
17/20 Final Say march demands second referendum – 19 October 2019
As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum
Getty
18/20 Johnson wins 80 seat majority – 12 December 2019
The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda
Getty
19/20 Withdrawal deal passes parliament – 20 December 2019
The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124
Getty
20/20 EU parliament backs UK withdrawal deal – 29 January 2020
Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain’s departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne
AFP/Getty
Secondly, on fishing rights, he branded the UK’s position “simply unacceptable”, saying: “The UK is effectively seeking for near-total exclusion of fishing vessels from the UK’s water.”
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Insisting the EU was engaging, he claimed: “The UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU fundamental principles and interests.”
But the UK source vowed there would be no concessions in either area, saying, on state aid: “We are not going to pre-commit to a particular regime, that’s just not how we are going to do things.”
On fish, the source added: “We will have right to patrol the economic exploitation of our fishing grounds and we will set the terms on which that is done.”
While that did not “require exclusion”, the EU had to agree to UK “control”. The source said: “Until they do, it is going to be difficult to get a fisheries agreement.”
The EU has pencilled in a summit on 15-16 October as a possible deadline, given the need to draft and agree a long legal text which must also be ratified by the European parliament.
Notably, Mr Barnier said the EU was armed with a €5bn contingency fund for a no deal, implying it would be the UK that would suffer more.
Nevertheless, there was some progress on a third stumbling block – on the future role of the European Court of Justice – where the UK appeared to have given ground.
Mr Barnier is in London again next week, after which both sides will take a short holiday and prepare for the next formal round of negotiations from 17 August.
