There has been some limited progress in Brexit talks, but still no wholesale breakthrough – as negotiators meet again in Brussels on Monday for a final push to avoid no-deal.
The EU’s Michel Barnier reportedly painted a pessimistic picture of negotiations to member state ambassadors in a meeting on Monday morning, following a decision by London and Brussels not to pull the plug on discussions.
Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday decided to scrap a mooted deadline for ending the talks and “go the extra mile”, but progress has been far from stunning.
A senior EU diplomat said there had been some limited progress on issues like how the deal could be enforced, but still mutual disagreement on state aid – and even “backtracking” on fisheries.
The deadline for the European Parliament to ratify any agreement has now long since passed, but officials are still hopeful a free trade agreement could be applied on a “provisional” basis to avoid a no-deal on 31 December.
Ahead of the resumption of talks, Mr Barnier said: “It is our responsibility to give the talks every chance of success. Never before has such a comprehensive agreement – trade, energy, fisheries, transport, police and judicial cooperation, etc – been negotiated so transparently and in such little time.
“The next few days are important, if an EU-UK is to be in place on 1 January 2021. Fair competition, and a sustainable solution for our fishermen and women, are key to reaching a deal.”
Following a briefing by Mr Barnier to member states, a senior EU diplomat told the Reuters news agency that the chief negotiator was “guarded” on progress, while another summarised the meeting as: “Patient still alive … but keep the undertaker on speed dial.”
One key question under discussion is whether trade tariffs should be automatically imposed on Britain or the EU if either side breaches guarantees to maintain high standards in areas like labour rights and environmental protections.
The EU has been insisting on a so-called “ratchet” clause that would require both sides to progressively upgrade their rules independently, or face tariffs, while the UK wants simple “non-regression” clauses that would mean its rules could not be weakened from what they are now.
EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels on Monday
(EPA)
Diplomats say the bloc’s stance on the issue has softened in the most recent talks, but that it is not yet clear what a “ratchet” would be replaced with.
Even if the so-called “level playing field” can be resolved, both sides also need to agree the politically-fraught issue of fishing access.
Nathalie Loiseau, a senior French MEP and a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, said ahead of negotiations resuming that she was “sceptical” a deal could be reached, but that it was worth trying.
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“I’m not sure that ‘optimism’ is the word most appropriate, but commitment? Yes, we will try to find an agreement,” she told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“If there is any chance to find a deal, we will not let it go. Still, I am somewhat sceptical, as we are still far apart on important issues.”
Alok Sharma, the UK’s business secretary, told the same programme: “We have decided to carry on these discussions, we don’t want to walk away from them as long as there is an opportunity to reach this Canada-style deal that we have always said we would like to do.
“Businesses and people in this country will want us to go the extra mile … we’ve always said all along that any deal that do has to respect the fact that we’re a sovereign and independent nation.”
Official forecasts predict no deal will swipe £40bn from the UK economy next year, putting 300,000 people out of work, with warnings of border chaos and higher food prices.
