Government scientific advisers have suggested evidence on how likely children are to transmit coronavirus remains “inconclusive” – just days before the government plans to partially reopen primary schools.
It comes after ministers have come under increasing pressure from teachers, unions and local authorities to reconsider the proposals to gradually ease the Covid-19 lockdown by bringing more pupils back into primary schools in England.
In an address to the nation on 10 May, Boris Johnson said pupils in reception, year one and year six would be the first groups to return to school under phase two of the government’s relaxation of coronavirus restrictions.
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Publishing modelling on Friday concerning the reopening of schools, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said that on the “balance of evidence” the infection rate among children may be lower than in adults, but added “the evidence remains inconclusive on both the susceptibility and infectivity of children”.
Wider contextual issues – including whether families have black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) members – must be taken into account when assessing the impact of relaxing school closures on transmission, the scientists added.
They said that teachers do not appear to be at a greater risk of catching Covid-19 than other professions – but there is still some risk if schools reopen. The Sage papers suggest that younger teachers’ attendance in schools could be prioritised in order to decrease the likelihood of infection for school staff in more vulnerable groups.
The advisers added: “As other countries start relaxing school closures and evidence starts to build, it will be important to use the collective insights gained to inform more detailed modelling and understanding of public responses to proposed scenarios.”
The analysis follows a warning from an independent group of scientists – set up to shadow Sage – that it is “not safe” to reopen schools on 1 June without contract tracing and evidence of low levels of coronavirus infections at a local level.
In a report published on Friday, the Independent Sage group, led by Sir David King, said: “We believe that decisions on schools opening should be guided by evidence of low levels of Covid-19 infections in the community and the ability to rapidly respond to new infections through a local test, track and isolate strategy.”
Insisting that decisions to re-open schools should also be made at a local level, they added: “There is no clear evidence that these conditions are met. Until they are it is not safe to open schools on 1 June.
“To ensure that any local outbreaks are quickly spotted and contained, we strongly recommend that local test, track and isolate programmes are in place and tested before schools re-open.”
