Lifting lockdown measures now in England risks a second wave of coronavirus during the winter, a former chief scientific adviser to the government has warned.
“I think it’s extraordinarily risky,” Sir David King told Sky News.
“If we take the long view we know that the winter is a likely period when the virus takes off again. We must therefore aim to completely get rid of the virus from this country before the winter.”
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His warning came a day after Boris Johnson announced the most significant relaxation of the Covid-19 lockdown so far, telling the public that pubs, cinemas, hairdressers and restaurants will reopen on 4 July, and that the two-metre rule will be eased.
Unveiling the easing of restrictions that were imposed in March, the prime minister said “our long national hibernation” was coming to an end, but his chief scientific adviser made clear at the No 10 coronavirus press conference the package of measures was “not risk free”.
“If we move too quickly, which is what I think is being proposed here, the risk of running into a second wave becomes very significant,” Sir David said on Wednesday.
“We have done such a good job in this country, we the public, in staying at home, if we could only be a little more patient. I don’t think there’s anyone who can believe from the scientific point of view that this a wise move.
“We really need to get the number of infections down, and we must have a find, test, trace, isolate and support system.
Pressed on the economic impact of maintaining the lockdown, he continued: “In terms of the development of this epidemic, we went into lockdown much later than every other country, except one or two where the virus is taking off very crudely right now.
“The reason its taking us longer to come out of lockdown is simply because we had a much greater infectivity rate in the population. If we follow Germany and Spain and Italy in coming out of lockdown too quickly because we see them coming out of lockdown, we risk severely seeing another wave.”
Sir David was speaking as health leaders called for an urgent review to ensure the UK is prepared for the “real risk” of a second wave.
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In an open letter to the leaders of all the UK political parties published in the British Medical Journal, the health leaders call for a “rapid and forward-looking assessment” of the state of national preparedness in the event of a renewed flare-up.
“While the future shape of the pandemic in the UK is hard to predict, the available evidence indicates that local flare ups are increasingly likely and a second wave a real risk,” they said.
The letter continued: “Many elements of the infrastructure needed to contain the virus are beginning to be put in place, but substantial challenges remain.
“The job now is not only to deal urgently with the wide-ranging impacts of the first phase of the pandemic, but to ensure that the country is adequately prepared to contain a second phase.”
In response to Sir David’s comments, a Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We have been clear that we will continue to be guided by the latest scientific advice and will give the NHS whatever it needs, as we have done throughout this unprecedented pandemic.
“Thanks to the dedication of NHS staff, hospitals have not been overwhelmed and intensive care capacity continues to meet the needs of patients.
“Effective local management of any outbreak is the first line of protection against a second wave. In the event the local response is not sufficient to contain outbreaks, the Government would reintroduce measures if necessary to contain the virus and stop it spreading to the wider population.”
