The UK is on course for another 30,000 deaths by the first anniversary of the coronavirus pandemic unless Boris Johnson changes strategy, independent experts are warning.
A sharp drop in infections has already stalled, they say – with Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, having suggested they could stay at around 3,000 a day for nine more months, they argued.
“If we carry on with 100 to 150 deaths a day, that’s over 30,000 deaths,” warned Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London.
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The professor is a member of the Independent Sage group of scientists, which has sharply criticised the government for lifting lockdown restrictions too early, before Covid-19 has been conquered.
In a new analysis, it said so-called ‘Super Saturday’ on 4 July – when pubs, restaurants and cultural venues can reopen – would arrive before the country was ready for the “risk” it poses.
“We are adding a lot of risk all at once in the context of infections not reducing anymore and test-and-trace not fully functioning,” Professor Pagel warned.
“They are sending a message that the pandemic is over – and it’s not over.”
Pointing a “massive surge” in cases in US and a leap in Germany, after curbs were lifted, she added: “I am worried that we will be in a situation here where we don’t spot these increases until it’s too late.”
David King, the former chief scientific adviser, urge venues to impose their own restrictions, saying: “I would ask publicans only to serve people outdoors.
And Gabriel Scally, professor of public health at University of Bristol, urged the prime minister to come up with a clear strategy “for next 9 months”, by the end of the summer.
“That’s what the people of this country deserve – we can’t go on with uncertainty and hoping things will be alright,” he argued.
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The UK is emerging from “our long national hibernation”, as Mr Johnson put it, with infections at a much higher level than other EU countries which are unlocking.
Independent Sage warned that:
* A “steady decline in new cases since April has stopped” – with 2,000-4,000 new infections each day still.
* The test-and trace system was only catching and obtaining contacts from about one third of people with symptoms.
* It was also failing to provide any data on how many people contacted are isolating –or how many go on to develop symptoms and get tested.
The number of UK fatalities passed 50,000 at the start of the month, the third highest in the world behind only the US and Brazil, although international counting methods do vary.
Independent Sage was set up by Sir David amid criticism that the official Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies is not transparent and does not reflect the breadth of expertise.
