A Conservative grandee has warned that Boris Johnson faces a “dangerous moment” in his premiership after the party suffered a historic defeat in the North Shropshire by-election after weeks of rows at the top of government on multiple fronts.
Sir Malcolm Rifkind – who served as foreign secretary under John Major – told The Independent that while an immediate challenge to the prime minister’s position was unlikely, it was a “serious proposition” that he could be losing the support of MPs.
“It’s a small step for mankind and a rather great leap for Boris Johnson,” Sir Malcolm said of the by-election loss. “It’s the first time for 200 years the seat has not returned a Tory MP.
“It’s not unprecedented – you have these by-election dramas – but I think what makes it more significant on this occasion is that it is very difficult to escape the view that this was part of public dissatisfaction with not just the government as a whole, but with the prime minister, in particular over recent controversies.”
His assessment came as Mr Johnson suffered a “severe blow” in North Shropshire – a seat held by the Conservatives since 1832 – where a by-election was triggered after the government’s botched attempt to prevent Owen Paterson’s suspension.
After the Liberal Democrats stormed to victory and overturned a 23,000 Tory majority in the Leave-voting seat, one senior Conservative MP, Sir Roger Gale, said the result must be “seen as a referendum on the prime minister’s performance”, adding: “One more strike and he’s out.”
In an attempt to alleviate discontent in the party’s ranks on Friday, the prime minister said he accepted personal responsibility for the defeat and admitted he needed to “fix” the way his government operates, but also attempted to blame the media after weeks of focus on Covid rule-breaking gatherings in No 10, allegations of sleaze, and a damaging Tory rebellion.
Sir Malcolm told The Independent: “He’s facing a dangerous moment, but I don’t think it’s irreversible. There are not going to be demands for him to step down next week, or next month, or whatever. But it has become a serious proposition that the prime minister might be losing the confidence of his parliamentary colleagues.”
The former cabinet minister, who also held posts during Margaret Thatcher’s premiership, added: “The Tory party has a ruthless reputation when it comes to their judgement that a prime minister has become more of a liability than an asset.”
Sir Malcolm went on: “The idea of forcing prime ministers to step down is a very dramatic, radical decision, and you only do it if you have no alternative, and I don’t think we’re there yet.
“In addition to that, there’s no obvious successor waiting in the wings with all the experience required; there are several very good potential candidates, but … it’s not as if someone is an obvious alternative and meets all the necessary, expected requirements.”
His comments were echoed on Friday by Baroness Davidson, the former leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, who said that there was no “natural successor” and that Tory MPs were not yet ready to declare no confidence in the prime minister in large numbers, but warned that he was “drinking in the last-chance saloon”.
Lady Davidson added: “The party is looking for a bit of bloody grip to be exerted, and if they see that they might hold off, but I think the prime minister has been put on warning by his MPs. They are tired of the constant drama coming out of No 10 and the No 11 flat.
“What they are looking for is a more sober prime minister that is going to get on with the job and have less of the drama around what he does.”
The former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith called for an overhaul of the No 10 team, but urged his colleagues to “stop playing games” and to “get behind” Mr Johnson.
He told the BBC: “The prime minister just needs to show us really strongly that he not just disapproved, but he’s prepared to get rid of people who are breaking those rules, so he can move on.
“He needs to be out front as the great political salesman, not bogged down having to apologise and to find out what’s going on. That is never good for any leader, no matter … how good they are. But he needs to be upfront.”
