Keir Starmer’s immediate future as Labour leader could be “safe”, even if the party suffers another historical defeat at a crucial by-election, due to a lack of “unity” around any potential replacement, MPs have suggested.
With polls pointing towards a second rare victory for an incumbent government in under two months and Labour insiders increasingly downbeat about Labour’s prospects in Batley and Spen, speculation has inevitably turned to questions over Sir Keir’s leadership.
The co-chair of the left-wing group Momentum told The Independent that the Labour leader had been an “utter failure” and suggested he should “consider resigning” if the party loses control of the seat for the first time since 1997.
In a further sign of how acrimonious relations between the left and Labour’s high command have become of late, one MP remarked Sir Keir would become a “lame duck” leader if he endures another defeat at the ballot box in under two months.
But senior figures on the left also played down the prospect of any imminent challenge to Sir Keir’s leadership, pointing to the absence of a candidate to rally around, or one being able to gather the required number of 40 MPs to kick-start a challenge.
It was also claimed the recent shake-up of the Labour leader’s backroom operation at Westminster, including the influential positions of chief-of-staff and director of communications, may be used in an attempt “placate” frustrated MPs as evidence of the party taking a fresh approach later this week.
Diane Abbott – a key figure during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership – told The Independent that MPs had “obviously discussed what happens if we lose Batley and Spen”.
“People are talking about Starmer’s position,” she said. “But the thing which that makes him safe, I think, is the question of who we would replace him with.
“There’s no resolution on that, whether from the left of from the sort of erstwhile Blairites, so my guess would be that even if we lose Batley and Spen, Starmer remains secure for the time being.”
Pressed on what discussions had taken place, the former shadow cabinet minister said: “Well, we can all see the polls. Some of us have been up there and seen and heard the response. Who does Starmer appeal to? He doesn’t appeal to the sort of soft Tory vote in places like Chesham and Amersham.
“He didn’t appeal to hardcore Labour supporters in Hartlepool, so the question is, what is his electoral base and who does he appeal to? If he’s too grey a character to appeal to anybody, is his position sustainable? But, as I say, there’s no unity on who should replace him.”
Ms Abbott added that various names had come up, but suggested the “strongest name” was the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. “But he’s not an MP, so he’s not a short-term proposition,” she added.
“The obvious names have come up, Angela Rayner, obviously, but you wouldn’t necessarily get unity around Angela Rayner at this point. That’s why I think even if we lose Batley and Spen, Starmer can carry on.”
Another MP on the left agreed there was a lack of unity around any potential candidate, but also suggested Sir Keir would be in a “dangerous” position if he lost the election, saying: “There will be a large number of MPs who will look at that result and think to themselves, ‘on the current trajectory I’m going to lose my seat’.
“His authority in the party will diminish, so even if there isn’t a political outrider, for the next two years he’s going to be a lame duck leader.”
A second senior MP said: “I don’t think there will be a challenge, however, the disaffection will continue to grow. I think he has got a sense of shame and will have to think very, very carefully about his leadership.”
Andrew Scattergood, the co-chair of the Momentum group set up to support the left-wing policies of the Corbyn leadership, suggested another defeat in the wake of recent defeats in Hartlepool and Chesham & Amersham would signal “Sir Keir’s leadership in its entirety has been an utter failure”.
“I think that is on the back of a by-election defeat previously, I think that is on not showing proper opposition to the Tory party throughout his leadership,” he said. “I think it’s also an example of failed leadership in the way he’s treating the members and I think that signals the final failure that should be sort of allowed as Labour leader.”
Asked whether he believed Sir Keir should resign, he replied: “If they lose the by-election he should seriously consider his position and consider resigning.
“Everything is pointing towards Labour certainly not doing well at the next general election. I think it’s time that Labour had an overhaul of where they stand and the policies and politics this country and broader need in the post-pandemic world that we will sooner or later be entering.
“At the minute there are no signs and there is no confidence from me in Starmer being able to come up with the answers and the policies, not only to change people’s lives, but to prove successful at the ballot box.”
Frustration over the Labour leader’s performance, however, isn’t confined to the left of the party. Speaking at an event hosted by The Independent last week, the Labour peer Lord Adonis suggested that a change in leadership may not be “long in coming”, stressing: “There’s a limit to how much failure even the Labour Party can take.
“The thing to understand about Labour in the past is that, though it’s true that we’ve been very good at keeping leaders who lose elections, in mid-term they have generally looked as if they could win,” he said.
“It’s important to understand that. They’ve been winning by-elections, ahead in the polls. That’s true even of Ed Miliband and, of course, remember that Jeremy Corbyn did well in the 2017 election and that made people think he may be able to pull another rabbit out of the bag. The issue for Keir, and we’re all hoping that we hold the Batley and Spen by-election, but there is a certain dynamic of events there too.”
But offering a defence of Sir Keir, Dame Margaret Beckett, a former deputy leader of the party, dismissed calls for him to resign, saying the current context of the pandemic was a “nightmare for any leader of the opposition” and “worse than under any normal circumstances”.
“People talk about it being unprecedented times for a government. It’s an unprecedented challenge for a leader of the opposition,” she told The Independent.
“It’s absolutely ridiculous, he can’t get anything across, he can’t get himself heard. The prime minister is playing from the Trump playbook, spends all his time going out having his photograph taken, and he’s on the news every night.
“The most difficult thing for any opposition at any time is always to get a hearing and, at the moment, it’s just almost incomparably difficult, and I think in the circumstances he’s doing extremely well.”
Pressed for her thoughts on colleagues suggesting the possibility of a leadership contest, she replied: “If they have any real concerns for the welfare of the British people they should find better things to do with their time.”
On the party’s prospects in the West Yorkshire seat, a Labour source admitted: “It’s very, very tough. The impact of different people coming in, [George] Galloway coming in and other candidates taking pro-Brexit votes in comparison to 2019, is hugely disruptive and frankly it’s looking very, very difficult for us.”
