Tougher Covid restrictions are needed before the new year to prevent “considerable pressure” on the NHS, government scientists have warned Boris Johnson, as rates of the Omicron variant surge.
Documents released on Saturday by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – revealing the bleak advice given to ministers – emerged as the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, declared a “major incident” due to rising infections.
On Saturday, the government’s official dashboard recorded 90,418 cases of Covid in the UK in the last 24 hours, while 900 patients had been admitted to hospital. In the capital, 25,551 infections were recorded in a single day.
But the minutes published from a Sage meeting on Thursday stressed that “it is almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day” – with the highest rates in London – suggesting that the official figures do not reflect the full picture.
The scientists warned that the doubling time of Omicron infections in England was currently around two days – “faster than the growth rate seen in March 2020”.
Modelling by the group suggested that hospitalisations were “likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000” per day by the end of the year. “Many of these will be people who are already infected now, or who become infected in the next days,” they said.
The Sage experts warned: “Without intervention beyond those measures already in place (plan B), modelling indicates a peak of at least 3,000 hospital admissions per day in England. Some scenarios have significantly worse outcomes during the first few months of 2022, but there are many uncertainties.
“If the aim is to reduce the level of infection in the population and prevent hospitalisations reaching these levels, more stringent measures would need to be implemented very soon.”
They added: “The earlier interventions happen, the greater the effect they will have (high confidence). This may also mean that they can be kept in place for a shorter duration.
“Illustrative scenarios from SPI-M-O [the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling] suggest that measures equivalent to those in place in Step 2 or Step 1 of the roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, could substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with plan B alone (medium confidence).
“The timing of such measures is crucial. Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings.”
As concern grows, Mr Johnson’s cabinet received a Covid data briefing on Saturday and Michael Gove is expected to host a Cobra meeting on Sunday alongside the leaders of devolved administrations, who are requesting greater economic support.
It was also reported that officials have been drawing up draft plans for a two-week circuit-breaker after Christmas, which could ban meeting indoors expect for work purposes and limit pubs and restaurants to offering outdoor services only.
A government source, however, played down the prospect of imminent restrictions, and it is understood that the prime minister wants to see further data on the impact of plan B measures, the booster programme, and self-regulated behaviour from members of the public reducing social contacts ahead of Christmas.
But if Mr Johnson decides to impose further restrictions, No 10 will almost certainly have to request a recall of parliament – just days after the prime minister suffered the biggest rebellion of his premiership from backbench Tory MPs on a vote to implement plan B measures.
Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said Mr Johnson “cannot allow his weakened authority within his party to prevent him from taking the decisions that might be necessary to protect public health”, adding that Labour would be “ready to do what is right in the national interest”.
Following the advice published by Sage, the Liberal Democrats also called for the recall of a virtual parliament on Monday “at this time of national crisis”.
Ed Davey, the party’s leader, said: “Throughout the pandemic, Boris Johnson has consistently reacted too late, missed opportunities, and refused to act when the scientists told him to.”
Despite the government’s booster programme, which reached record levels this week, the Sage experts also said that while vaccination is a “critically important mitigation” and will reduce severity, “a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions would be required to slow growth in infections”.
They added that “crowded indoor mixing with many different groups remains the biggest risk factor for spread. Large gatherings present a risk for multiple spreading events.”
Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of Sage, told Times Radio on Saturday that “all the science suggests that [plan B is] not going to be enough”.
He said: “The only way really, or at least the most effective way, we can have an immediate effect is to decrease the number of contacts we have. In many ways, the most effective way of diminishing contact is to have a circuit-breaker.
“Now, you could have it after Christmas; the problem is after Christmas it’s probably too late, it’s probably by then we will have had a huge surge of infections with all the impact upon society.
“When people say ‘Look, we don’t want to close down,’ of course we don’t want to close down. But the problem is, at the moment things are closing down anyway, because of the spread of infection. So I think we need to act now.”
A Downing Street spokesperson said: “The government will continue to look closely at all the emerging data and we’ll keep our measures under review as we learn more about this variant.”
