Polling evidence over the past year suggests that the 2016 Brexitreferendum has failed to deliver a “permanent settlement” to the Brexit debate, polling guru Sir John Curtice has said.
His comments raise the prospect of continuing division in the UK over Europe, with the possibility that the issue will come to dominate future elections or even spark another referendum.
While the UK’s major political parties – with the exception of the SNP – have put the Brexit issue on the back-burner at least until after the 2024 election, surveys show that the public does not regard the debate as over, Prof Curtice told a briefing at Westminster.
Following a brief period in the summer of 2021 when small majorities preferred to stay out of the EU, support for rejoining has grown steadily, with the latest polls showing a majority of 57 to 43 per cent for reversing Brexit.
“If you look at YouGov’s question ‘In hindsight do you think Brexit was the right or wrong decision?’ they’ve increasingly been getting more people saying it was the wrong decision,” he said.
“The truth is that Brexit is now probably less popular than it has been at any point since June 2016.”
Prof Curtice said he would remain “cautious” on the question of whether a definitive shift in public attitudes has taken place until more polling is done over a period stretching at least into 2023.
But he added: “My own personal view, for what it’s worth, is at the moment it looks as though the 2016 referendum is going to be as unsuccessful as the 1975 one was in proving to be a permanent settlement of this debate.
“We are just, as a country, divided down the middle on this subject. And it looks as though we’re going to continue to be o for the foreseeable future.”
