Conservative MPs have warned that the party could split if Boris Johnson returns as leader following the dramatic resignation of Liz Truss after just 45 days as prime minister.
After six weeks of turmoil culminating in her sacking her chancellor and home secretary within days of one another, Ms Truss conceded that she could not “deliver the mandate” on which she was elected.
She will hand over to a new prime minister by 28 October – next Friday – with her departure brought forward to Monday if Tory MPs are able to unite behind a single candidate for leader and avoid the need for a ballot of party members.
Close allies of former chancellor Rishi Sunak told The Independent that he will be on the ballot paper, after missing out to Ms Truss in a vote of around 170,000 members over the summer.
Others expected to join him include leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt and former home secretary Suella Braverman, with speculation also revolving around possible bids by trade secretary Kemi Badenoch or home secretary Grant Shapps. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, foreign secretary James Cleverly and defence secretary Ben Wallace have indicated they will not stand.
Hopefuls must clear the high bar of 100 MPs’ nominations by Monday, meaning no more than three candidates can enter the race, with Tory MPs whittling the number down to two in a vote that day before the final choice goes to members in an online ballot closing on 28 October.
If MPs unite behind a single candidate there will be a “coronation” on Monday. And crucially, there will be an indicative vote by MPs on the final two contenders, so that members have a clear understanding of which candidate commands the support of the parliamentary party.
Ms Truss will remain prime minister until her successor as Conservative leader is chosen.
It was Mr Johnson’s intentions which dominated conversation in the Westminster tearooms, after allies let it be known he was sounding out friends over a return to the leadership.
The former prime minister – who still faces an inquiry into whether he lied to parliament over the Partygate scandal – wants to “finish the job” he started, a key ally said.
The Telegraph quoted a source close to Mr Johnson as saying: “If the Tories are serious about winning in 2024 and want to stop a general election before then they need to revert to the guy with a mandate who is a seasoned campaigner.”
Mr Johnson is expected to fly back on Friday from a Caribbean break and will meet backers for his campaign – led by Jacob Rees-Mogg – on Saturday, the newspaper said.
The prospect of a second Johnson premiership just two months after he gave up the keys to No 10 was cheered by supporters on the Tory benches.
MP Brendan Clarke-Smith said he was “the only person who can dig us out of this mess”, while former culture secretary Nadine Dorries hailed him as “the one person elected by the British public with a manifesto and a mandate until January ’25”.
In a Twitter message to the former premier Conservative MP James Dudderidge said: “I hope you enjoyed your holiday Boris. Time to come back. Few issues at the office that need addressing.”
But veteran backbencher Sir Roger Gale, the first MP to declare he had submitted a letter of no confidence in Johnson, told The Independent: “While he is under investigation for misleading the House, there is no way he should be considered for any government position, never mind prime minister.
“He would be just as divisive as he previously was – we want a unity candidate, not a division candidate.”
Sir Roger said that “quite a few” MPs could be expected to refuse to take the Tory whip if Johnson returned.
And another backbencher said he knew of at least one colleague who would cross the floor to Labour rather than serve under Johnson.
Meanwhile, former cabinet minister David Davis said that “a lot of people would be worried about the party” if the ex-PM returned.
He told The Independent: “We want credibility in the markets. Is he going to give us that? We want the technical capability to fix the health service. Is he going to give us that? We want to draw on talent from across the party. Having appointed a very narrow cabinet, is he going to give us that?”
The hastily rewritten rules for the breakneck leadership battle seemed designed to make a Johnson candidacy difficult, with the 100-nomination requirement far higher than the threshold of 20 which produced a field of eight in July.
Supporters were confident they could secure 60-70 nominations on the argument that only Mr Johnson can save Tory seats in the general election. But many MPs – including a substantial number in the so-called Red Wall seats of the Midlands and North – fear that the former PM remains toxic to constituents.
One former member of Johnson’s inner circle told The Independent: “My instinct is he will only run if he can get to the final two. If I know Boris, the one thing I can say is he hates losing. I think he knows he can’t do it, so he won’t stand.”
Ms Truss’s resignation will make her the shortest-serving prime minister in UK political history, at no more than 53 days – less than half the previous record of 119 days set by George Canning when he died in office.
She informed King Charles III of her intention to go in a phone call on Thursday morning, 45 days after visiting Queen Elizabeth II at Balmoral to be invited to form a government.
It came after a day of chaos on Wednesday, when she sacked Ms Braverman as home secretary, suspended a key aide for alleged negative briefings and then had to beg Wendy Morton to stay on as chief whip following a botched vote on fracking.
Speaking at a lectern in Downing Street after holding talks with Tory grandees, she said that she had come into office “at a time of great economic and international instability” due to the cost of living and Ukraine war.
With her husband Hugh beside her, she said she had “delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance (and) set out a vision for a low tax, high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit”.
But she added: “I recognise though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party.”
An instant poll by Savanta ComRes found that 84 per cent of voters thought Ms Truss was right to resign and 47 per cent rated her the worst PM of the last 25 years – ahead of 20 per cent naming Mr Johnson and 9 per cent Tony Blair.
Mr Johnson was the favourite successor among Tory voters, with 41 per cent backing him. But Mr Sunak led among voters as a whole, and more than half of those questioned (51 per cent) said it was right for Johnson to step down in the summer.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer issued a demand for an immediate election once a new Tory leader is in place.
“The Conservative Party has shown it no longer has a mandate to govern.,” he said. “After 12 years of Tory failure, the British people deserve so much better than this revolving door of chaos.”
And Tory MPs – at least 16 of whom had called publicly for Truss’s removal – were quick to push forward the claims of their preferred candidates.
Isle of Wight MP Bob Seely hailed Ms Mordaunt as “somebody with stature, with government experience, who can resonate with people”.
Former Cabinet minister Simon Hart said it was “no time for experiments; no time for frivolity – this means choosing someone serious, tested, competent and kind. For me that’s Rishi Sunak.”
Senior backbencher Robert Halfon warned that it was “the last chance for the government”, adding: “Whoever becomes leader must work to win back the trust of the public.”
