Boris Johnson is facing one of the most politically perilous moments of his premiership, as he continues to come under intense scrutiny over his own involvement in a No 10 drinks party held in the midst of England’s first national lockdown.
The prime minister has sidestepped questions over whether he attended the event on the 20 May, 2020, after an explosive email provided evidence that over 100 Downing Street staff were invited to attend and to “bring your own booze”.
No 10 has also stonewalled questions over the party — pointing to the Whitehall investigation led by the senior civil servant Sue Gray into rule-breaking events — but anger is growing among Tory MPs and Conservative-leaning newspapers.
Inevitably, attention has rapidly turned towards Mr Johnson’s future in No 10 and just last night a poll showed that two-thirds of the public (66 per cent) believed he should resign amid the latest allegation of rule-busting parties.
But will Boris Johnson resign? If he admits to MPs he attended the party and broke lockdown rules, he will face immediate calls to step aside for misleading Parliament from opposition parties.
Just yesterday Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, also warned: “If he [the PM] has breached his own guidance, if he has not been truthful, then it is an extremely important issue.” He added: “If the prime minister has misled Parliament, then he must resign”.
But the prime minister could reach for the increasingly farcical defence that he cannot comment on the allegations until Ms Gray’s inquiry concludes. The results of this probe (no timetable has been set out publicly) will be crucial for Mr Johnson’s future. If it finds he broke lockdown rules at the No 10 gathering, calls for his resignation will grow further.
On Wednesday morning, the backbench Conservative MP, Nigel Mills, said his position would be “untenable” and it would be a resigning mater if he was found to be at the May 2020 event. Perhaps, but any frequent observer of Johnson’s administration might point to the prime minister’s reluctance to sack his own ministers for breaches of the ministerial code and could attempt to ride out the storm.
It also remains to be seen whether the Metropolitan Police launches a formal investigation into rule-breaking in No 10. After reports emerged on Monday of the 20 May 2020 gathering, the force said it was “in contact” with the Cabinet Office over “alleged breaches of the Health Protection Regulations at Downing Street”.
Ministers have previously said the inquiry by Ms Gray will be “paused” if the Met does formally investigate. But even if the force does opt for this route and wrong-doing is found, it is by no means certain Mr Johnson will step down as prime minister.
There are many different routes towards a potential resignation, but just two years after winning a thumping majority at a general election, he is unlikely to resign on his own accord. As Conservative commentators have previously highlighted, the party has a brutal record of deposing of leaders it no longer sees an electoral asset, and a forced exit could the most probable route for any resignation.
Either the cabinet could launch a full-scale revolt with senior ministers telling the prime minister to stand down (perhaps unlikely) or the key would be for 15 per cent of the Conservative Party’s MPs to submit a letter of no confidence in the prime minister to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the influential 1922 committee of backbench Tories.
The number of letters submitted at any given point is a closely guarded secret by Sir Graham, but if the required number is reached, it would trigger a vote of confidence in Mr Johnson and his premiership would be on the line. Theresa May, whose premiership was dealt a terminal blow by her ill-fated election gamble, survived a confidence vote in December 2018 but eventually resigned six months later.
For the time being, however, only one Tory MP has publicly said they have had submitted a letter and Mr Johnson’s allies are adamant he is “going nowhere”, with a minister insisting just yesterday: “The prime minister retains the confidence of the people of this country and he did so two years ago with the biggest majority in decades”.
