Rishi Sunak’s new Rwanda legislation has been given only a “50 per cent at best” chance of successfully getting flights in the air, according to an official legal assessment for the government.
Cabinet minister Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, is said to have been told that the bill leaves a significant risk of the European Court of Human Rights blocking flights.
Mr Sunak now faces an ever tougher battle to get divided Tory MPs to back his bill at a crucial vote in parliament on Tuesday, with both right-wingers and moderates unhappy with the legislative plan.
It comes as senior Tory Robert Jenrick – who quit as immigration minister over the legislation – has insisted it will fail and accused Mr Sunak of failing to keep his word “to do whatever it takes” to “stop the boats”.
Going further than his resignation letter, Mr Jenrick also explicitly called for Britain to quit international treaties such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in an article for The Telegraph.
The hardliner called for the UK to “extricate” itself from “complex international frameworks” – warning the Tories of the “red-hot fury” of voters if the party fails on immigration.
Mr Sunak is fighting to convince Conservative MPs not to rebel in Tuesday’s crunch vote as he seeks to pass a new legislation in response to the Supreme Court ruling the Rwanda scheme is unlawful.
Dozens of MPs on the right want Mr Sunak to go further in disapplying the ECHR. They are also angry that asylum seekers will be able to lodge legal challenges against their deportation based on individual circumstances.
Rishi Sunak claimed Tuesday’s vote would not be a ‘confidence’ issue in government
The hardline faction – including members of the 35-strong New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group and the European Research Group – are discussing legal advice from its “star chamber” this weekend.
More moderate Tories in the One Nation’ group – which boasts around 100 MPs – are concerned about telling courts they must find that the East African nation is “safe”. They are also discussing independent legal advice this weekend.
Failure to win Tuesday’s vote could plunge Mr Sunak’s leadership into a fresh crisis. The PM took the middle option by choosing to disapply parts of the Human Rights Act with his bill rather than the European convention.
Mr Sunak was warned that he could even face a leadership vote soon if he “antagonised” more MPs into submitting no-confidence letters. Some MPs claimed almost two dozen letters have already been submitted to the Tories’ all-powerful 1922 Committee – which requires 53 of them to hold a vote on his future.
Ministers are calling round MPs in a desperate bid to get backing on Tuesday. Tory deputy chairman Rachel Maclean has said the Rwanda vote will amount to a vote of confidence in the government.
Former cabinet minister David Davis told The Independent he will vote for the Rwanda bill and expects it to get through the Commons on Tuesday. “Anything else would be madness,” he said.
Robert Jenrick has warned of ‘red-hot fury’ of Tory voters
No 10 and the Conservative whips are still hopeful the bill will pass its first hurdle on Tuesday. But Tory rebels on both sides of the row are expected to launch attempts to amend the bill in January – when the government stands a greater risk of defeat.
Mr Sunak faces the prospect of Tory MPs voting against or abstaining on the bill if their attempts to toughen up the bill – or water it down – fail early next year. It would take just 29 rebel Tories to defeat the government and through Mr Sunak’s premiership into crisis.
Veteran Tory MP Henry Smith told The Independent if the government fails to pass the bill it is the “end of the line” for the Conservatives.
New legal migration minister Tom Pursglove suggested the government would “engage constructively” and could be open to compromises with would-be rebels in the weeks ahead.
Rishi Sunak is hoping to survive immediate crisis by get bill through first stage on Tuesday
Ms Prentis’ legal advice, warning of a 50-50 chance of success, centres around the European court in Strasbourg, according to The Times. The court which oversees the ECHR, and helped block flights by granting an interim injunction as it did in June last year.
There appears to be disagreement over whether ignoring such injunctions would be a breach of the ECHR. The advice from the Government Legal Department was said to have been signed off by top lawyer Sir James Eadie.
Not disputing the advice, a government official said: “We do not comment on or share government legal advice and it would be very wrong for anyone recently departing government to do so.
They added: “Ministers are reassured that this Bill goes as far as it can within international law and therefore ensures we can get flights off to Rwanda next year.”
One source backed up the report, while another sought to argue the advice was just one of the opinions the government had sought.
Former Solicitor General Lord Garnier – who is advising the One Nation group – told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the bill was “political nonsense and legal nonsense”.
“It’s trying to define things when there is no evidence for that being the case,” said the influential figure. “It’s rather like a bill that has decided that all dogs are cats.”
In his op-ed on Saturday, Mr Jenrick said “some of the country’s finest legal minds” have determined that migrants will be able to lodge legal appeals and that they could be “taken off flights in considerable number”.
Sacked home secretary Suella Braverman has led criticism of Sunak’s plan
The ally of sacked home secretary Suella Braverman added: “The idea, therefore, that this bill will guarantee all those arriving are detained and swiftly removed is for the birds.”
Mr Jenrick also said that the Tories will be treated to “red-hot fury at the ballot box” unless they bring down current levels of legal immigration – which he argued makes integration into UK life “impossible”.
He also revealed that he wanted to go further in the recent crackdown on legal migration routes by overhauling the two-year graduate visa route. “Too many universities have fallen into the migration, rather than education business,” he said.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith has urged Tory MPs to pass a bill that “get those flights off to Rwanda” – stopping short of an endorsement for the legislation in its current form.
The former Tory leader told The Telegraph: “The reality is that we are in a more febrile state than under [Sir] John Major. John Major took us to the election.”
And Dominic Raab, the former justice secretary, said MPs “should back the bill, rather than let the best be the enemy of the good” – urging rebels to “tighten up” the legislation at committee stage rather than vote it down on Tuesday.
It also emerged that the UK has paid an additional £100m on top of the £140m already paid to Rwanda for the deportation pact. And the government to send an additional £50m next year – which means the total cost so far has more than doubled to hit £290m.
Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper slammed the “incredible” costs. “How many more blank cheques will Rishi Sunak write before the Tories come clean about this scheme being a total farce?”
Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office, will be grilled by the public accounts select committee on Monday.
The Home Office is set to publish an evidence pack next week that will reportedly reject the UN’s refugee agency UNHCR’s claim that Rwanda is an unsafe country.
