Conservative MPs are increasingly gloomy about their chances of avoiding a humiliating triple defeat at this week’s byelections – warning that a wipe-out will leave Rishi Sunak facing another round of infighting.
Many Tories now expect defeat in all three of the contests – Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton and Frome – sparked by Boris Johnson’s departure and the exit of David Warburton after his admission to taking cocaine.
“We’ll lose all three,” one Tory MP told The Independent. “Most people are resigned to it. Oddly Uxbridge might be the least bad due to the Ulez issue.”
Another Tory source said that if all three are lost everyone in the party would be in a “bloody bad mood” over parliament’s summer recess and will spend it calling for various changes from Mr Sunak.
Labour still faces a huge challenge in taking Johnson loyalist Nigel Adams’ seat in Selby and Ainsty, which the Tories won by 20,000 votes in 2019 – but the party is quietly confident of a new record for Labour overturning a Tory majority.
One senior Tory MP said they would lose Selby, but believes Uxbridge could still be won because of anger over Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra-low emission zone charges to outer London. “It’s not only a referendum on the government, but on the mayor, Ulez and crime.”
But others in the Tory party think the recent optimism that Mr Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge can be held – despite a majority of only 7,000 and anger at the former PM – is misplaced ahead of the contests on Thursday.
“I don’t think Ulez has cut through enough in Uxbridge – we’re losing that one,” said a Tory source. “We could lose all three, but there’s an expectation management game doing on. Selby can still be held, it’s 50/50.”
Tory peer Lord Hayward, the leading elections expert, also played down the Tories’ chances of clinging on in Mr Johnson’s old seat in north-west London, despite recent frustration over the Ulez scheme.
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves campaigning in Uxbridge
“In Uxbridge, the expectation is that the Conservatives need to keep Labour’s majority down – not that they will win,” the peer told The Independent.
The polling guru was also downbeat on the party’s chances in Selby. “A Labour person told me they think they have a better chance in Selby than Uxbridge. Labour believe they will win in Selby. And the Lib Dems are even more confident in Somerton and Frome.”
The Liberal Democrats are optimistic of overturning a 19,000 to take the south-west seat. But a Lib Dem source insisted the result could be “very tight”, as the party continues to appeal to Labour and Green supporters to consider tactical voting.
Lord Hayward added that the by-elections were a chance for voters to express their “anger over the events of the past year” – including Partygate and the disastrous mini-Budget.
“If the party lose all three, it’ll be viewed as part of the mid-term blues. I don’t see a rise in anger in the party against Sunak – but it will add to the sense of anguish and malaise.”
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey campaigning in Nadine Dorries’ Mid-Bedfordshire seat
However, some have warned the knives could be out for Mr Sunak if he loses all three by-elections. “I think for a lot of my colleagues this would be the final straw,” one senior Tory told The Express.
“Everybody says you can’t change leaders with a year to go before the election – but what do you do when you have a leader who is not cutting the mustard?”
Mr Sunak is expected to face various calls for a change in direction if the results go as badly as feared – including calls for tax cuts and a push from the right on immigration.
MPs in the New Conservatives group will be pushing for the housing of migrants on remote Scottish islands, according to the Sunday Times – but a source close to the group rubbished the claim.
The newspaper reported that the PM will try to change course by engaging in sharper “war on woke” attacks on Labour and offer more “retail” policies beyond his five big pledges when parliament returns in autumn.
Mr Sunak also faces some bad timing ahead of the three contests. Wednesday sees the latest inflation figures published, which could spark fresh anxiety over the stubborn persistence of the problem and lack of expected economic progress in 2023.
Cabinet minister Kemi Badenoch appeared to play down the Tory party’s chances on 20 July, telling Sky News on Sunday that it was “understandable” if the party in power was “not necessarily winning by-elections”.
It comes as Labour sends its “big beasts” to Selby over the next 48 hours in a bid to get a historic result over the line. Several senior shadow cabinet ministers – including Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper and Lisa Nandy – are expected to campaign in the area.
