The rejection of Rishi Sunak’s latest Rwanda bill will plunge his premiership into turmoil.
The prime minister has denied that tonight’s result amounts to a vote of confidence in his leadership – but senior Tories have said otherwise.
Of his five key pledges to the nation, the promise to “stop the boats” has taken up the most political capital.
And MPs who support the Rwanda plan – which would see asylum seekers who arrive in the UK via “irregular routes” such as small boat crossings – believe it is a necessary deterrent.
After it was struck down as unlawful by the Supreme Court, Mr Sunak published new planned legislation, entitled the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which would deem Rwanda safe in British law.
It will be voted on in the House of Commons this evening and faces being the first bill defeated at its second reading since Margaret Thatcher’s 1986 Shops Bill – which would have ended the regulation of Sunday shopping in England and Wales.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces another long and difficult day, as he bids to see of a major rebellion
Who is opposing the bill?
The so-called “five families” groups of backbench Tory MPs pose the biggest threat to the bill’s passage.
The European Research Group (ERG), New Conservatives, Conservative Growth Group, Common Sense Group, and Northern Research Group have commissioned a “star chamber” of lawyers to determine whether it goes far enough to ensure flights to Rwanda get off the ground.
The groups fear that in its current form, the bill would see the policy undermined by a stream of individual court appeals against deportation flights.
The ERG, which commissioned the star chamber, said the group only “provides a partial and incomplete solution” and called on Mr Sunak to “pull the bill”.
Mr Sunak met with a group of Tory MPs from the right of the party on Tuesday morning to convince them over breakfast to vote for the bill
Mr Sunak met for breakfast with a group of Tory MPs from the right of the party on Tuesday morning in a desperate bid to convince them to vote for the bill.
Do they have the numbers?
If 29 Tory MPs vote against the bill it will fail, so yes – many more MPs than that have expressed their concerns.
But the right-wing groups have not publicly pledged to vote it down, with many planning to let it go through its second reading before trying to introduce amendments later.
Abstentions could also see the law chucked out if 57 Conservative MPs decide to vote neither for or against the bill.
What happens if Mr Sunak loses?
The PM’s ability to govern would be shot and he could either quit, contest a Tory leadership challenge or go to the country by calling a general election.
If Mr Sunak quits or choses to fight a leadership contest, challengers would likely include former immigration ministers Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick. Others courting votes on the right of the party could include business secretary Kemi Badenoch and leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt.
Most Tory MPs are resigned to Mr Sunak leading the party into the next election, which is expected at some point next year. Yet another change of leader would see the fourth prime minister installed since Boris Johnson won the last election in 2019. The clamour for a general election would be immense.
Some in the party, including senior MP Charles Walker, believe Mr Sunak would have to go to the country, adding that the prospect of a third Tory leadership contest in this parliament “leaves me cold”.
If Mr Sunak goes straight to the country, he could fight the election on his promise to take tough action to “stop the boats”, using illegal immigration to draw a dividing line with the Labour Party. A win would give a strong democratic mandate to the Rwanda plan, which did not form part of the last Conservative manifesto.
But with his party 20 points behind in the polls, a general election is likely to be a situation Mr Sunak will want to avoid.
Can he defuse the rebellion?
It is unlikely. If the bill passes its second reading tonight with the support of would-be right wing rebels, they will quickly turn their energy to seeking amendments.
But any major changes pose two risks for the PM.
One is that the Rwandan government has been clear with the UK that if the bill goes any further in disregarding international laws, it will pull out.
Any amendments could also see the 100-strong One Nation group turn their backs on the bill, which would see it fall at a future vote.
What if the bill gets through the commons?
The bill would still face many hurdles, even if MPs approve it tonight. It will face rounds of discussion and debate, as well as a tricky passage through the Lords.
And the Labour party has confirmed it will scrap the Rwandan deportation policy, meaning that if it fails to turn Tory fortunes around, it would have a limited time in force anyway.
