A Power Vacuum in Gaza Could Empower Warlords and Gangs

Since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, the war in Gaza has been dogged by a persistent question: What happens after the conflict ends?

Recent events point to one worrying scenario: Gaza, without a centralized governing authority, could be dominated by warlords and organized crime.

Wartime is notorious for giving rise to black markets and criminal gangs, and the conflict in Gaza is no exception. In one troubling episode in November, armed gunmen looted a convoy of 109 United Nations aid trucks. Over the last year, a contraband trade in tobacco has become a particular problem for humanitarian aid convoys, with organized gangs ransacking aid shipments for cigarettes smuggled inside them that can sell for $25 to $30 each.

The Israeli military is determined to wipe out Hamas, but Israel has not laid out a plan for the day after the conflict stops. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has resisted calls for the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza.

Hamas was a repressive regime that used violence against its own people. But because it also ran the local government in Gaza, its weakened condition threatens to leave the territory without any governing institutions.

Such power vacuums create ideal conditions for so-called criminal governance, in which criminal mafias, sometimes linked to families or tribes, take over much of the traditional role of a government within their territories, competing with weak official institutions. It may even devolve into outright warlordism, in which territory is carved up between armed groups into self-governing fiefdoms.