Tuesday’s primary election will probably decide whether there will be a race at all.
Let’s be blunt about the stakes of the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
If Donald J. Trump wins decisively, as the polls suggest, he will be on track to win the Republican nomination without a serious contest. The race will be all but over.
The backdrop is simple: Mr. Trump holds a dominant, 50-plus-point lead in the polls with just seven weeks to go until the heart of the primary season, when the preponderance of delegates will be awarded. His position has only improved since Iowa, with national polls now routinely showing him with over 70 percent of the vote.
Even skeptical Republican officials are consolidating behind the party’s front-runner. Ron DeSantis’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Mr. Trump is only the latest example.
The polling by state isn’t much better for Nikki Haley, the only remaining opponent for Mr. Trump. He leads Ms. Haley by at least 30 points in all of the states after New Hampshire until Super Tuesday. So without a monumental shift in the race, he will secure the nomination in short order.
In states with three or more polls in the last three months.
*The 2016 California primary was held after Donald Trump was the presumptive nominee; moderate-establishment candidates include Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina. The states shown here are those with 2024 contests held on Super Tuesday or earlier.
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Source: Elections - nytimes.com
