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Andrew Feinberg
White House Correspondent
Sir Ed Davey is expected to lay out his plan to overtake the Tories at the next general election and “finish the job” his party believe they started this year.
The triumphant Liberal Democrat leader, now heading a group of 72 MPs, will use much of his party conference speech in Brighton to focus on the Conservatives and their leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak, which Sir Ed has described as “scraping the bottom of the barrel”.
Sir Ed – who has become well known for his colourful stunts – will also focus on key priorities of the NHS and social care, and will insist that his party’s success in July means that it has to justify its actions to the voters.
“The modern Conservative Party is so out of touch with so many of its former voters – so far removed from the real lives of ordinary people – that it no longer merits a place at the top table of our politics,” he is expected to say. “On 4 July we made a great start, but now let’s go further. Let’s finish the job.”
It comes as senior sources in the party have made it clear that while the Lib Dems outperformed their wildest dreams in this year’s election, they have “far from maxed out” in taking seats from the Conservatives, who were reduced to a historic low of 121 seats.
Other sources pointed out to The Independent that the Lib Dems came second in 27 seats – 21 of which are held by the Conservatives.
He will say: “We asked people for their votes on a very clear manifesto. We told them we would focus on their priorities. Getting our economy back on track and getting the cost of living under control. Ending the sewage scandal and protecting our precious environment. And above all: fixing the NHS and care crisis. A clear message of hope.”
But while criticising the “gloom and doom” of Sir Keir Starmer’s government, he is set to spend more time talking about what is left of the Tory party.
In the run-up to July’s election, Sir Ed is understood to have thought that winning 45 to 50 seats would amount to an exceptional night for the Lib Dems, but was amazed to see them take 72, the most in more than a century.
Party sources said senior figures realised they were destined to outperform expectations after the Somerton and Frome by-election, which the Lib Dems won from the Conservatives in July 2023. “That was the point when we realised just how much trouble the Conservatives were in, and how weak their vote had become in some places,” one senior figure said.
Shortly after that turning point by-election, top officials met over Mexican food at Burrito Boi in Frome to work out how to double the number of target seats for July’s contest.
Turning their attention to the next election, their focus remains on the Tories, as 39 out of their top 50 target seats are still held by the Conservatives.
Sir Ed is understood to be buoyed by data that shows that many of those who switched their votes from the Tories to the Lib Dems say they will never vote Conservative again.
In a surprise twist, Lib Dem MPs Tim Farron and Josh Babarinde told a fringe event on Sunday night that many Reform voters were actually choosing between Reform and the Lib Dems. Mr Farron said: “It shows that Reform voters will not just go back to the Tories, and many of them could come over to us.”
The Lib Dems also believe the Conservatives are in a perilous position with their long, drawn-out leadership contest, which could cement the party’s decline if they get it wrong.
As the Lib Dem conference took place, Tory leadership contender Tom Tugendhat put out polling that showed he had a +16 rating among Lib Dem voters.
The two favourites in the contest, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, were at -6 and -22 respectively. One Lib Dem MP said: “The champagne corks will be flying in Lib Dem HQ if Kemi Badenoch wins.”
Sir Ed now believes his party has gone from a position where it was fighting for survival to potentially pushing out the Tories.
Urging his party to step up, he will say: “The Conservatives showed themselves to be totally unfit to govern our country – and the British people rightly booted them out. Now they are already showing that they are unfit for opposition, too.
“It’s hardly surprising, I suppose. Expecting that lot to hold the government to account on the NHS or the economy would be like putting a bull in charge of repairing the china shop.
“Who would leave the job of upholding ethical standards in government to the gang who put Boris Johnson in No 10? And when the country needs an opposition to scrutinise next month’s Budget, surely it’s not a job for the Tory geniuses who cheered Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to the rafters.”
Referring to the Conservative leadership candidates, Sir Ed is expected to say: “Just look at the quartet heading to Birmingham in a fortnight to audition for the job of Conservative leader. They really are scraping the bottom of the barrel, aren’t they?”
