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Andrew Feinberg
White House Correspondent
If another referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was held today it would result in Brexit being reversed, according to a new poll.
A clear majority of all voters say they would opt to rejoin the EU.
Strikingly, support for overturning the UK’s decision to cut its ties with Brussels among Generation Z – who were too young to take part in the 2016 referendum – is by a two-to-one margin.
The public thinks Brexit has made almost everything worse, from the economy to immigration, cost of living, NHS, wages, exports and Britain’s standing abroad to hopes of keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the union.
While Brexit has slipped in the league table of public concerns, a second referendum is seen as likely at some point.
The findings of a survey by Redfield & Wilton follow moves by Sir Keir Starmer to boost Britain’s connections with the EU.
Despite having been a strong opponent of Brexit, the prime minister has made it clear he has no intention of reviewing the decision based on a 52-48 majority in the referendum eight years ago.
Speaking to reporters in Wales, two days before July’s general election, Sir Kier said: “I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market, or the customs union, or returning to freedom of movement.
“I’ve been equally clear that I do think we can get a better deal than the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson – on the trading front, on research and development, and on security.”
Sir Keir’s supporters say a second referendum would be divisive and a distraction from his main target of repairing public finances and public services.
Other prominent Labour figures have been more outspoken.
In an interview with The Independent editor-in-chief Geordie Greig, former prime minister Sir Tony Blair said Brexit had failed and triggered “unprecedented mass immigration”.
The Redfield & Wilton survey gives fresh ammunition to those who say Brexit has not been a success.
A total of 56 per cent say they would vote to rejoin the EU if another referendum were to be staged today.
This includes nearly one in four (23 per cent) of those who voted Leave in 2016.
A total of 44 per cent say they would vote to stay out. This includes 17 per cent who voted Remain eight years ago.
In fact, the number wishing to rejoin has been even higher in the past. It has fallen by five per cent since June, before the election took place.
Among 18- to 24-year-olds, which includes Gen Z, a total of 61 per cent would vote to rejoin. Only 28 per cent would vote to stay out.
There is similar backing for re-entering the EU among 25- to 44-year-olds. Support for staying out of the EU is most prominent among the over-55s.
More than half (52 per cent) of voters want another Brexit referendum within five years, including 73 per cent of those who backed Remain in 2016.
A total of 34 per cent are opposed to a second referendum.
For the first time since Redfield & Wilton began conducting such polls in 2021, voters think another referendum is likely in the next 10 years.
A total of 34 per cent said they expect a second referendum within a decade; 31 per cent disagreed.
Regardless of whether people want another referendum, they overwhelmingly believe things in Britain have deteriorated as a direct consequence of Brexit – right across the board.
Asked whether the economy is stronger or weaker than it otherwise would be had Brexit not occurred, 43 per cent said it is weaker; 22 per cent said it is stronger.
When questions were couched in similar terms on a wide range of other issues, it produced the same picture of a Brexit-induced decline:
- 39 per cent said immigration is higher because of Brexit against 21 per cent who said it is lower
- 58 per cent said the cost of living is higher against 18 per cent who said it is lower
- 31 per cent said wages are lower against 18 per cent who said they are higher
- 41 per cent said it had made it harder for Britain to sell goods abroad against 17 per cent who said it had made it easier
- 40 per cent said Britain had less influence on the world stage against 21 per cent who said it had more
Revealingly, the survey suggests voters believe they were misled by Brexiteers like Boris Johnson, who famously toured the nation in a red bus emblazoned with a slogan stating the NHS would get an extra £350m per week once the UK left the EU.
A total of 45 per cent say the NHS has got worse thanks to Brexit against just 13 per cent who say it has improved.
Asked whether Brexit had had a negative or positive effect on the UK so far, 34 per cent said it was negative against 31 per cent who said it was positive.
By a small margin, voters think Brexit has made it more likely that Scotland will become independent at some stage and that Northern Ireland will join the Republic of Ireland.
Notwithstanding the mainly downbeat poll verdict on Brexit, 35 per cent said it had given the UK more say over its affairs against 30 per cent who said the country had less say, in line with the Brexiteers’ “take back control” mantra.
And fewer than one in four regard Brexit as an “extremely” important issue.
Furthermore, although its current impact is viewed as negative, 38 per cent said they believe Brexit would have a positive outcome for Britain in future against 33 per cent who said it would be negative.
A total of 44 per cent said they viewed the 2016 referendum as the last word on Brexit against 40 per cent who said they did not believe it settled the matter.
Philip van Scheltinga, of Redfield & Wilton, said: “The poll numbers are certainly favourable for ‘rejoin’ but they do not suggest a slam dunk.
“While voters are mostly disappointed by Brexit, they have other priorities in mind.
“It’s up to the government to judge whether seeking to change the UK’s relationship with the EU is aligned with those higher priorities.”
Mr Van Scheltinga questioned whether Sir Keir would want to use his “hard-earned political capital” on reopening the Brexit debate and running the risk of getting “seriously bogged down” by it.
Redfield & Wilton interviewed 2,000 adults in Britain online on 19 August.
