Sir Keir Starmer is set to be prime minister for a decade, Tory supporters want Nigel Farage to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader and many of them fear their party faces extinction.
These are among the shock findings of an exclusive poll for The Independent by Redfield and Wilton.
It shows that 45 per cent of all voters believe Labour will win not just this election but the next one too. With a parliamentary term lasting up to five years that could see Sir Keir retaining the Downing Street keys until around 2034.
Only 19 per cent of the public do not expect Labour to record two successive victories.
The poll makes depressing reading for Mr Sunak – but indicates that the rise of Mr Farage, bidding to win his first Commons seat, also has serious implications for Labour.
He is the clear choice of both the public, and crucially Conservative supporters, to be next Tory leader if as expected the party loses on July 4 and Mr Sunak resigns.
Asked to choose a successor from a list comprising the six current Tory leadership favourites and the Reform Party leader, Mr Farage wins among both groups.
Only Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt runs him close.
Among the electorate as a whole, 19 per cent want Mr Farage as next Conservative leader, followed by Ms Mordaunt on 15 per cent. None of James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Priti Patel and Robert Jenrick polled more than six per cent.
Mr Farage is even further ahead with those who voted Conservative in 2019. A total of 22 per cent of this group want him to be next Tory leader, with Ms Mordaunt on 16 per cent and the rest way behind.
There are at least two notable practical obstacles to Mr Farage becoming Tory leader: he is currently the leader of a rival party and therefore unable to stand and has yet to become an MP.
However, he has talked publicly in recent days of the possibility of “taking over” the party he left more than 30 years ago to form UKIP, the predecessor of Reform.
A significant chunk of the Conservative faithful appear to think their Party is doomed.
One in three (32 per cent) of those who voted for it in the last election think it will cease to exist in its present form within ten years.
Nearly one in two (46 per cent) of this group are more optimistic and think it will recover.
The wider public is more sceptical of the Conservative Party’s long term prospects. A total of 37 per cent who took part in the survey said it will survive more or less as it is today; 35 per cent said it will not.
Equally alarming for Mr Sunak is that, assuming Sir Keir wins power, 42 per cent of 2019 Tory voters want Mr Farage’s Reform Party to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour. A total of 31 per cent of these voters want the Tories to remain the main opposition to Labour.
Among the whole electorate: 37 per cent want the Reform Party to replace the Tories as the main counter to Labour; 40 per cent do not favour this.
While the likelihood of Mr Farage becoming Conservative leader seems remote – in the near future at least – British politics is in such a state of flux that further dramatic changes cannot be ruled out.
Despite the widespread view that Sir Keir is on course for victory, it seems he will be given little personal credit for it.
Nearly half (49 per cent) of all voters said a Labour triumph would be the result of ‘Tory failures’; 18 per cent said ‘Labour policies’ should be credited; just one in seven (14 per cent) said it would be the fruit of Sir Keir’s leadership.
Moreover the poll indicates Labour could also be vulnerable to the potential rise of Mr Farage.
In findings which may surprise and worry senior Labour figures, a total of 39 per cent of this group of Labour supporters said Mr Farage’s immigration stance is ‘generally right;’ a total of 40 per cent said it is ‘generally wrong.’
Nearly six in ten (59 per cent) of 2019 Labour voters said they agree with Mr Farage’s controversial claim that ‘a growing number of young British Muslims do not subscribe to British values.’ Only 12 per cent disagreed.
A total of 54 per cent of these Labour voters endorsed Mr Farage’s equally provocative statement that ‘there are streets in Britain where no one speaks English.’ One in three (32 per cent) of this group disagreed.
Among the broader population Mr Farage’s views on these topics command even greater support according to the poll.
When Mr Sunak, Sir Keir and Mr Farage were pitched against each other in a three way popularity contest covering personal and political qualities, Sir Keir won hands down, coming first in 13 of 14 categories, from the NHS and economy to charisma.
The Labour leader’s sole defeat was by Mr Farage in the ‘stop the boats’ category. Mr Sunak did not win a single category – and was beaten by Mr Farage on nine counts including ‘stands up for the little guy’; ‘courageous’ and ‘would win TV debate.’
Redfield and Wilton interviewed 2,000 adults online on June 5 and 6.
Here is a breakdown of the statistics:
Highlights of Redfield and Wilton poll for the Independent:
(All figs in percentages)
Is Labour likely to win next two elections? (All voters)
Yes 45.
No 19.
Neither/don’t know 36.
If Labour wins on July 4 what will be main reason? (All voters)
Tory failures – 49.
Labour policies – 18.
Starmer leadership – 14.
Other/don’t know – 19.
Will Conservative Party exist in current form in ten years? (All voters, 2019 Con voters)
Yes 37, 46.
No 35, 32.
Don’t know 28, 22.
Who should be next Tory leader? (All voters, Con 2019 voters)
Nigel Farage 19, 22.
Penny Mordaunt 15, 16.
James Cleverly, 6, 6.
Kemi Badenoch 5, 7.
Suella Braverman 4, 6.
Priti Patel 2, 4.
Robert Jenrick 1, 1.
Other/don’t know 48, 38.
Should Reform Party replace Conservatives as main opposition to Labour? (All voters, 2019 Con voters)
Yes 37, 42.
No 30, 31.
Neither/don’t know 33, 27.
Is Farage right or wrong on immigration? (All voters, 2019 Labour voters)
Generally right 40, 39.
Generally wrong 30, 40.
Don’t know 30, 21.
Do you agree/disagree with the statement: ‘A growing number of young British Muslims no longer subscribe to British values (all voters, 2019 Lab voters)
Agree 63, 59.
Disagree 10, 12.
Neither don’t know 27, 29.
Is the following statement true or false: ‘There are some streets in Britain where no English is spoken.’ (All voters, 2019 Lab voters)
True 59, 54.
False 27, 32.
Don’t know 14, 14.
