Rishi Sunak ended months of speculation on Wednesday and announced a General Election on 4 July.
The prime minister, outside the steps of 10 Downing Street in the pouring rain, said: “Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future.”
However, research has suggested the Labour Party has consistently been ahead in opinion polls. On average, Labour is on 44 points, 21 ahead of the Conservatives.
Britain’s leading election expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives face a “major challenge” to hold on to power and that the election is “for Labour to win”.
The Tories may also face more challenges with undecided voters and tactical voting.
Recent polling by Best for Britain showed in some constituencies, 36 per cent of people are undecided. It also identified 510 “tactical voting seats” where the Tories are vulnerable to losing.
But what exactly is tackle voting and how influential will it be in the General Election?
Tactical voting
Tactical voting is when someone votes for a party or candidate which isn’t their first choice.
It is a way of strategically voting, so that a person’s least-preferred party doesn’t win.
It tends to apply in constituencies where two candidates are close in numbers, and significantly out in front of their opponents.
For example, if someone is a Labour supporter but the Liberal Democrats may have a better chance of beating their least-preferred party – in this case the Conservatives – then they would tactically vote Lib Dem.
Does tactical voting work?
In a marginal seat, tactical voting can work.
For example, the Constituency of Stroud in the South West of England has historically been a close fight between Labour and the Conservatives.
In the 2017 election Labour won 47 per cent of the vote while the Tories came second with 46 per cent.
According to campaigning group Tactical Vote, some of Labour’s votes in the Stroud constituency likely came from Liberal Democrat and Green supporters who received fewer votes in 2017 than they had in previous elections.
Labour also won more votes than ever before in this seat.
What impact will tactical voting have on the 2024 General Election?
Polling experts have said an increase in tactical voting is “bad news for the Conservative Party”, but there may still be some three-way marginal seats between the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at leading polling consultancy Savanta,told The Independent: “Voters have got increasingly sophisticated in understanding how in a first past the post system, their vote can be as effective as possible.
“In particular this is bad news for the Conservative Party, where there will be plenty of natural Labour supporters in the the South West who will back the Lib Dems, as they know they are their best chance of getting rid of the Tories.
“That being said, because of the forecasted size of the swing from Conservative to Labour, there are some three-way marginals where Labour and the Lib Dems may be unwilling to step aside. That could mean voters are told different things about who is ‘most likely to win here’, and could lead to split, enabling some Conservative MPs to hold on.”
Campaigners have also added tactical voting will help deliver a “progressive government”, but warned the first-past-the-post system (FPTP) must be changed to better represent voting intentions.
Neal Lawson, executive director at Compass, told The Independent:“We desperately need a progressive government, and tactical voting will no doubt play a vital role in helping to deliver one – but voting tactically without conditions only entrenches the pendulum politics that grinds us all down and alienates voters from the political process.
“The worry is that without a commitment to changing the system, tactical voting enshrines the abusive nature of First Past the Post and forces voters to continue voting tactically for ever more.
“If Labour does win the next election on the back of lent votes, they should commit to getting rid of FPTP and replacing it with a system that can better represent the progressive majority that already exists in this country.”
Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain and founder of tactical voting platform, GetVoting.org, said: “Our polling shows 13 million Brits are ready to vote tactically for change, and these voters will be key to a defeat that would keep the Tories out for a decade and the difference between deliverance or defeat for the likes of Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Liz Truss.
“Best for Britain will be helping voters get it right at GetVoting.org with expert constituency level insights and voting recommendations before polling day.”
