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Are the Democrats Dead or Alive?

In the immediate aftermath of the 2024 election, polls and focus groups suggested that the Democratic Party had suffered more than an election defeat. It looked as though key blocs of voters had irrevocably turned their backs on Democrats as triumphalist Republicans boasted about becoming the party of the working class.

In the six months since President Trump took back the Oval Office, his favorability ratings, including on immigration, have fallen, but his decline has not been accompanied by a revival of support for the Democratic Party. The party continues to suffer severe reputational damage, which may not be reparable until 2028, when the Democratic presidential nominee will have a chance to redefine the party’s image as only a party leader can.

Before exploring the dark side for Democrats, let’s first acknowledge three bright spots.

One, prospective Democrats who are jockeying for early position and recognition in the party’s presidential nomination contest are moving toward the center. As Adam Wren and Elena Schneider report in “The Great Un-Awokening,” a June 6 piece in Politico, “Searching for a path out of the political wilderness, potential 2028 candidates, especially those hailing from blue states, are attempting to ratchet back a leftward lurch on social issues that some in the party say cost them the November election.”

Wren and Schneider cite Gov. Gavin Newsom’s break with progressive orthodoxy when he declared that allowing transgender athletes to participate in female college sports was “unfair.” They also cite Gov. Wes Moore’s veto of “a bill that took steps toward reparations.”

Two, there has been a burst of activity, including the formation of groups on the center left seeking a more moderate Democratic agenda, including Searchlight, led by Adam Jentleson, a former aide to Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, and Harry Reid, a former Senate majority leader. In addition, there is growing interest in Welcome PAC, a centrist Democratic group founded in 2021 that has contributed to moderate House Democrats like Jared Golden, Mary Peltola and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

Three, Democratic voters are far more enthusiastic heading into the 2026 election than Republicans are. A July 10-13 CNN poll found that 74 percent of Democrats described themselves as “extremely motivated” to vote next year, compared with 54 percent of Republicans, as are 75 percent of liberals compared with 52 percent of conservatives.

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Source: Elections - nytimes.com


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